Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If Clover had the manipulative firepower you're suggesting he has to use 'don't townread me' as a way to get townread... then why didn't he just play a game that would get townread in the first place? Occam's Razor suggests he's just town instead of scum who banked on getting townread by telling people to not townread him.

He did play a game that got townread

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

He didn't tell people not to townread him - he told people he was going to take himself out of being on the coalition - he then re-entered the coalition - read his ISO and tell me where he made the leap from

"I'm too scummy to be on the coalition"

to

"I'm now good enough to be on the coalition"

You can't be consistent on one and the other.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I could give you a sensible response to that, but it seems better to let Clover answer that himself.

I did ask him,

he says he joined because you promised to defend him

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Because we were getting close to deadline plus Klick said he could convince people not to vote me and since people don't think Klick is scum I'm very confused how people can think I am.

this is the specific quote

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That seems like a sensible response
With my endorsement he goes from 'a distraction' to 'viable coalition member'

'So when nobody was townreading him - he decided he didn't want to be on the coalition (Which btw he can't be because nobody is townreading him)

and when a leading member of the town began townreading him - he decided he did want to be on the coalition (which btw is now possible because he's being townread)


And that's your basis for why this guy is absolutely definitely town? Like are we even being serious here?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if I'm scum who needs a mis-execute why wouldn't I just hammer koba at L-1 instead of defending him and trying to get you off him?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

it's alright

we'll win next time sleeper. keep your chin up

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

oh so when I'm telling you guys not to lynch koba because I think he's town it's really because I'm scum and trying to get him lynched?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well you seem to think the logic only applies to me and not to clover lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

so when I do something like defend koba it's because I'm cunning scum

when clover does something it's because he's this cherubic noob who's definitely town

why are we even wasting time talking

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

no because you're making it sound like I'm going all in on Clover cuz I need 1 mis-execute to win the game or some bullshit

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote Clover

get him tommorrow for me pls thx. look at his iso its basically contentless.

good luck i tried my best


go town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I really think Pooky is caught scum and one or both of the Clover/SS wagons is an attempt to save him.

this is a new level for crazy

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

What do you guys think of DC's naked vote on Pooky, especially depending on how Pooky flips?

Aldus-scum already preparing for when I flip town rofl

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you know clover is in the coalition right?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

thought about the layout of the game some more and decided to break it down for you guys post-death as you will know my thoughts to be those of a true-townie by the end of today.

I'm pretty sure sleeper and chemist/koba are town - do not lynch these slots under any circumstances - going to Lylo without figuring out scum-on-coalition is pretty much GG.

The scum in the coalition has to be between Klick and Clover - I'm leaning towards it being Clover and Klick is just being the stubborn tunnel-visioned townie - but there is an off chance that I'm wrong about this and Klick is actually the scum and Clover is just being used like a hand-puppet. Either way you guys need to lynch these two to find the scum on the coalition -

If you lynch Klick tommorrow and he flips scum - I think the last scum is either Aldus or Clover - leaning towards Aldus.

If you lynch Clover tommorrow and he flips scum - the last scum is either Klick or Deimos - it's unlikely to be Aldus with Clover because they both feel so passive but this could be a player trait and not based on strategy.

If you lynch Clover tommorrow and he flips town - you must kill Klick immediately the next day - do not let him speak or you are lost - he is very good at this game.

Look very carefully at how Klick approaches tommorrow - he's been in control of large segments of this game - if he suddenly flips his mind about Clover - this is a hint that Clover could be the patsy here.

Klick is the one driving the bus on me today - do not let him dodge responsibility for it tommorrow - somebody needs to step up and take control of the game away from him before the game moves to a state where it's impossible for the town to win.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

btw I think it's funny Clover decided to not even post today when deadline is coming up soon.

Well played guys. Well played.



conveniently not here just like he was conveniently not when Koba was at L-1, when important stuff happens he just clams up and plays turtle mode.

Very thrilling much fun

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Let's talk about the people voting me:

DC: No reasons given - I think he's town who's just given up and doesn't care anymore who gets lynched from the wagon.

Clover: He's scumread me basically the entire game but he's fine putting me on the coalition. Says he didn't want to be on the coalition but ends up on it anyway - which somehow is Klick's top piece of evidence for him being innocent lol. Decides to coast through most of the game barely posting - read his ISO, it's mostly one liners and silly putty. Doesn't show up as Koba is being run up to L-1 to throw in his opinion one way or the other - totally content to coast by and do nothing and let whatever happen to Koba happen. Doesn't show up to the last day of the game where he's the other leading candidate for lynch - this guy's scum playstyle is basically to hide like a turtle - pretend he's innocent and hope you guys buy this act. Non-engagement is literally his play.

Klick: Basically Clover's lawyer at this point - either the most tunneled townie in the game protecting his baby Clover or he's scum pocketing Clover - imo he's just got too much invested in the Clover-Town theory to really step back and take an objective look - I have him as town but could be scum.

Aldus: This guy is another level of crazy from the first three - just read what he posted in the last day, I'll go over it below:

I really think Pooky is caught scum and one or both of the Clover/SS wagons is an attempt to save him.

So SS is trying to rescue ScumPooky by bussing Clover. Also Deimos is trying to rescue ScumPooky by trying to start a wagon against SS. Or they could both be true - I could have 2 scumbuddies who are trying to rescue me! :O This stuff is just nuts.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DonC, Deimos, you guys need to actually try to play this game instead of being dis-engaged and not giving a shit.

Scum are going to win in a cakewalk if town gets led around by its nose like this. If you lynch sleeper after I flip town then it's just a huge lol-throw by the town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and Klick's final case against me saying that I am going for Clover because I need 1 mis-exec is just nonsense.

Why would ScumPooky not just hammer Koba for the Mis-Exec instead of trying to defend him and get Clover lynched instead?

If Clover flips town - Pooky is basically definitely dead on Day 2 since he steered the wagon off Koba and onto Clover an innocent.

If Pooky just hammers Koba there - he doesn't have any issues like that - he's just the last vote on a wagon driven by other people.

So why would scumPooky decide to defend koba and re-aim the wagon at Clover instead and take heat that he doesn't need? not to mention Clover is someone who many believe to be town so whether Pooky can even get Clover lynched in the first place is just insanely difficult.

Klick's "PookyScum is just going all out for 1 mislynch" theory is just utter nonsense and when I call him out on it he immediately switches to this post about

We have 14 hours left. Pooky is at L-1; Sleeper and Clover are at L-3.

We should lynch Pooky unless someone wants to give a really good reason to swap over to another wagon.

So he re-frames the discussion from Pooky vs Clover to Pooky vs No-Lynch since if Pooky doesn't get hammered here - the town misses its lynch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't think Pooky/Wug is an incompatible team. The Wug push post-coalition was silly and was never going to get off the ground, and I think scum!Pooky is aware of that.
Pooky didn't really defend Koba with much conviction.

This is nonsense.

Saying Pooky didn't defend Koba with conviction is a joke.

How much did Clover defend Koba with? Nothing he was just coveniently AWOL.

I'm literally the only person defending Koba at that point in the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I can't believe I'm still efforting this game

most of you probably don't even read my posts.

Clover didn't even bother to show up today to defend himself because apparently only I get questions and attacks thrown at me while he can just waltz through the game humming showtunes or some nonsense.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

anyway I'm sorry I sound bitter

I just feel like this game has had a lot of swings - from the initial excitement of picking a coalition to win- to the rollercoaster koba replace in fight - and now the end of the day and I'm going to get lynched for a coalition I never really liked.

I hope you guys manage to turn this game around. I'll check in at the end to see if my initial coalition would've won - I still think it was probably pure-town - Sleeper - Deimos - DC imo are super solid and Klick is the only one I have even a bit of doubt about but I think he's probably just stubborn town here.

Anyway good luck guys it's been fun. catch the bad guys - go town!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Clover Ebi Jun 23, 05:13pm Jul 06, 03:28am 1 day 2 hours 69


Lurking to the deadline because he knows he doesn't have to come fight - most blatantly anti-town behavior I've ever seen in a 1v1 at the end.

and you guys are just going to let him get away with it. lol I can't even remember a single game where this strategy worked at the deadline but apparently it's good to go here.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I didn't think I'd be alive now, I went to bed with 4 votes on me and thought I would've woken up dead and instead woke up to Clover flipping town - which honestly sucked even harder for me than getting executed there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't think I can really explain the wild rollercoaster of emotion when I opened up the pm from Datisi - like I was half awake and literally ecstatic seeing that Clover somehow miraculously got lynched instead of me - that lasted about half a second before I clicked on reveal his role and found out he was a townie and felt so totally fucked at that piint

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I did a ton of thinking about whether it makes sense for Klick to play this way as scum and now I'm not so sure he's scum as I did yesterday when I was writing out my last will - especially now with Koba getting nightkilled - I feel like we are almost getting set up for a TvT deathmatch here

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

anyway I totally fk'd up on Clover so I understand you guys all want me dead - I'll be here to answer any questions or whatever but I'm gonna rethink who the scum is on the coalition because the NK on Koba is really weird given that I'm probably the execute today.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if sleepersoul is scum here I won't even get to tell him he did a good job snowing me that kinda sucks

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

klick real talk are you a baddie?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well that means I really bungled day 1 huh

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

this game is wild

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DnD are you mafia?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the chemist kill just makes no sense with how the game is set up

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

why would I kill chemist if I'm scum?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky just say your reads so we can end the day

I really quite baffled by the NK I don't see why scum would do it - even if they wanted to force Klick v Me 1v1 we were already heading to that by end of day yesterday

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I mean, it does if you’re scum?

like think about it,

if I'm scum - and I expect to get lynched today - doesn't it make sense to keep Koba/Chemist alive as a mis-exec?

I'm the only person who defended him when he went to L-1 -> me flipping scum makes him look bad

He didn't vote on either me or Clover Day 1 - could very well fit the profile of someone who doesn't want to help his scumbuddy vote off a townie or be responsible for a D1 scum lynch.

The only thing going against it is the D1 Koba/Pooky slap fight and make up - which you could argue is scum-theater given Pooky flipping town.

Like why would I even bother defending Koba if I'm just going to shoot him at night?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Because you knew you were very likely to die today so if:

(1) your partner is out of the coalition, it leaves that pool as large as possible on D3/D4

(2) if your partner is in coalition, it WIFOMs whether you’d both kill in the coalition and make it 2/3 to hit scum today

(1) if I flip scum - you don't know where my partner is - scum flip inside coalition does not clear rest of the coalition.

(2) I mean your point 2 kind of disproves your point 1

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

wait so re-reading your thing again

It's basically saying in both situations regardless of where the scum lie - there is a reasonable choice for killing - its either a positive or a negative trick -

If there's 2 scum on Coalition - shooting on coalition is to WIFOM the town into not looking at the Coalition
If there's 1 scum on Coalition - its to keep the Off-Coalition Pool as big as possible.

So basically it's just circular logic - depending on what reality is - it has a different meaning.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Let's say the 2 scum are DnD and Klick. They shoot Chemist knowing that Pooky is going to get lynched on D2. Pooky gets lynched on D2 - they shoot off coalition - then throw a huge 1v1 fight on D3 - one of them gets lynched - the other one wins in the endgame if they can WIFOM it out.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't see that as a possible thing that can happen for a number of reasons.

1. Why would Dnd/Klick not just leave Chemist alive so they can win outright on D3 if they manage to mislynch Chemist?

2. It seems unnecessarily risky to set up a guranteed scum-lynch for D3 when there's 2 scum alive and both are on coalition - because you take away the chance of winning the game outright on D3 AND on D4 it's very awkward for the last coalition member to be alive in that endgame - very easily can get lynched there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm gonna die today regardless for messing up on the Clover push it's not really something useful to defend myself

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I went to bed yesterday sure I was going to be lynched

it's really weird I didn't die

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

Why self hammer yesterday when it buys you a mislynch and a NK if you don’t self hammer?

cuz I think the town is even more fk'd now that I didn't self-hammer since we're guranteed 2 mis-executes off the bat now

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Maybe DonC is scum lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I feel like you put me in the noose - dangle me over a cliff then drag me back to torture me all over again

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Klick you've played a helluva game if you're scum but if you're town we're both in the same boat lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

its true but Clover isn't as entertaining as me so maybe you kept me around for the fun of it haha

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've been wrong about literally everything so I'm not sure I'm ready to lose it for the town on the LYLO too

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

looking back too much of Clover push was based on my ego thinking that I had a good coalition and Clover was the bad seed in it. Koba was totally right about me being ego-blinded =/

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

this game is such a mindfuck - if you don't see what I mean.

just pretend you're me

and you're holding a townie pm. then try to figure out the game from that POV. It's wild

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The only thing I basically KNEW yesterday was that Clover was town but no one really gave a shit. That's literally been my whole game up to this point - I found a town and tried my hardest to ensure everyone else saw it. That's now provable since Clover had been flipped.

That's basically the same thing as me with Koba.

Your townie got lynched and my townie got shot at night. It's kinda ironic the symmetry

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I can't wait to read the scum PT

they're probably laughing so hard at us RN.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've been wrong about literally everything so I'm not sure I'm ready to lose it for the town on the LYLO too

I'm not saying I'll advocate just sheeping everything you say come LyLo
But equally, having your thoughts on potential Sleeper partners would be very helpful later if you're town

yea but I kinda feel terrible I think this situation we're in is like 99% my fault and if you're town there's a pretty good chance we lose right away tommorrow when you get lynched.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if the scum were split 1:1 between the wagons then aldus is the only partner choice available - makes him Lock-Scum - I think this is a pretty strong possibility because it wasn't clear at all which of me and clover were going to hang yesterday and careful scum would be spreading their votes out.

If the scum had a preference for me surviving over Clover then both scum are with me voting Clover, I think Deimos can't be scum because he hammered when he could've NL'ed it - so it'd have to be either Wugs or DC - between the two of them I think DC is more town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

tho I guess Deimos could be counting on his hammer as town-cred - but that'd be just WIFOMing it

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It could still be Klick

I honestly don't know at this point. Gonna be up to you guys to figure out which one of them is scum. I've been off about everything so far

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I might've been too arrogantly cocky in calling sleepersoul "definite town" cuz he was my bro in a previous game and I thought I had him down pat

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Whatever happens - don't throw down votes quickly tommorrow at lylo - take your time and work out everything. Scum didn't kill Chemist for no reason

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

just checking in

still alive somehow.

I think it's kind of suspicious how DnD is playing as if he already knows I'm going to flip as town and setting up for the 1v1 tommorrow - makes me lean towards Klick town and DnD scum ~ but the choice is going to be up to you guys.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DonC's vote here is pretty susp - if he really thinks I'm scum I don't think he puts me at L-1 this early in the day

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like we have 5 days to talk things over - pretty obvious at this point everyone except for DnD prefers a pooky lynch by a mile - there's no reason to rush things except to stop discussion prematurely.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It doesn't make sense for Klick-scum to defend Clover that hard and attack me for a lynch on D1 - I flip town and he is in a way shittier position D2. He's much better off getting a Clover lynch followed by me getting lynched.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

lost value in derailing the wagon on you.

Pretty sure it's impossible to derail the wagon on me

I have 3 votes on and 2 people who have signaled intent to hammer.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Klick/Aldusskel is our very preliminary solve.
It's interesting to see that Aldusskel barely mentions Klick or engages with him in his first 50 posts (which I assume are before coalition) except for a light townread.

if Klick is scum - Aldus doesn't make sense as a partner - me flipping town would hurt Klick-scum - they'd rather have clover flip town yesterday.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

engaging with them is one way you win the 1v1 tommorrow though

it's going to look real shit if you rush-execute me while refusing to engage with DnD tomm - if you're town and he's scum - he only needs 1 town vote to be wrong and you get quicklynched.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't really understand Aldus's case against me. It would be nice if he could present an actual case instead of just dumping a giant pile of quotes at me

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky, have you played any scumgames since coming back to the site?
If yes, can you link me?

- Dumber

I've only played these 2 games:

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=83440
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=83365

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I mean finished these 2 games

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

why can't me and clover both be town ?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It didn’t feel like there were two town wagons where scum were just tacitly supporting both and letting them play out, but that’s a possibility — if it is, I strongly suspect 1 scum on each wagon

I think it would be odd scum behaviour to just say “yeah let’s both hard defend this one townie and push the other one together to get their mislynch off”

I mean, not impossible, but I just see scum being more likely to go “oh hey, great, competing town wagons, if we play this right one of them definitely gets lynched and the focus stays off us”

But like I said, all of that is dependent on it not being the still simpler case of it just being that town!clover was a wagon scum really wanted because of pooky!scum being the alternative flip

do you really feel like scum was working very hard to get Clover wagon to go first rather than Pooky wagon? Like the entire last day was leaning towards me being lynched instead of clover - it was 4-3 until you flipped in the last 5 hours.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It didn’t feel like there were two town wagons where scum were just tacitly supporting both and letting them play out, but that’s a possibility — if it is, I strongly suspect 1 scum on each wagon

I see what you're saying, and I kind of got those feelings too reading through, but the problem is that I think that Pooky reacted in a townie fashion and that Klick's push felt over-confident and somewhat fake.

As did Aldu's.

Right but again, why do that? What’s the benefit to scum?

Inv4 “to make us have this argument!” Because I don’t think I’ve ever actually read a scum PT where that was the basis of their play

scum want 2 townies to fight and have the viable wagons on day 1 be both townie wagons because it sets up 2 mis-executes in a row.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

obviously I'm committed to it since I know I'm town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if Klick is scum he doesn't vote Clover because a NL is better than Clover flipping town at that point

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

POOKY and WUG

Are you reading or what?

I don't think you can really say Wug or Sleeper pushed very hard for Clover to be lynched instead of me.

If anyone did pushing besides me, it was you.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like if it’s not lylo and the day is one minute away from ending in no lynch you should self so town has that info on you

I once stalled out a game as scum bc my partner was fakeclaiming against the real PR and the wagons were tied with me deciding

And the TPR said “I will self if we get too close to deadline so you know that <my partner> is scum”

And I then hammered them under the weak justification that “ehh I didn’t know what to do and I started town reading <my partner> for how they approached this and I had to hammer(!)” and then went on to win the game

So klick totally could have hammered there as well as aldus, is my point, and no-one would have batted much if an eyelid. It makes more sense they wouldn’t compromise because they were genuinely that committed on their pooky!scumreads

If Klick or Aldus are scum why would they hammer Clover - they're much better off with a NL on D1 than getting closer to a resolution on Clover-Pooky

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yes, it’s obviously inevitable which means why is klick not bothering to set up for that fight at all? Whereas if you /know/ pooky is town then you pocketing him (or trying to) by defending him and already starting work on a klick!scum narrative makes sense to me

Klick doesn't want to fight me because he wants to rush today to a finish. The more fighting he does today the worse he looks tomorrow after I flip town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If anyone did pushing besides me, it was you.

Wug made an effort to get me onboard with clover instead of going to klick or anything and was generally supporting you and advocating in your favour

I don't think Wug tried very hard - your effort was much more responsible for the wagon flip.

Besides Wug doesn't even make sense as my partner - I was planning on getting her lynched initially with Koba back when the Coalition first failed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If Klick or Aldus are scum why would they hammer Clover - they're much better off with a NL on D1 than getting closer to a resolution on Clover-Pooky

That doesn’t change the fact that their whole decision to just hard push you together is weird and doesn’t make sense

Is the goal of the scum not to lynch townies?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Who do you think we should be lynching today anyway pooky?

I was initially thinking lynch DnD because I thought he was setting up for a fight with Klick but with the amount of effort he's putting in to prevent my lynch now I think it's more likely that Klick is the bad guy here trying to rush the day.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yeah but I know my own alignment, duh doy

yes that's my point - you know you're town - you know nobody other than you really helped me push clover very hard - so that should lead you to the conclusion that scum weren't pushing on clover very hard...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Or wug is just ineffectual scum

why would I go banzai on Clover D1 and get my ineffectual scumbuddy Wug to try to win in endgame - cmon that makes no sense.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DC you're wrong about me being scum - I'm here for as long as you need to answer any questions you may have because I got to put my best effort forward for the town that I've kindova screwed over yesterday.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you could say that about Klick too

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DC I think you're feeling a little too emotionally invested - can you take a step back and try to think through this for a second.

Let's say you're RIGHT about me/DnD being scumteam trying to gaslight you right now.

Why would we be openly doing this to you right now? Wouldn't it make way more sense for DnD to join rest of town to throw me off a bridge and try to win in endgame rather than sticking his neck out like this?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I mean what's our plan? Gaslight you and another townie into voting klick - he dies flips town - then tommorrow we wake up with DnD/Me alive grinning like idiots and guaranteed to get lynched? What type of play is that?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If me and DnD are scum trying to gaslight you into getting one more mislynch off so we can lose on Day3/4 it would be literally the dumbest plan in the history of mafiascum.

Are we going to wake up tommorrow with 2 alive from coalition and be like - hmm guys maybe the mod made a mistake and the coalition is 100% clean?!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

cmon DC pls just wash your face with some cold water or something and take a deep breath


you can't actually believe DnD and I are scum who decided to kill Koba-Town then lynch Klick-Town in order to set up that guaranteed scum lynch on D3.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This is like, the exact sort of dumbshit that scum do because they think it’s clever

And I can immediately think of two games off the top of my head where scum have done it (but not outing because I don’t wanna out my main)

but it would make no sense to do!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

In any world where you’re scum and we mislynch today on klick, we’re going to a 3p lylo of (DnD, wug, aldus)

Maybe me instead of aldus because if there’s anything that this conversation is proving it’s that god’s light does not smile upon this game

if you lynch me you will be in lylo tommorrow

if you lynch klick we might never have to have a lylo

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Scumslip?

in context DonC made the point that my scum partner pushed hard for the clover wagon - i was refuting him by saying wug doesn't make sense as my partner because I initially wanted to lynch her

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i'm gonna wait for deimos and klick to say their peace and once that happens i'm voting pooky because D&D is giving me a brain aneurysm trying to argue that pooky is town and if we just eliminate pooky we can immediately clarify that yes pooky is scum and move on with our lives to more productive discussions

if I was scum I would've shot you last night

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

see she doesn't make sense as my scumbuddy at all

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

but I'm town

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I laid out my plan on how to win with a wug scumflip on D1 -

Who are you suggesting friend? i get the Wug scumread (to be fair I think we all do) but that doesn't solve our problem

if wug flips scum - we go into tommorrow with 7 alive, 2 confirmed townies(assuming mafia kill 1 of the 3 clears) so we have 3 lynches to find 1 scum out of 5.

I'm willing to say that Koba probably didn't sacrifice their scumbuddy Wug as a gambit - so let's say that clears Koba,

we are left with myself, sleeper, clover and klick. If you can clear Sleeper because the Sleeper/Tuxedo interaction earlier in D1 - then we are left with 3 lynches and 3 possible scum for the wagon - hence enough for our solve - assuming we were correct to clear sleeper/koba.

This all hinges on Wugs being scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

maybe you should look at the other posts i made when he was at L-1

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

this game is wild,

when I'm convinced koba is scum nobody believes me, but now I'm convinced he's town and everyone thinks he's scum.

I must be really off or something.

Also here's Pooky posturing and leaving open the possibility of hammering Koba later if he feels like he can get away with it

this is a very unfair snapshot - if you look at my other posts after this it is quite clear I am against a Koba lynch and not pivoting to vote him.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

So question for the people saying Pooky can't be scum because he didn't hammer Koba:

You don't seem to townread Aldus. Why didn't he hammer Koba? I remember explicitly asking him to.

It's not clear at all aldus is your scumpartner, your initial premise is faulty.

Also you framed me as scum who was desperate to pull off one mislynch - aldus wouldnt be in that position because he is not in the coalition and no scum was even close to getting lynched yesterday since all 3 wagons that came close to lynch - me koba clover were of townies - means the scum are very well hidden and
didnt feel pressure at all yesterday.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like this was your reaction to his posting at the time
I see Koba thinking it's a good idea, but not Pooky.
PEdit: lmao.

if wug flips scum - we go into tommorrow with 7 alive, 2 confirmed townies(assuming mafia kill 1 of the 3 clears) so we have 3 lynches to find 1 scum out of 5.

I'm willing to say that Koba probably didn't sacrifice their scumbuddy Wug as a gambit - so let's say that clears Koba,

we are left with myself, sleeper, clover and klick. If you can clear Sleeper because the Sleeper/Tuxedo interaction earlier in D1 - then we are left with 3 lynches and 3 possible scum for the wagon - hence enough for our solve - assuming we were correct to clear sleeper/koba.

This all hinges on Wugs being scum.

Klick just lying now

vote Klick

adding VOTE: klick for the votecounter -D

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But again, do you think Pooky actually thinks 5 people are going to vote outside the coalition D1? I don't. The push has no teeth.

Koba/Pooky is 2

The 3 Off Coalition people getting cleared voting the one person getting pushed out is another 3 - it's a ballsy play with high EV upside if we hit a scum off-coalition.

The only 2 people who expressed support of this idea was me/koba - you know koba is town - so if I'm scum why isn't my scumpartner supporting this idea too?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the EV gain from lynching scum off-coalition is higher than EV gain from lynching scum on-coalition because when you lynch off-coalition scum you gain 3-conf innocents as well as reducing the coalition game state to one in which you can lynch 3 times in 5 players to catch 1 scum. If you have 2 really strong townreads on-coalition this is fairly trivial to win.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That's in exchange for the pitifully low odds of actually executing scum off-coalition, which you keep conveniently ignoring

If the scum split is 1 on 1 off, the probability of hitting off-coalition is higher than the probability of hitting on-coalition. It's only a lower probability of hitting scum if you spread the scum possibly anywhere - also me and koba didn't say it wasn't a lower probability - we just said it's a high risk ballsy play.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

wait you still think the coalition has 2 scum on it?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

so why would we kill Chemist if me/DnD are scum on coalition? Killing Chemist eliminates our own room to survive.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Same reason you'd kill him with 1-on-1-off
Pooky-scum is already in a bad spot and is highly unlikely to survive after how D1 played out
Therefore there's no difference between off and on coalition for your NK

this is just factually untrue.

If your game-read of Dnd/Pooky Scum team trying to push Klick-town out is true - then that sets up a D3 where town is guranteed to hit scum in Dnd/Pooky and likely win on D4.

It would make 0 sense as a scum strategy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if that was the plan why is DnD-ScumBuddy going guns out trying to keep me alive?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like I mean what exactly do you think a good outcome today is for me/dnd scum-team if we shoot Chemist overnight?


1) We lynch Klick - tommorrow we get strung up 1 after the other - town wins wooohooo

2) Pooky gets lynched - DnD probably gets lynched the next day because he defended Pooky super hard - town wins woohoo

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what does wug have to do with it? are we going to wake up with 2 alive coalition and somehow convince town to vote wug off instead?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

but it's so pointlessly dumb - scum are trying to move the game in a position where they can win on a ML on d3 lylo - not gurantee the town a scumlynch on D3 lylo with the partner sitting in a giant hole for D4 lylo

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

There were some unresolved tensions from the lovers game - emotions ran pretty hot - he hammered me at lylo on the last day and the town lost

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well i dont remember if it was the hammer or close to the hammer - but I think he was town and fooled by his scum lover into helping the scum kill me after I made a really ballsy bait move to reveal a scum quicklynch plan

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=83365&start=725

yea he was the L-1 vote and his scum-lover hammered me on the next post and won the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

And on top of that, you're scumreading someone who hard-defended town Day 1. What scum does that? In your scenario, it's two competing town wagons -- scum doesn't give a damn which one goes through in the end.

Well according to you, I did for Koba-town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

basically just unhelpful interactions and an apathetic move towards voting Klick when it looks like he might actually survive today against all reason

? I think i've been fairly transparent on my reads - I moved towards Klick-scum after it was clear DnD was not just posturing for a Pooky-Lynch-Town-Flip followed by going after Klick hard tommorrow in LyLO.

As for Klick's scumpartner I think it's probably between Aldus and Wug. As we have a ML to give after Klick flips scum - we should be able to cruise to a win.

I'm fairly sure it isn't DnD - Deimos - DonC just from their interactions with the Klick slot throughout the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

False equivalency -- Klick is engaging more with the game than Pooky is, and also Klick (up until recently) probably didn't feel as though death were imminent.

PookyTheMagicalBear Jun 23, 03:36pm Jul 13, 11:52pm 0 days 15 hours 315
Klick Jun 25, 04:15pm Jul 13, 08:05pm 0 days 19 hours 247

How is Klick engaging more with the game when I have like 25% more posts than him?

I've also had meaningful fights with Clover, Koba and Klick.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Lord help me if I’m wrong and it’s (DnD, pooky) and DnD absolutely worked a number on me

if it's me and DnD you guys can just lynch us.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If you guys lynch me today -

Get Klick tomm and then his partner should be between Wug - Aldus.


DonC is town because

Fought v hard D1 to get onto Coalition - interaction between him/klick contentious - flipped on him twice now - would be insane scum-theater if he is really scum with Klick

Deimos is town because

Hammered D1 when scum were much better off with NL. Vibe of posts has always been solve-oriented - willing to be open to both sides - genuinely searching for solution.

DnD is town because

yea there's no way I think he's scum after the level of play he did today replacing in - scum just lets me get lynched here and takes the easy win tommorrow.


Between Aldus and Wug:

Wug - Low interaction - pretty lurky - makes sense as a silent type partner for a more dominant Klick. Klick was against a Wug Wagon on D1.

Aldus - Higher Interaction than Wug - Stronger Associatives with Klick in that he's more actively trying to push Pooky-lynch - Klick even tells everyone to sheep Aldus (WIFOM?)

Betw the 2 of them I'd probably think Wug is more likely to be the partner but just by a hair.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If you look at my game there -

you have several differences between Pooky-Scum there and Pooky-Town here:

1) Activity/Posting:

if you look at the activity over-view I have 110 posts in that game completed while here I have over 300 posts

2) Driving the Action:

I don't drive the action nearly as much in that game as I do in this game - I hammer on all three days - I don't drive the action on the wagon - I tend to be more sneaky and in the background.


As to your point about my 1v1ing - I didn't really 1v1 with anyone in that game except maybe Varsoon and even then that is because he came after me for things that Koba did prior to entry in the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Your posts per page are almost identical — this game is about 3 times longer.

This is more of a function of how many players are posting - when you look at posts per page you're really looking as post count as a percentage of the total posts in the game as each page has a fixed number of posts.

Coalition is a 9 player game whereas the other game is a 7 player game - also not a lot of people were posting in that game in general so that will increase my post count as a percentage of the entire game.

I think a better measure would be something like posts/day -

In this game I'm at 320/20 = 16 posts per day

in that game I'm at 110/11 = 10 posts per day.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

They were peddling DnD-scum as a theory until it looked like I could be executed, and then they jumped onto me when they could find an excuse to. It's the same 'play dead until they get someone else' shtick he played yesterday.

I suspected DnD earlier yes, but after our three way conversation with DonC over pages 82-86 I trusted him way more - when you have an experience like that it's hard to not just get down on your knees and kiss the feet of your savior. I just can't see it being possible that he's scum because it's way easier for him to just push me over the ledge instead of re-reading a 70+ page game and wrestling me back from the edge of death.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I literally don't have the capability to keep track of a bombardment of questions about stuff that I was thinking about ages ago. That's not in my skillset as a player.

I imagine it would have been a lot easier to play 20 questions with DnD if I knew everyone's alignments and was planning in a scum PT

I don't think it's accurate to say DnD just launched a bombardment of questions that were un-answerable - we had five days to work through the game state and questions and he just wanted to have a conversation about why you wanted to execute me. - you wanted to shut down conversation and just rush through the execution and refused to even entertain the question of what next? when I flip town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

who are you asking?

I know I'm town because the mod told me I'm town - so both wagons on D1 were on town players.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Gonna go to bed now, by the time I wake up either me or Klick will likely be dead. Revisiting my post here:

If you guys lynch me today -

Get Klick tomm and then his partner should be between Wug - Aldus.


DonC is town because

Fought v hard D1 to get onto Coalition - interaction between him/klick contentious - flipped on him twice now - would be insane scum-theater if he is really scum with Klick

Deimos is town because

Hammered D1 when scum were much better off with NL. Vibe of posts has always been solve-oriented - willing to be open to both sides - genuinely searching for solution.

DnD is town because

yea there's no way I think he's scum after the level of play he did today replacing in - scum just lets me get lynched here and takes the easy win tommorrow.


Between Aldus and Wug:

Wug - Low interaction - pretty lurky - makes sense as a silent type partner for a more dominant Klick. Klick was against a Wug Wagon on D1.

Aldus - Higher Interaction than Wug - Stronger Associatives with Klick in that he's more actively trying to push Pooky-lynch - Klick even tells everyone to sheep Aldus (WIFOM?)

Betw the 2 of them I'd probably think Wug is more likely to be the partner but just by a hair.

I'm the most sure about DonC and Deimos being definite-town - it'd be very hard for me to picture either of these guys being scum given their posting this game.

Between Klick and DnD - I'm like 90% believe its Klick being scum but it's really up to you guys to make a decision - talk it out - take your time - give Klick a fair chance it will be Lylo and Klick deserves that at least.


- for Klick's partner I think now Aldus makes more sense than Wug - he feels more deliberately one-dimensional while Wug feels like more of a genuine newb.

For DnD's partner - I really didn't think much about this because I don't really think he's scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote Dumb and Dumber

We r probly screwed. Really a masterful performance yesterday. Congrats you deserve to win coming in like this and setting this up.

I’m just curious why did you want to 1v1 me today instead of Klick? who are you really? Somebody I know?

adding VOTE: Dumb and Dumber for the automatic vote counter -D

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

1 wrong vote now and scum wins. Take your time guys please.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I should’ve just hammered myself yesterday and let klick 1v1 you

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Donc is locktown

Aldus and Wug, one is the last townie the other is DND scumpartner.

I know you both wanted me dead yesterday _ pls give me a chance today > if you don’t we lose as town right away.

I am here to answer any questions you might have.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think I’d like each of you to scumcase the other before anything else. You’ve also both suggested that I’m town, in which case — who do you think is the partner of the other and why?

The D1 interaction between SleeperSoul and Tuxedo Marx felt very unlikely to be between 2 scum-partners unless they planned it out as scum-theater but given that the nature of the discussion was something that they should not even have posted in a public chat as it pertained to a different game that they were in together I don't see how they could've pre-planned that out given it would've been a violation of site rules. I can't mention exactly what was said because it's a discussion of a different game but given what was said I think it's almost impossible they are scum together - I think you remember this convo?

That rules out Wug as DnD's partner IMO.


Your interaction with DnD yesterday feels genuine - I'm not sure if it's within either of your playstyles to fake a 7 page conversation spanning multiple days since I don't actually know either of your real identities, but I'm willing to say it's extremely unlikely. Your interactions with me where you basically dangle me over the death-cliff multiple times feels to me like that of a townie figuring out the game. You fighting with Koba hard to get into the coalition where your partner DnD already is doesn't seem like something feasible for you to do.

Also you wouldn't have resisted the wug-exec proposition from Koba so violently if you were scum with DnD as it would've been very helpful to your cause.


By PoE this leaves Aldus as DnD's partner - I feel his play has been pretty disconnected from the game - he doesn't spend very much effort on trying to solve the game and is comfortable just tunneling me without any rhyme or reason. When DnD asks Aldus for a case - there isn't much interaction between them - just a fustrated quote dump.

Honestly I think there's maybe a 20% chance you are scum with DnD and Aldus is just terribly lazy town but if that's the case we've already lost because Aldus can't consider any scenario in which I'm town and I don't mind losing to you guys at all because you've had me snowed from D1 and as I've noted above your play has been stellar - I really do want to know who you guys actually are because I'd love to try to get even with ya'all next time.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i already made my case for why you are DnD's partner

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Note this is going to be a long post but it's worth the read because if you do read it front to back you will understand why DnD is definitely the scum here:


So here's what DnD did in this game which I can go for him for since he wasn't here during D1:

He replaced in and derailed the prevailing wagon at the time - which was on Pooky and ended up getting Klick lynched.

Now you have to look at his motivation behind that -

Scenario 1: DnD is scum - he did it in order to set up an easier 1v1 later because he felt Klick is a harder 1v1 target than Pooky because most of the game at that point had expressed overwhelming suspicion of Pooky and wanted to lynch Pooky. If he fails to derail the wagon - it sets up the 1v1 with Klick on better footing - since Pooky flips town and he goes into D3 with a 1v1 with Klick where he has defended Pooky-town whereas Klick had just pushed a mislynch on Pooky - this is very good for DnD.


It's really a no-lose scenario for DnD - either he succeeds in derailing the wagon on Pooky and sets up a 1v1 with Pooky that he has tremendous upside advantages in that many people already suspect Pooky (Aldus, Wug, DonC) or he fails to derail but Pooky's town flip gives him a huge advantage vs Klick on the next day since it makes him look super-townie whereas Klick had just pushed through a Pooky-Mislynch. He only needs one person to vote wrong at this point and the game is his.

This explains why he advocated so hard for wagon-derailment on D2 - either he succeeds in derailing and gets the 1v1 he wants on D3 or he doesn't succeed and he's in a much better position vs Klick after Pooky flips town.


Scenario 2: DnD is town, he derailed the wagon because he was sure Pooky is town and Klick is scum. Here's the thing, by his own admission here, he didn't even really read D1:

If you're expecting something convincing on Pooky, then maybe give us a day. My other head's busy for a couple days so I'll have to do this myself, but I can find the time sometime today. Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

-Dumbass

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Put yourself in DnD's shoes, you ride into town, everyone is saying Pooky is scum, you decide nah everyone's wrong and you don't even do the work of reading D1 to figure out if they have a good point or not - does that sound like townie play?

Pretend now that you're in DnD's shoes and you're town:

You come in on D2, you convince everyone they're wrong about Pooky being scum - you end up lynching Klick instead - surprise surprise Klick is town and the guy you saved - Pooky is scum. Egg on your face right? What type of emotions are going through your head right now?

Anger?
Regret?

You'd feel terrible about this right? You'd come out guns BLAZING on D3 to set right this injustice and lay down the Pooky-scum and pay the town back for trusting you.

What does DnD do instead? Barely a whimper. Comes out and doesn't even have a case on me at all, two heads they had all night to come up with something and they got nada in 4 days - does that seem like someone who went to bed last night angry that they messed up big time on D2?

Now why is it that a player like DnD puts 10x the effort into derailing the wagon on D2 that he doesn't have an actual idea on (since he didn't read D1) and no effort no getting Pooky lynched on D3 when he KNOWS for certain that Pooky is scum.



Think about that for a second.. Why would DnD make that play? Doesn't he know he needs to win in LyLo?


It's actually really clever why he played it this way.


Because in Lylo you only need one mistake for your scum-mate to jump on - he doesn't need a really convincing case - he just needs 1 mistake.

But the main reason is actually even more subtle - he doesn't want to hit me too hard and go into a full out slugfest with me - because in case he loses that slugfest - I look a helluva lot better on D4 lylo - now instead of me being lynch-bait on D4 I look solid because of the back and forth 1v1 with him.

It's actually a very clever move by him - the harder he fights me today - the more innocent I look tomorrow when he flips scum today if I get him lynched - so he wants to keep this fight at a low-energy level so I look MORE suspicious tomorrow. He needs to create a world where he and I are scum together because then it doesn't matter if he loses the 1v1 to me - his teammate will still lynch me tomorrow and he'll win anyway.


TLDR Summary:

DnD must be scum because his actions do not line up with town motivation:


Derailed Wagon on D2 without Reading D1 in order to set up a 1v1 with his best odds (He actually prefers a Pooky lynch D2 because a 1v1 with Klick where he defended Pooky-Town-Lynch against Klick's Pooky-Town-Lynch looks great for him on optics at LYLO)

Came out flat on D3 in order to frame Pooky D4 due to association.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Alternate approach:
Pooky, for this exercise assume that you and I agree you're scum and we're town, can you point out the riskiest plays you made in this game?

-Dumbass

die scum die

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Where has dumber gone?

But also, sure — pooky, why don’t you elaborate on 1960 like DnD said?

at the time I was thinking about who would make sense as a partner for Klick-scum, I was very sure I was going to be lynched since Klick and Deimos had already voted me. Wug/DonC had signalled intent to vote me, and Aldus hadn't posted yet but he'd been very gungho on voting me - making it 5 players who wanted me dead at that point.

Given the town would be in LYLO on D3 after I flip town, I was thinking about who would be the most likely partner for Klick-scum because town can't afford to miss.

My train of thought was that lynching Clover instead of Pooky on D1 was VERY good for Klick-scum because it made him look better since he had defended the town-flip D1 and it sets up Pooky for being lynched on D2 with universal suspicion - making it not as bad of a lynch for Klick's rep.

If instead Pooky had been lynched on D1 - Klick would look very bad on D2 since he had led the lynch of a townie and would immediately come under fire on D2 - he could immediately get lynched there on D2 - so Klick's partner would be actively diverting the wagon from Pooky to Clover for this reason - I used this to think about who was doing the wagon diversion on D1 and the person most responsible for changing the wagon from Pooky to Clover on D1 was DonC.

From that strategic lens - DonC's interactions with Klick at the end of D1 serves multiple purposes if they are scum together:

1) Creates massive distance by having a public fight over real stakes
2) Diverts the leading wagon to create a Mislynch candidate D2
3) Protects Klick by making him not responsible for a Mislynch on D1
4) Generates towncred for Klick by having him defend a conf-townie Clover on D1
5) Separates the scum votes D1.

Think about how easy the game would be to win for Klick/DonC on D2 if they are scum together , they just push Pooky off the ledge with most of the town ready to lynch Pooky- then in LYLO they have huge amounts of distancing and history that makes it nearly impossible to pick them up as the scumpair for the town - even if the town lynchs Klick at this point DonC has the distancing on D1.

Anyway this theory died as soon as DonC was willing to lynch Klick on D2.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a far weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip.

The stronger your defense of me on D2 is, the stronger your position in the 1v1 against Klick-town is when I flip town and we go to LyLo on D3.

I think you went all out on the defense of me because you needed to make it convincing in order to win vs Klick in the 1v1. You also needed it to look genuine and full-effort to not look phony because if it looks phony its a huge mark against you - you have to make us think you are actually very defensive of me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were planning to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it much more likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today?

I already explain in my post why you didn't come out guns blazing for me today. If you were town you would've definitely come out eager to scrap and brawl but instead it's been quite dull. You don't want to hit me too hard and make me look good tomorrow after you flip scum today.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I just had an epiphany while eating dinner - I know why DnD said his own scumbuddy Aldus is my scumbuddy-

DnD needs to create a world in which I have a plausible scumpartner other than him because if he can't convince the town that such a team exists - he's the lynch today.

Originally I thought he just pulled up Deimos analysis in 2431 and just went with the simplest one to explain but it's actually more subtle than that:


He did it because if he targets a townie as my scumbuddy - that's one less townie vote that will be willing to peel off - he needs one of the 2 remaining townies to make a mistake and he doesn't want to alienate them by calling them scum - that'd be reducing the people he can sell this to by half.

Which imo confirms Aldus as his scum-buddy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a far weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip... and if you're town that leaves us in a helluva strong position today.

I don't think you intended to actually derail the wagon - you wanted to put up a strong defense of Pooky-Town so that you'd have something to use against Klick - however you pushed a little too hard and ending up completely trainwrecking the wagon - at that point you couldn't turn back so you decided the heck with it I can always just flip this back on Pooky on D3 when Klick flips town - that'd be 2 MLs Pooky is on and he'd be a sitting duck for me to push out in LYLO.

The key is that your defense of me was not based on me being scum/town - it was based on how you wanted to position your own role on D3 after either Klick or Pooky town was lynched on D2 - you knew that the wagon was either going to be Klick or Pooky - you didn't really care which of us died, you just wanted to make sure you'd have the advantage over the survivor in D3 LyLo.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

So we didn't know how to temper our derailment, and instead over-committed to it with continuous personal engagement instead of just putting up a defense and leaving it at that? This is silly. Go ahead and identify the point at which we "realized" there's no turning back, go on.

Of course you committed to the defense of me whole-heartedly - the more strongly you defend me - the better you look on D3 when I flip town on D2 lynch - setting you up for the 1v1 with Klick perfectly. If you had put forth just a half-hearted defense of me, it would've looked like scum having info and posturing for D3 and you would've had a much arder time vs Klick on D3 1v1 LyLo.

You probably didn't expect to actually succeed in derailing the wagon on D2 with 5 people either voting or stating they planned to vote me but when it succeeded you didn't really feel the need to flip the wagon back on me as I'd be easy lynch bait on D3 since most people already suspected me.

There is no specific "point" in which you realized anything or even considered turning back - you were dedicated to the role you played and you had all of us fooled.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Our defense of you was exactly based on you being scum/town wrt Klick. We townread you, and found the case on you pretty unconvincing

How do you townread me if you didn't even read large parts of Day 1?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Derailing momentum on a sure firing to the other townread slot is a poor method of ensuring an advantage in LyLo.

It's win-win for you - either you fail to stop the Pooky-TownFlip and end up looking great on D3 for defending Pooks while Klick got him evicted - setting you up perfectly for the 1v1 vs Klick

or

You get rid of Klick and end up with Pooky - somebody the entire town already suspects and someone who has just gotten Klick-town evicted as your 1v1 opponent.

In both scenarios you are pretty well off in your 1v1 LYLO.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Uhhhhh this could have gone sooooooo badly for scum!us, and backfired awfully. It almost did, we were initially scum-read for doing so, and were in the hot seat for a bit there. We coudl have just ... avoided all of that by saying 'oh yeah pooky is obvscum lol' and vote you.

I don't remember any instance yesterday where you could've been wagoned

instead

of me or any instance where the wagon could've been diverted onto you instead. Any discussion about your guilt was either very late in the day like just hours before deadline when it was too late to get off 3-3 tie between Klick and me OR your guilt as an associate of me - as in if Pooky flips scum, then look at DnD as a scumbuddy - something you knew wouldn't happen since you knew I was going to flip town on a lynch thus making your defense of me look amazingly good if I actually got lynched.

I don't remember any time when you specifically were in the hot seat yesterday - it felt very much to be a 1v1 betw me and Klick the entire way through.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like we could have taken the easy route so so so easily. Like I don't get why we'd go out of the way to make our position in the game more precarious when we could have just taken the easy mislynch and then had the 1v1 today.

Your defense of me on D2 did not make your position more precarious. You would've had a 1v1 today regardless of whether Klick or I had gotten lynched yesterday in our 1v1. Yesterday was trending towards a Pooky lynch followed by a 1v1 between you and Klick on D3 - something which is a bit of an even match between you and Klick if you just go along with Pooky-wagon and you look worse if you mount just a half-hearted defense of Pooky or inacto D2.

What you did instead was a full-defense of Pooky - resulting either in

A) Pooky gets evicted - you look great in 1v1 lylo vs Klick as you did full out defense.
B) Klick gets evicted - you get to 1v1 against someone who is universally suspected by the entire town - again advantage you.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

We're obviously, undoubtedly, in a worse position right now, upon the mislynch, than we would have been if we would had just ridden the mislynch to the 1b1 today. Like we (unfortunately) burned all towncred yesterday ... for what exactly? It didn't make today any easier

How are you in a worse position now ?

If you ride with Klick to ML Pooky, you're at best at parity with Klick in 1v1 since you just came in and sheeped him.

Now you're 1v1 against Pooky who every player in the game except you had expressed a willignness to lynch on D2 and has been up for lynch now TWICE at L-1 both times. Add your vote to the wagon and this should be the easiest lynch in your life if you can just get one of the townies who wanted to lynch Pooky on D2 to join you again.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Again, this is failing to take into account the consequences/reevaluations/gamestate post klick!townflip. Our credit is shot. You're describing this to me significantly easier than it actually is, and the scum motivation you're attributing to us evaporates in that context

Again town-cred is relative - regardless of any town-cred you lose with the Klick-townflip - my credibility is still worse than yours.

It's not the absolute credibility of your position that matters in the 1v1 - it's your

relative

credibility compared to the other guy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like this is a awful uphill battle that could have been avoided by taking the easy mislynch yesterday.

This is farcically incorrect on its face, how is it an uphill battle for you? Aldus/Wug both voted for me in D2 - do you think Klick flipping town will make them change their mind on my guilt? Regardless of which one is your scumbuddy - you only need to convince the other person to vote me and you have a packaged win right there - you don't even have to push hard - you just have to make the townie not change his mind. Also DC has voted for me on both D1 and D2 - so you just have to get him to vote me once and have your scumbuddy pounce.

The idea that this is an uphill battle for you is a joke.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Like, if scum!us went town!pooky first: easy mislynch yesterday on pooky, one hard-ish mislynch today on klick
vs: if scum!us went town!klick first: redivert everyone off of the easy mislynch, burn all our cred upon the townflip, and look like idiots today when we're forced to go back to the position we hsould have taken yesterday. Just, like, why?

because 1v1 Klick is much harder for you today than 1v1 Pooky - Pooky is someone suspected by 5/7 players on D2 and you just need 1 vote from 1 of them to win the game today.

The ideal conclusion to yesterday is of course if Pooky is lynched and flips town and then you get to 1v1 Klick with the full-Pooky defense card in your arsenal that you can use to stomp Klick with in the 1v1 Lylo D3.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You're acting like we read nothing and had no context for the game, and just barged in here with a preconceived narrative that we were going to push regardless, which isn't true.

We both skimmed bits and parts of teh game upon repping in, and my other head actually read through large portions of day1. We had *some* of the context, albeit all of it, and what we had seen from that point seemed to point to scum!klick

I'm just going off what your other head said:

Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

- I was busy IRL and wasn't around literally until now, so assigning motivations or emotions to me when I clearly have not been here is just a bit gross

Well there's 2 of you and you've had since Thursday when Klick was revealed as a townie so I don't think it's unfair to say that it hasn't been a great priority for you.

I also didn't assign an emotion to you - I said you did not have this emotion - that's an absence of something that is clear to everyone here.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

- this doesn't match the narrative you're pushing in the top of this post - if our evil!plan is to come in and push you today after forcing through the mislynch on town!klick, we should have been better prepared, no? We had all of day2 and the night to plan this out. Our whole plan for the game was contingent on this given our actions yesterday. And despite that, we just - don't act upon it today? How does that make sense as a scum action here given teh narrative you're pushing today?

I explained why you didn't come out swinging in my post - you didn't want the fight to get too real because it creates separation between us - if I win this 1v1 with you, you want me to look like possibly your scumbuddy so I'm a viable lynch-candidate on D4. If the battle between us gets to fierce and I end up looking like lock-town after you flip scum, then we have 2 universally townread players in Pooky/DC and you can only kill one of us leaving an endgame of Pooky or DC town vs Wug - Aldus and you're worried that Aldus-scum doesn't win that 1v1 vs Wug.

Also if the fight doesn't get fleshed out too hard - you can just pounce if one townie makes a wrong vote - less information is better for the scum - you want a townie to make a mistake, a slip - one wrong vote and your scumbuddy pounces and it's game over for us.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

But our whole gameplan *(per your explanation for why we wanted klick first out yesterday) is to win a 1v1 against you today

You can't simultaneously argue we went for Klick yesterday to set up a mislynch on you today to win while also arguing we we're setting ourselves up to take the fall today so that you're tomorrow's mislynch bait

That doesn't make sense. Like your narrative has shifted to basically saying we're currently trying to set you up to be 3way lylo's mislynch but that doesn't explain what we were trying to do yesterday with Klick

It's a fallback option for you if you lose the 1v1 with me - though now that I've called attention to it I expect you and your other head will step up big time in the posting and make this a real fight to the death.

You don't want to get lynched today obviously - you'd much rather have a townie make the wrong move and vote me today but even if it doesn't work out that way it's a fairly safe way to get a Pooky mislynch on D4 if people think our fight is fake.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This wasnt' your narrative at daystart though.
Your explanation for what we've been doing has shifted (and has, imo, become improbable)

You did not believe you had the ability to derail the wagon because it had 2 votes on it and 3 people signalling intent to vote - 5 votes out of 4 needed for a lynch.

You put up a spirited defense of Pooky that you were planning to use on Klick in D3 Lylo after a Pooky Town-flip.

That is the best case scenario for you -

The town lynches Pooky-Town

despite

your full hearted defense - the person most responsible? Why your 1v1 opponent tomorrow, Klick.

This 1v1 is made much easier for you

because

of your full-on defense of Pooky - who Klick had just MLed on D2. One wrong townie vote and Klick is done - game set match.

If you just do a token defense or half-hearted defense - Klick can make the argument that you had pre-knowledge of Pooky-town and you were just posturing in order to look better on D3 - you NEED to make it a full on defense to look convince on D3 Lylo.

This was your original plan but Pooky somehow surviving D2 and ending up your 1v1 Partner suits you just fine as well since Pooky is very suspected by the entire town at that point and can be set up as a ML - you only need 1 townie vote on Pooky D3 Lylo to win the game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Again, this doesn't actually take into account the fact that our position in the gamestate would be wrecked upon a klick!townflip, when we could have just avoided all of this by supporting your mislynch in the first place.

Like you're concocting elaborate plans to explain scum!us's positioning, but failing to explain why we don't just take the easy route. Like what you're saying is technically possible, sure. Is it actually probable though?

Again, Klick-townflip hits me and you equally hard - it's a relative wash. However you still get to 1v1 against somebody who the entire town suspected on D2.

This isn't an elaborate plan - it's a straightforward play for you. Defend the person who looks like he's about to get railed on out of town to set yourself up for looking better in the LYLO tomorrow regardless of what happens. Either that person you defended gets lynched and you look great or that person you defended survives and is a sitting duck for you tomorrow since most people already suspect his slot.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think we were framed with that kill
(And I'd also have to say that as either alignment, so eh take that with a grain of salt)

I wish I had a nightkill to get rid of the person who wants me evicted, I could just shoot aldus and claim I'm being framed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

After the clusterfuck of D1 this ended up being a really good game, so thanks everyone

Whoever scum is, I think you’ve played a very strong game

I’ve thought about it and I think that given the resistance that pooky faced both D1 and D2 and that in both cases the push was coming from town slots, on a probabilistic basis its likely that this flips scum more often than not and not that scum were playing a super WIFOM game of trying to fight a town!pooky wagon against other town slots specifically to wifom 5p lylo

If that is what they’ve done, well done, congrats on the win, no bad blood from me although I’ll be frustrated I missed it!

Seeing as apparently I’m very broadly townread I figure I’ll die tonight (I think this is why pooky and DnD both said they were TRing me so hard btw — makes it normal that I would die vs DnD dying) — my feeling is that if it’s not (DnD, aldus) it’s probably (pooky, DnD) and not (pooky, wug) but aldus you should check that

I think aldus is town if pooky does flip scum

VOTE: pooky

Let’s find out!

you need to unvote before aldus wakes up and wins the game for the scum team. its really not me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

deimos is probably banging his head against a desk right now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I’ve thought about it and I think that given the resistance that pooky faced both D1 and D2 and that in both cases the push was coming from town slots, on a probabilistic basis its likely that this flips scum more often than not and not that scum were playing a super WIFOM game of trying to fight a town!pooky wagon against other town slots specifically to wifom 5p lylo

I don't even know what you are talking about - just because I was almost lynched on 2 days doesn't mean I have to be scum. Town do not have info roles - this isn't a me or him situation - there's no reason both wagons can't be town. The scum aren't playing some super-wifom game - they're just happy to keep me around because I tend to get really close to getting lynched every day and they are happy to have all the heat focussed on townies.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

literally the last thing deimos said was that you should lynch DnD first

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

YOINK PAGETOP!?!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm glad I got at least one of these before I bit the bullet

DonC just unvote and lets talk it out

aldus can log in at any moment

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if you are unconvinced by the end of our convo you can just revote me no hard feelings

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

gimme 1 reason why they're SvT

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Because generally one wagon getting pushed by town that is strongly resisted means its scum doing the resisting

And I think it’s less likely that scum were consistently resisting one town wagon vs another than that scum were resisting because the alternative wagon was on scum

but you were the one doing the resisting!!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

And I think it’s less likely that scum were consistently resisting one town wagon vs another than that scum were resisting because the alternative wagon was on scum

If both wagons are on town - the scum don't care one way or the other - they'd rather just split their votes up so both wagons are viable and there's a natural continuation target for the NEXT day when one of the wagons goes thru.

Setting up two wagons creates a natural rivalry between the 2 wagon targets and focusses all the action around them - this is something you want to happen if you're scum.

Look at Sleepersoul - Aldus on D1

Aldus is voting me
Sleepersoul is supporting me

Look at DnD - Aldus on D2

Aldus is voting me
DnD is supporting me without even reading the game as soon as he replaces in.

Why do you think they are always split up like that? My bet is Aldus told DnD in the scum PT that his job is to support Pooky - one scum on either side.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If I’m wrong so be it, I tried my best and got fooled as hard as everyone else

if you're still wrong at the end of this convo you can just revote me - but give me a chance at least - if aldus logs in and hammers the game is over.


If I can't show you where you're wrong - I will take this loss knowing I did my best and you did too but at least give me the chance man.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the ideal situation for any scum is not to get himself at L-1 every day and almost get lynched - that's just a retarded way to play.

What scum want to do is INDIRECT conflict - especially between town players - that's why they support both sides of TvT so that all of the energy/focus is on the 2 TvT players - that's why both day 1 and day 2 focused around a single 1v1 conflict that didn't really spread out to the rest of the game - the scum are quite happy having a TvT be the primary focus because they have no risk and they also have a natural target for the next day to go after.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you were the L-1 vote on me D1 , when you switched over on D1 you completely changed the momentum on that wagon - it was

4- Pooky
3- Clover

with Deimos signalling intent to hammer

you changed from Pooky to Clover making it 4-3 the other way and bent Deimos into hammering Clover - Was that scum driven? No - both you and deimos are TOWN


On Day 2 you were the first person to be convinced by DnD to switch from Pooky to Klick - after that Deimos also switched his position and that was the bandwagon - Pooky-DnD-DonC-Deimos

Was that scum driven? you know you're town - you know deimos is town. Who is the scum changing the wagon direction? DnD? Why don't you vote him instead of me then?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

My bet is Aldus told DnD in the scum PT that his job is to support Pooky

I mean I recently rolled scum with aldus and sort of doubt that he’d be the one running things if the scumteam were him and DnD

DnD literally just replaced in on Day 2, you think he wouldn't ask aldus what's going on in the scum PT?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Also, is Aldu/DnD your final answer?

I said Aldus was your scumbuddy like 2 or 3 days ago when DonC asked

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Cmon Donny

We've been thru so much - don't give up on me now

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like I'm just saying let's talk it out

if you think I'm still scum at the end of the convo you can just revote me and it'll be game over

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't need to make any redactions

great game everyone it was tons of fun playing with you all

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You have never played with me before but I will make you see rope and there is little point in trying to resist because once I’m locked in scum I cannot be redirected

I am a scumseeking laser guided fucking missile that ends with you dying and town winning this game

this post was lit