976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[mastina]

First!
VOTE: DoubtingThomas
Sheeped me into the game on what was honestly a very weak case.

Town.

sky i missed who are your heads?
...
...
...

sus for not answering fast enough
VOTE: sky

Town?

Hello, folks. Nice to meet you. How do you do?

Scum?

hello, first time in a hydra!
VOTE: doubtingthomas

Scum.

VOTE: SKYEscrapers.

[mastina]

Honestly, this post is just to claim the pagetop, but what part of Tris' post is so Alien to you? Why do you think it is scum?

Because gut?

Do you expect an actual logical reasoned case for a literal page one read?

Hello y'all i'm a kind of reflexive role, could i get visits on me in the coming nights? Kthxbye

Town.

nice try scum pgo

Town?

this kinda pings my gut though I have trouble explaining why
ehhhh
VOTE: skye

Shamelessly upgrading my read on you from Town? to Town.

VOTE: DoubtingThomas
Who, similarly, gets upgraded from scum? to Scum from page two.

[mastina]

I think I can elaborate better upon reread
this feels like, too eager/anxious to shake an early wagon off when it's nothing and rvs. This could be for multiple reasons, but for now I think it's a minor scumtell at least enough to go here

Eh, I see where you're coming from, but if anything I actually think that's the towniest post the slot has made given it's from Ari. If it was a tris post, full agreement, but it being an Ari post gives a rather strong possible town indicator.

I'll want more from Ari before I lock them into a read one way or another; they're still possible scum to me at this stage until Ari proves otherwise since one promising post does not a town-Ari make (but several promising posts does, thus, need for more Ari posting), but I prefer my vote on DoubtingThomas right now, and if I had to finger a second scum...

Who should I vote for?

...I'd actually go here.

[mastina]

why is town!ari more likely to make that post than tris?

Because tris making that post is probably scum, but Ari making that post is far more likely to be a town-Aristophanes due to Aristophanes being Aristophanes.

You can't expect an action to universally always be scummy or always be townie with 100% accuracy and not take into account specific players. An action that might be generically in-general scummy can be a lock-scumtell for some players or a town indicator for other players even if in general it's scummy; an action that might generically in-general be townie can be a locktown level of town in some players...but also a dead giveaway that some players are actually scum.

25 is a post that, in general, generically speaking, I'd consider to be a scummy post to make.
From tris, I'd go one step further and say it's even a lockscum post.
But from Aristophanes, knowing him as a player, it's actually the opposite, a post that for him, indicates he's more likely to be town.

[mastina]

Who should I vote for?

Why did you ask this?

Oh I thought Dunnstral was a member of the hydra.

There's at least a fair chance he could be scum here, too.

[mastina]

Why should I?

So when I asked you why you asked the question earlier, what are you trying to do? Are you trying to sheep someone, or trying to question someone, or trying to get into the game, or what

I don’t know yet. If someone else gave you a good read, wouldn’t you follow it?

(I legit get strong scum-scum vibes from NicCage-Dunnstral's interactions.)

[mastina]

Could you like, elaborate on these reads instead of just saying town / scum? I'd especially like to see your reason behind the read on nona and thomas

Can I? Yes.

Will I?

Only if need be, and right now I don't feel the need to, so no.

[mastina]

VOTE: Gypyx

VOTE: NicCage.
While I still find DoubtingThomas's content to, overall, by and large, look hella-scummy, their push against Gypyx actually looks sincere to me and I can buy them being incredibly-scummy town that is making a push they believe in.

I do not buy that from NicCage, whose push is far far more forced and opportunistic.

[mastina]

V/LA until Wednesday or Thursday, depending on things

; will get to this game then.

[mastina]

(Well, then or sooner, could have time earlier.)

[mastina]

Mastina, do you have an opinion on Gypyx?

Sure do!

Hello y'all i'm a kind of reflexive role, could i get visits on me in the coming nights? Kthxbye

Town.

Nothing that I've seen has changed my mind about this.

The case on Gypyx was very thoroughly 'meh'--I saw it as something that actually looks sincere from DoubtingThomas, but the sincerity I felt from it did not inspire feelings of accuracy about the case.

mastina thinks I'm scum why?

Because the you-Nic interactions scream scum-scum and your play is highly lackluster; I'd like to think I know you as a player well enough to reliably get a read on when you're town and this game I'm not seeing the town at all.

I usually can see you as town from your first three or so posts at latest, generally speaking.

You've more than that and those townvibes are nonexistent.

[mastina]

And why that? What's the incentive to not give the reasons behind your reads?

A combination of laziness (I don't like to), feeling it's unnecessary (if the game doesn't need me to explain for it to progress, then I'd argue it's counterproductive to do so due to...), and reactions; I tend to get better reactions from not explaining than I do from explaining, and it leads to better dialogs overall than if I explain things in detail from the start.

Also I like narratives; I like to slowly work things up, with a slow buildup to the full case. Where I give nothing initially, give reactive pieces of reasons when catching up, more detailed reasons in a collective post and then if necessary expanding those collective reasons with extra detail into the fullblown case.

[mastina]

i think mastina is town here and her skye townread feels well thought out here

I feel like I should point out that, to my memory, Ari hasn't posted much since then so that's far from a locktown read on the Ari head (I still

lean

town on Ari, but he's not given enough to locktown him),

but that having been said

, I actually really like Mew's contributions. Granted, I don't think I have meta on Mew (and if I do, I can at least say that right now I don't remember it), but I can say that, without knowing Mew's meta, at least in isolation, I townread Mew's play here.

So.

Townread Mew's play albeit without meta to reaffirm it; weak townread on Ari's play with the caveat that he needs to post more; overall conclusion: probably a town slot, so yes, overall a townread.

my reads here:
probtown: mastina, plusjoyed, gypyx
leantown: skye, dt
null: akarin
leanscum: dunnstral
probscum: niccage

Welcome to my pocket, TGB; you're locktown now.
Only read here I have any disagreement with is Akarin, who I think is town here.

[mastina]

@Mastina, TGP
I'm gonna fight you on NicCage if it comes to that, but any interest in doing this with me instead?
VOTE: Dunnstral

Sure is, I'll wagon whichever is larger so long as my vote's not the hammer. (Unless of course we're okay with a hammer but I'd assume we're not. )

Btw since the MBOS large has ended, can I say I'm pretty sure this is the same TGP-town from that game, here?

He's vibing the same way he was with me that game, thus his repeat presence of pocketing me.

[mastina]

Mastina, I am curious about Dunnstral's usual play, do you think you could characterize it further?

Dunnstral is almost always a lurker, although he does have occasional rare callbacks to his glory days where he could keep up with the most active players in posting. That is to say, being inactive and being a lurker are not alignment-indicative for him. (And in the rare instances he's active, that, too, is not scum-indicative of him.)

However, Dunnstral as town just has this energy where there's a certain quality to his posting, where he looks town in spite of having done almost nothing.

And that's not present here.

And you, good sir, look a lot like his scumbuddy.

[mastina]

i'll case niccage later but y'all they're screaming scum

TGP I agree with your read, but I hope for the love of god that your page 10 posts weren't the case against NicCage because the case is such that it's likely to turn people off of the idea of wagoning Nic.

[mastina]

NicCage (2):

TheGoldenParadox, mastina

TheGoldenParadox (2):

SKYEscrapers, NicCage

Dunnstral (2):

Akarin, DoubtingThomas

Gypyx (1):

PlusJOYED

Akarin (1):

Gypyx

VOTE: Dunnstral
As promised!

[mastina]

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

Which is to say.

It can explain why slots that overall look like scum, have incidents of sincere pushes behind them.

[mastina]

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

For the record.
I don't care if it's 7-2 or 4-5.
I don't believe in a MBOS game a claim of just "neighbor" with nothing extra in it.
No power role, no neighborhood abilities, just neighbor?

The lack of power role claim makes me pretty sure that Dunnstral is not town, and given the lack of openly claiming 3p, presumably, scum (which is to say, nontown that cannot win with town, whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's).

[mastina]

dunn, so you are not town? it seems like that

Pretty much.

He's not showing an ounce of townness in his play; his claim is super-sketchy; he's shown no consistency in his story, stances, or views.

Seems to be a pretty strong candidate for lockscum.

[mastina]

if you townread plus, why?

The Empress

Also a meta read from MBOS Large, the same way that TGP is. It strongly seems like the same PlusJOYED from that game, combined with me also liking the content Plus has provided.

Literally the only way I could see Plus as nontown is if the game is 4-5 (and even then, Plus would probably be one of the four town players); if the game is 7-2, Plus is basically locktown.

[mastina]

When it comes to Nic btw: in the neighborhood if Dunnstral is scum (and all signs point to this), Nic cannot be scum with Dunn. In a 7-2 world, this clears Nic as Nic would by necessity be town (due to no scum-scum neighborhoods).
But in a 4-5 world, Nic's probably not town because his claim seems very much like a 3p claim, actually. The sorts of things he's doing don't seem to make sense as town, but fit as some form of 3p.

In either case, I prefer a Dunnstral elimination to a Nic one, and on future days we can reevaluate when we can more accurately determine 7-2 vs 4-5.

[mastina]

Well this changes things.

I would have taken Mastina for a setup reader, are you actually not?

You'd think that, but.
In MBOS 10, I made no less than three at minimum mechanical errors of mechanics in the OP of our topic.
I thought I could create a tracker every night; it was oneshot.
I thought contracts could get us points; they could not.
I thought that on D3 there would be a locked thread with no day phase and every player submitting to the mod a person they wanted to make bulletproof with everyone receiving one from those players.
I multiple times misremembered the points system of my own faction.

All that just from that one game, although the proof of those mechanical setup mistakes hasn't yet been released so while that game should be sufficient evidence, you can't actually view it yet so let me give you some others from other towngames of mine.

In this game, a critical point was my failure to have realized what the implications of the role flavorer were initially. It was a talking point so easily verifiable that I missed a game mechanic crucially in a spot, with my opening having been unaware of it.

I'm pretty sure I had mechanical confusion in this game, too (although to be fair, everyone did, not just me).

From the getgo start to finish I had a fundamental misunderstanding of the way Doubles Mafia worked.

And while I was far from unique in not grasping the game mechanics, everyone in this game, myself included, failed to grasp the game mechanics.

This is far from an extensive list of games where I made misplays about mechanics I had the information to access from the gamestart.

Suffice to say.

It happens more often than it doesn't.

I can track down dozens of extra examples.
So yes.
I do miss things, on occasion--but when they are brought to my attention, they lead to a fundamental change in my understanding of the way the game has unfolded and I reevaluate and reassess and come to a refined position. (Which, I admit, I did, but I was rushing when I last posted. I forget what else I was doing, but there was something else that came up so I had to rush my post without properly explaining my position, my bad on that, but will be getting into more detail now.)

[mastina]

Yeah, I'm still absolutely not voting Nic, this play doesn't make any sense at all from a Scum NicCage perspective.

I agree that Nic is 100% cleared if the game is 7-2. If it is not, then he at least sincerely believes Dunnstral is scum. I personally feel that in a 4-5 game he's probably one of the most likely players to be a 3p, although as unlikely as it may be he could still be town even then. (Basically I feel like there's no situation in which he is groupscum. In 7-2 he is town; in 4-5 it's possible albeit improbable he is town, but in 4-5 he's probably some benevolent 3p whose information is akin to my faction from the large, down to being in a neighborhood with another player.)

They are playing very surface level scummy, and shows no reevaluation

People who believe this bullshit are in need of a reality check by the way.

There are eight slots in this game for me to develop a read on.

Of them?

My read has changed on four of them.

I have literally changed my read on

half the players in the game

.
And Dunnstral is making the accusation that my reads haven't changed.

My read on NicCage has very very obviously evolved with time and new information.
My read on SKYEscrapers has changed no less than two times.
My read on DoubtingThomas has changed no less than two times.
And my read on TheGoldenParadox shifted into a solid locktown.

Do you want me to quote the posts showing these transitions in reads?
Because Dunnstral's pretty clearly full of shit here when saying I haven't reevaluated, when I have.

[mastina]

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies?

Dude you literally paraphrased your PT--are you telling me you think that paraphrase is in any way even remotely realistically fakeable?

I don't mean, "yes, in theory, it is theoretically possible to fake a neighborhood pt conversation like this".

I mean in practice, do you think YOU, with your overall knowledge about you and Dunnstral, without an actual neighborhood PT, are capable of having faked this, thought it was a good idea, and gone through with it? To have pulled an elaborate ruse?

Because if a player said "Dunnstral and NicCage are clearly faking a PT conversation and are actually scumbuddies".

I'd be tempted to lynch that player on the spot for pushing an obvious paranoia theory that blatantly violates occam's razor. Because the simplest, and most likely, explanation, is that the neighborhood is real. schadd_ likes to have neighborhoods in his games, and he would never make a scum-scum neighborhood, therefore the claim of one is very very very likely to be true, especially with the play to back it up.

I originally thought that the Nic-Dunnstral interactions reeked of scum-scum since your inthread treatment of each other reeked of being forced and faked--but you being in a neighborhood with Dunnstral provides the perfect explanation for that and turns it into a situation that makes total sense as being from town/"town" (if you're 3p).

Ergo.

You're not scum.

You're either town, or a 3p, but if you're a 3p you're effectively town anyway and thus, still town, and thus, still not scum, and thus, not a good elimination today or ever.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads.

Well obviously?
When I have made reads based off of no/wrong information, then when I get information that gives new context to the situation, including your neighborhood claim and the possibility of a 4-5 game, then that means the reads need to be updated to account for the new information.

And by the new information, Dunnstral remains scum but you become, instead of a scumbuddy with forced interactions with him, town (I feel like I should just say 'town' even though it'd be more accurate to say "town or benevolent 3p which is basically town") whose interactions with him were due to you having a neighborhood with him.

Like.
I was fucking right.
I said I thought your interactions with Dunnstral were faked and reeked of scum-scum.
They were, kinda sorta, 'faked'--not really, but they were due to you actually having a PT with Dunnstral.
But I had no way of knowing that your topic with Dunnstral wasn't a scum topic until you claimed it, did I?

Was it Mathblade himself who testified in MBOS 10 that masons look like scum? Someone did that game, at least, and a similar principle applies here for a neighborhood. Neighborhoods that're unclaimed can look like scumbuddies, until the neighborhood is revealed and that information puts to light that they are in fact, not scumbuddies, but neighbors who did have info about one another.

[mastina]

akarin's just voting whoever the fuck they want, yeah?

Yes, but I think that it's indicative of not-scum. (Again, for lack of better terminology and for the sake of simplicity, I'll just call any not-scum 'town' even though there is obviously always the chance of 3p. NicCage is thus, town, and I am going to say Akarin is as well.)

Akarin was one of the strongest earlier pushes of Dunnstral, and is now all over the place.
I think that's indicative of town who hasn't been able to lock the game down, because everything Akarin is doing feels sincere and genuine and I can see the thought progression even though I feel like Akarin going from pushing Dunnstral to defending him was a mistake.

[mastina]

Newb or scum. Tbd which

My initial impression was in fact scum, but DoubtingThomas's push on Gypyx, while I disagreed with it, looked sincere.

However, I'm reassessing that and thinking it might be possible to be scum again (need to double-check DoubtingThomas's Dunnstral stance), with the sincere push being due to believing that there's 3ps in the game that can be genuinely scumhunted while being scum.

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions,

two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

.
This reads like a 5 self aligned rather than 7 town 2 mafia. Would love to be surprised though.

Emphasis added. There cannot be five 3ps with none of them being scum, because per schadd_, if the game is 4-5, then at least two of the 5 are a scumteam, with the remaining 3 being...whatever the fuck they'd be. (So it'd be more accurately represented as 4-2-x-x-x, but I've been saying 4-5 for the sake of simplicity even though that's not quite accurate, because the game does have two scum minimum, guaranteed, due to them having a mutual wincon and pt. Yaknow. The powers of a scum faction.)

Assuming I buy your argument the claims are inverse. And I cannot say why without being proscum/neut.

Well the only way I can explain why I think it's a potential town indicator for Ari is to explain what about it I think is town--which would allow Ari to fake it if he's not town.

Do you want me to explain what I saw in there as town or wait for more Ari posts? Because my preference is the latter, but if you insist on seeing my logic, I'll do the former if you ask me to.

[mastina]

Majority of thread is dissonant with you yet you’re not worried. Why?

Because the majority of the thread isn't dissonant with me and agrees that Dunnstral is probably scum?

Like.

At least five or six players have said that they thought Dunnstral was possibly scum.

The minority are the ones who have said they think Dunn is town;

they

are the ones dissonant with the majority.

Heck, even aside from Dunnstral, most of my reads are far from dissonant with others. People agreed with my DoubtingThomas suspicion; people agreed with my initial take on SKYEscrapers although I admit that seeing them as possibly town is a bit dissonant with others; I think Akarin is 50-5o on people townreading and scumreading her so I wouldn't call that a dissonant read; I believe most players are townreading Gypyx with only one or two scumreading the slot which means that my townread there isn't dissonant;

What reads of mine are in the minority?
Because I've felt fairly good with them and I've not seen very strong objections to my takes with most people agreeing with them.

You’re expecting me to buy you didn’t read the OP as town?

No, but I'm expecting you to buy that I missed a detail that I wouldn't fucking fake missing because missing it gives me zero benefit and in fact is detrimental to scumastina to have missed and that my lack of knowledge about it is sincere because I was genuinely unaware because in spite of reading, I didn't catch that detail about the game.

You know me; I don't fucking lie about things like this. I didn't see it. I don't know how I missed it, but I did, and once I was made aware of it, adjusted accordingly.

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714
If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

From the very first page, Dunnstral in that game immediately is not only more active than he's been this game, but also radiates townness, which he hasn't this game.

In that game I could tell from page one that Dunnstral was town.

In this game, there's no such townvibes radiating from him.

Like, Dunnstral that game and Dunnstral this game is the difference between night and day.
That game you linked isn't proof that Dunnstral is town; it's proof that Dunnstral is scum.

[mastina]

This is what I think. Mastina has spent the entirety of D1, before the above post at any rate, saying Dunn and I are scum together. IF she flips scum, I think that it very unlikely that she guessed that by random chance.

I guessed you were scum-scum with Dunnstral because the you-Dunnstral interactions felt entirely unnatural--I was not the only one to have made this observation, either. I was just the most prominent player to have made that stance and take.

As it turns out, your interactions were in fact unnatural with Dunnstral--I just got the reason wrong. Instead of being scum-scum forced awkward distancing as I had assumed, it was due to you two being in a neighborhood.

I do not have any information about the existence of a neighborhood in my role (spoiler alert; I am a pr but I would be a disastrously bad pr to claim D1).

So I did in fact, 'guess' it--but not by random chance; by deducing from the facts in front of me and forming a conclusion from them that happened to be mistaken because it was made out of

lacking

that information.

If I knew you were in a neighborhood with Dunnstral, then the play wouldn't be to push you as scum-scum, especially not by voting Dunnstral. I'd be pushing you two as hard-town. But I didn't because I didn't know.

Furthermore, let’s assume Dunn wants to be eliminated. Scum generally don’t want to be eliminated. This makes him either 3P or town with a death wish. I don’t anticipate in a micro if it’s a 2 scum game scum Dunn wanting to be eliminated D1. Dunn’s been around much too long for that.

Nothing in Dunnstral's play suggests he wants to be eliminated. He's, quite the opposite, being survivalistic.

[mastina]

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

For the record on my part.
I can't figure it out because there's too many candidates.

• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

Because I could see it as being any of these. (Tho given the nature of my role, if I had to guess, it might be Firefly?)

[mastina]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

For the record.

This is the sort of crazy I think comes from a town-Mathblade.

It's not an absolute read (I did think Mathblade's crazy last game was town for quite a long time when it was him being scum trying to desperately further his wincon, which is what keeps it from being absolute), but it is still a pretty damn strong read, in that I don't think this is desperate-scum-Mathblade; I think this is genuinely town Mathblade, albeit one whose stances overlap partially with mine yet by and large diverge from mine in ways that I feel we can potentially sort and end up getting closer to being on the same page due to that partial overlap in spite of strong divergence.

Basically.

I feel like, while 3ps could be any number of people, in either 7-2 or 4 town, there's a large number of players that are town or "town".
You, Mathblade, TGP, Gypyx, and NicCage all come to mind.
Which leaves a small pool for scum, given this is a micro.
One which I think is {Dunnstral, DoubtingThomas} probably, with an ouside chance of SKYEscrapers (who in the 4 town scenario would be second only to NicCage in toping my 'probably benevolent 3p list').

[mastina]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

Btw since the MBOS large has ended, can I say I'm pretty sure this is the same TGP-town from that game, here?

He's vibing the same way he was with me that game, thus his repeat presence of pocketing me.

^I can maybe elaborate more on that when more lucid.

Speaking of things I want to do when more lucid:

Assume Nic is truthtelling, then Dunn has at best a 10% chance at group scum and 0% at 3P. Assume Nic is lying, eliminate Nic, problem solved.

I feel like Nic is guaranteed to not be scum here, albeit not necessarily having told the entire truth about his role, and even if he has told the entire truth about his role, I don't see why we'd eliminate him for it given that him flipping town wouldn't give us any more information than we have today. I feel like, given the lack of 100% townness on Dunnstral and the strong play-based evidence that Dunn is scum, he's the far better elimination today.

But that said,

I think this is genuinely town Mathblade, albeit one whose stances overlap partially with mine yet by and large diverge from mine in ways that I feel we can potentially sort and end up getting closer to being on the same page due to that partial overlap in spite of strong divergence.

I think we can work out this stuff better...when I am not half-asleep.

[mastina]

Fair warning: am very heavily groggy from having both not slept well last night, not gotten enough sleep, but also having gotten too much sleep, all at once.

Still tho.

Deadline being near means I need to be here in spite of how I'd prefer to not be.

Have you ever heard the phrase town cares about probability while scum cares about possibility?

For the record, Math.

I do admit.
When it comes to Dunn/Nic.
There is a dilemma.

I agree with you that Nic's claim is heavily suspect. 90% town 10% scum as an informed role doesn't make sense, especially not as a town role.
Nic's handling of it is bizarre and the number of times he's had to clarify and update the claim is also weird and worrying. Overall, there's a fairly large amount of evidence suggesting his claim is fake.

And in the world where it, somehow, is not fake, then by 90% probability versus 10% possibility, Dunnstral would be disproportionately likely to be town.

So yes. I live in a world where I don't trust Nic's claim, but if I were to, then Dunnstral should logically have a much higher chance of being town.

The problem is, by play all the facts overwhelmingly say that Nic is town-or-3p here, and that Dunnstral is scum here.
Dunnstral is not really scumhunting; he is lurking by and large. He's not contributing and he's not giving off townvibes at all.
He radiates the vibe of scum godfather, in being cheeky scum that knows he's obviously scum but is getting away with being obviously scum due to a "clear" on him.

His play literally fits that to a T.

And NicCage's play doesn't look like scum.
There is genuine scumhunting from him.
His takes look hard to fake, if not impossible. To be scum, he'd need to fake town-paranoia of me-Dunn as a team, fake town-paranoia of Dunnstral, and fake a push on Dunnstral made from scumhunting; basically, for him to be scum goes into beyond-master-level-scum-performances. I don't think he can be scum faking it, and I don't think scum thinking there's 3ps in here makes the claim Nic did and is able to fake the things he did.

Which is to say.

I know that by mechanics, NicCage's claim makes him most likely either scum or 3p...but by play he is very overwhelmingly town, to the point where I can't see how he plays this way as scum. I can't see it as scum. I can very very very easily see Nic's play as 3p, but I can't see it, from play, as being scum.

I know that by mechanics, if you trust NicCage's claim to be true, Dunnstral is most likely town...but by play he is very overwhelmingly acting like callous scum that doesn't give a damn due to being cocky that the Nic claim will protect him.

Dunnstral is not acting like an IC, like town who knows they are conftown and is using that to push leverage on things.
Dunnstral is acting like a Godfather, like scum who know they are being falsely 'cleared' and is using that to justify not putting any semblance of so much as pretending to be protown.

For me, what seems like the simplest and most likely explanation is that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is just scum, since it's the best way I can think of to reconcile the mechanical information with the play based information. If Nic is a 3p whose claim isn't 100% accurate, then the information on Dunnstral being 90% town isn't accurate.

In the scenario that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is scum, Nic's claim being suspect makes sense (because he's 3p), and his information not being accurate makes sense, and him looking overwhelmingly town by play makes sense (because as a 3p, he's not scum), and Dunnstral looking overwhelmingly scum by play makes sense (because as a presumable scum, him exploiting a 3p makes sense).

But that's the only scenario in which the mechanical reads and the play-based reads both make sense together.

In all other worlds, they clash with one being wrong.
If Nic is not a 3p, then either the mechanical suspicions are wrong (and he is somehow legitimately town in spite of the whack roleclaim) or the play read is wrong (and he has somehow faked this play as scum).
If Nic's information is real, then either the mechanical probability is wrong (and Dunnstral is the 10% scum), or the play read is wrong (and Dunnstral, in spite of overwhelmingly looking like scum, is somehow town).

So basically, there's three worlds to consider.
Mechanics-wrong; play-wrong; neither wrong, with Nic as 3p but with a bogus claim and Dunn as scum.

Do you see where I'm coming from here?

[mastina]

Assume Nic is 3P and all prior statements are true. There is then no chance Nic thinks Dunn is scum, he’d be thinking 3P.

The thing about that is.
If Nic is 3p and knows we're in a game with four town and five self-aligned players, with himself as one of the five.

He would still be operating under the, very justified, assumption that two of the self-aligned players function as a scumteam. There's multiple reasons for this. For one, the town wincon. "You win if all threats to the town are eliminated." Speaking from experience in schadd_ games, only factions whose wincon requires the town to lose count as threats to the town (the Society had a chance to cause everyone not them to lose--but were not threats to the town, because they could win with the town). In other words, at least one player in the five nontown must have a scum-or-sk wincon, and per schadd_'s phrase here...

two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

Two nontown share a PT and share, mutually, between them, a wincon in some fashion or another.

If the game has four town and five nontown.
Then among the five nontown there must be a threat to the town, who need to be eliminated for the town to win. In this scenario, the threat to the town must have a wincon mutually exclusive to the town's wincon, else they are not classified as a threat.
In this scenario, we can then hypothesize that, in all probability, that of the five nontown, the two who share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon are by far the most likely to be the ones with a wincon mutually exclusive to the town--and by that logic, for all intents and purposes, these two players would be "scum".

Thus.
If Nic is a 3p.
Then I can see him thinking that Dunnstral is scum.
I can also see Nic as a 3p who was lying in his claim, thinking that Dunnstral is scum.

Basically.
Logically speaking.
Regardless of 7-2 or four town five nontown.
This game is going to have two scum/"scum" in very high chances.

So a 3p player can and will still scumhunt for scum.

[mastina]

I think I can explain it better than there, so let me put it more simply.
If the game is four town and five nontown, there must still be a threat to the town--the town win if that threat is eliminated. Otherwise, the game isn't mafia because the town could never lose. There MUST be a threat to them that could cause them to lose.
If there must be a threat to the town, it must be a nontown player(s) whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town--from experience, if a 3p exists whose wincon isn't mutually exclusive with the town's, then they are not classified as a threat to the town. After all, if said 3p fills their non-mutually-exclusive wincon, then the town doesn't lose from it (at least not directly).
If there must be a threat whose wincon is mutually exclusive to the town's, then for lack of better terminology the only factions which make sense are 'serial killer', 'cult', or 'mafia/werewolf/scum'. There must be at least one of these, but no more than four of these.

Given the game size, a D1 town win (from just one threat to the town) seems unlikely.
Given the small number of town in the game if there's 4 town, 3/4 mutually-exclusive-to-town seems unlikely.
Therefore, the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town is two.

schadd_ has stated that of the nontown, two will share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon.

It is not much of a leap from "the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town, is two", and "schadd stated that of the nontown, two share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon", to conclude that the two players who share a PT with mutuality in wincon, are the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon.

If you make that leap, then for all intents and purposes, the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon, who share a PT and have some mutuality in their wincon, are for all intents and purposes, Scum.

So if a player is 3p, they still have good reason to scumhunt, because they still have good reason to believe that there's scum in the game.

Is this logical progression clear enough?

[mastina]

Have you played in/read any TGP scum games to compare?

TGP has a blessing where if I am a player in a game with him, a reviewer in a game with him, or the mod of a game with him, he will always be town.

No joke!

I just spent half an hour or so searching his games--I did find two Normals where he did roll scum, but as it so happens, I reviewed neither of them and thus did not watch the play of either of them, so genuinely?

No, I have not played in/read any TGP scumgames to compare.
The dude is like, permanently a town player.
Given his relatively low amount of scumgames tho, I could try a cold secondhand meta-read of his scumgame, but it'd be with the caveats that,
1: cold meta reads are notoriously unreliable and very much not accurate, and,
2: It'd take a lot of time to do to sift through and get a grasp.

But I will say that, TGP's play here looks like what I've seen from him as town;
Even without meta, his play resonates with me as being town due to what he's seeing and what he's pushing.

I realize a lack of scum meta familiarity weakens both of those but I still think he's probably town anyway. A lack of a scum meta for him hasn't kept me from accurately townreading him before.

[mastina]

Maybe look at his behavior around the original deadline.

To me Gypyx has been town from the getgo and every step of the way that has been strengthened, including at the original deadline.

This is another case, similar to my Ari-read (btw the overall lack of posts from SKYEscrapers near deadline should be a red flag that automatically puts them back in the suspect pool), where I could explain it but I feel like it'd be detrimental to do so as it'd allow for Gypyx to fake the behavior that I saw as town.

[mastina]

(btw the overall lack of posts from SKYEscrapers near deadline should be a red flag that automatically puts them back in the suspect pool)

I think this is a big talking point worthy of emphasizing to people.

We are at deadline--

where did SKYEscrapers disappear to?

Keep in mind that they are a hydra that I think has three members?
Why have none of them been around? They haven't posted for nearly two days, yet Ari has been online today, and tris was online yesterday.

Why did neither of them come here within the last two days?

[mastina]

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
^^ From the OP best you’ll get on mobile.
If all the 3Ps are dead if it is a 3P game we win by default.
If it’s a scum game when all the scum are dead.

Math if the game is 4 town with five nontown, then the town has a minority on D1 and likely for the whole game.

Therefore, if the game is 4 town and five nontown, the vast majority of the nontown

must

be pro-town--think like how MBOS10 had two, separate, 3ps that were heavily protown.

This game needs to have that. There needs to be town-friendly 3ps if the game has only four town.

Therefore, trying to eliminate 3ps isn't productive; we should be trying to eliminate scum.

And I have very strong reason to believe that even if the game is 4 town 5 nontown, the game has a scum faction.
Because

I have

very

strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill

.

[mastina]

If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

Where does schadd say this?

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread.

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?

Because between me knowing that there is an antitown faction that possesses a nightkill.
And there being a guarantee that in a 3p world there's a group of two who have mutuality in their wincon and a PT.
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

[mastina]

Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P. He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

But he can be,
1: nonmalevolent 3p who was lying about his information,
2: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information but didn't understand it properly,
3: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information, but thinks that Dunnstral is Mafia and assumes Mafia is a malevolent faction this game.

None of these feel improbable/impossible to me; all feel at

least

plausible, if not

probable

.

[mastina]

Mastina, do you still townread Math as hard as you were before, especially the couple pages before this (when you get to it.)

More and more, yes.
This is the reasonable Mathblade, the Mathblade whose logic may delve into moonlogic at times but whose base pushes and reasonings are largely outside of that zone.

I'm MORE sure of Mathblade being town here than I ever was before, specifically due to the fact that if Mathblade were scum, I'd expect him to, so to speak, be more "crazy" than he is right now. More bullheaded, more stubborn, more irrational, more controlling or complaining about controlling behavior from others.

But this Mathblade is actively trying to work with others, reach out to them, be reasonable, be open, be withdrawn from making absolute hard stances, has flexibility, etc. Just all-around. Town.

I'd really like to hear your reasoning on TGP in more detail

Basically.
Every time I have played with TheGoldenParadox.
His posts resonate with me a lot, with me seeing his logic, where he is coming from, his reasoning, and by and large, me agreeing with almost all of it, but critically, not literally every word of it. Where there's very significant overlap, but no absolute copy of stances. His reads/reasons aren't meant to buddy me, with him having developed them on his own, and yet I follow them start to finish and find them to be a very organic process that I can see forming from town but have trouble seeing scum come to.

But yes, I admit, I've no experience with him as scum.

[mastina]

The only way I see Sky as scum is 3P if it matters to you Mastina.

Still tho.

I've like one or two reasons to townread SKYEscrapers, both of which are weakened in a 3p world, and rather a number of reasons to scumread them so if they are a "3p", there's a fair chance it's malevolent (i.e. that they're scum).

[mastina]

—-This is definitionally false

What makes it definitionally false?
A nonmalevolent 3p is a 3p whose wincon is not mutually exclusive with the town.
A nonmaleveloent 3p whose wincon is not mutually exclusive with the town may still have reason to lie if it is not beneficial to their wincon.

—-This version unvotes when pushing conf!Town he’s has many chances.

Akarin has characterized NicCage's play as tunneling and I am inclined to by and large agree--confirmation bias is enough of a reason for that lack of unvote.

—- This version Nic himself rejected.

Can you quote the post where Nic said this so I can look at the exact wording? Because I saw nothing from him saying this. So I have a feeling you interpreted a post of his in a way that I didn't interpret it.

[mastina]

—-This is definitionally false

What makes it definitionally false?
A nonmalevolent 3p is a 3p whose wincon is not mutually exclusive with the town.
A nonmaleveloent 3p whose wincon is not mutually exclusive with the town may still have reason to lie if it is not beneficial to their wincon.

*A nonmalevolent 3p whose wincon is not mutually exclusive with the town may still have reason to lie if it is beneficial to their wincon to lie/if it is not beneficial to their wincon to tell an absolute truth.
(I crossed streams and combined half of one with half of another when saying either would convey my intended meaning but half of one and half of the other conveys the opposite of my meaning.)

[mastina]

Schadd says Math is right about the meaning of “mafia” in my role. So if we are in a 3p game, Dunn has to be town. But Math, honestly that just makes me think Dunn is scum even more, because now there is no complicating factor of 3p. I still can’t believe as town he would let it get to this without lifting a finger to defend himself in private.

@Mastina here you go.

To me that read as Nic making an assumption, not an absolute definitive declaration.
As in.
He says "so if we are in a 3p game, Dunn has to be town"--this read to me as not mod knowledge from schadd_, but him making an assumption.

[mastina]

Schadd says X is literally claiming the mod said something.

Yes--he said "schadd says X"...to the

first sentence

. "schadd said Mathblade is right about the meaning of 'mafia' in my role". That is, in fact, claiming the mod says something, clearly and unambiguously. The first sentence is him clearly saying mod info.

Not so much for the second. The second is what I was calling as looking like an assumption, rather than absolute knowledge.

It looks like, "the mod said this info (from the first sentence; mod info), therefore this is the case (this, from the second sentence, reads as an assumption from him)".

So I want to hear more from Nic and for him to be more explicit on the case.

In essence.
As much as you grilled him, I think you missed a critical step in the grilling, one which is of importance to have it be answered, rather than you just assuming it is answered already.

[mastina]

NicCage:

Does your information confirm that Mafia, as a faction, cannot be present in a 4-town version of the game?
Does your information confirm that Mafia, as a faction, cannot be a 3p?
Does your information confirm that Mafia, as a faction, must be the only threats to the town (i.e., that Mafia can only exist in a 7-2 world)?

[mastina]

The last question imho is misleading. May I reword it?

Sure, I was struggling to find a way to be thorough. (Pointing out that we don't have all the info/answers doesn't guarantee that I have the ability to word a question that'll get us there. )

[mastina]

Can some of the non-MathBlade people please chime in more?

Hi I am mastina and my name is not Mathblade and thus I can chime in with this:

My townbloc, as in, town that I think can work together to solidly lock the game down, is:
{Akarin, Mathblade, TheGoldenParadox}.
If you want to throw in locktown reads, throw in Gypyx in there as well, who I don't see as having the same ability to work well with us but who I think is town.

That's four names; I am a fifth.

That leaves four names remaining:
{DoubtingThomas, SKYEscrapers, NicCage, Dunnstral}.

Regardless of 7-2 or 4 town, I believe that the game's scum are found in the four above; if the game's got four town, then the above contain the scum/'scum' of the game along with 3ps that aren't scum. In either case, they contain the players with the highest chances of flipping nontown.

Of them, Nic's by far the towniest by play, but with a fairly sketchy claim;
Dunnstral's by far the scummiest by play, but if Nic's claim is legitimate, has a fair chance to not be scum;
DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers are both, conditionally, possible scum candidates regardless.

[mastina]

So with Mathblade being town.
Nic being town.
Dunnstral being impossible to be 3p as per Nic's information (thus, either town or scum, per Nic 90-10 on that).
And me being town.

I think we can safely rule out the game being four town only.

Not all mods obey the have you extend deadline rules. Especially on other sites. Are you sure you’re not forcing MS meta onto G?

Also, would like to add to this that schadd_'s wording was ambiguous on the matter--I, personally, interpreted schadd_'s wording as, "deadline is frozen until a replacement comes in and will be extended once one comes in", but the wording was ambiguous enough that a valid interpretation of it was, "deadline is still what it is, but will be extended when the slot is filled", meaning that if the slot wasn't filled by deadline, by that interpretation, the deadline would still go through.

They were told at least twice and Iirc twice during the kerfuffle as well and they still refused to listen.

Were they? You empty-quoted schadd_, but that doesn't count as being told, because schadd_'s wording there is ambiguous. I personally interpreted it the correct way, but the wording there is not cut-and-dry 100% unambiguous as you're painting it as clearly being definitely "deadline is on hold right now and will be extended upon the replacement".
Because seeking a replacement for a slot incurring a deadline extension could also mean that whatever game phase the game is in, beit day or night, it will be extended to accommodate for the replacement.

TGP asked if we were getting an extension, but he was questioning it, not stating it as a fact.

Also, tellingly, Akarin also had that deadline rush, yet you focus on Gypyx alone for it.

Gypyx made it clear how he was interpreting schadd_'s post. He thought a deadline extension would only happen with a replacement coming in, and lacking a replacement coming in, that deadline would pass and we'd have a no-elimination D1 as a consequence.

TGP also pushed for the deadline hammer, too.

Suffice to say: pushing the idea that Gypyx was paranoia-pushing for a mislynch off of an 'obviously' wrong interpretation of schadd_'s post is...not an accurate reflection of that point in the game at all.
Akarin wasn't sure an extension was a thing; TGP pushed for a deadline elimination; it only became clear and unambiguous that there would be a deadline extension after the original time for deadline passed without the thread locking in a no-elimination.

VOTE: SKYEscrapers
I actually think this is the best vote here right now.

[mastina]

Hey it works. Hammer was done. Better safe than no elim.

(There's also the cognitive dissonance between people displaying this attitude now towards the extended deadline, but not recognizing this very same attitude being displayed for the original deadline when the circumstances behind a replacement-extension were not as clear-cut as they present.)

[mastina]

@Mastina
Who do you think are likely partners for SKYE? Who do you think is really unlikely?

In terms of unlikely, the only people who I think are incredibly unlikely to be SKYE partners are players I'm already townreading--Gypyx and TheGoldenParadox. (I could maybe go through the entire thread to go into more depth about interactions, but these two stand out as the obvious not-SKYE-scumbuddy slots.)

In terms of people who're likely partners for SKYEscrapers, Dunnstral fits (aside from the 90%-mechanical-town he fits as looking like scum in every way shape and form and his interactions with SKYEscrapers do seem scum-scum) and so does DoubtingThomas.

When it comes to this game, I legit think that it's a poe win--you're town; I'm town; Gypyx is town; TheGoldenParadox is town. That's 4/7 of the living players, which means that there's two scum in three names--SKYEscrapers, DoubtingThomas, and Dunnstral.

Even if we misfire today on one of the three, we got an autowin if we just eliminate the other two on D3 and D4.

I think Dunnstral is scummy as fuck, but because of the mechanically-90%-to-be-town I don't think he's the best elimination today.
So my preference would be SKYEscrapers or DoubtingThomas today.

[mastina]

hey, mastina. why was nic's claim suspect?

While I did technically say this, it is a little bit of bad faith to present the argument I said it.
I said it in one post, a post specifically directed towards Mathblade, who was of the opinion NicCage's claim was suspect. I used the word 'suspect' in reference to NicCage's claim specifically in that one post only, to specifically talk to Mathblade about it. I otherwise would never have used the word 'suspect' because the word 'suspect' has a connotation that implies a level of suspicion that was nonexistent. (I do craft my word usage towards my audience. Mathblade was my audience so I crafted my word usage to speak specifically to him and appeal to him.)

I felt that NicCage's claim was of dubious authenticity, which you could describe as a 'suspect' claim--but I never thought that the dubious authenticity claim was suspicious from Nic. I thought that Nic was either town or 3p, never scum, from his claim. Nic's claim looked somewhat-doubtful as being a town claim, so I thought it was probably a 3p claim, until it was shown that it could only be town or scum, and if forced between town or scum, I'd have thought, in spite of the dubious nature of the claim, town.

As for why I was of the opinion that NicCage's claim was of dubious authenticity, you've got like four or five players' worth of isos explaining the why--the claim of percentage of town-mafia 90-10, then pushing the 10, then the confusion around the 3p possibilities, meant that there was a whole lot of things that painted a confusing, inconsistent, narrative. But push come to shove, I'd have still thought that, in spite of that, Nic was more likely town than scum due to his play making more sense as town that didn't have a full grasp of his role and how he did seek clarification and did get, consistent, answers from the mod.

[mastina]

why was that claim in the abstract bad? to me, it seemed like exactly the sort of thing that schadd would do in a mbos.

Because percentage-based roles seem like the sort of thing schadd_ would put in the OP as a possibility with them not actually being a real thing. schadd_'s sample roles for every MBOS game have been roles that don't actually exist and never exist in any MBOS game past present or future, but which serve to highlight the sort of thing that schadd_ could do.

Very much akin to:

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread.
complementary slackness can be expected to hold given the typical assumptions.

the nine roles in this game each took inspiration from one of the following sentences which were provided to me by list moderator Isis:

• Larger radars usually are used for longer range, while radars designed for detailed imaging of objects may be smaller.
  
• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• Five lefts make a left.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

sample townie PM:

welcome to micro 976! you are a

town horificunx.

if you at any point share separate neighborhoods with exactly two other players, you may choose one of them to be killed and one of them to exit the game in a victory. if both of them were mafia, you must recruit a player from outside of the game to become a neutral survivor.

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

please confirm by telling me what the bolded green text says.

A percentage-based role looks like it's in the realm of horificunx, or maybe a statement that is obviously nonsense but which technically could be true.

So yes, I didn't think schadd_ would actually do it.
Most schadd_ roles in MBOS games are still based on normal role mechanics, by and large, even if they have modifications to them. Investigitoirs, as an example of a recurring schadd_ role, are based on a Cop, but function more in practice like a Gunsmith or even a Neapolitan, in that common to the role is innocents being definitely innocent, but guilties not being inherently guilty. Invented roles tend to also serve to still be similar to existing roles, and not all schadd_ roles are even new roles!

A percentage-based Informed felt like it was out of place as a genuine town claim, something that

could

exist, because it could be a thing schadd_ could do in theory, but something that's unlikely to actually exist in that form, thus the doubt. I thought a role like that might fit for 3p, but it's obviously not now, with the benefit of end of day info.

Are we waiting for something? Akarin, vote for mastina. DoubtingThomas, vote for Akarin. And then TheGoldenParadox, decide between mastina or Akarin. This doesn't take 10 days.

Or how about we don't mislynch one of the two towniest slots in the game and instead eliminate in the pool that has a 2/3rds chance of containing scum?

And it's weird how silent this game has gotten to me.

You have recency bias; the game has always been this silent, except for around deadline. It wasn't until just before Mathblade replaced in (due to possible deadline rush) and then continuing after he replaced in (due to definite deadline + Mathblade being an active presence engaging every player) that things were active.

This game has 14-day deadlines, right?
We were inactive for 13 or so days before we picked up activity for like two days or so.

I'd love to take up the mantle and be the proactive driving force engaging every player, but...I don't have it in me right now. (As in, generic right now, not right now as in specific to this moment of this day, early 11/18/2020. Not specific to today, just in general, I don't have it in me to engage every player, don't have that energy, I'm far more reactive right now.)

[mastina]

(To give you an idea.
The game was 18 or so pages before deadline rush.
And about 36 by the day's end--the game literally doubled in length in less than four days.)

[mastina]

I have a Mastina meta question for Dunn/Ari but I don't want to ask it until after Ari has actually caught up.

I mean.
I can answer any meta question about me and it'll still be accurate.
I don't lie about my meta; if anything, asking others about my meta is more of a way to judge the alignment of those others. If they're inaccurate, probably scum; if they're accurate, then it doesn't make them town but it's at least not a scum indicator.

[mastina]

well, it's effectively a two person hydra. summer has just not been here.

Hot take: Summer basically flaked from the hydra due to the hydra being scum, and the work being done behind the scenes rather than openly out here in the thread is also a consequence of that alignment.

[mastina]

What's the case on SKYEscrapers apart from them not liking my behaviour at the first deadline? I don't think i've seen anything else

SKYEscrapers was a three-headed hydra.
One head hasn't played the game at all.
Aristophanes has played the game, very very briefly, but is not being actively gamesolvey and is largely absent.
The hydra has allegedly done scumhunting behind closed doors, but the proof/evidence of it in this thread is basically nonexistent, with several of the things having had no reason to be kept in private if they were town.
Ari is playing exactly like I would expect from him as scum by and large; there's no whimsy to his posts, there's no lightheartedness, there's also no strong solving from him--the suspicions he has presented have had very very flawed, self-evidently wrong logic to them, such as the misrepresentation of your play that anyone actually looking at the play in question can tell is disingenuous as fuck of a representation of those events.
tris has herself been, overall, suspicious as well.

I'm not saying that they're 100% completely all scum. They do have townier moments, both from tris and Ari.

But given that this game is easily poe'd and that there's two scum in three names, and SKYEscrapers is one of the three possible scum? The fact that they have barely any town indicators, but many fairly strong scum indicators, means that in the balance of probability, they're probably scum.

[mastina]

Mastina, is your TGP townread just as solid as it was last time you mentioned it?

Yes. They have felt solidly town to me the whole game, and their thought process and such feels very town, with me able to follow the reasons and conclusions, and largely agreeing with a lot of them and understanding where they are coming from even with the ones I know/think to be wrong. (e.g. their doubt of my townness.)

TGP has just seemed like a beacon of towniness this game, and I don't see anything to make me doubt that.

[mastina]

I mean there are 4 and a bit pages in D2 and literally a quarter of the psts are from this hydra. Why is there whining about our activity levels?

Because most of those posts are from tris, not you, and there's also a quality issue with them--tris posts contain a much lower degree of content compared to...well, literally every player I can think of except Dunnstral and maybe DoubtingThomas.

Nvm I found it.

When it comes to this game, I legit think that it's a poe win--you're town; I'm town; Gypyx is town; TheGoldenParadox is town. That's 4/7 of the living players, which means that there's two scum in three names--SKYEscrapers, DoubtingThomas, and Dunnstral.

I mean, this is a false dichotomy and that's kind of unnerving. Youre setting up people to be limmed and basically have made a list that can carry potential mislims to a literal endgame state. Get one, "oops that was town the other two are confscum" at 5p, get another, leaving a 2:1 scum majority and win. If you are scum taking control this is a great strat but we should deeeeefinitely be wary of it.

I'll look at the other two slots, especially since I've forgotten most of my reads this game while I was away, but it feels really off.

Oh, and what about it feels off?

I know myself to be town and if necessary can case it pretty damn well because this is nowhere even remotely near my scumgame. (I'd prefer to scumhunt rather than defend myself, but if defending myself leads to the elimination of scum via poe not including me, then I'll do so.) Even if I couldn't, push come to shove, my role is 100% never a scum role (and I never lie about my role so it is guaranteed to be 100% a realclaim and is also a role that, to some extent, when I claim I will have a player able to verify at least one part of my roleclaim), so I am basically at the point of "any player who knows me and yet is fingering me as suspect, is themselves automatically suspect for it". (There's a difference between a player thinking I could be scum out of paranoia, like TGP, and someone actively saying I am a likely scum candidate, like Ari and Dunn.)

Gypyx has seemed town to me the entire game long. The thinking of Akarin scumslipping, while clearly wrong, is not a scum thought process; the handling of the initial deadline panic was incredibly town, and overall the slot has radiated towniness the whole time, I didn't pay much attention to Gypyx's claim (in hindsight, given my role, I probably should've tried to verify it but Gypyx was not my N1 target), but it sounds pretty damn believable and probable as a town role, I've liked the trajectory behind the evolution of his reads and his thought process, and while he's holding onto an Akarin suspicion for longer than I feel he should, I can understand him still having that read (even if it is clearly wrong). This is particularly evident if you read his posts in iso; you can see how he gets from point a to point b rather easily within.

Gypyx, as it so happened, also happens to be a good example of what to do when busy and/or on v/la. Gypyx's activity did drop due to the v/la, but the content kept rolling in--in stark contrast to the SKYEscrapers hydra whose v/la bouts come with a notable lack thereof. And to borrow a phrase from TGP, Gypyx just

radiates

town energy.

Akarin has been a voice of reason and sanity the whole game long as well as a beacon of sanity. I've agreed with the vast majority of Akarin's reads and reasons, but critically, not literally all of them. Akarin has been showing clear gamesolving the entire time, trying to get the town on the same page, providing solid reasoning and trying to find the truth. Akarin is never pushing an agenda, Akarin isn't trying to destroy town pushes on scum (the closest to this being possible is possibly Akarin's reversal on Dunnstral but that's not a scum indicator unless Dunnstral is actually scum and even were Dunnstral scum I'd think it more likely that Akarin's town that was wrong).

TheGoldenParadox has had well-thought-out stances the entire game long and has been scumhunting from the getgo. They definitely didn't perform the nightkill last night, and they've been showing well-reasoned, solid stances from the getgo and with good logic backing them. While they've had less posts than most players, this is not alignment-indicative for them, because they ALWAYS have less posts than most players. Given the size of the game and its relative inactivity, their posting rate is quite fine, it's actually better than it'd be in a large. They've basically been doing the same thing Akarin has been doing...just over fewer posts.

I'm saving this section for last as it pertains to all three--while I lack experience with all three of theirs' scumgames, and in two cases, lack real exposure to their towngames, too...their play this game, all three slots, just radiate being town. And in TGP's case, perfectly match what I'd expect from their towngame.


So, Ari.
On what grounds am I wrong about the above?

Which of those townreads, with pretty damn strong backing, would you say is wrong?

[mastina]

Also what, you townread the whole "fake deadline" crew? For what reason!? There *has* to be scum there imo.

On what grounds must there be scum in a group of players showing concern that we'll have no D1 elimination?

It's quite the opposite.

That they showed up during the deadline, rather than being absent and risking it going through with no elimination, is proof that they are town.

I forgot about the 10% chance of scum thing on them, so having them in the PoE scumpool is even more dastardly tbh. Seriously mastina these miscalculations and shading are reinvigorating a scumread on you that I forgot I was developing lol

And what, exactly, am I miscalculating on?

I am aware of the 90% town on Dunnstral--that's why he's off the list of eliminations today in spite of the overwhelming play-based evidence that this is Dunnstral's scumgame. Dunnstral has every play-based reason to be scum. The strong contrast between his towngames and this one, the overlap of his scumgames with his play this game, his utter lack of scumhunting and general lack of reasoning beyond the norm. (Dunnstral may be a low-reasoning player, but not this low-reasoning.) His posts lack substance and lack content. His pushes are empty and run contrary to basic self-evident facts.

I have repeatedly said this and I stand by this assessment. He is literally playing like a Godfather, smug in knowing we won't eliminate him due to what amounts to a false cop clear on him in spite of him not actually being town.

Could he be town? Sure he could, just like SKYEscrapers could be town. I just don't think that there's one iota of a good faith argument that says there's any aspect of his play here which is town if you put aside the result which is not even a definitive innocent.

I've laid out pretty damn strong reasons for my townreads, and why when removing them, you have a list of three players, which is SKYE, Dunn, and DoubtingThomas. (DT is by far the towniest of the bunch by the way which is why I personally feel that DoubtingThomas is town.)

But do you, Ari, think scum!Mastina is afraid of MathBlade enough to pick him for the kill. Because Math and my arguing was pretty anti-town IMO and I was worrying about it over the night. And if Math had been in the game today it would have sapped the life out of the game even worse than the posting drought I think, so to me there's significant reason to leave him alive.

Actually.

I am the most familiar of any player onsite with the possible exception of Titus (his brother) as to how MathBlade is a scum asset in causing TvT fighting that drains the life out of towns during games. (Probably, most infamously, Civilization Mafia.) I am quite aware of how antitown MathBlade can be, so the kill on him took me off-guard as well, as I was sure that the N1 kill was going to be either you or TGP. Rarely a game goes by that MathBlade doesn't drain the life out of a town at some point, so I'd know to

not

kill Mathblade, to let his arguing with you continue. (Btw this is why I thought it'd be TGP killed; I thought that the scum would leave you alive so that Mathblade would argue with you.)

Granted, what Ari says is also accurate:

i thjnk MathBlade was obvtowning and having them in that role would have been bad for any scumteam. I haven't looked at mastina/Math interactions but they are a very good player when they are given the right game and I think this was one whrere they would have shone. Of the playerlist I assume mastina has the most experience with them and thus they would know this.

In spite of Mathblade's tvt arguments being inevitable and also anti-town, draining the life out of games...he's not a bad player; he's still a very good player given the right game and in this game was obvtown. Being obvtown in a micro is bad for scum, so just about any scumteam would, in hindsight, have reason to eliminate Mathblade. (It was just that specifically my experience with Math blinded me to that aspect.)

[mastina]

Don't understand Mastina's hard townread of TGP at all, how do you feel about that by the way?

Let me put it this way, Akarin.
Look at your play this game.
Look at TGP's play this game.
Iso yourself, then compare things you've done and said, stances you've taken and

why

you took them. The readslists you've given, the reasons, etc.
Then iso TGP.
And then filter through the lens of TGP innately posting less than you.

Do you see the similarity between you two after that?

And looking at your own play, would you say it is town?
Why would you say your play is town? Would it involve the reasons presented even if wrong, the efforts to work with others, the reevaluations, the genuine attempt to gamesolve?

Because those are things I see in both you and TGP.

[mastina]

Could both SKYE / Mastina try to towncase themselves?

I can, the question is more do I need to? I'm not an elimination candidate today.

Btw Akarin: if you need more proof of TGP being town, you need only look to 1005+1006.

VOTE: DoubtingThomas
Thoughts?

I will vote there as a compromise, if needed, but I wouldn't be happy about it. While DoubtingThomas is in the poe pool of three names (where one of said names is off the tables for today), DT is by far the towniest of the three. I'll do it, but conditional on you listening to me tomorrow in the guarantee that if DoubtingThomas flips town as I think, that the scumteam is exactly SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral.

but akarin looks even more town for 1009/1010

Agreed.

also why is dunnstral acting like he's lock clear, lol

(Because he's scum acting smug in knowing he's effectively a Godfather here and with that smugness is flaunting his unlynchable-today status in the faces of the people who know he's scum but can't eliminate him due to a mechanical false-clear people are too afraid of.)

[mastina]

mastina (2):

Dunnstral, SKYEscrapers

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

not voting (3):

Akarin, DoubtingThomas, Gypyx

day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

+

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

+

ok, i'm going to put my vote here now. VOTE: thomas

=

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

DoubtingThomas (2):

Akain, SKYEscrapers

mastina (1):

Dunnstral

not voting (2):

DoubtingThomas, Gypyx

day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

I am assuming that, come deadline, DoubtingThomas will vote for SKYEscrapers out of a desire for self-preservation if nothing else. Which would put the wagons, right now, with one day until deadline, at 3-2 SKYE-DT.

With one day until deadline, SKYEscrapers and DoubtingThomas should both roleclaim here.

[mastina]

Town Alien.
It's a Roleblocker variant that I crumbed in such an obvious way Mathblade got mad at me for it XD
- Ari

he forgot to say that it's 1-shot

The Empress

Gamma Emerald was executed! he was a

1-shot alien from King Doris Donatello's Army.

For those who are wondering, the Doris Donatello Army was the scum faction of that game. That game had a scum one-shot alien...the exact role SKYEscrapers is claiming now.

That, plus my own role is a soft-cc to this claim. (Not a hard-cc; it is theoretically possible for my role and their role to both be town, it's just incredibly unlikely and far, far, far more likely from a setup perspective for their role to be a scum role meant to roleblock roles like mine with the drawback of being unable to kill the player roleblocked.)

[mastina]

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

DoubtingThomas (2):

Akarin, SKYEscrapers

mastina (1):

Dunnstral

not voting (2):

DoubtingThomas, Gypyx

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to Finally Forbid someone. day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

mod notes

• less than a day left !

[/area]

As of the time of this post:
0 days, 4 hours, 42 minutes from now is the deadline.

And since this votecount...

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

VOTE: akarin
i am vt btw so you can hammer me if y'all are gonna do what y'all do (miselim)

These are the only two votes.

Which leaves this as what I have:

Current Votecount

DoubtingThomas (3):

Akarin, SKYEscrapers, Dunnstral

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

Akarin (1):

DoubtingThomas

not voting (1):

Gypyx

In hindsight, I should've asked the mod if we could get a deadline extension on account of a holiday, earlier, so that I would have time for him to have answered.

Unfortunately, I didn't even realize there was a holiday until like...today or yesterday or so, so the thought of asking slipped my mind. (Whooooops.)

At this point, though, because I am going to bed now and won't be up until tomorrow afternoon, like six hours after the day's deadline.

I have to do this.

VOTE: DoubtingThomas.

I really really was hoping someone would come on and change their vote. Gypyx, Akarin, one of the two could've swung it onto SKYEscrapers here.
Unfortunately.
I can't rely on them hammering after I go to bed (I don't know when they'll be awake) and I can't rely on schadd_ giving an extension when there's no guarantee he would.

So I well and truly am sorry, DT.
We just...don't have the time and having an elimination > not having an elimination.

[mastina]

Before I go to bed tho and before the thread is locked.

ok, so a 1-shot alien has been scum before. and? why can't it be town?

It can, it's just that between it having been a scum role in a game schadd_ conceived literally simultaneously to this one and your role being a soft-cc to my own with your role looking like it was built to stop my role, your role being scum looks more likely.

VOTE: DoubtingThomas

I just want to say that I really fucking hate this vote, it's absolutely disgusting from Dunnstral and I really really REALLY fucking HATE that I am hammering the wagon that this scumfuck put forward as the only viable lynch today.

so dunnstral is either wolf siding really bad while not trying
or just wolf

He's just scum.

y'all are so bad y'all would never be able to solve me if i were a wolf lmao.

I am more and more sure you are town, DT. I really really hate being the hammer vote, it's just. We needed another vote on SKYEscrapers, we needed more time, we needed

something

, and we didn't get it. I'll try to make it up to you tomorrow if I live through the night. <3

at least one of dunn-akarin is a wolf. if one or both of you are town, seriously reconsider your play this game. horrendous

Akarin is hard-town here; Dunn is hard-scum.

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

Well everyone aside from TGP has either roleclaimed (Dunn, DT, SKYE) or softclaimed (you, me, Akarin), so tomorrow we should be massclaiming anyway. (And if, as I suspect, it's lylo, treat any hard-guilties/innocents with the appropriate grains of salt deserved for xylo situations, and be cautious with the voting.)

also i thought about something, maybe like, the roles we have got assigned

before

the alignements? that would make sense with nic's information

Possible, but I doubt it. Doesn't really fit the theme of MBOS games as I know them.

And with that, going to bed.

To reiterate:
If I am not alive tomorrow.
You power-fucking-lynch SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral; you do NOT eliminate Gypyx, Akarin, or TheGoldenParadox out of paranoia.

SKYE and Dunnstral are your scumteam.

[mastina]

Okay I lied, not bed quite yet.
I feel the need to reiterate the SKYE-Dunnstral interactions.
To wit.
SKYE lists Dunn as null here.
Dunnstral-SKYE interactions here reek of scum-scum.
Dunnstral has SKYE as town.
SKYE was unusually interested in Dunnstral here.
While SKYE states a preference for Dunnstral and briefly votes him, their very next post is unvoting him, and pushing a counterwagon to him.
They've had mutual townreads on each other the whole game, and neither one has really explained why.

Between the two of them they've done everything possible to derail wagons on each other, supporting counterwagons (this doesn't show up in iso very well, I need to actually point to areas of the game with wagon sizes to demonstrate this but I'm too tired and lack time right now), and basically just.

Are very, very, stupidly obviously.

Just the scumteam that makes the most sense.

I wish I could write a better case than this, this is incredibly rushed and lackluster and I realize it's poorly timed but it's better now than never if I die because if I'm nightkilled I won't have the ability to present a more eloquent sufifcently advianced version tomorrow. I would rather post an incomplete half-done case that needs to be fleshed out than die having not presented it at all but I just. Really feel they fit as the scumteam better than any other combo possible,

Butyeah am very very rapidly losing my coherence here cognitive is in the decline and while I want to do better than this, it's the only thing I can do right now, need to just do better tomorrow if I kive so see you then if the scum don't nightkill me.

[mastina]

(Soyeah bed now.
Sorry, will try to do more if I live, realize I haven't done enough in hindsight, realyze in twilight that it's not the time to have efforted and made cases, that it should've been done earlier whe nwe had the time when it'd matter but I just...didn't actually think about it until now, didn't have the passion/fire within, I'm usually quite passive and struggle to be proactive, been passive whole game reacting to people and bouncing off of them but I realize that if I wanted to push EDunn-Skye harder that being reactive/passive wasn't enough and that I needed to be proactive but I didn't think about that until tonow so that's too little too late but I promise I will try to be more proactive tomorrow if scum don't kill me because I need to be in order for us to win this game because I'm pretty sure DT's flipping town now, DT didn;t do the survival thing and was actively antagonizing their own allies (DT fingered me when I am one of DT's only defenders, not something scum heading to the gallows would probably do), will try to make it up to y'all then.

[mastina]

Mastina, did you block me night 1?

My role is not a roleblocking role.
It's a combined protective and investigative role: a combined doctor-tracker. (As in, I target a player; I both protect them and track them.)
Before I out the results tho, I'm waiting for SKYE to claim their target and what night.

[mastina]

I've been thinking that our role might be based on "There should have been more than one season of Firefly." though that doesn't really fit because there's no aliens in firefly. i haven't been able to figure it out otherwise.

The Empress

Funny, because I guessed that I was that sentence based off of the crew of Firefly containing a doctor and experienced trackers.

[mastina]

I don't believe that claim

Yes well, you're scum, so.

I don't need you to believe it, I only need the other two town to believe it.

And given that I never lie about my claims, you not believing it is evidence you're scum because if you were town you'd know that I don't fucking lie about my claim.

I am a combined doctor-tracker.
This was why I was soft-cc'ing SKYE; SKYE's claimed role of 1x alien is a protective role. One which could coexist with my role, but seems is more likely meant to prevent my role from being used one night.

I've left breadcrumbs since D1 of this, too, to back it up, and have pretty damn compelling evidence to back it up.

[mastina]

I'll claim my role after Skye claims too

You already did; you claimed neighbor was your only role.
Going to try and change that claim in lylo?

[mastina]

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

I read this as being a roleclaim of neighbor with Nic, whose only role was being who Nic was informed about.

[mastina]

mastina is who.

And the when? What night did you target me?

[mastina]

mastina is who.

And the when? What night did you target me?

i already claimed that

Where?
You declined to say if you used your power N1 during D2. And today, you definitely haven't said you used it last night.

You claimed you used your night action on me, but not what night.

I targeted two different players each night and did indeed get a different result on one of the two nights--and I am asking you for which night because I already know my results and have breadcrumbed them.

[mastina]

last night

Okay, this does check out.

N1, I targeted TGP, for the protection. (Unfortunately, the two halves of my role want polar opposites in targets. If I am targeting the player who I want to protect, I'm not going to get as much mileage out of the track; if I target a player who I want to track, I'm not going to protect them from a nightkill. I valued the protection over the track.)

N1, TGP did not target anyone.

N2, I targeted Akarin, and I received no result.

'Crumbs next post.

[mastina]

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

For the record.
I don't care if it's 7-2 or 4-5.
I don't believe in a MBOS game a claim of just "neighbor" with nothing extra in it.
No power role, no neighborhood abilities, just neighbor?

The lack of power role claim makes me pretty sure that Dunnstral is not town, and given the lack of openly claiming 3p, presumably, scum (which is to say, nontown that cannot win with town, whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's).

^Not a 'crumb, by the way, but Dunnstral I did mention on D1 that I didn't believe your claim of being just a neighbor--if you are, indeed, not just a neighbor as you're now claiming...why didn't you correct me?


But back to the 'crumbs:

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

For the record on my part.
I can't figure it out because there's too many candidates.

• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

Because I could see it as being any of these. (Tho given the nature of my role, if I had to guess, it might be Firefly?)

I could see my role being the cats eyes, because my role has two different functions. Slightly less likely than other combos.
I could see my role being based on 'coming across' (tracking) music and liking it (doctor). Probably not, in hindsight.
I could see traffic light and ignoring it relating to tracking and doctoring (but maybe less likely, in hindsight).
I could see it based on dandelions as being investigating the scientific process as exciting and the reproduction being birth (tho in hindsight, less likely).
I could see Firefly as being me due to the crew having a doctor and seasoned trackers onboard (and I feel this remains one of the most likely).
I could see drinking water as being doctorly advice with every chance being for the tracker half (although this is less likely).
I also could see it as piano by memory and reading sheet music being satisfying in different ways, to reflect how doctoring someone successfully and tracking someone successfully are satisfying in different ways, but are fundamentally near-opposites in that doing one comes at the expense of the other, so maybe this one is the most likely in hindsight.

Because

I have

very

strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill

.

Why would I have very strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill?

Because of being a protective whose purpose is to stop nightkills, and also having a tracking power meant to catch nightkills.

I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

Reiterated here, but also, during the whole time of the 4 town 5nontown I always insisted there would be two scum.

TheGoldenParadox has had well-thought-out stances the entire game long and has been scumhunting from the getgo.

They definitely didn't perform the nightkill last night

, and they've been showing well-reasoned, solid stances from the getgo and with good logic backing them.

I literally put my tracker result in my wall here. I'm surprised nobody caught it, but the reason I knew TGP didn't perform the nightkill N1 is because I doctor-tracked them.

Actually.

I am the most familiar of any player onsite with the possible exception of Titus (his brother) as to how MathBlade is a scum asset in causing TvT fighting that drains the life out of towns during games. (Probably, most infamously, Civilization Mafia.) I am quite aware of how antitown MathBlade can be,

so the kill on him took me off-guard as well, as I was sure that the N1 kill was going to be either you or TGP.

---
Being obvtown in a micro is bad for scum, so just about any scumteam would, in hindsight, have reason to eliminate Mathblade. (It was just that specifically my experience with Math

blinded me to that aspect

.)

In this post I literally explained why I protected TGP N1 and 'crumbed my intention to protect Akarin N2. I was caught off-guard by the Math nightkill since I thought that Math-Akarin was valuable enough an argument to the scumteam that they'd leave both alive to D2...thus why I protected TGP who I thought they'd opt for instead.

With them having actually eliminated Mathblade rather than leaving him alive, I thought they'd eliminate the second half of the Math-Akarin duo, thus my protection on Akarin N2.

That, plus my own role is a soft-cc to this claim. (Not a hard-cc; it is theoretically possible for my role and their role to both be town, it's just incredibly unlikely and far, far, far more likely from a setup perspective for their role to be a scum role meant to roleblock roles like mine with the drawback of being unable to kill the player roleblocked.)

It is theoretically possible for a combined doctor-tracker and a 1x alien to share an alignment and both be town.

It is far more likely that a combined doctor-tracker is a town role and the 1x alien is a scum role meant to prevent one of my protection-tracks from going through.

Before I go to bed tho and before the thread is locked.

ok, so a 1-shot alien has been scum before. and? why can't it be town?

It can, it's just that between it having been a scum role in a game schadd_ conceived literally simultaneously to this one and your role being a soft-cc to my own with your role looking like it was built to stop my role, your role being scum looks more likely.

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

Well everyone aside from TGP has either roleclaimed (Dunn, DT, SKYE) or softclaimed (you, me, Akarin), so tomorrow we should be massclaiming anyway. (And if, as I suspect, it's lylo, treat any hard-guilties/innocents with the appropriate grains of salt deserved for xylo situations, and be cautious with the voting.)

To reiterate:
If I am not alive tomorrow.
You power-fucking-lynch SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral; you do NOT eliminate Gypyx, Akarin, or TheGoldenParadox out of paranoia.

SKYE and Dunnstral are your scumteam.

Reiterating the doubt behind tracker-doctor and 1x alien being on the same team with the likelihood of the 1x alien being scum. Also, another instance where I state my belief that Dunnstral hard-claimed Neighbor, nothing more...and Dunnstral did not correct me. So to reiterate once more, he's bullshitting a claim in lylo.

[mastina]

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me
I'm pretty sure one of Skye/mastina are mafia, based on claims.

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

And if you were roleblocked, who did the roleblocking?

I know I was roleblocked N2, which you claim could not be you.
But SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x--which means either they lied about being 1x and are scum, or told the truth and there's no explanation for you being roleblocked.

I do tend to agree with your sentiment tho. There is at least one scum between you and SKYE.
I just happen to think it's not limited to being precisely one and could very well be two because both your claims are sketchy as fuck, both your plays are sketchy as fuck, both of you have fingered me as scum rather than each other and you fit perfectly as scumbuddies.

[mastina]

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me
I'm pretty sure one of Skye/mastina are mafia, based on claims.

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

And if you were roleblocked, who did the roleblocking?

I know I was roleblocked N2, which you claim could not be you.
But SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x--which means either they lied about being 1x and are scum, or told the truth and there's no explanation for you being roleblocked.

I do tend to agree with your sentiment tho. There is at least one scum between you and SKYE.
I just happen to think it's not limited to being precisely one and could very well be two because both your claims are sketchy as fuck, both your plays are sketchy as fuck, both of you have fingered me as scum rather than each other and you fit perfectly as scumbuddies.

To explain on this.
SKYEscrapers claimed their role on D2.
Dunnstral continued to defend them as town on D2, not mentioning them as being suspect in spite of

them claiming to be his exact role, only oneshot instead of loud+odd

.

Why did Dunnstral not think SKYEscrapers claiming his role was suspect? What made them claiming his role continue to be town?

This is why I see both claims as suspect.

[mastina]

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

I didn't want to elim Skye, so I left that to figure out today

And why didn't you want to eliminate a player that you are now hard-counterclaiming?

I soft-cc'd yesterday with my doubt--you, however, are hard-cc'ing yet yesterday showed no doubt at all towards them.

[mastina]

@mastina, would you agree that dunn's claim is a lot shadier than mine?

Objectively, yes. I mechanically know that my night action failed last night--which lines up with your claim.

Dunnstral's claimed action has no such backing. Either he's lying, or you're lying about being 1x and blocked him N1. He claimed to have targeted DT N1 as a Loud alien, and yet on D2 DT showed absolutely no signs of having been targeted by Dunnstral. I searched DT's D2 iso and there's no hint, no sign, no query to Dunn, nothing. Which is heavily indicative of, EITHER: Dunnstral is lying and did not target DT N1, OR: Dunnstral is telling the truth, but someone blocked him N1. Given that I know the blocker cannot be me and cannot be Akarin (see below for my explanation), that leaves you/Gypyx as the only two who could block him N1.

Ergo, there is a genuine case of a, so to speak, pseudo-2v2, Akarin+Dunnstral vs. You+Gypyx.

Dunnstral also has zero hints of his role being real. He didn't counterclaim you yesterday, and he didn't show suspicion of you yesterday. He continued to insist you were town even after you claimed 1x Alien. So yes, objectively, his claim is far more suspect. I personally have reason to believe your claim is at least partially correct, whereas Dunnstral's claim has zero backing and zero evidence behind it.

Okay well I'm an N2 invéstigatoire
Innocent always means the investigative target is innocent, guilty means they could be guilty or innocent. Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.
I checked Dunn last night and he's

TOWN

So let's cover every possible scumteam combination right now, and then go through them.

Akarin-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given the SKYE-Dunn 1v1 where their claims are hard-ccs of each other, at least one of them must be scum.

Akarin-SKYEscrapers:

While it's theoretically possible that in a SKYE-Dunn 1v1, Akarin chooses to get on Dunn's side and indirectly bus SKYEscrapers, this is so incredibly beyond the realm of improbable that it's literally impossible. Akarin doing this would be gamethrowing, so this team is not possible.

Akarin-Gypyx:

Given the Dunnstral-SKYEscrapers 1v1, this team is not possible.

Akarin-Dunnstral:

This is actually the most plausible scumteam to me ignoring individual reads. I actually thought that on D1, Akarin-Dunnstral was a possible team, but I convinced myself Akarin was town as the reason for why it wasn't possible. However, Akarin's strong defense of Dunnstral for almost the entirety of the game beyond early D1 makes this an incredibly probable team.

SKYEscrapers-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible.

SKYEscrapers-Dunnstral:

Given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.

SKYEscrapers-Gypyx:

Possible team combo, but one which doesn't seem to fit well as SKYEscrapers has been at the throat of Gypyx for most of the game.

Gypyx-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given the SKYE-Dunn 1v1 where their claims are hard-ccs of each other, at least one of them must be scum.

Gypyx-Dunnstral:

Given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.

Dunnstral-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.



So eliminating the teams that cannot be true, you're left with...

SKYEscrapers-mastina:

I, personally, know this team combo to not be possible. If SKYEscrapers is town, then they also know that this combo is not possible. It should however be apparent to others as not being the scumteam combo, because I have been calling for the death of SKYEscrapers the entire game, and them for the death of me the entire game. If we were scum together, we'd have been mutually bussing from pretty much the getgo.

SKYEscrapers-Gypyx:

This scumteam combo is basically process of elimination.
If you accept that SKYEscrapers' and Dunnstral's roles cannot both be town (and that is a very reasonable assumption to make), then one of them must be scum. If Akarin is not scum, then Dunnstral would be town, necessitating that SKYE be scum. And if Akarin isn't scum, given we have two scum, the second scum would be Gypyx.
Play-wise, this seems like an unlikely combo as SKYEscrapers has been pushing Gypyx the whole game, but I will be reviewing it to give it due process.
It requires my townread on Gypyx to be wrong, but does mean my game-long scumread on SKYEscrapers would be right.
Notably: SKYEscrapers has had moments that pinged town to me.

Akarin-Dunnstral:

I legit thought that Akarin was Dunnstral's scumbuddy at one point during the latter half of D1 after Akarin switched from attacking Dunnstral to defending him. Heck, I wrote an entire post saying as much--but I deleted it, going, "nahhhh. Akarin was pressing Dunnstral early and otherwise looks town. Akarin can be wrong town here who was right on Dunnstral initially but switched to wrong on him later".

In hindsight.

I am kinda wishing that I didn't delete the post where I made this callout.

Because in hindsight.

Akarin's switch from attacking Dunnstral earlier when he was at no risk of death, to defending Dunnstral for the rest of the game when he was in danger, including an innocent result claim on Dunnstral in

eliminate wrong and town loses

, is textbook scumbuddy behavior, of scum defending their scumbuddy and using their leverage within the townbloc to prevent the town from eliminating Dunn.

It requires my townread of Akarin to be wrong, but does mean my game-long scumread on Dunnstral would be right.
Notably: I've never once seen so much as one iota of a reason to townread Dunnstral. His play has been scum through and through. I also don't know Akarin's towngame, and Akarin has been suspected by many of the dead town. Akarin being scum would also explain the Mathblade nightkill, maybe the TGP nightkill as well. Also, notably, Akarin claimed only after all info was on the table, meaning a fakeclaim would be easy to make in lylo. Akarin also was a heavy pusher for the DT elimination, when DT suspected Akarin.

So right now, I lean towards, of the two possible scumteams, it being Akarin-Dunnstral, but I want to review the whole game to check it out before voting.

[mastina]

so, if i take you as town, which i had been, it has to be gypyx and mastina? so, the only people i should consider voting today would be akarin or mastina.

Not quite.

Me as scum demands you as scum as well--not something possible to you, or to me.

My role makes zero sense as a scum role, and I'm not sure which head this was but Ari you should remember the LAST time "mastina could be fakeclaiming her role!" came up when I was a fucking protective role. (Hint, Ari: it was a rather infamous Large Theme, where people kept on saying my bodyguard claim

must

be a lie. Surprise surprise! It wasn't, because I don't. fucking. lie. About my role. I am a combined doctor-tracker. That's not a fucking role I would fakeclaim.)

There's no vigs in this game, so a scum doctor makes no sense; my role makes a lot of sense as a town role.

Given that my role is not a scum role.

And given that Dunnstral is literally claiming a stronger version of your role that isn't backed up by evidence (DT showed no indication of knowing Dunnstral visited you; Dunnstral had multiple times where people thought his claim was explicitly 'Town Neighbor, nothing else' and did not say otherwise; Dunnstral's claim requires him to have been roleblocked N1 when no possibility of that exists unless you're scum lying about your role, which you personally know to obviously not be the case).

Dunnstral must be scum, from your perspective.
And given that Akarin is claiming Dunnstral is an innocent.
Akarin would, necessarily, be Dunnstral's scumbuddy.

So to you, the votes should be Akarin or Dunnstral.

i don't think scum!akarin needed to do this

Doesn't she?
If Dunnstral-Akarin is the scumteam.
Last page's events were enough where today's elimination was strongly looking like it'd be Dunnstral--you were leaning that way, Gypyx was leaning that way, I was leaning that way.
And I am a doctor-tracker, who if I wasn't the nightkill, could either foil the kill or catch Akarin making the kill.
If Akarin is forced to nightkill me due to my role.
Do you think that Akarin wins the 3p lylo when Gypyx has been suspicious of Akarin the whole game and I was hard-defending Gypyx?

If Akarin got into a 3p where she needed to kill me, and I made it clear Gypyx was town, and Gypyx held onto his Akarin suspicion...she loses that 3p lylo.
If Akarin leaves me alive, she loses that 3p lylo or 4p mylo.

If Akarin is scum, then yes, she needs to claim an innocent on Dunnstral today because I was heading towards voting Dunn today and still lean towards that, pending a game reread.

[mastina]

akarin and dunn team seems really weird because they could probably have let me and mastina go after each other

Isn't that exactly what they're doing?

Dunnstral has called me scum every gameday and voted me every day phase.
Dunnstral's claim is setting you up as a scum liar, because it's claiming that his action must've been roleblocked when he targeted DT--requiring you to be lying about being a 1x alien that targeted me last night, that you targeted him N1.
Dunnstral's play and claim are both poised towards calling us both scum.

And Akarin?

I'm leaning SKYE + Mastina pretty hard right now.

Is literally calling us the scumteam. It doesn't get more 'go after each other' than that.

At this stage, for you to be town, Akarin must be scum.

I'm not convinced you are town; it's possible the scumteam is you + Gypyx.
But there's a pretty damn compelling narrative for Akarin-Dunnstral to be the scumteam, whereas there's less of one for you to be scum with Gypyx.

And if you are town, the best thing you can do is give me the time to reread the game and better parse it to see which team it is.

[mastina]

I had originally took Mastina to be crumbing Doctor back on D1. I was sure she'd be toast.

Yeah I 'crumbed doctor on D1 because no fucking shit, that's my actual fucking role. Half of it anyway.

TGP seems like such a weird kill though. Like why would Mastina + SKYE team kill TGP and leave me alive, they'd have known I wasn't protected. Pretty sure I was more suspicious of both of them at times than TGP was.

Alive and unblocked, mind you. This

is

a good question--why would a mastina-SKYE team, with an alien action, leave you not only alive, but also unblocked?

If you're town, which I lean against but I am willing to hash it out, talk through the possibilities, look at the game and such. But if you are town. Then the only scenario which explains last night is that SKYE needed to roleblock me (because my role was too much of a threat otherwise) and simply didn't have enough kills to kill you as well.

If you are town, the team MUST be SKYE+Gypyx.

And it should also say something.

SKYE, Akarin, whichever of you is town:

It should be a red fucking flag to you that in both of your eyes, the other has good reason to be scum, yet both of you are entertaining that

I

could be scum when all the evidence points to me being town.

[mastina]

SKYE, Akarin, whichever of you is town:

It should be a red fucking flag to you that in both of your eyes, the other has good reason to be scum, yet both of you are entertaining that

I

could be scum when all the evidence points to me being town.

To explain.
Dunnstral has claimed odd-night loud alien, targeting DT N1. DT showed no evidence of having been targeted by Dunn N1 during D2, which suggests that either Dunnstral was roleblocked N1 or that Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum.

If Dunnstral was roleblocked N1, then this would require someone to be lying about their role. Given the hundreds of games' worth of proof that I do not lie about my role as well as the pretty compelling evidence that I am at least half of what I said with me knowing about things that corroborate my claim. I cannot be the liar.
Therefore, if Dunnstral was roleblocked N1, and Akarin not being the possible roleblocker, the only two possible players that could've roleblocked Dunnstral are Gypyx and SKYEscrapers.

My action got a No Result N2, meaning I was roleblocked by SKYEscrapers N2.

This means that the possibilities are:
-Gypyx is also a roleblocking role, lying about his claim, and blocked Dunn N1
-SKYEscrapers is lying about being 1x and is at least 2x and blocked Dunn N1 and me N2
-Or Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum.

In none of those scenarios am I scum.

(It should also be noted that if I were scum, I would encourage my scumbuddy to claim their actual role, or one close to it. I never encourage fakeclaiming.)

There is a very, very significant chance of there being an all-but guaranteed 1v1 between SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral.
If Dunnstral is telling the truth, then SKYEscrapers is lying about being a 1x alien and is thus scum;
If SKYEscrapers is telling the truth, then Dunnstral is lying about his claim and is thus scum.

The facts heavily point towards this being the case, where one is scum and the other is town.

And both of you, instead of focusing on that 1v1, are focusing on ME being scum, when in the eyes of each other, the other should be scum. (Akarin should know that, due to Dunnstral being town, SKYE is scum, and that SKYE pushing me is a red flag as to my alignment being town; SKYE should know that, due to them being town, Dunnstral is scum and by proxy of Akarin's claim Akarin is also scum, and Akarin pushing me is a red flag as to my alignment being town.)

You both have mechanical reasons to believe that the other is scum and that I am town.

[mastina]

what i mean is, if dunn had never claimed that, i probably would have ended up voting for you.

Did he have any way of knowing that before he claimed?
You claimed to have roleblocked me last night--there was a kill last night. While I could still be scum who didn't make the nightkill, I fundamentally could not be the scum who made the nightkill, because you blocked me and a kill happened.
Nothing on page 45 (the page Dunnstral claimed on) indicated your slot would be voting me, and given the mechanical reasons for me to have greater than usual odds of not being scum...would Dunnstral have any way of knowing you were planning on voting me?

My role and Skye's role aren't counter claims

Oh?

A counterclaim is, simply, a claim in response to another claim. More specifically, it is usually a situation where

two or more players claim the

same role

, or if one player

claims that another's claimed action is impossible

.

This is, per the wiki, the definition of a counterclaim.

Town Alien.

he forgot to say that it's 1-shot

mastina is who.

last night

This is SKYEscrapers' claim: one-shot

Alien

.
They used their role on me, mastina, N2, and thus did not use their action N1.

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me

This is your claim, Dunnstral: loud odd-night

Alien

.

FURTHERMORE, per your claim of targeting DoubtingThomas N1, yet them never saying anything about it to the very end, you are claiming that someone else roleblocked you.

If SKYEscrapers' claim is legitimate, then your claim is impossible, because you could not have been roleblocked if SKYEscrapers is telling the truth.

You are claiming the same role with different modifiers. Exact same role: Alien. Just with different modifiers attached.
AND you are claiming an impossible role result, in that your claim and SKYEscrapers' claim cannot coexist because if you were roleblocked N1, then SKYEscrapers cannot be a 1x alien who targeted me N2.

By what logic is this NOT you counterclaiming their role, considering your claim falls under not one but BOTH categories used to define a counterclaim?

Do explain.

Because you're literally fucking counterclaiming and pretending you're not is absolutely insane.

[mastina]

(I would like to put it on the record that the Dunn-Akarin half fingering me as scum even after there's strong mechanical evidence pointing to how Dunnstral's claim is an outright counterclaim to SKYEscrapers' claim by literally both definitions of counterclaim, whereas SKYEscrapers' half reconsidering their push on me after this mechanical information comes to light, certainly does the Dunn-Akarin half no favors here. Like, if Dunn-Akarin are town, then fingering me is literally gamethrowing here, whereas if Dunn-Akarin are scum, fingering me when SKYEscrapers were already suspicious of me is a good way to win since if SKYEscrapers votes me, they would win.)

[mastina]

Tgp too. Tgp dying is strange

Sure is!
Funny how you're pushing me as scum when the kills don't line up with me being scum.
Pointing out how the TGP kill is strange in a scumastina world, and then not reevaluating what that means, is a big .

Also, why would I need to fake innocent Dunn today.

Because Dunnstral was getting eliminated without a question if you didn't?

SKYE has been townreading me most of the game. In a me-Dunn scum world, why wouldn't I just bus, kill Mastina, and get SKYE to vote Gypyx with me?

Because of the risk that my death would clear Gypyx.

I don't like how Mastina leaves this option out.

To some extent, because there's less point in them.
There's little point in discussing scenarios which didn't happen--why would I kill MathBlade when leaving MathBlade alive would allow a MathBlade-Akarin fight to continue into D2? I wouldn't, but the fact remains that MathBlade did die N1, so talking about scenarios in which he didn't die N1 does little good.

Same goes for here. Why would you claim a result in 5p lylo when you could possibly win in 3p lylo? While you say you wouldn't, the fact remains that you have claimed a result in 5p lylo.

Talking about hypotheticals that didn't happen can have some value, but less than talking about what DID happen, and figuring out the

why

it happened.

You claimed an innocent on Dunnstral.
That means there are only two worlds:
You are town, with an actual innocent;
You are scum, lying about an innocent.

There's no other worlds which exist, so the question is figuring out which of the worlds is more likely. The why behind the actions, the most likely outcome.

I really don't like Mastina's walls there. Just in a sort of visceral way, the amount of words and pushing on how SKYE and I must both know Mastina is innocent, the assumptions going into the hard CC theory without as much waffling as other stuff seems to get.

There is no 'assumption' as to there being a hard-CC. There is literal fucking mechanical proof of it being a hard-CC. They are both claiming Alien. Different modifiers to the role, but the same base role. Alien.

Dunnstral is claiming a Loud modifier to his Alien role and targeted DT N1--but DT showed no signs of being targeted by Dunn D2.
This means that EITHER: Dunnstral is lying, OR: Dunnstral was roleblocked N1.

The only players in the game who could have roleblocked Dunnstral N1 are Gypyx or SKYEscrapers. And SKYEscrapers claimed a role that could do so.
But I know that I was roleblocked N2. And SKYEscrapers claimed 1x Alien targeting me N2. Meaning that the only way SKYEscrapers could have blocked Dunn N1 is if they are lying about being a 1x Alien and are actually something like a 2x Alien.

Ergo.
Either Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum, OR, SKYEscrapers is lying about their role and is scum.

This doesn't take a mechanical genius to figure out. It's self-evident from the claims. Dunnstral is claiming he was roleblocked N1; SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x that targeted me N2; one of those claims must inherently be false.

So no fucking shit there's zero waffling there, there's zero doubt on that, there's zero 'assumptions' in there. There's just facts.
FACT: Dunnstral is claiming Loud Odd-night Alien.
FACT: Dunnstral is claiming he targeted DoubtingThomas N1.
FACT: DoubtingThomas showed zero indication of having been targeted by Dunnstral D2.
FACT: Dunnstral has stated he believes he was roleblocked N1.
FACT: Nobody has claimed to have roleblocked Dunnstral N1.
CONCLUSION1: Because nobody has claimed to have roleblocked Dunnstral N1, either Dunn was roleblocked by scum or Dunnstral is lying.

FACT: SKYEscrapers is claiming oneshot alien.
FACT: SKYEscrapers is claiming they did not use it N1.
FACT: SKEYscrapers is claiming they targeted me N2.
FACT: I have claimed my action failed N2.
FACT: Nobody else has given an action explanation for why my action would fail.
CONCLUSION2: Because there is no other possible explanation, SKYEscrapers blocked me last night.

CONCLUSION3: The only possible worlds are therefore that SKYEscrapers is a 1x Alien who targeted me last night, or is not a one-shot Alien (e.g. is actually 2x or so) and used one shot on me last night while still having more.

Given Conclusion 1 and Conclusion 3, there is only one explanation, a stupidly self-obvious CONCLUSION4: SKYEscrapers' claim of being a 1x alien, and Dunnstral's claim of being a Loud Odd-night Alien that was roleblocked N1, are mutually exclusive.

So what, exactly, in this logical train is wrong?
MathBlade would follow this and agree.
TGP would follow this and agree.

Literally any player with one iota of logicalness to their playstyle and literally any player claiming to be mechanically-oriented (there's a significant overlap between the two) would follow this and agree with me, because this is stupidly obvious logic. A third-grader would be able to see the logical train.

There is no waffling behind there being a definitive hard-cc in Dunn-SKYE because

there can be no world in which both are town

.
There

is

waffling behind

which

is town.

But again.
You-Dunn pushing me as scum in spite of the actual facts and evidence suggesting otherwise, definitely does give credence to you being the scumteam.

[mastina]

Those walls seem more self-serving bad reasoning than game solving.

Then point to the fucking bad reasoning because they are plenty fucking logical with a sound process of deduction backing them.

You're actually projecting.

You're saying that I have bad reasoning, when your logic for me being scum relies entirely on it, and on ignoring ACTUAL logic and reasoning.

[mastina]

dunn, why didn't you seem to care at all the thomas wasn't saying anything?

A good question!
Also a good question: Why did Dunn not care to correct the multiple assertations by multiple people who assumed that his claim was Town Neighbor, with no extra PR behind it?

Also also a good question: Why did Dunnstral think that, after you claimed 1x alien and his role was allegedly roleblocked, that you were not the player who roleblocked him?

Also also also a good question: Why does Dunnstral still insist that your role is not a counterclaim to his role, in spite of all of the facts suggesting his claim and yours cannot both be town?

Suffice to say: Dunnstral's play does not reflect his role at all.

[mastina]

Also, setup spec-wise, MathBlade and TGP would also be on my side:
What point does a combined Doctor-Tracker serve to a scumteam? Absolutely none. There's no vig in this game, so the doctor half would see no use, and as far as roles to track go, the only claimed roles are Gypyx (which would just allow for Gypyx and I to mutually confirm each others' roleclaims but do nothing to confirm our alignments), a 1x alien, a loud odd-night alien, and a N2 cop. Tracking any of those does the scum no good. So the tracker does not help the scumteam and the doctor does not help the scumteam. From a setup spec point of view, combined doctor-tracker is a worthless, useless role.

What point does a combined Doctor-Tracker serve to the town? A whole bucketload. The doctor can stop nightkills, and by also tracking them, serve to help verify claims they make. If failing to stop the nightkill, the tracker half can serve to potentially catch the player who made it. A strong protective/investigative whose usage of one comes heavily at the cost of the other, but which can still see use regardless.


What point does one Alien (with modifiers) serve to the scumteam? A whole bunch. It can roleblock me, preventing my role from seeing use at least one night. It can also indirectly fuck with investigations, too. It doubles the chance of an investigation failing, by targeting an investigative role or by targeting the target of the investigative role.


My role makes no sense as a scum role but fits perfectly as a town role; an Alien being a scum role fits into the game perfectly.

[mastina]

(Beyond that. There's also the fact that this is the polar fucking opposite of my scumgame. I've had two years' worth of scumgames that I put zero effort into, that I was coasting by, doing nothing in the whole game. I also have two years' worth of towngames that I was just as active and gamesolvey as this one--I shouldn't fucking NEED to towncase myself here because I should, mechanically, be fucking town here, but I CAN towncase myself off of play and meta, too.)

[mastina]

(To give quick access to the micros I've played recently.
This one I died N1 and the day was ridiculously short, but you can see the solving.
This one I lived, and you can see the solving. I can also particularly point to mechanical gamesolvey posts like this one to show how I do solve off of game mechanics.

This was a scumgame. No solving.
Notice the contrast?)

[mastina]

VOTE: Akarin

[mastina]

VOTE: Akarin

(For the record, we were convinced the game was lost when schadd_ basically publicly confirmed Dunnstral's claim was not a lie and I very much disagree with the handling of that and do genuinely feel like the Dunnstral slot was compromised from the mod announcement and by virtue of him being town, Akarin was also by proxy confirmed as town. So I was convinced scum couldn't win this because of that.)

[mastina]

Also if it makes you feel better, Ari: Akarin and Dunnstral had no real grounds for me being scum and they were in the wrong when going after me by and large and, yes. I was indeed playing to my town meta.

I legit don't think I've had a scumgame this good which was why I was so fucking pissed when it looked like all that effort was for nothing because of the mod basically confirming a slot.

[mastina]

I'd been suspecting you off and on all game Mastina, and those walls just oozed scum to me, I can't figure why Ari bought into them.

Because if you cased me on being scum off of those walls in 9/10 games, you'd be wrong and I'd be town in those games, and Ari has played with me enough to know that.

This game was just the 1/10 times where I happened to be scum.

My walls were based on actual solid logic, pretending they weren't didn't do you favors. Saying they were 'exhausting' didn't address how they were based off of actual reasoning and well thought out.

[mastina]

(For example: 1179 through 1185? I posted almost those exact posts in Ali vs Pine, where I was town and a bodyguard. The town of that game that mislynched me used YOUR logic, Akarin. They said that I was arguing to exhaust them and self-serving. They were wrong, I was town. The posting of that sort is NOT typical of my scumgame; posting like that is the hallmark of my towngame. I just somehow managed to make it this game as scum. Which'll suck for like the 20 towngames following this where people will point to this game as evidence of it being "hallmark of scumastina", when no, this game is the exception to the general rule. )

[mastina]

Mastina, I seriously don't think you were anywhere near as towny as you think you were.

Oh but I was.
Like I said.
If you think this game is my typical scumgame: enjoy mislynching me in literally every towngame I ever have ever in my life because this game is not typical of my scumgame; this game is very much the exception to the general scumastina rule. This game was very much me in my town meta, by and large. There were small things not matching my towngame, but MOSTLY, this was my towngame.

They really aren't that logical

And what wasn't logical about them?

Because they were in fact based on clear logic and mechanical deductions.

There was some, not-alignment-indicative, self-serving aspects of them, painting myself as town because I 'knew' I was town and was under attack so needed to prove that I was 'town', but nothing I argued was, logically, actually wrong, and nothing was an actual misrep.

I didn't misrep the setup and I didn't misrep you or Dunn or my own claim.

Besides, you'd just make a lot of noise and get SKYE/Gypyx (whichever was town) to skim over the argument.

Nothing I said was noise. It was all fact and logical arguments. Presenting it as noise is YOU misrepping ME.

Like I said.

If you pushed me for these in 9/10 games.

Actually more like in 97/100 games.

You'd be pushing me as town.
And Ari recognized that because he's made the mistake before.
It's just that this was the 3/100 where it happened to be me as scum SOMEHOW pulling out a godly-good mimic of my towngame. This is not typical scumastina.

[mastina]

I felt like I played such a good town game here and the way this ended just makes me feel like complete shit. I'm gonna step away for a minute, but Mastina, curb your arrogance please.

Respectfully: Back at you.

I have the right to feel I played a good scumgame here because most of my scumgames are

not

this good and the way Dunnstral was basically mod-confirmed made me feel like complete shit. Because the mod invalidated half of my argument and publicly confirmed that Dunnstral was Loud, publicly confirmed that Dunnstral targeted DT N1, and by proxy, confirmed that Dunnstral was not blocked N1, all things town would not have known otherwise.

[mastina]

Mastina, I just saw you doing that in that other scum MBoS game too.

No?

In the first MBOS scumgame, the only game in the series other than this one where I've been scum, I never made posts like I made in this game.

There's a night and day difference between MBOS1 and this game in terms of the type of content I was posting.

MBOS1 was dull, lifeless, passionless. I had no fire to me because I was scum and everything I was doing was faked. I was muted, I was largely in the background doing nothing and letting the town be left to its own devices.

This game I had passion, I had fire, and while some was faked, I managed to also largely convince myself I was town arguing a town stance. I was in the foreground, actively trying to 'solve', and was not leaving the town to its own devices. I was genuinely reaching out to players and trying to work with them and trying to coordinate them and get them to see the townness in others.

This is not typical scumastina reasoning, logic, or anything.

[mastina]

Mastina, as a reviewer/random commenter on games I think you are a very fun person to talk to, but your arrogance as a player is infuriating

Again, Akarin: back at you.
YOU are being arrogant here.

Ari did think. He has experience with my towngame and experience with my scumgame and recognized that this game was closer to the former than to the latter--because it WAS.

YOU thinking it wasn't, insisting that this is clearly my scumgame, that this is something I clearly OBVIOUSLY always do as scum, when I

don't

, is simply wrong.

You're blaming Ari for voting you rather than me off of 'not thinking', when he did think. He thought of how he had previously advocated for my death when I was town making the same sorts of arguments I was making this game. And that towngame where I made those arguments was not me playing to my scum meta as town; that towngame was a typical towngame of mine. So me displaying those same things this game (something I've never managed to do as scum before), is something that he thought was town. Because usually it is. (And in, presumably, any game going forward, will probably continue to be.)

I'm not saying you didn't play a good game Mastina, I'm saying you are not some perfect player who can never be read and I don't agree that all your arguments make sense

And the assessment that I am not some perfect player who can never be read is one I agree with!

I am, usually, quite easy to read! I am usually quite obvious when I am scum, and when I am obviously scum I will readily admit it. When I am obviously scum I will fully confess to the fact that, yes, I was indeed obviously scum.

But if you think that I was obviously scum this game: no, I wasn't.

I am, usually, quite easy to read; this game specifically, however, it was not hard to incorrectly read me as town because the fire and passion I had this game is the hallmark of my towngame. (I loathe being scum and it quite often shows.)

I've not bragged about my scumgame in over two years, for good reason. I've felt I had no right to, due to being lackluster in those scumgames.

But this IS a scumgame that I feel, yes, I have the right to be proud of, because I do feel, yes, that this was a scumgame where I basically destroyed two years' worth of towntells that were explicitly behaviors I display only as town.

I am not being arrogant here when saying your reasons were wrong--I respect that your read was right, but it was explicitly right for the wrong reasons.

[mastina]

(It should also say something that, for instance, TGP said that my play looked the same this game as it did in the MBOS large where I was playing basically as town. It's actually remarkably apt a comparison. In that game I was playing basically as town but was technically not so wasn't 100% exactly playing as I do when town. So it being similar to this game means that in this game I was playing basically as I do when town, but wasn't 100% exactly playing as I do when town because I wasn't. I wasn't town here, but I was playing very close to how I would if I were.)

[mastina]

And I think it's absurd to insist that you were so good there was no reason I should have been able to

make my argument

for being town or for you being scum.

I never said that?

Sure, yes, you had the right to make your argument for being town and for me being scum.

But just as you have that right, I have the right to point out how those arguments, while correct in alignment (because you were town and I was scum), are flawed in reasoning--if you scumcased me by pointing out a list of things that are prototypical town-mastina tells, for instance, then that is an argument that I can, justifiably, discredit as being one not backed by facts.

[mastina]

Like you are not so good that the game was such a forgone conclusion that there was no point in me trying, and that's what it seems like you're saying

I said the game was a foregone conclusion and there was no point in trying, but uhhh...I said it in the opposite context?

I said it was a foregone conclusion that this game was going to be a town win and that there was no point in scum trying once schadd_ confirmed Dunnstral's claim as mod-confirmed to be true beyond any shadow of a doubt. The moment he did that, I felt scum couldn't win because we couldn't argue he lied about his role (it was mod-confirmed), we couldn't argue he lied about his N1 action (it was mod-confirmed), and we couldn't argue that his action failed (it was mod-confirmed).

[mastina]

Subject: 976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

hi all. following night 1, i should have informed doubtingthomas that they were visited by dunnstral. that PM was not sent. i think it is most appropriate that this become public information. sorry for issues this has caused

I would like to say that I feel like this is very very poorly handled a resolution and you may as well call the game right here and now due to making it--
By publicly, PUBLICLY, confirming that Dunnstral's claimed role is real, by publicly confirming that Dunnstral's role is real, you're basically publicly confirming he is town.

By publicly confirming that he is town, it becomes impossible to eliminate him, in a lylo situation where there's only three town players to eliminate.
By publicly confirming that he is town, it also by proxy gives credence to Akarin, too.

By making this public, there's no real point in the game continuing--Dunnstral is basically mod-confirmed town. His slot is mod-compromised by the public reveal that his claim is true.
Because he is mod-confirmed to be telling the truth, scum literally cannot win here.

Yeah, i don't see a world where we win now, i agree

(Posts from the scum PT that'll presumably be released when schadd_ gets around to it.)

[mastina]

I never got to, and you apparently played such a perfect game that there was no point.

I didn't play a perfect scumgame--there was at least one notable aspect of my towngame lacking from this one. (Notably: I never made proper readslists. Nobody noticed that, but that's an actual legit town/scumtell of mine. Proper readslists as town; a lack thereof as scum.) Lacking at least one fundamental aspect of my towngame innately means that this game had flaws that I knew about. (Plus, due to my insistence on not bussing, Gypyx-mastina was a scumteam that there was strong associatives for. If one of us went down, it was assured the other would as well, and that is also a potentially exploitable mistake of sorts.)

Beyond that...We managed to kill literally the only VTs in the game all three nights in spite of knowing there was a Novice Cop in the game. (TGP was killed because we, mistakenly, thought THEY were the cop, rather than you.)

Those were misplays and mistakes.

I did however play a good scumgame--the majority of the arguments you were presenting as evidence of me being scum are, in fact, things that my towngame is infamous for. That I displayed these typical traits of my towngame when scum is something I feel I rightly can be proud of.

you'd already dismissed anything I had to say as not based on facts.

I mean.
I feel like what I said this game was based on the facts publicly available.
I feel like your arguments did indeed lack them, presenting incorrect information and dismissing the valid facts.

That said: it is fair that you should've been provided the chance to present your case properly, and maybe to give actually-valid facts (tho I can tell you that it certainly seemed like you weren't giving valid facts).

But blaming Ari for not thinking, when he did clearly think, is wrong.

You can place fault in him for voting so soon when there was so much time left in the day, where if given time to present arguments he may have been swayed otherwise, but saying he didn't think about his vote is unfair to him because to him, I imagine, he thought that he was confident enough to make a choice. That's not a thoughtless action. Maybe a careless action, but one which was perfectly reasonable to have had--I've made early votes in lylo as town on town that cost my team the game, carelessly, but not thoughtlessly.

[mastina]

And it feels terribly unfair to say that there was no point in considering what I had to say.

Well since I wasn't actually saying that (since I agree that you had the right to be heard), there, we have common ground now.

[mastina]

I hereby give you official right to mislynch me in every game we have together for the next...oh, hmm, let's say five years.

Any game where I forget that I have given you this privilege, just quote this post and I'll sheepishly go, "oh...right " and eat the death that I deserve.

Sorry, Ari. <3

[mastina]

I

hate

being treated like I couldn't have possibly had any valid reason for scumreading you just because I hadn't been able to put it into compelling words yet.

Fair, but from the sound of things it looked like the areas you were going to attack were not the actual areas to attack.

There were genuine reasons to scumread me, but the logic I presented were not among them since that is, inherently, the same logical thought process I display when I am town. If you attacked the logic I was using, then I can tell you it wouldn't have worked, but if you did have an actual good angle of attack (because you didn't get the chance to present it, no way to know if you had it or not, but I do fully admit there were legit angles of attack), it might have.

[mastina]

So if the logic was perfect, that means that logically Dunn and I were obvscum here and you were town.

Well before schadd_ confirmed Dunnstral's claim as town...kinda sorta, yes.

After schadd_ confirmed Dunnstral's claim tho, admittedly yes, the logic was proven flawed.

[mastina]

So if the logic was perfect, that means that logically Dunn and I were obvscum here and you were town.

Well before schadd_ confirmed Dunnstral's claim as town...kinda sorta, yes.

After schadd_ confirmed Dunnstral's claim tho, admittedly yes, the logic was proven flawed.

(Basically. A lot of my arguments were based on something schadd_ later, very publicly, confirmed to not be the case. Attacking the logic I presented as being from scum wouldn't have worked because as town I would've made those same arguments with no way of knowing they were wrong until the mod announced it, so if that were your angle of attack, it wouldn't have worked. Pointing out that, given Dunn's roleclaim was now modconfirmed, that my arguments were no longer valid after the fact even if they were valid at the time, and that with them no longer valid that there was less reason for Dunnstral to be scum, very well could have worked. Saying my arguments were made in bad faith wouldn't work, saying my arguments were clearly wrong from the getgo wouldn't work, saying that my arguments were now invalidated by the mod might have. The logic I used was reasonable and accurate to the facts of the game at the given time, but shown incorrect by schadd_'s announcement. Attacking me for having made stances that were at the time reasonable wouldn't have done good, but pointing out the stances were now proven wrong could have. So schadd_ confirming Dunnstral's claim gave you a very good angle you'd otherwise not have.)

[mastina]

Well played but imho you have a tell.

Oh absolutely. Like I said, I didn't make a readslist once this game, and that is a very solid scumtell of mine.

There's also the flowchart test. I will always display some town traits of mine as scum and I will always display some scum traits of mine as town, but there's a degree to them. This particular scumgame had a much larger than usual number of town traits in it, and the scum traits of mine that showed were traits that I can and do show as town, but showing all the scum traits I did was a scum sign.

I can say that I genuinely feel like I did radiate the aura of my town self in spite of being scum; I can say that the arguments I presented and the attitude I displayed were both things I would do as town. But I'm well aware that it wasn't an absolutely picture-perfect recreation, that in spite of the town aura I was emitting there were signs of scum showing through the aura.

[mastina]

You’re more positive as Town. You build people up. As scum there’s a hint of any idea destroy it but you didn’t force your own or try to rebuild flow once it was dead. You sorta went with it.

Eh, I've had plenty of towngames where I wasn't positive. (And in those towngames I very much did not build people up. It was all tearing down.)

Generally speaking, though, I try to be positive as both alignments (I would say that if anything my scumgame is overall more pleasant generically speaking as I insult town players less often in a scumgame), but yes, I have incentive to try and build people up as town.

I feel that latter part is also somewhat accurate, too--as scum, I usually do destroy ideas without the rebuilding, but in this game specifically I'd say that trait, while not utterly absent, was muted as, in your own words, just 'a hint'. I can say that I was legit trying to rebuild you, I was genuinely reaching out to you but it being 'went with it' rather than actual buildup is fair enough.

Because, after all.

You still were pushing for an elimination on town.

I had incentive to, after the efforts made, letting you push through, whereas if I were town I'd probably have been closer to Akarin in insisting that Nic was town, regardless of Dunn. (I feel like if I were genuinely town here, I'd probably gotten stubborn, double-downed on hard-defending Nic here, and fought there to the bitter end in trying to avert his elimination. Softening up and letting him die is something I could do as town, because I do hesitate, I do back down, I do get paranoid and think "maybe the people pushing this are right", but in this specific game I feel like even if that's something which I could've done as town, I wouldn't have done here.)

Basically, I stopped one spot short of how far I'd probably go as town. Going into a zone where I plausibly could do it as town, but probably would've done more, to not go with it but push harder and further. (Laziness is something I am guilty of often as both alignments, but I am very very very much far more lazy as scum because as scum laziness is furthering my wincon.)

[mastina]

The last paragraph is sell hard like you know I am town.

Uh.
MathBlade.

I made that post before I knew you were in the game.

That post was made in response to a time before you had replaced into the game.
There was zero selling of you being town there because as far as that post was concerned...you weren't in the game yet.

[mastina]

Fuck me I had another good town game. I might be better at this. Setup spec was bad though.

Just wait until you see the scum PT.

(schadd_ probably will release it in 24 hours or so. I've no need for any redactions and he has my permission to release it, but he tends to give it 24 hours even after all members say they're okay with its release.)

[mastina]

The last paragraph is sell hard like you know I am town.

Uh.
MathBlade.

I made that post before I knew you were in the game.

That post was made in response to a time before you had replaced into the game.
There was zero selling of you being town there because as far as that post was concerned...you weren't in the game yet.

(I should note tho that I was selling someone as being town there--it was actually made towards

TheGoldenParadox

, who was also in MBOS10 and thus was who I was actually appealing to there.)

[mastina]

Oh I thought you knew I was in the game XD.

Nope, you being in the game was just a happy coincidence since it'd help verify my claims as being accurate.
But I made them not knowing you'd be able to do so.

[mastina]

also, will dead PT get released?

^This is something I'm interested in seeing, too.

[mastina]

i'm like, three levels of confused on why i was killed. i would have defended the scumteam with my last dying breath :/

We made the wrong judgment call on a 50/50 shot to kill the cop.

We knew the cop was either you or Akarin and we thought that you were more likely--I thought that when I mentioned investigatoir, you thought it was suspicious that I mentioned it thus your decrease in townread on me out of you thinking I was breadcrumbing your role; Akarin didn't seem to be breadcrumbing investigatoir; we knew you hadn't acted N1 and thus the possibilities were VT, 1x, or novice when we knew the investigatoir was novice; between these, we thought you were Akarin's role because we guessed wrong in the 50/50. Whooooops.

[mastina]

Subject: micro 976: ded thred

viewtopic.php?p=12317593#p12317593
This is blatant Mastina wants a PR gone. She’s being really heavy handed I just wonder why.

Oh I didn't know SKYEscrapers was a 1x alien at that point. I did however want as many roleclaims as was humanly possible to narrow down the Investigatoir pool so that scum could kill them before they investigated.

The push on SKYE tho wasn't primarily for outing a PR; the push on SKYE was legitimately because I felt they were the best elimination to aim for, to push to look town.

[mastina]

Subject: micro 976: ded thred

Ugh Mastina probably shot me so hard. I just don’t get why when she could discredit me

Because while I figured I could convince you I am town pretty easily, you had enough merits to have earned it. Universal townread, active poster who while causing chaos also cut through it, and did manage to catch the scumteam D1 even if you managed to talk yourself out of it. Just, you were on point this game and that made you a threat.

[mastina]

Subject: micro 976: ded thred

Skye has to do something here if they are town. This game needs content. Mastina is usually good at asking questions but she’s not.

For the record, I am a pretty reactive player--I wasn't lying when I said that I'd love to take charge and be proactive and ask questions, but it's something that's difficult for me to do. I legit struggle when being reactive. If there's content for me to react off of, I am indeed VERY good at asking questions, but if that content is absent, I am utter shit at asking questions regardless of alignment. But, yes, probably worse at it as scum.

[mastina]

Subject: micro 976: ded thred

How do people not suspect Mastina when she asks for dual role claims from the people at L-2 when she was at L-2 for most of the day. Like how?

I mean, as I said before: I wanted to narrow down who the investigatoir was.

That said, I did have good reason and would've done the same as town--we were near deadline and they were the leading two wagons. When I was at L-2 we were not near deadline. And, I was quite willing to claim. In fact, I wanted to. I just didn't have an excuse to. (I didn't want to claim in lylo, I wanted to claim earlier than that because I thought it'd look better if done pre-lylo.)

[mastina]

I mean I hinted to you Skye crumbed and you not picking it up was weird.

I'd think that scumastina would be more attuned to picking up 'crumbs than I am as town because as town I've no reason to and this game I did have reason to--I legit didn't see it in spite of being on the lookout for 'crumbs. I was LOOKING for them and didn't see them.

[mastina]

i mean, right, but even as cop, i would have investigated dunn, probably, maybe skye/akarin

Yes but an innocent was worse than a guilty (see also Akarin's innocent on Dunn).

An innocent was something we couldn't argue as invalid.

We could argue a guilty wasn't a guilty. E.g. a combined tracker-doctor could look guilty; Gypyx could've modified his claim to be a reflexive role that'd look like a guilty.

We needed to kill the cop not to prevent an investigate on us, but to prevent a hard-inno in lylo that made one player be above reproach.

[mastina]

Town you imho is better at it openly. Scum you picks it up but doesn’t comment. So you not even reacting at all was weird:

Because I didn't pick it up at all.