Micro 984: my beautiful dark twisted familytree [COMPLETE]

[Bingle]

V/LA til Wednesday

[Bingle]

Glad I could join this time. I won’t be claiming my iteration submission. Someone tldr how we caught scum?

[Bingle]

Someone tldr how we caught scum?

Legitimate question, Cakez. I would like to veto any subjective talk until we get the possible autowin (Or nearly autowin) off the table. Are any/all of our IC's claimed?

[Bingle]

Are any/all of our IC's claimed?

[Bingle]

To clarify the reason for this question:

If none of our ICs have claimed and it's reasonably unlikely that scum know who the child is, we can have either (Not both) the mother or the father claim and chain lims through the non confirmed players until we hit scum. without giving away the child.

We have a lim pool of 3 players, and are potentially in MYLO. If we have an obscured IC child, we can give scum a 1/3 shot at the child on a misyeet with a 1/3 chance of giving us autowin and a 1/3 chance of a 50/50 tomorrow using this strat (Their other option, of course, being just biting the bullet and giving us a second shot at the yeet pie). The more we discuss reads, the more likely scum is to be able to guess the child.

[Bingle]

Aight.

Mother Claims, picks a yeet. That person claims Father not Father. If father, we are then in functional 3p XLO. If not father, we yeet. No discussion, no elaboration. If tomorrow happens Father claims and outs child to guarantee it's an accurate claim if still alive.

Child doesn't claim, ever. CC's obviously win us the game.

[Bingle]

No yeet is inferior mathematically.

[Bingle]

Spoiler: Mother Claim Route

Today:

25% Father Picked -> 33% winrate
25% Mafia Picked -> 100% winrate
50% VT Picked -> Night Phase

Night Phase

1/3 Child kill -> 0% winrate
1/3 Father kill -> 50% winrate
1/3 VT kill -> 50% winrate

OR

Mother Kill -> 66% win Rate

Spoiler: Full Claim Route

33% winrate

Spoiler: No Yeet Route

20% Child kill -> 0% win rate
40% M/F kill -> 33% win rate (kind of, we can actually break this down further but I don't wanna)
40% VT kill -> 50% win rate

More than 1/2 the time we're in the same boat or autoloss.

[Bingle]

Huh, math wise we actually lose .1% more often no yeeting here than just full claiming and making this XLO.

[Bingle]

EVs, fully calculated are:

50%
33.3%
33.2%

assuming optimal claims.

[Bingle]

Yeah, it's not a big rush.

I might do some EV calcs for D1 strats for future iterations, assuming we didn't get a 1 iteration rand. I'm not really opposed to going the 33% route for the sake of fun and developing the ability to read each other (the more used to each other we get the more often town should win the game, theoretically) but I am firmly opposed to no yeeting here.

[Bingle]

You see, this is why I asked if any of the three IC's had claimed. That makes no yeeting substantially worse. Has anyone claimed mother?

[Bingle]

Eh. Apparently not substantially. Redoing the numbers the No Yeet is still very marginally worse than just playing this as XLO. It does give scum the option of just killing Cakez and not giving us any benefit, though, so it's still a bad idea.

[Bingle]

Oh, insomnia did.

Great, that path is closed to us.

From a purely numbers standpoint, No Yeet gives us a 1/3 chance of losing tonight and then a 2/3 chance of being in 50/50 tomorrow, which is identical mathematically to just outing the child and playing XLO.

And that assumes that you've done nothing to indicate who the child is, which seems unlikely.

[Bingle]

Also bingle, I’m interested in your confidence in making recommendations about what we should do without having read the game.

?

Why would I need to read the game to do game theory?

[Bingle]

Literally none.

I had zero time to read while V/LA and in fact made the V/LA post from my phone without checking the thread.

I also had not read anything other than flips prior to this discussion because if I was going to shut up and listen to an IC knowing anything about relationships between players was irrelevant.

[Bingle]

Cool, but that doesn't mean that you haven't accidentally given it away in an interaction. It's a WIFOM game that doesn't actually net us any gain in mathematical likelihood to win. With both parents claimed, our best bet is a presumptive XLO. We can't possibly elim the child (3/6 votes just won't ever be placed there). It's likely we lose if we miselim, although the EV is actually better than 33% now that I think about it because there is a chance that scum will pick the VT over the child if we kill off a VT regardless of how unlikely I think that actually is, subjectively.

[Bingle]

Actually, wait. My numbers are off. We don't autolose on a no elim child kill. That would leave us with 3 alive one scum. Presumptive best play there is kill Cakez -> kill insomnia -> shoot for child. We're in a 2/3 50/50 or a 1/3 33% which is better odds than the 33% we're at currently.

(Still worse than no parent claims, but w/e)

I retract my refusal to no yeet, although likely we have to no yeet three times. Our EV is 44%.

[Bingle]

@mod: is there a deadthread for this game? Will the deadthread be published between iterations if it exists?

[Bingle]

Expected Value.

Basically, if everyone makes the correct decision, you completely disregard the effect on the outcome of the game attributed to read accuracy, and you presume eliminations happen by completely random chance within some pool determined by a strategy, how often should town win the game. If we no elim here, we should have a 44.44444444% chance of winning the game purely on the shoulders of probability.

Of course, expected value and game balance aren't exactly equivalent (for example, nightless setups tend to have a significantly higher win rate in practice than the EV would account for and mountainous setups have a significantly lower), but it's a good starting place for balancing setups and developing breaking strategies.

[Bingle]

That's not so much an issue, actually. If they hit the child, we're in a XLO that is equivalent to treating today as an XLO, but without the conftown around. If they don't we're in a 1v1.

Smart scum will snipe you and insomnia first.

[Bingle]

instead did a lot of stuff

I mean... Duh. Solving here isn't the priority as much as getting a baseline setup for the future games. I thought that was obvious. I assume that all of us are subtly manipulating things to push for a better position in the rounds where we personally know that there's a chance the game ends, and I'm pretty willing to gamble that's not round 1. Do I want to win round one? Sure. Am I going to put a lot of extra effort into winning round one when I can instead establish precedent so that the rounds where my winning matters more and the odds are I'll be town are easier? No.

Am I going to attempt to gamesolve publicly, even a little, before we commit to making an elimination? No. Because in the case of both No Yeet and the single IC claim, talking about reads is distinctly antitown as it helps provide scum with a roadmap to nightkills.

[Bingle]

That's what I was kinda thinking too. It just seems like the right thing to do.

It is. I had it in my head for some reason that if we no yeeted and scum hit the child we would instalose. That is not the case.

[Bingle]

Right... well.

VOTE: No Elim

[Bingle]

We no eliminate 3 times, and scum kills 3 peeps, two of which are ICs.

Then, either we have a 1v1 between scum and vt or a 1v1 between scum and child or a regular 3p XLO.

[Bingle]

I mean... the same benefit to no eliminate still exists. It’s kinda like I explained that we’d need to do it three times to get anything useful out of it. I’m bored enough with game one to just play like XLO though.

VOTE: no elim

[Bingle]

I will be sheeping insomnia or voting no elim today. I will not be sharing reads.

[Bingle]

this is elo fypov, isn’t it, insomnia?

It’s not. If we miselim we have a 25% chance to win.

[Bingle]

Don’t out the kid.

[Bingle]

Either pick a yeet or a no yeet. Picking a yeet is probably superior.

[Bingle]

Picking a yeet is 50/50, no yeet is 4/9, outing the kid is 1/3.

[Bingle]

It's too early for me to figure out the math. Can you break that down a little bit more Bingle?

Sure. Here's some pretty pictures.

Spoiler:

[Bingle]

The best part is you picked the one with the typos to approve.

[Bingle]

Not necessarily. You don’t have to marry to be a mom and it’s not even true that all married people have rings.

Maybe you’re a jewelry-less single parent.

[Bingle]

I mean...

We don't really have a choice.

Insomnia votes someone and we all sheep, or insomnia votes no elim and we all sheep, or people start talking about reads and then we throw a crying baby out an airplane or something.

[Bingle]

so am I voting or wat

I think you have the ball, so yeah.

The big, spiky murder ball of death. Just toss it gently at someone’s face.

[Bingle]

VOTE: bingle

[Bingle]

Am town, hammer anyway.

insomnia, you almost 100% live through the night. Don't feel bad about yeeting me, I've done precisely 0 AI things. Play XLO with everyone claiming who they think Baby is and why to generate content to analyze, and then solve the 1v1, but remember that there's not really a risk to losing here so don't worry about pressure. I actually was hoping for this outcome so I can talk theory with Koba with both of us in a position where we are presumed town in the next iteration, so if you could give us at least until Tuesday before ending XLO that'd be swell.

[Bingle]

Also:

[Bingle]

Nope. Talking further is bad. Please hammer.

[Bingle]

Basically, I'm confirmed to not be the child and not confirmed to not be mafia, so I need to die now.

[Bingle]

i think 1-3 days should be fine

Agreed.

[Bingle]

I'd be interested in seeing what scum knowing which one of them is the loving parent does to the next iteration, btw. It's worth it in my mind to try it at least.

[Bingle]

It also means the scum child can be safely nkd if we hit the loving parent with an elim.

[Bingle]

So we voting Bingle right fellas? For old times' sake

I have never lost a towngame where I yeeted town PB.

VOTE: PB

Sorry buddy, but gambler's fallacy hates you.

[Bingle]

im so ready

town

Ditto.

town

Let’s do this thang!

town

damn, mafia again

town

Confirming the reception of a role PM

scum

Conf new role PM

town

Oh. Hi.

scum

VOTE: petapan

randed scum again i suppose.

town

I'm very disappointed that you didn't quote my pretty pictures and call me town.

[Bingle]

VOTE: mathblade

giving out townreads for free?

On the contrary.

DV noticed what I had. The statement above is too particular and laser focused. It had a caveat of Bingle being town and PB being town.

It hints at Bingle being scum and PB being town how it was written.

I don’t give out reads for free. That’s not how I roll and I don’t know what to make of you implying I am.

It really doesn't. There's a pundit square here:

If we're both scum, it's against my interests to vote PB.
If we're unaligned, it's for my interests to vote PB.
If we're both town, limming PB will somehow magically make me win.

Obviously voting PB is optimal.

[Bingle]

btw we should have a town parent claim at EoD and decide a lim so we avoid outting town child. if you're child and u get chosen by the town parent just stfu and take the lim bc u give us a free lim.

Not a bad take. What's your definition of end of day, and should we specify which parent?

[Bingle]

The suggestion was a natural d1 with a first right of refusal from an IC to swerve the elim if desired. For now, I think it's fair to say don't hammer until town parents have had a chance to weigh in and no claims before 24 hours remaining is fine.

Are you still of the opinion you have a solid tell on me Math?

[Bingle]

I think this conversation is anti town.

Interesting, and also irrelevant. Unless you think that this game is the real game for some reason, the setup spec is probably going to happen before the real game anyway because you've already brought it up.

I see no reason not to have what is functionally a BP IC make the final call on the elim for D1.

[Bingle]

The suggestion was a natural d1 with a first right of refusal from an IC to swerve the elim if desired. For now, I think it's fair to say don't hammer until town parents have had a chance to weigh in and no claims before 24 hours remaining is fine.

Are you still of the opinion you have a solid tell on me Math?

What is up with both you and Koba saying I say tell when I don’t?

I don’t really follow the second two premises of your Punnet Square. They seem disconnected. I may just be being stupid intentionally *shrug*.. I thought it best to leave alone for now.

In the wake of Police Academy you had said you had a solid scumtell to use on me. It was a long time ago in a galaxy far far away (due to galactic drift), but I was wondering if you still have that opinion or not.

wrt the logic behind mislimming PB being a positive, it's an in joke. We had like 4 games in a row where I led a mislim on him and then we won for a completely unrelated reason. And also I may have modded a game where he got dayvigged before his first post.

This is a public Jingle alt, btw. not sure if you knew that.

[Bingle]

I am not sure I follow. “This game is the real game?”

We're playing the game multiple times, and there's only a chance that this is the one that matters. No one knows, other than knowing which game number they submitted to be the "Real Game" and so saving setup spec to obfuscate but bringing it up in what is likely not a game that needs to be won seems iffy at best to me.

[Bingle]

I think MB is moonlogicking right now, but I also think

VOTE: Koba

[Bingle]

- only the last iteration of this game will count. however, since it is secret, any iteration of the game may be the last, even the first.

[Bingle]

I'm playing to win the iteration that matters over any other iteration. I will still try in iterations I believe are unlikely to matter, as I have no real guarantee they don't, but I'm also setting up for future games that I think are more likely to be important.

[Bingle]

was that dayvig game where marquis dayvigged scum immediately because i have read through a lot of games for meta in a few recent towngames

Nah, it was a micro where scummastina dayvigged PB in literally the first post of the game. It was beautiful.

[Bingle]

Ah. I have a bell curve I've decided on to model how much I think a game is likely to matter. Game 1 was almost impossible to be the real game, and the game I submitted is my peak. I will of course be adjusting as games end, but guessing who would choose what game is also interesting to me so I'm taking that as as much of the setup as the actual setup.

[Bingle]

Subject: Micro 917: Saga Mafia Game Over!

Day Start 1

With 9 alive, it is 5 to Lynch!

mastina (0):
CheekyTeeky (0):
Pine (0):
Sujimichi (0):
50 Judge Powers (0):
TrueSoulEnergy (0):
TemporalLich (0):
Not Known 15 (0):
Pink Ball (0):

Not Voting (9): mastina, CheekyTeeky, Pine, Sujimichi, 50 Judge Powers, TrueSoulEnergy, TemporalLich, Not Known 15, Pink Ball

Deadline: Day 1 will end in (expired on 2020-01-28 18:00:00)

Pink Ball has been killed!

He was:

Spoiler: Pink Ball

Welcome, Pink Ball to Saga Mafia!

You are

Ghüs

, a Seal-Man from the Planet Quietus. You are aligned with Hazel's Family, and win when all Threats to Hazel have been eliminated.

One of the Herd

: You raise your herd on a remote planet. Should you choose, you may give one of the members of your herd to another player once during each day. They will be told they have received this gift, but not who sent it. This notification will be flavored, but will have no further effect.

Vote Count 1.1

With 8 alive, it is 5 to Lynch!

mastina (0):
CheekyTeeky (0):
Pine (0):
Sujimichi (0):
50 Judge Powers (0):
TrueSoulEnergy (0):
TemporalLich (0):
Not Known 15 (0):

Not Voting (8): mastina, CheekyTeeky, Pine, Sujimichi, 50 Judge Powers, TrueSoulEnergy, TemporalLich, Not Known 15

Deadline: Day 1 will end in (expired on 2020-01-31 18:00:00)

Those were consecutive posts. It's a fun read if anyone is bored.

[Bingle]

@Bingle I really hate your ass right now, I come back after six months without playing and this is how I get welcomed?

I love you too, Pink Buddy. I'm just getting my licks in cause I'm tr-ing you pretty hard atm.

[Bingle]

VOTE: petapan

Tell me more, tell me more.

[Bingle]

Eh. My actively lurking ass hasn't had a problem with it yet. I don't think Math is scum. Burning the towncred here when he can just shut up and ride the DV wagon/Koba meltdown doesn't make much sense unless he's scum with specifically DV, and I don't think he's scum with DV. Also Math said something that I don't think occurs to scum Math, which I can elaborate on if it truly becomes necessary. Koba is either scum-caught-for-the-wrong-reasons which I think spews MB/PB as town or a mechanically solid information yeet, and I'm pretty happy with my vote either way.

[Bingle]

A game with Titus AND Mathblade? I feel like it's 2015.

[Bingle]

A game with Titus AND Mathblade? I feel like it's 2015.

I feel like I am dumb and supposed to get something here but I can’t find the reference I am supposed to know.

I think that's the last time when all of us were concurrently active, and I used to use Titus as a reference for how to deal with reading you. (Don't try to read WHAT you say, but rather go by results and check to see if you're pushing a narrative. Also, iirc you two were fairly close.)

[Bingle]

pooky is calling koba scum but wont vote them because he wants to fish for a parent or the town child

lol arent parents supoosed to claim

If'n they desire to, they will.

[Bingle]

Hey guys.

Hardclaim Mother.

VOTE: DK

[Bingle]

Nah I don’t think Titus is scum here.
She’s been overwhelmingly disappointing recently.
Would need to see D2 to confirm.
The exception is if Koba is scum.

DV/Pooky/Bingle all scum there still my final answer

You do realize I’m an uncc’d PR in an open who has been shamelessly active lurking to avoid dropping child tells and I’d get cc’d if I were scum, right?

[Bingle]

My final thoughts before this day ends and I get nightkilled are that DV and Titus are my biggest scumreads, so hopefully you guys will deal with them

Sorry, Mr floof, but crumbing you as child was very believable and I did genuinely townread you.

Now that the why behind my lurking is known, I’m probably gonna be slightly more useful in that I’m gonna ask for clarifications on people’s reads. Still not sharing reads of my own. Likely won’t veto a vote unless it’s necessary. If you’re the father claim before hammer.

[Bingle]

*claim before you get hammered, I should say.

[Bingle]

Generic question: who makes sense as scum with DV?

[Bingle]

Goddammit I hate being an IC.

[Bingle]

Eh. Likely doesn't matter for this iteration anyway.

VOTE: DV

If I die, both childs claim and you yeet outside of that. If 3 childs claim, you yeet outside of that. If 4 childs claim, don't yeet outside of that or we lose.

[Bingle]

/still in

[Bingle]

caveat: I don't plan to log into either of my main accounts tomorrow.

[Bingle]

Bingle dont claim parent if i claim vt again >:(

I mean... I still say that I got unlucky that the person I pointed mafia at was the Father and that PB's child implications were stronger than my secondary and tertiary child implications.

Kinda sad I didn't swing the D2 lim onto pooky though.

[Bingle]

i've always wanted to be koba's big brother

But have you always wanted to be Koba’s unloved big brother?

[Bingle]

im actually voting my town child no wifom

Can you add some Wifom? I’m almost out of rum and I’m gonna need something to drink on the drive to the liquor store.

[Bingle]

Oh, are we mislimming PB?

VOTE: PB

Down.

[Bingle]

Hey, sorry I thought my pm said I was dead and didn’t notice otherwise until I went looking for the dead thread.

I’ll ketchup in a little bit.

[Bingle]

Looking at the Titus/Math thing, I don't understand Math's positions and Titus seems reasonable. That makes me think Math is town.

I'm intentionally ignoring all of the child/parent Wifom discussions.

Math, could you expand on Titus/you being a scum endorsed distraction?

[Bingle]

I am the moderator. /s

Oh shit, me too. I didn't realize I was a Mathblade alt this whole time.

[Bingle]

I wanna hear DV's response to 1751, but that post is interesting to me.

[Bingle]

Eh. Probably not real. Lazy sheep mode activate.

VOTE: DV

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

[Bingle]

Oh shit, we only have an hour. VOTE: titus I guess

[Bingle]

Hello? Is anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me. Is there anyone home?

[Bingle]

I’d also flashwagon peta cause 1751 looks like child hunting.

[Bingle]

Dammit, EP you got my hopes up.

[Bingle]

Also, pagetop.

[Bingle]

Cmon Koba, you were on an hour ago. We need a hammer.

[Bingle]

Yeah... 3 minutes looks like a no elim to me.

[Bingle]

Deadline passed.

Wdym hammer sitting?

[Bingle]

i think they shot titus thinking that they were child and i didnt hammer on purpose lol

That's a dumb thought.

[Bingle]

Votecount 1.4 - final

SirCakez

(5): PookyTheMagicalBear,

Pink Ball

, MathBlade, DkKoba, petapan

petapan

(1): DeasVail

Pink Ball

(1): Bingle

PookyTheMagicalBear

(1): SirCakez

Not Voting

(1): Titus

5 majority. Deadline in

(expired on 2020-12-30 16:07:00)

Votecount 2.4 - final

Titus

(3): DeasVail, Bingle, MathBlade

DeasVail

(1): petapan

MathBlade

(1): Titus

Not Voting

(1): DkKoba

WRT to V/CA, Titus is probably right about D1. PB doesn't look at all like he's concerned with the wagon going through. That means to me that the most likely DV isn't the partner, as arguably they *should* look the worst in light of the flip. Everyone else either has a reason to claim towncred from the elim.

The second wagon points to two possibilities. There's scum in {Bingle/DV/MB} which I doubt fully, or scum is confident in their ability to shoot the child tonight and didn't want to change the status quo.

From a nightkill standpoint: Pooky makes sense as a kill on a player who was just never going to get eliminated this game. Titus is a little weirder. Titus was defending me and was obviously not the child by any metric, which supports the theory that scum didn't want to shoot the child last night. I see two possible explanations for that: scum actively wanted to keep the child dichotomy alive for today because they thought they'd get an elimination out of it or scum couldn't afford not to keep the dichotomy alive today because they're a part of it.

Gun to my head, I think Koba is the last scum.

[Bingle]

Oh, also, I've come to the conclusion that I was the only person to actually submit a number of iterations and thus know which game counts.

[Bingle]

What does “doubt fully” mean here? If it means you really don’t think so why?

Every option seems unlikely independently.

[Bingle]

I am a bad guy this game because I am a girl by role pm.

Not as bad as PB. PB stole my child and left me to join the mafia with someone else.

This game is personal, and we need to find the goddamn homewrecker who thinks she can worm her way into my marriage.

[Bingle]

I kinda feel like I should just hammer Koba here, tbh. We could also No-lim and see if/who scum kills with no chance of the autoloss, but that just seems risky.

Eh, fuckit.

Sorry Koba if I screwed shit up.

VOTE: DK

[Bingle]

Votecount 1.4 - final

SirCakez

(5): PookyTheMagicalBear,

Pink Ball

, MathBlade, DkKoba, petapan

petapan

(1): DeasVail

Pink Ball

(1): Bingle

PookyTheMagicalBear

(1): SirCakez

Not Voting

(1): Titus

5 majority. Deadline in

(expired on 2020-12-30 16:07:00)

Votecount 2.4 - final

Titus

(3): DeasVail, Bingle, MathBlade

DeasVail

(1): petapan

MathBlade

(1): Titus

Not Voting

(1): DkKoba

WRT to V/CA, Titus is probably right about D1. PB doesn't look at all like he's concerned with the wagon going through. That means to me that the most likely DV isn't the partner, as arguably they *should* look the worst in light of the flip. Everyone else either has a reason to claim towncred from the elim.

The second wagon points to two possibilities. There's scum in {Bingle/DV/MB} which I doubt fully, or scum is confident in their ability to shoot the child tonight and didn't want to change the status quo.

From a nightkill standpoint: Pooky makes sense as a kill on a player who was just never going to get eliminated this game. Titus is a little weirder. Titus was defending me and was obviously not the child by any metric, which supports the theory that scum didn't want to shoot the child last night. I see two possible explanations for that: scum actively wanted to keep the child dichotomy alive for today because they thought they'd get an elimination out of it or scum couldn't afford not to keep the dichotomy alive today because they're a part of it.

Gun to my head, I think Koba is the last scum.

This analysis? 100% accurate. The lack of an immediate quick hammer on koba was to set up a possible Math/DV/me XLo in case I was well and truly snowed, but I never intended to kill the child when shooting Titus. That was all about making a kill that didn’t point at me and didn’t shake up the thread.

SirCakez, I’m really sorry that I stopped loving you, but I just realized that I love murder too much to have room for a child in my heart.

[Bingle]

Thanks for modding !

This was a lot of fun.

+1

I’m not sure I like the setup as a forum game, but it seems like it is balanced and should be crazy fun as a F2F/chat game. You guys were a blast to play with!

Not sure if any of you all are interested but I’ve got a 9p secret alt game with 3 jesters in the queue and fun faces are always a plus.

[Bingle]

wait there's 3 jesters?

Yup. Each Jester wins alone if they're limmed, and town and scum both lose if all three are limmed.

[Bingle]

Can we get scumthread access EP?

done - ep