Micro 993 | The End

[Frogsterking]

Hey froggie, we gonna get questions?

Yes. I'm making some last minute improvements.

[Frogsterking]

Momrangal is town?

[Frogsterking]

I think Amelie scum

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Amelie

[Frogsterking]

I did come back to the thread. There was nothing to see when I came back so I didn't bother to say anything.

Frogsterking explain where your confidence comes from to me.

This I'm not sure, past success, either real or--as others would argue--imagined

As for the FoS I assumed that the first two sentences were what had happened here, which is the scummiest thing I have to go on.

[Frogsterking]

Did you spend 15 minutes analysing the thread between those two posts?
Also feeling vaguely positive towards Momrangal. I don't think Amelie failing to come back to the thread is AI though

I did come back to the thread. There was nothing to see when I came back so I didn't bother to say anything. Frogsterking explain where your confidence comes from to me.

I did come back to the thread. There was nothing to see when I came back so I didn't bother to say anything.

Frogsterking explain where your confidence comes from to me.

This I'm not sure, past success, either real or--as others would argue--imagined

As for the FoS I assumed that the first two sentences were what had happened here, which is the scummiest thing I have to go on.

I think one and-a-half of the three observations from Klick are correct, I do remember looking at the thread look for about 15 minutes in between posting last night, and the main thing I was looking for were any clear signs a player was

not

saying something.

I disagree with Klick's assumption that you didn't return to the thread, I assumed (and believe) you did. I half agree that it's NAI, I think it depends and could be NAI as with most tells, but on the other hand I do think that behavior is a little more likely to come from scum and I'm not going to write it off.

[Frogsterking]

I have to get ready for work but I'll be right with everyone after work.
VOTE: Kop

I think think this opener is slightly scummy as well, I feel like the intent is to reassure, which implies some lack of assurance.

So slightly scummy opener + slightly scummy choice not to post later are the reasons behind my FoS.

[Frogsterking]

LOL

[Frogsterking]

LOL

[Frogsterking]

So obviously Finral is being executed today. I wish we could vote quickly but because of the duration of D1 I think we actually have to hunt for the partner first.

[Frogsterking]

If Amelie and Finral are just trying to push a quick win through then I think Finral should have faked an inno on a Townie to pocket them.

I find Amelie's reads here unbelievable purely because there is no reason whatsoever to trust what Finral is saying.

I think considering a PR died and my only TR got night killed I'm going to take a bit of a risk and assume Finral isn't bussing their partner.

That being said, Klick, why not unvote yesterday to take NM off e-1?

[Frogsterking]

I think scum team may think they're in a good spot, but they're not in a good spot at all right now fmpov.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Finral

Obvious scum. Deserves rope for that scummy hammer.

I will say that I believe Finral is town Seer here but mostly because I find Kop's reaction to the guilty to be very scummy. I have to work but I'll be back right after. Please no one hammer or leave the hammer available while I am away.

Where? I don't see the scum tell in Kop's reaction.

Can everyone unvote if town? We lose this game if we miselim today.
I am a Vanilla townie so I have no objections to Finral's Seer claim but I would like for this day to not end abruptly like yesterday did.

Why are you claiming? It reads like role fishing. Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

[Frogsterking]

Well on second thought I guess it wouldn't be auto loss. Nevermind, Seer just keep staying hidden for now, scum team can't read pr tells.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

And by clear, I meant that a PR could enter three way with a living inno report.

[Frogsterking]

Can everyone unvote if town? We lose this game if we miselim today.
I am a Vanilla townie so I have no objections to Finral's Seer claim but I would like for this day to not end abruptly like yesterday did.

Both of Finral and Kop's votes are fine here since from their perspectives they know each other are scum - Finral!town has a guilty on Kop, and Kop!town would know this isn't true.
I do concur that we should actually have a day today lol.

Finral, you'd better have a decent explanation for the quickhammer.

I hammered so I wouldn't be night killed.

Kop and then probably Klick, maybe Frogster.

Glad I didn't check Momrangel like I was going to.

Sorry, missed this.
From the start, this setup values the PRs at half an investigative (as in, there is a 50% chance a PR does anything). Why was avoiding a NK worth a blind execute?

That being said, Klick, why not unvote yesterday to take NM off e-1?

I figured we could get the game rolling from the info we'd get from the wagon. My vote in the first place was to encourage people to look elsewhere, because NM has a tendency to be an easy first wagon/vote.

I find both Finral and Kop rather scummy today.

So you believe that it's a bus?

[Frogsterking]

As far as bussing goes, I was thinking that Finral seemed pretty impulsive so might go for that kind of play, even though it's suboptimal. Still I feel like it's unlikely.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

#1 But how do you know the Seer can find a guilty on *anyone*?

This line of thinking implies there are Werewolves instead of Mafia, which we don't actually know (Finral could be Mafia fakeclaiming Seer). I find it fairly suspicious that you're defaulting to assuming that.

So you believe that it's a bus?

#2 Not really, more just that they both really look like scum individually.

I'd agree that a bus is unlikely but not impossible, and it's probably not worth our time considering the possibility unless one of them winds up alive tomorrow after the other is executed.

#1

I don't. That's why I said originally that leaving the pr alive could

potentially

be auto loss for scum. As I'll quote below, it seems to me that the scum team is pretty concerned with the identity of the Seer, which could be a sign that the setup is werewolves, but it could also just be fishing.

#2

I understand Finral, but why Kop?

If Klick is scum, they setup for the next day phase.

If Frogster is scum, they come in and fake claim Seer.

Alright so Frogsterking basically just counterclaimed.
There's no point in being secretive about prs at this point(it's open setup and we are in limlo) and I am now pretty certain that the scum team is just Kop and Frogsterking.

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

[Frogsterking]

Amelie is scum telling in 63 because by appealing to Klick she's making it obvious that she knows Klick is town, even though if you ISO her there's no indication previously that she townreads Klick.

[Frogsterking]

Amelie is scum telling in 63 because by appealing to Klick she's making it obvious that she knows Klick is town, even though if you ISO her there's no indication previously that she townreads Klick.

I'd like to see an actual case on me instead of posts like this.

Tell Finral in the scum chat that he can PM me after the game if he wants tips on finding the PR.

[Frogsterking]

Did you spend 15 minutes analysing the thread between those two posts?
Also feeling vaguely positive towards Momrangal. I don't think Amelie failing to come back to the thread is AI though

On reflection, I think this is a weak indication that both Klick and I are town, since Momrangal was the target of the night kill, it makes sense to eliminate the player that the townies are town reading. Though the obsession of finding the last PR makes me think that Finral was pretty convinced Momrangal was the PR.

[Frogsterking]

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

Scum risk a potential auto loss tomorrow if they're not able to identify the Seer today.

Mind telling me what you were thinking here?

I was thinking that a living pr could enter 3-way with a clear. Then I realized scum could cc if they had to do it wouldn't technically be auto loss.

But how do you know the Seer can find a guilty on *anyone*? This line of thinking implies there are Werewolves instead of Mafia, which we don't actually know (Finral could be Mafia fakeclaiming Seer). I find it fairly suspicious that you're defaulting to assuming that.

So you believe that it's a bus?

Not really, more just that they both really look like scum individually. I'd agree that a bus is unlikely but not impossible, and it's probably not worth our time considering the possibility unless one of them winds up alive tomorrow after the other is executed.

Did you spend 15 minutes analysing the thread between those two posts?
Also feeling vaguely positive towards Momrangal. I don't think Amelie failing to come back to the thread is AI though

On reflection, I think this is a weak indication that both Klick and I are town, since Momrangal was the target of the night kill, it makes sense to eliminate the player that the townies are town reading. Though the obsession of finding the last PR makes me think that Finral was pretty convinced Momrangal was the PR.

I'm also interpreting Klick's attempts to sort myself and Kop quoted above as another weak town tell, making me confident enough to end the day.

This is a scum narrative being pushed together IMO. Like I said, they're not doing a good job reading pr signals.

Ok, town seer. Who did you check last night?

I hope you realize that you have pushed yourself into a corner where you cannot say you checked anyone except Kop.

Unfortunately you've backed yourself into a corner by setting up teams too early IMO based on your team's overconfidence in their ability to get a drop on the incoming counter claim.

[Frogsterking]

@Klick

I'm confident enough to end the day at this point, I have a mild town case on you and a shockingly solid scum case on Amelie, I didn't really read Amelie's walls because I believe they're tinfoil, if you're having trouble sorting this game I can make one wall and it will be more persuasive than Amelie's IMO.

If it's unnecessary for me to post my wall for you to sort then I believe it's better that I don't because it's basically just giving scum team information at that point.

[Frogsterking]

Kop do you have any thoughts on Finral's partner?

[Frogsterking]

Kop do you have any thoughts on Finral's partner?

It's obviously at this stage between you and Amelie.

She does have good points however about your subtle hints on counter claiming Finral. How are you so confident that Finral is scum?

She does not have any good points IMO and I stopped reading her walls as soon as I saw where she was going with it. If you think that I'm making any subtle hints then you're just being manipulated.

I do believe that, Amelie and Finral truly believe I'm PR, but that I was their third guess for PR, and they're only pushing this case now because they realized they were wrong about you and Momrangal.

I think Finral is obv scum because of the quick hammer + the role fishing. If that weren't enough, the excuses he made about being afraid of the night kill or whatever were terrible and don't make much sense. His comment about checking Momrangal didn't make much sense either FMPOV because she seemed townie.

[Frogsterking]

Kop do you have any thoughts on Finral's partner?

It's obviously at this stage between you and Amelie.

She does have good points however about your subtle hints on counter claiming Finral. How are you so confident that Finral is scum?

She does not have any good points IMO and I stopped reading her walls as soon as I saw where she was going with it. If you think that I'm making any subtle hints then you're just being manipulated.

I do believe that, Amelie and Finral truly believe I'm PR, but that I was their third guess for PR, and they're only pushing this case now because they realized they were wrong about you and Momrangal.

I think Finral is obv scum because of the quick hammer + the role fishing. If that weren't enough, the excuses he made about being afraid of the night kill or whatever were terrible and don't make much sense. His comment about checking Momrangal didn't make much sense either FMPOV because she seemed townie.

In sales they call it "spinning". The narrative that's being pushed by Finral and Amelie is a "spin" for you to reread my posts and think that I'm softing pr and this is somehow a scum tell. You could just as easily reread my posts with a "spin" that I'm laser focused on game-solving and being correct in my reads to the extent I'm slightly anti-town. The second narrative is making a lot less assumptions, and in this case happens to be correct.

[Frogsterking]

Kop please work with me here, Amelie is open wolfing.

[Frogsterking]

Kop do you have any thoughts on Finral's partner?

It's obviously at this stage between you and Amelie.

She does have good points however about your subtle hints on counter claiming Finral. How are you so confident that Finral is scum?

She does not have any good points IMO and I stopped reading her walls as soon as I saw where she was going with it. If you think that I'm making any subtle hints then you're just being manipulated.

I do believe that, Amelie and Finral truly believe I'm PR, but that I was their third guess for PR, and they're only pushing this case now because they realized they were wrong about you and Momrangal.

I think Finral is obv scum because of the quick hammer + the role fishing. If that weren't enough, the excuses he made about being afraid of the night kill or whatever were terrible and don't make much sense. His comment about checking Momrangal didn't make much sense either FMPOV because she seemed townie.

I'm surprised Kop is not scum reading me which is throwing me off a bit right now but I really do not see a world where Kop is town here but I do need to think on this a bit more.

If Kop were town, then Finral would be scum with Klick and I don't think I see that over just Kop and Frogsterking because Frogsterking is bleeding scum here and if Frogsterking is scum, it's with Kop.

No, I think they are trying to confuse us but it's strange that Kop isn't pushing me because that would be the optimal play here for him but .. AH I want to scream this is confusing me now.

Why should I be scum reading you? I know Finral is scum, but why with Klick?

If anything, if you aren't scum, then it is probably a higher chance to be Frog rather than Klick.

Kop do you have any thoughts on Finral's partner?

It's obviously at this stage between you and Amelie.

She does have good points however about your subtle hints on counter claiming Finral. How are you so confident that Finral is scum?

She does not have any good points IMO and I stopped reading her walls as soon as I saw where she was going with it. If you think that I'm making any subtle hints then you're just being manipulated.

I do believe that, Amelie and Finral truly believe I'm PR, but that I was their third guess for PR, and they're only pushing this case now because they realized they were wrong about you and Momrangal.

I think Finral is obv scum because of the quick hammer + the role fishing. If that weren't enough, the excuses he made about being afraid of the night kill or whatever were terrible and don't make much sense. His comment about checking Momrangal didn't make much sense either FMPOV because she seemed townie.

In sales they call it "spinning". The narrative that's being pushed by Finral and Amelie is a "spin" for you to reread my posts and think that I'm softing pr and this is somehow a scum tell. You could just as easily reread my posts with a "spin" that I'm laser focused on game-solving and being correct in my reads to the extent I'm slightly anti-town. The second narrative is making a lot less assumptions, and in this case happens to be correct.

Amelie is just spewing nonsense right now. Like I pointed out, I do believe that Amelie and Finral genuinely believe I'm the Seer, which is why she's appealing to you now Kop.

Kop, don't forget that Amelie's reads have followed no natural progression this game, and she is appealing to you now as though you're town even though it makes no sense from her point of view, since she believes Finral is real.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not sure why I am even reasoning with the two scum here. I'm going to wait for the townies to come online.

You're doing it because you felt instinctively that you need Kop to side with your narrative, and now you understand why it was a mistake for Finral to out with a guilty instead of an inno. Soon you will realize that Finral has no ability to read for PR, and you should not have let them call the shots for your team. I read your finished scum game, you can play much better than this IMO, I think it's Finral's fault.

[Frogsterking]

There has been a lot of content since I last checked
Not much time for the next few hours, but I should be able to get on to check stuff out tonight.

I'm not having

any

difficulty reading this game, if you aren't either, I suggest silent voting Finral after you get a chance to reread tonight. I'll check back tonight or tomorrow morning and if I see a silent Finral vote I'll follow suit.

[Frogsterking]

Nice. I read Klick as Seer. Was it Kop?

[Frogsterking]

to be fair, I trapped him with my "He's just gonna claim Seer" trick.

No you actually mis played heavily.

[Frogsterking]

I'm a little disappointed that whoever was seer didn't claim but I'll take the blame for this loss anyways.

Yeah, what made you trust Finral?

[Frogsterking]

We both thought it was you! I guess Kop could also be it. Glad we went for the win today then

Yes, like I said, that read made no sense lmao. Scum hunting isn't a pr tell.

[Frogsterking]

I'm a little disappointed that whoever was seer didn't claim but I'll take the blame for this loss anyways.

Yeah, what made you trust Finral?

I found you extremely scummy. That is why I trusted Finral.

Huh. Interesting.

PEdit: I never once hinted at being Seer. I distrusted Finral enough to not require a counterclaim, because surviving to D3 will increase Town's chances of winning.

[Frogsterking]

I played it all wrong, I was the seer and had a guilty on Finral

I tried to ride Finral and hoped that possibly his partner would have jumped on, and then pushed for Finral to eat rope, and survive the next night giving us a better chance of winning the game, as I would have either found the second scum, or got an inno. In normal circumstances I would have came out with the counter claim had we had a doctor, or some sort of blocking feature. Sorry guys/girl.

For what it's worth I think it was a fair play, I was thinking along the same lines, I think Finral does get executed in most game states there.

[Frogsterking]

It didn't make sense to me that you distrusted Finral without a counterclaim.

It was because I believed they were role phishing after confirming their alignment via the quick hammer.

In most cases I believe they should automatically be executed, but because of the duration of D1 I thought it would be helpful to scum hunt first.

[Frogsterking]

I think this was an unfortunate clash of playstyles on town's part and not really any individual's fault. Don't feel too bad.

It seems this way to me, yes. Maybe if I had opened faster with the big survey start it would have enabled us to overcome the playstyle clash before it was too late.

[Frogsterking]

I thought froggie killed me so he wouldn't have anyone on his back about OCEAN

I wonder if it would have helped get town on the same page in a way that completely changed the outcome of this game.

I was working on improving the questions when something happened IRL which was why I didn't post it. When I came back to the thread it was already in D2.

[Frogsterking]

I think Finral does get executed in most game states there.

I've played this setup so many times in face to face, when you see the scum PT, we called out exactly how this day would play.

Face to face is easy to control the game state because players are not good and you can persuade them more easily with body language, so that's not a sign to me that you chose a line of play that is superior.

I've played this game state out many times in a different format (livechat, which this game felt similar to) and your chosen line of play has a negative expected value and relies on your ability to correctly identify the remaining PR which you did not do.

To be fair, I knew exactly what I had to do to get Amelie to vote in an area I wanted her to. It was just unfortunate that nobody knew that my alt was outed, because if she knew that was me, I don't think it'd have worked.

So don't feel bad, Amelie, I kind of played the setup specifically to get you to vote one of them.

If this is true and you had Amelie as a mark since N1 then I think the play was strong. It reminds me of a LAG player from texas hold em.

[Frogsterking]

to be fair, I trapped him with my "He's just gonna claim Seer" trick.

No you actually mis played heavily.

I clearly misplayed here

it was only a misplay on a mechanical level, not a sociological level.

I also knew I had the support of Klick who trusts me as a player, and then you spewed yourself scum afterwards by speaking.

I can +1 on the mechanical misplay vs sociological, like I said, if indeed you had Amelie as a mark from N1 then it reminds me of a LAG move.

As for the second comment about my play I can only agree with if by scum spewing you meant to say obv towning.

[Frogsterking]

You... Did spew yourself as scum d2 frog

Nah.

[Frogsterking]

you definitely did not obv town to Amelie, and you allowed momentum to turn on you.

You went super attack mode without having reasons.

Your gut read on me was correct, you knew I was scum.

Doesn't matter if you can't get me faded.

Face to face is easy to control the game state because players are not good and you can persuade them more easily with body language, so that's not a sign to me that you chose a line of play that is superior.

Well, this is like the third time in a few months I've won essentially the same way, so

it's not always better to do the "best play"

me making what you perceive as a mistake is why I became townier to Amelie.

I just knew how to get Amelie to vote the direction I wanted, and then I trapped you, and you came out super aggressively, something I already knew you would do, especially if I egged you on the way I did.

Don't take it personally, but considering you consider yourself a master manipulator, there's only so far I'm willing to believe what you say. I believe master manipulators start by manipulating themselves first and foremost. If it makes you feel any better, I did take something away from the game, about controlling tempo, and as long as you genuinely had Amelie as a mark, I believe you made a good choice going against the mechanics. Only you can know if you really had Amelie as a mark, or if it's necessary for you to believe that in order to maintain your ability to manipulate.

[Frogsterking]

I mean, once scum PT opens up, you can see it for yourself to believe that I expected Amelie to vote one of you or kop specifically.

This would not have been a victory had I not done that.

Just because the play itself doesn't make "mechanical sense" is why it's not pushed as scum behavior.

Most scummy things are not actually scummy, and they're town doing bad things.

I empathize it's difficult to grasp my point here because it requires thinking beyond a surface level; master manipulators start by manipulating themselves, only you can know if you truly had Amelie as a mark or if you left whatever comments in the PT for yourself later as a smoking gun.