Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over]

[MURDERCAT]

Wait that was hammer omg

This reads so fake to me

I think scum risked trying to get an inno onto dwlee because they knew that vote looked bad and that dwlee would be targeted for it. Agree that clidd is likely the townie they added because otherwise they are giving a guilty away

Let me do some math

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: Arcangel9
Hard gut vote here.

Why not pooky?

[MURDERCAT]

Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9. If dwlee and clidd are both scum, then we know that dwlee is scum. If 1 of them is scum then we know it must be dwlee because one of the results must be true. So the only scenario to really consider is if they are both town.

If dwlee and clidd are both town then the odds that we get a guilty on dwlee are 1/2 * 3/8 = 3/16. Using bayes theorem, we can say that the probability that dwlee is town given the guilty is equal to the probability of a guilty given dwlee is town (3/16) times the independent probability of dwlee being town (6/9) divided by the independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8). Do all the arithmetic and you end up with 1/3.

[MURDERCAT]

Angel is my vote because I think her reaction coming into today was bad

say more then

[MURDERCAT]

Hmm I guess you could include the additional condition that T3 is town, but you'd have to go through all the math again and I'm starting work now

It just makes it less likely dwlee is town

[MURDERCAT]

This should be independent probability of a guilty yeah?

Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...

The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies

[MURDERCAT]

Is there anyone defending pooky other than the person with the guilty..?

[MURDERCAT]

say more then

[MURDERCAT]

Y'all flipping scum is all a coin flip for me here so it's kind of entertaining.

Pedit: it's funny cause 3/8 is the same as the chance a random player is scum assuming no alignment information has been given lol

That's simply not true, you are absolutely more likely to be scum with a guilty

[MURDERCAT]

Y'all we have a guilty

Pooky is scum too but

Y'all

[MURDERCAT]

Infinity I need you to walk me through how this is a guilty if the true result is clidd.

This is disingenuous, we don't know which is true. It is more likely the one on you is true and clidd was the coin flip. Clidd is likely town because of the dynamics of being on the list, not because of the result

[MURDERCAT]

I don't understand why and how clidd is a town here?

Just unlikely that scum included 2 in the list, in my opinion

[MURDERCAT]

lol hey clidd

[MURDERCAT]

@dwlee If you were actually townie I'd not be pushing you, you literally put a townie to E-1 before quickhammer and then acted fake surprised right after the hammer. The guilty and your misreps about the math around that guilty are just extra on top.

[MURDERCAT]

lol

[MURDERCAT]

It's probably going to be pooky today anyway lmao

[MURDERCAT]

Wait that was hammer omg

How is this not surprise lol

[MURDERCAT]

omg is surprise that he hammered not that it was hammer.

Yeah I'm saying your surprise he hammered sounds fake

[MURDERCAT]

Massclaim?
I'll go first, townie.
VOTE: infinity

VOTE: T3
Okay E-1 this

X:01

VOTE: t3

2nd page still decent

X:04

It was literally 3 minutes apart, yes I think it was coordinated

[MURDERCAT]

Pooky who are the 3 scum

[MURDERCAT]

Pooky who are the 3 scum

r u trying to get me to miss so someone else gets mad at me?

I'm trying to figure out who the third scum is

[MURDERCAT]

why would scum!me help you figure it out dude?

Well the more content you make the easier it is regardless

[MURDERCAT]

The thing that MC is doing is using discussion of the mech to justify his insistence that I'm evil, and I don't think he has seriously entertained the idea of us being TvT like he should if he is town.

I also think that besides talking about me, his play is woefully lacking in any sort of solving. I don't think I'm misremembering when I say that I don't think MURDERCAT has even explained a single read other than insisting I'm scum on mech. He implicitly said that Arc is scum, but that comes across in way more of a "yes she is my scum buddy and I will bus her" way than a town!way. Why is she scum? He never even tries to solve her.

He also nitpicked me saying she was scummy for her posts only to come around on thinking she was scum (again with no reasons).

Again on him lacking reads, he hasn't given an opinion on Pooky besides saying he will probably be the days' elimination. Okay, so what does he think about that? Like he is just going to consolidate on it because it's inevitable? He should be trying to sort Pooky instead of defaulting to "he will be yeeted today" if he is town.

I have given reasons why you are scum besides mech

I have not said Arc is scum and I think the fact you are pushing there makes the slot more likely to be town. This is literally not based in truth whatsoever, literally CTRL-F my iso and find anywhere I said anything like that. You are straight up lying to cast doubt on me while complaining I'm not considering you are town lol

I quoted Infinity's post, both you and pooky are scum and it's clear I think that based on any reasonable (read: town) reading of my iso

[MURDERCAT]

Like seriously please anyone find anything in my iso about Arc, it is a straight up lie

[MURDERCAT]

@Murdercat

What are your reads besides Dwlee?

Pooky and dwlee are scum, I think you and Infinity are town. I think Datisi is likely town. Arc is probably town based on dwlee, but that read isn't based on play really so I'm not putting much weight into it.

[MURDERCAT]

Today, we should lynch between Dwlee9/Clidd/Pooky

Why ever clidd?

[MURDERCAT]

MC was way too casual about how pooky should just default be the day's Lim

Also not true. I said he would be the lim because of the votes he had and that Infinity and I are willing to lim there, but it was clear I thought it should be you instead

[MURDERCAT]

You're still scum tho sorry my guy.

How can I still be scum when a major reason you are scum reading me is completely fabricated lmao

[MURDERCAT]

And there is a specific thing I've been expecting you to say or at least suggest here that I 100% town!you would think to say.

Which is?

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: MurderCatto

I'll take a shower for you clidd

God this is so freaking bad dude

VOTE: Pooky

I'm am seriously not getting limed today over dwlee/pooky

[MURDERCAT]

murder who's scummy

??

[MURDERCAT]

Actually my MC read went down too.. If not pooky, I can settle with MC for today.

Literally everyone is piling on me for no reason

Why why why are we going to elim me and not the person who hammered a townie on page 2 or the person with the guilty
I've given reasoning for all my reads, how can anyone say I'm not scum hunting

[MURDERCAT]

Let's see if I can lead you to it: What's my scum game normally like?

Obviously you are getting at something about Dogs vs Cats Mafia but I townread you that game and it was multiball so I don't know what you expect from me.

[MURDERCAT]

So what does that suggest about my scum play?

You are capable of getting town reads? Are you saying why put you in the guilty pool as scum?

[MURDERCAT]

You are proving why because I'm getting run up instead of you lol
If there's a guilty on you, you have the confidence to fight through it, whereas Pooky has no chance due to the hammer

[MURDERCAT]

Like I'm not even fustrated that we "lost", I was just really really curious to see if that line of play would've won and I feel so unsatisfied not knowing the answer :<

I don't think I've ever really been upset with a replace out but I feel similarly. Particularly I feel bad for Pooky who I think was having a scummie level game and definitely had a real chance to win.

[MURDERCAT]

To be clear, I don't. I just think it's unfortunate