Micro 1026: 09:12 | Game Over

[MathBlade]

And you as conf town is pro town if you’re town

[MathBlade]

I think Mathblade is trying to seem resigned with their fate so we will townread him and vote elsewhere.
I do not trust them until dead.

You never trust me anyway

I just think if I was right on you d1 then

Having PR + conf + StD if you’re scum will pin you in.

[MathBlade]

It’s best of all worlds to elim me here
Know I am town follow my PR advice then have three confs into tomorrow.

[MathBlade]

Pretty much Babysitter can remove a potential scum
Follower can remove a potential scum.

Jailkeeper can hit StD again
Then babysitter/follower elsewhere

A kill confirms STD as town
If it’s babysitter it removes a PoE for scum so they lose
If it’s a follower then they either get a guilty or an inno.

Them claiming helps coordinate checks to avoid overlap

If you flip me remember this.

Marci should be on StD
Babysitter/Follower should be in the PoE

If a kill on Marci or anyone happens StD becomes conf town.

That should be night actions.

So yeah if PR listens to this on my green flip and checks Datisi this should be game if they are a follower

Just let me quote this after hammering me. Marci on StD and Follower/Babysitter on Datisi should win the game

Spamming this so people don’t forget

[MathBlade]

Std should 100% be the elim if you wanna be smart about it but if we have to do another day of no kills and get a few more confs then okay?

[MathBlade]

i dont see it...

You jail StD. If a kill happens StD can’t do it

Follower follows someone. If there is a kill then they either get X killed or X did nothing. This confirming alignment.

So three confs.

Whoever doesn’t die of Follower/you, StD, and follower results

[MathBlade]

does that work out for the numbers tho

Assuming a kill after my flip

7 alive 3 conf.
Assume miselim in pool
5 alive 2 conf
Assume miselim in pool
3 alive 1 conf

I think it works out well if a follower exists

[MathBlade]

Assuming no kill then STD should be lock scum

[MathBlade]

We also know scum will have to kill at some point as well so this dilemma will happen

[MathBlade]

Pretty much Babysitter can remove a potential scum
Follower can remove a potential scum.

Jailkeeper can hit StD again
Then babysitter/follower elsewhere

A kill confirms STD as town
If it’s babysitter it removes a PoE for scum so they lose
If it’s a follower then they either get a guilty or an inno.

Them claiming helps coordinate checks to avoid overlap

If you flip me remember this.

Marci should be on StD
Babysitter/Follower should be in the PoE

If a kill on Marci or anyone happens StD becomes conf town.

That should be night actions.

So yeah if PR listens to this on my green flip and checks Datisi this should be game if they are a follower

Just let me quote this after hammering me. Marci on StD and Follower/Babysitter on Datisi should win the game

Spamming this so people don’t forget

I gotta go but when I flip green this should happen
Or we should do the smart thing and elim StD

[MathBlade]

i'm literally the worst check because i'm so clearly town by virtue of not being an idiot who would bus my own strongman the whole game

i don't have time to read everything rn but that plan is Bad

Plan is good

If follower doesn’t agree on you they check someone else in the PoE and conf them

[MathBlade]

Either we are in a world where scum killed STD (I don't believe in this world), scum is STD, or a babysitter blocked the kill (I also don't believe in this world)

Good point. I know this is accurate but technically because I admitted I didn’t accept fast night there is a world where I could have not submitted a kill. I am a VT and as scum I always submit actions but you’d have to believe I didn’t for me to be scum. I am having a hard time both Norway and Marci believe this. I think it’s just paranoia on their part and STD is just scum.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: STD
Just jailkeep math tonight if you're pressed about it

Sounds good with me if we elim StD

[MathBlade]

@marci it's up to you, but i would like to recommend jailing norwee tonight if we yeet std and it greens

this is at least 75% because i don't want math to be conftown because then scum can freely sheep him

I’d rather be conf town because then I can make game breaking PoEs that scum can’t escape. I should be conf town for reasons but I don’t game the mod so *shrug*

[MathBlade]

i think i'd sooner believe std was a save rather than a block

if i'm wrong then my bad but i think i'd rather he be jailed again then yeeted

Or if std is scum we win the game.

[MathBlade]

Either we are in a world where scum killed STD (I don't believe in this world), scum is STD, or a babysitter blocked the kill (I also don't believe in this world)

Good point. I know this is accurate but technically because I admitted I didn’t accept fast night there is a world where I could have not submitted a kill. I am a VT and as scum I always submit actions but you’d have to believe I didn’t for me to be scum. I am having a hard time both Norway and Marci believe this. I think it’s just paranoia on their part and STD is just scum.

Night ending early was mod error

Uh huh….

Think about that a minute

If I was scum then how would the night end early, especially without a submission?

[MathBlade]

That’s all I will say on that. Today is going to be busy.

[MathBlade]

I think it’s more telling on those who don’t figure it out and I won’t spell it out as I feel it’s a bit too close to the line.

The way I figure is I will probably be elimmed or conf town.

Because if I am not elimmed then StD should be.
If StD is elimmed then we are in the PoE scum can’t afford a no kill
So should be conf town if I am jailed so I am okay with the plan however it goes
If I am miselimmed of which I can and will go Post game at whoever is town on it and then you listen to my mechanics plan as it’s known not to be BS now.

Town likely wins no matter what it’s just a matter of who wants to elim me out of imho bad paranoia.

[MathBlade]

i don't want to elim you out of bad paranoia i want to elim you bc your read on me is bad and you're refusing to listen to reason

but also i thought we should always be paranoid of you? or was that some scum bs you said in the mini normal

It’s not about reads anymore.
That’s the part you’re not following.

We are very close to 2226 levels of broken.

8 alive right now. 2 confirmed town.

If Marci announces who she jails are the end of the day (I know this is not typical) then we will gain another confirmed town if anyone dies.

If scum shoot Marci that stops that confirmed town angle.

However if there is a follower then we get another confirmed town/guilty from their check too.
If there is a babysitter then scum have to weigh if they are on Marci or not. (Imho they should be in the PoE)

So minimum if anyone dies then we are at 2 conf town 6 alive tomorrow assuming game is not over with std flip.
Best case it’s 1 guilty with 6 alive or 4 conf town with 6 alive.

Reads are becoming very very irrelevant.

[MathBlade]

I don’t have to be right anymore

I just have to confirm enough town that scum can’t win.

[MathBlade]

I don’t think that is the best use of our JK from my POV.
If we lim STD and they flip green. Marcistar should use the JK on Math or someone else, so that if Marvi dies we get another confirmed town.

Why would you not want to be confirmed town?

[MathBlade]

reads are not irrelevant because there's a difference btwn using one of those checks on a player in the poe or wasting it on someone who drove the strongman wagon for the whole day 1 lol

Except you didn’t lol and you tried to wagon anyone else at the end.

Not worth getting into this with you on

[MathBlade]

Anyone VT should be begging to be jailed at this point.

Because any death means confirmed town.

[MathBlade]

Except you didn’t lol and you tried to wagon anyone else at the end.

ah yes

which is why i kept my vote firmly planted on george, because i was hoping that i would be able to vote elsewhere

even though i was able to just Not vote george in the first place

i agree it's not worth getting into it with you but holy fuck

I’ve literally done this so yes.

See bussing Not Mafia in recently completed game with Marci.

It’s a common thing with dead weight scum to buy a day.

So yes it’s not unreasonable.

Scum do what they do for cred

Now I think it’s StD or Norway (based on Norway not wanting to be blocked)

But me suspecting you is not farfetched

[MathBlade]

nobody was scumreading george before me

i don't bus him for cred because any cred after he flips is irrelevant

go look at 2175 if you want to see how it actually looks when i switch to trying to save my partner after bussing them throughout day 1

Probably won’t as reads are irrelevant to me
I am either being elimmed here because town doesn’t do the mechanically smart thing and elim std
Or I am probably being conf town jailkept due to paranoia

So I literally do not care.
I am going to break the game open mechanically or be dead.

[MathBlade]

I suppose i could admit that towns chances do look pretty good considering Mafia should only have a goon and we have 2 town PR’s still alive.
But i don’t really like the idea of acting like the game is already won and nothing could possibly make us lose.

Oh no we could lose if people decide to not be mechanically smart and decide reads > facts in a game where mechanical deception is impossible.

[MathBlade]

I don’t think that is the best use of our JK from my POV.
If we lim STD and they flip green. Marcistar should use the JK on Math or someone else, so that if Marvi dies we get another confirmed town.

Why would you not want to be confirmed town?

Don’t need it.

Doesn’t matter

You should want it so scum can’t elim anyone

[MathBlade]

If you’re a VT you should want the block
The block should come within already claimed VTs
Marci announces her block within that pool to prevent blocking the PR by mistake

[MathBlade]

Elim StD see if we have a game or not
If we do then scum tried to kill std go look at why combine with PoE and yawn

[MathBlade]

when starting the day i thought scum would be save the dragons, because his instant "its marci" felt off.. felt like he knew he was rbed, and the most logical jump would be that i did it since i kept susing him. felt like he was subtly trying to push me for that.
i don't think it was a save, because i think if he wasnt scum he wouldve been kept alive so he could stay in the poe.
i dont think it was a babysitter save either because they prob wouldve been hinting for us to move away from this direction by now.

i think ive arrived to the point where

todays elim = either mathblade/save the dragons
i jailkeep the one who doesnt get elimmed ^
if we have a follower = innocentvillager/alisae is the best choice imo

as i really feel like norwegianboy, datisi, dwlee would be town here.

I suppose i could admit that towns chances do look pretty good considering Mafia should only have a goon and we have 2 town PR’s still alive.
But i don’t really like the idea of acting like the game is already won and nothing could possibly make us lose.

:shrug: i know theres still room for us to lose, which is why i og wanted to hold on a bit longer before claiming.

I agree with 90% of this. The actions are protown which is what is important.

The part I disagree with I will put in my notes PT for post game

[MathBlade]

i disagree with killing me

Then vote me and be jailed is your other option.

We are not doing a substandard elim.

By probability you are most likely scum here.

And if you aren’t scum then I get jailed become conf town then scum no killed or we know there is a babysitter and that babysitter protected town so we have two conf town or scum deliberately no killed which is ridiculous.

[MathBlade]

And if scum no kill after elimming me or StD then there’s still two conf town
Scum have to kill eventually lol

So it’s a big game of chicken

[MathBlade]

i only know hammer this game is over I think

Alisae is scum?

I don't exactly have anything to say.
its probably just std tbh which I think is surprising given
- he bussed and scum probably doesn't want to do that
- he hard defended me from a town!mathblade which I think could be weird given I was posting M&Ms but maybe I'm just falling for the guy's charm.

I think the question is how much sense does it make for std to actually be shot and I think there is some sense to it unless I am overthinking things, there's a lot of wine to sort through right now.

I think my impact on the game is now down to 0 due to how far ahead we are so I don't feel the need do anything.

Where I am at is either StD is scum or StD was shot at.
Given how little StD is trying except self survival it’s probably just StD or scum shot at him.
If the latter then we just have to look at reads and find out why.

If game is not over

I (or someone else if Marci changes her mind which I doubt) gets blocked and we keep the same amount of or gain a conf town or two.

Elimming outside of StD just isn’t smart play

[MathBlade]

honestly if i die today that's like
honestly fine
i mean i'm not scum but i also don't rly care and I can see people trying to make the case for it.
people voting me would be an event that would really interest me

I don’t think Alisae or Norway are scum but if we conf town around that PoE then if that happens to be the case it is but we should always aim towards confirming people

[MathBlade]

what if the team is marci george

I don’t see StD being shot here unless Marci is scum. Marci is locktown because jailkeeper.

[MathBlade]

Marci do you think it’s best to have as much info as possible today by continuing claims or should we let the claims stay as it is and elim in the current PoE?

It’s best to just win rather than info.
There is one scum left.

If we elim StD and he flips scum we win.
If not Marci jails someone and we go from there.

Why are you so against the mechanically smart and most likely play?

IV also doesn’t give us the most information either.

Wtf?

[MathBlade]

I think STD’s reaction to everything has been very townie though.
And he didn’t even attempt to push Marcistar before she claimed.

This is false

[MathBlade]

no i'm pretty fucking sure it's marci

…

STD should be the elim or I should be.

This is how a no kill happens.

Unless you can explain how a different elim shoots STD I don’t care

[MathBlade]

If you flip me or StD flips green then the other is jailed.

This tells us the most about the flip and the no kill of the game is not just over.

[MathBlade]

We can jailkeep IV tonight if this flips green

Nope nope bad idea

This gives scum the room to paranoid push me like they tried to today.

If StD is green we need to know before tomorrow so then we can look at day 2 with new eyes.

[MathBlade]

Game will hopefully end on STD lim but Marci just needs to pick IV or math to jailkeep tonight

Needs to be me.

No kill has to be explained.

Scum have to kill eventually.

Then they can either confirm me (an active player spitting mechanical truth who has been shaded from the word go)

Or they jail IV coincidence no kill and then I get miselimmed because paranoia.

I am the much better jail if StD is town or elim me jail StD those imho are the only two options.

Anywhere else does not work unless you explain the no kill

[MathBlade]

If no kill on IV jail we kill IV

You mean like today where there’s a no kill with a jail on StD and we aren’t seeming to elim StD?

That word is useless.

Furthermore no kill on X means we elim X means that we jail anyone. Jailing anyone else instead of me if std flips green doesn’t figure out that scum shot StD or intentionally no killed.

I should be the jail if std is green because then we learn what scum did.
Scum can’t fake a no kill tonight or they will likely lose to confs

So elim StD if game goes on I should be jailed is what we should do

[MathBlade]

GeorgeBailey (5): Datisi, Save The Dragons, Dwlee99, MathBlade, Alisae

Alisae is town, I think Dwlee and Datisi is town? So that leaves STD and Mathblade.

Norway thinks it’s between me and StD

We elim StD then Norway pushes me tomorrow.

Norway should not be against the plan to elim StD but conf me but is for some reason. Why?

[MathBlade]

Just because someone doesn’t agree with your ideas of perfect mechanical play doesn’t make them scum Math.
What an narrow-minded way of thinking.

I didn’t say it made you scum I am asking why you’re being suboptimal.

[MathBlade]

Norway thinks it’s between me and StD

No. Have you paid any attention?

I have.

You haven’t demonstrated why you townread either of us.
Just you don’t want to elim us.

Why don’t you want to likely win the game or know what happened to the scum kill?

[MathBlade]

Math are you not paying attention that I think STD needs death today?

I did.

It’s the jail anyone but me I disagree with.

[MathBlade]

The way I figure it is:

Elim std >> Game over who cares
Or Jail me >> Kill happens I am conf AND we learn scum shot StD or deliberately no killed

—- above this line is most likely —-

Or Jail me >> No kill happens and we are at two confirmed town with 5 non conf town alive. Same dilemma policy me then jail someone who didn’t want me conf like Norway.

Say kill happens this night.
Scum have to make a kill while someone is in jail.

Otherwise it’s two conf town vs scum in elo which scum lose handily.

[MathBlade]

okay couple questions making sure I’m not misunderstanding the sitch

ppl were claiming and then just stopped because we don’t want to out more info?? So Norway and dwlee are the only ones unclaimed? why did this half assed massclaim happen because we either should’ve not massclaimed at all or fully massclaimed? (Probably shouldn’t have massclaimed at all imo but ppl wanted it so idk?)

Math do you think it’s Basically autowin here? Can u just quite ur current strategy that basically wins or loses if X Y Z or true/

I think basically yeah.

We elim StD. Game likely ends because of Marci’s jail. Notice how his behavior has gone from trying to “whatever”.
If it doesn’t end we jail me to prove either A) Scum shot StD (most likely) or B) No killed or C) Scum no kill to deny that information publicly.

Option A or B will be proven true if I am jailed and a kill happens. This enables everyone to go back through day one and ask why. Marci + myself + (redacted) conf town.

If it’s option C then scum get less places they can kill and it’s a repeat of the same scenario.
Repeat by policying me or whoever Marci jails. Then scum have same dilemma and smaller PoE. They’ll be PoE’d to death. If we have a follower then follower will eventually get an inno whenever scum kills or might just get a guilty if Marci blocks intended scum victim.

Far as I am concerned it’s auto pilot.

My suggestion (in case I die) that if we have a follower and IF scum kill tonight then consider outing if you have an inno.

Jail target + who you follow (assuming they don’t kill) + yourself + Marci = four innos assuming all alive.
So keep this in mind.

Marci should announce who she jails.

Then it’s a matter of getting innos and shrinking the PoE where scum can’t win.

[MathBlade]

also it’s possible scum no killed last night without their strawman right so if that’s why std is getting all this flak idk if that by itself is a good reason given he has been townie?

It’s possible scum no killed or shot StD. It’s unlikely but possible. Alisae or Norway or Datisi are better nks.
The more probable answer is StD is scum.
By elimming StD and jailing me and if StD is not scum we prove scum shot StD or no killed.
A no kill is suicide if a follower exists due to confs so I am guessing if StD is town he was shot at but more likely StD scum.

[MathBlade]

Option A or B will be proven true if I am jailed and a kill happens. This enables everyone to go back through day one and ask why. Marci + myself + (redacted) conf town.

okay thanks, i still have a few questions

so marci jails you and scum kill marci, then instead of ur townpool listed above the townpool is you + follower + follower target?

what if we don't have a follower

what if marci jails the follower

if follower does exist and follower does out then what if scum kill follower then they can't get that inno

The worse case scenario is the PR is a babysitter.

I am claimed VT so if Marci jails me like suggested she can’t jail a PR.

If we have a babysitter then I suspect baby sitter will never claim until it has to possibly either save Marci or try to kill scum by guarding in the PoE.

Regardless we will have a minimum of two conf town alive tomorrow.

If scum kill Marci + Jail target (me) + other PR.

If scum kill Marci and other PR is follower then follower either has a guilty and they claim and we win or they have an inno and up to them if they claim but I think it’s advisable especially if Marci is alive.

[MathBlade]

Now there’s logic to be had in elimming StD and then
Babysitter guards Marci then scum have to guess (if PR is a babysitter) for follower
But numbers wise it’s better to potentially take out scum IMHO.
But argument can be made either way.

Follower should be in the PoE seeing if they see a kill or not.

[MathBlade]

hmm idk i don't really feel convinced that any of these scenarios are really autowin ? maybe im just fucking stupid sorry? i kind of feel like you're just saying "if X then Y then Z then A should do B and we have C conftown players in this scenario"

like even in a great scenario where we have follower, scum kills marci, then we have 3 conftowns (sure if follower hits scum we win but how likely is that), we still only have a 2/3 shot in winning in theory, unless u think scum is just spewed scum by associatives (idk if i rly believe that)

and i think the scenarios where babysitter exists are just worse, scum can try to kill marci without any real consequence, or they can gamble to hit babysitter/follower and kill marci as a bonus if babysitter heals marci

idk i agree we're in a great spot and we can get some conftowns but i think the autowin still feels a bit elusive now with all these contingencies, and im getting flashbacks to solo scum!Nor plowing through 7 townies (granted that was a closed setup without much info so def easier) - not that that has anything to do with his alignment this game just want ppl to be CAUTIOUS ig

It’s more a matter of the game will never be in scum’s hands again.

Worse case scenario is 2 conf town Marci dead and PR is babysitter. There will be 6 alive.
PoE will be 1/4

Assume miselim and conf Babysitter dies and takes a town in the PoE with them.

Then we have one conf town then 3 in the PoE. This is melo.

Scum shoot conf town.

This means elo is the three in the PoE not taken out by the babysitter. And that’s 100% worst case scenario. And by that point we will know scum shot STD or no killed as I will be conf town here.

I have to stretch and pile assumptions on to even get to elo though.

Assume Marci dead and follower exists

Then we have follower + JK target + follower target town. That’s three conf town with 6 alive.
Assume we mess up and elim a VT

Then scum kill follower to prevent more innos

We get to four alive with JK target and follower target alive and two in the PoE.

If a follower exists we’re on lock.

Babysitter we have a chance to win tonight and tomorrow if babysitter is ever killed.

I don’t see scum winning this.

[MathBlade]

It’s the A4 standard good-boy elimination™

And the thought of participating in that makes me puke.

But but if you rebel and not vote it then you’re not being the cool “rebel”. You realize that right? All the cool people are on StD

[MathBlade]

This is a lot of words for
“I don’t wanna believe what likely happened so here’s reasons”

If you’re right Datisi we sort that with knowledge rather than guesses

Any other wagon should be vetoed so we don’t put a PR.

We should elim std and jail me and call it a day.

[MathBlade]

Either way norwee is the best one to read me at the table but this game isn’t about reads anymore in fact it should just be over

This.

We should elim StD then if game continues look at it further given confs.

Anything else is suboptimal and risks outing the PR

[MathBlade]

Ok fine.
I look like an partypooper, i get it.

VOTE: STD

If this flips town Math will look dumb, and if it flips scum i will be the hero.
It’s P E R F E C T !

Clearly.

This is exactly that.

You got it you rebel you.

Whatever gets you to do the smart thing.

I don’t mind being the town idiot for a victory.

[MathBlade]

Marci jail me please.

I should go to town jail.

I must pay for my crimes of not being scum

[MathBlade]

math what do u think about my point on std’s D1 trajectory?

I think it’s fundamentally irrelevant.
A good scum player can have a good trajectory.
A bad town player can have a bad trajectory.

StD is most likely scum because of the no kill and if he isn’t we learn scum tried to shoot there or no killed. Any other elim is a hero elim.

[MathBlade]

math what do u think about my point on std’s D1 trajectory?

I R R E L E V A N T
I R R E L E V A N T
DOES NOT COMPUTE

- (Math probably)

This is accurate.

[MathBlade]

or we could win the game by limming IV today.

I agree but Math and Alisae were screaming at me.

Because this is suboptimal.
For two reasons:
If IV is scum IV would have to shoot George.
IV shooting George doesn’t make sense.

Any guess is strictly worse than a mechanical likely guilty.
No matter how sure you are.

[MathBlade]

If StD is town I will just be #sheepSomeone tomorrow

#stubbornForCause
#comeVoteStD
#marciIsJailingMe
#mathIsAnnoyingButMightBeRight

[MathBlade]

#turnMafiaIntoTwitter

[MathBlade]

Maybe we could lim in the VT claims and jailkeep STD again?

No.
Scum don’t know if it’s a babysitter or follower.

Lock confs only works if jailkeeper is on someone new.
Jailkeeper on StD again is a bad idea then scum no kill and day is repeated.

We should elim StD then if follower exists we just win.
Scum are scared a follower exists so they don’t wanna elim StD.

It’s not about being right. It’s about ensuring we no matter what eliminate scum.

[MathBlade]

Rejailing StD gives us no new invests and scum keep same PoE.

Retailing StD is trash play. If y’all don’t elim StD and do the suboptimal play dont make it worse by rejailing StD

[MathBlade]

It’s up to Marci though who she jails but whoever she does she should announce in case she gets shot.

[MathBlade]

Jailkeeper on StD again is a bad idea then scum no kill and day is repeated.

you say that like getting an extra misyeet from two no-kills is a bad thing

It is in an StD town world because scum just kill Marci.

We need to be smart and elim StD and just wait on Marci to come back.

And if y’all elim IV and IV flips town I am going to reserve the biggest amount of told you sos.

[MathBlade]

Can I please have an StD elim for my scum day? *begging eyes*

[MathBlade]

…Elim std please

[MathBlade]

HI YALL SORRY FOR THE WAIT
(the weather knocked out my wifi and it could only get fixed today was kinda expecting to be force replaced.. kinda dont know if its stable tho but we pushin )
HAPPY SCUMDAY MATHBLADE BTWBTW

IVE HAD TIME TO THINK

i think its best to
VOTE: save the dragons
although i'll feel kinda bad if he flips town.. but this sorta thing is a needed sacrifice if hes town and doesnt get elimmed here, he'll be saved for a future miselim (that future one will 100% go thru, since look at this astounding evidence).
its best to do this now while we have our safety nets still.

i don't feel like save the dragons would've been attacked, but i can see the world where scum no killed.
but i feel like no killing is most possible from mathblade

so im fine with jailing mathblade tonight <3

i still townread norwegianboy and dwlee so like... why are yall panicking and vote switching??? yall confuse me

[MathBlade]

Seems we are good to go.

[MathBlade]

I did good mechanics yay!

Gg all

[MathBlade]

YOYOYOOOOO

IM SORRY GUYS I WAS NOT EXPECTING THIS TO HAPPEN WITH MY WIFI I ACTUALLY FEEL SO BAD AA

It’s okay my availability plummeted. Good thing you didn’t submit the block lol