Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Something_Smart]

I’ve never eaten bat. They seem like a poor culinary choice, tbh.

Ozzy Osbourne would disagree.

[Something_Smart]

didnt see that one coming

The kill? Interesting, I did.

I'd like to not share my reads this game if possible. Sadly I replaced into a low-content slot so it may not be. But then again people usually don't read me off of my reads so maybe it wouldn't help to share them.

[Something_Smart]

Fair enough.

[Something_Smart]

Why has my slot received 0 pressure thus far?

[Something_Smart]

I have read, yes, but I don't recall that. Can you link to some questions he's avoided?

[Something_Smart]

Anyone happen to know why Wisdom was so sure worst is town? (or why anyone believes that would help)

Why did you vote him while wanting to know this and not knowing it?

[Something_Smart]

What makes you think I wanted to know that then?

Well it wouldn't make any sense to want to know it

now

but not then, when it actually mattered.

[Something_Smart]

Previously I thought Wisdom was scum so I wasn't as interested as to why he townread worst (i figured worst was town)

Wouldn't that have helped you read him though?

[Something_Smart]

So in a way it wraps back around to seeming uninformed because if i were informed Wisdom were the 8-ball I damn sure wouldn't ask Wisdom a question then just go fuck it and kill him

Bingle seems like the type to make that kind of calculated decision as scum.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I find it confusing and irritating that you are asking why Wisdom townread tw after helping to ensure that Wisdom isn't alive to explain it, and I wanted to understand why.

[Something_Smart]

To be fair I'm not the one who killed Wisdom and wisdom is also apparently notorious for not explaining reads

Were you not okay with him being hammered when you put him to E-1?

[Something_Smart]

It's almost like I didn't have that question while Wisdom was alive

I know, I got that, so I was asking why

that

was the case. I'm not trying to imply a read.

[Something_Smart]

Make your point SS

I already did in 761.

[Something_Smart]

Given context, have you come to conclusions?

Not really? It seems like he's mostly just missed/ignored questions, not dodged them.

[Something_Smart]

Confusing and irritating as in I was intentionally ignoring Wisdom in order to elim him easier or whatever reason, or simply confusing and irritating with no further conclusion

The latter.

[Something_Smart]

Sure I mean I'm not that confused by it anymore, it seems like you just decided you'd read Wisdom and didn't care to keep thinking about it, which I guess is a thing that can happen. But I'm still irritated.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, I mean, he should answer the questions that were posed to him.

[Something_Smart]

:X

[Something_Smart]

Definitely you are the 8-ball and not the counterwagon to town who also lolhammered the 8-ball.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, that's kinda my point. You shouldn't be voting him.

[Something_Smart]

Why the different approach to this game?

...Because scum get massively rewarded for guessing people's reads?

[Something_Smart]

All the more reason for me not to be the one leading it.

If a town 8-ball flips it doesn't matter who led it...

[Something_Smart]

Why's that? You think scum were picking to predict you specifically?

[Something_Smart]

It's Xylo anyway, no?

Only if we execute the 8-ball today.

[Something_Smart]

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes. Also it's probably not xylo.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I'm one of only 4 town players in the game. If we execute town today that goes down to 1 in 3; as long as I'm not the person being executed, which seems pretty unlikely at the moment, I'm going to have significant influence over who is.

I did assume that there would be more consensus going into today. I'm kinda surprised given the way that the last few days played out that there isn't, honestly. Perhaps I'm just out of touch with the game.

[Something_Smart]

Well, my assumption is that we are going to play in a way that makes us unlikely to hit the 8-ball, since we should be doing this anyway.

[Something_Smart]

It is not what I plan on doing. In a game this small, I'm not sure that's true.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think the 8-ball today is necessarily town?

[Something_Smart]

I do think there is a good reason to withhold your reads temporarily. For the whole phase, no though.

What's the point though if you don't maintain it into the night? That's when it matters.

[Something_Smart]

To see what everyone else pushes first. That way, you might be able to get a read on the 8-ball.

That's true I guess, though you can (and should) reevaluate your reads in light of what other people are pushing even if you don't hide them initially.

[Something_Smart]

Well I mean, I think it's SS + imagine/worst. That much I know I think

Why on earth do I decide this is the most effective way to play as scum

[Something_Smart]

I think having relatively little concern for the 8-ball, as well as not having to share reads, is really conducive to a scum wincon especially when you can use the guise of not wanting scum to game your reads

I don't have little concern for the 8-ball? I'm never going to support killing Bingle, regardless of how I feel about him.

[Something_Smart]

I wish Wisdom were here to explain to me why worst is locktown

Why would scum be pushing Alisae out of the gate on D2?

[Something_Smart]

Helping us elim scum and ideally avoid hitting the 8-ball seems like a better way to deny scum the chance to WIFOM you than not sharing your reads.

I mean, in theory I can do both. If that turns out to not be true, well I'll decide which is more important, but I have to imagine it's the former.

[Something_Smart]

If we eliminate inside worst/Bingle we have to be very sure because it seems to me we'll be running the risk of hitting the town 8-ball.

House/Ali is town (see my earlier posts on that) -- and if you're unconvinced uhhhhhh ill probably investigate more

and I'm town

That leavesssssss SS

You're missing somebody...

[Something_Smart]

well it was more or less a post directed at imagine assuming imagine is town

Fair enough. But if it's directed at imagine, you can't really expect "I'm town" to be that convincing to him.

[Something_Smart]

Rising rapidly.

[Something_Smart]

Can I take this to mean you believe my push of you is suspicious and 8-ball motivated?

Imaginality's is, but same idea.

[Something_Smart]

imaginalitys push on... not you?

I mean he just listed me as his bottom read and also unlikely to be the 8-ball, so like...

[Something_Smart]

he voted worst tho

Not when I posted that...

[Something_Smart]

So anyway I should take it that you think one or two of imagine/me is pushing for 8!ball you, yeah?

It's possible yeah.

And at this point it probably doesn't hurt to reveal my reads. tw > MT > House > Bingle > imaginality, a decent amount of space between all five.

Imaginality seemed like the most likely person to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball, as well as being Wisdom's primary suspect. I think you and ducky are town because your slots pushed Alisae out of the gate on D2, which is clearly not something scum were aiming for. (The day ended with Alisae at 4 so the natural course of day 2 would have been to just kill him. But scum clearly weren't planning for that to happen.) The gap between Bingle and House is larger than it was at day start, mostly because you townread House and I trust you. Bingle seems to be playing a wholly unimpressive game and he's doing pretty much what I would expect scum to do. Plus he, you know, lolhammered the 8-ball for no good reason.

[Something_Smart]

No he didn't?

Like, yes, he said you were unlikely to be the 8 ball but he also listed both me and duck as more scummy than you.

Oh I definitely read this wrong then.

Because ironically despite Something_Smart being lower than Bingle and the worst in my individual reads

Though I mean, I don't really know how else you were supposed to read it.

[Something_Smart]

Why would they not be?

Because he wasn't the 8-ball and it was entirely plausible that he just got quicklimmed?

[Something_Smart]

His reads list was scummiest at the top with percentages, but I can see the confusion there.

The post we're talking about was before he posted that.

[Something_Smart]

scum gets to later fall back on this exact argument if they flip Wis.

But they aren't doing that. I would take it a lot less seriously if I weren't the first person to bring it up.

[Something_Smart]

Scum team is MT & the worst.

Calling it.

oh good, my two townreads

[Something_Smart]

But scum wanting the day to end on Wisdom doesn't mean scum were planning to start the day pushing him.

The point is not this. The point is that an Alisae quicklim was a real possibility, because he had the support to die on D1 and didn't quite get there. And pushing Alisae on D2 isn't going to be sus, because so many people already suspected him. So if they wanted to push him anyway, why not make him 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

Like… if the scum team thinks Alihouse is an easy mislim who isn’t suspicious to push and will likely go through, why doesn’t *any* scum team pick Alihouse as the 8ball.

Because he's scum/because they want to keep him around for later/because they weren't positioned well to push him, I guess?

[Something_Smart]

Who would make imagine the 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

Wasn't he fairly townread yesterday though?

[Something_Smart]

I simultaneously dont think SS is ever 8-ball but am dreading the flip heavily since I really don't feel confident at all

how about you just flip scum instead and then it doesn't matter if they're the 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

also if I replace into this position as scum I probably make myself the 8-ball and tell my partner to not bus me, and then when I inevitably flip everyone will go oh he must have been bussed.

unless my partner is in a good enough spot to just force through a mis-exe, but I'm not sure if anyone here besides maybe MT would qualify for that.

[Something_Smart]

huh? I don't get what you're asking

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, presumably I would want my partner to be pushing that person pretty hard.

[Something_Smart]

While I defend them, in all likelihood.

[Something_Smart]

Would you join House on the worst MT?
I can guarantee there's more chance of limming scum.

Why are you defending me while voting me

[Something_Smart]

I'm not voting imaginality

Today? Or ever?

[Something_Smart]

So I don't care if imagine is town or not right now I care about you

Under what circumstances do I replace in and play like this?

[Something_Smart]

Refusing to share reads initially but actually having extremely strong ones, defending tw and scumreading imaginality but not actually trying to kill him, refusing to compromise or change my reads at all during the course of the day

[Something_Smart]

I feel like putting on a facade of reads without actually acting on them in any way is kind of scummy, yeah.

...but like, you've played with me before, right?

[Something_Smart]

Imaginality isn't at E-1; it makes no difference whether I vote him now or not, except that it might allow a quickhammer.

[Something_Smart]

yup, because I think my execution may not be inevitable

I only feel that way as one alignment, that's for damn sure.

[Something_Smart]

It's not just like voting though, you have no presence or attempt to sway, no sense of urgency.

...but like, you've played with me before, right?

[Something_Smart]

If anything, that would help you towards null but certainly not town since this is how you tend to play always.

well I mean I listed a bunch of things that aren't that that seem like they'd just be putting up a neon "kill me!" sign as scum.

which may be, but my argument is kinda that if I'm scum I'm very likely to be the 8-ball playing this way. because I'm playing in a way that I would expect to get me killed. and why do I play that way when I could play a different way? do you not think that I would have received less pressure if I hadn't done some of the things I mentioned?

[Something_Smart]

So at best, NAI?

yes, the specific thing that you called scummy is NAI. the other things I mentioned are not

[Something_Smart]

I mean gambling the game is inevitable. Why not do it sooner?

[Something_Smart]

why are you playing in a way that you expect to get killed for as any alignment??

Because I have some degree of faith in the people here to be able to discern my alignment at a better than random rate.

[Something_Smart]

all you learn is whether someone is the 8-ball.

Disagree. But I obviously can't elaborate.

[Something_Smart]

and the third I still find scummy even if you're aware it's scummy.

it's demonstrably not though, unless I'm scum with tw. Because if I switched to tw, then wouldn't I have a lot lower chance of dying?

[Something_Smart]

The first could be a "I have a secret plan/strategy" type thing, mixed in with WIFOM of "if im scum I know this look bad so i don't do it"

The plan wasn't secret though. And I don't know what you mean by that "type of thing" anyway, it's not like scum pretend to have a secret plan for towncred when they really don't.

As for the WIFOM, well how's that working out for me?

[Something_Smart]

Right, and that raises the question of what was our plan to win today? 8-ball imagine and hope that people just magically reverse their reads on him?

[Something_Smart]

What are you gaining from hiding reads, not forcing any will on the game, not reevaluting, etc. Those are all things that are much more beneficial to scum, no?

The reads hiding discussion already happened. It's very beneficial to town if someone can go the whole day without sharing their reads.

As for the second one, it wouldn't work. Trust me, I spent years of my life on the site under the mistaken belief that it did.

As for the third one, it's pro-town for me to represent my reads accurate (if I choose to represent them). If they don't change, why would I pretend they did?

[Something_Smart]

8-ball Bingle and literally just have me have an incorrect read?

And then do my best to convince everyone that Bingle is 8-ball. What a genius plan.

[Something_Smart]

I think he's probably scum with SS in that case

Finally, something we agree on.

[Something_Smart]

If Bingle is scum it doesn't exactly matter does it?

I mean, that was in reference to a hypothetical where the team was me/tw. But sure it still matters, if we kill a scum 8-ball we remain in potentially-mylo.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see why you don't hope for 1 town to have a misread and get an easy win

I agree, that is probably what we would do, so why didn't we do it?

[Something_Smart]

You were laying back and saying "no dont do it" a little but as you are aware it wouldn't have had an effect, then you could quick hammer

...it did have an effect, though. tw unvoted Bingle literally the post after I pointed it out.

[Something_Smart]

If my partner's imagine, why am I so resistant to killing tw?

[Something_Smart]

Also if imagine is my partner then the 8-ball is

definitely

me, so you should go for him first.

This isn't even WIFOM, it's just obvious.

[Something_Smart]

Why is the game blowing up

now

?????

I finally found something to talk about

[Something_Smart]

I'm sure you'd vote tw over yourself

No, why the hell would I do that? That's just a gamethrow if he's town.

[Something_Smart]

Because if tw flips town then I definitely die the next day, and I townread him?

[Something_Smart]

I'm calling it right now, if I vote TW then SS will quickhammer immediately since he knows he is next

Only one way to find out!

[Something_Smart]

No, but I sure as hell tell my buddy to hammer me.

[Something_Smart]

It is true from my end at least.

But I mean I can put down a vote if you can give an actual reason for why it will help.

[Something_Smart]

It's already obvious, lol.

What exactly am I trying to accomplish right now if I'm scum with tw?

[Something_Smart]

I know as well as the next guy that when the two leading wagons won't vote each other, it means they're scum.

[Something_Smart]

If ducky flips scum, who is his partner?

Someone not named Morning Tweet. I don't have a particular person in mind.

I did think that your grandstanding was above average likelihood to be scum if tw was scum, but I don't think D2 makes a lot of sense with that team.

[Something_Smart]

YoU FoRgOt To UsE SaRcAsM TyPe.

Not sarcasm. That's what it usually means.

[Something_Smart]

you're obviously not scum

This is a hard pill to swallow, but if you're really deadset then I'll take your word on it.

[Something_Smart]

Without taking that into account, I would think House/imagine would be the second most likely team.

I'm really not understanding tw's angle on D1 if he's scum with House, as much as I want to say that House would make sense with tw given today.

[Something_Smart]

Wait is House scum trolling us rn?

I mean House's scum angle in antagonizing me is pretty evident. He can set up to chain me -> tw, with an off-chance to tilt me to make that job even easier. Projecting overconfidence frees him from having to do pesky reevaluating.

[Something_Smart]

SS I'm going to vote worst and you're either going to quickhammer or not, you ready

Sure. But I wish you hadn't telegraphed so much. Scum-me would be way more inclined to WIFOM now.

[Something_Smart]

This is not a vote for the worst.

[Something_Smart]

Not sure if sarcastic, but I genuinely am. Sorry this is what it took to find my wim, but it was.

[Something_Smart]

Oh hi imagine. Sorry to dip right when you get here but I gotta go to sleep

[Something_Smart]

I have to imagine that a Bingle/imagine team makes Bingle the 8-ball today.

[Something_Smart]

Idk, you're feeling like resigned scum to me.

How so?

[Something_Smart]

I wish we had killed SS or anyone not named ducky yesterday, i miss him

Right??

[Something_Smart]

Definitely gonna have to reread these pages when I'm not on mobile and can give it more attention.

I can also respond to whatever you want, but I won't do everything because I don't want to shit up the thread with quote stripes.

My reasoning on ducky was really just:
- Sheeping Wisdom (I didn't say this because anyone else can do this just as easily as me, if they cared)
- He pushed Alisae hard on D2-- like I said, my default mindset after the failed Alisae flashwagon would have been that he would quickly get wagoned again. I really do think that scum wouldn't 8-ball Wisdom and then play into this.
- He unvoted Alisae on D1 when he very well could have been the 8-ball, and then turned around and pushed Alisae when he wasn't 8-ball.

Sadly I don't think I touched much on #3, but #2 is really the big one.

[Something_Smart]

I don't get 2 as a reason to townread duck at all. No one pushed Wisdom at daybreak D2 (other than Ali), and in fact ducky was one of the first people to switch to Wisdom.

The point isn't that ducky pushed away from Wisdom more than anyone else, it's that he pushed toward Alisae who could have just been insta-executed given the amount of people who wanted to kill him the day before.

And do you have any particular reason why Ali was likely the 8ball D1?

None, other than that he's a reasonably easy-to-execute person and also nearly died D1.

[Something_Smart]

In fact, at this point I know that either Alisae was scum and being bussed, or town and being voted by both scum, both indicating a pretty high chance of 8-ballship.

Though of course it would be circular to use that as a reason to townread tw.

[Something_Smart]

Who did you want dead yesterday, SS?

Imaginality.

[Something_Smart]

Is your read any deeper than this?

No, other than that PoE put him at a baseline of 67% and he was highly unlikely to be the 8-ball.

[Something_Smart]

You all realize that I was repeatedly being asked to explain a comment that was made before imaginality clarified his reads, right?

As soon as he made that post I read it, understood it correctly, and took it into account. But people were asking me about my thought process in an earlier post, so I explained what I thought at the time.

[Something_Smart]

If the team is Bingle/imaginality the 8-ball is probably Bingle imo.

If it's not, then it's whichever of them is scum, probably.

[Something_Smart]

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I will echo imaginality here in that the conclusion is obviously right, but the logic is at least partially wrong. By the time imaginality made his reads, I understood them, but I was still explaining why I thought what I did at the time. I realize now that I didn't make that especially clear in my posts.

[Something_Smart]

I initially took it to mean that, although the 8-ball is normally someone who's highly scumread, I am his top scumread and unlikely to be the 8-ball, which makes me the best target.

I don't know if I've ever heard someone use "lower" to mean "townier" before. I have seen readlists organized that way, but they're very rare.

[Something_Smart]

It's pretty good, from what I recall. But that was a long time ago.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: ali

I don’t really trust this sudden shift to Wis, makes me worried he’s an 8 ball, tbh.

what is this post

like actually what is it

[Something_Smart]

If Ali isn't scum I think it's 2 of {Wisdom, Mom, Bingle}.

Rule of 3 hMMMMMMM

[Something_Smart]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

[Something_Smart]

On the other hand it feels so suspect to just be like "yup my reads on replacing in were exactly right, neato" especially since I always stress how garbage my upon-replacement reads are.

So whatever, I don't think I can be objective here, the best I can do is get relevant things out in the open for MT to look at. Scum-MT has certainly got the game locked away at this point, so I probably will end up voting whoever she does.

[Something_Smart]

Eh. Fuckit. Maybe literally anyone will give my case the time of day tomorrow.

VOTE: Wisdom

This was just a deliberate scumclaim wasn't it.

It's like my hammer in Radio Buzz.

[Something_Smart]

Like I know Bingle and I know that he would do something like that. Because if he gets executed the next day then it goes right to theoretical mylo if scum can guess the execution target.

[Something_Smart]

And if that's true, and I'm his partner, then I sure as hell don't push the angle of "Bingle is 8-ball so we should leave him alone".

[Something_Smart]

Does anyone want to talk about how Bingle asked Wisdom a question, then hammered before getting an answer? That seemed (especially in hindsight with the 8-ball flip) scummy to me.

Whoa, look who comes out of the woodwork pushing Bingle on D3 after not having done so on the previous days?

(This one's actually not confbias because I didn't remember that imaginality did this when I made the above posts.)

[Something_Smart]

Yeah uh

I'm hopelessly confbiased at this point but my guess firmly goes to Bingle/imagine.

[Something_Smart]

I'm still not sure, but right now I lean towards the idea you're partners.

Vote townie fos buddy

[Something_Smart]

I think Bingle immediately asking House to explain his "it's not imaginality" comment indicates that that team probably makes Bingle the 8-ball.

So imaginality is probably the right target here. House/Bingle is... well not exactly impossible, but House would sure be creating a headache he doesn't need to.

[Something_Smart]

Taly, House, imagineality could have been predicted with relative ease.

I guess. Obviously I wasn't there but it does seem like imagine wouldn't have been as easy to guess as the others, especially since the big alternative is Ali/House who was imagine's other scumread.

[Something_Smart]

You're like the fourth person this game to point that out lmfao

I know. I didn't feel like pointing it out earlier because people already had, but now I think it's worth bringing back to the light.

[Something_Smart]

I have to imagine that Bingle's hammer beats it out for that prize, but it's definitely up there.

[Something_Smart]

My perception is that I've been doing a reasonably good job at revealing my alignment through dynamic interactions and thoughts, whereas imaginality has played very uptight and rigid in a way that's usually not hard for scum.

Is the difficulty that you can see my play as easily coming from scum, or that you see imaginality's play as being hard to fake?

[Something_Smart]

You have!! Correct reads!! From your PoV!! And you do next to nothing with them!!

And I know that's your playstyle!

It's more than just my playstyle, it's my personality :X

It's also learned helplessness. There's no reason to spend effort beating my reasons into people if they're just going to disagree with the reasons and then ignore me and then I'd be derailing the thread if I kept pressing it. People are talking as if I didn't give my big reasons for townreading tw-- but I did. It was the whole bit about how scum wouldn't push Alisae SOD2. It was just widely disagreed-with, and then forgotten.

[Something_Smart]

Something I just noticed, I made a mistake in my response to this. I wasn't assuming Bingle was town. I was assuming Bingle was 8-ball. Does SS!scum try to shut down Bingle's wagon..? Imagine mentions in this post that he preferred Bingle.

For what it's worth, I think the only world where me/Bingle makes any sense is if I have zero faith in my abilities upon replacing in and 8-ball myself D3. That explains why I shield Bingle behind WIFOM and also why I don't push tw. (I'd want myself to go down first, have my flip implicate tw, and then 8-ball him to win the next day.)

I think in that world I probably don't make the sequence starting with 1250, which is pretty blatantly motivated by self-preservation.

[Something_Smart]

Hiraki and the worst began D2 voting for Alisae. However, scum was banking on people thinking that "Ali is too obvious we can't kill them scum might have 8-balled them". Scum wanted to see Ali/Taly/possibly imagine vote Wisdom. So therefore it's odd for scum to try and start traction on Ali immediately at the start of the day. Do I get this right?

Yes, but I think even more than that, scum just weren't interested in an Ali wagon. Because if they were, going for one seems like the cleanest way to get an 8-ball off without looking sus for pushing it (because the wagon had so much support).

Or perhaps more accurately, they didn't expect a big Ali wagon to pop up at the start of the day. If scum came out the gate voting him, I'd think they would do that because they would expect the wagon to get big rapidly.

[Something_Smart]

Oh come on do you seriously think I would give away my entire master plan like that completely unprompted

I would be shitting bricks posting that if that had

actually

been my plan and it fell through

[Something_Smart]

2. Today I'm not keeping House as an option whereas SS is.

I would imagine you think this works in your favor, but it doesn't. Your wincon is for me to die before you. Mine, if scum, would be the reverse. House is unlikely to be a viable mislim from a me/Bingle team perspective, since we'd have to convince either you or MT, neither of whom are especially forthcoming. So there's no advantage to it, and potential disadvantage.

[Something_Smart]

Revealing it now costs you nothing.

Maybe true, maybe not, but how would I know as scum? How would I know that MT wouldn't go back and realize how much sense it made?

For what it's worth, I have deliberately done something kinda like what you're describing, where I make a plan as scum that banks on X, then I push against X and hope it happens anyway. (My learned helplessness works to my advantage in this case.) But I wouldn't then explicitly point out "look, here's what my big plan probably was, and see how I pushed against it!" because that would ruin any towncred I could expect from it.

[Something_Smart]

You don't seem like someone who shits bricks under pressure as scum. You were rational like this and nearly won for scum even after Gamma and Kitty had been caught in Owner's Market Blitz.

Well, that was kind of a special case, because the logic used to push me was genuinely asinine pretty much across the board, and all my arguments were basically legitimate.

But, you are right that I don't let it show. Of course I wouldn't, because I get way more stressed under pressure as scum than as town, so showing it would make it obvious. But trust me, it's there.

[Something_Smart]

In fact I'm sure enough that House is town and SS is scum trying to keep House open for a potential mislim tomorrow that I'm going to 1v1 this right now.

Wait, so what exactly do you think my plan is?

[Something_Smart]

Why would I ever try to win by getting you to vote House? Why would me keeping House in the execution pool make you more inclined to vote him, when you know either he's scum or I am?

[Something_Smart]

Because it would be more likely I'd reconsider him than that I'd reconsider MT.

Why would I care about you reconsidering at all, why wouldn't I just try to kill

you

[Something_Smart]

I don't mean NK you, I mean execute you. That is very self-evidently my game plan, regardless of my alignment.

[Something_Smart]

Right because it wouldn't look suspicious at all if I was like "so I think imaginality is probably scum, I've had him paired with Bingle since I replaced in, buuuut I think House could also be scum if you're willing to consider that, imaginality "

[Something_Smart]

No reason to wait til today unless you're caught scum putting in more effort as you get worried you and Bingle are being cornered.

Why would this be asymmetric with respect to my alignment? If this is a pure 1v1 with Bingle being caught scum, I would be equally afraid of losing as either alignment.

Plus, it's entirely silly to say that there's no reason for me to do this as town. If nothing else, just because I didn't feel like doing it until now.

[Something_Smart]

What leads to any of these conclusions?

Well I mean the second one is self-evident-- if you're scum and 8-balled yourself, and we executed you yesterday, your team would win if you could predict the mis-exe today.

The first one, I mean I know you're a calculating player, and my perception seems to be that you don't consider yourself an exceptionally strong scum player (Perfect Masquerade comes to mind), and so I can see you deciding that making sure one NK doesn't slip away and unlocking a second if you are ever executed is worth your life. I would probably have done the same, if I was scum in your position there (though it would depend on who my partner was). In fact I recently did a very similar thing in Radio Buzz, where I made a scumclaim hammer to prevent the town from coordinating their vig shots. So that's the kind of vibe I got from your hammer-- especially since I framed it in an almost identical way (I know this is bad but I'm fed up that people aren't listening to me).

[Something_Smart]

Which does actually lead me to another point-- would Bingle really do that if his partner was Momrangal? Is he really going to count on an AFK slot to deepwolf?

[Something_Smart]

I think SS trying to keep House open for a mislim tomorrow is kind of a reach. I think it'd make more sense to just focus on eliminating the other in imagine/ss

Yes, this, and it's perfectly natural to have doubts on House as town (he is a pretty strong scum player), so there's no reason for him to immediately jump to the conclusion that it must be nefarious (unless that was already where he wanted to end up, of course).

Like I think him voting me today is perfectly reasonable from any perspective, but him picking

that specific thing

as the thing that pushed him over the edge to voting me is... well, I mean, it's evidently fake to me. Hopefully to you too.

[Something_Smart]

Are you sure that Bingle killing himself off is worth the meager amount of towncred Mom might get from that? Mom still has to survive ~2 eliminations afterwards.

In an ideal case, whoever his partner is only has to survive one elimination, if they can guess it. Regardless of which of us is Bingle's partner, I would think that he was hoping to go down on D3 to make that easier for them.

Butyeah nobody is gonna give Mom towncred for staying off the wagon when she was literally afk

[Something_Smart]

Regardless of which of us is Bingle's partner, I would think that he was hoping to go down on D3 to make that easier for them.

This is phrased a bit confusingly, but I'm assuming you get what I mean... in the hypothetical world of Bingle/S_S, that would probably be the plan, just as it probably was in the (hopefully) real world of Bingle/imagine.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like the best play for Bingle/afkMom in that situation is to just pray for an all-town 8-ball wagon, which should put them in a really good spot as the wagon members tear each other apart the next day.

[Something_Smart]

Looks like MT/House would have been fine to hammer around here (also like that team already won long ago), so I think I'm fine to do this now.

VOTE: imaginality

[Something_Smart]

If we hammertest both of you on me (for example) it proves that either I am scum, or it's Bingle/imagine. If we hammertest both of you on both of us, then the only possible teams are me/Bingle, imagine/Bingle, and me/imagine.

But, you don't really need Bingle's help for that; you can hammertest each other.

[Something_Smart]

The point of a hammertest is that you unvote right after the person confirms they aren't hammering...

[Something_Smart]

And, if Bingle is really scum here, he has no incentive to play along, because he has no chance of becoming un-caught.

[Something_Smart]

But like, you just have to pick a time when he doesn't seem to be around and go with it. There's no other way, besides not hammer testing.

[Something_Smart]

MT it seems like you know House is throwing... can you please help convince him to unvote?

[Something_Smart]

If he wants to throw he throws I am not getting worked up over it a second time

Please?

We can force him to unvote.

[Something_Smart]

By both voting him.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, only if Bingle is lurking to hammer literally right now. The point is, he wouldn't be able to keep his vote on, since if it really is me/Bingle he would lose. We'd unvote as soon as he does.

[Something_Smart]

Thank you.

[Something_Smart]

House, MT is basically 100% town from your perspective, and she says that your argument doesn't make any sense.

With that in mind, will you please hear me out?

[Something_Smart]

I'm never voting outside of you & Bingle.

Even if MT votes imaginality and Bingle doesn't hammer?

[Something_Smart]

Basically, what he's saying is that I was ignoring the possibility of Bingle popping up out of nowhere to hammer in the middle of you hammertesting him, or vice versa.

Which is a thing that's possible. And is probably a reason why not to hammertest! But in general, people ignore these things when hammertesting, and I don't think I've ever seen a hammertest go south because this happened.

Meanwhile, to hammertest any other way would depend on Bingle's cooperation, which he has no reason to give if he's scum.

[Something_Smart]

Not.
Voting.
Imaginality.

So you think me/MT is more likely than Bingle/imaginality?

[Something_Smart]

8 ball is either on Bingle or imaginality.

Bingle is sitting back WAITING TO DIE. Hello?

Not gonna be responsible for either one flipping.

It doesn't help us to flip the non-8-ball today...

[Something_Smart]

Not.
Voting.
Tweetie.

But if MT votes imaginality and nobody hammers, then either he's scum or she is...

[Something_Smart]

MT please

I cannot react to situations like this as scum. I just can't. I would be losing my shit right now.

House is either reaction testing or he's just decided to stop using his brain. Even though I'm biased, I think the reasoning he is using is highly unlikely to be better than random. So if you can override him and force through an imaginality exe (and you can, no matter what he says, or he's ACTUALLY throwing), and you think you have better than random odds of being correct, you should do so.

I do not think anyone would be mad at you for being wrong when House is being like this.

[Something_Smart]

Or imaginality isn't 8-ball.

Huh? If imaginality is town, then scum win if he gets hammered. 8-ball doesn't matter.

[Something_Smart]

Like if I vote imaginality, and MT votes imaginality, and Bingle doesn't hammer, then the team can't be me/Bingle. If I'm scum it would have to be with MT. So if she does that, then your theory would be proven wrong, so what would you do?

[Something_Smart]

I am not losing my shit. I am looking for the best path to a victory.

[Something_Smart]

S_S is literally forwarding hypotheticals WHERE BINGLE IS THE DECIDING VOTE, here.

MT is the deciding vote. Whoever she votes is decided as the execution, even if it's not a hammer, because she is universally townread.

[Something_Smart]

What the actual hell House

[Something_Smart]

Yet S_S is comfortable setting up a scenario where OUTED SCUM IS THE DECIDING VOTE IN A GAME ENDING ELIMINATION.

Yes genius, I am comfortable with someone I know is scum getting voted!

[Something_Smart]

Sigh.

[Something_Smart]

MT, do you agree that you are more fit to choose between me/imaginality than House is at this point?

If so, you should be alive when the decision is made.

[Something_Smart]

You can vote imagine today. That will make a me/Bingle team impossible and I HOPE that would then knock some sense into House.

[Something_Smart]

But my point is, if you're 75% confident, and you believe that House's logic is so bad that he's not going to be right more than 50% of the time (maybe 55% generously), then the best odds come if you force his hand rather than the other way around.

That make sense?

[Something_Smart]

But if he is right by dumb luck I'm never going to hear the end of it

No, that's not true. Because even if I were scum here and I won, I would truthfully explain after the game that his read was bullshit and he got lucky. And I mean there's nothing to prevent him from not believing that and puffing up his ego, but I seriously doubt that anyone else would really think badly of you for it.

[Something_Smart]

SS go ahead just vote Bingle and kill House during the night I literally never see myself voting you over imagine

Please stop trying to make this into a WIFOM game.

[Something_Smart]

I may be wrong about this. But I don't feel that anyone would go "oh House caught S_S and you ignored him", if I were scum and won. They might have had their own reasons to suspect me, and be annoyed you didn't see them, but that could happen either way.

Also Wisdom caught imaginality and you ignored him

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorry that this happened at all, and I'm especially sorry that it happened at a bad time RL-wise.

You can do whatever you'd like. I certainly won't be mad

at you

if we end up losing, but it will have been your choice to let House push you around. And I feel like imaginality, if he were town, would look at this shitshow and recognize that you tried your best with what was available.

But anyway... I'm mostly just spewing rhetoric at this point. I'll stop, unless you feel like getting a pep talk from the guy you're afraid of losing to would actually help.

[Something_Smart]

But I will say that if my posts today sound like they're reasonable and natural from town (and I hope they do, because they were), that's MILES above what I'd be able to do as scum in 90%+ of situations. I would have to be in an incredibly well-crafted mindset, and this has happened, but it's pretty rare. My scumgame isn't this good. Even if you don't think imaginality's scumgame is great, there's definitely nothing he did that you could say this about.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I was mostly joking about Wisdom.

But, if she is worried about fearing judgement from other people, Wisdom's probably more likely to be understanding of an imaginality vote.

[Something_Smart]

Bingle's online now, or was not too long ago anyway.

If you vote imaginality, he has to lurk out till deadline. But there should be enough time that it will be evident that he could have hammered.

[Something_Smart]

I had you as possible scum since long before that, though

[Something_Smart]

But you couldn't sell it, so you abandoned it.

I never abandoned it? My read on you basically didn't change until today.

[Something_Smart]

Well House/Bingle is obviously impossible lol

[Something_Smart]

I don't see how anyone can be mechanically town in this game (well, before recent wagon shenannies)

She means because of recent votes.

My position on you was always, if one of imaginality/Bingle isn't scum, then you're the next most likely to be. This was basically PoE, plus I thought you and Alisae were talented enough scum players to play the way your slot did as scum.

I was always considering the possibility that you were scum. That's just doing my due diligence as a town player.

[Something_Smart]

Dragon is on FIRE today

^

[Something_Smart]

Well, I wouldn't say that I know you very well. (Though, now I know you have good taste in music, at least )

[Something_Smart]

In fact the only game I can recall playing with you I misread you

really

bad. It was quite embarrassing.

[Something_Smart]

In fact the only game I can recall playing with you I misread you

really

bad. It was quite embarrassing.

(Aside from PYP, where you basically got confirmed as town.)

[Something_Smart]

Fair enough, I guess.

Were you baiting by saying I was definitely scum? Or were you just willing to trust MT with whatever she went with?

[Something_Smart]

I am still town, by the way. I absolutely do not twilight troll as scum.

[Something_Smart]

SS, give me a chance to convince you before throwing the game away please.

I mean I guess? It better be damn good though.

[Something_Smart]

I won't blame you for making the wrong choice, SS, just for not giving me the opportunity to show you the right one.

I mean, that's fair. I'll let you say your piece. But as of now I'm hammering you, and given your play this game it would take a lot to change that.

[Something_Smart]

Why was I conftown?

[Something_Smart]

But if you look at your own arguments for why it wasn't SS/Bingle yesterday, you'll see that they all apply to imagine/Bingle too.

Uh, no they don't? Most of them have to do with the Wisdom wagon.

[Something_Smart]

Meh I mean

Whichever of you is town threw, Bingle on D2, House on D4. I was actually not that far from changing my mind rereading House's posts yesterday because holy shit are they terrible.

At least I'm in a headspace where I won't feel bad no matter what I do. But I probably would feel worse going against what MT clearly wanted.

Bingle, why did imaginality bus Alisae to E-1 and leave him there for a significant length of time?

[Something_Smart]

I think it would be an insult to your scumgame to say you wouldn't.

[Something_Smart]

The last time I played against scum-you, you killed me (a known mason) when I was hard townreading you, and proceeded to counterclaim my partner for basically no reason.

Excuse me for not putting much faith in Occam's Razor around you.

[Something_Smart]

You can't simultaneously think I'm shit AND next level scum, so you're just fucking around.

I don't think you're bad at scum? Where did I say that?

If you're town I think you played pretty shit these last few days. If you're scum it was just business.

[Something_Smart]

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

bruh he literally disproved your point and you just agreed with him

[Something_Smart]

House, can you clarify why you voted imaginality after saying that you were never going to?

[Something_Smart]

But that disproves your argument that killing me was safer than killing MT. If you felt very likely to win coming into the day, then killing MT couldn't very well have been risky.

[Something_Smart]

I felt like it.

Did you think he was scum?