Micro 1067: Is There a Doctor in the House? - Game over!

[Tabibitos]

Sup, let's get this game

rolling

guys, after aĺl doesn't the way we get our alignments feel kinda

GACHA

?

I haven't double confirmed with Norwe yet but I think I (Shirou) will be signing my posts as Aether, and Norwe will sign as Lumine

-Aether

VOTE: GrandpaMo

[Tabibitos]

I have already an early idea about how we could try to optimally play the setup perhaps but not only I'm in the phone atm so it's a pain to write long posts, as much as I want to do lol strategies on a semi-bastard games, I don't know much about the player list here and their opinion on trying to play a wonky setup optimally versus enjoying the wonkiness of it. I would need everyone cooperation on the mech plan so before we argue how good of a mech plan it is, does anyone oppose the very idea of trying to minimize the wonky aka "fun" (be it good or bad) nature of the setup?

[Tabibitos]

Sup, let's get this game

rolling

guys, after aĺl doesn't the way we get our alignments feel kinda

GACHA

?

I haven't double confirmed with Norwe yet but I think I (Shirou) will be signing my posts as Aether, and Norwe will sign as Lumine

-Aether

VOTE: GrandpaMo

question, do hydras talk to each other? lol

like are they allowed to speak ogi to each other? or do they have a chat in game like masons etc

We got a hydra PT but I was about to confirm with the mod if we can talk in discord as well. So let's do it.

@mod can we as a hydra talk in discord about the game as well?

[Tabibitos]

Shirou wtf. Why did you make our layout eye-blindingly white.
Also, we can likely just talk in discord if the mod has access to our discussion.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

I have already an early idea about how we could try to optimally play the setup perhaps but not only I'm in the phone atm so it's a pain to write long posts, as much as I want to do lol strategies on a semi-bastard games, I don't know much about the player list here and their opinion on trying to play a wonky setup optimally versus enjoying the wonkiness of it. I would need everyone cooperation on the mech plan so before we argue how good of a mech plan it is, does anyone oppose the very idea of trying to minimize the wonky aka "fun" (be it good or bad) nature of the setup?

OMG I WAS JUST GOING TO THE ROLE LIST AND THINKING "hmm isn't there a meta to this setup?" like every doc would need to protect every other doc and that would eventually resolve to us finding scum i think or atleast get us close

I haven't full run that simulation yet in my head but I think it may not work because it's probably gonna be easy for scum to incriminate someone if we do it like that. That gave me an idea of making groups of 3 or so that target each other though, but I'm not sure it's better than my other idea yet and we are gonna have only 8 people to do groups of 3 in N1.

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

Shirou wtf. Why did you make our layout eye-blindingly white.
Also, we can likely just talk in discord if the mod has access to our discussion.

- Lumine

Sorry my modem broke and I'm using mobile. Its really hard to use the black theme on phone. Please put up with me for a bit

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

mech-wise:
i’m all for planning out night actions. if we can find a way to get info out of the wonk, then we should take it.
i’ve been considering the idea of nurse claiming d1/maybe d2. they’re not any more powerful than the doctors, and it would be ridiculous for scum to cc it now. basically gives us an innocent child and helps us plan night actions if we want to do that.

Yeah my plan involves the nurse eventually claiming as well. Usually I think that theoretically it's better for that kind of claim to happen day 2, but we absolutely cannot allow ourselves to miseliminate the nurse. Therefore any scum about to get hammered can claim nurse and out the real Nurse or to get a free pass for D1.

Normally a D1 free pass also isn't a big problem but on this setup we aren't guaranteed to have more than 2 eliminations so there may not be enough time to sort a CC properly. Not to mention how we want to kill one scum asap so that our jailkeeper basically turns into an almost better version of a cop (it can confirm townies at that point).

Concluding, I believe there's very little reason for the Nurse to not claim on early D1 on practice. On theory it looks good to do that in D2 but there's many underlying risks to that. I don't want the nurse to claim yet though because I don't think I have thought enough about this setup.

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

how does our jk become a cop if they don’t know they’re the jk?

By dividing ourselves in two groups. We don't need to know who is the jailkeeper, we would just need to get a no NK night with one scum remaining. Even if they do no night kill to falsely incriminate someone, it's not as good as it may look in the paper because we can gain extra eliminations if they keep no night killing.

Jailkeeper is a very powerful role on one scum standing.

-Aether

Sigh sorry I will try not to open this game on my main account. I get confused.

[Tabibitos]

Does that not work because the no kill could be from a doctor saving someone or the night kill could be a doctor killing someone?

That's the purpose of the two groups, we would know who was the potential protect and it would always be the Nurse that is conftown vs a suspect.

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

no nk could also happen as the result of a successful heal by reliable, weak, or cpr doc though. i admittedly haven’t thought enough about the setup myself, but i think the point of it is that it’s hard to discern the cause of whatever happens at night. i’m just not understanding how a no-nk will give us that much info.

Maybe when I explain the group thing it will be easier to understand my thought process

[Tabibitos]

how does our jk become a cop if they don’t know they’re the jk?

By dividing ourselves in two groups. We don't need to know who is the jailkeeper, we would just need to get a no NK night with one scum remaining. Even if they do no night kill to falsely incriminate someone, it's not as good as it may look in the paper because we can gain extra eliminations if they keep no night killing.

Jailkeeper is a very powerful role on one scum standing.

-Aether

yessss steal my intellectual idea!!! jk but that was my thought process before. we can also have everyone do no night action that or do circular save

Hmm no offense but I don't think I stealer anyone idea. Dividing us on 2 groups of 4 was always the plan I was hinting on, from what I understood your idea was for docs to target each other or for to form groups 5that target each other. My plan is two groups that alternate on protecting the nurse and targeting a common suspect.

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

Does that not work because the no kill could be from a doctor saving someone or the night kill could be a doctor killing someone?

That's the purpose of the two groups, we would know who was the potential protect and it would always be the Nurse that is conftown vs a suspect.

-Aether

can you explain how this works/what it would look like? you’ve lost me.

Yeah I will eventually, it's just hard to do so in the phone but I will try. Please bear with me.

-Aether

P-edit: yes we do eliminate normally

[Tabibitos]

I dislike this plan.

Wait until I fully explain to dismiss it if you're town please.

[Tabibitos]

This early game discussion topic is very out of my field so i'm just gonna leave the mech strategizing to Aether and focus on my own solving and just being adorable.


- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Where is NorwegianBoy? I want to talk to them.

I'm Norwegianboy. Shirou is Aether.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Oh okay, I will call you Lumine. I haven't played with Aether before. Did you two roll Town?

The abyss has not taken a hold over our heart. We are good nara.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

I wish my PC was working for this. (I will assume the Nurse to be a "she" just to make it easier to type.)

I nickname this plan "

Follow the Nurse

":

Basically my plan is to have Nurse claim on early Day 1, get confirmed town status, and then separate ourselves in two groups of four, A (protecting) and B (Investigating). The Nurse should always be a member and leader of Group B given she cant protect herself. These groups are fixed in their roles but it may be a good idea to swap their members with each other every day/night except the Nurse herself and

maybe

someone that everyone agrees to bet the

entire game

on being town (if you know someone is town on a confirmation that there's scum here, it gets easier to nail scum).

Group A will always target the Nurse and the other group will target a common suspect that we'll elect using the heal tag, in case of a tie between heal votes let's leave it to the Nurse to decide between the tied, and I will talk to my partner to see if he could keep track of the heal votes with me.

By N1 We wiĺl have every doctor power alive given the Nurse inherits the first dead one if we miseliminate, therefore some of the most unbalanced groups that I can imagine to protect are (Quack or CPR, Naive, 2 Goons), and in that scenario the Nurse dies if the group targets it at N1 even without scum intervention, but that would also likely sinalize two scum in the group so it would still be positive?

I believe most other groups are balanced on N1 and assure the Nurse either won't die even if scum targets her, or may only die if scum targets her and the group protecting is exactly along the lines of (Quack, Naive, Any Doctor, Goon). It would still confirm there's scum in the protecting group though, not to mention help to nail who is the quack/naive doctor.

The other group would as said be targeting a suspect, but now that I'm writing this I realize that we should choose someone inside this group to be targeted. The reason is that I realized that if the JK is in this group, and they target someone protecting the Nurse, it may block someone ability causing imbalance on the amount of protection/killing power and accidentally killing the Nurse without giving us much info.

I am still mulling over if there is an universally good way to proceed with this strategy if or when the Nurse dies. However as long as the Nurse is alive (or a confirmed town PR) I believe this plan do protect her, help us to organize night actions, make it easier to understand night results and I also think it guarantees we will not lose the Nurse without gaining info on the scum.

Obs: The group A should always have 4 members on it to ensure the abilities will always balance itself and not kill the Nurse without scum intervention. If we nail the quack doctor though, and kill one scum, we can reduce that requirement to 3 people as long as the quack doctor isn't on it.

Note 1: I don't have a better suggestion on how to organize the groups without confusion aside from the Nurse, the confirmed town, drafting the groups herself.

Note 2: There's many ways this game can develop and there may be a point where protecting the Nurse isn't as good as protecting let's say, a confirmed JK or Quack (functionally a Vigilante). If we can mechanically confirm a town PR, it may be a good idea to have them trade places with the Nurse.

Note 3: This plan goes by the philosophy of minimizing risk and maximizing reward, it's possible to have get lucky and have better night results by going into the game more randomly, just as it is possible for town to ruin itself at that scenario. This just seems like a consistent plan to me.

Note 4: Maybe I can do better than this if I think more about it, or maybe there's a deep flaw on my plan somewhere. I came with this within only 2 hours so not much revision done yet.

[Tabibitos]

The above wallpost is Aether (Shirou). Forgot to sign again sorry.

[Tabibitos]

I have 2/5 chance to have kill and i want abuse this chance for full extent.

You could be on group B then, you only need to target the same as what that groups decides. The plan doesn't completely stop you from trying out your "power"

[Tabibitos]

How you think about one player targeting someone else to see if they are killing role?

Because that's what i personally want to do.

If I was scum I would confuse the town using that but again, I don't know how mechanically good the scum team here is. Your strategy seems exploitable on the right conditions but I don't know if scum would know how to do it

[Tabibitos]

how does our jk become a cop if they don’t know they’re the jk?

By dividing ourselves in two groups. We don't need to know who is the jailkeeper, we would just need to get a no NK night with one scum remaining. Even if they do no night kill to falsely incriminate someone, it's not as good as it may look in the paper because we can gain extra eliminations if they keep no night killing.

Jailkeeper is a very powerful role on one scum standing.

-Aether

yessss steal my intellectual idea!!! jk but that was my thought process before. we can also have everyone do no night action that or do circular save

Hmm no offense but I don't think I stealer anyone idea. Dividing us on 2 groups of 4 was always the plan I was hinting on, from what I understood your idea was for docs to target each other or for to form groups 5that target each other. My plan is two groups that alternate on protecting the nurse and targeting a common suspect.

-Aether

There are too many killing doctors to make targeting the nurse with half the playerlist a good idea IMO

I believe you're mistaken. Pick any 3 doctors or more and see for yourself that their abilities together targeting a single person never kill them and most of the time protects them against a NK.

-Aether

[Tabibitos]

Has anyone played this set before?

According to the wiki this has 9 town wins and 3 scum wins, there must be something good in one of those previous games that we can aim to replicate

The last set ran without any grand scheme, and they almost lost because night actions were chaotic. They also asked themselves that.

I don't want to seem like I'm bragging, but there's been multiple games that I've helped town to come up with an unusual but effective mech strategy, like for example in TM 2021 Black Flag, S_S Beetle Micro and my most recent completed game. If my plan has a flaw I would like you to explain it harder than dismiss without seriously considering. I spent my afternoon typing this.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

how does our jk become a cop if they don’t know they’re the jk?

By dividing ourselves in two groups. We don't need to know who is the jailkeeper, we would just need to get a no NK night with one scum remaining. Even if they do no night kill to falsely incriminate someone, it's not as good as it may look in the paper because we can gain extra eliminations if they keep no night killing.

Jailkeeper is a very powerful role on one scum standing.

-Aether

yessss steal my intellectual idea!!! jk but that was my thought process before. we can also have everyone do no night action that or do circular save

Hmm no offense but I don't think I stealer anyone idea. Dividing us on 2 groups of 4 was always the plan I was hinting on, from what I understood your idea was for docs to target each other or for to form groups 5that target each other. My plan is two groups that alternate on protecting the nurse and targeting a common suspect.

-Aether

There are too many killing doctors to make targeting the nurse with half the playerlist a good idea IMO

I believe you're mistaken. Pick any 3 doctors or more and see for yourself that their abilities together targeting a single person never kill them and most of the time protects them against a NK.

-Aether

I guess it depends on night action order, right?

Like if doctor/cpr doctor/quack all target someone does the cpr doctor see that no one is being killed and acts as a killing power, except the doctor's saving power lingers?

Because if it works like that I agree with you

Well I did assume it works but that's probably a good question to ask the mod.

I'm pissed at myself for messing up so much in playing as a hydra....sorry you all.

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

Hmm...in that case the CPR actually messes so much with targeting as a group, I am actually heartbroken I wasted my afternoon on this. When you want the doctor CRP to do one thing in a group of actions it will probably do the opposite. Maybe it's really better to for everyone to target someone different...

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

No actually, I think everyone targetting someone different can lead to such bad results that maybe putting 6 people on the group A to guarantee Nurse is protected even with CPR shenanigans and Nurse plus one person each target someone different may still be optimal, it just sounds way less fun than the original idea.

With this new one we could get info on at least one player role though.

[Tabibitos]

Hmm...no wait, maybe we can do with five on group A, which is interesting. Back to the mental workshop.

[Tabibitos]

Just assume any mech posts are mine tbh
@Aether

[Tabibitos]

Nah, it needs to be six in group A then to guarantee Nurse is protected. With five we can know there's confirmed scum in the group but knowing there's one scum in 5 people on a micro isn't very useful. With six at least we would know that both scum are in the group and have one extra conftown.

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

I'm considering if the Nurse dies in the above. If Nurse dies with 6 in a group targeting her, the group less player is confirmed town.

[Tabibitos]

I suppose if we consider no eliminating we can do some fun plans but I'm not sure people would want that

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

Personally I think no elimination and trying to mostly win this game with convulated night actions sounds more fun but I would probably be in the minority on that.

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

No actually, I think everyone targetting someone different can lead to such bad results that maybe putting 6 people on the group A to guarantee Nurse is protected even with CPR shenanigans and Nurse plus one person each target someone different may still be optimal, it just sounds way less fun than the original idea.

With this new one we could get info on at least one player role though.

why cant we set up fake mason pairs and have those pairs target each other.

I guess we could? Protecting the Nurse is expensive so I'm ok if we want to do something else. I think Nurse should still claim though

Hmm...in that case the CPR actually messes so much with targeting as a group, I am actually heartbroken I wasted my afternoon on this. When you want the doctor CRP to do one thing in a group of actions it will probably do the opposite. Maybe it's really better to for everyone to target someone different...

@Aether

it was gonna mess up anyways because of quack doctor iirc

I don't see how quack is the problem really, it's mostly the CPR being unpredictable so it's hard to guarantee something will always work on a given way with him around.

[Tabibitos]

i'm down for a no-lim plan if it helps us win.
currently doing my own math/mechsolving but idk how long that'll take me.

that's not what aether said lol.

they said that no lim would lead us to needing to solve based on the complex order of night actions versuses not having a discrete strategy. so it won't "really help us"

this is in contradiction of aether previously discussed in terms saying that we should mechsolve and be more instrinctic.

No it is what I meant. Maybe I chose poor words, English isn't my first language. What I meant is that we maybe we want to no eliminate and have a mech plan on the first days, get info and then consider eliminating/voting

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

I'm tired for today, I will go rest, good luck to us on making a consistent plan here

@Aether

P-edit: I think no limming give us more time to figure out the roles. For example, if we can figure out who is the quack or CPR, we can do my old plan consistently by guaranteeing that there will always be only one killing role on the protecting group.

My plan still works if we figure who is either the CPR or Quack. (and then we protect the Quack/CPR)

[Tabibitos]

Actually, NURSE PLEASE DONT CLAIM before we figure out what we will be doing. If we no eliminate for example, there may or not be any reason for Nurse to claim Day 1

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

Please do not exhaust my poor Aether-kun. They need some time to think and rest. Mech-talk can continue then. And if you get bored waiting i’m always here for memes and fun.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

I think the scummiest thing about Grandpa to me was his push on me, it felt like a bit of a wild and slightly forced interpretation of my posts looking for a "Gotcha" moment to pile upon. I dont feel much towards his attempts on mech talk, maybe it's even very very slightly townish for the apparent excitement.

Overall If I was forced to choose someone to be scum right now, I guess grandpa could be a candidate but I wouldn't seriously vote him atm, so:

UNVOTE:

There's actually a good reason for my unvoting as well but it's a secret for now, maybe ask me later

@Aether

[Tabibitos]

The last time I talked with Norwe about grandpa, he had a different take on him though, but I hadn't thought much about grandpa either and didn't put forth this argument. Just saying we won't always agree on reads.

It's also curious to me that the RVS top wagon ended up pushed as a suspect...coincidence?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Actually we are both connected to each other by telepathy so we will always agree on reads. If by some chance we do not agree on reads it causes unbalance in the hive mind so we will both commit seppuku and physical violence to reinstall our harmonious state of being.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

For last I will admit I'm a bit tired of mech right now, it took a lot of my energy for this game to type all that wallpost in mobile. If you guys don't want to do a V2 version of my old plan (the change is group A is made of 6 people and I believe that solves the previous issue and guarantees the Nurse doesn't die) I think I will stop talking about mech for a bit and just try to get some reads. It's too much effort to think of something else AND do a new wall AND convince everyone to go along with it.

I will be accepting or discussing other people suggestions about what we could do thouh, I am still down for a mech plan, just not sure I want it to come from me again at the moment. I will think about grandpa, just not now, too tired.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

I meant think about grandpa mech suggestions in the above

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ahh i'm sorry but i'm really not good at mech-talk. I'm gonna ask Aether to explain to me this plan in a way i understand later so i can keep up LOL.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Sorry not enough time or energy for this yet (about the mech stuff), I am fine doing what you guys agree on if it comes to that

As for reads, I thought about it and maybe Enchant is town for wanting to try targetting someone on their own early, it can e a prerogative to dismiss mech but it's probably town excited for potentially being a vig? Vigging is exciting after all.

Grandpa feels more likely town than not by saying stuff like "I already know the Nurse" on a setup where the Nurse may end up claiming anyway (otherwise it could be rolefishing). Not too sure about grandpa but I don't feel very good about anyone else so I'm gonna like his slot for now.

Elements mech solving is interesting, don't know what to think of that, did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Elements mech solving is interesting, don't know what to think of that, did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

im sorry but this feels like a useless question to ask because first, cant u just look up their meta

and 2nd u act like ur gonna follow up with elements because u have been gone for most the game and i missed u and like ugh idk what i do without u

First I don't have unlimited time so it would be nice if he can point me out to it if it exists, I know he may lie but 8f I catch him in a lie isn't that a good thing as well?

Second I am asking because this is

widly

different than what I remember Elements playing and am just curious if he did so much mech solving anywhere else at all.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

my grandfather could't be weeb

Your grandfather was the first weeb. Travelling to Japan since the 15th century, in kahoot with Oda Nobunaga himself as one of the great founders of the modern Japanese state.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

I am gonna probably be around to effort his weekend

I don't like the current "plan"? It's basically my old plan and we found flaws on it right? Why are we doing it anyway if even elements math said it wasn't too good?

[Tabibitos]

Ah Aether in the above. I am also liking Gimli so far

[Tabibitos]

vander looks way better than freedom nd enchat fwiw

i think we should investigate it like this since enchant is also someone in interest.

im gonna group a town core with one common suspect in each group so i will group my bottom scumreads .

group a - scoloisis, elements, grandpa, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, enchant

group a target enchant
group b target galron

how does everyone think of this? IF we do choose to elim freeedom during the day.

I'm on board

WHY are you on board when you initially had a problem with it at first. Nothing changed, your switch doesn't make sense to me.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

How ridiculous is it if I say I may already have a solve for this game?

I may be pretty wrong though, not too confident on it. I need to do house chores on Thursday but Friday not I technically should be here, and hopefully with my PC.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

In fact this plan is worse than my original plan because it doesn't even protect the conftown among us.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

How ridiculous is it if I say I may already have a solve for this game?

I may be pretty wrong though, not too confident on it. I need to do house chores on Thursday but Friday not I technically should be here, and hopefully with my PC.

- Aether

Friday night*

[Tabibitos]

Never mind I don't think I have a complete solve yet but I think I have decent reads maybe? Gonna drop them and some explaining on weekend hopefully

[Tabibitos]

Never mind I don't think I have a complete solve yet but I think I have decent reads maybe? Gonna drop them and some explaining on weekend hopefully

can u give basic 1 sentence explanation?

Of what? My reads?

I wanted to re read and mull over more before saying it in the thread but basically atm I think you and Gimli are town, you sound too excited to "vibe" with people contributing to the game and Gimli sounds like a classical newish townie trying to solve the game by picking the weirdest posts (weird =/= scummy)

Enchant more likely town than not for the vigging thing and I will try to make it sound less of a dumb reason later but it just strikes me as the sort of thing mafia wouldn't think about faking?

I have one scum lean though and two slots I am trying to decipher but 3 town reads in a micro D1 is a lot to me already?

I think I can get scum by PoE wih some luck

Very basic explanation of where I am

- aether

[Tabibitos]

Me and Aether have been discussing the game a bit more seriously and will continue tommorow after sleeping. Please do not hammer any wagon until we are finished with our work.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Because my playstyle is only dropping a read to immediately try to kill them and swing the momentum of the game. I am not dropping it right now and not being able to explain it in detail until Friday night.

Saying who I scum read without a convincing case behind doesn't help mich on actually killing the scum
- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Maybe Vander but I think scoliosis has been very towny.

The Hydra has two heads but neither is scumhunting

I can assure you that we are, we just haven't shared anything in thread yet.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Personally i think it's much better to solve when not being too involved with the thread because that makes sure there is less bias on our own part.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Maybe Vander but I think scoliosis has been very towny.

The Hydra has two heads but neither is scumhunting

I can assure you that we are, we just haven't shared anything in thread yet.

- Lumine

Then, what are your reads rn?

What. Are you even reading? We didn't explain in detail yet but we already gave 3 town read, and said we will explain the scum read tomorroa. There's people posting way more than us but with less than that.

If you think we're scum for this, what about them?

Your own ISO is rather devoid of reads or solving as I see it as well, you agreed on Vars being scummy and elena being town? I don't see much else other than an attempt to follow what someone said again when it comes to this read of you on me.

Here's a hot take: if you're town why don't you talk about an original read or explanation for a read on someone rather than just parroting what others say?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

My bad on the typo of your name Elems, autocorrect...

[Tabibitos]

I'm here...without PC but gonna try my best anyway.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Chocolate cake, coke and blanket...I wish there was music but YouTube is annoying on mobile not letting me open another app

[Tabibitos]

59% battery, is it enough? Maybe.

Gonna just sign with "-A" for tonight to save my time/fingers.

-A (Aether)

[Tabibitos]

Also happy birthday Elems! Hope you get better soon as well...

Unhappily though, I have issues/doubts about your alignment here...

-A

[Tabibitos]

...wait I had an idea...

[Tabibitos]

I've a

keyboard

on my hands.

I'm

unleashed

.

[Tabibitos]

Ah, above is also me Aether, Lumine is not around yet

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

TBH Aether, what are Lumine's reads?

When we talked she mostly had similar takes to mine like Grandpa being "bubbly" (as she described) in a towny way, and we also agreed on suspecting Vars.

It wasn't quite clear if Vars was her

biggest

suspect, but for me it is.

Now that I'm here and with a lovely keyboard on my hands, I can proclaim and will explain why I believe Vars is the most likely slot to be scum in this game for me and why I think either Freedom or Elements is his partner.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ah also I think Galron can be scum but he has barely played the game and I don't have a magic crystal ball to find out the alignments of people not posting much (it's not only about the quantity of posts, it's about the length and content on them as well). So he's an outside probability which I would be happy if we can kill/investigate by night actions or something.

[Tabibitos]

Hmm, 10 minute commercial breaks though, I need to redeem Genshin livestream codes and daily welking. Oh how I dearly missed hoarding primogems...

You guys should try getting addicted to earning primogems as well. Feels great.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

vander looks way better than freedom nd enchat fwiw

i think we should investigate it like this since enchant is also someone in interest.

im gonna group a town core with one common suspect in each group so i will group my bottom scumreads .

group a - scoloisis, elements, grandpa, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, enchant

group a target enchant
group b target galron

how does everyone think of this? IF we do choose to elim freeedom during the day.

I'm on board

WHY are you on board when you initially had a problem with it at first. Nothing changed, your switch doesn't make sense to me.

- Aether

You still haven't replied to this yet Vanders.

[Tabibitos]

Man...

there's 5 days yet, and I'm doing it all tonight

what's up with the hurry, can't a tabibito collect his primogems in peace before going to text war?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Take a look at her ISO, what do you see Freedom?

[Tabibitos]

Can we talk a bit about Vanders this game, i feel like all he's been doing is agreeing with everyone else. Like when he claimed our plan was so great and he townread us and also when he loved Grandpamos scum case. I don't really see him doing much other than react to what everyone else is doing.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

It's like chaotic evil cheerleader.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Freedom how long have you been playing mafia? I thought you might be a newb at first but you said you were an alt earlier.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Take a look at her ISO, what do you see Freedom?

I see a lot of plans for N1.
But if that's the reeason for Elements being scum, why not Enchant?

For a couple of reasons.

Elements has double the amount of posts that Enchant has (Elements has 84 posts, Enchant has 42), but also, there's a significant difference in the length of those posts.

I won't count how many words each has posted in this game but I would expect Elements to have posted around 3 times or

more

the amount of words that Enchant has. So let's get this straight, Elements has double the posts and let's kindly consider that their posts round up to around triple the length of Enchant's.

We could theoretically guess from all this data, that Elements probably has typed more than at least 6 times what Enchant did, and look on what I found in Enchant's humble ISO:

Oh god 8 days of this staling please no

who said we are stalling

like i told u . tabibtos will conf and thats it. if u read the convos u would know whats going on with them.

i am just saying we have 8 days doesnt mean we will be using 8 days.

im not scumreading u yet but its kinda scummy to rush the process especially if the process includes trying to find a mechanical way to play the game and hopefully get mafia out as much as possible . are you scared or something?

VOTE: GrandpaMo

how dare you

I never rushed, i suggested circular because it's fastest way possible to everyone learn actions, you pushing narrative i rushing day overall is kinda bad (but fairly i want to rush... but i didn't yet!)

Can someone tell me what targeting scum reads achieves?

I changing my mind, i target Elements.

He's trying to find scum in his own way, but now, this is the best of what I found in Elements's ISO about sorting other players alignment:

^ town

Talking 6x times as much as Enchant's he doesn't seem to have commented or expressed any suspicious of other players aside from voting people that were already being voted by others, without any explanation or backup on the push as well.

I get being excited about mech but the fact is that Elements has talked a lot, she's the second highest poster in the game, but she has expressed less interest or words on others alignments (dare I say, particularly not interested on discussing who is scum and why) than

even

Enchant that is kinda just doing his own thing.

But...there's more of the bad stuff on Elems which deserves a post of its own.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ok maybe on second thought talking 6 times more than Enchant is a bit of an exaggeration. Three times as much though at the very least.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Aether is the most convinced about that read, and it essentially boils down to the fact that Elements is putting in effort into the game but both of us don't really see how it's town motivated.
Take the long calculations for example, they make an conclusion about the plan but don't follow up on it themselves and just resort to mostly sheeping others anyways. Which begs the question of why they did it in the first place.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Hm, I was about to do a part 2 on Elems expanding on why I feel like her mech posts are performative but I'll try to keep it brief instead.

I appreciate a lot if she's town the effort she has put into calculating the suggestions...but after the conclusion she had about my old plan not being too great, she just went along with it anyway because people apparently wished so? It's the same point I made about Vanders early.

I believe if she's so involved in solving mech, she could give some suggestions on what to do herself, but she hasn't done so, she has only calculated

others

suggestions. It can be a coincidence but together with posts like those:

I've spent 3 hours counting possible lose scenarios from circular targeting
I've gone over 2 of the 4 possible scum distributions and gotten that in 142 scenarios we just lose.

This is however out of a possible 17280. So about 0.8%.
Of the other 12960 I imagine there's a similar percentage chance.
So just for the sake of me doing more maths and to be overly cautious let's say there's a 1% chance we lose if we circular target if we flip town today.

It just feels like she's trying to

show us

that she's doing a lot of

effort

, but effort unhappily

isn't necessarily alignment indicative

. It's a bit hard for me to imagine why she would spend so much time calculating exact percentages near or below 1% when she could try to use that time to figure out who is scum or talk to people on an attempt to decipher their alignments.

Her work is useful but I simply feel she's overdoing it, and I also feel she may coincidentally gotten into this spiral of calculating stuff once you guys began to town read her for it. Feels like her objective is to get town cred basically, she did all that math for my old plan but didn't feel like as if she cared too much about the final results of that math she herself calculated.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong because it does suck to be wrong on someone that is putting so much effort into this game regardless of alignment.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Both of us don't really trust Freedom either, though i have him more as null while Aether thinks they could easily just be scum.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Now I'm gonna write about Vanders.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

First, let's see Vander's posting pattern:

Spoiler: Voting Pattern

i'll UNVOTE: , mine was just rvs.
why do you want to vote them though?

VOTE: GrandpaMo

Overanalyze-ey, just kind of weird level of focus for what the post was

This is the

third

vote on the wagon, but he declared intent to vote when it was already on E-2, so it almost was the

fourth

. However he later does:

VOTE: scoliosis

Grandpa starting sounding town pretty much exactly when you started scumreading them

This vote is actually kinda fine, but then:

VOTE: Freedom

third vote if I'm counting right

From this point forward (switching from Scolio to Freedom wagon), it doesn't feel like he cares too much about Scoliosis anymore, and he never seemed to try to engage with any his votes too much (which we assume are his suspects?). It didn't feel like he was trying to get answers from them...except on those related to people suspecting him? Then he kinda cares to engage the person in question and seeks answers:

Spoiler: Engagement Pattern

VOTE: scandersvamp

This guy's votes are really bad.

Real chance I'm 0 for 2 on them atm but I'm not sure how you could think a freedom vote is "really bad"

I also have not been convinced by Freedom's lack of response to his wagon and putting what is essentially a semi-bandwagony OMGUS vote on me.

Did you miss the part where I tried to?
I got called OMGUS for doing that.

But I was the only person who said you were OMGUSing, right? Am I forgetting someone?
So why would that be an issue if the heat you're getting is from the person you're pushing on?


Also, you didn't really push me, you just agreed with someone else's case on me and then voted me.

He engaged Scoliosis, but only when Scolio voted on him, not when he was apparently suspicious of Scoliosis being scum. Vanders feels basically reactive to me, he doesn't pressure his supposed suspects too much and 2 out of the 3 of his votes have just been the biggest wagons of the game at that point. He also apparently cares more about talking to people voting or suspecting him for some reason.

But what I find the most weird in his ISO is this progression:

There are too many killing doctors to make targeting the nurse with half the playerlist a good idea IMO

I can't think of anything much better than circular targeting

if we can protect the nurse

, it's even more important for it to be outed d1, as the inherited ability will be the only confirmed ability and increases our n2 impact immensely. not outing the nurse can get it killed at night.

I don't think there's a possible way to do this, I tried earlier but it didn't seem to work

, the cpr doctor just messes things up quite a bit

He apparently

doesn't like

targeting the idea of trying to

protect

the Nurse (a guaranteed townie basically) too much because it can

kill "it"

, and he discuss with me the CPR doctor issue which was indeed worrisome and flawed, but then...:

Alternatively we can do the targeting scumreads plan if we get a scum flip and do the targeting townreads plan if we get a town flip

He kinda seems to suddenly be ok with targeting/protecting town reads with the two groups of four. Which is rather similar to the plan he disliked/criticized. It doesn't matter that the Nurse is *guaranteed* to be town compared to the town reads, I feel that if Vanders was serious about genuinely disliking to risk killing the Nurse he would also feel inclined to not like the idea of targeting town reads in a setup with "

too many killing doctors

" as he said himself.

It feels as if his critic of the old plan, although valid, was just performative to show he's worried about mech solving as well, but in the end he still seem to have gone along with the current plan that goes against his opinion that trying to protect rather than kill is too risky here.

It's just not a consistent mindset, it ends up kinda contradicting itself and I think it's because it was just for show early/trying to get town cred.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

About Freedom...honestly I don't know what I could say that Grandpa already didn't, but basically I feel like they solve any genuine eagerness to solve the game and have just been..."existing" before the wagon, and even now with the wagon they don't do much about it. I think he could easily be scum but also could just be town, he feels more engaged than Galron in the game but not enough to be very readable to me.

Then basically my readlist as of now would be something as:

[Grandpa] - town read
[Gimli] - town lean
[Enchant, Scoliosis] - nulltown
[Galron] - null
[Freedom] - nullscum
[Elements, Vanders] - scum lean
[---] - scum read

I call Vanders/Elements "scum reads" but in my readlist I reserve that for people that I think are like, lockscum or very near that, just as I find it very hard I'll ever change my mind about Grandpa being town and if he's scum congrats you fooled me very well.

I gotta say that I'm starting to find it very hard to believe both Vanders and Elements could be town though. At least one needs to be scum perhaps...?

But hm, not enough content on this game to be sure of that really, I feel we have talked about mech a bit too much and it has made the game less productive in terms of getting reads.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ah, I think Scoliosis is the unique slot I kinda like a bit that I haven't explained why:

It's basically because he seems to have a genuine bloodlust for finding scum and arrived at similar suspicious about Vanders as me. Doesn't feel a lot like a bus so perhaps if Vanders is really scum he's just town? Maybe? Gonna leave at that for now.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I can compromise on Freedom though, just think Vanders or Elements is a bit more likely to flip scum than Freedom here for reasons explained.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

I suppose we still need to all agree on something for night actions before we could move on from today but I'll try to talk about that saturday or sunday? I don't want to revert back into mech talk yet because I think discussing the reads and explanations I just posted is more useful at the moment.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

see thats the problem i have tabibitos now. they never finished their strategy and never suggested anything

You guys didn't even discuss what I posted on reads just now.

It's fine but like, do you want me to keep posting so much even if no one cares? C'mon Grandpa, if no one cares I'm just gonna shut up. Let's do what you guys already want to do, I'm tired and don't want to try convincing everyone on something new again.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

see thats the problem i have tabibitos now. they never finished their strategy and never suggested anything

You guys didn't even discuss what I posted on reads just now.

It's fine but like, do you want me to keep posting so much even if no one cares? C'mon Grandpa, if no one cares I'm just gonna shut up. Let's do what you guys already want to do, I'm tired and don't want to try convincing everyone on something new again.

- Aether

i care -- im listening, i told u i disagreed with ur read on elements because it felt hypocritical but agree on vander

Ok then, if I had to "suggest a new plan" I would say Nurse claims, 6 players protect the claimed Nurse and guarantee it doesn't die, we pick someone kinda sus outside of the elimination of today by healing votes and that player outside of the group protecting the Nurse targets someone inside the group. The Nurse targes the remaining suspect.

That way it's unlikely for the Nurse to die, if the suspect is a killing power he may confirm himself with double nightkills, and Nurse may or not confirm whether the JK is dead or outside the block if it does kill the suspect they are targeting.

I believe that gives us info on roles, gives a chance for us to confirm one extra player at night and also don't need to go the no elimination route.

There. Now although I can answer questions I'm not gonna try to strongarm people into accepting this plan, that you can do if you want to.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Of course the suspect outside the group can't pick Nurse as his target.

Seeing as you guys suspect him, I believe Enchants, that wants to go rogue with night actions anyway, may be a good idea for a person outside of the group.

We optimally want someone that has chances of being town but a bit scummy at the same time. Not someone too scummy like Vanders/Freedom or too towny.

[Tabibitos]

so my plan would be:

A) Nurse claims
B) Everyone except someone (?Enchant?) targets the Nurse (which guarantees she doesn't die I believe)
C) Enchant targets someone other than Nurse, Nurse targets Enchant
B) We eliminate either Freedom or Vanders today

That's it I guess?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

no, we do what elements and grandpa suggested

Well Grandpa now you can't say I didn't try

let's do as you Elems said

[Tabibitos]

B) Everyone except someone (?Enchant?) targets the Nurse (which guarantees she doesn't die I believe)

why enchant?

Not too towny not too scummy

If it's someone that has lower chances of being town, like say Vanders or Freedom as our reads say at the moment, they'll just say "oh yeah I protected x person so that's why nothing happened".

If we pick let's say, you which I believe is town, even if you do confirm yourself by suicide as weak doctor, or killing someone as Quack or CPR, it's not a big advantage because we were already town reading you.

If we pick someone like Enchant that is kinda in the middle, between being town read by some and scum by others, if he was able to suicide himself or kill someone, it would confirm him. He would also likely not agree to target the Nurse so it's easier to just have him try to kill someone.

That's why I guess?

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

I want a flip and we shouldn't go over plans again, it's just dragging the day for too long. I trust the work elements did in the game and it's the plan that's being thrown around the most. I don't really trust tabibitos anyway, and its too late to out the nurse

Do you realize "Elem's plan" is basically my plan without outing the Nurse and the second group also protecting a town read?

I just wanted to say that. Now bye.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

no, we do what elements and grandpa suggested

Well Grandpa now you can't say I didn't try

let's do as you Elems said

yea but the problem is -- its too late, if u think elements is scum then scumelements took over the game because u were able to come early in the game and convince us back there. does that make sense? i completely understand but to scum, its an easy opportunity to shut u up and basically and not listen to you, and to town, same thing to most people

Yeah it makes sense and is what I told you back there? No offense Grandpa but I don't understand your point.

I realized all this before you explained to me and that's why I didn't talk about a "new plan" or insist on Elems. If you guys already reached a conclusion about both of those things that's fine by me, I'm fine with ending the day and also compromissing on Freedom if I need to.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

so my plan would be:

A) Nurse claims
B) Everyone except someone (?Enchant?) targets the Nurse (which guarantees she doesn't die I believe)
C) Enchant targets someone other than Nurse, Nurse targets Enchant
B) We eliminate either Freedom or Vanders today
- Aether

Nurse can die if enchant and Nurse are JK and either weak or doctor

I probably should have said "guarantees she won't die without we gaining important info". For her to die without being a weak doctor/Enchant being a JK we need both CPR + Quack + Naive inside that group, so we would already narrow down where the vigs are for the next day, which could come handy.

If Enchant is the JK or Nurse dies as weak doctor...well, that would also be important information to get.

For Nurse to die here basically we need to risk scum missing their night kill targeting her, and we would know Enchant is either confirmed scum or the JK and we could test that out to have him confirmed either way later.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ah, there's also the possibility of both vigs on the group as a result of Nurse dying yeah, so Nurse dying then would be because of the following possibilities:

- Nurse was weak doctor and Enchant is scum
- Enchant is a JK and blocked one of the doctors in a [CPR, Quack, Naive, Any doc, Any doc] scenario

I'm not sure I'm missing something and that's wrong but I think it would be useful even if unluckily it resulted in an accident, we could narrow down who protects and who are likely vigs a lot. We would basically be able to coordinate protects/kills then.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

k and who i shall target

If we did my "new plan", I think a pool of who you can target is more efficient than locking your target. Otherwise it's easier for mafia to impede you confirming yourself if you're a vig.

[Tabibitos]

like, at least 3 or 4 names of people you can target I think. I would volunteer myself to make it easier.

I'm fine with doing what everyone else wants though.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

Ah, there's also the possibility of both vigs on the group as a result of Nurse dying yeah, so Nurse dying then would be because of the following possibilities:

- Nurse was weak doctor and Enchant is scum
- Enchant is a JK and blocked one of the doctors in a [CPR, Quack, Naive, Any doc, Any doc] scenario

I'm not sure I'm missing something and that's wrong but I think it would be useful even if unluckily it resulted in an accident, we could narrow down who protects and who are likely vigs a lot. We would basically be able to coordinate protects/kills then.

- Aether

Ah, a third scenario is [CPR, Quack, Naive, Any doc, Any doc] *and* mafia targets the Nurse, but like, they would be risking missing their nightkill this way. It's a more high risk high reward plan than my old one I suppose, but I feel we just don't get enough reward from my old plan the way we're doing it right now.

Either way, /shrug.

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

k and who i shall target

If we did my "new plan", I think a pool of who you can target is more efficient than locking your target. Otherwise it's easier for mafia to impede you confirming yourself if you're a vig.

But if i am weak i die for nothing

Oh...now that's true. Hadn't thought about that.

Hmm...I guess we either select two people for you or simply lock you on someone after all huh?

[Tabibitos]

Erm, Enchant, we aren't doing it though, we were talking in hypotheticals, we're doing Grandpa/Elems thing as far as I know.

We're supposed to target Elems according to that plan so let's do it unless everyone agrees on doing otherwise

- Aether

[Tabibitos]

no, we do what elements and grandpa suggested

Well Grandpa now you can't say I didn't try

let's do as you Elems said

yea but the problem is -- its too late, if u think elements is scum then scumelements took over the game because u were able to come early in the game and convince us back there. does that make sense? i completely understand but to scum, its an easy opportunity to shut u up and basically and not listen to you, and to town, same thing to most people

Lolwhat

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Wouldn’t really miss Freedom slot if they are town or scum but i do think Vanders overall has bigger scum equity so that would be the better flip today.

- Lumine

[Tabibitos]

Okay, let's do it

- Aether