Micro 11: Mostly Normal Micro (Day 4)

[Bub Bidderskins]

VOTE: Bub

For being the last to confirm.

Totally right.

vote: Bub Bidderskins

I hate those holdouts.

[Bub Bidderskins]

But seriously. I don't like how lucky has responded to light pressure. He received a pretty random vote and felt the need to justify his actions. This feels like scum defensiveness to me.

vote: lucky

[/serious vote]

[Bub Bidderskins]

Of course my vote on Lucky was a reach; I was trying to get out of RVS. Right now I'm leaning scum on him because I think this:

Well i voted Salamence because I did an ISO on him and he looked really really scummy. I mean how dont you see it?

No but really, ive played the most games with him from everyone in the player list so I felt comfortable with putting my rvs vote there.

Feels like an over-explanation. It's the RVS, he doesn't need a reason to vote. I feel like the only reason he would provide the reason is if he actually felt threatened by it.

[Bub Bidderskins]

unvote: Lucky, vote: Bud

Now that we are getting to know each other a little bit better, it's time for a little RQS..

1. What timezone do you live in? (EST)
2. Do you consider yourself an investigator or an analyzer? Ie. Do you actively ask questions in order to draw out scum or do you sit back and analyse everything that is said? (Personally I prefer to analyse because that is where my strengths are but I feel that the key to winning is to investigate and be actively asking questions. I will expand more on this when I've heard from everyone else.)
3. What was your first impression of Sal's first post and Djd's eventual proclamation that Sal is town? (I believe I answered this in my previous post)

1. Central
2. False dichotomy
3. Usual early game banter

Honestly, I don't think those RQS are really alignment indicative. Scum could just as easily ask them as town. However, I think his vote on me is scummy. It puts me at L-1 and doesn't have much reason behind it. Then he makes this post:

You are correct good sir, I thought I was placing him at L-2.

UNVOTE: Bud.

I don't want this day to end too fast. I still have some questions to ask.

Where he shows support for my wagon but doesn't want to be the one to put me at L-1. However, this could very likely be an honest townie mistake. The real problem with his vote is this:,

(3) Bud Bidderskins: zabriel, Mehdi2277, DoubleJD [Mr Ree] (L-2)

I find it unlikely that scum aren't on my wagon. Zabriel's vote was random and mehdi has made reasoned analysis and has scumhunted. DoubleJD's vote was the worst, but his vote on Ree makes me think he's town. He jumped from a rather large bandwagon on town to start a completely new one. I don't think scum would do that.

So that leaves Mr Ree, who had a weak reason to vote. Of course, it is possible that the scum decided to avoid early bandwagons all together, but if there's scum on my wagon it's either Zabriel or Ree, and Ree's vote is in the worse spot.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Right now I think there's one scum within [Ree, Zabriel] and one scum within [Godot, Sal, Bork, Lucky]. I think Godot is likely town because of this post:

I don't mind if we wagon someone quickly. I'd just prefer that we not set ourselves up for scum to hammer. The sooner they can get mislynches and move out of our two NK-free days, the better for them. As such, I'm becoming wary of the Bub wagon, too. He's now at L-1, and we're almost 24 hours into this game. We really should slow down. I know it's a micro game, but that shouldn't affect how we use our time (or if we use our time). Speedwagons don't allow us to exchange information in a calmer, less delicate situation.

Here, it's at the point where anyone who wants to be an idiot and sprint in for the kill can. If someone does hammer soon, then we'll have to take a good, LONG look at Bub's flip D2 and see what we can put together. This is definitely not a point in the game to rush someone to the gallows. We have this gift of two lynches without fear of the scum returning fire. Let's use it and not speedwagon anyone.

He's trying to slow down the wagon on me, which is not something that I think scum would do. That leaves my non-wagoning scum pool as [Sal, Bork, Lucky]. I'm going to go back and re-read Sal and Bork, since I'm null on them at the moment. I still don't like Lucky's reaction early in the day, though my vote on him is still for reasonably weak RVS reasons.

[Bub Bidderskins]

V/LA until I get my computer fixed

[Bub Bidderskins]

Okay I'm back and almost caught up. I haven't read Johhog's massive wall of doom (that is also illustrated, I see) but I've read everything else.

The DJD slot is town. He jumped onto the wagon on, which was riding fine at L-2, but then he decides to jump off and vote Ree. There is zero motivation for scum to jump off a perfectly viable (and fairly popular) mislynch wagon to start a wagon on somebody else. I read this as a townslip.

I still don't like lucky's reaction early on in D-1, and I don't feel he's been contributing much. However, now my number one scumread is sal.

Sal has contributed very little to this game aside from defending himself. But I think the scummiest thing he's done is:

Guts telling me DJD is scum.

I'm in.

VOTE: DJD

This shameless wagon onto DJD. He sees DJD as a viable lynch wagon and jumps on for literally no reason when Ree votes for DJD. And then there's this post:

Oh yay, the DJD player slot has it out for me.

SHOCKER.

When Johhog didn't even vote for him. In this way he seems self-centered and more concerned about his own standing than in finding scum. Then he:

On my phone, will reply tonight.

But first:

LOL. LOL.

THIS GUY IS SCUM 100%

OMG YOU MAKE AN EXCELLENT REPLACEMENT FOR DJD, I CAN'T WAIT TO LYNCH YOU NOW.
Show

Immediately calls Johhog scum. Keep in mind that he has provided no reasons for this slot being scum other than "gut"

unvote; vote: sal

Zabriel is also scummy. He seems to be posting mainly fluff.

Bork is still null. For some reason I can't get a fucking read on him.

I'm slightly less suspicious of Ree now that he's made some cases and attempted to scumhunt, but the whole "townie golden ticket" thing is complete bullshit. Townies say stuff like "this guy's town" all the time.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Bub what's your opinion on sala's earlier posting near the start of the game (page 2 mainly)? His reaction to having two/three votes was to scum hunt which to me shows quite a bit of town motivation.

Although I'm willing to agree from what you said on joh/djd that his vote switch early on was likely town motivated. Ree/zab/bork is where I want to lynch now (ree>zab>bork most scummy to least).

It's an RVS wagon that isn't serious. I think his response to Johhog's allegations are much more telling.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Sorry I haven't been posting as much as I would like, RL and stuff.

I FINALLY GOT A READ ON BORK! YAY!!!

Bork's prob town from his recent posts. They're well reasoned and designed to find scum. Godot's recent post also look townie for the same reason. They go into my town pool with Johhog. I've still got a weak town read on Mehdi. My strongest suspect is still Sala' though. He's made literally zero attempt to find scum (other than Johhog). He's just tunneling now.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Sal, do you really think Johhog is scum or are you just on a vendetta?

[Bub Bidderskins]

Lucky's plea is alignment-null as far as I'm concerned. I still would much prefer a Sala lynch to a lucky or zab one.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Vote: ree

He pushed the sala wagon without actually voting on it. He can now go back and legitimately say that he was not on the sala mislynch wagon, but during the day he said this:

Scummy in the fact that he's not really contributing much to the game. For someone who is ALWAYS online, he is not posting nearly enough. His reads are few and far between due to the fact that he has mainly been tunnelling 2 or 3 players.

And now he's trying to put the focus on the wagons, when he was on neither.

In other news:

I will eat my hat if Johhog is scum
I'm also leaning town on Bork.
Lucky hasn't been posting much, but considering his recent post that is understandable and alignment-null

[Bub Bidderskins]

Ok. Bub, the reason that your theory is wrong is that it makes no sense for ScumRee to put himself off the wagon for terms of wagon analysis; as scum he's going to try to put himself into the biggest group possible to widen the number of people we'd have to potentially mislynch before we were sure he was the scum on the wagon, whereas if he tries to pawn himself off as off the wagon, it'd be just between Lucky and him.

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

That he's dead cause I hammered him? He was the better of the two wagons, and I don't have the benefit of hindsight to guide my decisions. Do you think Zab is scum and I should've hammered him instead?

Town------------------------------------------------------------->scum

Johhog Bork Godot Lucky Zab Ree

[Bub Bidderskins]

Screwed up my copy and pasting. This:


Town------------------------------------------------------------->scum

Johhog....Bork........................Godot....Lucky.................Zab............Ree


Was a reply to this:

@Godot, bub and bork: care to do a town to scum list for us?

I'm still working on a response to the above quote.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Ok. Bub, the reason that your theory is wrong is that it makes no sense for ScumRee to put himself off the wagon for terms of wagon analysis; as scum he's going to try to put himself into the biggest group possible to widen the number of people we'd have to potentially mislynch before we were sure he was the scum on the wagon, whereas if he tries to pawn himself off as off the wagon, it'd be just between Lucky and him.

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

That he's dead cause I hammered him? He was the better of the two wagons, and I don't have the benefit of hindsight to guide my decisions. Do you think Zab is scum and I should've hammered him instead?

He pushed the wagon, jumped off, and then started hunting on the wagon, thus eliminating him from the suspects. I believe that he jumped off of what he knew was a town wagon so he could lynch town off of it with impunity. I'm always suspicious of anybody "being with a wagon in spirit". The only reasonable reason for supporting a wagon and not voting on it are:

1. You are currently on another wagon you like better.
2. You don't want that player to be lynched too early in the day.

Neither of these are valid in Ree's case.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Wow, this devolved very quickly.

Johhog, you should post your case. Personally, I think you're on to something with that contradiction you caught earlier.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Sorry for not posting that much, but I've been either busy or sick the passed couple of days.

I still feel that Johhog's town. Ree's case is just a bunch of crap thrown at Johhog hoping it will stick. As for the Amish tell, I don't believe in scum tells like that. Blanket tells have no room for the subtlety of the moment and as such, are wrong a lot of the time.

[Bub Bidderskins]

For the record, I fucking called it.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Bub, you were here and had nothing to say at all other than you were right?

Yes.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Ree's claim is believable, especially since he named off his targets. While he could be scum gambiting, I think it's most likely that he and Godot are town. So that leaves lucky and Bork, right? Doesn't matter which order we lynch 'em in, just go.

vote: bork

[Bub Bidderskins]

@Bub: What made you change your reads? It's a big change even though your last reads were from day 2. Why do you think Bork is scum? What do you think about the possibility of Godot/Lucky as a scum team?

POE mainly. I'm more sure of my town read on you and Godot now (given the claim) than I was of my town read on Bork.

[Bub Bidderskins]

@Bub would you be willing to vote Ree? I havnt heard your answer yet.

No.

I really don't like how Lucky is trying to find another out. He's trying to leave as many options open as possible to keep us from using PoE.

The fact that scum hasn't quick-hammered bork yet means that either I'm scum or bork is. I know I'm not scum, thus bork is. Scumteam's Lucky/Bork. GG

[Bub Bidderskins]

Just so I have this clear,

VOTE: Bub

For being the last to confirm.

Totally right.

vote: Bub Bidderskins

I hate those holdouts.

Bub, you did this back at the beginning of the game. Care to explain why you didn't go straight into your comment on Lucky?

It was a joke.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Allrighty -- I'm not gonna go through a "What-if" thing on every player. I don't think that's particularly productive and I think would "muddy the waters" as Ree put it -- I'm instead going to touch on what I think are the most likely scenarios.

Bub

Bub is starting to worry me a little -- Day 1 and Day 2 play are town, through and through, but his Day 3 play has been pretty much "throw a vote down and coast" which is undermining the previous two days. If he is town, and my gut is still saying he is, then the scumteam just has no stones and don't think they can coordinate a quickhammer before Bub gets back and busts them. This probably means Lucky is on the scumteam, since he's much less consistently around than either Godot or especially Ree. Thus I will say that if Bub is town, Lucky is definitely scum.

Lucky

The chameleon read -- my read on him has mostly fit around how I feel about everyone else since he has so little content. I will say this though -- he looks like he's looking for an easy out on D3 with Ree -- he's got little oomph behind his suspicion (unlike myself). I thought I had him dead to rights on D1 with his ill-timed AtE, but his head kind of stayed in the clouds and I don't have the benefit of past play with him besides Micro 3 which barely got off the ground before town won to see if he's BSing me. I will say that #569 is a bad, bad post -- you specifically are trying to get me to keep all my options open and undermine my read on Bub.

Godot

Good D1 play. Slightly reserved D2 play. Has received essentially no pressure throughout the entire game -- fine in and of itself, but the minute I exert any, he seriously starts to overreact and start pointing at me. Seems like you're more upset that I swapped a read on

you

than that I swapped a read.

Lashing out today when he had me down as town for a while doesn't help that out.

Am I not supposed to reevaluate given all that's happened?
I

thought

I caught a daytalk slip from him, and I maintain that it was a reasonable thing for scum that had daytalk to say -- but it doesn't add up because any team sans Godot/Bub could've quickhammered me now with it (I'd been waiting for Lucky to post before I said this). His inquiry into Bub about the early game selfvote is silly and serves no purpose other than to fabricate a scummy interaction.

My "Mehdi quickwagon" as you want to put it wasn't a quickwagon at all -- I'd very noticeably been waving his flag all day; prior to that point, though, no one had been willing to run with me on it.

Ree

Uses a lot of logic that I don't agree with; see mostly his case against DJD early on. Seemed at least genuine when I pressed him on it. Was a little better D2 and caused me to side with him over Johhog who had a pretty weak case. His D3 claim was poorly executed -- the pro-town way to claim that role would've been to lay down the role name, what it did, and BOTH of your targets immediately. The more incrementally you do it the more I'm forced to believe that you wanted to gauge people's reactions before you decided what you're going to say. You can

say

you're reaction testing there, but the fact of the matter is that the more you say up front, the more likely people are to think that you're being honest with them and not changing your story based on how people initially respond to it.

Your suspicion of me mostly seems to revolve on the fact that I was the hammer vote on both Sala and Johhog and that I might've hammered to "stifle conversation". This strikes me as odd, considering how close we were to deadline, the fact that you knew exactly where I stood on the issues before I hammered, the fact that the other wagon was on YOU, and the fact that I gave people up plenty of time to chime in before I dropped it. The scum thing to do there would've been to shut up and hope for a No Lynch, thereby giving no one any flip info. I'm curious as to if you can adequately describe an alternate course of action there that would've been more pro-town or if you're just blowing smoke.

Overall, you're scummy, but not as scummy as Lucky or Godot. If your claim does turn out to be fake, I'm going to be really, really upset with myself.

HOS: Lucky
FOS: Godot (could easily flip but I have a hunch Lucky will get wagonned before Godot ever would today).

p-edit: figures someone would wall right as I was walling. haven't read it yet.

Notice how many options he's leaving open to him.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Lucky's scum with bork, so.

unvote; vote: lucky

[Bub Bidderskins]

vote: bork

GG

[Bub Bidderskins]

Just look at Bork's post last day. He was leaving open so many damn options. He was gunning for this all last night.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Just look at the post you made. You left literally every option open to yourself for the next day. You had zero strong town reads. No matter who was lynched on that day or who was NKed you had somebody you could lynch. Textbook scumplay. Lynch this scum motherfucker. GG.

[Bub Bidderskins]

And in response to your question, my read on you changed for the same reason that your read on me changed from this:

Bub's still town

(and a bunch of other times calling me town, including calling me your "strongest read")

To me being scum. HYPOCRITE ALERT! Your grasping at straws now.

Ree, do this. Iso Bork. ctrl-F "Bub" and look at all the times Bork called me town. Now he's trying to claim that what I did was a scum tell. Bullshit. Lynch this scum motherfucker now.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I'd have gone for Lucky or Godot yesterday;

Lucky for his attempt to discredit my town reads (#569), his whole trying to get people to lynch you without really talking about why he didn't believe your claim (#534), and his end of D1 play.
Godot for his bad reaction to the first pressure he'd received all game by basically OMGUSing me, and misrepping what I did with Mehdi on D1 (#566).

Or me:

Bub
Bub is starting to worry me a little -- Day 1 and Day 2 play are town, through and through, but his Day 3 play has been pretty much "throw a vote down and coast" which is undermining the previous two days. If he is town, and my gut is still saying he is, then the scumteam just has no stones and don't think they can coordinate a quickhammer before Bub gets back and busts them. This probably means Lucky is on the scumteam, since he's much less consistently around than either Godot or especially Ree. Thus I will say that if Bub is town, Lucky is definitely scum.

Or Ree:

Ree
Uses a lot of logic that I don't agree with; see mostly his case against DJD early on. Seemed at least genuine when I pressed him on it. Was a little better D2 and caused me to side with him over Johhog who had a pretty weak case. His D3 claim was poorly executed -- the pro-town way to claim that role would've been to lay down the role name, what it did, and BOTH of your targets immediately. The more incrementally you do it the more I'm forced to believe that you wanted to gauge people's reactions before you decided what you're going to say. You can say you're reaction testing there, but the fact of the matter is that the more you say up front, the more likely people are to think that you're being honest with them and not changing your story based on how people initially respond to it.

Your suspicion of me mostly seems to revolve on the fact that I was the hammer vote on both Sala and Johhog and that I might've hammered to "stifle conversation". This strikes me as odd, considering how close we were to deadline, the fact that you knew exactly where I stood on the issues before I hammered, the fact that the other wagon was on YOU, and the fact that I gave people up plenty of time to chime in before I dropped it. The scum thing to do there would've been to shut up and hope for a No Lynch, thereby giving no one any flip info. I'm curious as to if you can adequately describe an alternate course of action there that would've been more pro-town or if you're just blowing smoke.

Overall, you're scummy, but not as scummy as Lucky or Godot. If your claim does turn out to be fake, I'm going to be really, really upset with myself.

Bork had literally zero town reads yesterday. He was willing to lynch

anybody

.

[Bub Bidderskins]

So was I calling you town yesterday or willing to lynch you? It's apparently one or the other depending on what argument you're trying to make.

Well, you see, I can't really tell. That's the point. Your read on me flipped around to whatever was convenient for you at the time. You called me town, and then called me scummy, and then attacked me for flipping my read on you. The hypocrisy is just overwhelming.

think it's pretty obvious that Bub was off the table yesterday -- at no point in that first paragraph did I ever even intimate that I was interested in lynching Bub; even moreso considering that Ree WAS willing to lynch him. My point was that your contribution day 3 was essentially non-existent. Why is that? Did you figure this game was just going to roll into your lap due to the difficulty of 5p LyLo for town? But you're firing from all cylinders now, which indicates a difference in the likelihood of your team winning from the previous days, and lo and behold, we lynched scum yesterday for the first time and now that desperation is starting to show.

Please, don't give me any of that bullshit. You said that I was "starting to worry you a little bit" which opens up the door to further suspicion. The main thing is that YOU DID NOT HAVE A SINGLE TOWN READ YESTERDAY. NOT ONE! You listed EVERY single player as suspicious or scummy. There wasn't a single player other than yourself that you said "hey, this guy's town". That wasn't the case earlier when you called me your strongest town read, though.

So Ree, here's the thing with Bork. He's played a pretty good scum game so far. Hasn't gotten into many entanglements, let some of the stupider town players implode while sitting back, and looked kinda townie. But he made one massive mistake, and that was to call me town. Now he's in a situation where he has to lynch me to win, so he's trying to fabricate a bunch of bullshit to explain his dramatic change in reads Even stopping so low as to attack me for something he himself did.

He's scum Ree, plain and simple. So just lynch him and it's GG.

[Bub Bidderskins]

My read flipped on you, today, when I found out that Ree was town. That has nothing to do with the fact that your D3 play was passive and unhelpful, which I hadn't been expecting from you at the time. Just because I thought you were the towniest one around doesn't mean you were shitting rainbows the whole game. After my read post, there

was

no further suspicion on you D3 from my end, so you can claim that I'd have taken part in your lynch if it had been brought up again and have absolutely nothing to back that up. As far as my willingness to vote you (or lack thereof): you're conveniently ignoring the fact that Ree in fact DID vote you and I chose not to indulge.

Besides, even if I'd called you an unerring beacon of towniness yesterday and swore on my grandmother's gravestone, I'd still be sitting here, today, calling you scum because I now know that you are scum.

Your play was markedly different than mine as far as swapped reads. You said: "Ree's claim is believable, especially since he named off his targets. While he could be scum gambiting, I think it's most likely that he and Godot are town." There are two problems with this:
1) Ree sending a message to Godot says nothing about Godot, only about Ree.
2) Godot didn't even get the message, so even to try to argue, fallaciously, that the message somehow makes Godot town can't be done here.
You never came back to this point, not even once. You just saw that Ree didn't want to lynch Godot and realized that you'd be better served to try to get me lynched instead. When that failed you bussed.

There has been so marked a change in your play over the three days that it's worth noting here:
On Day 1 and 2, Bub posted little, but was concise and took stances on things.
Day 3 (5p lylo; heavily scum favored) was coasting and hoping a townie would take the second vote on me so Lucky could finish it.
Day 4 (3p lylo, momentum switching back toward town) is panic mode.

Overall, trying to smear me for swapping reads, rather than the manner in which those reads were swapped, makes it pretty obvious which one of us is thinking like a townie.

No, I'm not trying to smear you for swapping reads. I'm trying to smear you for your rampant hypocrisy. You called me scummy for swapping reads on you, and yet you did the

exact same thing!!!

Your calling me scum for changing my playstyle today, when today you have posted infinitely more than throughout the rest of the game.

Changing reads when somebody becomes confirmed town isn't scummy. Becoming much more active when it's 3 person LYLO is not scummy.

Calling me out on those things when you've done the exact same thing is extremely scummy. Leaving every god damn options open to you last day is really fucking scummy. Let me repeat: BORK HAD NO TOWN READS D-4!!! None. Zero. Nada. Not a single one. He could have easily gone for absolutely anybody. Don't believe this bullshit ree and lynch this scum mother fucker.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Also, if I'm scum with Lucky, then why did I come out of the gate and vote for him? And keep my vote on him even when a bunch of other people were calling my vote weak and saying that lucky was town?

[Bub Bidderskins]

I did not do the exact same thing and I explained why. Shouting it again while ignoring my counterargument does not make it so.

Now that's pure semantics.

There was no way I was lynching you, and I was leaning against lynching Ree. You wanna get into semantics that I didn't call Ree town? Weak.

Please quote where you said that my lynch was off the table. And also, back on the last day when I voted for you and kept my vote on you forever, shouldn't you have thought I was scum if you were town? If you really are town, then you should have thought "man, scum hasn't tried to quickhammer, so Bub's scum since I'm town." But no, I was off the table. And also, how does "I think Ree is scummy" translate to "I was leaning against lynching Ree"?

Are you really trying to argue that scum don't ever distance in the early game? Especially when it becomes very obvious that no one's going for that lynch and therefore you don't have to bus?

Are you really trying to argue that scum would come out of the gate D-1, vote their

only

scumbud, and keep the vote on that scumbud despite being called scummy for said vote?

Your D1 and D2 play was reasonable, but you basically were a non-entity D3 because you had no pressure on you and it looked like I might be a probable lynch target -- optimal scum play there is not to rock the boat.

I'll concede the D4 issue, your only hope now really IS to do what you're doing.

So concede that you were being hypocritical when you called me scummy for changing my playstyle in a 3-person LYLO?

[Bub Bidderskins]

So concede that you were being hypocritical when you called me scummy for changing my playstyle in a 3-person LYLO?

Messed this up. Should have read:

So you concede that you were being hypocritical when you called me scummy for changing my playstyle in a 3-person LYLO?

[Bub Bidderskins]

Lol, so this is fun right? I've already chosen who I want to lynch. Don't let me interrupt your arguement though. I'm rather enjoying this.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Dude, you're making this too easy. Resist or something. Put some fight into it man!

[/quote]
[/quote]

[Bub Bidderskins]

GG

[Bub Bidderskins]

I thought it was a pretty good game overall. Sorry about not posting as much as I should, I've been really busy these passed few weeks.