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Post #171 (isolation #2) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:58 pm
Postby CF Riot »
This game is hard. N and Myko are town, Equinox is prob town. DV is squarely null. Ice Guy and Konowa are just about evenly scummy. I would be 100% okay with a flash wagon on Peta right before deadline. I actually would embrace it with open arms. My opinion on this is heavily biased but that's okay.
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Post #203 (isolation #7) » Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:48 pm
Postby CF Riot »
In post 105, DeasVail wrote:I am undecided on IceGuy. I guess I'm leaning scum, and I really don't have any other scum reads, but I don't feel too confident about it.
I don't see DV saying this as scum if IG is town, with IG at L-1 and Myko being the only dissenter with, "this lynch is bad."
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Post #296 (isolation #12) » Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:21 pm
Postby CF Riot »
I'm totally jaded and I admit that, but I honestly think you're a decent lynch. And if we really need to get into this, I don't see how you townread Mala after a page or gutread IG as scum after 1 post.
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Post #298 (isolation #13) » Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:44 pm
Postby CF Riot »
There's not much for me to play ball with. I think a townread off that one post is bullshit, and you called IG scum before he L-1'd you and didn't vote him until several posts after that.
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Post #300 (isolation #14) » Thu Nov 22, 2012 7:07 pm
Postby CF Riot »
That's a dumb question. You could've been buddying someone you thought would buy it, you may have wanted to discredit Konowa for whatever reason, you may have a buddy who was in a position to scumread Mala, or you may have just done it on a whim because it felt right at the time. I don't really know why you would bs a townread on Mala, but that's what it felt like you did.
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Post #362 (isolation #20) » Sun Dec 02, 2012 8:07 pm
Postby CF Riot »
I think assuming the scum team must have telegraphed their kills because of the setup is dumb. Yes, if there were something that stood out that looked like waving at a target, then you could make that case and I'd listen, but I think it's just as likely if not more that both scum individually picked someone they thought would make a good kill and hoped their teammate was on the same page. You pointing out his lack of telegraphing a target as a point in his favor is therefore super bogus.
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Post #364 (isolation #21) » Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:31 pm
Postby CF Riot »
I don't believe you believe that. I haven't felt like you've had a legitimate scum read on anyone all game. Your case on Equinox sucked, and none of your other votes or reads have been justified in any way other than the QT-tell vote which ended up being wrong anyways.
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Post #367 (isolation #22) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:44 am
Postby CF Riot »
In post 365, IceGuy wrote:We are in LyLo after D1. Obviously cases can't be as refined as they would be if we would've had several days' worth of content to analyze.
You're implying my problem is with your play D2, or D4 I guess. I'm saying D1 you didn't give any reason for most of your votes and the 2 times you did 1 was total crap and the other was invalid. Plus you haven't pushed a read on anyone. You seem entirely content putting a vote down then taking a back seat.
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Post #374 (isolation #23) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:23 am
Postby CF Riot »
In post 368, Equinox wrote:On the other hand, if IceGuy didn't telegraph anything, do you really think he'd have been in the mindset where killing petapan was an option right after mykonian got lynched and flipped town? Seems more likely he'd have thought of petapan as a possible mislynch after that mess, considering what people tend to think of competing wagons.
IceGuy being unlikely to target Peta is a decent thought but I don't think it is related to him not signaling a target. Had you just made this point it'd hold more weight with me but using a lack of evidence as a supplement in his favor makes me wary of it. At this point I'm assuming you didn't find evidence of anyone telegraphing a target otherwise you'd have said something by now, so I don't see why you would feel it was worth mentioning in IG's case.
@Konowa the wording of your last post is sort of confusing but assuming we lynch scum today we won't get two shots at lynching the buddy. And now the reason no lynching was stupid suddenly clicks with me. We gave up a mislynch. Willingly. I knew it felt wrong but I couldn't put together why. I'm coming around to an Equinox lynch.
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Post #377 (isolation #24) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:02 am
Postby CF Riot »
If we'd lynched scum, the last scum would have lost their kill for that night and we'd go into a 4:1 day. Now if we lynch scum they still lose their kill but we hit 3:1 so our best course of action is to no lynch again to force a 2:1 endgame.
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Post #383 (isolation #25) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:28 pm
Postby CF Riot »
Yeah, N has it figured out. We would send it into a 3:1 night with no NK. Then if we mislynch the following day it goes into a 2:1 night
with
kill, also known as gg scum. We have no mislynches left. We traded it for one less townie suspect today. By request from Equinox, who I believe knows better.
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Post #389 (isolation #27) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:11 pm
Postby CF Riot »
Did Konowa actually engage in the first setup argument? I thought it was mostly him responding to the accusations of IG. I ask like I'm not about to go look it up myself.
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Post #394 (isolation #29) » Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:11 pm
Postby CF Riot »
K I'm getting bored. Equinox what are we waiting on with your telegraphing NKs thing? Also you're full of turkey with regards to the above but I don't even care about that right now.
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Post #397 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:44 pm
Postby CF Riot »
No really? You actually want to argue this subject with me? Your plan is Totes McGotes the scum play for our D2 situation. Your whole post is just a big excuse not to post your reads though, which is a much bigger deal than me proving to you why you made the right play for your team (read: not my team) out of the box D2.
pedit: oh snap. Can I smoke first? Nah, I'll drop a post but then you gotta let me smoke for like 10.
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Post #401 (isolation #31) » Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:57 pm
Postby CF Riot »
Okay so your plan: 4:2, no lynch -> 3:2.
Pro: We have 1 less target.
Pro?: We get an extra NK to analyze. (So far no one has mentioned this helping but you, and you haven't actually told any of the rest of us how it's helped.)
Con: We can pretty reasonably predict they are going to be one of the less scummy players of the bunch if we give scum any credit at all.
Con: Plus this drops the ratio of townvotes to scum votes required for the lynch.
Con: Plus we now have 0 room for error because we cannot mislynch again.
My plan: 4:2, nut up and lynch scum -> 4:1
Pro: Town to scum ratio on D2 is more favorable for town.
Pro: Town to scum ratio on D3 after a successful lynch is much more favorable for town.
Pro: If a mislynch happens D2, there's still a small window of opportunity for scum to punt and town to make a comeback.
Pro: If a mislynch happens D3 after succesful D2, it's not game over.
Con: There is one more innocent suspect town must avoid lynching.
Con?: Limited NK info.
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Post #411 (isolation #33) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:03 pm
Postby CF Riot »
If you haven't noticed, I don't really care when you post it, if ever. I'm just pointing out your continued feet dragging to the other players to help them see what I see.
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Post #484 (isolation #38) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:47 am
Postby CF Riot »
Konowa's push on vs N's lack of push on Equinox is one of the reasons I thought he was town. There wasn't much suspicion of Equinox in thread before Konowa posted so I didn't see scum bussing at that point.
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Post #487 (isolation #39) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:41 pm
Postby CF Riot »
This set up is smart. I like it too. I wish we would've talked about the no lynch D2 thing. It felt wrong to me but I didn't realize exactly how it screwed us until it came up D4.
