Micro 130: Noughts & Crosses Mafia

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi, everyone. I lightly skimmed the thread earlier and am reading again now. As far as lynch policy goes, though, it's still quicker to lynch the scum than it is to win by grid. So narrowing down the lynch pool based on grid alone is not protown.

[ChannelDelibird]

In fact, unless I'm missing something, it's ALWAYS quicker to lynch scum in this game than it is to win by grid. It's at best a way of deciding between two equally scummy people but more than not a distraction, I think.

[ChannelDelibird]

If we hunt properly we can lynch them before they do that. Grid does not trump scumminess today in any way.

[ChannelDelibird]

What I'm worried about here is how we go about framing our discussion today. If we look for scum to fit an optimal grid pattern, confirmation bias becomes more of an issue, we start looking for pairs that would help to be there rather than the pairs that actually are there. I'm not saying my scumhunting is infallible (far from it) but yes, I think that if we look for scum, not a puzzle piece, we should be able to find it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Delayed my morning read because of being asleep. Getting back to it shortly.

[ChannelDelibird]

Right. Hell with this. I've been too slow. This is happening now. I'm-a go through everything, get some reads and a nice juicy vote. Sorry it's taken so long. We are GO.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK. I started my readthrough by picking out specific posts on which to comment and kinda got looser with that policy as I went on, as a result of getting confident enough in my reads not to have to pick things out.

The key notes

TOWN

Molla - I had some early worries but his vote in #70 and his fakehammer attempt strongly suggest to me mollatown.
serra - I've not always loved what he's said (#29 seemed like something that scum would love to be able to say) but I think #97 is a good enough example of a level-headed town mindset, plus I have enough other scumreads, that I'm not interested in touching him today.
Mitillos - His #53 is probably my favourite vote in the game up until now. Confident but not cocky and going out there to get things done without fear.

THE REMAINING SCUMPOOL

The scumdar is pinging for me on all three to various extents.
Bitmap - #54 is the biggest scumpost in the game so far. Mitillos's #53 seems to have stirred a serious reaction but, crucially, Bitmap does not follow up on this. Mitillos doesn't answer the question of "Wtf is this shit?" and Bitmap seems OK with that. It doesn't make sense to me, considering the instinctual nature of the vote. I just don't understand why townBitmap would completely let this go.
Rondar - in #37, he votes molla as "self-explanatory read-wise" despite the fact that he is looking at three other corner players and only describes one as town, with molla one of two "little to null". I don't understand that and nobody picks up on it. His behaviour around Siv feels quite like confident scum capitalising on a linguistic error.
Saporo - We've heard very, very little from saporo and she seems comfortable lurking. Inclined to think that if there two non-saporo scum in the game, one of them would have called her out more seriously.

It's close, but my order of confidence in scumreads is Bitmap > saporo > Rondar, though I'm kinda fuzzy on the last two. I get a definite feeling that bitmap is posting to be seen more than he is posting to achieve any particular protown goal. I am also thoroughly unimpressed by the vote on molla.

VOTE: Bitmap

[ChannelDelibird]

Worth noting that saporovirus has made five posts.

[ChannelDelibird]

The expectation of being killed tonight, are you saying? I don't think it's particularly indicative either way in and of itself.

[ChannelDelibird]

^5

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not lynching a townread for the board.

[ChannelDelibird]

And, er, hang on but an X on molla and a nought on Bitmap gets us nowhere on the board.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh no, hang on, I get what you're saying. Thinking a bit more on it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck, I actually have to get deeply analytical about this. I had hoped the board would be more of a throwaway mechanic than this.

Sigh. Working on it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, I'll try to do as much of the thinking off-thread as I can, but I'm pretty sure I need to think it through myself rather than take stats as read. Just how I learn things better.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, I wrote up a bunch of permutations which I think are best to keep to myself but, based on my reads and how which of the realistic lynches have which potential for screwing town over in which ways, a molla lynch suits me best.

Consider this intent to hammer but I'd really like to hear once from Mitillos, Bitmap and saporo before I do so. (Sorry, Rondar, but I'm less fussed about whether you get a word in edgeways this time. Nowt personal.) I would be disappointed if a hammer came before those three posted.

[ChannelDelibird]

I considered a sapo lynch alongside molla and Bitmap, serra. I still prefer the outcomes of a molla lynch.

I am now ready to hammer but will refrain for now until Mitillos is more happy with the amount of discussion.

[ChannelDelibird]

As of right now, I'd vote Rondar out of {Rondar, Mitillos, serra}.

[ChannelDelibird]

Bitmap certainly isn't making me doubt my scumread at all.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck it.

UNVOTE: Bitmap
VOTE: BBmolla

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh, fuck, yeah, Bitmap moved his vote. I don't care, though. I'm happy with my reads and the day is dragging.

[ChannelDelibird]

As I've said, Mitillos, my operating theory is Bitmap-sapo.

[ChannelDelibird]

If we lynch molla:
Bitmap is NKed
If one of the two is scum:
Day 3: We choose between lynching saporo or anyone else (if we lynch anyone else and are wrong, saporo is NKed and we lose regardless of her alignment)

If we lynch me:
saporo is NKed
If one of the two is scum:
Day 3: We choose between lynching Bitmap or anyone else (if we lynch anyone else and are wrong, Bitmap is NKed and we lose regardless of his alignment)

So from my POV they're pretty much equal because whichever one of Bitmap/saporo doesn't get NKed tonight, I want us to lynch tomorrow. For me, lynching molla has the added benefit of having me alive tomorrow to make sure we follow through with a saporo lynch, so I marginally prefer that one, but yes, I am my own second choice for today's lynch if everyone else would prefer me over molla.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not lost interest at all but just waiting for anybody else do anything (and/or the deadline to run out). I'm happy with the direction in which we are headed.

[ChannelDelibird]

I know. But I was approaching 48 hours without a post.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hmm, that's an interesting post, although I wouldn't put it past sapo's play in this game for her to be scum oblivious to the permutations.

If it came down to a Rondar/Serra/Mitillos LyLo, however, I'd plump for Rondar. 325 is one to think about but could well be Rondarscum getting ahead of the curve while nobody's thinking about it and trying to earn townpoints. Luckily I won't have to make the decision if it comes to that =)

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: saporovirus

Pretty much agreed - can't see a sapotown situation.

[ChannelDelibird]

No.

[ChannelDelibird]

Ah well. I would have voted Rondar probably but being the kingmaking townie in LyLo does horrible things to your head. Well played, scum.