Micro 181: Everyone's being watched (Game Over)

[Egg]

Hey. I've done some reading but not all of it yet.

The wagon on miss destroyer is shit.

The one on Rach is kinda bad too but not as bad as the other one.

Mala is scum. Probably with wisdom.

I'm gonna hold off on voting though.

Grim is also town as fuck.

[Egg]

Almost forgot. Did I miss any claims or anything?

[Egg]

Why is Miss D town, Egg?

Meta

[Egg]

You guess?

Really?

Are you implying that instead of VT it, could mean they are claiming scum???

There are two town power roles in this setup. One is dead. Obviously it's a VT claim.

Also, learn to meta better.

[Egg]

I don't think it's strategic lurking. That makes it null.

[Egg]

Rach, strategic lurking and inadvertant lurking have different feels to them. It's pretty easy to tell the difference once you learn how to differentiate.

Wisdom, there's our problem then. We are looking at meta from opposite heads of the hydra.

[Egg]

GET YOUR VOTES OFF RACH!!!

How the fuck is that a scum slip? It's the exact opposite. She's now obvtown. Look at the confidence she has in the fact that SOMEONE ELSE also visited! Scum wouldn't take the gamble that the watcher comes out and says "uh, no. It was only you". I mean crafty scum would but this is Rach. Look how genuine she is in saying she breifly forgot she visited someone. She is town and should never be lynched.

Destroyer is town as fuck too. For those saying he's normally active, this is kind of true. His activity comes in spurts. He'll go away for a bit and then come back and post 12 times a page for a few pages. Then if the game is fast, he goes away again. If it's slow, he'll stick around. But as far as this game, when he's actually here, look at his specific posts and show me scum intent. It's not there. And if he was scum, it would be. I've never played with the other head so I can't meta it.

Now look at Mala. Sure, she's posting. She's active. But she's doing what is popular and won't stick out. Even from the very beginning of the game. She "likes" my slot at the very beginning. At that point, so does everyone else. And her language doesn't suggest a firm stance that will stick. She votes zionite early on and gives reasons, but the vote is because he's willing to unvote for a "compromise". Go back and look at zi's post. It's not that serious. Then she goes after the first thing to stick out. Bo's L-1 vote. Come on, he obviously just wanted reactions. Mala is smart enough to know this. She's also smart enough to know that it could gain traction if she shows issue with it. Same idea as the Bo thing when she points out that fuzzy seems "different". More active and giving opinions. Yes, he's gaining experience. That's why he's different. Should be easy to pick up when you've played a newbie game or two and can spot a newbie from a player who is transitioning out of newbiness. Then there's the thing where she votes miss destroyer for something dumb and then when it's pointed out that it's dumb, "oops, I misread". She's just muddying the waters wherever she can on anyone that might be a lynch target. This isn't genuine scumhunting. And this is a player who knows how to scumhunt so I don't buy this play at all.

vote mala

Let's get this day headed in the right direction.

[Egg]

Grim, sorry I was rushing. Made that post on my 15 min break at work. Thought my second paragraph addressed that but looking back I didn't really say all I wanted to about that. Basically, intentional lurking comes with pord dodges, empty promises to catch up, active lurking through throwaway comments or fluff, etc. I don't see that in his posts. Also, any player can be hit with periods of inactivity. It depends on their free time and the pace of the game. I've been the most active player in some games and unable to keep up in others as both alignments. This is also true for most people who have been on site for any somewhat lengthy amount of time. I also don't normally consider lurking a tell without evidence in the player's meta. That or if they beetlejuice but that's another thing entirely.

I'm gonna need you to explain Rach's confidence that someone else visited Fuzzy if she's scum. Do you think her buddy roleblocked him and she's using watcher results to bus? Because that's the only way that makes sense and even that is a gamble she wouldn't take. There is no way that she, as scum, makes that comment that someone else visited fuzzy without knowing already. I feel like her reaction as scum would be more waiting to see if someone else visited fuzzy. Like she'd be more careful instead of blurting it out like she did.

How is an inability to count votes a scum tell? As town you suddenly can notice votes better? No. It's not a tell at all. There's no way it can even be painted as one. It just doesn't make sense.

To 652, um. What else would she say? If she's a VT who visited fuzzy and thought a watcher had that result on her, what other way can she possibly respond? She's not going to lie. She's not going to ignore it. She's going to be honest and have a mentality of (oh shit, this looks bad). This is Rach we are talking about. That reaction is exactly what he honest reaction looks like. Are you really implying that town should be more worried about a lynch than scum? That she'd be worried to volunteer seemingly incriminating information as scum but would hide it as town? That is the most backwards logic I have ever heard.

Mala, if I'm chainsawing destroyer AND rach, the Mod lied and there are three scum, not two. So there goes that argument right there. Nice use of buzzwords though with that and "deflect". Also, my lack of a read on grim you are referring to is the fact that I called him "town as fuck". Sorry about the lack of a read there. "Town as fuck" is really fencesitty isn't it? No read on wisdom either, right? Oh wait. I called him scum. That's right. Sword is the only player I don't have a strong read on and that's because he replaced Bo, who I'm not quite sure how to read. So your counterpoints of chainsawing and lack of reads are 0 for 2. Let's see what else you have. You disagree with my destroyer read. That's fine. Your opinion is corrupted by the shit that's been spewed in this thread. Well, that or you are the one spewing it. I don't do meta "analysis" by the way. I just take what I remember from past games.

If it comes out that Rach was the only one to visit fuzzy, we'll lynch her. But it's HER CONFIDENCE in that, not mine, that has me so sure she is town. She said someone else visited fuzzy without thinking twice that could be wrong. That's because he died and she visited him as a VT. She wouldn't know someone else visited him if she killed him. It's a genuine confidence that I can't see Rach faking.

I agree with your assessment that Wisdom is rushing to lynch. That's a good distancing comment. Are you willing to bus him today? If so, I'll gladly switch. Otherwise, I want you lynched first.

[Egg]

Mala, that would defeat the purpose. One scum kills fuzzy. The other RBs fuzzy. One gets lynched. That's still a scum down. It doesn't help. I mean it's possible that they did both target him, especially if they picked up some kind of doc crumb, but I doubt they did it to throw off any results because it doesn't do that.

I don't think you understand what a chainsaw is. It's attacking someone who votes your scumbuddy. Like an OMGUS on your buddy's behalf. That means in order for it to be a chainsaw on botth, i'd have to be scum with BOTH destroyer and Rach. There are two scum so that isn't possible.

Grim and Wisdom are strong gut reads. Grim is genuinely trying to find scum. He's actively searching and really seems to be scumhunting. Wisdom seems to want the day to progress and see blood. I feel like he'd be ok with any lynch that isn't him. That's scum thinking.

Who are you asking me about meta wise? Destroyer?

Grim, I mean rach would wait for more info. What exactly is the result? Was someone else seen visiting fuzzy or just her? Who is claiming this result? Is it worth countering? When scum has something claimed against them, more information is their best friend. Why jump to "OMG THIS LOOKS SO BAD BUT I'M VT I SWEAR. LYNCH THE OTHER PERSON" without knowing another person visited fuzzy?

I'll get back to you on the destroyer question. I'm out of time.

[Egg]

He visited mala.

I haven't thouroughly read since my last post. Will do so tomorrow.

[Egg]

Watcher is one shot. if they saw someone else visit fuzzy, they should claim. If they only saw rach visit fuzzy, they should still claim. In both of these cases, they have no shot left and it doesn't matter if they are outted. If no one claims, we can assume the watcher didn't use their ability last night and we have no solid info on Rach except her posts which heavily indicate she's a VT who visited fuzzy.

still, either rach is scum or scum was ballsy enough to lie. That's still pretty valuable info. Give me a bit to decide if I think scum would be that ballsy or not and what it might mean if they were.

[Egg]

Meh. I thought about it and I want everyone to try something. Assume you are the scum who killed fuzzy. Someone says we should claim who we targetted. What do you think? Well...
-you claim you targetted fuzzy
---you get lynched OR
---rach gets lynched then you get lynched
-you lie
---watcher outs you. You're lynched
---watcher didn't use ability. Rach looks bad and you're home free.

So best case falls under the situation where you lied about your target. There is no good situation that comes from town knowing you visited the player who was killed. Therefore, it only makes sense to lie. So I'm going to guess that scum lied.

[Egg]

I was supposed to visit someone and I picked fuzzy at random cause he was the first person to come to mind.

Also ^

Rach clearly didnt think about visiting her scumread
She picked "at random"

This proves that she didn't put a lot of thought into it. It doesn't prove that she's scum. Hell, you'd think that scum WOULD put a lot of thought into who they claim to visit and why.

Tell me you can't see someone who is town and not one to strategize every move seeing it as "well this doesn't really mean anything so I guess I'll visit the first person I think of"

[Egg]

Wisdom, exactly. That's Rach. She's transparent. She doesn't do complex stuff like that. Now you see what I see.

Lol sword. "I coulda died last night. Cuz I'm town, obviously. I don't kill. I coulda died. Do I look town now?"

Also this little back and forth was pointless. You guys basically agree...

[Egg]

Grim, on 665, I still disagree with you. However, it's clearly logic coming from town. I don't want to come off as attacking you or calling you scum because I have a strong town read on you. We've voiced our opinions on Rach and I don't think either of us is going to change our mind on reading the situation where she visited fuzzy and all that. Without a watcher result, we don't really have an answer without a flip...

Wisdom, you have destroyer and mala as scum. How willing would you be to lynch mala today?

Mala, so because I have town reads on Rach and Destroyer, you don't have to respond to my points against you? lol we'll see how far that logic goes. Also, tells from Day 1 don't go away on Day 2. You are trying to brush it off as if it were RVS and it's so much more than that.

Why destroyer is town coming up next

[Egg]

I HAD AN EPIPHANY WHILE I WAS READING THE EARLY GAME AGAIN

VOTE: Zionite

Hey guys, remember when Zionite had an L-1 wagon on him?
Remember when he reacted strongly to everyone's vote?
There's...someone he didn't react to.

I'll give you a hint: their name starts with Mala, and ends with Kittens.

^the whole thing about a big epiphany, let's hint at the buddy and use caps and act like it's all new stuff when someone is at L-1 is TownDestroyer. As scum, he's more likely to just quietly hop on. He makes the mala connection because he thinks zionite will flip scum and he wants people to listen to him on mala because he said it before zi's flip. This post is one of the huge ones why destroyer is town.

Post 413 he says "we're not scum". As scum, he'd probably steer clear of that kind of comment.

416 he shows frustration that mara isn't talking to him. As scum, he wouldn't really need to discuss a whole lot with her unless they were about to claim or something, but they clearly weren't. This shows town because he wants to discuss reads. He even posts reads in that same post showing what was on his mind at the time.
^
Shit, that's mara's post, not human's. Still, you can see the thought process and it's a town one.

603 shows a classic case of genuine town confirmation bias. He had mala and zionite as scum reads and saw connections that obviously weren't there. In 608, he's now doing the same thing with Rach.

Wisdom, if you don't see scumhunting in their ISO, you are blind. Open it up and count the times they give reads and stuff.

[Egg]

You are my top scum read. I'll take anyone's vote on you as a victory. I also want to see how committed he is to that scum read he says he has on you.

Isn't

every

scum read a player has during a game "without a flip"? I'm not seeing where that is relevant here.

Where is this process of elimination thing coming from?

Sword is the one player I'm back and forth on. Mostly because I'm not sure how to read Bo and a lot of his stuff could go either way. I'd probably have him as scum if you or wisdom were to flip town.

By the way, the "m" key on my phone is fucked up so if at any point I have missing or double m's, I apologize.

[Egg]

unvote, vote wisdom

Only two more votes to make this happen.

[Egg]

I skimmed. Wisdom, it doesn't make sense that i'd rather lynch my scum reads than my town reads?

If I was scum why wouldn't I just go "meh, deadine" and vote Rach?

[Egg]

You fucks should have listened to me yesterday and lynched mala instead of Rach.

vote mala

I'll read today's posts on my lunch break.

[Egg]

Grim, as I said before, the wisdom read is gut and his attitude.

Wisdom, why is destroyer the only person you'd lynch if you are considering a me/mala team? If destroyer is scum, who is the buddy?

Actually, with swords flip, you (wisdom) make a good point. She definitely could have blocked him or even rolecopped him leading to last night's kill.

To 881, no, I didn't assume the watcher was blocked. I was guessing that they were scared to claim or didn't use their ability for whatever reason which I actually said.

Ran into someone. But

unvote

cuz LYLO. Will read up later

[Egg]

Wisdom, I like that you are looking at malascum, but I don't see that as picking up doc crumbs. Although the fuzzy kill is weird, so it's definitely possible that someone picked up crumbs somewhere. I just don't think that's it.

Oh and not that anyone was thinking it anyway, but my brief stupidity of laying a vote confirmed Wisdom/Grim isn't a team. They'd have
quickhammered.

Wisdom, what makes you say I'm the "town cred type"? I haven't been scum under the account and I've been accused of going for town cred before. Repeatedly, actually. How is this backed with absolutely zero scum meta to work off of.

Actually, "didn't use their ability" means "didn't use their abilty". It doesn't mean "blocked". Not sure how you are making that leap. Read the quote for what it is, not what you want it to be.

How do we know he was blocked and not rolecopped?

I agree that mala could have visited Bo. I also agree that scum who visited fuzzy lied (obviously. Rach was town so someone is lying). I haven't worked out who that is yet. I think that between you and mala, one used a scum power role on Bo and the other killed fuzzy. That's my guess right now. But I admit I have a lot to look at still.

[Egg]

Yeah, I still don't see why he was definitely blocked. You would have used the ability Night 1. So would I. I don't know if Bo would/did.

Wisdom, I'm not gonna argue too much about your mala point because I think she's scum too so whatever.

If I'm bussing mala, does that mean we can lynch her today?

Mala, I don't know if/when fuzzy crumbed. I was speculating that it's possible he did because the kill seemed weird and he flipped doc.

I unvoted when I realized it was LYLO.

I have strong town reads on Grim and Destroyer. True, they could be scum. But i'd rather lynch my scum reads than my town reads because my reads tend to be pretty damn good. And we lynched one of my town reads yesterday. How'd that work out?

[Egg]

So I was right about both Day 2 wagons being town. I was right on Mala. Grim just had me fooled.

Good game.

Oh and mala, I didn't forget it was LYLO. Just never realized it. It's a micro and I replaced in on Day 2 so it didn't feel like the game was almost over yet.

Even if we lynched mala, grim wasn't getting lynched so this game was already won.

[Egg]

Actually, good point.

But...

If he killed me, it makes you look bad.

Kill you, I look bad.

Kill destroyer, it looks like I'm trying to build up my reads.

So... nothing really points to him there.

[Egg]

And even if he killed you, i'd probably have second guessed destroyer before grim.