Micro 200 - Two Chances (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 11:55 am

Post by DrDolittle »

VOTE: dbk
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Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:53 pm

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^ nah. Scum has no nightkills. I
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Post Post #11 (isolation #2) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:57 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

@DBK: two and a half
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Post Post #13 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:12 pm

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^ I don't want to answer that as it may inadvertently give scum strategies to employ.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:30 am

Post by DrDolittle »

Vote: Xegarus

Sheeping Empking. Actually, I don't see anything scummy from anyone.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #5) » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:31 am

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 16, Does Bo Know wrote:
In post 10, DrDolittle wrote:^ nah. Scum has no nightkills. I
What does this have to do with what JK said in the above post?
everything.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 11, 2013 2:59 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 40, Does Bo Know wrote: 1) So you don't see anything scummy from Xegarus?

2) And why does that have "everything" to do with JK's RVS theory? I'm asking, because it seems to me like there was absolutely no reason to say scum have no night kills (unless you plan on explaining), yet that was what came to your mind.
1) Nop. As i said. Sheeping Empking

2) It's obvious if you really think about it. I was going to expand, see the extra "I", but then I decided to let it be.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:50 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

empking looks like he knows what he's doing
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Post Post #68 (isolation #8) » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:18 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 56, Madi wrote:@DBK

Do you believe discussing a set L-2 this early on is pointless? Do you not wish to get into the root as of why that action happens during this stage of the game?

- Shadi
The root is that this game has 7 players.
In post 59, Xegarus wrote: @Dr
So you are sheeping for the sake of sheeping. Most times i've seen people sheep, they usually agree with the shepard. You flatout said that you don't agree and then sheeped.
VOTE: Dr
If I agree with the shepard, then I'm not sheeping. Via wiki
Sheeping is the act of following a ... popular player with no independent intent
Players who are frequently sheeped tend to be known as good scum hunters... .
Players who frequently sheep tend to be players who ... have no independent idea of what to do.
which is exactly what I am doing right now
In post 65, Blue Yoshi wrote:
DrD is definitely pulling something interesting, but it also seems he's just kinda coasting to a lynch. Especially with his attitude about not thinking Xeg is scummy, but voting him anyways.
I've been coasting 3 pages, but that's nowhere near a lynch.
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Post Post #88 (isolation #9) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:22 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

DBK scum looks good.
#49, 58, 79 reeks of coaching Madi, which is a good scum-potential from his posting of nothingness.
"That's if Xeg is scum. Which I'm doubting right now, looking at your argument."
If Xeg is town, there would definitedly be more pressure on him, considering that I know I'm town, and Emp is obvtown (scum emp has no motive to bring up the case so Thoroughly). Any of the three scums would love to jump on this.

So, I'm basically outlining a DBK - Madi - Xeg scum team.

With that said, Hitting scum is not hard. If we vote completely randomly, we have about a 3/4 probabilty to end up with at worst 4 town with two nights of investigation results and 1 confimed vs 2 scum with no nightkills. Right now, Empking's reasons doesn't set off any warning bells for me, and no one presents a better case on someone else. So skewedly right now, Xeg has a greater than 50% chance of being scum in my books. Therefore my vote stays.
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Post Post #91 (isolation #10) » Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:52 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 89, Does Bo Know wrote:Dolittle's reason for Emp obvtown is
crap
excellent.
Fixed.

BTW - if it is Xegtown, why are there not more votes?
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Post Post #95 (isolation #11) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:03 am

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Oh so now its from one of us to both of us. Hmmmm. I think you're too naive.

Lawl Xeg. Do you really want to conf-town a useless guy? I think this warrents a full lynch now. Yes, you're scum. Also Policy in such a puny game is pathetically scummy. DBK vote your scum buddy for town points.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #12) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:51 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 107, Madi wrote: Hydra dissonance is not necessarily a bad thing.

Me (Shadi) has not yet given reads and that's what I wanted to highlight to you; I think it's pretty common to not have united reads but I guess we'll come with a list later.

- Shadi
After all the hectic arguments all you can say is this?
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Post Post #109 (isolation #13) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:54 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 97, Does Bo Know wrote:Meh, I've always thought you both were scum, mainly because I think Xeg is town and that if you two weren't scum, there would've been at least another vote on Xeg by now.
That's got to be the most -------- thing. Do you really think a three man scum team would all vote for one guy? No WIFOM, but really.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #14) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:55 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Actually the fact that no one is jumping is making me more convinced of Xegscum (rather than empking's arguements).
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Post Post #115 (isolation #15) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:56 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

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Post Post #116 (isolation #16) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:06 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 111, Does Bo Know wrote:Meh, I've always thought you both were scum, mainly because I think Xeg is town and that if you two weren't scum, there would've been at least another vote on Xeg by now.
By bad. I read it as such. "I think Xeg is town and that if you two
were
scum." I guess it felt more natural reading.
Anyhow, Show me why Xeg is town. Because if Xeg is not town, which is probably true, then this argument doesn't hold at all.

And as I said. I think that Emp is town. I know I am town fo' shizzle. Therefore by logic similar to yours, If Xeg is town, there would be at least another vote on Xeg by now.

However, by guess is better than yours because you have to estimate the alignment of 3 people, while I, only 2.
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Post Post #118 (isolation #17) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:37 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 117, Xegarus wrote:That leaves 2 town and 2 scum. And the mere fact that these 4 are not voting me at all is further proof, to you better evidence than emps baseless argument you still have yet to explain with me, that I'm scum.
Two town not vote because they are not here or they don't see the beauty in the argument. Two scum don't want to bus. Makes perfect sense. You're right. I'm not 100% sold on empking's argument. But it's the best one out there, and I don't find your responses sufficiently adequete.

Your perspective is good but one thing doesn't hold. I know I'm town.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #18) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:32 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

This is silly. Empking's arguments are good. I'm not going to preach cause I ain't no Jesus. And this also is supported with my numbers. I don't see why my vote is invalid.
I'm saying that Xeg's perspective 117, specifically when he says "This is my perspective" makes sense. Except its not true because I'm town. I don't need to convince anyone that I'm not scum - My theories are all completely valid. You DBK agrees with my theory makes sense, yet you place me below Maki is appalling.



Here is Maki. 3rd scum lets go
"DrDolittle's arguments are weak and I've yet to see any good reasons to vote you"
"Also I think Dr. or Emp is scum, not sure who as of now"
"Drdolittle is a bit scummy for me, putting someone to L-2 for no "reason", though granted there are still 2 votes to go, it still seems a bit scummish."
So You think I'm scum, but voting me is not good eh?
Other than that there is no scum hunting whatsoever - rather commenting on people's activities. Wut?

SO BAD.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #19) » Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:36 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Also get an avatar madi.
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Post Post #130 (isolation #20) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:59 am

Post by DrDolittle »

PLZ HYDRA CANT B LYNCH3D CAUS3 THEY HAEV DIFARENT OPINIONS!1!1! OMG WTF LOL
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Post Post #131 (isolation #21) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:06 am

Post by DrDolittle »

What I am doing is scum hunting. I am helping town. And I'm doing good. Emp has been scum hunting. He is helping town. And Hh's doing good. You have not been scum hunting. You have been OMGUSing. You have been deflecting. The votes on your don't makes sense if you are town. You're not doing good.

I did sheep at first. But the vote is good before. Now its better.

You say emp is scummy. I think emp is town. What bro. why does only your opinion count. Oh wait. You're scum. Stop confusing me.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #22) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:53 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 128, Madi wrote: You confuse Shadi's points with mine, get your facts straight and start analysing us as different people as we haven't been talking at all about this game yet.
is equivalent to
In post 130, DrDolittle wrote:PLZ HYDRA CANT B LYNCH3D CAUS3 THEY HAEV DIFARENT OPINIONS!1!1! OMG WTF LOL
Playing as a hydra does not give you a get out of jail for free card. You have two voices, therefore, you must deal the inconsistencies. Not me. If not, fuck off and don't play the hydra.
the reason I voted him is because he's a freaking annoying person
This is terribad. You vote for people because they are scum. Not because they are annoying or stupid. I think you're stupid. But I'll only vote you because you're scum. So far you provided no content on anyone being scum, posted loads of fluff, and did generally nothing.

Also, I'm not being hypocritical. I'm fine with people voting me because of my posts. Makaviel is not.

@JK. What about the hydra?
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Post Post #141 (isolation #23) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:28 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

I see you signed maki so I wrote maki. besides maki madi, close enough . I don't see what's the big deal. why am i scum?
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Post Post #142 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:45 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Nvm look at this.
I'm not discounting that given that scum can talk whenever
I did a doubletake when I saw this. So I went back to check the role PMs. And indeed it says that scum can talk whenever. But actually, an average player would not read the first post containing the role PM - since the setup is open, they would have already visited the wiki page to know the setup before signing up. Furthermore, standard Mafia games, scum can only talk at night. As JKM said this so matter of factly - he's most likely scum.

VOTE: JKM
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Post Post #145 (isolation #25) » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:08 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

laugh all you want. its solid
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Post Post #163 (isolation #26) » Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:48 pm

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hurr durr. ^ did you know know that scum had day talk? Cause that some fucking news to me.
"I don't like my opinion to be confused with someone else's "
Why the fuck are you playing a hydra then?
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Post Post #172 (isolation #27) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:47 am

Post by DrDolittle »

No shit Dr.Do stands out.
“ trying too hard to lead us astray”
Where?
" He agrees with Emp, but he says before that that he was sheeping, then claims he's not sheeping anymore and agrees with Empking's reasoning"
"he goes voting someone for knowing the SCUMS HAD DAYTALK"
What is the scum motivation?

Calling someone retarded and stupid over and over again is not going to convince anyone. That's why you're not dead yet.
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Post Post #183 (isolation #28) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 2:41 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Eh this is appalling. I guess I was the only one who didn't know scum has daytalk and overreacted? :igmeou:
UNVOTE:
I need to gather thought.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #29) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 2:42 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

DBK why is evil town.
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Post Post #186 (isolation #30) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:19 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

"Well really why did you think JKMatthews was scum?" See 142
"Why did you unvote?" See 183

Evil. Who's not scum?
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Post Post #189 (isolation #31) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:26 pm

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ok mr. nitpick: back to check as in i went back to the first page and checked. and now i have to go back and check if jkm is a semi-new player as well, cause that's again news to me.
" You berate someone for reading the first post for roles and everything,"
it was surprising that jkm (and now also everyone) read posts 1 - 3.
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Post Post #191 (isolation #32) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:27 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

i dont see anything that hints town here
"
I can understand the not voting due to being a hydra, but why are you trying to tell someone to look at your posts in two different slots. You are a hydra you have no right to tell someone not to read your posts how they are. It's your responsibility to interact with your partner and if you guys disagree currently without discussing it gives you guys an out if you make a mistake.

I do not like the tone of #140. You find him scummy, but what was the need to add the extra un-needed tone along with the fact part of the post sounds like you are getting into a slight overlap on wanting to policy lynch him.

Why did you call out Does Bo Know for a very similar agrument that DrDolittle made towards Xegarus. Do you agree with what Does Bo Know has said?"

why is madi town?
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Post Post #193 (isolation #33) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:29 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Two_Chances
does it say scum has daytalk here champ? also 183 has three lines. you read only 2
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Post Post #194 (isolation #34) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:30 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

how do i know if jkm is a newer player. unless im in newbie game, i look at every player equally see 189
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Post Post #197 (isolation #35) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:34 pm

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"because I disagree with someone for their un-needed tone does not mean I think they are scum" i just wanted you to lay out why you thought madi is town

"Madi is applying pressure and they are actually scum-hunting"

wut? where is the pressure? is it on me? cause calling people stupid aint no pressure. also that seems to be the exact opposite as dbk is saying. comments?
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Post Post #199 (isolation #36) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:36 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

i think the wiki lays things out pretty clear, sport.

i'm sorry that i don't search people's other games before attacking him. i guess lacking courtesy?
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Post Post #201 (isolation #37) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:46 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

I don't see how you find someone scummy because they didn't read the roles/PM section of IceGuy's thread, but instead read the wiki part.

your username is too long and its two words. what do you think about 'cowboy'?
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Post Post #202 (isolation #38) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 3:46 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

also i though these terms mean endearment in english. you should be flattered
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Post Post #212 (isolation #39) » Sat Jul 20, 2013 3:05 am

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 211, Does Bo Know wrote:I'm voting Blue Yoshi, because there's not really a situation I can visualize where he isn't scum, through possible Mafia teams.
don't get. pls explain.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #40) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:55 am

Post by DrDolittle »

DBK: I like your idea.
Realistically, can you quickly make another spreadsheet, adding yourself and not marking off evil using the best of conscience? Because 5 people sample is pretty flawed.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #41) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:04 am

Post by DrDolittle »

" I know I'm more townie than Evil is, for obvious reasons."
That's why I said realistically.

"what do you think of Empking's latest switch?"
I have a thought but I want to hold the opinion until I see the chart if that is O.K.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #42) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:05 am

Post by DrDolittle »

" You still wanna see my own spreadsheet with my own logic of eliminating partners?"
No just the spreadsheet would be fine
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Post Post #239 (isolation #43) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:12 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I don't quite understand. I guess I want to see finished product and not the template?
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Post Post #241 (isolation #44) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:15 am

Post by DrDolittle »

Eh I mean if you can fill it to the best of your opinion.
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Post Post #243 (isolation #45) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:30 am

Post by DrDolittle »

Image
Red: Likely
Green: Null
Black: Unlikely
Black with x: Ignore

I tried to be as objective as possible
Tell me what do you guys think.
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Post Post #279 (isolation #46) » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:49 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Yesterday my internet jumped. Anyways. here's our differences.

I see we differ on 4 accounts.

1) Emp-Madi (I have likely partners, you have null)
Although Madi strictly supports Xeg town, he only barely mentions Empking's arguments in 121, but rather focuses on me. He did state that Empking is one of his top scum reads, so no further mentions surprise me. Empking defends Madi quite a bit earlier on for something that I don't quite understand. I feel that your logic Madi-scum would jump on town-Xeg with Emp-scum inadequete, as putting someone on L-1 that early in the game without a very solid reason attracts unwanted scum attention.

2) Emp -Evil (I have likely partners, you have unlikely)
Both Evil and JKM exibit the same attitude as Madi in Emp & DrDo vs Xeg. Furthermore, Evil 1st post 179 seems a bit too friendly for voting. According to that post, both Madi and I seem more scummy than Emp, however evil reiterates that he thinks Emp is scum 187. The reasons being "fence-sitting" and "Passive" which is hardly substancial. It feels like distancing

3) Evil-DBK (I have likely, you have null)
At first I felt that DBK-evil alliance is pretty good based on DBK wishywashing on evil recently. However rereading, it seems that this is null based on JKM's first vote which seems genuine, and the first paragraph of 200 seems reasonable.

4) DrDo - DBK
Let's be honest. DrDo is not the towniest player out there. DBK placing DrDo this high on the no lynch list - even with the 'genuine' and what not, is highly strange. Furthermore, DrDo has barely mentioned DBK's alignment at all.
However, one thing that goes in DrDo - DBK non buddies favor is that these two players are conversing regularly and normally, which makes me think that they don't have the daychat ability

Will address Abasta laster.
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Post Post #281 (isolation #47) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 4:14 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I think Madi is more scum than Emp (based on both my spreadsheet and anaylsis).
VOTE: Madi

Absta, where would your vote go right now?
I think PoE for lynching is BAD - especially as he eliminated 2 players, but I don't quite think its scummy. However, you do have both Madi and Emp as scum reads, and both are at L-1.

Everyone else. Comments on the spreadsheet - agreements/disagreements? You guys should make your own as I think its pretty significant.
A very interesting part about the spreadsheet (and I'm not saying that because in my sheet I have the most black squares - its just a note that you could take into consideration): Black squares are statistically more town:
Black square: town-scum, town-town, scum-town: a player is 2/3 likely to be town
Red square: town-town, scum-scum: 1/2 chance to be town
Green square: all 4 possibilities: 1/2 chance to be town.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #48) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:00 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Hey i thought you guys all read the role PMs.
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Post Post #306 (isolation #49) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:00 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

dicks.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #50) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:05 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Also this suggesting this following thing is extremely scummy. Even if scum can only target town, as long as two scum lines up, the investigation is mucked. There is a pretty good chance that two scum will line up - especially if Emp flips town, which I highly suspect.

Don't hammer Emp.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #51) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:09 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

also one positive on town is worse than no positive.
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Post Post #309 (isolation #52) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:12 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

by the way at least any two scum lining up in a 3v3 6 people circle is 19/20.
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Post Post #311 (isolation #53) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:14 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

eh that was refering to xeg's rolling investigation. cut me a break, didnt sleep yesterday. The following thing refers to the following investigation strategy thing.
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Post Post #312 (isolation #54) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:15 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

way to derail off topic.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #55) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:30 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

My fault. Jeering at an obvious grammatica flaw is obviously on topic.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #56) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:32 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

OK what the fuck is this:

"This means that Scum A fakes viewing Scum B while Scum B fakes viewing the next Scum who then fakes viewing the next player and most probably also intimidates that town. "

Intimidation is a factional ability.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #57) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:35 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 37, IceGuy wrote:I made a mistake when formulating the role PMs: I accidentally put the "Intimidation" ability into the individual instead of the factional abilities.

To clarify: the Intimidation is a factional ability and has to be performed by one scum player only.

OK. So I don't know how Xeg got the idea that intimidate is not factional. Judging by this I conclude that he read his scum PM and missed this post. Otherwise, via any sources, town would know that intimidate is factional.

VOTE: Xeg
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Post Post #317 (isolation #58) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:36 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

No Xeg is scum. lynch him pls.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #59) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:47 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Oh so when I say that
Evil: "Where did you pull this from? Your Mafia QT?"
But when Xeg says that
Evil: "I think this plan is okay"

I don't see any reason why Evil is a town read for so many poeople
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Post Post #321 (isolation #60) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:55 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

goddamn abasta wouldnt compromise a xeg lynch now.
VOTE: madi
pls don't lynch obv town.
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Post Post #322 (isolation #61) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:56 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

actually if we kill emp now and he flips town, we can all sheep him and that'd still be cool.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #62) » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:57 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

322 is quality
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Post Post #337 (isolation #63) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:23 am

Post by DrDolittle »

no the list is a shit idea.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #64) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:41 am

Post by DrDolittle »

First, Empking is town. So Empking is town
As long as two scum line up, rather than 3, in your list of 7, scum can muck up the investigation so that at most a townie ends up investigated. The probability in a random line up that 3 two scum line up is 31/35. 31 out of fucking 35. and you still maintain its a good idea?
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Post Post #342 (isolation #65) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:43 am

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 341, DrDolittle wrote:First, Empking is town. So Empking is town
As long as two scum line up, rather than 3, in your list of 7, scum can muck up the investigation so that at most a townie ends up investigated
positive
. The probability in a random line up that
3
two scum line up is 31/35. 31 out of fucking 35. and you still maintain its a good idea?
sorry typed too fast
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Post Post #345 (isolation #66) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:12 am

Post by DrDolittle »

Just read the last three pages. Do you see any scum motivation? In fact, do the whole Emp ISO - There is no scum motivation lying behind any actions.

Re: Madi-vote, voting based on a spreadsheet is perfected reasonable. I voted partically regarding the spreadsheet. DBK also voted partically regarding the spreadsheet. The fact that all three of us reached the same conclusion, based on abasta's reasoning, is that we are all scum?

Now, onto "plan". If Empking is town, to NOT reach your worst case senario, it would be less likely than throwing a dice and hoping a six comes up. Even if all three/two scum (which empking is scum) are kept separated (your best case senario), what if the scum claims that the townie which has been intimidated was not intimidated? So we'd still just have 1 guilty that is unverificable in any means


However, if the investigation is kept arbitrary, then even if there is big holes scum can not plan for it. If we can catch scum trapped in the outlayer, we've got scum. So essentially, we are putting this chance in our own judgements instead of putting the chance as luck prescribed by some list. Another benefit would be the mass results phase tomorrow, for which we could get contradictory results. This is the real power of the investigation, rather than the actual results.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #67) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:21 am

Post by DrDolittle »

In post 285, Xegarus wrote:In post 281, DrDolittle wrote:Comments on the spreadsheet - agreements/disagreements?



I'm pretty null on the spreadsheet thing. How you behave towards someone else is different than how it appears to me, to you and to everyone else. What are we basing these likely unlikely statuses on? Absta makes a good point on the unknown alignment thing. All this practically means nothing until an alignment is revealed. I don't think the spreadsheet should be used as reasons to vote for someone as they are completely subjective. Its just a read.
Would you care to make a spreadsheet? I think interpersonal communication is a pretty overt and objective subject. DBK and I differed only on 4 accounts. I would be surprised if your sheet was significantly different.
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Post Post #348 (isolation #68) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 3:49 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I actually prefer if you can do it now as so you can't manipulate your thoughts depending on actually who gets lynched, but I understand if you want to reserve your opinions.

So we have 3 scum 4 town. We use complementary counting to determine probability of no two scum touches.
We have 4! ways to arrange the town in any order.
Then we need to fit the 3 scums in the 4 gaps between the 4 towns in a circle
There are 3! ways to arrange the scums
There are 4 ways that the already arranged scums can fit in the 4 gaps.
Thus there are 4!*3!*4 ways for an arrangement and there are 7! ways in total to place the people.
Thus probability of no two scum touches = 4!*3!*4/7! = 4/35, and probability of there exists two scum touches = 1 - 4/35 = 31/35 > 5/6, which is the dice rolling analogy.
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Post Post #349 (isolation #69) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 3:56 am

Post by DrDolittle »

The only mistake here would probably be the rotation element, so a fix could be as such:

So we have 3 scum 4 town. We use complementary counting to determine probability of no two scum touches. Lets Fix Empking Town so that Rotation errors will not result
We have 3! ways to arrange the other towns in any order.
Then we need to fit the 3 scums in the 4 gaps between the 4 towns in a circle
There are 3! ways to arrange the scums
There are 4 ways that the already arranged scums can fit in the 4 gaps.
Thus there are 3!*3!*4 ways for an arrangement and there are 6! ways in total to place the people (since Emp is fixed).
Thus probability of no two scum touches = 3!*3!*4/6! = 1/5, and probability of there exists two scum touches = 1 - 1/5 = 4/5, which is still pretty significant.
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Post Post #353 (isolation #70) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:34 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

It's not bad at all if we lynch scum today, actually. I think its around 1/5 that scum coud line up.
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Post Post #354 (isolation #71) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:40 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Computation:

Fix DrDo Town at top
Two scum must remain together, so lets count them as 1 person.
There are three other towns and this Together scum, making arrangements 4!.
The scum can interchange order, 2 ways
There are total 5! ways in arranging everyone (ofc with DrDo still fixed at top)
Thus 4!*2/5! = 2/5...

Ehhh, nvm, still isnt that decent.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #72) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:46 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

Actually if we combine the list idea with the spreadsheet, it wouldn't be that. Notably. people who are unlikely to be scum partners should follow one another
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Post Post #358 (isolation #73) » Tue Jul 23, 2013 8:02 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

4 town 3 scum no, but 4 town 2 scum might be worth a shot.
and yeah, that's why i wanted xeg's input.

I too was advocating hidden investigations, but as a compromise to Xeg and Abasta, this is the best idea I can come up with.
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Post Post #367 (isolation #74) » Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:04 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I've already stated why following an arbitrary list is a terrible idea in both a town or scum flip.
"our best plan to catch any contradictions would be to make the scummiest players reveal their actions first either using a list or the popcorn technique"
This is still terrible - I will outline why tomorrow as it is not the priority right now.
"They're both not influenced by any personal opinions unlike DBK's list."
Again I disagree. Personal opinions in this case, is a good thing as it can tilt the odds in the town's favor. Tell me why you disagree with the list order rather than saying that it is biased.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #75) » Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:26 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I don't get your logic.
Look at this. Suppose that there are 4 players A, B, C, D.
Lets say
Likely
(A,B), (C,D)
Unlikely
(A,C), (A,D), (B,D)
Null
(B,C)

The natural investigation would be to first separate out the likely scum partners and the null if possible. Thus the order would be (A -> C -> B -> D -> A). Thus scum is unlikely to have two people aligned. This has nothing to be with flips, and nothing to do with whether the proposer is town or scum. The only fact that you may be worried about is if you agree with whether pairs are likely or unlikely, which I fail to see you comment on.

Anyways, I will be clear, even if majority choses to follow your or Xeg's random order, I will make sure not to follow it.
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Post Post #374 (isolation #76) » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:55 am

Post by DrDolittle »

quickpost.
"Not going to negotiate at all?"
Nope. 2/5 is not good odds for me.
"completely breaks the point of having a list at all."
Following the list is good for scum, so good.
"It could potentially be a biased list. "
" Personal opinions in this case, is a good thing as it can tilt the odds in the town's favor. Tell me why you disagree with the list order rather than saying that it is biased."

"Well, I rarely switch account that's mainly why.

- Shadi”

Thanks for the insightful post. The town is eternally grateful and will now use this post to lynch scum appropriatedly.


It is based on interactions and conjecture.
"That's why I'm asking for everyone's input to see if we can come up with a final one depending on who we lynch.“
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Post Post #382 (isolation #77) » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:00 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

"These subjective, baseless spreadsheets that tell us nothing."
Are reads are subjective. These sheets are not baseless though, unlike your town read on Madi.

"60% is potentially better than ?%"
I won't do a quick computation now, but random has higher chances of investigating scum.

Spread Sheets are god.

"I don't see why DrDolittle has such a vendetta against this. It will more likely benefit the town, but he doesn't see that."
I clearly see what I see. These list may be random, but this as scum you would already know which is favorable which is not. So you won't be suggesting if its not in your favor. Whereas the spreadsheet uses all evidence on the table. you can see I can see everyone can see interaction.

"I think we should have the two most town players both view someone who we think has the higher of chance of being scum and then have a scummy player direct an action to the town."
I say Empking and I are two most town, but it seems you clearly disagree,

"I don't see why DrDolittle has such a vendetta against this. It will more likely benefit the town, but he doesn't see that."
What I clearly don't see is how you guys are so oblivious to the pitfalls of this method. It is retarded. Furthermore, since everyone is investigating a different person, there will be no contradictions for investigation results. It won't benefit town. I am not compromising with you terrorists. End of discussion. No lists at all.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #78) » Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:02 am

Post by DrDolittle »

Fine, math.
4 town 2 scum.
A town wont investigate himself. Then the scum can only investigate 5 people. Scum with inspect must be one of the 5.
Now suppose all 4 town misses this scum. We get
(4/5)^4 = 0.4096
Thus at least 1 town investigates scum is 60%. just like your fucking list.

"You said popcorning would be a terrible dea to absta. I think its time you explain."
Where?

" we'll even get contradictions? The majority of us could end up viewing one person."
That's how you get a fucking contradiction.

I don't get how mafia players can be so dense.

I swear to god, if Emp gets lynched and flips town, I am going to sheep him for the rest of this game. I don't know how Madi is getting off this scot free.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #79) » Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:26 am

Post by DrDolittle »

""our best plan to catch any contradictions would be to make the scummiest players reveal their actions first either using a list or the popcorn technique"
This is still terrible - I will outline why tomorrow as it is not the priority right now. "

This? I said I explain tomorrow.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #80) » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:06 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

time to sheep
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Post Post #410 (isolation #81) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:17 am

Post by DrDolittle »

VOTE: abasta
hammer was scummy as shit. I called emp town in like my 3 post. I loved that you immediatedly shifted the attention away from your hammer "I don't how he was so certain Emp was going to flip town." Also I loved that you glossed right off Madi - despite him not posting anything near the lynch - not even questioning him when debating.
Here's how we're going to announce results.
We go popcorn. However, if you have a guilty result, you just say you got guilty and keep quite on who you investigated. People who get guilty say their results after everyone who has got innocents finish saying their results. I'm fine with going first.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #82) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 1:34 am

Post by DrDolittle »

yes
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Post Post #415 (isolation #83) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:04 am

Post by DrDolittle »

You glossed over the fact if you are scum. Which I am 99% sure.

"you were trying to go for town cred with his flip."
Brilliant. I knew emp was going to be lynching in my 3rd post. You got me so good.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #84) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:10 am

Post by DrDolittle »

^ are you insane? is no scum motivation not a convincing reason?
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Post Post #423 (isolation #85) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 4:59 am

Post by DrDolittle »

^ yeah ok as long as clean investigation targets come before guilty investigation.

also im going to hold out everything until the results are put out.

UNVOTE: [\unvote]
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Post Post #424 (isolation #86) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 4:59 am

Post by DrDolittle »

poo.UNVOTE:
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Post Post #442 (isolation #87) » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:24 pm

Post by DrDolittle »

negative -> absta
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Post Post #449 (isolation #88) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 12:27 am

Post by DrDolittle »

I'd prefer that the people who got guilty say their results last - of course, still in front of empking
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Post Post #452 (isolation #89) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:30 am

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Evil was negative
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Post Post #462 (isolation #90) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:17 pm

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Here's a quickpost. In this game, scum will not afford to be caught in a lie. Also scum has sufficient information so that their investigation results correspond to the truth. I don't expect any of the results, whether real or not, are lies.

More importantly, DBK, why did you investigate me?
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Post Post #466 (isolation #91) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:27 pm

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In post 88, DrDolittle wrote:
So, I'm basically outlining a DBK - Madi - Xeg scum team.
This is good.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #92) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:46 pm

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is there a rush? btw, why am I least likely player to be investigated?

Xeg why am I scum - other than saying that empking is town?
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Post Post #470 (isolation #93) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:06 pm

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um I want to see if post 88 holds. also on phone. voting people is difficult due to bbtags
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Post Post #472 (isolation #94) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:10 pm

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i thought 462 obviously implies that madi or i is scum, especially since it address directly 460.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #95) » Tue Jul 30, 2013 4:17 pm

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"One of them HAS to be scum if everyone is telling the truth."
"In this game, scum will not afford to be caught in a lie. Also scum has sufficient information so that their investigation results correspond to the truth. I don't expect any of the results, whether real or not, are lies. "

Hows this?
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Post Post #486 (isolation #96) » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:48 am

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gj scum

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