Micro 224: 2nd Chance Draw Mafia (A Winner Already?!)

[ac1983fan]

VOTE: venrob
wagon wagon wagon

[ac1983fan]

@Venrob, are you kidding? L-2 wagons on page one are deliciously good because they lead to overreactions and overreactions lead us out of RVS.

@BvD actually the ac in my username stands for animal crossing and the 1983 is the year I pretended to be born in until I was old enough to actually make accounts on the interwebs.

[ac1983fan]

EBWOP: Of course it submits the message while I'm still typing....

I am L-2 in the first 3 posts. Not good.

Did you think you were actually going to get quicklynched, or is this an attempt to be too scummy to be scum? Do you think there was scum on your wagon at its peak?

ac1983fan, you say early L-2 wagons are good to gauge (over)reactions. So what do you think of Venrob's reaction?

Disappointing, he should have freaked out a bit more. People freaking out is the best way to leave RVS.

[ac1983fan]

venrob this is my reaction to your latest post

But you're probably town for it
UNVOTE:

VOTE: Deasvail
This is just gut but I don't see anything town in DV's posts

[ac1983fan]

ac, I asked you a question. Refer to the top of the page, please.

I know I just was gonna respond and then I got busy and then I forgot lol

ac, if you do in fact like wagons as an RVS-ending tool, then why did you criticize Venrob for disliking his wagon before he could answer my question? We missed out on getting a solid town or scum tell on him depending on how he answered.

Because what could have possibly been gained from his answer to that question? Like he would have either said "because I'm town" or "because it's too early to be lynching someone". Neither of those statements is a tell w.r.t. alignment but rather only experience.

[ac1983fan]

@ac: explain how 51 makes venrob town.

it's so foolish, it just seems like it has to be honest.

[ac1983fan]

Venrob's thought processes are off-kilter by his own admission. I don't think making a weird case should necessarily be a towntell.

Maybe you're correct, but until I see evidence otherwise my read isn't going to change.

[ac1983fan]

So the moment Serra points out the existence of an AC wagon, you move your vote off said wagon? Interesting.

--Buffy

I was waiting for someone to point that out. That is how it looks, isn't it? Luckily I don't care how it looks. ^^

I'm not sure if this is nervous scum trying too hard to look town or nervous town trying too hard to look town.

[ac1983fan]

Venrob, being v/la doesn't necessarily exempt you from being prodded, it just means mods might be less likely to replace you. Also yelling at the mod for doing his job is just really poor form dude.

[ac1983fan]

This may or may not be a prod dodge. Anyone wanna vote DV with me?

My vote is on DV atm.

[ac1983fan]

Ac1983fan, what are your thoughts on the conflict between serra and me?

Well, I have a gut scumread on you, and serra isn't playing any differently than the one town game I played with him, so yeah.

[ac1983fan]

Ac1983fan, what are your thoughts on the conflict between serra and me?

Well, I have a gut scumread on you, and serra isn't playing any differently than the one town game I played with him, so yeah.

You just seem rather uninterested in improving your reads on people/reading them beyond the first few pages.

Tbh I'm just having a hard time getting a lock on this game, I don't know why.

top of page 4: most voteworthy imo- venrob, kaze.
...
I just realized I replaced venrob. ha. he's town folks.

This definitely raises a red flag for me, if only because the last time I saw somebody do this in a game was when I replaced into Mini 1456, and I was townread for doing it by several players for most of the game.

You say your gut is telling you DV is scum. Can you point out any posts from him that give you that gut read, even if you can't explain why? Everything from you looks like scum play.

Something about his post 54 (the one right before I switched onto him) rings as not-town to me.

[ac1983fan]

serra 69 is an interesting point, but I remember DV being a blustering fool(no offense) and their play in this game so far seems par for the course. but I am onot a "meta" guy. I will refer to my own experience with players, but I don't do research on games I am not playing in. I would not consider his "foolishness" alignment indicative though. so whatevz.

I would prefer it if you didn't have previous opinions of me affect how you consider my posts this game.

Isn't that, exactly what he said he was doing in the part you quoted?

Actually, the part you quoted is just a long winded nothing statement, really.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: don_johnson

[ac1983fan]

What's not to understand about the vote?
I thought Venrob looked fairly scummy until 51, which made him seem like town. Then don_johnson replaces him in and drops two scumtells in his one post.

[ac1983fan]

Those scumtells being?

Already mentioned them in my posts...

[ac1983fan]

Then you weren't very specific. Humor me?

First of all, in his catch up post he called his slot scummy and then went "oh that's me lol jk guys I'm town". I did the same thing in one of my recent scum games.

Then, also in his catchup post his whole commentary on post 69 literally says nothing. He just says "it could be this way or it could be that way idk" but he takes like forever and a day to say it, which looks like scum trying to artificially inflate his contributions.

[ac1983fan]

how is pointing out that venrob was voteowrthy at all indicative of being scum?

I skated by being townread for several days in a recent game for the same reason. I was scum. moreover, you actually made the realization in the same post, which makes it look wayy freaking manufactured.

[ac1983fan]

Oh, it could be either of those, frankly. Also the fact that the only thing that made me unvote Venrob was a single post which, in retrospect, doesn't ACTUALLY look that town.

And the last few sentences there seem pretty, passive aggressive? Idk dude, I'm just saying the reasons for my vote. I don't really care if you defend yourself or whatnot, unless there is an obvious logical flaw in my thought process.

[ac1983fan]

Not interested in what your scum suspect has to say? Putting the burden of proof on DJ to disprove the argument, "I did this as scum, you must be scum for doing it too."? The whole thing comes off as you having found a lynch you can push from a defensible position.

It's not that I'm not interested in it, but at this point in time he is by far my strongest scumread. Like, I'm not trying to say that I am with certainty or without falliability correct in my interpretation - it's more that, like, unless he does or says something extremely town or points out some illogical part of my read, I'm not going to change my read.

so the post that makes ac think venrob is town is the post where venrob accuses ac of being scummy with their vote? um, ok.

It's one of those deals where, when people make really stupid arguments that seem genuine, I tend to think they are town.

has ac ever explained the gut scumread on DV?

ok. post 54. what is scummy about it?

Nothing I can put my finger on, hence "gut" and why I put my vote somewhere else as soon as a better read formed.

[ac1983fan]

so which is it? am I acting, or did I make a mistake and then try to play it off. you can't have it both ways.

I think it's likely it was a legitimate mistake at first, but you realized it before you made the post and decided to go for the towncred by including that last line in the post, instead of just deleting your references to venrob.

[ac1983fan]

meh. I don't buy that it gives me any towncred. if you believe it was a mistake, then you agree that I was honestly scumhunting. which is something scum doesn't do. hence the logic fail. took me a while to see it, but if you think it through, it should make sense to you as well. but whatevz.

But see, you're supposing that you can't pretend scumhunt as scum in the same way you would as town. Which you can totally do. Seriously I did exactly this thing you're proposing can't be done right here. And I realized my mistake in the next post. I was pretty sure people were going to jump down my throat for it, but it turned out most people thought it made me town. So obviously it appears to be one way scum replacing in can attempt to gain towncred.

[ac1983fan]

UNVOTE:
siiighhh

Not interested in what your scum suspect has to say? Putting the burden of proof on DJ to disprove the argument, "I did this as scum, you must be scum for doing it too."? The whole thing comes off as you having found a lynch you can push from a defensible position.

It's not that I'm not interested in it, but at this point in time he is by far my strongest scumread. Like, I'm not trying to say that I am with certainty or without falliability correct in my interpretation - it's more that, like, unless he does or says something extremely town or points out some illogical part of my read, I'm not going to change my read.

so the post that makes ac think venrob is town is the post where venrob accuses ac of being scummy with their vote? um, ok.

It's one of those deals where, when people make really stupid arguments that seem genuine, I tend to think they are town.

This is still an awful argument. Although it raises the obvious question of why you're agreeing Venrob was town but keeping your vote on DJ?

There was only one post which changed my read of venrob from leaning scum to leaning town, but don's posts switched it back the other way. My vote wasn't on DJ until after he replaced in.

[ac1983fan]

@DV : I need to reread isos before i vote because dj was my only really strong read.
@Kaze : lynching a claimed pr day 1 is usually a bad idea.

[ac1983fan]

And scum know that, hence why they claim PRs day one. Mind blown, eh?

[ac1983fan]

^Thanks for stating the obvious.

I think there is scum between DJ and DV. I don't like how both of them seemed to attempt to distance themselves from each popular wagon, I don't like that DV wouldn't vote for Viera to avoid a no lynch, and I don't like that DJ tried to start a DV wagon with litraly only a few hours before deadline.

kaze, penguin, aptil are all definitely town.

[ac1983fan]

Ac, I was very willing to vote Viera to avoid a no lynch. I didn't at first because I knew I'd be around closer to the deadline. What gave you the impression that I didn't want to?

To be honest,I think I misread the line where you said "the Viera Assassin wagon isn't too bad" as "the Viera Assassin wagon is bad". Woops.

Anyway yeah I guess there is no logical reason to not lynch Penguin today. How many votes is he at right now? 3?
VOTE: Penguin
I think that is L-1.

[ac1983fan]

I mean logistically there's really only two options:
*DJ is telling the truth, which means PA is either scum, or vanilla and there is a town protective role out there which stopped the kill
*DJ is lying, which means he is scum and gets lynched tomorrow to no benefit for his side.