Micro 279: Uncommon Mafia - OVER

[serrapaladin]

/confirm

Hi guys! Thoughts coming in a bit.

[serrapaladin]

I'm a compulsive visitor and I've asked bb for klick's submitted night-actions. Read-through happening now.

[serrapaladin]

This seems like a designed setup, rather than a random great idea type one. BB calling it "uncommon mafia" seems to imply he chose uncommon, great idea-type roles for the setup. I suppose that means Firefighter implies some Arsonist type role?

My guess is my role is to give a false positive to some tracker-type role.

Does the strange vanilla role have any meaning?

That's a little odd considering Greater Idea Mafia (which this game's role PMs are based on, see post 2) contains neither a Firefighter nor an Arsonist.

I can NOT believe you all just turned around and lynched Bert at the last second instead of Aegor.

Well this is awkward. I'm the Captain. I had Bob target Klick because Klick was really fucking suspicious and innocents aren't worth shit when we might be up against werewolves or something. I'm pretty skeptical of there actually being Aliens, although the lack of N1 kill is somewhat suspicious.

Idk how Arsonist is supposed to make sense as an Alien role considering Aliens are supposed to only get 1 factional kill. Imagine having a Mafia Vigilante who can use their action in addition to the factional kill.

Still, Bob's probably Town? Definitely Town if there are Aliens, if there aren't then who the fuck even knows.

@Alduskell: As far as I can tell, your own role doesn't appear on that list, so your comments towards Bert look bad.

I have no idea what to think about the captain role, but either Alduskell is currently lying about his role, or tried to soft-push the Bert lynch to completion. His later claim about missing his own role while checking the list for Bert's seems dubious.

I'm a Town Compulsive Loyal Conspiracy Theorist Ensign, an alien-flavored cop/miller. I have to follow orders from a captain. Klick isn't alien. My captain probably is, which is why I'm claiming.

I think they tried to make Klick target himself, since he soft-claimed a power role.

What makes you say that? Why would scum have a redirector?

With yessiree's role, I think it's really quite likely my own role works as a false positive for firefighter.

I believe Bob's claim, and had him as town anyways, so we probably have aliens, too? Unless of course one of the investigators is a red herring, which I guess would mean we're only dealing with aliens? Alien arsonist doesn't sound right...

Mac's slot is probably most suspicious from a first read-through, in particular from his predecessor, but I also didn't quite like the flow of his reads, or his reaction to the modkill and klick's claim.

Aldi could be alien, but that makes the quick claim somewhat strange.

Given we're only missing two, we should probably finish the massclaim.

If we actually have 6-2 aliens-1 arsonist, I wouldn't be all too surprised if one of the alien roles could find the arsonist, but yessiree has been reading fairly towny, so idk.

Alduskell, what's your complete rolename? Did you know what you would make bob do?

VOTE: Mac

pedit: hi yessiree!

[serrapaladin]

I'm a Town Captain. And I can't be lying about my role unless Bob is ALSO lying or there is another Captain who, for some reason, isn't counterclaiming.

What's your response to me saying that yessiree's role is too weak to warrant a Miller-type (your role) for it?

I believe that you do control bob's action, but you could be an alien captain. Did you know what you would make bob do?

What makes you say yessiree's role is weak? And didn't you say that before yessi actually revealed his role? I'm not quite sure how his role works, but it seems to me like without my role, a result by him would be pretty alignment indicative. If we really have aliens, killing would definitely catch them out, and if the arsonist were the only "misc" it would catch him out, too. I can only guess as to why a miller-type role was put in, but with a doc-type role (Bert) and a cop-type role (yessi), a third-party could use some compensation, no?

pedit: 1-shot unlynchable also comes as alien, which is worrying...

[serrapaladin]

Right, so I really don't think we'd have an alien arsonists, so we're either being misled in terms of aliens (strange considering two roles are related to it). Either the arsonist is a red herring altogether or my role is the counter to yessiree.

I believe bob's and alduskell's claim, but the latter is not necessarily alignment indicative. Yessiree's claim is also true since he correctly tracked my action, but I guess there's an off-chance scum would be given an investigative role to find an arsonist.

yessiree: what's your role-name and do you have an exhaustive list of action categories? Do you have any indication on what falls into which category?

We had a missing kill and no claimed protection role. It's likely scum doesn't have a nightly kill, so I actually buy the whole aliens thing.

If there are 2+1 scum, with corresponding town PR's, I think at least one of the VT claims (includion Implosion's is wrong). I think Mac/DLA has been the scummiest. Implosion's potential alien role might be a fake-out. PhD reads as townish.

[serrapaladin]

I'm confused, I swear you said you had an inno on me/klick. Is your working theory that ALL of the town PR's are red herrings and we're basically playing mountainous? Alien are the one scum faction that don't have a regular NK, and we have two roles related to them, plus this is titled "uncommon" mafia, so I think it's a pretty good bet we're looking for aliens...

Self-vanillaisers are probably misc, but they would all be turned by N1. VT's would return "none". The captain likely being misc is a fair point, but he has an out in that you can confirm his role. I guess we can discuss setup design postgame, but I am a visitor, so my guess is I'm either mislynch bait given we have a firefighter, or a false-positive for a real arsonist.

Care to explain the statement in 382 I quoted above? Why would you think scum have a redirect?!

[serrapaladin]

Actually, yessiree, why did you come out asking whether klick had doused someone? If you really are a follower, misc would also indicate any of the self-vanillaisers N1.

[serrapaladin]

I don't have a reason to believe I'm sane

wat.

Care to explain the statement in 382 I quoted above? Why would you think scum have a redirect?!

I don't

I said the captain is scum and made me target Klick because he soft-claimed a PR

just to put some pressure on the claim

You did bring up redirects out of nowhere though...:

I think

they tried to make Klick target himself, since he soft-claimed a power role

.

Well we've got two days and so far I've seen no reason why I should be voting Mac while I have every reason to believe that Klick/serra is just straight up an Arsonist. You guys do realize that Klick got really coy about claiming Day 1 when he was essentially a MILLER, right? Who even does that?

If I were Town, I would have just straight off claimed Compulsive Visitor and attempted to town it up from there and draw the NK that way.

Do you think a miller claim would have saved Klick yesterday? Us getting NKed would have been the best thing to happen to us, so whether or not you agree with his play, I think it was somewhat justified.

I am still thinking serra is an arsonist. Compulsive visitor is the type of role I've thought of fakeclaiming as scum to avoid being caught - and with yessiree being vague early on, it looks like Klick thought he had been tracked and panicked. Compulsive Visitor just doesn't fit with these roles.

You realise klick claimed before yessiree revealed the nature of his role, right? How the hell would klick have known to claim something that would come up as "misc" for follower if he didn't know yessiree was a follower? Visitor isn't even on the list of Greater Idea roles. With tracker/watcher generally more common than follower, you're presuming some serious luck from klick in claiming something that fit yessiree's result.

What do you guys think of infinity's claim?

Bob, do you think aldi is town then? Do you know what happens to your skill if he dies?

Balance-wise, if we're playing 6-2-1, I would sort of suspect either yessiree or aldi to be scum.

I think at most one of Mac/PhD is scum. My vote goes for Mac. If we're looking for 3 scum, implosion could well be a 1-shot lynchproof alien.

I actually think we might have Mac as the real arsonist, with an alien team of implosion and one of {yessiree, aldi}. If the firefighter is a red herring, it's quite possible implosion's role is too, in which case I could see Mac and one of {yessiree,aldi}.

[serrapaladin]

"infinity's claim."

Yup, that would be implosion...

You know what else Klick's claim did? Get him targeted by exactly the role that he is designed to fool. Tell me how that is pro-town.

It didn't end up being pro-town. I agree. But unless you think my slot is arsonist with some weird setup info that would allow klick to plan his moves accordingly, it also doesn't mean I'm scum. Also, remember klick refused to claim before we had any info about there being an arsonist. He wouldn't have thought he'd be covering for an arsonist, so there's no way he would expect to be targeted by a role designed to catch an arsonist.

I just looked through bb's mod meta and in one of his most recent games all VTs were mafia cops and the anti-town faction weren't mafia so suck it

I will consider lynching any of the remaining three {serra, PhD, Mac} today by poe

Has the current response to innos actually shifted to "meh he might be insane"? What the fuck is going on if this is the standard mode of thinking? Yes, sanities are sometimes put in to spice up larger games or make weird theme games with many cops, but this is ridiculous...

Anywho, 6-2-1 is possible to balance if the 2-scum side is kill limited. I've usually balanced it with a kill-less mafia, but in a PR-heavy town, it certainly is possible, particularly if the only two alien PR's are single lynchproof and captain. If kill-less scum + SK is balanceable, so is arsonist + aliens.

7-2 is certainly a possibility, although the alien and arsonist kill-mechs don't really fit. I think aliens without arsonist is more likely.

yessi: even if you believe aldi's claim as captain, does that necessarily make him town?

I'm too tired/drunk to come up with some quotes, but mac has struck me as scummiest so far. His predecessor had a de-escalatory air about his posts and seemed to ask questions for the sake of it rather than to scumhunt. Mac's read-up felt formulaic in how he built reads, his reaction to the modkill (like aldi's I think) bugged me, and his switch from klick-town to voting me was entirely convenient based on klick's claim.

[serrapaladin]

And it is not just a coincidence that Klick's just happened to fit into my investigation perfectly. It is not difficult to think of roles to fake-claim as arsonist; not after I prompted him to claim his role type. Obviously he wasn't gonna claim killing. The fact that dousing people is essentially the same as visiting them, while at the same time these actions do not fit into the investigative, or protective category, makes me believe that it is not difficult to for him to have claimed visitor after some consideration.

Regarding Aldi's claim. The intrinsic claim does not necessarily make him town. However, it is his decision to claim and the timing of the claim, in the face of the possibility of immediate suspicion, were the elements that sold me that he's indeed a town captain instead of a scum one.

Actually, now that I think about it, if we are under the 6-2-1 setting, then Bob's inno on serra becomes irrelevant with regard to serra being the arsonist, since the arsonist is not associated with the aliens.

VOTE: serrapaladin

That's both pretty superficial, but I guess the vote is fair. I can't really expect to survive on a miller claim, although if it really is 6-2-1, lynching me will put us in a pretty bad situation. If I actually were the arsonist, do you really think I would be arguing for the existence of one?

You guys all say klick may have figured out what to claim, but if he had really crafted a claim to fit the result, why would he replace out? I think it's pretty obvious he pulled a klick, decided to go ahead and claim, and then replace out.

If you do lynch me, please go for Mac tomorrow. I'm fairly sure if there is an arsonist, it's Mac, and if he lives another day town is basically screwed. With an arsonist out there, no-lynching would be a horrible idea, so I guess someone should hammer me if we don't agree on anyone else.

I'm also a worried about PhD, who has been logging in but not posting. I think upon rereading I'd agree with implosion-town, and phd might instead be aliens with aldi. Aldi's "this is bad" about having aliens and arsonist pings, as did his comment on the modkill.

If anyone would agree on a last-minute switch to phd, I would be all for that.

[serrapaladin]

Something like replacing out doesn't really work as a gambler's fallacy, since some players may prefer a certain alignment and hence replace out of the other. I haven't been around in a while, but I do seem to remember klick preferring scum, so it would make sense if the majority of his replace-outs were with town roles. It's a shame that this type of meta-game is part of the game, but since MSnet allows replacements, it's natural to look for patterns.

I know it doesn't mean much coming from me, but in my experience people very rarely replace out when caught as scum. I've found the major reason to replace out (after time issues) to be frustration by townies who are falsely accused.

Can we just agree to lynch phd today? There unfortunately isn't much I can do to prove I'm not the arsonist except get killed, but at least you know I'm not an alien. We don't even know whether we have an arsonist or not, but if phd happens to be arsonist, that would basically clear me.

Finally, I suppose it's worth considering that if there really are two scum factions, the aliens will also need to get rid of the arsonist in order to win, so the best chance we have is to go for lynching an alien first. I think aldi actually has the highest prob of being alien, since both mac or phd may also be the arsonist, but I'd also be happy with phd.

VOTE: phd

[serrapaladin]

serra you've said you're fairly sure I'm the arsonist and it's suicide for town to let me live: so why the hell are you votinh PhD?

I'm voting PhD because I changed my mind about implosion, which moves phd towards the top of my list. We don't even know if there is an arsonist, so we should base our lynching decision on who may be most likely to be any sort of scum.

In particular, if we are playing 6-2-1, lynching alien today actually improves our chances of winning through the probability of a cross-kill.

I still think your slot has been scummiest, and my reasons for thinking you're arsonist over alien aren't particularly strong, so I'd also happily join a wagon on you, but I know that you'll at least contribute, and I think a phd wagon may just happen by DL.

What do you think about lynching phd?

Because serra's scum.

I think we have 2 Arsonists vs. Follower/Firefighter, like a weird as hell 2 Mafia vs. Cop/Doc. That makes the Alien roles red herrings/named townies (whatever you think about my alignment, I think you will grant that Bob is very likely to be Town based on his role if not his play).

Do you realise how ridiculous this is? You're actually trying to explain away an inno result on me by making some weird as hell assumptions about the setup. I sincerely hope you're actually an alien captain, otherwise this is indefensible, really...

[serrapaladin]

Because you are one? The only reason you're pushing that mental double arsonist theory is because it allows you to push my lynch.

If that's not true and you're actually town, you REALLY need to reconsider your reasoning here. There are TWO roles pertaining to aliens, so there's absolutely no reason to believe arsonists are more likely to be in this game than aliens. In addition, an arsonist team is ridiculously overpowered. The balance on a third party arsonist comes from the fact that if he dies before igniting, he's lost. I genuinely still think 6-2-1 is the most likely option, but failing that it's 7-2 with aliens.

[serrapaladin]

Are you trolling?

[serrapaladin]

No, are you?

[serrapaladin]

So you agree we have aliens then? <3

[serrapaladin]

Could we stipulate that it is incredibly unlikely for both bob's and bert's role to be red herrings?

[serrapaladin]

Then if your assumption that we don't have aliens is correct, we must surely have an arsonist.

An arsonist 2-man mafia-team is severely unbalanced in 9p, which would mean the arsonist would have to be third-party.

For this to be a game of Mafia, it would need another scum-team of two. Bob only checks for aliens, so if this additional team is anything but aliens, there would be basically no town power to counteract that team. Which would again be severely unbalanced.

The only 2-man scum-team that's balanceable given the claims we have is aliens.

[serrapaladin]

Because lylo would be 5 vs. 2, which is much less likely to go town's way than 3 vs. 2. Particularly if the strongest town PR doesn't actually work.

[serrapaladin]

3 mislynches, yes, but instead of choosing from 9, 7 and 5, you're choosing from 9, 8, and 7, which gives scum a ~30% larger chance of winning, because there's more mislynch fodder. Add to that the missing PR and an arsonist 2-man team would have something like a 75% chance of winning a 9p. Plus, who would make a 9p setup with a 2-man arsonist team and decide to throw in two alien-themed town roles just for kicks?... If you really want to, we can discuss numbers post-game, but I really don't see why you refuse to believe that your and bob's roles imply there actually are aliens.

Anywho, I'll be on something like 4-5 hours before DL. Would very much appreciate if we could not lynch me before that/lynch lurker-phd.

[serrapaladin]

I'm here, but DL is extended. PhD has totally still been logging in, so I still like the idea of lynching him, but I guess we can wait for a replacement.

In the mean time, we can discuss wtf was going on with aldi last night...

[serrapaladin]

Results? @aldi: I'm guessing you didn't make Bob target you?

I'm pretty sure the denial of alien existence (ha!) was meant to be some sort strategy from alien-Aldi.

VOTE: Alduskell

[serrapaladin]

Did you think Mac was scum then? I don't remember you discussing that with Bob at all, which is very strange, given how you wanted to choose someone scummy D1.

Why would aliens kill last night? They need another mislynch, so it makes sense they'd wait.

MyLo =/= LyLo, but I guess I can
UNVOTE:
while we're waiting on everyone to check in.



Alien's are a pretty underpowered faction with a missing kill, so I think it makes a lot of sense for one of bob and aldi to be scum. If Bob were scum, he could just provide false positives at will, so it only makes sense that aldi-scum gets to choose who gets copped.

Aldi, do you

really

think double-arsonist is the most likely scenario? Your play reminds me of something I've done as scum once or twice, trying to sell some unlikely theory to fit who I'm trying to mislynch.

[serrapaladin]

So you tacitly agree that Bob's investigation has some significance?

Thing is, killing Bob would basically confirm we're dealing with aliens, and thus make me more or less conf-town. If (as I believe) Bob got an inno on Mac, that just introduces more wifom. Plus, if I'm right and you're scum, leaving Bob alive is just what you need to sell your arsonist theory.

Also, I guess there is still a chance we're dealing with 6-2-1, in which case aliens could be waiting in case they need to use their kill on the arsonist.

Besides being wrong about me and the setup, what are your reads? I think we can basically agree Bob is town, so that leaves at least one scum in {Mac, implosion, yessiree}.

[serrapaladin]

Actually, I think you screwed up in trying to make your theory consistent. If you truly believe we're not dealing with aliens, why would Bob's role be at all alignment indicative?

[serrapaladin]

@Bob, do you believe there are aliens?

So I think that means I was actually right about Mac being the arsonist. If his claim of self-vanillaiser were true, he would have had to be vanilla by now, so yess wouldn't get a misc result. Or of course there is no arsonist and yessiree is scum :/

Unfortunately, if it is 6-2-1, lynching Mac would let the aliens win...

I'm pretty much back to my theory of implosion and one of yessiree/Aldi, which is a huge problem since it'll take two days to lynch implosion.

If Mac is the arsonist, he has two dousings so far. I think our best strategy would be to lynch from yessiree/aldi today and Mac tomorrow unless yessiree flips alien.

[serrapaladin]

If Mac is the arsonist, he has two dousings so far. I think our best strategy would be to lynch from yessiree/aldi today and Mac tomorrow unless yessiree flips alien.

This is scummy, attempting to narrow down the lynch pool to only aldi and me while allowing the alleged arson to roam free? Assuming 7-2, and scum team killing method is thru arson only, this is already mylo, how do you not realize lynching a town today is basically a game-throw?

I mean holy shit just do the math

lynch town
5 into tonight
arson team ignites either 2 or 1
that's either 2:2 or 1:2 (town: scum) going into tomorrow
town loses

So you're also going with the arson team theory?

If we end up lynching Mac today and wake up to an alien win, I will cut whichever one of you/aldi is town with my Occam's razor...

How is everyone so sure it's not 6-2-1??? I have designed and run several 9p games with an SK and a kill-less scumteam, which is almost perfectly balanced with a little town power. If I'm right, this is almost entirely the same.

This is stupid...

[serrapaladin]

implosion is just 1-shot unlynchable. He could be scum, or if he's town, he can still be endgamed.

Keeping bob alive actually makes sense if either you or aldi are alien. If it's aldi, bob living and getting another "inno" on mac helps sell his double arsonist theory, while if you're scum, you obviously did a good job in having your claim believed and setting Mac up, so you can save your kill.

[serrapaladin]

Bob: why is implosion town?

I don't plan on letting implosion (or his replacement...) coast at all. In fact, I think it's fairly likely he is scum, but since it'd take 2 shots to lynch him, I think he's best left for last. I mean, I guess we could lynch him once, so we know whether he's telling the truth about his role, but that doesn't really tell us much about his alignment and would basically be a wasted day.

[serrapaladin]

Lol no, compulsive means you'd have turned yourself vanilla N1, so would not have had an ability to use N2.

[serrapaladin]

I think you'll find vanillaiser means you won't have an ability to use from night 2. Nice try though.

[serrapaladin]

• Bert -

  Town Firefighter

  - Lynched D1
  
  
• Wake88
  Aegor -

  Town Compulsive Self-Vanillaizer
  turned
  Vanilla
  -
  Modkilled D2

  (Due to Wake88's ban. Please note Aegor himself did nothing to warrant the modkill.)
  
  
• PhDScar
  Hanzo_5 -

  Town Compulsive Self-Vanillaizer
  turned
  Vanilla
  -
  Lynched D2

[serrapaladin]

I wish implosion was still around. He's probably scum, but at least the guy is reasonable...

@aldi: what do you think of mac not understanding his own role?

[serrapaladin]

So you're reading, just not comprehending?

[serrapaladin]

BB, does a self-vanillaizer lose his self-vanillaizing ability when vanillaizing himself?

Yes.

If you were a compulsive self-vanillaizer you wouldn't have done anything last night

[serrapaladin]

How do you know this?

[serrapaladin]

Jesus.

[serrapaladin]

The whole point is that you would have compulsively targeted yourself N1. You wouldn't have performed an action of your own accord BECAUSE IT'S COMPULSIVE. This means from D2 onwards, you would have been a VT with no further self-vannilaising to do.

[serrapaladin]

Unfortunately, I think this means mac is town. Yessiree and implosion are aliens.

[serrapaladin]

This is painful.

I guess there's a chance Mac could be scum playing dumb, but unless that's the case I think he's town. No matter what setup we have, scum only need one more mislynch, so I think scum-mac would have immediately taken the hard line that yessiree is lying.

why would I lie when town is in danger of losing if we allow the arsonist to survive...

You know that the answer to this is that you could be scum...

[serrapaladin]

@call:
Thank god, you mostly talk sense.

The reason I believe your role is probably correct is because it features as an alien role on the Greater Idea role list, which bb linked. I could see implosion claiming the town version of it as alien, or bb giving it to town-implosion as a red herring, but I highly doubt implosion would choose to fakeclaim it. In particular, lynchproof invites the town to test the claim (e.g. if they would otherwise no-lynch) so it'd be a pretty horrible fakeclaim.

Your utility argument is actually a very interesting one I did consider, but I think 6-2-1 and 7-2 (alien) are both possible, and in both cases trying to get an alien lynch is the right thing to do. Even 6-2-1 is still winnable unless all scum kills land perfectly.

The only case in which Mac is the correct lynch is if he is part of a two-man arsonist team. Unfortunately, the prior for that is extraordinarily low: Two roles involve aliens, arsonists are (almost?) always third-party, and BB deliberately linked the Greater Idea Role PM's and mentioned roles are based on those. To suggest that the scumteam is a faction not even on that list is really quite ridiculous. If this were the case, literally only ONE of the roles in the game would be from Greater idea. Peddling ridiculously unlikely theories to fit your reads is the very definition of confirmation bias, and it needs to stop.

Regarding your 7:2 balancing, call, you're overlooking the distribution of PR's. 1-kill 7:2 with cop is probably townsided, but one (or possibly even both if you're actually town) of yessiree and aldi would be scum. If scum control the target of the cop (or could even bait a claim from him), I don't think it's so unbalanced any more.

[serrapaladin]

No, it isn't, not in the current gamestate. If the game started 6:2:1, it's currently 3:2:1. Given that we have overwhelming evidence that the scumgroups are asymmetrical in their killing ability (there are two of them in a Micro and nobody's died overnight yet), and thus the Prisoner's Gambit can't be used even as a last resort, town cannot win a 3:1:1, 3:2, 3:2:1, or 2:2:1 going into night (barring a 3:2 if the 2-man scumteam has no killing ability at all, but you seem convinced that that isn't the case, given that you feel one lynch). Thus no matter who you lynch, you lose.

3:1:1 is winnable, and I think some of the others might too (except 3:2). If we go into the night 3:1:1, the only way for the game to be over tomorrow is if 3 kills happen (and even then a mutual cross-kill would give a town-win). 3 kills will only occur if both scum factions decide to use their kill and none of the arsonist primes from the previous 2 nights overlap with any of the lynches or the alien kill, which is actually fairly unlikely.

I'm not saying BB would be compelled to stick to roles/alignments of the page, just that in the balance of things a 2-man arsonist team is very unlikely. The Captain and Conspiracy Theorist are both alien-related roles (i.e. roles that would be red herrings if we have no aliens).

I'm something like 95% sure about this, but it's obvious I'm not going to convince anyone, and I bet half of the people I'm trying to convince are scum anyway. Mac may or may not be an arsonist, but it doesn't really matter.

With Mac's complete lack of consideration for the game mechanics, I think the scum-team is yessiree and call.

VOTE: yessiree

[serrapaladin]

I'm town and I'm upset we're about to lose this because people are choosing to believe an unlikely theory over a likely one. Post game I will almost certainly have what will be something like my fourth rant on this site about people disregarding evidence and common sense because they are so damn sure of their reads.

[serrapaladin]

I'm leaning towards mac's derping being town, so yessiree is scum (follower or perhaps rolecop) framing him. I don't think both investigative roles would be controlled by scum, so the second scum is probably CFJ.

@cfj: why is bob almost certainly town if his role isn't actually pro-town?

[serrapaladin]

Wasn't directed at you...

But anyways, that's where you draw the line? Having an arsonist scum-team with two town red herrings is completely reasonable, but god forbid the mod decide to put one of them on the scum-team?

[serrapaladin]

prod dodge

[serrapaladin]

I don't get it serra. Why aren't you suspecting me anymore?

Because I think as any flavour of scum/third-party, Mac wouldn't have screwed around with his claim. I don't think he was pretending, which means yessiree is framing him. The frame is a play that makes perfect sense for aliens at this point, since if it goes through, they straight out win. Given they only have 1 kill, if we lynch one of them correctly, it isn't MyLo any more.

You/yessiree is possible, but I think it's moderately unlikely both investigative roles are scum-directed.

I hadn't considered the "why did Mac perform the dousing" issue, though, and it's a good one. Certainly, Mac would want to in order to maintain his mistaken beliefs about his fakeclaim worked, but serra should have corrected that in the QT; serra seems unlikely make the same mistake Mac did. It's possible that serra/Mac have an unclaimed action that they needed/wanted to take, leaving the other to perform the "kill", but that also seems unlikely. So in short, I have no idea what's going on there.

Yes, this. If Mac is some sort of scum, I think he could only be a third-party arsonist. If so, there are definitely two scum excluding Mac. This is where your utility theory comes in, in that if Mac is actually third-party, town winning is fairly unlikely, whereas if Mac is town, yessiree is framing him.

[serrapaladin]

It's possible, but I still see it as rather unlikely.

One thing I have been considering is how cfj's role fits into this. As town, it doesn't really seem to have much utility outside of quicklynch baiting in MyLo, but if he were an arsonist, his role would allow him an additional night to douse/ignite. Mac/cfj as arsonists is possible, but then their interaction doesn't look like scumbuddies to me. If the scum-team is mac/cfj, I think cfj would have just gone with the alien theory to get yessiree lynched, as that would most likely seal the game.

1-shot lynchproof is also an alien role, and cfj/yessiree's interaction fits the mould much better. Since replacing in, cfj hasn't had any interaction with yessiree that would help him figure out yessiree's alignment, which I would expect given how he immediately identifies the mac/yessiree 1v1.

[serrapaladin]

Surely you already knew that given your alleged guilty on him?

What do you think of cfj and his walls?

Also, I should quote this again for effect since cfj overlooked it in his wall:

I hadn't considered the "why did Mac perform the dousing" issue, though, and it's a good one. Certainly, Mac would want to in order to maintain his mistaken beliefs about his fakeclaim worked, but serra should have corrected that in the QT; serra seems unlikely make the same mistake Mac did. It's possible that serra/Mac have an unclaimed action that they needed/wanted to take, leaving the other to perform the "kill", but that also seems unlikely. So in short, I have no idea what's going on there.

Yes, this. If Mac is some sort of scum, I think he could only be a third-party arsonist. If so, there are definitely two scum excluding Mac. This is where your utility theory comes in, in that if Mac is actually third-party, town winning is fairly unlikely, whereas if Mac is town, yessiree is framing him.

[serrapaladin]

@cfj: Except that quote of yours throws up serious questions about why Mac would have used an action last night if he was on a team with me.

If mac flips arsonist and that doesn't end the game I'm pretty much guaranteed to be tomorrow's lynch, so I'll be pretty disappointed about having misread his reaction and the game-setup. I really don't see it happening, but if that is the case, you're the only reasonable scumbuddy for him, so it'd be gg to you, I guess.

I really feel like I'm wasting my breath since aldi has probably already made up his mind, but your alleged reaction test on me is bad. Whether I think you're town or not, a vote like that isn't going to draw any useful reaction, and I don't think you believed it would. Your criticism about me not making cases based on your and yessiree's play is equally misplaced. I know what you were doing when you were trying to make me elaborate on my reads upon replacing in, because they obviously don't correspond to what I'm pushing now. I'm not suddenly going to pretend I've been scumreading you guys all along. Mac's whole reaction looking very town is the most important reason why I'm scumreading you and yessiree, besides my belief about the setup, so you trying to paint my lack of a play-based case against you guys as scummy is a cheap shot.

Finally, your analysis of why it couldn't be a mac/you scumteam is too shallow. implosion was obviously aware of how self-vanillisers work, but he was also replaced first thing D3, so it would stand to reason he could have simply been absent over night. Your whole thing about trying to analyse scum-teams from a "neutral" perspective is fake.

@yessiree: why would town-cfj put in more effort in mylo than scum-cfj?

[serrapaladin]

So nothing conclusive here.

Correct, but then you admit you left out a fairly large caveat when you posted this:

Mac / callforjudgement: Nobody seems to have suggested this one yet, and it's quite hard for me to make dayplay analyses based on the assumption that I'm scum. In terms of the setup and night actions, this is impossible with an Alien scumteam (based on Bob's investigation results). Assuming Arsonists,

this is even worse at explaining the fact that yessiree was able to catch Mac in a lie than Mac / serrapaladin

; implosion was well aware of how self-vanillizers worked (#356, well before the last night phase).

It's also incorrect that no one had suggested you/mac since I suggested the possibility in the post just before that.

I don't want to argue that there's a you/mac team, since you/yessiree makes much more sense in many respects, but it's not impossible. I would rank it as about as likely as yessiree/aldi.

[serrapaladin]

What concerns me is that you're trying to discredit me based on rejecting the possibility of me/Mac slightly harder than I should have been, when it's already pretty hard to be objective about scumteams that you know are impossible (and

I was including all the possibilities to help the players who have to decide, Alduskkel and Bob, to make up their mind

). I don't know why you'd expect a difference in my attitude towards me/Mac between me as town, and me as scum with someone other than Mac; in both cases, I know the pairing isn't possible.

If you want to claim I'm scum with Mac and trying to downplay the possibility, fine. If you want to attack me over a perceived inconsistency in what I'm saying without explaining why you think it's indicative of my alignment, then you're just trying to make people think I'm scum rather than trying to determine my alignment. This would be a huge scumtell outside a 1v1/2v2. In a 1v1/2v2, it's not so much of a scumtell (because town and scum have the same motivations there), but it isn't a particularly persuasive way to make your argument.

The problem with you exhaustively listing potential scum-pairs is that it allows you to control the narrative while seeming "neutral" in your analysis. In leaving out an important consideration about you/mac as a scum team you are giving away your slant, regardless of whether or not you and mac are scumbuddies.

[serrapaladin]

Because aliens.

Since that obviously doesn't convince anyone (including mac, which has me questioning my own sanity), my strongest argument for yessiree scum is that mac is town. Mac's reaction to yessiree's guilty claim was equal parts derpy and aggressive, and he showed a genuine progression. There would have been no good reason for scum!mac to undertake a night-action last night, since we already had all claims, and no one was apparently killed/blocked/etc.

If nothing else, please just read the start of this day again and make up your own mind about mac.

[serrapaladin]

"where is the town power?"

[serrapaladin]

prods hurt...

serra, did you mean anything at all by #697? Or were you just trying to troll?

I did actually. It was the same "history channel aliens guy" picture as aldi had posted. Your concern about yessiree-scum meaning we're lacking town power wouldn't really be the case if the scumteam are aliens.

[serrapaladin]

This is stupid.

[serrapaladin]

asinine tomfoolery.

u scum bro?

[serrapaladin]

Lol, no, it's still not me...

Given cfj's last two posts, it's pretty obvious he was expecting this to happen.

It's definitely yessiree/cfj, and they are definitely aliens. The reason the game isn't over is probably because they haven't technically achieved their wincon, since the usual 50% rule relies on scum being able to force a no-lynch and then kill.

VOTE: yessiree

Unfortunately, lynching scum would require a bus today, so it looks like this'll be a draw.

[serrapaladin]

I did ask bb, but he wouldn't tell me whether he's using the greater idea wincon for aliens.

I guess there's a chance your questions last twilight were genuinely trying to catch me out as scum-with-mac, but I didn't actually see them before the thread was locked, so the fact that your "expected reaction" and "what happens if I don't log on" are the same doesn't really give that much weight.

What situation could there possibly be in which yessiree would prefer to be lynched?

I don't think 2 aliens vs. 2 town would necessarily end the game. Since aliens only have 1 kill, they can win by saving it until LyLo, not MyLo. The reason the aliens would kill bob last night is because otherwise they would have definitely lost. As is, there's at least the tiniest bit of doubt whether the second alien is aldi or cfj.

lmao why are you voting, it's not like my partner is gonna bus me

Scum claim.

No lynch ain't safe for town at all. He could have doused 1 of the remaining players last night and is ready to ignite tonight should no lynch occur.

Basically, if there IS an arsonist, the remaining townie decides who wins between arson/scum

Alien claim.


Yessiree-scum won't be lynched today unless his partner, who is most likely cfj, busses. If we lynch someone who isn't yessiree or his buddy, they definitely win, whereas if we no-lynch, we'll get a draw by happily-ever-after.

[serrapaladin]

Nope, I'm town, so I don't think there is an arsonist.

Do you admit to being alien then? What's your wincon?

[serrapaladin]

Well it's not me, so either you misunderstood your wincon, or the one of aldi/cfj who isn't your buddy is actually the arsonist.

I think cfj is your buddy, so that would make aldi a captain/arsonist which is just very strange.

I guess there's a chance cfj is the arsonist, but then town has lost anyways, since it takes 2 shots to lynch him, so it doesn't really matter.

If your wincon is anything like the greater-idea alien wincon, 2 vs. 2 is not an alien win.

I'm surprised you're not trying to convince the town you were redirected or something

[serrapaladin]

Are you saying aldi is your buddy then?

I don't believe you about your wincon. The only way you can win is if we lynch someone today, so you have every reason to make us believe it isn't a tie.

If you were telling the truth, it doesn't matter what happens since town has lost anyways, but if you're lying, the way to secure a tie is to no-lynch, so this is a no-brainer.

[serrapaladin]

Actually, it's probably aldi, isn't it? It's not like it matters, but I don't think scum-cfj would be putting in any effort at this point.

[serrapaladin]

No, I still don't believe you.

If you were expecting to win today, why would you kill bob?

[serrapaladin]

Actually, this is wrong. A draw would have already happened if nothing can alter that. Since the game is still on-going. Someone killing role still exists AKA arsonist.

That's not true though, because you can still win. If you can force a mislynch, which you're obviously doing your best to do, you can still win this.

My vote today is either you or no-lynch, if that means cfj wins, I guess he deserves it.

[serrapaladin]

No, I still don't believe you.

If you were expecting to win today, why would you kill bob?

because I didn't think there'd be actually arsonist in this game. We win if it's 2-2. Right now it's 2-1-1 and the 3rd party has NK powers.

Still no. Even if you were pretty sure there's no arsonist, it would still be a strictly better idea to target someone who MIGHT have a kill.

[serrapaladin]

Well, if he's telling the truth about his role, lynching cfj is functionally equivalent to no-lynching, so that doesn't actually make a huge difference.

Still, if we actually decide on a lynch, that might delay a draw-by-repetition, so I don't see much point in it.

[serrapaladin]

So is it true that aldi is your buddy?

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: No lynch

[serrapaladin]

That was the hammer, methinks. Gg?

[serrapaladin]

Ah, forgot about this. Thanks for modding, bb! I like the setup.

It's perhaps a little biased against town, but then two scum-factions tend to have less than 50% town-wins. The modkill didn't really help. Klick's claim was fantastically accurate. Without that, I would have been pretty screwed. It could definitely have gotten me lynched, and if yessiree/aldi had just pushed my lynch then, they almost certainly would have won, but as is, it gave me enough plausible deniability of not being the arsonist.

I think I also could have won by igniting last night, but I didn't think the remaining townie would vote me over conf-scum, so I wanted to be safe in case of a no-kill, or if scum killed cfj. The setup doesn't really have more of a kingmaker problem than most other setups with 2 scumparties.