Micro 295: Cowardly Hider Mafia (Game Over)

[BROseidon]

I think that town read on Varsoon is premature. Scum-Varsoon would want to shoot down the plan knowing that someone else would shoot down the plan and make supporters of the plan look bad.

pedit: Not necessarily. Scum know exactly how many hiders they can claim b/c they know the setup.

[BROseidon]

#18 is why im townreading him.

Fakeable.

[BROseidon]

Maybe.

Also we aren't mass claiming. Scum already know exactly how many hiders there are, there's no need to give them extra info.

We do need a good way to slip hider crumbs through without them being obvious. I think each person stating who they would hide behind were they a hider in such a way that it forms a circle might be the best way to go about it.

[BROseidon]

Wait for it...

[BROseidon]

The face palm at your idiocy/scum-motivated vote.

Explain to me how you'd sneak hider crumbs through in a setup where scum know to look for hider crumbs, and know how many to look for.

[BROseidon]

...how?

[BROseidon]

Okay, on the off chance that there are four hiders who would end up without VTs or scum b/w them in the chain AND scum just happen to shoot the person it resolves on...

Yeah, that's unlikely.

[BROseidon]

Okay, figured out how it *could* endgame town on N1.

The odds of that happening are abysmally low.

[BROseidon]

Oh wait we can have up to 5 hiders.

Can you explain how it's more likely to fuck over town than hiders crumbing targets normally?

[BROseidon]

So we tell scum who the hiders are and who to shoot by having only them crumb?

Or do we tell scum to shoot people with multiple people stating intention to hide behind them?

A 1-1 correspondence is the least risky one we can go with.

[BROseidon]

Also in the diagram you showed, only Varsoon would die. If I were a VT who got shot, then all the hiders would die.

Read the rules

[BROseidon]

6: In the event of a hiding "chain" a night kill on the non-hidden endpoint will kill everyone else in that chain. In the event of the chain terminating in a hide behind a non-commuting mafia player, only the endpoint of the chain will die. If you are confused, feel free to PM me your questions about action resolution.

Let me help you with that

[BROseidon]

Crumbs can help anyone. The problem is that now that we've talked about crumbs, scum can just comb for them. Not cool and stuff.

...Like they weren't anyways?

If you're scum in a setup where you're told "THERE ARE THIS MANY HIDERS," do you not fucking comb for crumbs?

[BROseidon]

I disagree with the mass-claim idea. I think we should scumhunt normally during Day 1 and come up with plans to optimize role usage later on. The setup speculation is boring and I don't have any reads yet. I'll check with Nacho and re-read to see where he is at regarding the claims and our reads. I don't feel confident about any reads yet.

~ F-16

Comes into setup that's intended to be broken.

Says we shouldn't break setup.

...k?

[BROseidon]

{BROseidon (Before this game starts, I gave myself some thinking time and thought about "If I was scum, which strategy would I convince town to pull it off?" Circular hiding is what I thought the scum would most likely to try to push. Hence my initial push. But then, I didn't read the specifics lol. Meh. Now all I have on him is some minor stuff like "meh I don't like how he's outright trying to discourage my varsoon townread".)}

So confbias.

Got it.

[BROseidon]

VOTE: Ghatokaka I can't even...

[BROseidon]

It's more like burden of proficiency. You're a strong enough player that you should be able to grasp theory points like setup breaking fairly easily, and the fact that you're discouraging it is indicative of you not putting forth your 100% town game. Which implies you're scum.

And discrediting is fun. You should try it.

[BROseidon]

Except discrediting isn't scummy.

[BROseidon]

What the hell does this even mean?

You're a competent player who shouldn't be fucking up basic theory.

[BROseidon]

What is your current read on him?
My current read has a complete lack of meta. I mean hell yeah feels and shit, but no meta.

i feel that bro is scum because meta and also because Able is his scumbuddy

10/10

[BROseidon]

VOTE: BRO
Why the push on Ghat?

Have you seen the bullshit he's trying to push?

It's worse than katsuki in Anything Goes.

[BROseidon]

Articulate what you mean by bullshit.

Their push of me-scum for doing things like assuming that F-16 would have basic theory knowledge and for shooting down GiF's terrible plan.

[BROseidon]

BRO, in your initial proposal, at what point would you expect people to commit to their supposed hider plans?

The point was that nobody would have to personally commit to anything, and that we could set up a mechanized way to "track" hider results without having to have people crumb them beforehand. This thought process stems from the hardboiled game I played, where I was forced to claim tracker day 2 after Mac hid behind scum night 1. I figured that there was a more optimal way to play that scenario than the way we did, so I've been working on how to break open/semi-open setups with hiders.

[BROseidon]

If you hide and hit scum, you die (unless scum commutes).
You can't claim that you hid behind someone and that it therefore clears them because scum can lie about this AND scum can commute.
So, really, why would anyone hide behind anyone ever?
It's a thousand times easier if we all just never hide and try to pin scum through lynches.
I say we forget the mechanics entirely. Too scum-based. Too easily for scum to kill multiple town one night. Results mean nothing too.
We minimize town deaths by never hiding.
Easymode engaged.

This feels safe and suboptimal. This setup is probably breakable, probably by the way that I've already proposed (although I think the plan could use some minor optimization to prevent scum from "hider-hunting")

[BROseidon]

If you hide behind scum, you die.

Hence my plan to use that to secure scum lynches...

[BROseidon]

1) I don't like shooting down an early townread on Varsoon. I don't think it served any purpose for BRO as town and it seemed strange to criticize GiF reads before offering his own.

...Except early unsubstantiated town reads indicate a scum-interest of trying to avoid conflict and appear natural.

[BROseidon]

When I voted him, he called my vote stupid/scum-motivated.
When nacho voted him, he almost immediately voted him back.

So I think that's either nacho/BRO crossbussing or BRO panicked at nacho scumreading him early.

Why would I panic at Nacho and not at you?

Why aren't you considering different gamestates in when you both voted me?

[BROseidon]

F-16 also said "setup discussion is boring". He didn't say shit about actual theory, so calling his actual theory bullshit when none was presented is dumb.

Calling it boring is implicitly bad theory game.

Opens and Semi-Opens are made to be broken. Especially ones with hiders.

[BROseidon]

I don't think he's scum because of the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of his plan. I don't think the effectiveness or the ineffectiveness of his plan is related to his alignment. Why do you disagree?

Why would scum-me endeavor to break a setup this ornate?

[BROseidon]

It's sad that Nacho/F-16 don't have a real case on me and are using their presence to get me mislynched.

It's fucking pathetic.

[BROseidon]

There COULD be a scenario where Bro found nacho's 83 scummy hence the vote, but then if he did,

he would've voted him right there. Instead, the vote came for reason after post 83.

The only post between that and his cote is nacho's vote on BRO with no reasoning.

Why are you lying about game flow?

[BROseidon]

To be crude, did you break the setup? No.
Then it classifies as "trying to break the setup."

Is there scum endeavor to "try to break the setup?" Sure. To look town. All you have to do is "fail" and boom.

So until the setup is 100% broken with the plan, all the speaks of breaking setup is flat-out null.

I broke it.

Nobody's listening to me.

Not my fault everyone's a moron.

[BROseidon]

And I think it's about time we get a readlist out of BRO.

Ghatokaka scum.

One of you/Varsoon/X-dude scum.

Rest town.

[BROseidon]

Aside from you and GiF, I'm not sure who he'd be afraid of, and GiF's a guess. And no, I'm not being disingenuous by leaving myself off that list, given how thoroughly BRO snookered me in NY 165 and would have in bork's Mini Touhou.

There's nobody on this list that I'm afraid of playing from either side. There is almost nobody on this site that I'm not confident in my ability to beat as either alignment if I bring my A-game.

[BROseidon]

BRO, stepping back from their attack on you, if you're town,

what else that's gone down so far is useful?

Is this referring to events over the entire game, or specifically in my interactions with Ghato?

[BROseidon]

A couple of thoughts I'd put out there before I head off. I'm a little busier now that's school started, so I may not always have time to do longer posts, but I'll always be reading.

Moving on.

I'm not sure how I feel about NS being scum just because his posts are off.

Then again, I haven't played with him ever, but just because his posts aren't what you expect of his townself doesn't mean he's scum. Varsoon did say he's been off(or something) in his recent games, so it could very well be a change in play style.

NS don't really have posts that strike me as towny, with the exception of 202 where he made some efforts to contribute to town. But other than that everything he's posted has been kinda bleh. I wouldn't mind lynching him.

Varsoon's town for me. After he brought up the no hiding thing and all the thought he put into set up, I'm pretty confident he's town. There's no scum-motivation in doing that. Strongest townread so far.

Penguin's town for me too. More recent posts have a lot more content, but doesn't post a lot. Enough for me to say he's towny though.

bubba needs to post more.

The other half of the player list I'm not really sure. I'll have to go through their posts soon. For the beginning of the game I felt GiF was towny, but that may be because he's just posting a lot. I'll have to look through his posts again.

Not sure what to think about Bro.

Can't read the hydras for nuts.

This in particular I'm not a fan of (in reference to my reads list)

[BROseidon]

What exactly have I lied about the game flow?
Go look for yourself. There's your post commenting on nacho/f-16's 83, but there's no vote.
it implies that you didn't find him scummy enough to cast a vote on them.
And then you commented on my post, and then you proceeded to vote nacho.
Whatever you found scummy off of them, it must've been the posts after 83.
What's after the post 83? Nacho's vote.

All my posts are consecutive.

Would your opinion change if I'd written a wall instead of spam-posted?

No?

Congrats, you're lying about game flow.

[BROseidon]

Either, actually, but more the rest of the game and their non-you interactions. Until your recent reads list, I didn't have much of a sense of what your other thoughts were. My gut says this is town-you and doesn't trust Ghatokaca's reactions here, and if that's accurate, your reads are darn useful. Based on #333, I assume you don't see GiF and Varsoon as partners? How would you rank that second-string list?

I tend to agree about Xayzeck's reads list not in light of yours but more in light of that it includes the high-volume posters, and while he's deferring reading them, it reads more like they're null right now. Which, I get being hesitant about you and Ghatokaca, but GiF as well?

GiF, what I don't quite jive with on Jessica is that this doesn't feel like the town-Marquis I've played with. Within the hydra he looks townier than normal, especially with his other head posting a lot in a very stream-of-consciousness way. I'll trust your bubba read for now though.

BRO, I assume you still like your basically circular plan similar to Medical Mafia strategy, except that presumably we'd pick someone to pre-hypoclaim , and their target claims, etc.?

GiF/Varsoon don't make sense as partners b/c Ghatokaca is scum. I haven't worked out any argument from their interactions themselves.

I rank that second list as GiF/Xay/Varsoon. The issue I have with Xay's list is that he goes out of his way to talk about how unsure he is about so many people.

I don't know the medical mafia circular strat.

[BROseidon]

Nope. It just means that your posts were consecutive, which is... what I based my theory on.

You're saying that it's scummy that I didn't vote after 83, instead opting to vote at the end of my spam wall.

WHEN I ALWAYS HOLD OFF ON VOTING UNTIL I FUCKING CATCH UP.

YOU'RE LYING.

STOP TRYING TO WORDSMITH YOUR WAY OUT OF IT.

FUCKING DIE.

VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF
VOTE: GIF

[BROseidon]

b/c Ghatokaca is scum.

And as we can see, this is because Ghato was playing... bad.

The conviction is way to hostile and strong for something that's based on very weak reasoning.

Which is yet another reason I think BRO/Ghato is crossbussing. The BRO -> Ghato push doesn't make much sense.

Or you're just being a fucking moron who can't read town trajectory.

Or you're scum.

One of these is a lot more plausible than the other.

[BROseidon]

@BRO: Since when did you scumread me?

When have I not been scum reading you.

[BROseidon]

You didn't "endeavor" to break the setup. You made a half-assed attempt at it and offered a little setup speculation.
Do you really think that makes you town in any respect?

More town than you and GiF, who've:

1) Proposed explicitly anti-town breaking or
2) Made no attempt to break the setup.

Among other things.

[BROseidon]

Or you're just being a fucking moron who can't read town trajectory.

Or you're scum.

this is an interesting accusation to make.

"interesting?"

Try "completely reasonable given the gamestate and my knowledge of my alignment.

Actually.

Fuck it.

Lynch me, then lynch GiF and Ghato.

Town win.

I'm fine with getting lynched for it.

[BROseidon]

GiF uses a "BRO/Ghato" distancing argument to implicitly distance from Ghato.

Too fucking easy.

Die scum.

[BROseidon]

"interesting?"

Try "completely reasonable given the gamestate and my knowledge of my alignment.

interesting considering you're currently failing to read both GiF and I for utterly trash reasons

Except they aren't trash.

[BROseidon]

Self vote, then.

Gladly. I'm a VT anyways.

VOTE: BROseidon

GiF scum claim and hammer me.

[BROseidon]

COME ON GIF I FUCKING DARE YOU.

HAMMER ME.

SCUMCLAIM.

LET IT GO DAMMIT.

[BROseidon]

:/

penguin wrecked this game.

[BROseidon]

Hey, I was right that GiF's early town read on you was shit.

And that's all that matters, when you think about it

Also, the circular hide strat is still probably the best you can do numerically.

[BROseidon]

np np. A game well played is a game well played.

Also, this setup would probably work better as a mini theme. As a micro I think it's too likely to have the fringe-cases that swing it horribly.