Micro 318: AP's Stolen Setup (GAME OVER)

[Turkish Van]

I have arrived.

/Confirm.

[Turkish Van]

VOTE: Firestarter

'Cuz Fires burn.

[Turkish Van]

We are first this day phase and are wholly acceptable.

Although I guess we all missed the first three days of the game...!

I'll sign my posts, Mala probably won't, but hers will likely come with pictures, so y'all will probably like her better anyways.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Yes, Jake, this is a hydra between Malakittens (aka Evil Regals which explains why we switched out the avatar because my newest obsession is love for Regina ) and Penguin_Alien.

I might. I have seen the preview for it also and it looks promising. I can't say the same for my partner, though.

I actually like the banter between Jake and Luca. I'm getting good vibes from Jake's side of it.

Going to keep our vote here a 'lil while longer. nothing really happened that's worthy of unvoting/voting someone else.



This is how I'm going to sign. If it annoys anyone I will add it to a spoiler tag, just let me know.

[Turkish Van]

kind of a pain for you to use that as a sig but whatever

I have a terrible time signing this is my creative approach to actually signing. It actually is fun to look at tumblr for images.

I'm going to not sig image here because it's obv this is Mala talking here.

[Turkish Van]

Yes, Jake, this is a hydra between Malakittens (aka Evil Regals which explains why we switched out the avatar because my newest obsession is love for Regina ) and Penguin_Alien.

Or did you switch out the avatar because your scum...?

I actually have no idea who that is or what she is from but I'm just assuming she is evil.

Just misunderstood. Dependent upon who's writing the episode apparently.

So who else do you think is evil? Since we can't actually lynch Regina.

VOTE: Luca

Serious vote.

You think he comes off worse than Jake? They both seem fairly chill to me, if slightly off-track in Jake's case.

And yes, I'll likely see the Maleficient movie eventually, although not in the theater unless friends drag me.

Keeping an eye on these Day Four shenanigans :eyes mod suspiciously:

--PA

[Turkish Van]

VOTE: Luca

Serious vote.

Why?

Keeping an eye on these Day Four shenanigans :eyes mod suspiciously:

--PA

I wondered about this initially.
Just flavor me thinks.

Thinking the same to be fair. Peng gave me notice of it last night on skype and i was like "whattttttttttt".

So one head likes my post and the other doesn't. Interesting

I dont really like luca's post cause why come after the person who pegged her as scum. If she's town this game why would she care?

What can we say we are misunderstood, jk. That's not really an excuse. Gut feels gave me good vibes from Jake-side.

Also at first I was wondering about Jingle's vote, but then I was searching for possibly a reason why he could have voted Luca. Luca has been posting elsewhere.

[Turkish Van]

VOTE: Luca

Scum found. ^_^

Also

@Etl: You have two voters on Jake, but counting only one of them.

Also Jake, why are you not voting..?

[Turkish Van]

Eh, I'm good with our vote. Luca hasn't done anything but object to people voting him, generally without any indication he'd rather be scum hunting.

Aronis, do you actually think Jingle was going to continue to play without backing up his choices at all? What are you actually finding scummy from him?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

@ tool- Not really. He hasn't done anything of note, and we're not yet to the point where that is a scumtell. Though that time is rapidly approaching.

@ picturehydra- Is 41 and 54 hydra dissonance or an evolution in reads?

At least for me it was an evolution of reads. I asked PA if I could vote Luca and she said yes after I pointed things out.

I didn't like the fact all he was doing was coming into the thread to defend himself and then leave. So I voted him.

Bang, boom, crushed.

Also considering PA and I are decently easy to read as some alignments I don't get why you 'need' a pressure vote to do so or can't explain the reasons for scum reading us.

~mala

[Turkish Van]

Another thing I don't like is Arnois calling people out for lurking yet it's

exactly

what Luca is doing. He's lurking and posting elsewhere.

... It's just Luca / Arnois just feel too easy.

So I say to you:

[Turkish Van]

Jingle, yeah, early game doesn't have much to interact with, but that doesn't mean it's not notable when the only way a player is interacting with the thread is defensively. If anything, the lack of ongoing discussions should make it easier to freeform scum hunt and not get locked into defensive mode.

What do *you* think of Luca's reaction to pressure? Neither Mala nor I is a particularly scary scum player, which is what I assume she meant in her earlier post, but having seen both our scum games (in some context; god knows which one of mine you had the misfortune of following) your comments would be welcome. Because right now your argument is that we're pressuring Luca even though you think his posting has been subpar.

Mod, PA head of hydra is V/LA through 4/9; hopefully more LA than V, but we'll see

--PA

[Turkish Van]

At this point, I'm willing to just lynch Luca.

VOTE: Luca

L-1.

So, I have talked to PA.

We have no problem voting you because I don't like this post. You aren't really scum hunting and you ignored her question about Jingle.

VOTE: Aronis

Well, I guess you've forced my hand here.

Claim: Innocent Child

You... Know you didn't have to play the IC card this way..

ugh, this is why I hate people who avoid games

vote jingle

that last line of his last post reads like a scum post

Agree w/ the first part here, but explain Jingle, pls.

[Turkish Van]

So after a period of talking to Peng in the midst of doing my research paper last night. We have concluded the following things:

The flavor is not just flavor.

Mala is jealous that Aronis got the actress who plays Sara Sidle from CSI.

Firestater bugs the crap out of me.

The Aronis lynch was not as informative as we would have hoped it to be.

And doing last minute research papers suck balls.

~Not all of the above is related to this game~

Drunk Mod, WOW!

~

I'm about to head out for the day, I'll post my thoughts on yesterdays events later.

It's been a few hours later. You even posted three hours later to defend yourself from your VLA.

Yeah I expect content from you soonish

This.

Yeah I expect content from you soonish

Have you actually forgotten I was V/LA up to and including the day you all lynched someone.

I didn't get a chance to post.

I will when I get to sit in front of my computer at some point this weekend.
Until then, don't let that hinder you or others.

Estimated time of arrival of content...?

Jake raises a good point. You might have been V/LA when we lynched, but you were not after the night phrase was in full bloom. What stopped you from posting up a draft. This game isn't that long, it shouldn't take you more than an hour to reread.

~Mala

[Turkish Van]

I'm posting from my phone.
It's the weekend and I'm out with my family.
Deal with it.

In the meantime, no-one should use this as an excuse to do nothing in the game.

Yes, but night phrase was a thursday and friday. What reason do you have then for not catching up and giving thoughts when Day has started?

Ours.

I'm still waiting to talk to Peng in regards to whether or not I want to give super secret information out.

[Turkish Van]

Ugh fire starter. Either play or replace out, final offer.

Pa and I were discussing this game and I fell asleep on her. We should have it no later than tommorow with what we want to say.

[Turkish Van]

I'm still waiting to talk to Peng in regards to whether or not I want to give super secret information out.

So yeah, this is just us kicking around that we're on a time limit here. Not that most micros go past four days, but I assume this one can't go into Day Zero, so.

From before, our comment about the D4 lynch not being very interesting/productive is that all living players were either on it or RVSing (Firestarter) or had holdover votes for partially stale reasons (Jingle mixing up my town and scum games). Wagon timing might still be useful though; will address it below.

Reads list in an attempt to jump start things here...

toolenduso: Everything from Day One is attacks on Aronis or questions to people that he never uses to jump into a dialogue. What stays my hand here is that he has a point on Jake. Yet looking over how Aronis's claim/retraction went down, it does seem like bad town play more than scum. Scum have no motivation to correct their fake claim and every reason to maintain it. From that POV, I can see Jake being upset with Aronis while reading him as town who has to be lynched anyways. The lack of follow-up to questions is what makes me put tool as leaning scum.

MTD: Blaming others for forcing the claim from Luca pings. It's like trying to get on the IC's good side for the day at least. Otherwise though I like the attention he's paying to game flow issues, town lean.

Jake: Town read for wide spectrum of interactions, not much of an apparent agenda, not worried about how he looks.

Lucky2u: Not getting a great vibe here. This feels like a caricature of his town game, but the resulting play is scummy.

Firestarter: Absolutely null, except for the part where we kind of wouldn't mind him being dead anyways. Let's put it this way: one more post talking about how it's not fair for people to be upset with his lack of content or how he hasn't had time to post, and I will move our vote there.

Jingle: I think his approaches to the thread show town motivation. Try to sort hard to read/unfamiliar slots, pressuring people for reasons, interacting, willing to give him a town lean.

(So I finished my reads without Mala's input, getting her opinion now...)

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Well, it helped me sort what I was thinking. Didn't expect to find toolenduso as scummy as I did, dumb as that sounds.

I'm inclined to vote Lucky, but I want to talk to my other head first.

What do you think of toolenduso, Jake?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

@tool: I don't get your point on Jake, actually.
You said him being pissed with Aronis indicated knowledge of his alignment because town-Jake wouldn't be pissed with a bad playing scum-Aronis. If following that logic, why would scum-Jake be pissed with bad playing town-Aronis? IMO that would make less sense even.

The point was that Jake said something that implied he knew that Aronis was town in advance of the flip, information town wouldn't have. But I'd argue that the way Aronis went about his claim debacle pointed toward him being town, but it was too risky to let him live anyways. So basically being good at figuring out people's alignments =/= being scum all the time.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

OK, so why are you doing something that got you vig shot and lynched as town in the same game?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Lucky2u: Not getting a great vibe here. This feels like a caricature of his town game, but the resulting play is scummy.
--PA

did you really write this PA? This statement seems to imply that you have a good understanding of my town game. Yet we have only played the ONE game with each other as players. Before that game you had told me that you didn't know what I was like as player, so am I too understand that you now know my town game enough to know what me faking it looks like?

so much

FoS: Turkish Van

Why no vote? Why no engaging with all the other people who think you're scummy? Why no comments on the rest of my reads? Where else do you think scum are?

And yeah, I'm going to do my utmost to read you on whatever experience I have. But you're also being objectively scummy, so.

--PA, who will read toolenduso's walls later and discuss with Mala.

[Turkish Van]

Fair enough... let me address some of that. Why is the lack of vote a problem for people? If I voted here, I swear someone would be saying I was too quick to vote. In fact, that happened in the last game we were in. I quoted something you said, commented on it, voted you, and got heat for the next few pages. I'm still not voting you.

Yeah, last game you presented me as attacking people for supposed sarcastic statements that were actual serious statements. The interpretation issues looked reachy. It wasn't a matter of you voting quickly but rather your reasons.

I don't understand your read on tool. I'm not following the train of thought from the start of the read, through your comments on jake, and back to how that makes tool scum. Your absolutely wrong about that awesome Lucky2u guy. How can you be null on Firestarter when you want him dead? Your reason doesn't make sense. He has been delaying and that reads null to you but you still want to kill him for it even though he could be town. So you want to policy lynch him? On day 2? With LyLo being the likely outcome if he is town? Personally I think his delaying is scum motivated, we may eventually vote together on him but your reasons make me uneasy.

tool-wise, his Day One play didn't seem to do much except tunnel in on the eventual mislynch. His case on Jake initially looked like some actual scum hunting, but when I went back and looked at it, I don't think it was accurate, as has been discussed quite a bit, so I'll stop there.

Haven't talked about him at length with Mala yet, but I'm not convinced by his reads list TBH. He puts us at null-scum even though the only thing he doesn't like about us is where our vote on Aronis fell on the wagon. Yet the rest of our ISO is good?

His other reads: I think his scum reads are weak. He focuses a lot around the Aronis wagon and positioning on it in a way that I think ascribes a lot of importance to an isolated wagon that was pushed over the edge by a town lie. I think both his scum reads are easy to back away from if they flipped town, and I'm just having a hard time town reading him.

I want Firestarter to do something. He knows that everyone wants him to post, and that he either fails to do so or posts about how mean everyone is in wanting him to post is sketchy as hell. If he doesn't flake out, his dodging looks enough like insecure scum that I'm OK pressuring him. That we likely have only one more mislynch without losing the game (since the IC dying strongly implies no protective roles) isn't a good reason to let him whine his way into said LyLo.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Bad vote from Guyett is bad.

VOTE: Guyett

Convince us otherwise.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Yup, popcorn mass claim, and maybe we have some actual discussion before hammering this time.

And I will be requesting an explanation of the cop choice afterwards.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Mrs. Jankis, VT.

Guyett, explanation for your investigation choice?

[Turkish Van]

...because Firestarter was useless?

--PA, as was the previous unsigned one.

[Turkish Van]

Trying to decide if scum would claim two-shot in a game of one-shots. Also trying to decide if we would really have an IC and a one-shot cop in a micro. Maybe. Will think on it later, especially since we need to consider how the potential partnerships shake out with one of {Guyett, MTD} and one of {Jingle, tool}

Happy birthday, ETL! You have the best birthday(!)

--PA

[Turkish Van]

...so everyone wants to vote MTD. Gut says that points to an accurate cop result with the partner bussing like mad.

Will do promised analysis tonight.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Ok, tool, nice analysis, although you come to the wrong conclusion.
Tell me, why do you think saying that firestarter didn't use the shot makes guyett's claim better? I mean, it's not like he had any choice to construct a fakeclaimed guilty any other way, did he?

@TV: How about one mislead townie and the scumpartner going with the fakeclaim for a quick win?

The thing about that is that a scum buddy would know it was fake and should have been hanging back to get a sense of how everyone else was swallowing the claim.

Keep running out of energy here. I'll triple ISO Guyett/MTD-Jingle-toolin the next 24 hours one way or another.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

A thought before I begin this: we're obviously in a time-limited set-up. Four days with one kill per day/night gets us to 3p LyLo with no missing kills. A 1-shot BP as the only role able to make us miss a kill has a very limited effect on the game state, just making us lynch in 4p MyLo, at which point I'd like to think we'd have had one effective universal town read that would make for few drawbacks to lynching at MyLo versus LyLo.

Add in a 2-shot JK, things change. Even if it was used N1 and N2, N1 with 7 non-JK players targeting randomly has a better than 2/8 (yes, 1/4, player numbers help with my thinking here, hush) chance of blocking the NK (since the JK presumably can't self-target). N2 if we're at six players it's better than 2/6 odds of stopping the kill. Toss in a BP and the part where the assumed JK would protect the IC should he claim and forcing town to lynch two scum in four day phases suddenly makes more sense. Also assuming even if the IC doesn't reveal the JK isn't targeting randomly and the numbers improve. Especially if we'd hit scum in the first two lynches, the JK targeting scummy players would serve much like a tracker in confirming/denying their scum status.

I'm doing my analysis now, but I'm going to post this separately because it feels quite relevant.

[Turkish Van]

Ugh, previous post was PA. Anyways.

OK, haven't had time to discuss this with Mala, but here goes my (likely) disappointing thoughts. Ruling out Guyett-MTD as ludicrous, Jingle-tool is effectively impossible. Some of this might be individual observations, especially when rereading someone's ISO for the first time in a bit.

Guyett-Jingle:

43, Firestarter dismisses the Day Four stuff as flavor. I suspect scum were informed about the consequences, and his dismissal feels scummy. Jingle in 62 goes to great lengths to call out lots of players for info, including MTD, but not Firestarter. Given Firestarter's on V/LA, it says little about that pairing. 76, Jingle shows interest in sorting us. This comes off as a very towny attitude in its honesty of 'think they might be scum, but they need to be sorted ASAP anyways.' Not lynched, not even wagoned, but sorted. Scum is more likely to be posturing about getting us lynched. The shade of grey is towny to me.

Jingle's admission that he mixed up my alignment in another game he was using to determine my alignment here also feels very town. Scum who wanted to pursue that argument could have pulled another game of mine where I was scum and claimed to be working from that. More germane to the partner analysis, he calls out Firestarter among others but then gives him a pass for V/LA. This is really dicey for a partner interaction. Blatantly disregarding him just doesn't feel like a partner interaction, especially when one's partner is shaping up to be a liability.

Then in 146 he wants Firestarter on record. Again, this kind of coaching with a town mislynch on the table seems unlikely. Either you cut bait on your partner or you wait until the lynch goes through and correct in the scum QT then. Encouraging a partner who's likely to misspeak to post is odd behavior.

Firestarter in 180 disclaims responsibility for anything that happened. And then derps around a lot. Yet Jingle defends him in posts like 196. I'm a crap busser, read: almost unable to do so, and I'd be working on distancing here. In 223 he sets up for a Firestarter lynch if Lucky flips town. Again, unlikely partner behavior.

As soon as Guyett replaces in, Jingle asks him about MTD. This...is pretty odd for how things have fallen out. Today, in 310, Guyett cites the previous day's read on MTD as justification for his cop usage. I...don't know that I see Jingle setting Guyett up for the read yesterday and them being that in step for this gambit even before night phase planning (and I'm assuming no scum daytalk, as it would be a pretty strong addition in this kind of set-up relative to claimed possible town power.

Odds of a Guyett-Jingle scum team: I'd say low.

MTD-Jingle:

42: MTD is willing to support Luca over Jake. Never mind that Jake is a veteran player scum probably wouldn't enjoy tangling with and that opening the door for such was superfluous.

62: This would involve scum-Jingle throwing his buddy MTD into a pool of him and two townies (us and Luca) and asking two town to pick the scum in such a way that he'd presumably value their opinions. This is a very dangerous move from scum. MTD immediately calling him out on it doesn't feel like a scum-scum interaction either.

That Jingle groups MTD with us in 101 is a bit shady, but it's not inconsistent. Also, he goes the trouble of asking MTD a question that doesn't leave MTD much room for spin or ambiguity. An odd way to treat a teammate.

204 Jingle rules out a Lucky-MTD team but thinks one of them is scum. Which sets him up to vote MTD after a Lucky mislynch. Eh, scum could weasel out, but it's an odd set-up to make in the first place.

The willingness to lynch MTD does look like a possible buddy, but it's kind of late in the day. I'd expect scum who know their buddy's been caught red-handed to jump on the wagon in word if not in vote. Want to see how tool reacted in comparison.

Odds of a Jingle-MTD scum team: If Jingle is scum with anyone, it's with MTD. It's not perfect though, and it doesn't feel right.

Guyett-tool:

What gets me about tool in rereading his ISO in this process is that I'm not seeing a lot of scum-hunting from him, more criticism of other people's conclusions without taking real stances himself. See 39 and 84. Then his question to Firestarter in 86 feels throwaway. It's similar to one Jingle asked, but it comes from a less organic place. And his interest from Firestarter is a specific question, when Firestarter didn't post anything useful at all yet (or ever)?

I don't like 162 for some reason. He's putting a lot of stock in the quicklynch, and I don't like the start of his argument against Jake, especially since it's the first scum hunting he's doing.

He dismisses Firestarter's lack of contribution as null in 193 and acts like he's fuzzy about the V/LA issue. Which seems like a scummier stance to take on a partner. He asks what the scum motivation for lurking is, when he's just said it's null and that the guy was actually absent.

tool's reads in 229 are sketchy to me. Firestarter at this point has blatantly come into the thread and refused to participate. Yet he's still null. His scum reads are based on wagon placement. He assigns all this meaning to a five-member wagon, calling us possible scum for it, but that's in the face of saying we're otherwise towny.

Guyett's town read on us and tool, while gratifying in our case, is incredibly superficial, even for drunk!Guyett. Then tool has no problem hammering when Lucky won't claim. Like, doesn't even try to change his mind, just hammers. And sets up to lynch Guyett the next day if necessary, but only if Lucky flips scum, which he would be in a position to know wouldn't happen.

292 with Jake pushing tool in twilight is also worth noting to me.

You know what else is interesting? Guyett comes in with two scum reads, finds out one of them is wrong, and still keeps the other as his top read. Also not sure why he checked out a scum read as opposed to a null read like Jingle (assumed so since Jingle wasn't given a read at the end of Day Two)

I don't like the idea that Guyett's claim makes as much sense as MTD's in a set-up with an IC. tool can talk about being uninformed about set-up spec all he likes, but clearly one of these things is not like the other in game function.

Odds of a Guyett-tool team: Pretty good; I'll admit it's my frontrunner right now.

MTD-tool:

tool's question to MTD in 86 was clearly an afterthought. But MTD's response is very reactive for a scum buddy. Their interaction overall is very low. MTD comments on tool in 119 but I'm not sure what he's referencing. (if you're reading this far, can you clarify?)

Also not sure MTD undermines scumbuddy tool's argument against Jake like he does in 217. Ignores it, sure, but counters it? Not very organized. And then we come back to tool putting MTD as a scum read when he has nice categories like 'null' and 'null-scum' available.

What really comes across here (and yes, I'm fluffing over the end of this, I'm tired) is that the tool-MTD interactions increase as the game goes on rather than decrease. Generally I'd expect a scum team with an experienced player like tool to attempt to interact in early game and maybe that falls off later on. This is the opposite.

Odds of a tool-MTD team: Better than any of the Jingle teams but I didn't get a lot of explicit scum-scum vibes.

Conclusion: Having been nearly burned by a Mafia fake-claiming scum at XyLo in Mini 1545 recently, I really don't like the surprise!cop claim, which might be biasing me. And I'm not moving on this until Mala weighs in. But I'm inclined to vote Guyett right now and would be strongly inclined to vote tool if we're still around at the next XyLo.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

No one's actually given anything I'd consider useful/persuasive. We had mass claim, people talked about flavor, you said that basically either claim being town would involve the player messing up the execution of the role (which, yes, not using a cop shot N1 is something I'd consider messing up). So for me to have waited for anyone to give thoughts would involve thoughts being generated that are worth reading. And right now neither Guyett nor MTD thoughts are super-useful to me anyways.

And anyways in your scenario I...hung back, saw town wanted to lynch my buddy MTD, and *then* jumped in to conclude that Guyett is the scum? Besides, I kind of wanted to see how MTD reacted to my implying that I was also against him. No resignation as I'd expect from nailed scum, to be frank.

Set-up spec-wise, I think I explained my thoughts pretty thoroughly. Guyett-town means we had two informative roles and a weak protective role. MTD-town means we had an informative, weak protective, and interfering. That the game seems to be artificially limited to four lynch chances favors the latter, as does the part where this is an AP set-up.

Would bet Guyett's an x-shot role cop, but that's neither here nor there.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

hi, pa, told me to confirm we aren't scum by not hammering.

[Turkish Van]

Yeah, Skype message got garbled. But we can only be scum with MTD now. If others would like to either confirm the same or end the suspense, do have at it. Since I think we now have the scum team voting MTD, I'm not going to waste my time on appeals to unvote.

tool, you say you don't think I overreached in my analysis, yet you're only interested in the part where I'm supposedly wrong about you. If I'm wrong about you, I must be wrong elsewhere too, yes? Why no interest thus far in discussing the specifics of my thoughts?

Did you ever go back to my set-up spec to consider what I was saying, if you get what I was saying now?

Interesting that you want to discuss the Jake NK. I thought he wanted Guyett dead myself, and he wasn't being scum read by anyone I remember. Seems unlikely the NK motivation was to set you up.

MTD, why did you JK tool last night?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

...fucking hell, we're not supposed to have the chance to screw up LyLo until 3p LyLo; didn't y'all get the memo?

And hey, tool, we're now officially super-duper confirmed town. So talk to us.

That goes for all y'all. Given that the only possible teams now are Jingle-MTD and Guyett-tool, this is basically the aforementioned 3p LyLo with lots more voices.

Going to repost my analyses of those two teams in my immense hubris and make Mala talk to me about this game when we actually coordinate next.

...wait. tool can still technically be scum with MTD. tool, care to confirm that one way or the other?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

MTD-Jingle:

42: MTD is willing to support Luca over Jake. Never mind that Jake is a veteran player scum probably wouldn't enjoy tangling with and that opening the door for such was superfluous.

62: This would involve scum-Jingle throwing his buddy MTD into a pool of him and two townies (us and Luca) and asking two town to pick the scum in such a way that he'd presumably value their opinions. This is a very dangerous move from scum. MTD immediately calling him out on it doesn't feel like a scum-scum interaction either.

That Jingle groups MTD with us in 101 is a bit shady, but it's not inconsistent. Also, he goes the trouble of asking MTD a question that doesn't leave MTD much room for spin or ambiguity. An odd way to treat a teammate.

204 Jingle rules out a Lucky-MTD team but thinks one of them is scum. Which sets him up to vote MTD after a Lucky mislynch. Eh, scum could weasel out, but it's an odd set-up to make in the first place.

The willingness to lynch MTD does look like a possible buddy, but it's kind of late in the day. I'd expect scum who know their buddy's been caught red-handed to jump on the wagon in word if not in vote. Want to see how tool reacted in comparison.

Odds of a Jingle-MTD scum team: If Jingle is scum with anyone, it's with MTD. It's not perfect though, and it doesn't feel right.

Guyett-tool:

What gets me about tool in rereading his ISO in this process is that I'm not seeing a lot of scum-hunting from him, more criticism of other people's conclusions without taking real stances himself. See 39 and 84. Then his question to Firestarter in 86 feels throwaway. It's similar to one Jingle asked, but it comes from a less organic place. And his interest from Firestarter is a specific question, when Firestarter didn't post anything useful at all yet (or ever)?

I don't like 162 for some reason. He's putting a lot of stock in the quicklynch, and I don't like the start of his argument against Jake, especially since it's the first scum hunting he's doing.

He dismisses Firestarter's lack of contribution as null in 193 and acts like he's fuzzy about the V/LA issue. Which seems like a scummier stance to take on a partner. He asks what the scum motivation for lurking is, when he's just said it's null and that the guy was actually absent.

tool's reads in 229 are sketchy to me. Firestarter at this point has blatantly come into the thread and refused to participate. Yet he's still null. His scum reads are based on wagon placement. He assigns all this meaning to a five-member wagon, calling us possible scum for it, but that's in the face of saying we're otherwise towny.

Guyett's town read on us and tool, while gratifying in our case, is incredibly superficial, even for drunk!Guyett. Then tool has no problem hammering when Lucky won't claim. Like, doesn't even try to change his mind, just hammers. And sets up to lynch Guyett the next day if necessary, but only if Lucky flips scum, which he would be in a position to know wouldn't happen.

292 with Jake pushing tool in twilight is also worth noting to me.

You know what else is interesting? Guyett comes in with two scum reads, finds out one of them is wrong, and still keeps the other as his top read. Also not sure why he checked out a scum read as opposed to a null read like Jingle (assumed so since Jingle wasn't given a read at the end of Day Two)

I don't like the idea that Guyett's claim makes as much sense as MTD's in a set-up with an IC. tool can talk about being uninformed about set-up spec all he likes, but clearly one of these things is not like the other in game function.

Odds of a Guyett-tool team: Pretty good; I'll admit it's my frontrunner right now.

So looking at this, I'm not sure why scum-tool with scum-MTD would go for the bus now when we're presumably lined up to lynch Guyett. I think Jingle said this, but it's late and I want to document my thought process too...

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Why did you end the day and cut off discussion?

--PA

[Turkish Van]

Not in a hurry to vote, but Mala and I agree that we won't drag this out more than another 72 hours.

tool, how would you expect town-MTD to react to your ploy?

Dual Firestarter/Guyett-MTD ISO readthrough:

Ok, I will not say much about Firestarter, as I feel everything has been said for now, now we wait for content.
I am somewhat compelled to vote Lucky, but I am still not sure, as just going for that hammer is, well idk, but that's WIFOM, so maybe Lucky, why did you quickhammer and not wait for Fire to answer? It's not like we had no time...

I don't see this from a buddy. Scum buddy saddled with a potential mislynch is likely getting themselves on record as being against that lurkaderp behavior.

Also, obviously I agree Firestarter needs to get in here. Yesterday evening has passed last time I checked. On the other hand I don't quite see that as a reason to vote him right now, as it doesn't seem like it's necessarily a scum tactic and we really shouldn't policy lynch at this point.

Less clear here, but sentiment was still against Firestarter. A Firestarter scum lynch at that junction gets MTD strung up the next day.

MTD makes a point of greeting Guyett, Guyett puts town-Lucky at L-1, but then basically sets up for an MTD bus almost immediately thereafter? He knows they're one day from XyLo with a Lucky lynch; why risk 3p LyLo as a lurker slot?

Then we hit yesterday, at which point I'd assume everything's basically scripted anyways.

As far as this:

@TV and Jingle, I would like you to respond specifically to this point I made in my first post of the day:

Srsly, either you just scumclaimed when there is still a day to go or Guyett faked a guilty as town, I can't get either of the two into my head.

Let's look at this from the point of view of MTD being town:

-Tool scumclaiming is a possibility, but MTD doesn't know why I would do it
-Guyett faked a guilty as town...

which means that scum has to be in {tool, TV, Jingle}.

The bolded would be

impossible if MTD were town

. From townMTD's point of view, I could be scum, but how could Jingle or TV be scum if neither of them hammered MTD when he was at L-1?

Now

that

is a scumslip.

MTD says he can't wrap his head around either possibility. You claiming scum before the game's over or Guyett being town having faked a guilty on known-town-MTD implying that we or Jingle failed to hammer town-MTD. He's not saying one of those must be true; he's saying he can't believe either is true. I don't think this is a slip.

[Turkish Van]

...crap, ^ is --PA

[Turkish Van]

The point tool is trying to make is that MTD's second response to tool doesn't make sense, when tool fishing for reactions doesn't make sense. By his own admission, tool should have known the remaining scum. It is illogical to claim scum (which he did) in order to get a scumslip when his lynch loses him the game. He's caught, and lost, and he's doing an admirable job defending an undefendable position. Please hammer, TV. I don't see any argument convincing me at this point and you can blame the loss on me if I'm wrong.

Not interested in blaming anyone if we pick wrong.

We'll vote tomorrow when Mala has time to read.

My opinions haven't changed. And tool hasn't really addressed set-up issues either.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

-;; I want pa to wake up. I think I made a decision.

Jingle? Explain to me why you chose to vote Lucky and didn't change your vote that day.

Tool? Explain to me why you hammered luky over Guyett.
Also answer our questions.

Quoting for you.

And Jingle's one of the bonafide good guys. We'll talk on Skype when I get home again in a few hours.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

And tool hasn't really addressed set-up issues either.

That was what the latter half of this post was for.

Yeah...not all town PR duos are created equal, nor does that address the countdown/time limit issue.

Talking to Mala right now.

--PA

[Turkish Van]

So as per the above, Mala and I have talked, and we agree on tool as scum.

MTD, if it's you and Guyett, well-played. (but don't answer that; ETL likes to do her own reveals as per the game rules...!)

VOTE: toolenduso

Until post-game...