Micro 328: Cult Vengeful -- GAME OVER

[HighShroomish]

VOTE: HAYATO

You haven't posted yet.
And why would anyone put someone at L-1 on page one, and why would another person even THINK that's even slightly okay.

[HighShroomish]

Actually, a no lynch is a surprisingly good idea. It gives us a better chance to lynch scum tomorrow, although, it provides a higher risk if we lynch town and they shoot town, and if we lynch town and they shoot town today, it's already game over.

UNVOTE
VOTE: NOLYNCH

[HighShroomish]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%
-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

[HighShroomish]

I never said I was factoring in player ability and the like, snark. No odds do.

[HighShroomish]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)

wrong! because if no lynch on day 1 and cult recruits on night 1, then its 2(scum)/5(players)=40%(chance to lynch a scum and if we dont lynch we lose). so here we only have one shot at lynching and if we fail in that, we lose because then there will be 2(scum)vs2(town).

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)

wrong! if there is a no lynch and scum doesnt recruit then on day 1, it will be 1(scum)/5(players)=20%(chance to lynch scum. if we mis lynch then it will be day 2). on day 2, it will be 1(scum)/4(players)=25%(chance to lynch scum, and if we mislynch it iwll be day 3) on day 3, it will be, 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33%(chance to get a scum, and all this calculation is only valid if scum doesnt recruit.)

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)

wrong! if we lynch town on d1 and there is no vengekill plus cult recruits, then we will lose. as there will be a 2(scum)vs 2(town) situation.

D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%

and 6v1 and 6v2 doesnt make any sense at all!!

-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

my contradictions with your calculations are in bold!

and when i said worst case scenario i meant if we dont lynch cult on day 1 itself! that should was pretty obvious.

have you even read my post HS??!! it doesnt seems you have!
infact, it doesnt seems you have read your own post!!
it seems you have just copy pasted that stuff from somewhere and posted it. do you even know what my point was??!!

and lets just directly get to the point, without assuming that scum would do stupid things! its a 'lynch' argument vs. a 'no lynch' argument.

lets talk no lynch first.

if we

no lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum doesnt recruit on night 1)

d1- 5 players alive and we no lynch!

n1- if scum doesnt recruits.

d2- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of getting scum. which is less. and if we lynch the scum we won, but if we misslynch, then its night 2.

n2- scum obv. recruits.

d3- now that the scum has recruited, its 2(scums)/4(players). as number of scum is equal to number of towns, scum wins.

case-2 (scum recruits on night 1)

d1-we no lynch.

n1- cult recruits.

d2- as cult has recruited, its 2(scums)/5(players)= 40% chance to recruit a scum. if we lynch town we lose. if we lynch scum we move to night 2.

n2- no actions happen

d3- as we lynched 1 scum on d2. its 1(scum)/4(players)= 25% chance to lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town, we proceed to n3.

n3- no actions.

d4- as we lynched a town on d3, its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch town, we lose. if we lynch scum we win.


now lets consider If we

lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum recruits on n1)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching a scum.if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town we proceed to n1.

n1- scum recruits, so its 2(scum)/4(town)=

50%

for a successful vengekill. if we can kill cult we win(Night Action and will precede Cult Recruitment in resolution order). if recruited player is killed, we will proceed to day 2. and if a town dies from venge kill, we loose.

d2- as recruited player is venge killed, its 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch scum we win, if we lynch town, we lose.

case-2 (scum doesnt recruit on n1, but recruits in n2)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we dont lynch scum and lynch town, we move to n1.

n1- its 1(scum)/4(players)=25% of venge killing a scum. if we vengekill scum, we win. if we vengekill town, we move to d2.

note: we have to vengekill on n1, as we dont know if scum decided to recruit of not. so no venge killing on n1 is not an option.

d2- its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch a scum we win, if we lynch a town, we lose. if we no lynch then we move to n2.

n2- cult chooses to recruit 1 player.

d3- its 2(scum)/3(players) and scum wins!


i think i cant be more clear.

First off- where you say I'm wrong, I'm actually right. You need to check your math again.
Where you first say I'm wrong 1st- you are assuming that we will Mislynch and that that automatically means that the lynched vengeful will kill town. If he/she kills scum, we proceed to the next day.
2nd- You introduced a completely different scenario that I even address later in my post. And you're wondering if I'm reading posts?
3rd- I'm actually correct here as well. I just forget to put LOSE.
You're correct about the 6v1 and 6v2 thing.
Your worst case scenario failed to mention the part where the lynched town kills another town that wasn't the recruited target. THAT is the worst case scenario. Not yours.
In your case 1 for the No Lynch- why would scum obviously recruit? And if it was obvious that scum would recruit, why would we lynch? Again, you fail to go into various situations that would happen. So again, your odds are lacking.
When you ask why haven't I answered questions- I hit the "first unread post" button and it linked me straight to this page. But the thing is- I have answered questions. Your blowing shit out of proportion. I mean seriously. ONE question which was "did you even get my point" which I don't feel the need to answer. Unless you meant the "explain your logic" in which I will point your own question back at you- did you even get my point? Or the line of rhetorical question Snarky asked me. Or, oh, is that it?

[HighShroomish]

@kab - show me where I'm baselessly segueing with you and please explain why it's baseless argueung.
Same thing with the "misreps''
And by the way, and you should know this already kab, I use my phone for nearly every post. Thank you very much.

@Snarky - I actually considered that option in my numbers. Thank you very much.

[HighShroomish]

Here's a comment on your numbers post- on you scenario of a D1 lynch-
Chance to vengekill scum- 50%. Original chance to lynch scum- 20%.
With your situation you count killing either the targeted recruit or the leader as a win. I'm too tired and pissed(NOT anybody here) to say anymore.
P-Edit: Go look at my numbers. I put in that situation. Go read my post. CAREFULLY. Don't try to avoid the fucking truth.

UNVOTE
VOTE: SNARKY

Happy now?

[HighShroomish]

Yes, I'm happy and relieved. Now,what's your reasoning on your vote on me, other than I don,t agree with your math?

Anyone but HS can skip the rest of the post, cause it's uninteresting number debate.

Chance to vengekill scum- 50%. Original chance to lynch scum- 20%.
With your situation you count killing either the targeted recruit or the leader as a win. I'm too tired and pissed(NOT anybody here) to say anymore.

I haven't said that at all, I said that if we lynch a recruit townie, we go to D2 and have another shot of killing the cult leader (1/4) which is completely true, you can't say no, it's a fact. And don't say it is not what I said in my original post, it's EXACTLY what I said in my original number post, go reread it.

And is this the situation your talking about?

Here's something even more convincing for not No Lynching: We no lynch, cult doesn't recruit, we lost our vengekill and we've got 20% chance of winning D2, with no interactions to analyze.

Yes, I saw you considered it. But you considered it as one of the options. Yet it's not one of the options, it's optimal play for the Cult if we No Lynch. It's what's going to happen, 100% of the odds, if the Cult leader is not completely retarded. How is this advantageous for town? (Oh and don't answer, it's just not advantageous for town at all).

Okay, I don't even know how I read your numbers post before. I can't get halfway through it now.

[HighShroomish]

HS: If you were lynched and you're town, who would you Vengekill?

Nope.

[HighShroomish]

HS: If you were lynched and you're town, who would you Vengekill?

Actually, this is really starting to bug me.

UNVOTE
VOTE: IDK

[HighShroomish]

HS: If you were lynched and you're town, who would you Vengekill?

Nope.

You'd Vengekill "Nope"? Funny, I don't remember seeing him in this game.

HS: If you were lynched and you're town, who would you Vengekill?

Actually, this is really starting to bug me.

UNVOTE
VOTE: IDK

And why would that be?

My plan was that I would hammer vote you, as you are a scum read at the moment, but if you turn out to be town, you'd have a Vengekill. With that Vengekill, you'd have a 25% chance of nailing scum and still win the game on D1. I'm not scum (at least according to my role card), and I don't think that Snarky is scum. That would bring it down to you, hayato, and kaboom. If we lynch you, you turn out to be town, and you Vengekill one of those, if my reads are right, you'd have a 50% chance of winning the game for the town.

So what's bugging you? Is it that your one-man scum team is losing right now?

Simple: I get hammered, and I've told whom I'm Vengekilling. That means the scum recruiter knows not to recruit that person, meaning they win. I'm absolutely not allowing that to happen.

[HighShroomish]

How did I pull that out... Wow.
GG everyone! That was my first scum game, and I learned a ton from it.

[HighShroomish]

And thanks to Aegor for modding!