Micro 437: Dolphin Mafia - Game Over - Perfect TOWN WIN

[TierShift]

Hi. So here's what's happening. Dolphin's are claiming, and we are lynching outside of that.
Because:
1. Scum will know who town dolphin is before evn making the nightkill
2. Day 1 lynches are often town over scum so we can see dolphin's voting patterns and make a better guess day 2.

[TierShift]

I take back #2. Obvscum vs obvtown dolphins can be lynched, it's just that I'd rather wait until day two for associatives and stuff on the scum dolphin.

[TierShift]

Why didn't you claim in your first post?

[TierShift]

Yeah, ok, that's L-1.

Aronis why u change avi

[TierShift]

Why tho, notmaf?

[TierShift]

i wanna vote aronis, but should probably hold on to my earlier plan.

[TierShift]

Vote:Tiershift are you going to town lead this game?

Prob yeah, sup with that?

Now that both dolphins have claimed, lynching inside them today guarantees us 3p LyLo over 5p LyLo by lynching outside. Thoughts?

I have the feeling in will rob us of associatives. 3P lylo is gonna be real hard.
But thwn again 5p lylo is hard. *Shrug*

[TierShift]

Zzzx are you claiming dolphin or not?
Starbucks, why don't you cooperate on thinkng out our plan? How you feel like not lynchng either of you or aronis today?

[TierShift]

You have daytalk, star?

[TierShift]

Because I'd rather not lynch someone I consider confirmed town.

Haha! What good way to convince us you are town!
Atm, I don't think either of aronis or starbucks looks particularly townish.

The problem with lynching within is that we're completely robbed of associatives. We'll end up in 3p lylo, or even worse, in 5p with a buddy that's bussed well, with nothing to go on and generally having a low chance of winning.

I know lynching town outside today could be horrible, but I'm positive we can find at least the scum within the dolphins tomorrow and then have more chance to win the lylo.

Starbucks totally isn't helping here. I want you to analyse the other players as to convince me you are town.

[TierShift]

Star is at L-1 because aronis will quickhammer regardless of alignment.
Flub, talk instead of vote.

[TierShift]

Why am I bleeding town, aronis?

I agree with starbucks 56.

[TierShift]

Starbucks is still at L-1

[TierShift]

VOTE: flub

[TierShift]

Who's scum with star?

[TierShift]

Lol ur both star now
Have you ever seen my scumgame aronis?

[TierShift]

I asked you a question earlier you didnt answer

[TierShift]

Oh I didn't ask you a question but asked you to talk. Why's your vote where tis?

[TierShift]

You were in that? Oh well, that was one of my shittier scumgames. I am able to pull off the play that I've shown here as scum beyond any doubt. I find it weird you have so much confidence in your townread on me.

[TierShift]

Thumbs up for the avi tho

My goal is to understand why your townread is this strong. I currently don't understand the town reasoning behind that read and can definitely understand the 'let's townread tier because he's gonna be active and have a strong voice and a townread will be easy and in turn will make him less likely to lynch me'

[TierShift]

Why does it make you want to change your mind?

[TierShift]

Right, but do you think me scummier for it?

[TierShift]

Meh, I'm not really getting out of you what I want. Your townread is stull based on asking questions from a town mindset?
Hoping to get some reads out of star.

[TierShift]

Ok wat I hope you are kidding.

[TierShift]

Okay, am I getting this right.
NO ONE BUT ARONIS S CLAIMNG DOLPHIN?
Check role pm's guys

[TierShift]

If this really is the case I want everyone to state they read their role pm and are vanilla. We'll hang that scum tomorrow.

Don't give me the excuse of 'forgot reading my role pm lol' because I WILL hang you. And you will be to blame for letting the awful scum aronis get away.

Read my role pm, am a VT.

[TierShift]

Are we lynching aronis's buddy notmafia today?

[TierShift]

Flubber putting himself in the lynch pool for.today

for no reason

seems town,

Do you have any idea what you are saying

[TierShift]

Flubber scumdolph would claim to prevent Aronis from being clear.

And to prevent himself from being quicklynched tomorrow.

I don't remember notmaf as someone with faulty thought processes.
VOTE: notmaf
Why not join me, xay? Why are you on star?
Notmaf, why xay?

[TierShift]

Aronis at L-1 ftr

[TierShift]

Was what I was going to say until you said he was at L-1

Is this regarding aronis's L-1 or starbucks's?
Why did it change your read?

[TierShift]

Agreed.

[TierShift]

Steal?

Steal them all you want. You guys are the ones who have to look harder for a vc if it is not at the top of a page.

[TierShift]

[TierShift]

Star, you need to talk to me about your reads. I don't deem it mpossible for you to be a goon pulling a gambit.

Reducing EV by 50% for 20% d1 win chance, not one I'm going to take

You're talking weirdly again. What is up? Can you explain this?

[TierShift]

Okay, I'm going to calc for you. I'm doing the math in a minute but I can already tell you that either play has the same EV. EV data after dolphin lynch are pulled from the EV project.

Spoiler: lynch dolphins day 1

50% town dolphin lynched-->2-1 mtn 33.3% town win
50% scum dolphin lynched-->4-1 mtn 46.7% town win
Gives EV of 40%

Spoiler: lynch dolphins day 2

20% scum lynch-->100% town win
80% town lynch-->
50% scum lynch-->33.3% town win
50% town lynch-->0% town win
Gives EV of 20+13.33=33.33%

Huh wtf can someone tell me where my math went wrong
Actually
We should lynch within the dolphins.

[TierShift]

Look, notmafia.

If we hit scum dolphin, we have two chances of identifying his buddy.
If we hit town dolphin, we have one chance of identifying buddy.
If only town dolphin claims day 1, we have both day 1 and 3 to hit the buddy. Two chances.

As you can see, it's far more optimal for scum to claim dolphin. That's why your 'putting yourself in the lynch pool for no reason' doesn't work as an argument.

[TierShift]

Town by virtue of aronis being scum. Not super sure though.

Would you please check my math, as I have the feeling that either option should have the same EV?
Why is xay aroniss buddy?

[TierShift]

I believe in notmaf
I believe in star

I want more from flub
I want more from aronis

I want to pit zzzx vs xay and see how it turns out.

[TierShift]

VOTE: aronis
Just reread page 1, his awkward vote on flub alone is enough for me to lynch him.

Flub, you're dying tonight. Who do you think aronis's buddy is?

[TierShift]

Just two more votes, leggo

[TierShift]

Lol caught scum pls lynch

[TierShift]

Oh, you're beng lynched for trying to hard to be pro-town and looking really awkward in the process. You have not raised a single point aganst flub and you are just muttering at this moment.

[TierShift]

Starbucks, when I looked through page 1 just a day ago, I saw aronis hugely appeasing me and I am wondering how you can possibly see otherwise. He was the one who was awkward, not me, and you shouldn't mistake me interacting only with the guys that were around for forcing early interaction, which is a pretty flawed concept in general. Both notmaf and aronis were around, and both were questioned with the same type of useless question, because there was no content yet; you somehow interpret me trying to move the game forward page 1 by asking questions to two people as interactng with scumbuddy and doing exactly the same with another player to cover up; that's highly arbitrary.

Other than that, I'm already expressing disgust with aronis in post 18; something I've done continuously. I haven't tried to shift attention away from aronis, which I'd definitely do as scum. I don't know why you're calling my interactions awkward, but you're not presenting actual points other than saying we're awkward and that that's scummy. Of course being awkward is scummy, you just haven't shown that I'm awkward.

Now, I think I'll end up on xay today, but first I'll reread the game.
Star, what's your opinion on xay?

[TierShift]

The whole reason I voted arnis in the first place was that he was super awkward. No way you can think his answers to me were more awkward than his 19 was in response to notmaf.
In fact, your whole case of asking useless questions and doing so to multiple players with aronis responding awkwardly can be made for notmaf with his 17 and aronis 19 in response; that's why your case sucks.

[TierShift]

In fact, your whole case of asking useless questions and doing so to multiple players with aronis responding awkwardly can be made for notmaf with his 17 and aronis 19 in response; that's why your case sucks.

So this scenario is "I'm scum but your case sucks and I don't like feeling like I'm caught for the wrong reasons," huh?

No, I actually want you to explain why I'm awkward. Discrediting every defence as scum caught for the wrong reasons is not valid.
There's two things wrong with your case:
1. It provides a statement (Tier is awkward) without arguments
2. The exact same case can be made for someone else; we obviously can't both be scum.
Back your story up or withdraw it.

[TierShift]

171: "sure awkward is scummy, but you need to prove I'm being awkward"
172: "I voted Aronis because he was being awkward"

Him telling me I need to prove he's awkward, which is an analysis of tone that you can't really provide evidence for though apparently he thought Aronis was awkward and probably knows asking for proof is bullshit, just sounds like him trying to pick at minor points in the case because I'm right about him being scum, instead of even at least once directly refuting the idea that he's scum, as town are much more likely to do.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Is it you taking issue with me asking you to explain why I'm awkward while I don't explain why aronis is awkward?
I can explan why aronis was awkward, but I wasn't asked to.

If that isn't what you were trying to say, please rephrase.

[TierShift]

Sounding butthurt about points of a case while minimally commenting on the "you're scum" accusation itself is one of them, and signals to me "caught for the wrong reasons" in scum's mind.

I'm refuting the case. I'm sorry that you don't see that and call it "being butthurt".

You say that I should respond to the "you're scum" part of the case. I cannot do that, other than saying "I'm town". I'm trying to evaluate the reasons why you think I'm scum and seeing where the problem lies. There's not much else I can do.

[TierShift]

That's what the lost and newbtowns do. I would do that about at the same frequency for both alignments. I can show you town me defending myself without saying 'I'm town' and probably can find scum me doing it.

Finding it would disprove your point. Do you want me to find it, or do you believe me?

[TierShift]

Look, you must surely believe in your own case. Why is it then so hard for you to elaborate on wy I'm awkward? You have shot down me asking for clarification with 'scum caught for the wrong reasons'. I don't agree with that, but even thinkng so does not prevent you from supplying the requested evidence. You believe your case, so you must have your reasons behind your case. If you don't have them, your case isn't worth jack. Please either supply the reasons/awkwardness, or admit that you cannot.

[TierShift]

VOTE: xay

ONLY 1 MORE MISLYNCH LEGGO

[TierShift]

It's sad I don't get to argue with starbucks anymore

[TierShift]

Hmm, this doesn't read like scum trolling...and I was so sure.

W/e, lynch zzzx tomorrow. If NM dies, please don't open the day with a vote on me starbucks, thanks.

[TierShift]

nah I don't roll that way

let's hope for trolling because I'm obviously getting lynched otherwise!

[TierShift]

I'm sure NM is town
Star looks like she's coming from a town mindset

Would reread like 5 times before finding out who it is, yell for 4 days and then get lynched!

[TierShift]

But eh we won this one

[TierShift]

You would be the worst kill to make for anyone but NM.

[TierShift]

Scratch that, I'm the worst kill, for everyone.

[TierShift]

Thanks for modding and analysis, f16. Love when mods give analysis!

On the setup. Town EV lies around 40%, which pretty good for a setup. What makes this setup so hard on scum, is that there is no way they both survive to endgame; distancing is everything. By interactions, two players probably get eliminated from being partners with scum dolphin (which pretty much happened here with me and NM), of which only one can be NK'd. I'd say that for level-headed players, this setup is almost always ending in a town win. But, well, we got pretty lucky with the playerlist and the day 1 lynch. Had we lynched town dolphin first and xay/me/sbl lylo, we'd have been fucked.

I think your proposed solution is good. That would actually drive the game into a 1v1, instead of a lynch one first them the other if we're wrong kinda situation. It's a whole different setup, though, and one that needs the whole town coordinated in a 5p lylo day 2. Not saying it's impossible to win for town, but damned hard.

Starbucks, if you'd like some advice, you can pm me. I think your gambit was pretty townish, but I can explain you a few things about your day 2 play.

Great fucking job town.

[TierShift]

You must've gone wrong somewhere; no way that EV is higher than in the originals setup.

[TierShift]

11% Goon lynched - Town wins
11% Mafia Dolphin Lynched
11% Town Dolphin Lynched
66% VT Lynch

This should read
1/7 goon
1/7 mafdol
1/7 towndol
4/7 vt

That is not corresponding to those percentages.

[TierShift]

Lemme have a go
1/7 townwin day 1 by lynching goon
1/7 4-1 by lynching mafdolph*0.467
1/7 2-1 by lynching towndolph*0.333
4/7*1/2 chance of 2-1 by lynching VT then mafdolph*0.333

Gives EV of 0.352
Seems good.

P-edit: ah, sorry, can't read.

Personally, I think the 7P version is better, because it already was pretty easy with the 40% EV. What do you think?