UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[Fenchurch]

No more than anyone else's lack of activity has.

You'd say it's no different? I might not have been amazingly active, but I have definitely read every part of the game as it's happened, and commented on it.

How confident would you say you are in your Nexus-read? Like, how accurate do you think it is, how surprised would you be to be wrong, how likely would you be to put money on it if that were an option. (Note: not asking you to actually put any money on it, no rule-breaking, but this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch.)

Feel free to provide this information in comparison to your other reads, too.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch

* on a read, not just a lynch

[Fenchurch]

The 3 most important quotes about my top suspects, from Day 1:

On Poro

:

Me too, this russian roulette style of game is not helping matters either, though AV isn't a horrible vote and looking through his iso's it's not just the me vote, it's the cdb vote as well. I'm not ready to lynch yet though, especially since I'd be surprised if anyone has a complete view of the game thus far, with a number of posters having barely posted.

unvote

Apologies, I was away and forgot to post in this game saying so.

vote AV

These are consecutive posts from Poro. That's a pretty unnatural progression. For someone who literally ten posts ago figured that no one has a complete view of the gamestate, you sure seem confident that the status quo is landing correctly.

Poro never actually gives a reason why he came around to voting AV (the closest he comes is 191. To me, not giving any explanation for why he placed that vote is incredibly scummy. It implies that he recognised he had to do something in relation to the wagon (especially given that he was the competing lynch), but couldn't come up with a satisfactory reason, so just refrains from giving one at all.

---

On Shanba

:

Not hammering AV. <snip> Still think prozac's a better lynch. <snip>

I'm getting some intense bad vibes off of this post. Not even a token effort to get us actually ON prozac. In fact his last like five mentions of prozac are saying "I still prefer prozac" but about the only mention of WHY he prefers prozac is something way back when that he admits was vibes.

Like reading this post, it seems pretty dang clear that Shanba knows AV is the lynch and isn't taking any real measure to deal with it, even though Zac is L-2 and convincing me to vote him would pretty much lock up the lynch. For all Shanba is saying he wants prozac lynched over AV, he doesn't seem to have any skin in that game (and in fact spends more time raising eyebrows as AV).

I don't know though, this gives me the worry that Shanba is scum and AV is a mislynch, but I don't think enough to turn me aside.

Shanba has given some explanation for this, basically that he wasn't super sure on Prozac either, enough to push the lynch. But the point still stands; Shanba hasn't given much by way of case for why Poro is scum. This is actually part of what makes me think it is plausible that they are scum together.

---

On Primate

:

(I probably won't have a chance to post after this today btw.)

But you didn't hammer me?

This also seems like a scummy way to react around a lynch. This isn't quite as strong because I do find it believable that Primate just wasn't invested in the game (he'd already said he regretted signing up), and/or he trusted hito to hammer. But still. And although Tammy's entrance did strike me as town, I don't think she's been overwhelmingly so, although I've yet to re-read it yet.

More comments forthcoming if I get further. I wish I had started re-reading sooner. If claims weren't an issue, I'd probably be voting Porochaz right now. But taking that into account, and given that I still think Shanba has a reasonable chance of being scum, this seems like the right lynch.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

They're really hammering CDB for his townread on me, and it's really pinging me.

Also Nexus, you said yourself that CDB hard-town-reading you made you somewhat suspicious of him. Why do you not think that others of us would want to find out whether his read on you was genuine or invented?

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

I'm always uncomfortable when CDB says he town reads me as heavily as he has today. Like I said yesterday, I need to re-read properly - my head isn't really in a good place at the minute so the re-read keeps falling further and further down my list of priorities.

Nexus - at this point in the game you mentioned some suspicion of CDB for heavily townreading you. Yet when I questioned CDB more about his townread of you (trying to discern both his and your own alignment), you thought I was scummy for it.

And, at the end of the day you were quite willing to vote CDB's proposed lynch choice of Tammy, despite previously saying that lynching the claimed VT (Shanba) seemed the best choice, and when I asked you about your read on Shanba, you said you hadn't looked into him/didn't really have an opinion.

So… what is your current read on CDB, and what has been your progression on CDB throughout the game.

Also I'd still quite like for you to explain this statement:

I still can't shake the fact that I consider the AV wagon a bit of a counter-wagon to Poro - he's been run up AGAIN today and ARGH

I'm confused by this, why does it make you bothered about Poro being run up? Surely the counter-wagon to a lynched townie stands a reasonable chance of being scum, or at least, the fact that he was a counterwagon doesn't make him more likely to be town.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

For info, my reads list right now:

most scummy

CDB = Elmo = Nexus = Tammy

most town

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

Oh Bookitty. I haven't played with you before, and CES says he has only once, a year ago, and you were scum. So I don't know why, but I just assumed that you would easily see us as being very readable and obviously town. Maybe because I generally do get town-read when I'm town, even from unfamiliar players, or at the least I rarely get called 'the scummiest'.

Ampersand - Easily the scummiest, imo. A lot of things feel faked or forced. I do not like at all.

So then. This isn't something I'm sure I'll be able to answer to, because if you think I sound 'fake' when I'm just playing natural and honest and open, then I'm not sure what else I can do, but I'll try. Can you give some examples, please?

Overall, your reads list is that you lean town on Nexus and CDB, you find us scummy, and you think Tammy is scum too because of 'connections'. Can you explain that last part a bit more? What are these 'connections' that you have made?

CES would also like you to answer to his argument about the balance of the game and the lack of town power.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

This is one of my town!ping posts from CDB.

Nexus - this is the same post of CDB's that I found most townie, and for a significant portion of the game, my townread on him was riding largely on that post. But someone here is scum, and comparatively, I don't think it's a post he'd find too hard to fake. There are plenty of F2F games where he's been run up at the start and diffused the wagon in a similar way, I'm pretty sure as both scum and town, and most of his defence (feeling awkward, not having much else to comment on so early in the game) are true regardless of his alignment.

Does Tammy usually post lots of random stuff that kind of shows activity but doesn't say much?

If this is directed at me, I don't know. My experience with her is seriously limited, sorry.

I'd assume it's a question for anyone.

I don't have much experience playing with Tammy either, but I was following Team Mafia: White Flag at the point when she swapped in, and I found her fairly readable as town there. I would say she contributed more in the way of reads and discussion than she has here. That's part of my reason for having Tammy/Primate as the second mafia now.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

There are times when I am glad to be in a hydra with CES, and that is one. I spent my lunch break trying (and failing) to articulate my thoughts to Tammy's post, and then I came home and they were already written, better than I could have done.

In case you're wondering, you can ignore the trailing 'Do you' at the end; it was the start of an unnecessary sentence which just reiterated the previous one.

CDB needs to check in, he's been absent for over 2 days. I'd like to hear more from Bookitty too.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

I'm a fucking idiot.

I just remembered this contradiction and was about to point it out but I see you got there first.

So I started answering you quote by quote, but mainly Nexus, I feel your scumread on us is based on my finding this game quite difficult, and having scumreads that have fluctuated quite a lot. And I think that is ironic, because I think you've expressed similar feelings and thoughts, and that your scumreads have moved back and forth a lot too.

To answer some of your questions:

No, we don't normally crumb.

Post 382 where I was aghast at Poro's scumread on us is, in my opinion, almost exactly how I react to being falsely accused in F2F game. It's possible that I sometimes react in a similar way as scum, but as town I certainly back up that shock and horror with defence of my actions and thoughts, which I did in 339 342 349 366 393 & 405, and which I would happily have done more of if I had had the time and hadn't also been dealing with simultaneously trying to make sense of the game in the run-up to deadline. I remember thinking at that time that I wished it WAS a face to face game so I could just talk the words out rather than having to write them all up.

To be honest I wish I'd never signed up to play. It's just made me realise just how shit I am at mafia and how much I hate playing it. I feel like I'm going to be responsible for a town!loss if we lose, and I am completely tied up in knots.

a) you're not responsible for a loss if you get it wrong here
b) we all let the game get to 5-player lylo
c) mafia is hard.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

I'm a fucking idiot.

I just remembered this contradiction and was about to point it out but I see you got there first.

So I started answering you quote by quote, but mainly Nexus, I feel your scumread on us is based on my finding this game quite difficult, and having scumreads that have fluctuated quite a lot. And I think that is ironic, because I think you've expressed similar feelings and thoughts, and that your scumreads have moved back and forth a lot too.

To answer some of your questions:

No, we don't normally crumb.

Post 382 where I was aghast at Poro's scumread on us is, in my opinion, almost exactly how I react to being falsely accused in F2F game. It's possible that I sometimes react in a similar way as scum, but as town I certainly back up that shock and horror with defence of my actions and thoughts, which I did in 339 342 349 366 393 & 405, and which I would happily have done more of if I had had the time and hadn't also been dealing with simultaneously trying to make sense of the game in the run-up to deadline. I remember thinking at that time that I wished it WAS a face to face game so I could just talk the words out rather than having to write them all up.

To be honest I wish I'd never signed up to play. It's just made me realise just how shit I am at mafia and how much I hate playing it. I feel like I'm going to be responsible for a town!loss if we lose, and I am completely tied up in knots.

a) you're not responsible for a loss if you get it wrong here
b) we all let the game get to 5-player lylo
c) mafia is hard.

- Fenchurch

[Fenchurch]

As an aside, I also really don't like the "I want to hear Nexus' thoughts but I'm still going to leave Tammy at L-1" attitude.

I never said 'I want to hear Nexus' thoughts'.

I said 'I want to hear more of what Bookitty says', because I'm still trying to figure out her alignment.

For you it was more that I wanted to give you time to figure the game out and choose correctly, because I'm hoping that you will.

- Fenchurch