Micro 575: Twin Peak Neighborhoods Game Over

lewarcher82 · Post Post #86 (isolation #0) » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:56 am

Sorry!!! I \confIrm and I will now start reading!

lewarcher82 · Post Post #101 (isolation #1) » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:32 pm

Math. It's a bit more complicated than just maximizing odds of hitting scum vs maximizing payoff by aiming at largest pool. I simulated a graph of game states in case we always lynch from the larger pool: Π(_p1^pn) for each branch of the graph, and then summed endgames. Basing on these hypotheses: 1) random lynch, 2) always hit the larger pool, 3) in this setup scum would not nk on mylo; it turned out that the townwin outcomes would make up for 0.37, vs a 0.63 of scumwin scenarios...

Then I wondered if I should make the same graph for smaller poll, and for some mixed projections, and I decided that no, not worth it. All in all, I prefer lynching in the smaller poll and maximize the odds of hitting scum on D1 (which is what would make life easier in most scenarios). And regarding my reads so far, I think that both of the most active players - who engaged in discussing math and strategy - exposed themselves way too much for being scum, so at the moment I have townreads of All In and Radiant. I therefore put a vote on someone from the big poll who voted for one of my current townreads.

Vote: Frozen Jeanne

lewarcher82 · Post Post #102 (isolation #2) » Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:41 pm

Oh, typo. In last post, I meant "on someone from the SMALL pool", obviously.

lewarcher82 · Post Post #124 (isolation #3) » Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:23 am

In post 104, Kahlan wrote:I honestly think it doesn't matter which side we vote from. scum is scum and town is town right? so lets just find scum and skip all this math hoo-ha. I feel Radiant is acting pretty scummy...

Radiant doesn't really answer questions when asked or he gives lame answers and doesn't really explain himself. For example:

In post 40, RadiantCowbells wrote:because I am RC.

After he said that he didn't explain why. Even when asked multiple times by a few people. However after I asked he did give a response which was not a real answer.

In post 59, RadiantCowbells wrote:I wish I knew man.

He would have known a reason for what he said since he said the statement in the first place right? I dont know something just seems little amiss. Then he votes for prohawk for reasons I'm not really sure of yet (I'm still on the fence if prohawk is scum or not) because radiant is the one that wouldn't even answer prohawks questions. Which brings me to another reason. Radiant asks for content from Prohawk yet doesnt really supply his own content for why he voting for prohawk or any other content for that matter.

AllIn is acting scummy as well. He just want to have a lynching it seems like. @AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Then there is SomeRandomMafia He votes for radiant and hasnt really been post anything? lurking much?

Well my reads are basically the opposite of yours (except for SRM, on whom I don't have a read, yet). Let me ask you: according to what you wrote, would you consider it likely that SomeRandomMafia and AllIn could be both scum? If so, why? If not, why?

lewarcher82 · Post Post #140 (isolation #4) » Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:24 am

In post 138, RedCoyote wrote:lewarcher, you said you preferred lynching in the smaller pool. How strongly are you willing to fight for that?

It is a consequence of my disbelief in the possibility of relying too much on math. In case I get scumreads on someone from the bigger pool, I will give it more weight and switch.

@kablan I disbelieve your theory I do not think that the two players who esposed themselves most on day 1 are scumteam.

Here math does help: as scum, loosing your partner d1 in this setup would lead to a 50% odds of loosing even if town rls Every night.

So, no. You are very likely wrong.