Micro 575: Twin Peak Neighborhoods Game Over

[All In]

No, We're lynching East Side today.

A possibility of confirming 4 people as town against confirming 3 people.
This is a no brainer, really.

[All In]

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

no need to apologize. You can go first.

[All In]

loving it.

[All In]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

[All In]

Seriously guys?

Lynch is small pool:
5-3 lynch
5-2 kill
Regardless of hitting scum on day 2, you will have 0 conftown left.

There are only benefits if you lynch scum in the big pool.
Yes you only have 1/5 chance instead of 1/4, but the reward for hitting scum is sooooooooo much higher.

Hitting scum in the big pool on day 1 will require the scumteam to keep killing from that pool until Lylo and we get to decide who makes it to lylo.
How are you guys not seeing this?

[All In]

To everyone voting me: explain why lynching in the small pool is helpful or vote someone else.
Thanks.

[All In]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

@allIn I dont think it matters in the end the ratios are the same. Say you lynch someone from the east side creating a 4:4 then scum kills making it 4:3 or 3:4. well in a good scum hunt you are trying to find the actual scum not keep eliminating players in order to find scum based on no reason. so that could make the ratio 4:2 or 2:4 that is if we as town are properly trying to find scum. Now if its 4:2 after the lynch then more than likely scum will kill someone from the east side making 3:2. Now I feel that it's better to vote from the smaller pool because there are less people and in my mind you are more likely to find the scum of the west side easier than the east side. Which would make it 5:3 now if we find scum we have 3 confirm town and of course scum will kill which will make the ratio yet again at 4:3 or at 5:2- that is if we find scum from the westside because eastside scum can kill a westside town which will probably help hide him. we could either have a 5 town (4:3) or 6 town(5:2) having 6 town would be good and will be helpful in order to find the last scum player. so trying to find scum in the smaller pool seems to be a good choice too. Even if we don't find scum on the first turn we have a higher chance of finding scum when it becomes 1 in 3 vs 1 in 4. In the end I honestly dont think it matters which side we lynch from as long as we find scum. I choose to try and find scum on the west side first because its a little more of a higher chance. If this game is all about math then I'm betting on the extra 5% chance I get in a 1 in 4 vs 1 in 5.

The point is that lynching scum on day 1 basically wins us the game.

[All In]

Here's how this works: it's 5-4
We lynch the bigger group to make it 4-4
Scum kills to make it 4-3
Lynch to 3-3
Kill to 3-2
Worst case scenario at this point is a 50% chance to hit Scum and a 2-1 lylo situation

The soon er we hit Scum, the more conftown we have.
If we hit Scum on Day 1, we have 4 conftown and will have 3 conftown on Day 2 VS 4 non-conftown

This game is all about math.

Lynching in the smaller pool will always give us less conftown. How is this not obvious?

^

[All In]

it comes down to this:

lynching in the small pool keeps the big pool at its maximum size and it will stay difficult to lynch out of that pool.

Lynching in the big pool now, gives us a bigger chance to hit scum on day 2(if we fail at hitting scum).

Scum wants to keep the pools as big as possible, to make choices harder.

I really can't explain it any better than this, but seriously, I should be getting support for this...

[All In]

I give up. Let's just play this game.

[All In]

The most likely scenario is that we hit town regardless of which neighborhood we pick. So it will either be 4v4 or 5v3. If it's 4v4, we learn a lot from which neighborhood the scum decide to kill in. If it's 5v3, the scum kind of have to kill in the 5v3 neighborhood. This is guiding my decision most, All In.

Can you explain this to me?

[All In]

As much as I really don't want to die N1, I think All In is actually correct.

Thank you.

VOTE: ProHawk

[All In]

As much as I really don't want to die N1, I think All In is actually correct.

Thank you.

VOTE: ProHawk

Naked votes do nothing except help scum, especially when its on town. I don't really think you're scum, but it IS early on. We also have plenty to go on, so a random vote doesn't really cut it either.

Explain.

Your content has been next to 0. Additionally, you have a votepool of 3 people and you have not given a reason for any of them.
Kinda funny you're questioning my lack of reasoning.

[All In]

You didn't seem to care to ask and just because I don't delineate my scum read to you I am scum? Last I checked your vote pool was 5...

I don't really see why you're getting so defensive over a couple of votes.

@AllIn do you have any other reason beside prohawk being east town that you are voting for him? If he is town I dont think he really is scum hunting very well.

Did you even read what I posted?

I strongly suspect that the wagon on me is being jumped on by scum.
Hence, my Prohawk vote. Hence, my FoS on Kahlan.
I think Kahlan's reasoning (which she actually gave unlike prohawk) is extremely weak and scummy.
Get more people posting more and you'll get more from me.

I think this may be the first time ever, but I agree with RC.

[All In]

Prod received. Will post later today, or possibly tomorrow.

[All In]

I still think we should lynch ProHawk.

FA is town
RC is town

Kahlan I'm not too sure about, but reads as town being wrong.

East Side scum pool: Prohawk, Random
West Side scum pool: Kaboose, lewarcher

Still going to keep voting east side.

[All In]

Coyote, who's east side scum?

[All In]

VOTE: RedCoyote.
This vote won't be moving.
The exact order of my reads might fluctuate a little bit, but he's

firmly

at the bottom.

Seriously dude, you can't post like this and not give a reason for it.
It's also very weird you posted a reads list after only reading page 1, and still having the same big scumread at the end of the game.

Your reads list looks very fabricated and random.

[All In]

EE, let's vote Prohawk.

[All In]

Ranger, can you give me a reason for your town read on Prohawk?

[All In]

I should probably townread RC for not agreeing with his preferred lynches.
RC, tell me how Ranger is town.

[All In]

VOTE: EE

I have a sudden urge to sort my own neighborhood and I'm feeling pretty good about Ranger and FA.

[All In]

Seriously, EE needs to die.

[All In]

Seriously, EE needs to die.

I'd rather he not--I'm not at 100% right now, so I'm not sure how well I can explain, but there's something about how EE is going about the game which makes me

strongly

think he is town. It's not absolute, but it's enough that if we want to go the "lynch small neighborhood" route, you'd be my choice.

What about FA? what's your read on her?

[All In]

VOTE: FA


Baa.

[All In]

I'm sheeping RC to victory.

[All In]

totally.

[All In]

RC, how do you feel about FA's ATE?

[All In]

RC, how do you feel about FA's ATE?

All In how do you feel about RC ?

Town.

I wouldn't sheep a scumread, obviously.

RC is either spot-on or completely wrong. This time, I have a good feeling he is spot on.

[All In]

I'm fascinated that no one responded to my 506. That really speaks to me. It seems to me the only possible angle All In has is Radiant's suspicions of Frozen. I think All In is well aware that Radiant is his only lifeline and is desperately clinging to him, but then Kahlan is currently voting All In.

Let's see if she continues to.

VOTE: All In (L-1)

The fact that you first had to test the waters if there was any resistance to my wagon is a really scummy move.
You should have voted in 506 if you were planning this.

[All In]

*joins in*

[All In]

Coyote-FA

[All In]

Votecount 1.17
RedCoyote - Ranger (L-4)
Frozen Angel -
All In -
Extrapolated Eagle - All In, ProHawk (L-3)
Ranger -
Some Random Mafia Player -

RedCoyote, Frozen Angel,

Extrapolated Eagle, RadiantCowbells, Kahlan (Lynched)
RadiantCowbells -
ProHawk -
Kahlan -

At least one of them is scum.

[All In]

as much as I'd like to lynch Coyote, we really need to lynch in the other pool today.

[All In]

SRMP was a really lazy lynch and should not have happened. So scum was definitely pushing that wagon over EE and Coyote.

[All In]

Both of the other people in my hood are voting him and one of them is scum and I don't feel like scum would bus.

oh know you think one of them is scum not me

how convincing

It's one of them + you, obviously.

[All In]

I do think he has a fair shot at scum and I do want to lynch from our neighborhood.

UNVOTE: Ranger; VOTE: Some Random Mafia Player

As much as I want to be stubborn, well, whatever.

I don't want to think about this game for a couple of days, honestly.

^scum

[All In]

nah NO. I think its Ranger ...

I think its you + Ranger

@All In just stop before I start insulting you. your noise is basically annoying.

you can insult me as much as you want. It still doesn't change that I'm town, and you're not.

[All In]

FA reads as frustrated scum.

[All In]

insulting me won't change my mind, unfortunately.

[All In]

FA, you don't strike me as a player who gives up so easily as town.

[All In]

FA, this is a game, if you can't handle some pressure, then you should consider walking away instead of trying to pull off stuff like this.

[All In]

Why are you so sure RC is scum? This looks like Town RC to me?

[All In]

yes

[All In]

he got me lynched, actually. So he knows I'm usually good lynchbait.

[All In]

At least you're talking to me now.

Because he realizes I'm town. Both other players in his pool want me dead, so his logic that scum is pushing my lynch makes total sense.

[All In]

thats why your still alive dah

Have you ever found scum Rc? do you know what should you read?

I played as scum partner with him. we hydra as town. I found him as a cult leader in the cult game. I know how he manipulates. how he acts how he push as scum and this is his scum way of doing things.

Go do some meta research

*still rereading All In ISO*

I know how he pushed my lynch for bad reasons.
I haven't seen that here.

[All In]

What should I look for in scum RC then?

I don't do meta research. I can't read a game unbiased.

[All In]

FA, if you're scum, I'm going to yell at you post-game.

UNVOTE:

[All In]

Also, there was no need to insult me. I know how frustrating it can be to not be heard, but it's up to you to make me hear it.

[All In]

It's okay. I just wanted to point it out before it gets worse.

When you come back, tell me what you think about EE/Ranger.

We really need to lynch in our pool today, we can sort RC later.

[All In]

Don't be so quick to townread her.

I'm not in any rush to lynch her but she's still my main scumread in your pool.

if FA is town, who is scum in our pool?

[All In]

Maybe you're right.

If we mislynch in the small pool, scum will be obligated to kill in the big pool, or one of their members will be outed.

[All In]

Wow looks like I have some reading to do. Let me start writing my post. For now I'm going to UNVOTE: AllIn I don't want him getting lynched as I try to write out my post.

Okay, I think I have an idea what the scum team is now.

I wanted to see what Kahlan would do after voting All In. I'm now in a happy place. What was sticking out in my mind was that I wasn't convinced there was scum between Frozen/Radiant. Honestly, I have gotten town reads off of both of them from early on in the game (well, I needed Jeanne to replace out to see Frozen as town). As Radiant said, the ProHawk kill doesn't really do anything for him. The ProHawk kill helps Frozen somewhat, but I find her naked emotion today to be very difficult to fake. I think Radiant sees this, too, which is why he's been reluctant to vote her.

Had Kahlan not unvoted or given me some other indication that she continued to see All In as scum, I'd probably have looked toward Eagle or Ranger. Instead, I think Kahlan got nervous and backed away. What confirms this for me even more was that she didn't even have a "backup" vote, so to speak. Either she wasn't too keen on voting All In when she did vote him, or she has an interest in keeping pressure off of him. I'm not happy with either of those answers. In other words, she took her vote off of All In not because there was something more pressing that convinced her she found scum elsewhere, but only because of my additional vote. This may have been why she was quick to add how she was distrustful of Frozen in the same post she voted All In.

Frozen/Eagle, I do not think Radiant is the scum in our neighborhood, nor do I think we should be voting on the east side today.

Radiant, I think your intuition is right that Frozen is town. With that in mind, there is scum in the west.

I'm not usually online very late (which is seemingly when all the discussion takes place), so I have to make my posts count. All In fits as scum. No one is willing to go to bat for him. The scumteam killed out of the west side neighborhood last night as opposed to the east side. Ergo, they're more confident the scum on the west side is safer than the scum on the east side. He has completely proxied his vote to Radiant because he is unable to earn any townreads on his own accord. His play has changed day-over-day (see: 34/37 vs 492/498). He was completely unconcerned about Kahlan's vote and only seemed to care about my vote despite the fact that both Kahlan and myself are in the same neighborhood (see: 568, 580, 585). As a matter of fact, All In hasn't even mentioned Kahlan once today. Let's check out the last time All In mentioned Kahlan:

I still think we should lynch ProHawk.

FA is town
RC is town

Kahlan I'm not too sure about, but reads as town being wrong.

East Side scum pool: Prohawk, Random
West Side scum pool: Kaboose, lewarcher

Still going to keep voting east side.

This was toward the end of D1. Notice his wishy-washy stance on Kahlan. How he arrived at this conclusion is anyone's guess, but it keeps him from having to comment more in depth. This post has all kinds of bad things going on with it, frankly.

I don't even want to address this. There is no way we are lynching Kahlan.

[All In]

All in whats your read on EE and why?

EE seems to have dropped off the face of the earth since being pressured on day 1. Not looking very good to me. ProHawk's death also fits if he's scum, but that's all WIFOM.
I think he is more likely to be scum than Ranger though.

[All In]

VOTE: Coyote

let's sort this out.

[All In]

There is no way we are lynching Kahlan.

why you think that way?

Scum is Coyote or possibly RC. Not Kahlan.

[All In]

There is no way we are lynching Kahlan.

Lol. Yeah, good thinking there, bud.

I like how you equated my point that you haven't mention Kahlan at all today with the idea that we should lynch her. Because those two things are exactly the same, right?

From what I got from your post, you seemed to be getting ready to vote Kahlan.

[All In]

RC, vote Coyote with me.

[All In]

Coyote, both RC and Kahlan are voting Eagle. How does that affect your read on him?

[All In]

it looks like we're at an impasse.

[All In]

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

Flipflopping on every single read. Let's do it.

[All In]

Like why am I even a lynch candidate though? Eh whatever. As long as you lynch all in tomorrow. I'm not getting aphixiated again. :/

no.

[All In]

Sorry, I'm here.

All In's vote switch caught me off guard a bit.

The three candidates that I think could conceivably reach a lynch at the moment are All In, Eagle and Radiant.

We all need to weigh those candidates in our minds and the positive and negative outcomes each lynch provides.

If we lynch Radiant and he flips town, scum are forced to shoot west. Then the town has to decide between myself and Kahlan. I think I've done enough to prove that I'm the town in this neighborhood. Then it would be me, west-scum and west-town.

Like, if we lynch Radiant and he's town, you're effectively voting to put me in the LYLO position. I don't have a great track record with LYLO, I don't think. I'd have to run through my history to check. I can't remember the last time I was in LYLO. The last LYLO I remember was with me as a confirmed vig. We had an RB, an ascetic and a VT. I told the RB to block the VT, I shot the RB and the ascetic ended up being the final scum, lol. Anyway, I know y'all don't want to hear some old war story.

If we lynch All In/Eagle and they flip town, then the scum team has to choose which neighborhood they kill in, which (and I've said this multiple times now, but I'll keep saying it until it sticks) I think is a very helpful thing for us. It tells us immediately which neighborhood the scum think they are "stronger" in by making that neighborhood a 50/50 versus a 33/33/33. In other words, whichever neighborhood the scum shoot in means that they're wanting us to do a 50/50 lynch from that neighborhood.

Any comments on that?

You say you suck at LYLO, yet you say scum has to choose which neighborhood to kill in. Seems like a no brainer to me.

If nobody is townreading me, I really don't understand why I haven't been hammered yet. I think scum is off the wagon not wanting to look bad.

[All In]

VOTE: Eagle

FA can hammer either me or Eagle, for all I care. Let's get this game moving.

[All In]

UNVOTE:

I want to reread Ranger first

[All In]

I also think if Eagle flips town, I will be an easy mislynch at Lylo.
Maybe it's better if I die today

[All In]

VOTE: RC

I think I'd rather go for this. RC should be tunneling a lot more.

[All In]

Radiant, who is your scumteam? Myself and Eagle or Kahlan and Eagle? Or other?

Ranger, I'm curious as to why you're not invested in trying to convince others to join the All In wagon? Yeah, you just made a token 762, but I haven't really heard a lot prior to that.

I feel like not enough people are being straightforward in this game. Radiant has just gotten so tightlipped. Kahlan flips her vote to... Ranger. Ranger has, "nothing else to say". All In is scrambling, but I honestly can't blame him for that (though I hated 742 with a passion). Eagle seems content to say nothing else. I'm getting this impression that they (Radiant, Eagle, Kahlan and Ranger) don't really care whether Eagle or All In gets lynched, which is kind of worrying to me.

this is probably the towniest post you've made so far.

[All In]

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

Very unlike RC to stall a game like this

[All In]

I would be very surprised if RC flips town here.

[All In]

UNVOTE:

I don't like Coyote being on RC's wagon.

[All In]

Ugh this game.

Feel free to hammer me Kahlan.

[All In]

Sorry, I'm here.

All In's vote switch caught me off guard a bit.

The three candidates that I think could conceivably reach a lynch at the moment are All In, Eagle and Radiant.

We all need to weigh those candidates in our minds and the positive and negative outcomes each lynch provides.

If we lynch Radiant and he flips town, scum are forced to shoot west. Then the town has to decide between myself and Kahlan. I think I've done enough to prove that I'm the town in this neighborhood. Then it would be me, west-scum and west-town.

Like, if we lynch Radiant and he's town, you're effectively voting to put me in the LYLO position. I don't have a great track record with LYLO, I don't think. I'd have to run through my history to check. I can't remember the last time I was in LYLO. The last LYLO I remember was with me as a confirmed vig. We had an RB, an ascetic and a VT. I told the RB to block the VT, I shot the RB and the ascetic ended up being the final scum, lol. Anyway, I know y'all don't want to hear some old war story.

If we lynch All In/Eagle and they flip town, then the scum team has to choose which neighborhood they kill in, which (and I've said this multiple times now, but I'll keep saying it until it sticks) I think is a very helpful thing for us. It tells us immediately which neighborhood the scum think they are "stronger" in by making that neighborhood a 50/50 versus a 33/33/33. In other words, whichever neighborhood the scum shoot in means that they're wanting us to do a 50/50 lynch from that neighborhood.

Any comments on that?

Especially after this

[All In]

We're not no lynching. you know this.

[All In]

Can we do the thing where everybody sheeps me and I get my one brilliant chance in the limelight and then everybody goes "wow eagle you're amazing at finding scum! I wish I'd paid attention to your reads more often" and then everybody will love me and this game will be over with and we'll all meet up for tea and crumpets and go on cruises and talk about the good old days before we lynched all in and we still wondered who scum was.

I don't feel like scum would post this.

[All In]

I'm pretty confident scum was trying to get me lynched... question is whether it was lazy scum, eccentric scum, or opportunistic scum...

With nine alive it takes five to lynch!

Votecount 1.11

RedCoyote - RadiantCowbells, Ranger (L-3)
Frozen Angel - Kahlan, ProHawk (L-3)
All In -
Extrapolated Eagle -
Ranger -
Some Random Mafia Player - RedCoyote (L-4)
RadiantCowbells -

ProHawk - All In, Frozen Angel, Extrapolated Eagle (L-2)

Kahlan -

Not Voting - Some Random Mafia Player

Day One Deadline

(expired on 2016-02-15 16:30:00)

I'm going to consider Ranger more town after seeing this.
It has to be EE or FA. Maybe I should reread FA

[All In]

why exactly All in derailed RC wagon?

see my post about Coyote being on it.

[All In]

Votecount

RedCoyote -
Frozen Angel -
All In - Extrapolated Eagle, RadiantCowbells (L-2)
Extrapolated Eagle -
Ranger - Kahlan(L-3)
RadiantCowbells - Frozen Angel, RedCoyote (L-2)
Kahlan -

Not Voting - All in, Ranger

[All In]

VOTE: Coyote

I'm going to vote here.

/out.