Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[Wingback]

Wingback replaces Iprobablysuck! Please welcome them.

Hi. Been keeping an eye on the thread on my phone. I'll have more time after the fourth of july weekend so I should be able to catch up by tomorrow.

[Wingback]

Caught up to page six. I'll catch up fully in the next hour or two but I want to make a checkpoint here as my reads are surprisingly well-developed for so early in the game.

Postie and Aristophanes are scumreads. Postie's townread on Elyse in Post 111 struck me as

exactly

the kind of read I would make as scum if a townie incorrectly townread me. I don't see how Postie could have genuinely formed that read given Elyse's content so far but I do see it making a lot of sense as scum not wanting to antagonize Elyse and shake that read.

Aristphanes's Post 32 doesn't make sense in context of Post 30 as TTH, Fire Assasin and Duppin have already pointed out. He also strikes me as under the radar and fluffy early on in the game although these are not conclusive so I'll see how I feel after catching up.

TellTaleHeart is a solid townread for either saying exactly what I was thinking (Postie) or being the first to make a valid point (Aristo), on both these major issues. Duppin's discussion with Fire Assasin and generally probing scumhunting has me leaning town on him as well. BNL's reads in general made sense given his posting so far and I also liked his saying what I was thinking on Duppin. Fire Assasin's case on Elyse was bad but I don't find it scummy. In fact, I found Fire's general activity and engagement to be town. Elyse's response to it looked town. I thought Fire made himself a rather easy target by pushing such a case but Elyse not jumping on him and pushing back when it would have been so easy to do makes me lean town.

GuiltyLion is a null read. If I'm wrong on one of Postie or Aristo, that's where I'd look. I did think the comment in Post 137 that everyone looks town enough looked like a townie thought process so I have a very slight townlean there. I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger.

Going to go through the next twelve pages now. Let me know if there's anything specific you need elaborated on or want me to look at.

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Making another checkpoint, this time from pages seven to twelve.

Don't like Postie's townread on TTH at all. The initial read in Post 116 right after TTH pushes her smells of appeasement. Later in Post 164, she gives herself a backdoor saying she's unqualified to read TTH which gives the impression that she wants an out in case the confrontation with TTH turns into a direct clash. In any case, if she thinks she's unqualified to make a read, why is she doing it with such confidence? I'd expect a bit more uncertainty there and

"oh good TTH is town."

doesn't sound like she's hesitant.

Townreading someone for a case but disagreeing with them is stupid and scummy. It's like you're trying to appease Fire without having to take the same stance as him.

First off, I can see town thinking that the way another player is pushing a case is townish, while also thinking that they are wrong. I don't understand why you think that's unlikely.

Secondly, Postie townread TTH right after TTH made a case on her (Post 115 and Post 116). I assume Postie disagrees with the case if she's town. Why isn't that scummy but BNL townreading someone for a case he disagrees with, scummy?

The overjustified, apologetic unvote of Bullet... ... I wouldn't be surprised with a Bullet/Aris scumteam.

Why would Aristo be apologetic to his scumbuddy in thread? It would make more sense if you argued that Aristo was backing off and apologizing to a town-BNL to make sure he doesn't antagonize him, but then you call the two of them a scumteam.

In other news, my scumread on Aristo weakened over these six pages. Don't like Postie's defense of him purely because "the wagon formed organically." It's possible to justify any wagon as a wagon on town. If someone's leading the wagon, they could be scum pursuing a mislynch, or they could be misguided town that scum are taking advantage of. If no one's pushing hard, then it's a town-driven wagon on town. If it formed quickly, scum are on the wagon. If it formed slowly, then scum are waiting to compromise at deadline or the wagon is saturated with scum and town aren't buying it, etc.

What tips the scales for me is the reasoning behind the wagon. I haven't made up my mind about Aristo and I need to re-read him. That's the end of page twelve. I'll finish reading up the remainder of the game before I put my vote down but it's probably going on Postie. Not sure who I think the partner is but I need to re-evaluate Elyse.

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I'll respond to individual posts as I catch up on the last third of the game.

I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger

This is referring to her vote on Fire Assassin, correct? Why do you call the FA vote an early counter wagon when Elyse was already an early counterwagon? Like I feel like you could make this point about Postie pushing any non-Aristophanes wagon, or any non-Postie player pushing a non-Aristophanes wagon, it doesn't actually link the two of them together (outside of hindsight if they are actually both scum).

idk I like most of the things that you've said but they feel a little

too

consistent with the current thread temperature. I'd rather flip within Postie/Aristo first though.

It doesn't link the two of them together. I was independently scumreading both of them. Aristophanes was the center of attention early in the game. Postie ignoring that and pushing elsewhere re-inforced my suspicions about both of them. If I didn't have other reasons to scumread them both, I wouldn't have found it notable.

Postie is universally scumread because she's obviously scum. I do find it pleasantly surprising that most people see what I see regarding Postie. I'm not as sure about Aristo but I'll follow up on it once caught up.

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I also like Wingback for town, for the following reasons:
1) Many of his thought processes match mine. These are my stance on GuiltyLion a while ago (though he's leaning scum now), and read on Duppin and Fire Assassin.
2) With the structure of the game so far, lurking is a towntell, or at least he isn't scum with Postie or Aristo. He has shown that he has been been online, just that he was not posting. If he was scum with either Postie or Aristo, I'd expect his buddy to say in the scum PT something like "Partner, I'm at L-1, DO SOMETHING", and he wouldn't be just stuck at page six.

1. Why are you are townreading me for matching your thoughts when you posted them in thread first? It would have been different if I said something you were thinking but not saying aloud in thread.

2. This is a really convoluted reason to townread me. Why do you think I as town haven't posted? I suppose you assumed I was too busy to post. If that were the case, wouldn't I also be too busy to post as scum?

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I just don't see a townie reading a case, disagreeing with it, and then townreading someone for it. Like if the case is good, why do you disagree with it? It makes more sense coming from an informed point of view.

BNL never said he thought the case was good. He just said he was townreading Fire for the case. That could mean any number of things most likely scenarios being that BNL thought Fire's thought process was town, or that he though Fire's aggression was town, or that he thought Fire sounded like he believed in his case even if he BNL saw it as misguided.

You're right. It makes more sense if BNL is town.

Why did you think they were scumbuddies at that point?

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Alright, caught up. Postie is so ridiculously scummy it's not even funny. Adding to the stuff I pointed out in my first two posts, I don't buy for a second that the reasons she's townreading Aristo for are genuine. The convoluted justification she gave for how the wagon makes him town is the biggest load of hogwash I've seen in a while. The only real question for me is whether she's doing the simplistic "white-knight a townie under pressure" dance or whether she's hoping that her defense of Aristo will clear him upon her flip because of the "hey, why would scum defend their partners so obviously" theory. Nothing about her readslist changed my mind, that's all stuff easily within the realm of what scum can fake, not to mention my three strongest townreads are the ones in her lynchpool which I found rather amusing. Didn't like her not addressing anything I said and reading me solely based on IPS, and the latest post smacks of trying to manipulate me into second-guessing my scumread.

VOTE: Postie

TTH, Duppin, and GuiltyLion are town, no question about it. Happy to elaborate on any of these if needed. I think there's a chance any of the other four could be a Postie partner: Elyse, Fire, BNL, and Aristo. I'm still leaning Aristo and have weaker townreads on the other three but I'll go over each of their ISO's over the next couple of days to make sure and lock it down.

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Assuming Postie is town (I don't see why scum would even post at all after being hammered), Aristo is almost certainly scum for that hammer. There was a votecount on the previous page showing three votes on Postie, then I voted a few posts after making it four. There is no way he missed it and there is no way he would just pop up randomly and vote without actually catching up. That hammer and feigning ignorance of it and the cobbled together reasoning he gave is a scumclaim. At least we got a definite scum out of the mislynch.

BNL's play around the Postie lynch is worthy of further investigation. Need to look at GL too. Saying I should be "considered" in the event that Postie flips town is an odd stance to take. If I were scum with Postie, I would be bussing the hell out of her so if he had suspicions of me, I don't see why it should be contingent on Postie flipping town. Same issues with BNL's logic in Post 493. BNL's is more scummy because he was townreading me (for a very convoluted reason) until I called him out, then suddenly jumped to "if Wingback is scum, Postie is town."

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GL did call out the hammer (Post 497). To recap my reads: TTH, Duppin, Fire are all town. I don't see any scum motive for Fire to switch from Postie to start a wagon on Aristo when he could have gotten a mislynch. Elyse is also leaning town for joining him on Aristo. That leaves just BNL and GL as Aristo's partners and I'll look over both of them tonight, possibly Elyse as well just to make sure.

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Lynch Aristo -> GL -> BNL. Town wins.

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To clarify, I was referring to Fire's Post 448 where he chooses to vote Aristophanes over Postie right after Postie does her big list of reads. His phrasing made me think he already had a vote on Postie but it seems that's not the case. My townread remains for similar reasons: he chose Aristo over Postie and at that point, there is no reason for him to bus. Similar reasoning for Elyse town but she actually switched over from Postie to Aristo. BNL never voted Aristo so I don't know where that's coming from. GL calling it a scumslip is terribad.

Aristo is 100% scum for that hammer. If you look at the context and see what his previous posts were, you'd notice he suddenly popped in two days later, gave no opinions on anything, did not catch up, just hammered and added a lame excuse that he thought it was L-1. Don't know if the partner is GL or BNL though.

[Wingback]

Explained in Post 508. Find your Post 499 to be scummy in hindsight now that we know Postie is very likely town.

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When I caught up, Postie was the leading wagon and I put her at L-1. If she were scum, it wouldn't have cleared me in any way and if I were scum with her, pushing elsewhere is an extremely risky maneuver.

That's completely different from Fire Assasin deciding that he doesn't want the guaranteed Postie mislynch and instead deciding the kickstart a wagon on his partner Aristo.

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But that doesn't answer the question as to why you think a Postie scumflip would clear me. Your suspicion of me was conditional of Postie flipping town. You wrote it out before Postie returned to the thread so you couldn't have known that she was town (and you were certainly very suspicious of her). It reeks of knowing that Postie was a mislynch.

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That's completely different from Fire Assasin deciding that he doesn't want the guaranteed Postie mislynch and instead deciding the kickstart a wagon on his partner Aristo.

But what if FA knows that Ari will almost certainly be lynched on D2 or D3, and therefore he has to have a plausible trail of scumread throughout the game? Much like you couldn't get away with not-bussing scum!Postie hypothetically, he can't exactly defend Ari and push elsewhere either, especially if he's already been projecting a Postie townread.

I can see us both being town here but I really want to dig at this because if scum!Ari and town!Wingback then I think FA is scum.

At the same time, Fire could have kept going at it with Elyse until much closer to deadline and either "compromise" at the last moment or let the Postie mislynch happen on its own. There was latent suspicion on Aristo but he wasn't getting lynched unless someone mobilized that suspicion and kickstarted the wagon which Fire did. I do see your point about Aristo being an eventually likely lynch later on in the game.

If you are town, I'd be much more inclined to look at BNL than Fire and I don't fully understand your townread there. It seems to come down to a variation of "too scummy to be scum." The way he played around Postie, hesitated, pointed out how easy it was all look like cautious scum that want the mislynch but don't want to stick their neck out. He also seems relatively inexperienced and those behaviors fall into the range I expect from people who haven't completely developed their scumgames.

[Wingback]

Here's the thing: the minute I saw Postie's flip, I expected a serial killer. Why would there be a role that exclusively protects town and not scum? I think having a town vig and a doc is plenty of town power. You don't need a mechanism to ensure that any vig shots on scum go through.

On the other hand, considering a serial killer plus two mafia in a Micro is a lot of potential kills to be flying around, it makes sense to have a doc that reduces the probability of town being night killed while not reducing the probability of cross-kills.

You claiming ascetic makes sense if you don't want potential investigatives on you. Why in the world would you as a vig claim ascetic? I suppose you may not have wanted to be roleblocked but that's something that applies to every PR in every game so it's nothing unusual. You had no reason to believe scum would roleblock you specifically.

The Aristo kill is null to me. If you wanted to claim vig, you had no choice. You were under heavy fire during twilight and I think you were banking on a pseudo-confirmation today to hopefully mislynch a town player and maybe get to three-way and win. None of your posts towards me in twilight suggest that you started to think I was townier than BNL. In fact, you explicitly said that if I was town, then Fire is scum. But when Fire flipped town, your suspicion should have been on me. Instead you go for BNL. You probably are completely convinced I'm the last scum and want to "mislynch" BNL which is hilarious because I'm town.

I'm going to re-read the game before putting down a vote but I'd like everyone to weigh in on GL's claim.

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Yeah, completely missed that part. Okay, so GL is confirmed. Off the top of my head, I think it's BNL but I need to re-read to be sure. That'll happen tonight or tomorrow once I'm caught up with my other games.

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VOTE: Wingback

Lol

Glad Fire was killed cause I thought he might be scum.

Wingback trying to push that bs on GL is laughable. Reads to me as scum planning on pushing GL and getting their plans foiled.

If it's not Wingback I'd guess duppin over BNL but I'd have to reread.

How is it BS? I missed the mod's mention in the OP that it is 7:2. Given the roles that flipped so far, I suspected an SK which was completely reasonable.

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why would you ask conftown that question?

I'm asking you because I believe the game is auto. If you think I'm likely scum, then you don't need to include me in the auto. I'm pretty sure Elyse and TTH aren't ever with Aristo.

Let's not do anything hasty like "auto-wins." This game is far from an auto-win. I'm actually pretty sure you are town but not so sure about Elyse and TTH. TTH posting in the endgame of another game right after this thread was locked made me do a double-take.

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I don't discount it. It makes sense for weak scum players to push partners early on because they're not sure if they can adequately push a town player and get away with it. Once everyone settles down and the game proceeds, you get a better idea of where you can push convincingly. This is especially true for weak scum players who expect to have decent reads as town, because they feel compelled to be right fearing that they would get bop'd if they're wrong too often. I don't find TTH's eventual vote on Postie very convincing - it was a response to Postie pushing her and looked like an excuse to get off of Aristo.

[Wingback]

I was. My reads yesterday were influenced by my scumread on Postie which I was pretty confident about. I re-assessed based on her flip. My first suspicion overnight was on whoever claimed vig. I thought we struck gold when GL claimed but I completely missed that important little tidbit the mod gave about it being 7:2.

I'm not saying I'm positive it's TTH. I don't like Elyse's push on me either because it's so easy. I spent my first post attacking someone we now know to be conf-town and GL and I did have a back-and-forth in twilight making it more likely he would suspect me. Of course, flailing scum is the easiest buzzword to throw at someone under pressure who is unsure of their reads. Of course, I'm considering all options. That's necessary to win the game.

I think BNL is a distinct possibility to be scum though. The only one I'm sure of is you.

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Whoa, stop with the complacency. I have no idea if the remaining scum is BNL and I'm actually very concerned about both Elyse and TTH. Lynch me if you really want but give me the fourteen days to deadline while I go through the game and compile my thoughts. I'll be doing this in bits and pieces over the next few days.

I'm fine getting lynched but I don't want us to lose the game because everyone's really confident its "one of Wingback or BNL, lynch through them and we win" and don't actually take time to thoroughly read every player. If Elyse or TTH are scum, they've been playing pretty well. If that's the case, even if you successfully kill BNL, assuming scum shoot you, we'll have a Duppin/Elyse/TTH lylo which would be a pretty tough one to figure out. If for whatever reason the kill fails, I assume BNL would be "auto-lynched." Great if he's scum, auto-loss if he's not.

So, let's try and slow down a bit here.

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This is going to be in bits and pieces, chronologically first, then summary of where I stand on everyone.

Aristo's reaction to Elyse in Post 32 is odd. He throws shade on my predecessor but when asked to vote him, he turns around and semi-accuses Elyse. The latter could be slight distancing.

Elyse's response in Post 33 also pings. She seemed more focused on IPS than Aristo. She doesn't question Aristo on why he was throwing shade without voting, rather just trying to convince him to vote.

TTH's Post 38 makes a lot of sense and doesn't look like something contrived to start bussing Aristo.

Duppin's early pressure on Aristo and Fire (posts 41, 43, 45, 47) flow smoothly and he's fairly consistent.

Don't like Elyse putting Aristo at L-1 with piss poor reasoning ("I agree with FA and Duppin") in Post 63. It smacks of the type of carelessness that mid-level scum show when pushing partners.

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Aristo was bussed. That much is obvious considering nearly everyone had suspicion of him. He was a weak scum player and a goon who also got early pressure so is a juicy bus target.

The most awkward push was Elyse's. What TTH pointed out, and what Fire and Duppin discussed and agreed with flowed organically and you can see how their thought processes developed as they started suspecting Aristo. Elyse was lagging in that regard. She didn't comment on Aristo's initial scummy posts at all. After reading Post 32, I find it very odd that Elyse's response to Aristo wasn't something along the lines of "

because you said in Post 30 that you find it "interesting" that IPS was worried, what did you mean by that and if you think it scummy, why not vote and why the reaction in Post 32?

" She completely glosses over that part.

Her eventual vote on Aristophanes in Post 63 is notable for a few reasons. First, it's a sheep vote. Second, it puts Aristo at L-1. There's a lack of caution and a bit of reckless abandon in the vote almost as if hurrying to be in on the wagon of a partner, like she doesn't want to miss out and let town lynch Aristo all on their own which would suck for her.

[Wingback]

So, Wingback is my #1 pick for scum now for his awful "push" on GL. Elyse is would be my second pick due to FA nightkill, though I admittedly did not have the time to reread (all weekdays more busy for me now), and I will probably do so tomorrow.

You are milking this push for a lot. Why don't you explain in your own words what's scummy about it?

IMO TTH is more likely to be scum than Elyse is

Why? The one issue I have with TTH is lack of engagement. She was online yesterday but didn't weigh in or analyze the game and I thought her one post was pretty weak but if she is scum, she's played very well early on in the game.

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Also, thoughts from everyone on what I've posted so far would be appreciated.

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Just to be clear - you get results as VT or not VT, correct?

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Leaning towards that claim being town. I can't see a scum-TTH wanting to confirm Elyse when Elyse would have to be her final mislynch. It would be a whole lot harder to get Duppin lynched. I'm still confused about how overpowered town seems to be. If we're right and the town is OP, then there's nothing to worry about. Checked the wiki whether neapolitan-specific godfathers and they are not normal so Elyse is confirmed.

I feel like I'm hitting a lot deadends here. Not my best game. I'm going to finish my re-read and double-check TTH and Duppin just to see if I haven't missed anything. If BNL is scum, he should surrender right now and save me the trouble.

But yeah, I'm really town here. Elyse and GL are confirmed. I can't see TTH's move as a scum tactic at all and her D1 push on Aristo made the most sense. It has to be Duppin or BNL and Dupping is clearly town.

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VOTE: BulletproofNLynchproof

I'd rather not get mislynched just for the heck of it. Vote him and it's a win. Vig me if he's somehow town (hint: he's not). Pretty sure about this.

Now that I think about it, his end of D1 pussyfooting around the Postie lynch was incredibly scummy. I forgot about that entirely getting distracted with GL first, then Elyse.

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Best explanation for Fire being nightkilled was he caught onto BNL in the neighborhood PT.

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Need to head off to bed but I'd really appreciate votes on BNL. If you need convincing, I'll elaborate on why in the morning. Short version is that I got really bad vibes from a) his townread of me, and b) the way he hedged on his read of me conditional to Postie flipping scum and said that if she were town, then I'm scum. BNL and GL both did this a little bit but BNL's logic was a lot scummier. I pointed out that if we lynch Aristo -> GL -> BNL, we win but then got distracted with double-checking Elyse's posting.

Vote BNL and if you need me to elaborate, I'll do it tomorrow.

[Wingback]

hah TTH I totally saw the result soft

Hence why I said you were more scum than Elyse

Town feels a little OP but yeah let's lynch Wingback and then I'll shoot BNL tonight if Wingback flips town. If somehow that doesn't end it then it'll be a LYLO decision between duppin/TTH, hopefully I would get killed so it would be Elyse that has to deal with it

Vote BNL. You can shoot me tonight if I'm wrong.

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If for whatever reason the game doesn't end with BNL and somehow Duppin is scum and the scum have a way to stop the kill, I don't want to risk losing so I'd rather just lynch the scum now and get it over with.

[Wingback]

Hmmm. Ok cool glad to be confirmed.

I refuse to lynch anyone other than Wingback. His posts on this page alone make him deserve the noose.

Actually, my posts on this page were probably the most transparent ones I've made.

You suspect me because I started the day saying that GL was likely the serial killer. For anyone who glossed over the OP or forgot that the mod had given us the number of scum, that's a perfectly reasonable place to push, doubly so because Postie's role makes it look like town is surrounded by multiple factions. Then, there was GL's claim to be ascetic. I've never seen an ascetic vig ever but it's perfectly reasonable for an SK to be ascetic to make them semi-immune from investigations sort of as a balance between not immune and totally immune.

After he was confirmed and I started re-reading the game in its entirety to see whether you or TTH could be scum over BNL, BNL did jack all and made the easiest push in the world - me.

Then when TTH claimed and I verified that it has to be a town role and concluded that BNL was scum, your response is that they were the "scummiest posts in the game." BNL's posts where he it seemed like he was trying to get GL to announce his target makes it seem like he has some sort of redirecting or bus driving ability. Those are not normal but neither are Postie's and GL's roles and I'm thinking there is some sort of variant to it.

In summary - I think there's a decent chance scum have something else up their sleeve and we should cover our bases. It's frustrating that I'm literally the only person still trying to figure this out, so it would be great if people can post more than one line of "let's lynch X" and try and solve what's going on.

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I agree that a lesser number of VTs balance the game better and I was actually thinking about it earlier. That's one reason I really wanted to go through the game and make sure Duppin isn't the remaining scum. If it comes down to Duppin/TTH, lynch Duppin.

In any case, I'd appreciate people not voting me until I finish re-reading. I don't want to get to the dead thread and find out that Duppin was the scum all along. Unlikely but the rest of you guys are so ridiculously complacent I'm having to cover everyone's bases.

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You suck at this game and at reading so maybe try that and it will answer your question.

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Like, I literally

just

went through why I'd rather lynch BNL and get it over with as a direct response to you and you somehow managed to not read a word.

BNL said "

GL should claim his target in twilight.

" That doesn't seem odd to you in any way? My guess is that scum have something else up their sleeve and I don't want to risk whatever it is. Maybe he's bulletproof or a 1X commuter or I don't know what role he could be. I don't want him winding up in mylo/lylo and having a shot at winning.

The annoying part is not that you're wrong. Everyone in his game including me had crappy reads. My issue is that you are not even trying or reading.

[Wingback]

No, I take that back. I said lynching Aristo, GL, BNL should win us the game so I was pretty on-track.

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Well, you can look stupid after my townflip.

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VOTE: Wingback

Did you read anything I wrote since the last time you posted?

I was about to make a case on BNL but considering I got put in a town with a bunch of people with severe reading comprehension issues, I don't know if it's worth it.

Glad we have enough PRs/conftowns to win. Hope we make it despite your inability to read the thread.

[Wingback]

Yeah, I did read what you posted and I responded to it with my concerns. I'd rather just lynch BNL now instead of risking it with whatever power he might have.

You said at the beginning that BNL was who you suspected over me. Why not lynch him first?

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Don't hammer just yet. Still need to get a post out.

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Just to be clear, here's why BNL is pretty blatantly scum. Please make sure to follow the links and read in its entirety:

1. Postie townread in Post 193 reads like an excuse to townread a town player under pressure. That last bit about Postie being town for townreading TTH after a recent scumgame of TTH's just ended makes no sense as Postie was modding the game in question so knew TTH's alignment there.
   
2. Going back to Elyse as late as page seven with the crap reasoning in Post 51 and no refining of his read.
   
3. Aristo's subtle defense of him in Post 228 after Postie voted him. Aristo agrees with Postie's read, then posts vague stuff trying to get her to change her read while also calling him scummy and taking care to not directly defend him. He's genuinely is trying to convince Postie here and not just taking a stand.
   
4. Hedges his read on Aristo in Post 259 and is very self-conscious about the fact that Aristo left his wagon.
   
5. Post 261 is a goldmine. Tries to weakly tie Postie to Aristo but he also needs an explanation for when Postie flips town so undercuts his reasoning with more junk about Postie/Aristo interactions on page ten which are null at best.
   
6. Not having a better place for his vote in Post 264 doesn't cut it since he expressed plenty of suspicion of Aristo.
   
7. Overall interactions with Aristo: whenever someone pushes either of them, the other agrees, but casts doubt on the read. See Aristo's Post 228 and BNL's Post 259 side by side.
   
8. Read change on Postie in Post 306 and Post 307 isn't bad reasoning-wise but the opportunism here after TTH, Duppin, and Elyse already commented on it is pretty blatant. Votes Potie in Post 311, it's notable how he never votes Aristo.
   
9. Eggs on the Postie wagon in Post 400 while immediately casting doubt in Post 401. Does both in Post 405.
   
10. Ridiculously convoluted reason to townread me in Post 456. When I point it out in Post 482, never responds.
    
11. Lots of hedging and pussyfooting around Postie-lynch in Post 487. Classic newb-scum. He wants to lynch to go through but is too hesitant to commit. He wants others to push the lynch and to wash his hands off of it so he turn around the next day and push those people.
    
12. Sets up next mislynch on GL in case of Postie townflip in Post 409. Sets up mislynch on me in case of Postie townflip in Post 493. If he truly thought Postie was town, he'd be voting the counterwagon Aristo, not sitting on his butt and setting up the next lynch.

So, compared to his enormous, steaming pile of scumminess sitting before you, you decided that me missing that mod's post where he said the game is 7:2 and re-reading the game so we don't lose to a potential Elyse or TTH scum is so scummy that it absolutely deserves a lynch.

It seems really obvious at this point that BNL has a bulletproof ability or some way to stop the vigkill given his trying to out the target. GL, if you don't understand why he's trying to out the target, the conclusion is that he's probably scum looking for information. I don't want to take any chances here. Lynch the scum and end the game.

[Wingback]

BNL, GL already stated he was going to shoot you so

I honestly don't get the point of what you're trying to do

, but I'm not bulletproof no.

He probably has some ability to dodge the vigkill and is trying to set up who he's going to push next. Vote him. He's scum.

[Wingback]

Hopefully we'll have a conf-town to assess the game in an unbiased fashion.

@GuiltyLion, TTH

, if you don't mind, unvote me until we have a replacement and they offer their thoughts. I just don't think letting BNL have the hammer is a particularly good move. I'm about 99% sure he's scum and I'd rather not leave it to him to end the day when he wants.

[Wingback]

This is annoying. GL, I see you online. Unvote quickly before BNL has a chance to get to this thread.

[Wingback]

Going to head off to bed. If I get hammered, don't let BNL get away. He does not deserve to win this game. I've outlined precisely why he's scum and needs to hang in Post 649. I'd appreciate if everyone reads it and comments on it even if don't want to read anything else although I did it partly for myself just so I can observe scum behaviors under a microscope.

We probably do have this game in the bag because of three conf-towns including a vig which means three town-sided kills. But that's exactly why I don't want to take chances and I don't feel like I'm doing my job as town if I don't pull out all the stops to prevent a mislynch and lynch scum. It's entirely possible scum have PRs to counter the powerful town and watching BNL somehow pull a win would be the worst outcome.

Bolding this because I'm tired of people not reading:

Please read Post 649 and let me know what you think of my points on BNL.

BNL is scum and it couldn't be more obvious.

[Wingback]

@GL, would you mind responding to Post 646 (and Post 649)? It would help a lot if the conf-towns actually play this game.

@Serra, you are conftown since TTH cleared Elyse as a VT. GL is conftown for claiming the vig-shot on Aristophanes and we know from the OP that we're in a 7 town, 2 scum setup. I'm strongly leaning TTH as town as I don't see why she would clear your predecessor at the point she did if she were scum - she's made it much harder for her to win. That leaves me, BNL, and Duppin. I'm townreading Duppin and think BNL is the remaining scum. I outline the reasons why in Post 649. But I'd suggest reading the entire game.

Also, I'm VT. Not bulletproof.

[Wingback]

Then you should vote him. I don't want to take any chances and I'd hate it if we somehow winded up losing this game because of some unforeseen circusmstance and it turned out I just lied down and let myself get lynched contributing to that loss. Beyond that, I rarely get mislynched as town and I don't feel like I'm pulling my weight if I haven't fought to the end with every last breath and tried every strategy to avoid getting lynched - unlynchable town wins games for town because the scum can't figure out who to lynch. The problem is that you seem interested in reading what I said so it's very challenging trying to convince you by trying to get your attention repeatedly. Read through Duppin again and I feel pretty confident it's not him so we should see the game end with a BNL lynch.

[Wingback]

EDIT: you

don't

seem interested in reading what I write so it's challenging.

[Wingback]

Even reading just D2, BNL hasn't done jack to try to figure out this game. I wanted us to cover all our bases so I looked through TTH and Elyse and read the game from the beginning. BNL summarized his neighborhood PT, pushed some weak suspicion of Elyse based on the Fire kill, and then settled into pushing the easiest target ever parroting what you, Elyse, and TTH already said about somehow finding it scummy that I thought you were a serial killer which is null as both town and scum have incentive to find the serial killer. When I pushed him to elaborate on it, he didn't even bother to respond. His posting regarding Aristo was scummy on both ends which I explain in my case as well.

[Wingback]

Like from an objective standpoint, I was pushing Postie because she was my top scumread and Aristo was the second. While it may be a "classic" strategy for scum to put their buddies as a secondary suspicion, a) I'd never do it precisely because Aristo was going down anyways and I'd want him as a

primary

suspicion, and b) my read on Postie being scummier than Aristo because of how much she DEFENDED Aristo is completely reasonable.

Compare that to BNL expressing immense amount of paranoia over the Postie flip to the extent he sets up his next pushes based on a Postie townflip, yet never actually voted Aristo to prevent this mislynch shows me he's just trying to look good and be "right" about the mislynch so he can push whoever led it.

[Wingback]

Your attempt at fake-scumhunting sucks.

You haven't even

attempted

to respond to my points about you and Aristo because you know I'm right. Instead you are throwing out buzzwords like "flailing" which you don't even seem to know the definition of, and elementary school theories like "defending yourself is scummy." Lol.

We're playing a closed setup. Assuming the game is solved and that we are in auto-win is naive at best.

[Wingback]

Your question relies on me being naive enough to think that the game is solved which I don't.

Just a note for everyone - BNL trying to shift the focus to a non-alignment indicative playstyle tell (why are you defending yourself?) from the actual alignment-relevant interaction case with flipped scum that I pointed out in Post 649 as well as in my posts on this page should indicate that he is scum.

[Wingback]

He has no answer at all. Literally the only thing he came up with was "why are you defending yourself and pushing me?" in a closed setup.

[Wingback]

So I agree with duppin being town, and I believe TTH's crumb.

IPS was quite soft-defendy towards aristo, and didn't really mention him otherwise.

I'm still confused about how overpowered town seems to be.

I've mostly seen this from scum.

Do we think the remaining scum is a neighbour?

IPS's Post 28 is pretty blatant for scum to scum interactions. I'm obviously biased but I've found it rare for scum, especially newbie scum to go out on a limb for their partner. There is often a tendency to want to be "right" about their partners. Aristo's Post 30 is him throwing shade on my slot without backing it up and I'm again biased but scum wouldn't be so hesitant to push a partner as they while pushing a townie because they are afraid of a townie pushing them back and stepping on toes. I wouldn't say IPS-Aristo conclusively clears me but just compare with Aristo-BNL and BNL's play around the D1 lynch where he repeatedly tries to set up players based on Postie's townflip and never votes Aristo who was a potential alternate wagon.

On town power: here's what we have: a neighbor, a neapolitan, a doc that only protects town, and an ascetic vig in a Micro. That's a whole lot of town power. The setup influences our reads and I do think that unless there is something that we haven't foreseen, town is fairly OP.

I actually think the setup is less OP if the remaining scum is a neighbor considering that's one additional player that can't be confirmed by the neapolitan. That's partly why I'm concerned that there is something I'm missing. But with Duppin and BNL, side-by-side, I find it hard to see Duppin as scum. He voted Aristo early, switched to Postie when Postie started defending Aristo. This was a similar thought process to what I, GL, and TTH had. With BNL, he distanced from Aristo for a while but kept his focus on the Postie wagon and who pushed it. I'll point out specific posts in a bit.

[Wingback]

Here's a sample of BNL's posting D1:

I explained my Postie townread in 193.
Tell me why you said 152 is doubting my Elyse read? I just said that wasn't sure of her posting.

I don't know how I missed that post. The subsequent ones explain away most of my I'll feelings too. And the tone of them is towny. I'm sorry I missed them!
UNVOTE:

239 pings me so hard. The overjustified, apologetic unvote of Bullet, the slight shade at Postie, the ridiculous defense of Bullet at the end when you were voting him like two posts earlier.

That was such an awkward and complete backoff of Bullet for "towny toned posts that you missed". Like are you even reading the game? You've "missed" a crazy amount of posts.

I wouldn't be surprised with a Bullet/Aris scumteam.

I actually have to agree with Elyse that Ari "missing" that many posts is suspicious. And his followed townread on my next posts seem really lazy. Though I don't really understand the scum motivation behind leaving my wagon at L-2.

Context: Aristo's has three votes and garnered suspicion from another player Elyse (your slot). He doesn't defend Aristo. He agrees with Elyse's suspicion of him but townreads him for another really weak reason (Aristo moving off from the BNL wagon). I actually found that scummy and this reads like a very self-conscious mention of his partner's scummy play. BNL here was referring to Aristo's Post 239.

I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post. You agree that this does not seem like his townplay, so where exactly are you going with this?

I agree but I see little reason to suppose this is scum!Aristo as opposed to just different!Aristo.

I still don't get the point. It sounds like you're trying to discourage me from voting on Aristo for no apparent reason. I honestly don't think your post makes much sense, so I ask you gain, what was the point of it?

I am also agreeing with duppin here that Postie seems to be discouraging the Ari wagon subtly... but the Postie/Ari conversation at the top of page 10 definitely doesn't look like scum/scum interactions.

Postie, can you explain what "different Aristo" means?

This half-tying Postie and Aristo together but also leaving room to push Aristo when Postie flips town.

UNVOTE:

I am becoming less sure on Elyse, I feel that my read on her is stale, also, I have more scumreads now.

Keeping an eye on Aristo. Also I'm becoming less sure on Postie, she was my strongest townread but it was only over a few points; many of her recent posts are worrying me.

VOTE: Wingback

I'm not scumreading him or IPS, but I want him to post stuff ASAP. Also I don't really have a better place for my vote now.

"Keeping an eye on Aristo" but in the very next post, he "doesn't have a better place to vote." Aristo at that point had three votes on him so this reads like a hesitance to put him at L-1. He couldn't directly jump to Postie since he had previously expressed a townread on her so this "I don't have a better place to put my vote."

[Wingback]

Votecount 1.13:

Aristophanes (4): GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart, duppin, Elyse,
Elyse (1): Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
Wingback (1): BulletNLynchproof
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Postie (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): Aristophanes

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

I suggest reading the entirety of page 13 to get a sense of context. At the votecount at the top, Aristo has L-1, Postie has no votes. Duppin switches from Aristo to Postie and Elyse seems like she might want to switch as well. Then in Post 306, he starts scumreading Postie who he was previously townreading. He re-iterates Duppin's points over the next few posts (Post 307 to post 311 ultimately voting Postie in 311. The reasoning isn't bad because he's borrowing Duppin's and other player's reasons but the timing is opportunistic.

After the wagon switches to Postie:

Votecount 1.16:

Postie (4): duppin, BulletNLynchproof, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
Aristophanes (1): Elyse
Elyse (1): Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
BulletNLynchproof (1): Postie
Wingback (0):
GuiltyLion (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): Aristophanes

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch

This is where he unvotes and starts the "mislynch analysis" on the Postie wagon while taking care to still keeping pushing her.

Posts like this:

So one thing that is bothering me is that Postie is basically OMGUSing everyone on her wagon. Like, her first post after someone else's vote on her is a scumread on that person.

Egging on the wagon to justify putting his vote back if needed, but at the same time, posts like this:

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

where he starts "worrying" about the wagon and how everyone has agreed on it. Doesn't name names just yet. Doesn't suggest that the wagon move to his other scumread Aristo where there was plenty of support.

Hey guys, wanna wagon BNL? You both have him as null/scum, right?

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Idk why, but this post reminds me of this. They feel similar.

I am wary of wagoning Postie, however.

This is the weakest garbage suspicion I've seen. He links to another game where a scum player votes him (implying that Postie is scum) but immediately talks about how he's wary of wagoning Postie.

Actually you know when I went back and re-ISO'd Aristophanes from College Mafia (where he was scum) vs games I've seen him as town (Word Sneak 2, ⅋, Town of Helen), I wasn't sold on his ISO in this game being as scummy as I had thought previously.

I might prefer a Postie lynch, it feels like all this argument defending her opinion about his wagon being a mislynch is coming from a place of her holding onto a need for projected consistency rather than genuine reasoning. Post 356 is particularly bad, because it requires an implicit assumption (that TTH already pointed out) of TTH thinking Aristo can only be scum with Wingback. I don't think town!Postie would automatically make that assumption, it reads to me as if she's forcing it.

VOTE: Postie
I also didn't like her accusing BNL of opportunism.

I don't like this post and vote, not only is it opportunistic, but I find it overexplained. The first part is bad, looking for a reason to leave Aristo, possibly for him to look more townie. But the reason is lazy.

I am also wary of GL's buddying of me.

If Postie is town GL is someone I definitely want to have a look at.

The setting up starts here. All this while BNL was subtly encouraging the Postie wagon choosing it over Aristo's while at the same time deciding who to push next if Postie flips town. If he was so cautious about Postie and thought she was town, why not push Aristo - the other viable wagon at this point?

Crap reasoning for townreading me in Post 456. I called him out on it in Post 482. Never responds. Just read this post.

Okay, so the problem is that, while I do agree that Postie is scummy and has still been acting scummy,

there is too much support for her lynch

, to the extent that lynching Postie seems too easy, trappish, etc.

I do think that it is plausible that Postie is scum with someone that I would like to hide for now (no, not Wingback, I know I said that earlier but that's changed), but otherwise think Postie is a mislynch.

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

tl;dr Postie is scummy but I have really bad feelings about the lynch.

This post is such a goldmine. He wants Postie lynched but talks about how easy it is and then undercuts his reasoning with "Postie could be being bussed" which is sort of an obvious conclusion that doesn't need saying. It reads like scum wanting the lynch to go through and to set up the townies that pushed it without taking a solid stance for it (or a solid stance against it, because if he defended Postie hard, Aristo was the next viable option).

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

I don't think Wingback is Postie's partner; if Wingback is scum it makes more sense for Postie to be a mislynch IMO.

I almost wanted to rule out GL off the top of my head, but seeing their double ISO there might have been some forced interactions. I'm still leaning that they aren't scumbuddies though.

Unfortunately I didn't have time today to research thoroughly. I'll continue tomorrow.

Setting up a mislynch on me and GL. Both of us aren't scumbuddies with Postie but we could be scum if Postie is a mislynch.

Votecount 1.23:

Postie (5): duppin, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart, Wingback, Aristophanes
Aristophanes (2): Elyse, Fire Assassin
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
Fire Assassin (0):
Elyse (0):
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Wingback (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): BulletNLynchproof

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Notes:

Hammer!

Here's the end of day vote count. Aristo quickhammered but the deadline was approaching anyways. BNL was consistently hand-wringing over the Postie lynch and busy setting up the next lynches but never once pushes the Postie counterwagon on Aristo. He's just sitting there not voting anyone.

[Wingback]

So this is tough. I think the setup works better with both neighbours town.

I'm a bit worried that neither wingback nor BNL are trying to throw suspicion on duppin.

It does. I feel I got the short end of the stick here because having an extra unconfirmable townie indeed makes more sense. I don't have an answer for that except that the mod didn't seem to have balanced it perfectly and I know I'm town.

I did re-read Duppin for that reason and I haven't found anything unreasonable in his posting. He pushed Aristo early and later switched to Postie but his reasoning and the way he was treating Aristo/Postie felt more like he was uninformed. For example, worrying that Postie was defending a town-Aristo for the towncred and it seemed like that when I was playing in real time because I could not understand Postie's Aristo defense either. That's also why I wanted fresh eyes on the game to see if you saw anything about Duppin that we all missed.

[Wingback]

Not a preference. I think BNL is scum and the game will end upon his lynch. If we somehow end up losing, I don't want to feel as though I didn't do everything in my power to lynch him and avoid my own mislynch. More of a personal philosophy I suppose. I hate it when people just lie down and let themselves get lynched. Makes the game ten times easier for scum when that happens.

[Wingback]

I'm pretty happy calling Duppin and TTH town.

Also, "at least I got one more mislynch" is silly. There is no real difference in outcome. But there is a difference between letting yourself get mislynched and not. (Also, I hate complacency and as far as I'm concerned, this is a closed setup and I'm not assuming we already won the game). If I'm wrong, good but I prefer to be safe than sorry.

If you actually read my case(s) on BNL, you'd see that. He doesn't respond to my points and instead goes off on "you are being defensive" because he pegged that as part of my personality that he could push on. His interaction with Aristo is classic scum to scum especially towards the end.

If I'm wrong here and get vigged, assuming a TTH/Duppin/Serra LYLO, go for Duppin. It's not just TTH's claim. When I re-read her posts about Aristo, I understood her arguments perfectly, and also thought where and how she went after Postie was reasonable. I'm not that certain about Duppin. He did switch from Aristo to Postie at a fairly crucial time but his reasoning that Postie was trying to gather towncred from Aristo was also very reasonable. I think if he were scum with Aristo, he would have gone with saying that Postie and Aristo were partnered which would give him an easy Postie push. So yeah, it's hard to see either of them as scum actually. If TTH is scum, she took a TTH/Elyse/Duppin 3-way and cleared her mislynch target when there was no guarantee that she would win against Duppin. I'd go for Duppin but only marginally. More likely it's just BNL.

[Wingback]

Nope. Not bulletproof.

[Wingback]

Actually the more I think about it, the more I could see TTH over Duppin. Assuming TTH is a scum neapolitan who checked Elyse coming into D2, the lynches were set up such that we'd be looking at a TTH/Elyse/Duppin lylo. There's no guarantee that she would have escaped the noose or convinced Duppin that Elyse was scum. Why

wouldn't

she make a bold move and clear her N1 target and let Elyse decide the fate of the game? It's a near guarantee that her move would cause Elyse (and others) to townread her. Food for thought.

Sort of playing devil's advocate here. If you do wind up in lylo, I think weighing that in would be cool. We've all convinced ourselves that TTH wouldn't make that move but she's reasonably experienced at the game to anticipate that this would be our reaction.

[Wingback]

I think that's a hammer. If we're wrong here, I'd go for TTH over Duppin. That last post where she clears Duppin seems like she's stretching, I don't like her complete lack of trying to read me, her lurkish, low-involvement D2 and lack of engagement.

I think if she's scum neapolitan, it isn't out of the question to crumb her role especially since if she changes her mind and later claims VT, no one's going to go "hey, that was a neapolitan pizza!" I do think that an ascetic vig doesn't make sense with a scum neapolitan, makes more sense as one more unconfirmable role. However, I think the mod could have wanted to make the vig unprotectable by the doc.

Still think it's BNL but just in case.

[Wingback]

Well, I'm town. Assume I get vigged and flip. Why Duppin over TTH?

[Wingback]

Admittedly, Duppin's vote on you wasn't the best and it seemed like he was trying ensure that he absolutely doesn't get lynched but that's null at best. He also wasn't very present in the game.

But TTH's utter refusal to read either of us beyond "BNL is town because neighbor" when she is self-aware about being bad at setup spec reads off. I mean, if she's not a big setup person as she says, why wouldn't she read our back and forth, read my case, analyze interactions with Aristo, etc? She did absolutely zilch and in the game where I've played with TTH-town, she spent a lot more effort getting reads.

[Wingback]

Duppin is online now and not posting here so it could be him. I'm just very confused. I need to sleep but I'm pretty sure the thread will be locked by the time I wake up so I'll read through the game and post whatever I can to help Serra make the final decision.

[Wingback]

You better not be trolling me. I'll be annoyed if I spent a couple of hours in the middle of the night for nothing.

[Wingback]

I don't really care to defend myself since the vig has a hard-on for me and there's no way he's shooting anyone but me although I'd prefer him to shoot TTH. Right now, I'm just focusing on which of TTH or Duppin are scum because that's the game-deciding lynch.

Also, this:

You better not be trolling me. I'll be annoyed if I spent a couple of hours in the middle of the night for nothing.

[Wingback]

Scum in times of desperation try to gain as much towncred as possible when the game is solved by staying off lynch wagons, although their lynch is inevitable. Look at whay droog did after the D3 lynch in Mini 1757.

Isn't that what TTH did? She voted me when it seemed like you were the lynch for the day with two votes on you and Serra saying he was going to switch and GL having unvoted me.