Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[Wingback]

Hi. Was following the game. Lane and GuiltyLion are townreads. I agree that we should lynch the corners. That's me, Lane, Luna Fox, and Dunnstral. I have a slight townread on Luna because it seemed like she was genuinely trying to figure out both the tic tac toe aspect as well as having trouble nailing down townreads which I see as very understandable. The fact that the two townreads she had are the same ones I do is another reason I lean town.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Both POE and I'm happy with the Lane/GuiltyLion corner making it deep into the game.

[Wingback]

Well I'm town and Luna probably is too so that doesn't really change my mind. Maybe go over why you think Luna is scum.

Given that my sole post in the game is voting you, that reads like a transparent omgus.

Furthermore, since you are so well-versed in tic tac toe, you would have noticed that lynching you puts both me and Luna among the lynchable candidates on D2.

_ _ _
_ O _
X _ _

The board looks like this after the D1 lynch of you and N1 kill on the IC. The only poor choice of lynch would be Lane. If you want me and Luna dead, town would lynch Alpaca:

_ _ _
X O _
X _ _

which would force a kill on me

O _ _
X O _
X _ _

follwed by a forced lynch on Luna.

That way BOTH of me/Luna are dead before D4 and neither make it to LYLO. But you clearly don't want to die so are suggesting lynching the IC.

[Wingback]

Hold off on hammering for a while. Even if he's scum, going into D2 with a complete lack of associative tells isn't a good strategy. Let's let everyone post and contribute and talk about their reads. Specifically Alpaca, Umlaut, and Javajoe need to contribute more mafia-game related content.

[Wingback]

UNVOTE: for now. We've still got two days.

[Wingback]

I can definitely see lanes argument about if we lynch in the middle we can force scums NK's to what we want it to be, and I think that will probably be our best strategy. I cant believe I am actually agreeing with killing an IC.....

I do not agree with lynching the IC. Honestly I think this strategy is more likely to come from scum than town.

Explain this. When Lane suggests it, you agree with it and say that it might be our best strategy and explicitly don't scumread Lane. But when Dunnstral suggests it, that stance changes to scum being more likely to bring it up and you move in to give an intent to hammer.

[Wingback]

That's actually really fake and opportunistic. Thinking Java is scum here and if he wasn't an edge, I'd probably want to lynch him.

[Wingback]

@Umlaut, can you explain why you were voting Luna and my slot? The only reason you gave was that my slot was far away from you that shows a very survivalistic mindset which is the same thing you are accusing Java of.

[Wingback]

Lanes pretty adamant about lynching the IC at least in his first six posts (ISO#0 - ISO#5). That's what his debate with GuiltyLion was about. Then he changes his mind.

But the point is, when Lane was pushing that arguement, Java agreed with it (Post 34), but when Dunnstral pushed it, Java said it was more likely to come from scum (Post 126). Given Dunnstral was being wagoned and Java stated intent to hammer, this about-turn reeks of scum opportunism.

[Wingback]

On that note, I have three solid townreads so early on into the game (Lane, GuiltyLion, Luna Fox), and there's an IC.

From my POV, that leaves all the scum between [Javajoe, Dunnstral, Alpaca x2, Unlaut].

[Wingback]

Here's how I want to do it, Lynches in Blue, Nighkills in Orange:

Wingback	GuiltyLion	Lane0168
AlpacaAlpaca	Mcmenno	Javajoe24
Dunnstral	Ümläüt	Luna Fox

After the first lynch-nightkill cycle, beginning of D2:

Wingback	GuiltyLion	Lane0168
AlpacaAlpaca	Mcmenno	Javajoe24
Dunnstral	Ümläüt	Luna Fox

I think lynching me is pretty optimal here given who I want dead. After the second lynch-nightkill cycle, beginning of D3:

Wingback	GuiltyLion	Lane0168
AlpacaAlpaca	Mcmenno	Javajoe24
Dunnstral	Ümläüt	Luna Fox

D3 lynch is forced on Javajoe. Scum kill Lane (worst case).

Wingback	GuiltyLion	Lane0168
AlpacaAlpaca	Mcmenno	Javajoe24
Dunnstral	Ümläüt	Luna Fox

Town can lynch Umlaut from there.

Assuming I'm right about Lane/GL/Luna being town of course which I'm fairly confident about. If not, whoever's left in LYLO should be able to figure that out better. But I really want Alpaca and Java to hang, the former for total lack of contribution and the latter for opportunism. Maybe Dunnstral as well. I thought he was scummy but probably not in a scumteam with Javajoe.

[Wingback]

There have been a lot of arguments made for lynching in the corners since my post 34, and why it is better than lynching in the center. I have taken all the strategies suggested to decide for myself which I believe to be the best, and came to the conclusion of corners. If you were to read my ISO you would see that I was very hesitant to agree with lynching in the middle and post 34 is the only time I have agreed with it. But with my perspective now, with new information, I can see that scum would most likely push for a lynch on the IC and not give the town the first corner pick. In any tic tac toe games I have ever played I personally pick the corner first because you have more options from there.

Okay, a couple of things:

a) You personally pick the corner first when you play Tic Tac Toe, so why didn't you disagree with Lane and talk about the values of picking the corner?
b) You're not scumreading Lane for suggesting that we lynch the middle. So, why Dunnstral?

[Wingback]

And if scum don't nightkill mcmenno?

That's an auto-loss of the Tic Tac Toe game. We'd only need to hit one scum in four lynches to win.

[Wingback]

@Dunnstral, here's a graph with all the win possibilities:



In your scenario, let's say they kill Lane after we lynch you. We lynch me or Luna. Say we lynch Luna, they are forced to kill Umlaut N2. D3, lynch me. If any combination of GuiltyLion, Java, and Alpaca are both scum, they win. Hmm, maybe it's not autowin. But lynching the IC isn't very likely to get us into auto-win scenarios either.

But you are suggesting that you want me and Luna dead and haven't even glanced at Java and Alpaca so from your POV, this argument doesn't really flow from where your head's at suspicion-wise.

It seems like you are just coming up with arguments to dodge your lynch but not any methods of getting rid of your scumreads. In the scenario where one or both of me and Luna are scum, lynching you is a pretty clear way to eliminate us but none of your plans are suggesting the obvious. It can't be because you know you are town. You'd go so far as to lynch the IC who you also know is town, but not yourself.

[Wingback]

I'd be willing to lynch in a way that luna/java joe both die

I thought you wanted me and Luna to both die. What happened to that? Why are you scumreading Luna in the first place anyways?

[Wingback]

I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno

I find the exclusion of Lane conspicuous as he was a universal townread. Is there a reason you have reservations about him?

I'm calling a Luna+Alpaca scumteam tbh. I'm drunk rn but I'll be back for actual play tomorrow

When you are back, I'm interested in talking about the Luna scumread.

[Wingback]

I was going over all the possibilities and a few thoughts I want to get out. We can't ignore the Tic Tac Toe aspect of the game because unless we chose lynches strategically, it's possible that the mafia can control our lynches. When we make our choice for the D2 lynch, we're essentially making our D3 lynch choice as well. Our choices on D1 influence the D2 choices that we can make.

Because of that, we shouldn't be looking at "lynching" scummy players. We should be thinking about a strategy that gets the four towniest people alive into the night before 3P LYLO. Then scum kill who they want before 3P. Obviously, if both scum are in this group of four players, we lose. Our goal should be for at least one scum to die before that, if not both.

All of this is contingent on scum killing McMenno N1. If they don't, sucks for them. We'll have an easier time and I'll make a new table tomorrow.

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	Alive night before LYLO
Dunnstral	Wingback AlpacaAlpaca Javajoe	Lane GuiltyLion Umlaut Luna Fox
Dunnstral	Luna Fox Umlaut GuiltyLion	Lane Alapaca Javajoe Wingback
Dunnstral	AlpacaAlpaca Wingback Luna Fox	Lane GuiltyLion Umlaut Javajoe
Dunnstral	Umlaut Luna Fox Wingback	Lane GuiltyLion Alpaca Javajoe

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	Alive night before LYLO
Luna Fox	Dunnstral Umlaut Guilty Lion	Wingback Alpaca Javajoe Lane
Luna Fox	Lane Javajoe Alpaca	Wingback GuiltyLion Umlaut Dunnstral
Luna Fox	Umlaut Dunnstral Lane	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca Javajoe
Luna Fox	Javajoe Lane Dunnstral	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca Umlaut

Given Dunnstral and Luna Fox are attracting the most pressure, I've outlined possible scenarios that happen upon both of their lynches. The second column is ordered by D2 lynch at the top, N2 kill, then D3 lynch.

I'd like everyone to comment on who they want to lynch and why they want a specific set of four people alive the night before LYLO.

My choice is Option #1 in Dunnstral's table.

I could do two more tables for me and Lane but it's tedious and I'm busy. I'll do them if there's demand for them. I want to see everyone posting and justifying their reads especially the group of Alpaca, Javajoe, Umlaut, and Dunnstral who are my non-townreads. Ignoring the mafia aspect is a good way to make it more difficult to get reads and win.

[Wingback]

I thought you were scumreading me. What happened to that?

[Wingback]

Knowing that lynching Luna puts me in LYLO, there's a lot of scum motive for you to stop scumreading me so you can push her lynch over yours. Can you elaborate on what specific posts of mine changed your read and why?

[Wingback]

@Dunnstral; What are your thoughts on all the players? Do you have a list of reads?

[Wingback]

Thanks for typing those out Wingback.

For a Luna Fox lynch I like option 2, for a Dunnstral lynch I like option 3. But that's mostly shaped by me not wanting Luna or Alpaca to make it to final four people alive.

Not sure I want Umlaut and Javajoe at the end. I suspected bussing when Umlaut pushed on Javajoe so early in the game. In this setup bussing isn't a bad idea given the lynch setups are mostly determined in advance so in scenarios where scum die, it's best if their partner comes out looking good by having accused them.

Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?

I disagree with Luna being scum for buddying Lane. For someone espousing a townhunting + POE style, it makes sense to latch onto a few townreads and lynch outside of that. My main reason for townreading Luna include suggesting the possibility of her lynch, pro-activeness in developing two quick townreads as early as page one (Post 21, Post 22), those townreads being the same ones as mine, asking whether scum can kill themselves in thread as opposed to in the scum PT (Post 28), saying that Blitz game is making it harder for her to get townreads which reads like genuine concern (Post 53), not using that excuse to not have townreads (she's already got three, you, me, and Lane), townreading me despite my lynch on D1 being beneficial to her as it gets her into LYLO.

Actually, going through her ISO, I do want a question answered from Luna Fox.

@Luna Fox;

what's your read on Javajoe and what did you think about the points I made on him and clarified for you yesterday?

[Wingback]

@GL - you make some good points especially w.r.t Umlaut/Javajoe. That tells me I've missed something in my tables: that we can control that mafia's N3 kill in certain combinations. Going to re-do them while adding this and re-assess.

[Wingback]

So from my understanding of things, if we lynch dunn today then tomorrow we will lynch lane by strategy, and if we lynch luna then we lynch wing tomorrow by strategy? If this is the case, that is a harsh choice to make because I have a town read on both of them, but am perfectly happy with a luna or dunn lynch, but preferably a dunn lynch.

Can you go over all your reads and why you have them?

[Wingback]

@Luna, while you're here, can you post your actual reads on the game so far? It would help if I can get a more solid read on you and that's been hard given that most of the discussion was based on Tic Tac Toe.

[Wingback]

Some explanations to go with those reads would be great as well.

[Wingback]

Do you have any thoughts on the people in your leftovers pile?

[Wingback]

Yeah, I thought so too. Normally I wouldn't worry because even if I'm scumreading the better scum players, there's generally enough time to re-evaluate. But this game has short deadlines and some forced lynches which makes me worry. Many people are also focused on the Tic Tac Toe aspect and not scumhunting enough. I just want to get as much information out there as possible so that whoever is in LYLO can hunt for associatives well.

[Wingback]

It's almost funny how in the activity overview, the top four posters are the four corners. Besides you, the edges seem to have coasted somewhat knowing they won't be lynched today.

[Wingback]

As I said before, I forgot to add something to the table (the fact that some combinations can force a scumkill on someone we want N3). I'll add that and update in a bit. Don't want people working off of incomplete information.

[Wingback]

Correcting what was wrong with the previous tables:

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	N3 kill	Alive
Dunnstral	Wingback AlpacaAlpaca Javajoe	Lane/ GuiltyLion/ Umlaut/ Luna Fox	(Scum's choice)
Dunnstral	Luna Fox Umlaut GuiltyLion	Lane/ Alapaca/ Javajoe/ Wingback	(Scum's choice)
Dunnstral	AlpacaAlpaca Wingback Luna Fox	Umlaut	Lane GuiltyLion Javajoe
Dunnstral	Umlaut Luna Fox Wingback	Alpaca	Lane GuiltyLion Javajoe

D1 Lynch	D2-N2-D3 deaths	N3 Kill	Alive
Luna Fox	Dunnstral Umlaut Guilty Lion	Wingback/ Alpaca/ Javajoe/ Lane	(Scum's choice)
Luna Fox	Lane Javajoe Alpaca	Wingback/ GuiltyLion/ Umlaut/ Dunnstral	(Scum's choice)
Luna Fox	Umlaut Dunnstral Lane	Javajoe	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca
Luna Fox	Javajoe Lane Dunnstral	Umlaut	Wingback GuiltyLion Alpaca

Alright, figured it out. We force the N3 scum kill if we lynch an edge on D2 rather than a corner. So, in half the scenarios, they kill who they want. In the other half, it's forced.

I don't know which is better. The info from nightkills or just having a concensus townread alive.

Going to catch up on the last few pages before voting.

[Wingback]

Javajoe24

sat on the fence in the center-corner wars, inexplicably unvoted because "RVS is over," pushed a policy lynch on replacement-bait,

Didn't you do the same thing by putting your vote on my predecessor because he was far away from you?

[Wingback]

Oh yeah, that's right. Forgot about that. Ignore the "correction." The original table is accurate.

[Wingback]

Okay, so from the original (accurate) table in Post 178, I think options one and three for Dunnstral are our best bet. I explained why on option one. For option 3, that self-vote by Luna makes me question what she's smoking and leaving her alive in LYLO is a risk. I want to flip Dunnstral and then work out associatives from there to see which way to go. Think he's going to flip scum based on how survivalistic his reads are and how he's changing them around to make sure he doesn't have to advocate for his lynch.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Luna Fox (L-3) Dunnstral, Luna Fox
Dunnstral (L-1) Ümläüt, McMenno, lane0168, Wingback
Not Voting (4): GuiltyLion, AlpacaAlpaca, Javajoe24,

[Wingback]

Okay. That rubbed me the wrong way but I suppose I could see that.

On another note, if one corner is lynched, the other corner gets to LYLO. If somebody else was opposite Luna Fox, I'd suspect that the self-vote was a way to get her partner into LYLO, even better if they're widely townread. But I'm actually town which makes me think I'm being cunningly set up. Another reason I'm quite happy with neither me or Luna making it to LYLO.