Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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This game setup seems pretty straight forward. Being able to lynch based off of probabilities is best and with a complete matrix of choices makes our odds of hitting scum that much better, not to mention clearing town when we nail scum in a pair. ZZZX, your method seems too convoluted when it doesn't need to be so. Lying doesn't seem to benefit scum from what I can tell, after all the only thing the matrix offers is probability and not absolutes, so there is that...
Scum Team can't be:
ZZZZX and Secret Agent Jin
OR
ArcAngel9 and Tenshii
I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't want the game to be "solved"...
VOTE: Dunhallym
This IS scum-hunting darling! Oh and if I am starting the popcorn. You are next! It's too bad I didn't get you in my picks, however someone else may have.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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What good point is that?In post 24, Gamma Emerald wrote:Dunhal raises a good point-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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This is cute... I am actually kind of curious to see your picks.In post 10, Tenshii wrote:VOTE: Creature
VOTE: ZZZX
I am town 1-shot double voter. Fortunately, I already found the scumteam. Also I think we should scumhunt first, then reveal unpicks later on.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Its better to have it now so that we have time to construct the matrix and evaluate it for most likely to be scum. It's another piece of the puzzle that will help back scum into a corner. The later we get it out, the less time we have to use it. What exactly are you leaving scum in the dark about? Tell me how you plan on catching scum by doing.... what exactly?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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**Takes Finger Out of Nose** OH! Right....
So here is where I am at. I kinda like Jaacks plan, and I am getting town feels from him so I think a debate between {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel} is great. They are all three the most probable to be scum from what I understand in the chart, although not necessarily guaranteed to be scum. I am no statistician, but I think the odds are really pretty low that scum isn't in that group.
Dunhallym is highly likely town, or really good scum, town for me though. Initially wants to start out scum-hunting and has followed through with the scum-hunting. Seems genuine.
Arc Angel really could swing both ways for me. If someone hasn't ever seen a matrix before, its pretty understandable that she could be confused there? I can see what Dunhallym is getting at with the why follow the crowd when you don't have a clue what's going on though...
There are a few posts that I don't like about Jin.
^This after Jaack puts him in a pool of three lynch candidates.In post 80, Secret Agent Jin wrote:need Jaack to be in all my games from now on.
^If that's not a defensive post, I'm not sure what is... and apparently Jaack is scum for being defensive?In post 93, Secret Agent Jin wrote: You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jaack
Classic "Caught for the Wrong Reasons" Post. Aaaand then AtE.In post 117, Secret Agent Jin wrote:I dont agree with his vote being placed on me because some chart tells him to. Find reasons to vote me or someone else, dont vote me because a chart says that i have a large amount of possible scumteam combinations left.
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Could only vote for one person, and it wasn't really a concrete anything to go off of, just a starting point.In post 87, Dunhallym wrote:@ProHawk
I forgot the question I had for you yesterday night.
You said you suspected me because I wanted to postpone the claims. Yet you didn't say anything about Tenshii who gave the same thought. Why?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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And points for Tenshii not really reading the thread?
Maybe I have to spell everything out?
IE: "Lynch me and I flip town, you waste a day and lose one town and now YOU are closer to losing" - Emotional, fear-mongering, whatever you want to call it.In post 117, Secret Agent Jin wrote:Say everyone went with your chart and voted me, now you have a mislynch when i flip town, a wasted day phase, and one less town member which puts you closer to losing. I will unvote Jaack but i swear if he turns out to be scum, i will be upset at you all.
"I will be upset at you all" - Not sure how you CAN'T say this is emotion.
I guess we can do a quick test... What is my 1st reason for scumreading Jin?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Huh?In post 128, Tenshii wrote:He goes from a lean town read to a lean scum read in one sentence.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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That's the thing.... who are other possible scum Jin?In post 122, Secret Agent Jin wrote:If you think i am scum then vote me and when i am lynched ill flip town or you could back off of me and look at other possible scum.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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This is precisely why you only would have to re-iterate this point as scum and not town, to CONVINCE people you are town.In post 133, Secret Agent Jin wrote:Wouldnt any town be upset at the fact that they had a scumread on scum and they got lynched instead of the scum?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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WRT Jin and Jaack, Jaack puts Jin into a possible scum-pool, then Jin compliments Jaack. Brown-nosing, sucking up, buddying, whatever you want to call it. Have you never seen scum do this?
P-EDIT: Drive-by posts: Posts that have little to no thought behind them. Quick posts mostly to just post and get the appearance of participating. If you read his posts (ISO) they look (at least to me) like he doesn't really have any motivation to find who scum is, which is usually a scum-trait because they already know who scum are.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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I don't know what AI stands for... And I disagree with you, if you are scum, you will be VERY upset that you are getting lynched based on statistics. Yes, I am talking about scum buddying. Scum has more motivation than town to do this IMO.In post 145, Tenshii wrote:And even then I don't understand why it would be AI. Jaack's scum-pool was based off of statistics in the first place, so you can't particularly get heated about it or anything. Are you talking about scum buddying up to Jaack for putting effort into things like making charts? I have seen that. But I have seen town do that as well.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Yes... I could see that, however as scum this will potentially cost your team the game. As town, your team still has a good chance of winning.In post 149, Tenshii wrote:It might just be me but I'd get upset if I got lynched based on statistics for either alignment.
P-EDIT: Yes, Jin that actually is a decent point on that...
Tenshii, that is EXACTLY what I meant with Gamma.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Then lets hear them.In post 151, Secret Agent Jin wrote:@ProHawk First of all i never said i dont have scumreads,-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Isn't this who you replaced? Why is the first thing you comment on?In post 208, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Really not getting why Jin kept saying he never TRed Jaack.
Post #210 from Smart is pretty intense.
I may be aggressive, not sure I agree with the quick to accuse part, but go ahead and meta me, since you like that sorta stuff?In post 210, Something_Smart wrote:ProHawk is really aggressive and quick to accuse
I would like you to expound on why My/Jin's interactions are scum v town. AND I want to know what you disagree with my posts on Gamma - Take into consideration I have no experience with his playstyle.
Is this for me?In post 223, Something_Smart wrote:
Oh and I feel better about Gamma.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Can you expound on ZZZX please?In post 185, Dunhallym wrote:To sum up my thoughts: I originally disliked Jaack's plan but Jin and Arc are my main suspects at the moment, with ZZZX as a runnerup.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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What part of my vote was unfair? He calls someone scum for being defensive or weird and then does the same thing. Do tell how my case is "contrived". What "signs" of scumhunting was Jin showing?In post 252, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:I think the way PH attacked Jin up until 172 was very unfair and if you look at the way Jin was talking up to that point you'll see that he did admit that he voted purely in reaction to Jaack's vote.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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He's doing his own bit of scumhunting which seems genuine, not drive-by-sheeping anymore.In post 244, Something_Smart wrote:what is making you feel better about Gamma now?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Oh this is cute... not even close to me talking about Jin! Post 131 was me trying to get a better read on Jin.In post 261, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
When pressed by Tenshii for more legitimate reasons for pushing Jin, ProHawk's initial response is to be vague about why he's pushing Jin. This makes me think he is using these aggressive pushes to try to get Jin to say something that will become the reason for players to push him, which Jin eventually does in 172.In post 141, ProHawk wrote:
I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.
Right....In post 261, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:The only player behaving scummy to this point is PH
Also, I don't think, nor said that Jaacks post was a defensive post. Jin did, and then he made one himself. This leads me to believe that Jin doesn't actually believe that posting defensively is a scum-tell.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.In post 283, Dunhallym wrote:Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Plausibility? Nope.In post 284, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:ProHawk, Gamma - Tell us what you think of the plausibility of the other being scum with Tenshii please. Reads on Tenshii from each of you would also be appreciated. I'm leaning towards Gamma/Tenshii being more likely than ProHawk/Tenshii here.
Am I the only one who thinks its extremely odd you feel that a Gamma/Tenshii team is more likely? And if you really do, why would you not start the flash-wagon on Gamma instead of Tenshii?-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Not a fan, but that's mostly because I'm never in them... lolIn post 292, Gamma Emerald wrote:@All except ssbm and Something_Smart: what do you think of the townblock idea?
Also, its usually a clever way for scum to skate if they manage to infiltrate the cell.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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So I see why this matrix makes it easy to overlook scum-hunting... lol
FMPOV, ZZZX, SS, and Dunhallym all have a good chance of being scum.
A re-read of ZZZX seems pretty light in terms of content posts. And
Seems forced.In post 318, ZZZX wrote:wait this is a nightless?
Sorry this was a bit light on the overall, but I think I want to start here today and don't have a lot of time
VOTE: ZZZX-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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It was more of the way you interacted with me and questioned me.In post 314, Tenshii wrote:Just kinda paranoid he shifted from a scumread to a townread on me after I townread him but other than that I feel okay on townreading him.
His posts have a decent trajectory of trying to figure out where scum is hiding. What is your read there?In post 326, Tenshii wrote:@Anyone, Why is Jaack your townread?
Is this a trick question?In post 339, Something_Smart wrote:@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?-
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It was after the back and forth and him changing his read on me based on actually reading and understanding my posts. If he were scum pushing a mis-lynch, I would think he would have been a little less flexible in his read and would have kept up his push.In post 377, Dunhallym wrote:@ Tenshii, Prohawk
Could you both explain which points in your interaction with the other is leading to you having a townread on him?-
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According to the matrix, she has a good chance of flipping scum. According to play, I don't think she will be flipping scum. So no, not voting there... whats your case there? Why not ZZZZX? Why do you have a town read there?In post 359, Something_Smart wrote:No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.-
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Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"In post 371, Jaack wrote:If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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This is a false statement.In post 372, Something_Smart wrote:We're not lynching ZZZX because he's probably town-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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In post 317, Jaack wrote:I am not scumreading ProHawk. Just doing some due diligence.
So I say again, you are wanting to lynch me because you think that Tenshii is the best lynch, but if he is the best lynch the only pair that you seem to feel is plausible is a ProHawk-Tenshii, so you want to lynch me because I have a higher probability of being scum based on "math". Even though that "math" led you to believe that Dunhallym is simply the best lynch...In post 345, Jaack wrote:As for Tenshii, I guess it probably makes more sense to lynch ProHawk if Tenshii seems like the best lynch simply because ProHawk is in more scumteams, but my primary interest in lynching them is because I think that they make solid sense as a pair.
In post 324, Jaack wrote:The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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I'm not leading you anywhere. I legitimately want to know where you are going to go when I am cleared because that is what will happen.In post 399, Jaack wrote:
Neither because, as I've said multiple times, I don't think Tenshii and Gamma is a likely pair at all.In post 396, ProHawk wrote:So when I flip town, are you going to lynch Tenshii next and claim the game is won? Or are you going to flip Gamma before Tenshii?
That being said, this leading question stuff is making me more confident in who's the scumteam-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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Uhmmm what?In post 397, Something_Smart wrote:Even if you disagree, his only likely partner is Dunhallym. It's the same reason we're not lynching Tenshii today. If you scumread ZZZX, vote Dunhallym.-
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ProHawk Jack of All Trades
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So here is where I am at...
Dunhallym - The most town by play. Active, encouraging activity, scum-hunting looks genuine, overall feels town. I'd literally nominate her for best scum performance if she does flip scum.
Tenshii - I have him in my town pile. I am generally a pretty easy person to mis-lynch, probably because of my abrasive nature, and I would think that scum-Tenshii would have capitalized on that when he could have, but didn't. His willingness to be open and change his perspective based on interactions in the thread come from town more so than scum IMO.
Gamma - Play doesn't really feel super town to me, has had some strange votes from my point of view, may be that I like him because he is town reading me, or just that he could only really be scum with Tenshii (who I don't see as scum) either-way not really seeing him flip scum.
SS - His posts have been decent, they seem to have a good amount of analysis and thinking. My problem is the conclusions are off. I also haven't done an in-depth read here just yet. Matrix pushes him over to the possible scum side for me.
Jaack - Initially had me pretty sure he was town based off of the scum-hunting he was doing. His strange as heck reasoning for lynching me based off of a false association made my read flip pretty much 180. It actually looks like his scum-hunting is more methodical than actually trying to figure out who scum is... agenda-like. I could lynch here. His reads on his probable partners are also convenient.
ZZZZX - Pretty sure he is scum, would like to get this scum-flip nailed down and move on from there. He seemed pretty excited starting the game with plans and such, excitement drowned out pretty linearly as time went on, and the started the day with an attempt at a town-slip. My vote is here.-
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This is coming from a guy whose reads completely avoid him voting for his partners.In post 412, Jaack wrote:In a game where bussing is bad, that's kinda what I'd expect from scum.-
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In post 417, Jaack wrote:Contrary to my memory, ProHawk was never scumreading Tenshii.
I'm just going to leave this here....In post 300, ProHawk wrote:
I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.In post 283, Dunhallym wrote:Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?
Jaack, your vote on me is bad. Your reasoning is bad. And its all based on an associative that you have NO CLUE about. Oh look, Tenshii reincarnate wants to lynch me. YOU'RE RIGHT! We totes decided to hard bus eachother because.... new guy!
VOTE: Jaack
Lying scum.-
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