Micro 660: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[qubixes]

Hi, going to read up later tonight. I already skimmed part of the game, so it shouldn't be taking too long. It looked like I got into the least interesting group, though that's perhaps due to my predecessor's inactivity.

@lane: why are you still voting my slot (which has a grand total of 1 "I'm catching up" post)?

[qubixes]

I read through the ISO's of my group (Lane+GL+DBW), and I'm pretty sure GL is scum (with the obvious caveat that all three of us might be town). He seems to be tiptoeing a bit too much, and his town and scum reads feel more like a salesman selling their wares.

I see that lane's vote (and I guess GL's "intent") is because of DBW posting in another thread while saying they were catching up. That makes some sense I guess.

I feel rather tired today, so I'm probably not going to be scouring the thread in detail today (or tomorrow). Is there a particular player/subject that someone feels strongly about and wants my opinion on?

[qubixes]

I read through the ISO's of my group (Lane+GL+DBW), and I'm pretty sure GL is scum (with the obvious caveat that all three of us might be town). He seems to be tiptoeing a bit too much, and his town and scum reads feel more like a salesman selling their wares.

I see that lane's vote (and I guess GL's "intent") is because of DBW posting in another thread while saying they were catching up. That makes some sense I guess.

I feel rather tired today, so I'm probably not going to be scouring the thread in detail today (or tomorrow). Is there a particular player/subject that someone feels strongly about and wants my opinion on?

Since youre tired (me too), just iso Howard.
Shouldnt take long.
Share your thoughts if your up to it.

Skimmed through his ISO, and it looks pretty town to me. He seems to be there to find scum, not friends. Seems like you two are having a fight? Will get back to this probably when I read up properly.

[qubixes]

Why did we even let the slot get replaced instead of just lynching

So much for a heartwarming welcome committee....

Apart from the approach being rather anti-town (unless you believe my slot is confirmed scum?), what is even the fun in lynching inactive people (TvS OR SvT)?

[qubixes]

I am at L-2 technically. It doesn't matter so much that someone else has to be voted to get me closer to lynch.

There is no reason that we can't case/argue against a person from another group, even if we can't vote them, so there

shouldn't

be that problem. Your reason for voting me is pretty lame ("I need some flips"). What are you going to learn when I flip town, and you didn't as much as have given me a chance? Looks like dunstrall was right that my fate was basically sealed before my entrance into the game (which is stupid and demotivating regardless of what you think of my alignment).

I'll get to this game tonight when I have some time, read trough the whole game carefully and make a write-up. If you're still defaulting to my lynch without a single reason beyond that my predecessor made a single post and was posting elsewhere, I give up.

[qubixes]

Ok, I caught up...

p1:

13 [Frank] reads like a reaction test, curious to see what he's going to do with it.
16 [Jin] pings me a bit
23 [Frank] It wasn't a test?

p2:

26 [GL] Can't put my finger on it, but it feels awkward the way it is formulated.
27 [GL] Good, someone is paying attention
40 [Dunn] Seeing no scumhunting so far from himself either.
42 [Jin] Could be because he seems to be a newer player, but this post is too buttery for me.

p3:
57 [lane] Mirrors my question marks.
62 [Arc] So it was a reaction test? Kind of weird to make a difference between VT and town claim, but ok.
66 [Jin] More diplomacy...
72 [lane] Seems eager to replace, then when I do replace DBW, no eagerness at all??

p4:
79 [How] Disagree with him on Arc, otherwise feels like a town post.
94 [Frank] This defence is weird/bad. Uses present tense in "I dont think", so he still thinks Howard wouldn't have voted? Tries to cast it as two completely things RVS vs non-RVS, when the "paranoia" that he attacked Howard on is equal in both cases. And ehm... Too lazy to actually analyse his reaction?

p5:
101 [Frank] Reads Howard as scum apparently based on some BS reaction test? Don't like the addition or "pro" either.
106 [Gamma] I do like gamma's pressure here.
110 [Jin] This does sound like town reasoning from a newer player.
122 [GL] This sounds like a filler question to me.
123 [GL] Why weak? I don't undertand that wording.
124 [GL] What is there to like about it?

p6:
127 [Dun] Someone else advocating the absentee.. *yawn*
129 [Jin] This feels like town thinking.
131 [How] Fully agree with this.
145 [Jin] I agree with dun that this switch is super weird.
148 [Jin] Ehm... Ok. Not sure what to make of it...
149 [Dun] Don't like the fact that he's trying to "prove" himself town by unvoting Arc.

p7:
152 [lane] Seeing the same thing as I did.

p8:
184 [Frank] Uhhhhh???? How do you know my slot is town?

p9:
209 [Jin] Don't agree with the reasoning on Howard=scum, but unless it's exactly Frank+Jin, and he wants to hard defend/chainsaw his buddy, I don't see a scum motivation in this.
212 [GL] Can't agree with GL here. It makes a lot of sense to me that Howard!town to scumread someone who reverses on a reply Howard!town clearly sees as BS. Also, scum!GL never reverses his read on anyone, unless he has an obvious reason?

p10:
273 [GL] This is probably the post that feels like a salesman to me.

Feels like people are more and more running in circles at the end, so not much to see there.

[qubixes]

Anyway, for me right now, taking one of each group for each Tier, I have the following list:

{me, Gamma, Arc}
{Lane, Howard, Jin}
{GL, Frank, Dunn}

About Frank vs Howard. Frank's reasoning sounds really bad to me, and I'm going with scum!bad for now, but in case he flips town I might have to reconsider Howard, because he makes it really easy for Howard to be on the "right" side of the argument.

About Jin/Dunn, I see little gamesolving on Dunn's part, more like spectating and commenting. On the other hand Jin's diplomatic stance so far does look somewhat like newer scum trying not to ruffle any feathers.

Right now, I'm most confident about GL/Frank as scum (though I'm not sure about the team itself). In particular I don't like his vote on me, because it seems rather opportunistic trying to consolidate the consensus that my slot should have been lynched already, and just when I point at him as a scumread of mine.

There is one thing that

really

bothers me about lane though. Why did you complain so much about DBW being inactive and then seemingly not care at all when I do replace in?

[qubixes]

@SAJ: You know you're putting

3!

people at L-1, not just Arc...

[qubixes]

Howard, why are you voting Frank over Gamma?

I think Gamma is voting Frank because then he can push the lynch onto you the next day. I do not think Frank is scum

I'm actually not sure what I would do if Frank flipped town. I'm with qubixes a bit but I kinda feel there's a very slight chance it is TvT and my group is the all-town group

You are getting it wrong. I'm not saying this is SvT. I am saying that if Frank flips town, I would need to re-evaluate Howard (and probably you and Lane as well), because a large part of his work which I read as town is based on his argument with Frank. It's not a hard argument to make as scum, because it is mainly based on Frank's banana play. Re-evaluate != Scum.

[qubixes]

@Dunnstral: Why is that you care so much about Wisdom, and don't care at all what happens to my group?

[qubixes]

Also 'if I were scum I would do x' arguments are dumb and usually come from scum

Hint: If I'm scum I just let arc get lynched

Oh, so you're usually scum then. Good to know!

@Jin: I think you're making a mistake. I prefer you unvote for obvious reasons, but also I'm convinced that Dunn is a much better vote than Arc.

I understand that Arc suggesting NL looks scummy on the surface, but I think of it this way: if she knows the rules, it sounds rather silly to suggest a NL, because so far it is obvious that at least some other people are also reading the rules and she is sure going to get called out on it. So, from that I conclude she is very unlikely to be realizing that she is suggesting something that helps mafia. Could she suggest it as mafia while unaware of the rules, maybe. I think it's just as likely though that she would think in that direction as town.

I think we should be lynching Frank+GL+Dunn today, with the most probable scum team GL+Dunn.

[qubixes]

@Arc: That is exactly what you're able to do as scum if you no-lynch... As mafia you would get to choose who dies of the three of you.

[qubixes]

What is the benefit of doing a no-lynch as town though? You get 1 extra NK analysis opportunity basically, but if you assume this is a plus, scum can randomize it and you don't get the benefit anymore. So it's only any good if scum are making a bad NK.

You have to be really very sure (95%+) that you are in the no scum group to even consider it, because it hurts a lot if you are wrong. I think Dunn can very well behave the way he did with the testing each other out. He tried to get town cred for it by saying he wouldn't do it as scum. That in itself is a pretty big red flag for me. Do you think scum!Dunn couldn't behave that way?

[qubixes]

@SAJ: You know you're putting

3!

people at L-1, not just Arc...

Thought I made it clear I wasn't hammering

@Dunnstral: Why is that you care so much about Wisdom, and don't care at all what happens to my group?

You're already getting lynched

I don't have a habit of trusting scum.

By the looks of it I'm about as likely lynched as Frank, so can you not dodge the question? (Or my accusation for that matter.)

[qubixes]

@Jin: It would also be great if you could wait for Lane and GL to see whether they might reconsider or not, before we go to the lynch...

[qubixes]

Why would I make a show of someone doing something they're supposed to do? I don't get recognition for eating vegetables or getting 8 hours of sleep or drinking enough water.

You seemed frustrated at not being able to interact with a player in your group, but when the opportunity arises you don't seem interested. I'm not saying you should be applauding me for doing my job. If you want to go the analogy route, it's like you scream "I'm so thirsty!", and when you receive a glass of water, you're not even interested in drinking it.

[qubixes]

Except that's not the reason I voted you, you're drawing an A->B connection that I didn't put there. I voted you to advance the game and because I didn't like your unexplained potshots at me. The fact that you take something else that I said ("I need flips") and tried to tie it to my vote without directly asking me about it looks disingenuous to me.

You're saying "I need some flips" in 316, then a naked vote in 317. Just because of the fact that you posted them in two separate posts I am not allowed to conclude that they are connected, when you don't voice any suspicions about me in the posts before that either? If you had that reason for voting me, why not just say it out loud and try to get me to interact on it, instead of apparently hiding it so you can call me scummy when I don't ask you about it?

I wanted to put out some content within the limited time I had available (which I indicated), realizing I might have to take some of it back, because I didn't have a good understanding yet of what was going on. The tip-toeing and salesman comments were my first impressions on reading your ISO, and I thought it would be beneficial putting it out, seeing what kind of reaction I would get. Hint: your reaction was pretty bad, voting me in apparent self-defense, when I wasn't even fully caught up.

[qubixes]

212 [GL] Can't agree with GL here. It makes a lot of sense to me that Howard!town to scumread someone who reverses on a reply Howard!town clearly sees as BS. Also, scum!GL never reverses his read on anyone, unless he has an obvious reason?

321 is a lot of useless commentary to look busy imo, but I'll address this point directly

The point isn't about the fact that I reversed my read, the point is Howard calls it scummy without explaining why it's scummy. town!GL or scum!GL can reverse a read. Reversing a read itself is not alignment indicative. Therefore it's scummy play to just say "GL reversed his read, so that's scummy" without actually putting the thought or the explanation into why it's

more likely

that I'm scum for reversing the read rather than town. Scum often do that because it's easier to state to the other players of a true fact (GL reversed a read) and let them infer why that's supposed to be scummy, rather than having to make the case explicitly themselves.

also, you didn't highlight any posts that you said look like tiptoeing. Why did you say I was tiptoeing earlier?

I'm not saying your reversal of your read is scummy in this post (even though I still question how you managed to to that in this particular case), or at least that's not the point I'm trying to make. What I am having the most trouble with is you calling Howard scummy there. To me it makes perfect sense for town!Howard to be suspicious of your move, and I think you should be able to see that as well if you're town. Why is it scummy that he didn't give reasons? In fact, if he was meticulously pointing out what was wrong, it might be

more

suspicious imo. What does he accomplish by FoS'ing you and not giving reasons? How does that help is scum goals? Make others infer? Maybe. But really at that stage in the game you were under no pressure, because of the absence of my slot. It's not going to make lane or my non-participating slot vote you. And long-term people would probably forget about it.. I'm not saying Howard is only doing this as town. I'm saying your reasons for calling Howard scum there are crap.

I would also like to point out that you're doing a very similar thing to what you are accusing me of: instead of asking him about his reasons, you immediately accuse him.

As to tip-toeing. Honestly, a pretty large part of your ISO is saying: "I like this, don't like that, this is weak". The only times when it felt you were actually showing any serious push behind something was when you were accused, in case of Howard, and me. If you want post numbers: 26, 121, 123, 124. I think you get the point.

Btw, it's rather unfair calling my catch up post "busy-work", because I'm just making notes and posting them publicly to get into the game (and allow others to interact on it, which didn't really happen except for you I guess..). I'm still trying to figure out the best way to get into a game by replacing in (second time), so if you have problems with it (or more constructive: suggestions), you can tell me post-game.

Might as well vote, since I don't think I'll change my choice.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[qubixes]

I thought I was voicing suspicions against you in my first post of that sequence:

Spoiler:

I read through the ISO's of my group (Lane+GL+DBW), and I'm pretty sure GL is scum (with the obvious caveat that all three of us might be town). He seems to be tiptoeing a bit too much, and his town and scum reads feel more like a salesman selling their wares.

can you highlight the specific posts that gave you the impression that I was tiptoeing

and why you say my reads "feel like a salesman"? That's a new one

If you're gonna say stuff that clearly doesn't hold up, I'm gonna call it out. What did you think this post was, if not suspicion?

You're only asking me to justify my reasons there, and even if there is an undercurrent of "I'm town, so you're wrong", wrong != scum unless you OMGUS literally everyone that attacks you.

I wanted to put out some content within the limited time I had available (which I indicated), realizing I might have to take some of it back, because I didn't have a good understanding yet of what was going on. The tip-toeing and salesman comments were my first impressions on reading your ISO, and I thought it would be beneficial putting it out, seeing what kind of reaction I would get. Hint: your reaction was pretty bad, voting me in apparent self-defense, when I wasn't even fully caught up.

I'm starting to get worried now that this may be a playstyle clash and you may be town, however, sentences like the last one just make me more confused and absolutely do not convey any kind of town alignment. You admit first that you "didn't have a good understanding" of what was going on, and when I call you out for exaggerating or throwing vague shade at me, you say my suspicion is "self-defense". When I flip green, how are you going to justify your push to other members of the town?

I think it was pretty clear from the thread that I wasn't completely caught up, so I couldn't have a thorough understanding. If it wasn't completely clear, then my bad. I have no problem with your questioning of my statements. I do have however a problem with the vote that follows, when I already have a vote on me, in combination with "I wanna see some flips". That tells me you're not really interested in figuring me out after all. You could have given me time to catch up, and give a proper justification of my "shade", and possibly voted after that if it was unsatisfactory, but you didn't.

I don't see how my attack is any different? How is any townie going to justify his push on another townie after the flip? I think my reasoning is solid, and if you were to flip town that would suck, but I fail to see how that would make me scum (apart from the statistical probability obviously).

[qubixes]

Honestly no idea what to think about the Gamma vs Dunn self-vote shenanigans. It's going to break my brain trying to solve that (WIFOM) puzzle...

[qubixes]

Wow.. Looks like Dunn was right after all... Ehm, good luck town?!

[qubixes]

For what it's worth, I could see lane's play being long term thinking who is an easier mislynch after GL/me dies. Of course I'm biased, but I think my play looks less scummy than GL's (also kind of evidenced by comments from others in my group). That in combination with his continued unwillingness to engage me, voting GL with a simple "looks town", just doesn't sit right with me. Anyway, it looks like I don't have to figure it out, so "yay" for me!

[qubixes]

No, not really. But it's L-2 at the moment, so you might want to vote so we can go to L-1 right now, so there's no scramble for lynch? Although it kind of works different in this game, it's maybe even more of a risk.

[qubixes]

Wow.. Looks like Dunn was right after all

Consider me buddied

Great! That's going to be so helpful!

For what it's worth, I could see lane's play being long term thinking who is an easier mislynch after GL/me dies.

Hey I used that logic on gamma.

But I don't think it applies to lane

To me it seems the other way around with gamma. Short term, frank looks like the easier lynch with the strange argument against Howard, so I would expect a long-term thinking scum!gamma to prefer a Howard lynch. Do you disagree? (I guess it is all kind of academic if we're both getting lynched...)

Why do you think it doesn't apply to Lane? Btw, I read most of his ISO as rather clean, going in direction I would have (probably) tried to explore if I were in the game at that point. Maybe the quick pivot on my/GL's slot means he's more likely than not town. Anyway, I'd still lynch GL over Lane for sure at this point.

[qubixes]

GG! Thanks for modding.

@GL: Thanks! I was almost sure lane was going to see the light and lynch you, but alas!

Dunnstral definitely threw me a bit off with his apathy towards his own lynch (or at least it seemed so to me).

Even though it was kind of short, it was a lot more fun than the first time I replaced into a game . Can I get an achievement for being the only one who voted correctly during the D1 lynch?

[qubixes]

I played with DBW in a newbie game (which happened during this game), in which he didn't flake and turned out to be scum (lynched D1). So I guess he enjoys playing scum more (or feels more obliged to his partner to post).

Any idea how reliable the tell is?