Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Obaby he ragequit. Just caught up to the thread but only did a once-through read. Going to look at that handy matrix now.

Really not getting why Jin kept saying he never TRed Jaack. I know his defensiveness was a playstyle thing though since I have his role pm. For the record it definitely does not look like dunhallym is trying to goad Jin or anything like that. I still have a few hours before work so I'm gonna dig into this thread after I eat a bit.

Feel free to ask me shit tho, I have a short day at work and will be back after

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I couldn't resist the urge to do some math since nobody else has done it yet so I'm going to drop a couple of numbers so that the info is out there for town jic I die.

The chance that your scumteam unpicks were duplicated at least twice by a combination of other players' scumteam unpicks is 100/441 or 22.68%. (Something_Smart/ArcAngel slot)
Note that this includes the chance that 2 or more different players from yourself duplicate the same one of your scumteam unpicks twice, so the chance that the SS/AA slot is being truthful is slightly, but not much less than 22.68%, assuming Dunhallym and Gamma are both being truthful about their unpicks. We don't know yet if they were being truthful as neither of them have flipped, but this will be valuable later on if one does.

The chance that exactly one of your scumteam unpicks is duplicated at least once is 10/21 or 47.62%. (Gamma/Dunhallym) This is the chance that each of Gamma and Dunhallym are telling the truth individually (not the chance they're both being truthful together. That would be 22.68%).

I'm really tempted to vote SS based on this alone but since Dunhallym claimed her picks after SS it makes me hesitate until I'm more sure of Dun. I really did not like her attitude early on towards claiming because it is not pro-town, though she says she is not good with probabilities. If that is the case, she would not have known that filling

The Matrix™

is the best way to start the game for town. Now I'll do real reading with note-taking, I got caught up in the math before.

As of now I'm set on voting between SS and Dunhallym today based on the numbers, just have to decide which of them is telling the truth. There's one scum there, and probably not 2 unless Dun didn't realize that making both of SS's unpicks get duplicated would look suspicious. Again, this is possible if she was being real about not being good with probabilities.

pedit: No worries on the slot, glad I could join in this game because Mathia is my favorite Mafia variant

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Initial thoughts though are that Jaack and ProHawk are town for posts 36 and 25. Prohawk stronger lean because he went for it first.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I couldn't resist the urge to do some math since nobody else has done it yet so I'm going to drop a couple of numbers so that the info is out there for town jic I die.

The chance that your scumteam unpicks were duplicated at least twice by a combination of other players' scumteam unpicks is 100/441 or 22.68%. (Something_Smart/ArcAngel slot)
Note that this includes the chance that 2 or more different players from yourself duplicate the same one of your scumteam unpicks twice, so the chance that the SS/AA slot is being truthful is slightly, but not much less than 22.68%,

assuming Dunhallym and Gamma are both being truthful about their unpicks

. We don't know yet if they were being truthful as neither of them have flipped, but this will be valuable later on if one does.

The chance that exactly one of your scumteam unpicks is duplicated at least once is 10/21 or 47.62%. (Gamma/Dunhallym)

This is the chance that each of Gamma and Dunhallym are telling the truth individually

(not the chance they're both being truthful together. That would be 22.68%).

I'm really tempted to vote SS based on this alone but since

Dunhallym claimed her picks after SS

it makes me hesitate until I'm more sure of Dun. I really did not like her attitude early on towards claiming because it is not pro-town, though she says she is not good with probabilities. If that is the case, she would not have known that filling

The Matrix™

is the best way to start the game for town. Now I'll do real reading with note-taking, I got caught up in the math before.

As of now I'm set on voting between SS and Dunhallym today based on the numbers,

just have to decide which of them is telling the truth

. There's one scum there, and probably not 2 unless Dun didn't realize that making both of SS's unpicks get duplicated would look suspicious. Again, this is possible if she was being real about not being good with probabilities.

pedit: No worries on the slot, glad I could join in this game because Mathia is my favorite Mafia variant

This isn't Mathia though, and those probabilities aren't accurate because it fails to take into account the fact that my slot has claimed those picks and (from an objective perspective) there's a good chance that I'm town and therefore telling the truth.

I've been trying to ignore the picks for the most part and just scumhunt; without flips, the picks can't really give us anything definitive.

Just want to clear this up nobody gets tripped up later but the bolded in my quote is where I take into account the chances that people are lying about their picks.

Sure there's a good chance you're town (5/7), but Dunhallym and Gamma are just as likely to be town based on probability alone. No one of you 3 is more or less likely to be lying by merit of being town or not, it's the content of your claims that make you objectively more or less likely to be lying about them. Since Gamma claimed the first of you 3 it is not possible that he specifically made his claims with the intention of giving town a useless (duplicate) claim. When SS claimed, he claimed one duplicate. When Dunhallym claimed, she also claimed one duplicate, but it just so happened that her claim is what makes it more likely that SS claim was fake in the first place. scum!Dunhallym would know this which is why I will not vote you based on probability

alone

, rather, I will decide which of the 2 of you is the scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel that Jinslot is the best informational lynch. The slot has a relatively high chance of flipping scum, and if it's town, Tenshii is very likely town.

What kind of information do you think it gives? I didn't really get that impression from my reading so far. I do see the argument for there being a relatively high chance of flipping scum though I think, but I'd like to hear your reasons for saying that anyways. Just in case they're different from what I saw, if you don't mind sharing.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Did I miss a Tenshii/Jin interaction somewhere? This only clears Tenshii for you though, assuming you're town. Nobody's said this yet which surprises me, but the problem with setting someone up to be cleared like that this early is that it almost guarantees they'll be NKed, and then we'll be back in a state like we are now. If you're not scum, Gamma, and scum sees that Jaack is being TRed by you, then scum knows that you will clear Tenshii in your mind. Scum would just kill Tenshii for that because they don't want us knowing who is town. Better to force them to make the kill that clears someone else than clear someone with a lynch only to get the cleared person killed. Scum does have the no-kill option on N1 though, but no later nights (N1 comes after D2 in this setup, just a reminder)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If it still doesn't make sense: imagine that I gave 100 people each a 100-sided die and told them all to roll it. Then I asked them all what they got, except that one person was secretly told to lie. Suppose now that exactly one person claims to have rolled a 100. According to your logic, the chance of them actually rolling a 100 is only 1/100, so therefore there's a 99% chance that they're lying. Which is obviously not true.

Let me FTFY:
Without any other information from the above example, the chance of them actually having rolled the 100 they claim to have rolled is 99%, because 99 out of the 100 people that rolled the 100-sided die will tell the truth about what they rolled. Stop trying to wave this away, your location is making me think you're giving people bad math on purpose but I want to read Dunhallym first because they have more motivation to make their claim fake in the way that it was claimed

because

it makes someone else look more suspicious than them. Like I'm not sure if you're not following me or if you're intentionally twisting what I'm saying so please don't anymore. I'll show my process if you don't believe the numbers I arrived at.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum knows who will be conftown though and can NK them is what I'm trying to say. I guess you would get to conf him for the D2 phase which would be good but after that he's probably NK targeted

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Tenshii I am curious about your other reads on players, you seem to word your reads well and i like the outlook you have when approaching reads.

It would be nice to see more activity from people, i think after the chart was made the conversations for most fizzled out. What are people thinking concerning the three players that Jaack said would be a good starting place.

@ProHawk That wasnt emotional or fear-mongering, that post was me stating that i WOULD flip town and it would be a wasted day phase. Its facts, nothing emotional about it. If Jaack flipped scum later, i would be upset. Wouldnt any town be upset at the fact that they had a scumread on scum and they got lynched instead of the scum?

I was expecting to see more of an aggressive push from dunhallym onto SS if their claim was fake and intended to cast suspicion on him. Dunhallym still looks town after a reread so if she was trying to frame him it's working for me so far. Optimal play is to lynch 2 of the 3 of us (me, SS, Dunhallym). My PoE leads me to this conclusion

VOTE: SomethingSmart

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If he's town I'm tomorrow's lynch, if I'm lynched today I will flip town and he's tomorrow's lynch. Either is fine

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Really not getting why Jin kept saying he never TRed Jaack.

Isn't this who you replaced? Why is the first thing you comment on?

It was the first thing that stood out to me the most when I woke up this morning. I mean he must deny it like 3 times and all I could think after knowing his alignment is literally "wtf are you doing" I had just speedread the thread in bed on my phone first thing, not done any analysis yet. Hadn't even reread anything yet

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Assuming whatever I did is the amished tell but what is it?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh ok that's fair I guess. It's clearly NAI when you think about it though. I would complain about Jin if he were town because town should just swallow their pride and own up to the fact that they OMGUS voted the guy. I'd complain about Jin if he were scum because he made himself look so bad by lying about never TRing Jaack when at least one (I think multiple) person(s) were quoting the post in which he said he TRed Jaack. Jin and I are completely different people though, it's actually funny to see how he plays there knowing his alignment.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If it still doesn't make sense: imagine that I gave 100 people each a 100-sided die and told them all to roll it. Then I asked them all what they got, except that one person was secretly told to lie. Suppose now that exactly one person claims to have rolled a 100. According to your logic, the chance of them actually rolling a 100 is only 1/100, so therefore there's a 99% chance that they're lying. Which is obviously not true.

Let me FTFY:
Without any other information from the above example, the chance of them actually having rolled the 100 they claim to have rolled is 99%, because 99 out of the 100 people that rolled the 100-sided die will tell the truth about what they rolled. Stop trying to wave this away, your location is making me think you're giving people bad math on purpose but I want to read Dunhallym first because they have more motivation to make their claim fake in the way that it was claimed

because

it makes someone else look more suspicious than them. Like I'm not sure if you're not following me or if you're intentionally twisting what I'm saying so please don't anymore. I'll show my process if you don't believe the numbers I arrived at.

I'm not waving it away; what you said is my point. The probability that my slot actually chose the two picks it claimed is 3 in 4, because 6 out of the 8 people will tell the truth about what they chose.

I'm not intentionally twisting anything; probability can be confusing. You should look up the Monty Hall problem if you don't know it already-- it's a good example of how something that seems intuitive can be totally wrong.

So this seems like a reasonable explanation, that the chance that anyone is truthful is 3/4 (or 5/7 if you're a town and are thinking of a different player) but if we follow that logic, then everyone is likely to be telling the truth, and that's not taking advantage of the information we have as town. Usually only scum get information to start the game but we've been given tools to help us find the scum from the get-go and we shouldn't just ignore them. The probability I calculated is simply calculating the chance that both of any player's unpicks were duplicated by a combination of other players. If we didn't know anyone else's unpicks yet, then the chance your unpicks were truthfully claimed would be 5/7 from town pov. However, we do have more information that we can use to calculate a different probability.

We aren't calculating if you're telling the truth, but rather how likely it is that your claims were duplicated

. Like I said in my original post, assuming that the players who overlap your unpicks are being truthful, the chance of your picks being duplicated in the way they were is relatively low (if they're truly your unpicks). This leads me to believe that someone who has overlapping picks is lying, because it is unlikely for all 3 of you to be telling the truth.

I super messed up my formatting so I'll just respond to your other things below:
Something_Smart: We're not playing this game based on probabilities.
-I'm definitely playing this game with probabilities in mind, but not entirely based on them.

The Matrix™

is the one informational PR that town get this game and I'm not going to ignore it. I think trying to get people to ignore

The Matrix™

is anti-town here, and maybe scum play in other cases.

Something_Smart: So why aren't you voting yourself?
-When I say it's optimal play I am addressing my fellow townspeople who do not have the same luxury as I do to know that I am town. Obviously I won't vote myself, just as you and Dunhallym won't vote yourselves, because it is against all of our win conditions to vote ourselves at this point, regardless of what our win conditions are. I will bear no ill will against town that lynch me today and you tomorrow, and vice versa, assuming that those town do not see Dunhallym as more scummy than the one of us who remains in D2.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

it is unlikely for all 3 of you to be telling the truth.

Why?

If the odds of one person's picks overlapping with two other players' picks is 22.68%

, then the odds that one out of eight players would have both their picks overlap is 87.23%.

The probability that

any

player would get

both

of their unpicks overlapped 22.68%. If you're going to draw a conclusion based on the rest of the 100% that is available that statement would read as follows:

If: The odds of any one player getting both their unpicks overlapped is 22.68%
Then: The odds that 0 or 2-8 players get both their unpicks overlapped is 87.23%
(0 players getting both their unpicks overlapped encompasses the vast majority of that 87.23%)

What you did above was say "If the probability of A is 22.68%, then the probability of A is 87.23%" I'm not sure if you don't grasp exactly what probability I calculated because I haven't shown the math yet but I'll show it if anyone's interested. All of these percentages are assuming that the involved parties are being truthful. In a world where all 3 of you are telling the truth, your picks only get overlapped 22.68% of the time. This is not a likely outcome, so I will assume that we are in a world where not all 3 of you are telling the truth about your unpicks, a world where at least one of you is scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not trying to say it's SS slot that lied about the unpicks, I'm saying that because his picks got overlapped, it is unlikely that all 3 of Gamma, SS, and Dunhallym told the truth when they claimed. When I move into that frame of reference for my investigation it means it is likely that at least one of you is lying. Town should not lie about their picks, which means that it is likely that at least one of you is scum. From here I look at each person's claims and wonder who could possibly have scum motivation behind their picks.

-Gamma revealing 2 fresh unpicks is not likely to be scum motivated. He was not forced to out his claim by popcorning (which is what should have happened, unfortunately most people jumped the gun), rather, he volunteered to give the town useful information. The only scum motivation here is to give yourself towncred by volunteering 2 fresh unpicks.
-SS revealing one duplicate pick and one fresh pick is possibly scum motivated because it directly withholds information from the town. This is more likely to be a scum motivated claim because it keeps town in the dark.
-Dunhallym revealing one duplicate pick and one fresh pick has the same possible scum motivation as SS's, in addition to the following, separate possible scum motivation: Making both of SS's claims become duplicates has the chance of putting more suspicion on someone scum!Dunhallym knows to be town.

-If Gamma is scum, he gains the least if his claims were false
-If SS or Dunhallym are scum, they stand to gain a bit from faking their claims.
-If Dunhallym is scum, she has a lot to gain by faking her claim.

This is why I expected to see more of a push from Dunhallym onto AA/SS slot earlier, but I didn't see it. I'll reread to see if anyone pushes AA/SS a bit too much and then check if those people are possible scumpartners with Dunhallym.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'd like you to give your opinion on people independantly of any probability they have of being scum

This won't be possible now that I've done the math and drawn my conclusion because of confirmation bias or whatever but I'll try, sure, it's only 10 pages and a lot of it is filler from my math and the charts. My brain works better when I think about situations logically rather than try to read the intentions people have.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright I reread and took my notes. AA slot was definitely just confused about the setup I think probably because of words like "unpick" which may not make sense to someone who speaks English as a second language. The only reason anyone should be voting them at this point is the probability business that I was on about along with the Jaack plan of lynching the 3 of us to eliminate almost every scum team.

What I said about Prohawk when I first came in is wrong in retrospect. If we were popcorning it would make a lot of sense for scum to start the chain and immediately call to their partner. They could both claim for free without having to worry about looking scummy for duping anything. I think the way PH attacked Jin up until 172 was very unfair and if you look at the way Jin was talking up to that point you'll see that he did admit that he voted purely in reaction to Jaack's vote. I think PH doesn't have any kind of valid reason to vote Jin up until they present their 143, which was contrived. Still nothing solid here and Jin is showing signs of being ready to look for scum, he is just too focused on defending himself under the pressure PH is exerting.
If anyone were to pick up on ProHawk's 146 and get town rallied behind the idea it would be a lot of towncred to cash in when Dunhallym flipped scum, if they are partnered as I suspect. This isn't even the first time they brought it up (121). 120 looks like it could be distancing between them. This is more of a me thing, but the way Dunhallym says "to be fair" in 163 looks scummy to me. It looks like a justification for why AA has 2 doubled unpicks but in actuality it could be a justification as for why Dunhallym's unpick was a duplicate.

I'm more suspicious of ProHawk than Dunhallym, for the record, but it does not make sense to me to lynch outside of [Something_Smart, Dunhallym] today and it should not make sense to town to lynch outside of [ssbm_Kyouko, Something_Smart, Dunhallym] today.

VOTE: Dunhallym

I think Tenshii was the only player to recognize that Jin was starting to calm down and he looked like he was trying to stop Jin a bit with 127/128. Can't eliminate the possibility that this is a scumteam trying to distance from each other and keep Jin in the spotlight but I do not think this is a likely scenario. Tenshii is likely town.
I maintain that Jaack is town from earlier.

This is all I'll out for now, I have to sleep for work. I can maybe do a better organized quotewall later if these links are too hard/disorganized to follow.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the way PH attacked Jin up until 172 was very unfair and if you look at the way Jin was talking up to that point you'll see that he did admit that he voted purely in reaction to Jaack's vote.

What part of my vote was unfair? He calls someone scum for being defensive or weird and then does the same thing. Do tell how my case is "contrived". What "signs" of scumhunting was Jin showing?

I said the way you attacked, not your vote, was the unfair part. As for the defensive/weird post in question, if you compare Jaack's post to Jin's they're definitely both defensive but in different ways. Jaack is defending why he chose to vote Jin. It looks "weird" to Jin I think because he's providing a lot of justification for a vote that Jin probably thinks he doesn't deserve just because he's been placed into the pool of the 3 most optimal lynches in the game. Jin gets defensive in the sense of the word that you would normally think of in his post. It's a subtle difference but if you reread, it's there. I think what Jaack was trying to do was give Jin a lot to reply to because like Jaack said, Jin was a starting point and he would have wanted Jin to start contributing to the discussion so he could either rule Jin out or decide to make a push on him.

Spoiler: Jaack and Jin's Defensive Posts

You want discussion? Okay. Who or what do you want to talk about?

I think I'm going to start here:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

@Dunhallym - I'm not really interested in getting into a more theory oriented discussion at this point (I agree that there are a lot of players not doing much) but I will respond to a few things.

First, I did not forget about how each of us knows we're clear. It's just not a fact that's particularly useful to discussion, particularly at this point, where no one's knowledge of their townness clears anyone else. Like I know personally that there is at least one scum among {Tenshii, Dunhallym, ArcAngel, Jin} but that's too vague to be useful even to me, let alone the other players.

And secondly, I am not fully committed to any plan beyond D1. There's no way to force a win with our allotted amount mislynches yet, but I do think that focusing our efforts on the most likely scum players is a productive use of time D1. D1 scum lynch rates are not significantly different from random selection and limiting the pool to those most likely to be scum based on game mechanics seems like a good idea to me.

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Jaack

These are the posts I felt were unfair in the way they pushed Jin:

Spoiler:

There are a few posts that I don't like about Jin.

need Jaack to be in all my games from now on.

^This after Jaack puts him in a pool of three lynch candidates.

You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Jaack

^If that's not a defensive post, I'm not sure what is... and apparently Jaack is scum for being defensive?

I dont agree with his vote being placed on me because some chart tells him to. Find reasons to vote me or someone else, dont vote me because a chart says that i have a large amount of possible scumteam combinations left.

Classic "Caught for the Wrong Reasons" Post. Aaaand then AtE.

VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Tenshii already addressed the second post you didn't like about Jin and the resolution you 2 came to seemed fine. For anyone not following that, Tenshii raised the point that getting upset over a statistic-based vote is NAI because you'd be upset as town or scum, and also said there was no AtE there. It was just misleading at the time about AtE though because it was cleared up later that PH was talking about when Jin said "he would be upset if Jaack flips scum" or something like that. Key word being upset.

The below posts are the ones that really stand out as unfair to me. The tone and content of the posts serve to make Jin look worse in the eyes of everyone else without raising any more good points on Jin.

If you think i am scum then vote me and when i am lynched ill flip town or you could back off of me and look at other possible scum.

That's the thing.... who are other possible scum Jin?

Wouldnt any town be upset at the fact that they had a scumread on scum and they got lynched instead of the scum?

This is precisely why you only would have to re-iterate this point as scum and not town, to CONVINCE people you are town.

The way "convince" is emphasized and the way PH says that what Jin is saying is something that would only be said is just an unfair claim. To all people reading, would you never have the thought that Jin has as town? I think the answer is no for most players. Not everyone would post that, but most people would at least think about it.

Jin, are you really telling me you have NO scum-reads?

This is sort of a loaded question. The only player behaving scummy to this point is PH, and Jin is under fire for voting someone who suspected him in the first place. He would be scared to admit that PH is his scum read in this situation.

I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

When pressed by Tenshii for more legitimate reasons for pushing Jin, ProHawk's initial response is to be vague about why he's pushing Jin. This makes me think he is using these aggressive pushes to try to get Jin to say something that will become the reason for players to push him, which Jin eventually does in 172.

This is the post I was referring to when I said contrived. The reason you give for pushing Jin does not feel genuine here.

WRT Jin and Jaack, Jaack puts Jin into a possible scum-pool, then Jin compliments Jaack. Brown-nosing, sucking up, buddying, whatever you want to call it. Have you never seen scum do this?

Tenshii raised another good point here, essentially replying "Have you never seen town do this?" (Not double checking his exact verbiage here, correct me if I'm remembering wrong).

Here are the signs that were present that Jin was preparing to scumhunt:

Spoiler:

@ProHawk First of all i never said i dont have scumreads, its just too early to have well defined scum reads. Also my comment about wanting Jaack in all my games was due to the fact that he made a chart and updated it regularly. That is a good thing to do in this setup and i liked that he was staying on top of getting information. I would have said that about anyone that did the chart and was engaging people, it wasnt about buddying. If i was buddying him i wouldnt have turned around and fought against him.

I did read Jaack as a scum lean for his vote on me and his reasoning for it but since he others have explained that it may have been a mixup i backed off so i wouldnt be focused on just him and could look at others.

Town Lean: ZZZX, Tenshii
Null: ArcAngel9, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym
Scum Lean: ProHawk, Jaack

For my scum lean it is for Jaacks attention towards myself and a feeling about the way ProHawk went after me for being defensive towards Jaack, like he took it personal about the things i said. Both reads are easily changed since their really isnt anything to base my reads off except RVS, Chart Phase, and my perspective per my role PM.

Fine, my vote against Jaack was 100% a reaction to his vote against me. I dont agree with his vote being placed on me because some chart tells him to. Find reasons to vote me or someone else, dont vote me because a chart says that i have a large amount of possible scumteam combinations left. Say everyone went with your chart and voted me, now you have a mislynch when i flip town, a wasted day phase, and one less town member which puts you closer to losing. I will unvote Jaack but i swear if he turns out to be scum, i will be upset at you all.

UNVOTE:

See it however you want to see it ProHawk, i was appealing to logic and not emotion with that post. You dont just look at a sheet and aya someone is capable of being scum, you look at their reasonings, their posts, and their reactions and you build a case on them. I could easily go "Look at Arc, she has 5 possible scum combos available" but that doesnt prove she is scum. You all have your opinions no matter what i do. All i can say is i assessed what i was doing, which was reacting based on a vote on me, and i backed off before it blew up. If you think i am scum then vote me and when i am lynched ill flip town or you could back off of me and look at other possible scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay ssbm I'm finally starting to get what you're saying. I still think you're putting way too much stock in the probabilities, especially given that the benefit scum get from repeating picks is fairly small.
However, you arguing to lynch in a small pool that includes you would be a risky strategy as scum.

And ZZZX I played in Maths which you modded but I don't think I've ever played with you.

Just want to clarify that I agree with Jaack's pool of optimal lynches from 78: [Dunhallym, Something_Smart, ssbm_Kyouko] because we have the most possible scumteams which means that us dying eliminates the most possible scumteams.
However the pool I came up with of [Gamma, Something_Smart, Dunhallym] is because there is that 77.32% chance that one of you 3 has false picks.
Two players conveniently overlap both pools. Gamma has the least motivation to lie when he did of my pool as I concluded in my 249. Dunhallym has a lot to gain from claiming in the way she did if she's scum, and looks to be teamtelling with PH, who I have a non-mathematical reason to SR. This all points me to Dunhallym for today. I also think Tenshii is town so far so if Dunhallym dies and flips town I would be able to softly clear Gamma by extension for the day, leaving just Something_Smart as the player who lied, if any of you 3 did, and the chance of that being the case is 77.32%. If both of you are town I can still be lynched D3 and we are still following Jaack's plan.

I think this makes a lot of sense if we follow the guidance of

The Matrix™

[ssbm_Kyouko]

To clarify how I softly clear Gamma above; he has only 2 possible scumpartners: Tenshii and Dunhallym

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you cite Jaack correctly, he never said that we should lynch only from us 3, but that on day 1 he would select from this pool. If the lynchee flips scum then it's obvious, but even if the lynchee is town there will be something to be drawn from the lynch.

I think you're right about this so it's my plan then. if the 3 of us die, town will be left with the most raw data to use in lategame. I don't think we make it to lategame if we're all town but since each of us has a 1/4 chance of being scum it's only a 1/64 chance that none of us are scum. Lynching us 3 is a 63/64 shot at D4 being 3 player LyLo with a lot of data available on the chart for the last 2 town to use.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

wait thats wrong disregard the 1/64 and 3/64 lmao I'm rushed before i leave for work

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you cite Jaack correctly, he never said that we should lynch only from us 3, but that on day 1 he would select from this pool. If the lynchee flips scum then it's obvious, but even if the lynchee is town there will be something to be drawn from the lynch.

I think you're right about this so it's my plan then. if the 3 of us die, town will be left with the most raw data to use in lategame. I don't think we make it to lategame if we're all town but since each of us has a 1/4 chance of being scum it's only a

9/64

chance that none of us are scum. Lynching us 3

with prejudice

is a

55/64

shot at D4 being

at worst

3 player LyLo with a lot of data available on the chart for the last 2 town to use.

Fixed probabilities and clarified wording in bold

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually I should redo those probabilities on the chances that each of us 3 are scum now that we have scum team combinations available. Hold off on using that 55/64 for now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just realized something really important for the math that actually further increases the chances there is at least one scum in me, SSmart, and Dun, especially from each of our own points of view, assuming we're town. We're each a part of 5 of the possible 15 scum teams. Since we can clear scum teams that we ourselves are involved in from our own town!pov, we are all in the position to vote for one of the other 2 and have a 40% chance of hitting scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The intention of my defense of Jin is to demonstrate that I scumread ProHawk for the way he was pushing Jin. My impression of AA slot is that they were confused by a language barrier, so I'm not seeing the same summoners in her posts that others were. I think Jaack you should reread my post more closely before you assume that I was saying that your 92 and Jin's 93 were equally defensive, or even defensive in the same sense of the word. I was referring to the way you justified voting Jin instead of AA. I don't think what you did was AI, just a play style difference between us. If I was town in your slot I wouldn't tell Jin why I was voting him so early in the game. There's no need to justify votes at that stage imo. Like I said, just a play style difference though. Just on break at work but I'll get back to you about the rest in a bit

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scumminess, not summoners lol

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^This is right. Missed that when I was taking my notes, so when I went to get a multiquote list from my notes and post my interpretations it was in the wrong context. Can disregard that wrt the way PH pushed Jin

[ssbm_Kyouko]

All in all, I'll freely admit that I'd probably scumread any hard defense that someone would give to their predecessor, since I think it's more likely to come from scum than town, but this defense is notably scummy since it kind of fails to defend the stuff people (or at least I) was scumreading Jin for in the first place. Which is to say his deflections and lack of pro-activity.

Wait, you're thinking my defense is more scummy because I'm

not

defending scummy play? I think I've tried to explain why I think he was deflecting and not being proactive in my wallpost about PH, but I wouldn't condone the way Jin played.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think I see where that's going Dun and you sparked a crazy idea in my head, so hear me out. I know I'm town and non-matrix reads are starting to tell me that Dun/SSmart are town. They're picking up on things I was missing because I was so focused on what the probabilities of

The Matrix™

were telling me. They seem to agree on Tenshii (see Dun's and maybe he was whiteknighting my slot in the PH push.

Dunhallym, SSmart

:Consider the following scenario. The 3 of us are town. One of us (me ) will be confirmed town to the others via a death flip. The remaining 2 will have to trust that the other is town for this to work out. Each of you is now in the position to read

The Matrix™

in the way Jaack describes in his early analysis, and can arrive at only 3 possible scumteams: Jaack/ZZZX, ProHawk/Tenshii, and Gamma/Tenshii. Let's assume Jaack is town too, because he is. This leaves PH/Tenshii and Gamma/Tenshii. This confirms Tenshii as scum.

I feel as though my slot is more useful to town dead than alive at this point for the above reason. I'm going to put together another wallpost tomorrow analyzing the interactions between PH/Gamma/Tenshii and self-vote in that post. It will come within 24 hours of now, please don't hammer me before then if you're town. Any later than 24 hours from now please vote me if you're town

ProHawk, Gamma - Tell us what you think of the plausibility of the other being scum with Tenshii please. Reads on Tenshii from each of you would also be appreciated. I'm leaning towards Gamma/Tenshii being more likely than ProHawk/Tenshii here. You should each also look at the way Tenshii interacts with the other and see if it looks like they could be together. This should be the focus of D2 discussion imo.

VOTE: Tenshii
I wouldn't mind being saved by a flashwagon though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This should be the focus of D2 discussion imo,

followed by a Tenshii lynch.

EBWOP: see bolded

Discuss who is more likely to be scum with him because my flip should confirm his as scum to Dunhallym and SSmart so the D3 lynch can be accurate. I want a D3 victory off this play but if you guys are down to gamble on the flashwagon it can be a flawless win

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You grouped my post and jin's post together calling them both defensive. Why would I assume that you aren't equating them in some way.

And if it's just playstyle differences, then why bring it up in the first place?

I don't know any other way to explain why I was not

equating

your posts other than to leave a quote of my original post because I'm not sure if you ever went back to reread it. Here it is, with the important bits I think you might have glazed over after seeing that I said "they're definitely both defensive" bolded for clarity.

As for the defensive/weird post in question, if you compare Jaack's post to Jin's they're definitely both defensive

but in different ways. Jaack is defending why he chose to vote Jin

. It looks "weird" to Jin I think because he's providing a lot of justification for a vote that Jin probably thinks he doesn't deserve just because he's been placed into the pool of the 3 most optimal lynches in the game.

Jin gets defensive in the sense of the word that you would normally think of in his post. It's a subtle difference but if you reread, it's there.

I was bringing it up because you misinterpreted what I thought was defensive about your post. I wasn't talking about the part of your post where you were addressing Dunhallym. I was talking about this:

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

Gotta go to work, Tenshii/PH/Gamma stuff coming afterwards

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright.

284 was a lie, I don't think Tenshii is scum really, was just trying to bait out a scummy reaction from SSmart/Dunhallym because from my pov there is only a 16% chance that both of them are town, and they're also optimal lynches with me. I knew I was pretty dead already. I also wanted to see who would go for the Tenshii wagon and how they would justify it. Leaning towards SSmart being more likely to be scum from the reactions.

Well, most of 284 was a lie I guess. Still self-vote and hammering in this case, because no lynch is worse than my lynch for town.
VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gl town, don't forget about the numbers.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That scumbag punked me in the dead thread, I thought SSmart was scum all along, gdi

[ssbm_Kyouko]

O well

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Something_Smart was lynched, he was

Mafia Goon

.

Congratulations to the town

Mod PT
Scum PT
Dead PT

Lol, I got played, sorry Smart and the rest.

@BV - No need to continue the charade with the win. That was cheap.

Wait so town actually won? I marked this game as a loss in my notes