Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[ProHawk]

This game setup seems pretty straight forward. Being able to lynch based off of probabilities is best and with a complete matrix of choices makes our odds of hitting scum that much better, not to mention clearing town when we nail scum in a pair. ZZZX, your method seems too convoluted when it doesn't need to be so. Lying doesn't seem to benefit scum from what I can tell, after all the only thing the matrix offers is probability and not absolutes, so there is that...

Scum Team can't be:

ZZZZX and Secret Agent Jin
OR
ArcAngel9 and Tenshii

I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't want the game to be "solved"...

VOTE: Dunhallym

This IS scum-hunting darling! Oh and if I am starting the popcorn. You are next! It's too bad I didn't get you in my picks, however someone else may have.

[ProHawk]

Dunhal raises a good point

What good point is that?

[ProHawk]

VOTE: Creature

VOTE: ZZZX

I am town 1-shot double voter. Fortunately, I already found the scumteam. Also I think we should scumhunt first, then reveal unpicks later on.

This is cute... I am actually kind of curious to see your picks.

[ProHawk]

Ok, what are you doing to scum-hunt? I counter with it produces the drive to scum-hunt. You have been at most speculating.

[ProHawk]

Why?

[ProHawk]

Its better to have it now so that we have time to construct the matrix and evaluate it for most likely to be scum. It's another piece of the puzzle that will help back scum into a corner. The later we get it out, the less time we have to use it. What exactly are you leaving scum in the dark about? Tell me how you plan on catching scum by doing.... what exactly?

[ProHawk]

VOTE: Gamma

Sheeep

[ProHawk]

Gamma, who else is scum?

[ProHawk]

Well, if my pick was scum, it auto confirms the other partner as town... im not sure where you are getting the "my picks can't be scum?" bit

[ProHawk]

Sorry guys been busy getting ready for festivities! Not caught up yet but should post tonight hopefully

[ProHawk]

**Takes Finger Out of Nose** OH! Right....

So here is where I am at. I kinda like Jaacks plan, and I am getting town feels from him so I think a debate between {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel} is great. They are all three the most probable to be scum from what I understand in the chart, although not necessarily guaranteed to be scum. I am no statistician, but I think the odds are really pretty low that scum isn't in that group.

Dunhallym is highly likely town, or really good scum, town for me though. Initially wants to start out scum-hunting and has followed through with the scum-hunting. Seems genuine.

Arc Angel really could swing both ways for me. If someone hasn't ever seen a matrix before, its pretty understandable that she could be confused there? I can see what Dunhallym is getting at with the why follow the crowd when you don't have a clue what's going on though...

There are a few posts that I don't like about Jin.

need Jaack to be in all my games from now on.

^This after Jaack puts him in a pool of three lynch candidates.

You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Jaack

^If that's not a defensive post, I'm not sure what is... and apparently Jaack is scum for being defensive?

I dont agree with his vote being placed on me because some chart tells him to. Find reasons to vote me or someone else, dont vote me because a chart says that i have a large amount of possible scumteam combinations left.

Classic "Caught for the Wrong Reasons" Post. Aaaand then AtE.

VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

[ProHawk]

@ProHawk

I forgot the question I had for you yesterday night.
You said you suspected me because I wanted to postpone the claims. Yet you didn't say anything about Tenshii who gave the same thought. Why?

Could only vote for one person, and it wasn't really a concrete anything to go off of, just a starting point.

[ProHawk]

Gamma probably can't be scum, maybe its conf-bias, but maaan does he look like scum. Imagine all of the people who would be confirmed town if he flipped scum!.... so tempting.

[ProHawk]

And points for Tenshii not really reading the thread?

Maybe I have to spell everything out?

Say everyone went with your chart and voted me, now you have a mislynch when i flip town, a wasted day phase, and one less town member which puts you closer to losing. I will unvote Jaack but i swear if he turns out to be scum, i will be upset at you all.

IE: "Lynch me and I flip town, you waste a day and lose one town and now YOU are closer to losing" - Emotional, fear-mongering, whatever you want to call it.
"I will be upset at you all" - Not sure how you CAN'T say this is emotion.

I guess we can do a quick test... What is my 1st reason for scumreading Jin?

[ProHawk]

He goes from a lean town read to a lean scum read in one sentence.

Huh?

[ProHawk]

If you think i am scum then vote me and when i am lynched ill flip town or you could back off of me and look at other possible scum.

That's the thing.... who are other possible scum Jin?

[ProHawk]

One last thing Tenshii, what is your read on Gamma?

[ProHawk]

Wouldnt any town be upset at the fact that they had a scumread on scum and they got lynched instead of the scum?

This is precisely why you only would have to re-iterate this point as scum and not town, to CONVINCE people you are town.

[ProHawk]

Jin, are you really telling me you have NO scum-reads?

P-EDIT: Yes, and its HEAVILY scum by play. Please re-read his ISO and tell me you still have a slight town read.

[ProHawk]

Tenshii, I don't want you to point and say "this", see, "this" because I didn't spell it out in simple terms. I want to know what your interpretation is.

[ProHawk]

I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

[ProHawk]

WRT Jin and Jaack, Jaack puts Jin into a possible scum-pool, then Jin compliments Jaack. Brown-nosing, sucking up, buddying, whatever you want to call it. Have you never seen scum do this?

P-EDIT: Drive-by posts: Posts that have little to no thought behind them. Quick posts mostly to just post and get the appearance of participating. If you read his posts (ISO) they look (at least to me) like he doesn't really have any motivation to find who scum is, which is usually a scum-trait because they already know who scum are.

[ProHawk]

If you flip scum Gamma, the only possible partners you could have are Tenshii and Dunhallym. Everyone else would be cleared town. Game over.

[ProHawk]

And even then I don't understand why it would be AI. Jaack's scum-pool was based off of statistics in the first place, so you can't particularly get heated about it or anything. Are you talking about scum buddying up to Jaack for putting effort into things like making charts? I have seen that. But I have seen town do that as well.

I don't know what AI stands for... And I disagree with you, if you are scum, you will be VERY upset that you are getting lynched based on statistics. Yes, I am talking about scum buddying. Scum has more motivation than town to do this IMO.

[ProHawk]

Jaack said "I am going to be looking at these three (Jin, Angel, and Dunhallym) closely" so if Jin could get on his good side, maybe he wouldn't be considered as scum by Jaack.

[ProHawk]

It might just be me but I'd get upset if I got lynched based on statistics for either alignment.

Yes... I could see that, however as scum this will potentially cost your team the game. As town, your team still has a good chance of winning.

P-EDIT: Yes, Jin that actually is a decent point on that...

Tenshii, that is EXACTLY what I meant with Gamma.

[ProHawk]

@ProHawk First of all i never said i dont have scumreads,

Then lets hear them.

[ProHawk]

I would like to see more from ArcAngel as well.

[ProHawk]

I like your enthusiasm! But no, only one scum can by lynched at a time .

umm, it looks like he is trying? What do you think about ArcAngel?

[ProHawk]

Prod Pickup. Post after work.

[ProHawk]

Oh my, two replacements now... right at the end of the day

@MOD, Can we get a mini extension on time for the late replacements?

[ProHawk]

Really not getting why Jin kept saying he never TRed Jaack.

Isn't this who you replaced? Why is the first thing you comment on?

Post #210 from Smart is pretty intense.

ProHawk is really aggressive and quick to accuse

I may be aggressive, not sure I agree with the quick to accuse part, but go ahead and meta me, since you like that sorta stuff?

I would like you to expound on why My/Jin's interactions are scum v town. AND I want to know what you disagree with my posts on Gamma - Take into consideration I have no experience with his playstyle.

Is this for me?

Oh and I feel better about Gamma.

[ProHawk]

To sum up my thoughts: I originally disliked Jaack's plan but Jin and Arc are my main suspects at the moment, with ZZZX as a runnerup.

Can you expound on ZZZX please?

[ProHawk]

I think the way PH attacked Jin up until 172 was very unfair and if you look at the way Jin was talking up to that point you'll see that he did admit that he voted purely in reaction to Jaack's vote.

What part of my vote was unfair? He calls someone scum for being defensive or weird and then does the same thing. Do tell how my case is "contrived". What "signs" of scumhunting was Jin showing?

[ProHawk]

what is making you feel better about Gamma now?

He's doing his own bit of scumhunting which seems genuine, not drive-by-sheeping anymore.

[ProHawk]

In post 141, ProHawk wrote:
I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

When pressed by Tenshii for more legitimate reasons for pushing Jin, ProHawk's initial response is to be vague about why he's pushing Jin. This makes me think he is using these aggressive pushes to try to get Jin to say something that will become the reason for players to push him, which Jin eventually does in 172.

Oh this is cute... not even close to me talking about Jin! Post 131 was me trying to get a better read on Jin.

The only player behaving scummy to this point is PH

Right....

Also, I don't think, nor said that Jaacks post was a defensive post. Jin did, and then he made one himself. This leads me to believe that Jin doesn't actually believe that posting defensively is a scum-tell.

[ProHawk]

Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.

[ProHawk]

ProHawk, Gamma - Tell us what you think of the plausibility of the other being scum with Tenshii please. Reads on Tenshii from each of you would also be appreciated. I'm leaning towards Gamma/Tenshii being more likely than ProHawk/Tenshii here.

Plausibility? Nope.

Am I the only one who thinks its extremely odd you feel that a Gamma/Tenshii team is more likely? And if you really do, why would you not start the flash-wagon on Gamma instead of Tenshii?

[ProHawk]

@All except ssbm and Something_Smart: what do you think of the townblock idea?

Not a fan, but that's mostly because I'm never in them... lol

Also, its usually a clever way for scum to skate if they manage to infiltrate the cell.

[ProHawk]

Post after I get some time to re-align.

[ProHawk]

So I see why this matrix makes it easy to overlook scum-hunting... lol

FMPOV, ZZZX, SS, and Dunhallym all have a good chance of being scum.

A re-read of ZZZX seems pretty light in terms of content posts. And

wait this is a nightless?

Seems forced.

Sorry this was a bit light on the overall, but I think I want to start here today and don't have a lot of time

VOTE: ZZZX

[ProHawk]

.... I may need to do some re-evaluating...

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

This wagon can't be ALL town can it?

[ProHawk]

Just kinda paranoid he shifted from a scumread to a townread on me after I townread him but other than that I feel okay on townreading him.

It was more of the way you interacted with me and questioned me.

@Anyone, Why is Jaack your townread?

His posts have a decent trajectory of trying to figure out where scum is hiding. What is your read there?

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

[ProHawk]

Sorry, been a busy weekend! Will catch up and see what we got.

[ProHawk]

@ Tenshii, Prohawk
Could you both explain which points in your interaction with the other is leading to you having a townread on him?

It was after the back and forth and him changing his read on me based on actually reading and understanding my posts. If he were scum pushing a mis-lynch, I would think he would have been a little less flexible in his read and would have kept up his push.

[ProHawk]

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

According to the matrix, she has a good chance of flipping scum. According to play, I don't think she will be flipping scum. So no, not voting there... whats your case there? Why not ZZZZX? Why do you have a town read there?

[ProHawk]

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"

[ProHawk]

We're not lynching ZZZX because he's probably town

This is a false statement.

[ProHawk]

Wait, is ZZZX getting replaced?

[ProHawk]

Are you asking for individual reads? Or if I can tell you what Gamma's reads are?

[ProHawk]

I am not scumreading ProHawk. Just doing some due diligence.

As for Tenshii, I guess it probably makes more sense to lynch ProHawk if Tenshii seems like the best lynch simply because ProHawk is in more scumteams, but my primary interest in lynching them is because I think that they make solid sense as a pair.

So I say again, you are wanting to lynch me because you think that Tenshii is the best lynch, but if he is the best lynch the only pair that you seem to feel is plausible is a ProHawk-Tenshii, so you want to lynch me because I have a higher probability of being scum based on "math". Even though that "math" led you to believe that Dunhallym is simply the best lynch...

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch.

[ProHawk]

So when I flip town, are you going to lynch Tenshii next and claim the game is won? Or are you going to flip Gamma before Tenshii?

[ProHawk]

So when I flip town, are you going to lynch Tenshii next and claim the game is won? Or are you going to flip Gamma before Tenshii?

Neither because, as I've said multiple times, I don't think Tenshii and Gamma is a likely pair at all.

That being said, this leading question stuff is making me more confident in who's the scumteam

I'm not leading you anywhere. I legitimately want to know where you are going to go when I am cleared because that is what will happen.

[ProHawk]

Even if you disagree, his only likely partner is Dunhallym. It's the same reason we're not lynching Tenshii today. If you scumread ZZZX, vote Dunhallym.

Uhmmm what?

[ProHawk]

Jaack, why don't you want to lynch ZZZX?

[ProHawk]

Smart, why aren't you voting?

[ProHawk]

I'm writing it now.

[ProHawk]

So here is where I am at...

Dunhallym - The most town by play. Active, encouraging activity, scum-hunting looks genuine, overall feels town. I'd literally nominate her for best scum performance if she does flip scum.

Tenshii - I have him in my town pile. I am generally a pretty easy person to mis-lynch, probably because of my abrasive nature, and I would think that scum-Tenshii would have capitalized on that when he could have, but didn't. His willingness to be open and change his perspective based on interactions in the thread come from town more so than scum IMO.

Gamma - Play doesn't really feel super town to me, has had some strange votes from my point of view, may be that I like him because he is town reading me, or just that he could only really be scum with Tenshii (who I don't see as scum) either-way not really seeing him flip scum.

SS - His posts have been decent, they seem to have a good amount of analysis and thinking. My problem is the conclusions are off. I also haven't done an in-depth read here just yet. Matrix pushes him over to the possible scum side for me.

Jaack - Initially had me pretty sure he was town based off of the scum-hunting he was doing. His strange as heck reasoning for lynching me based off of a false association made my read flip pretty much 180. It actually looks like his scum-hunting is more methodical than actually trying to figure out who scum is... agenda-like. I could lynch here. His reads on his probable partners are also convenient.

ZZZZX - Pretty sure he is scum, would like to get this scum-flip nailed down and move on from there. He seemed pretty excited starting the game with plans and such, excitement drowned out pretty linearly as time went on, and the started the day with an attempt at a town-slip. My vote is here.

[ProHawk]

In a game where bussing is bad, that's kinda what I'd expect from scum.

This is coming from a guy whose reads completely avoid him voting for his partners.

[ProHawk]

Contrary to my memory, ProHawk was never scumreading Tenshii.

Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.

I'm just going to leave this here....

Jaack, your vote on me is bad. Your reasoning is bad. And its all based on an associative that you have NO CLUE about. Oh look, Tenshii reincarnate wants to lynch me. YOU'RE RIGHT! We totes decided to hard bus eachother because.... new guy!

VOTE: Jaack

Lying scum.

[ProHawk]

What the hell is terrible about the posts. You don't just get to say GARBAGE and that makes it trash.

Here.

Gosh SS that post takes the cake for worst post ever. Are you dumb town or just scum?

[ProHawk]

Okay, I'm pretty sure both scum are within Prohawk, Dunhallym, and Smart

Dun is the most town player in this game.

I'm town.

Are you really going to be just like Jaack? BUDDY ALERT!

I'll assume Jaack to be the nightkill since he's the most universally townread player.

L O Freaking L

[ProHawk]

Ugh, you can't possibly be scum, but good job turning the tide for scum. You can be an honorary team-mate I guess

[ProHawk]

Dun has been the most active player this game, and not just active in posting for posts' sake, but actively engaging players and getting them to think and contribute. This is inherently anti-scum.

Why are you town-reading Jaaak?

[ProHawk]

Jaack is my scum-read, and is likely scum. He is setting up his endgame by claiming I am scum because of scum-team matrix associatives before flips.

He isn't lying scum because he is wrong, he is lying scum because he is using the lie to make me look bad.

[ProHawk]

Alright you scum bags you better freaking let me get my last post in before you hammer me

[ProHawk]

If anyone quick hammers consider them scum and Lynch with extreme prejudice tomorrow

[ProHawk]

Jaack, look - I get why you might think Prohawk and Tenshii were scum but I like to think I'm fairly readable guy as town. We worked together decently well in mhsmith's game. I think you are town and right about Prohawk, work with me here.

This is the garbage that pisses me off. "Hey were buds, we play together, lets team up."

[ProHawk]

No he isn't? He admitted that his case was weakened by his error (not lie!) but also that it brought up a new point.
Which is a valid point. Why didn't you ever call him out on the fact that he was wrong about you scumreading Tenshii?

Are you really this dense? THE LIE IS THAT HE IS SAYING I NEVER SCUMREAD TENSHII WHEN I POSTED THAT HE DID SOME SCUMMY STUFF WHICH IS WHERE HE SAID I HAD A "WEAK" SCUMREAD ON HIM.

[ProHawk]

Look, here is Jaacks plan for the blind.

He is scum-reading Tenshii. He can't just jump from his town-read on me to scum-read without anything to show for it, but he NEEDS to mis-lynch me in order to get the matrix to align for an easy win. So what does he do? He creates these scum-team scenarios from the matrix to lynch someone who ISN'T Tenshii, BUT BUT is "obviously" Tenshii's partner because he knows Tenshii will flip town. And of course Prohawk and Tenshii did this super scummy connection which later he would say didnt really happen but then Prohawk is MORE scum because this thing that didn't really happen but did really kinda happen Prohawk didn't call me out on so he is SUPER scum.

Lynching Tenshii first does a few things.

1) Creates scrutiny on him for a bad push.
2) Eliminates his "scum-read" so then he has to find someone else to migrate to.

If he lynches Tenshii's "partner" first then... (and isn't it convenient that the matrix supports his decision to lynch before seeing if Tenshii doesn't end up being scum because look at those ODDS!!)

3) When Tenshii's partner flips town (which Jaack knows will happen), it leaves him open to Say whoops, I guess Prohawk wasn't really scum, dang, but Tenshii/BlackVoid is still scum so either...
a) Gamma by extension is scum and lynches him (endgame)

or
b) Tenshii is scum lets lynch him now (endgame)


THIS is why you can't scum-hunt off of someone without a flipped scum-card otherwise your hunting is flawed and you get crappy results. Or if you're scum, you are just stacking the deck which is EXACTLY what Jaack is doing.

OH

And if that's not enough for you, Jaaack doesn't bat ONE EYE that his SCUMREAD (And yes he is Still scum-reading Tenshii/BlackVoid or at least that's what he is presenting in the thread) is voting for his supposed "partner". THAT alone should tell you something.

This game can be so annoying and frustrating... all of these replacements are ridiculous. Please lynch me now.

And never never lynch Gamma, or Dunhallym... you could lynch BlackVoid not because he is scum though, just because he joined the darkside. Ok I feel better now.

[ProHawk]

Don't be mad bro

[ProHawk]

Because I foiled your plan.

[ProHawk]

If I were scum, that is a blatantly terrible plan. Do you think anyone would be willing to listen to me push a single scumpair D3 after I lead two mislynches? Especially after I made arguments against that specific scumpair previously? Come on

Don't play dumb. This is what scum have to do EVERY SINGLE GAME

[ProHawk]

GG all!

I'm good with the scum-chat opened.

Smart, it was a close one and we did our best! Thanks for your hard work.

BV, you're crazy dedicated man. I still think you would have played the same as scum FWIW, your opening move was brilliant regardless of alignment.

Replacements really screwed with the game unfortunately.

[ProHawk]

Still dont understand the no kill N1 restriction....

[ProHawk]

I have seen a lot of references to my "poor", or "terrible" posts, could I get some constructive feedback please?

[ProHawk]

That was my angle, do you think it would have been better to Lynch one of my potential Partners than one who could not have been?

[ProHawk]

it could only confirm town, not scum

Unless said lynch confirms enough town to confirm scum.