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Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #348 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:55 am
Postby Aristophanes »
Holy shit this catchup is grueling. Grapes and MoI, I'm glad you learned to give each other space, but geez. I'm not sure if it's a TvT or Tvs yet, but I definitely have a good townread on Grapes from it. MoI I'm still trying to figure out.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #356 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:13 am
Postby Aristophanes »
I was thinking Shannon might be scum at the beginning, but I see BTD as far more likely. His pushes are bad and his Grapes/Shannon scumteam idea seems really farfetched and unnatural.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #357 (isolation #4) » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:17 am
Postby Aristophanes »
So, apparently most people aren't really posting much, eh?
Magna, there age a good many noted "lurkers" in the game. I see that you want to lynch one, but who among the lot would that be and why?
I know this is a hard thing to answer given the low content nature of these slots, but I'd appreciate it.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #395 (isolation #9) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:36 am
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 47, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Also have another scum read that I will explain when back from V/LA if it pans out during the weekend.
Did this ever happen? I see the Grapes tunnel, but I don't see any other early cases in your ISO. Who was this going to be on, Magna, and is it still relevant?
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #495 (isolation #11) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:43 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 494, Ranmaru wrote:Aristo, I'd like a stance or two from you. Where do you stand in terms of wagons?
In terms of wagons? Not in terms of reads? What odd word choice. Especially considering part of Grapes' arguments against MoI is thinking in terms of mislynches."
Grapes is a fairly strong townread though, and the two of you have made a solid MoI argument. I'll vote there before the end of day.
I was out. Just walking home now. I'm gonna do some analysis before bed then probably disappear until after deadline, so I want to make an informed choice. However, Grapes remains a townread at this juncture, and I'm taking nite of the BTD wagon as a counterwagon to MoI should he flip scum.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #518 (isolation #13) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:16 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
Right. I forgot until I started rereading MoI's Iso that I already did that. That's where I got the quote in 395 that he never answered.
And his 498 says an awful lot about his motivations this game. None of the lurkers seem likely to be scum to him, yet Rach and NM are good "fallback lynches" if he has to resort to then. It looks like he's not actually looking for a scum flip, just any flip. PLs suck man!
I'm going to read the shorter "lurker" Isos tn (so long as I can stay awake) as they are the slots I don't have solid reads on yet.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #519 (isolation #14) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:39 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
Hmm...if this is a scum flip, BTD is assuredly town as the counterwagon attempt. If this is a town flip, he is very possibly scum. His iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.
Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #522 (isolation #15) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:50 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
Not_Mafia is actually a townlean at the moment. Shaddowez had solid posts when he could be around, and I haven't seen anything AI in NM himself. Based on predecessor play, he gets a townlean. That fake hammer was super lame though.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #523 (isolation #16) » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:57 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 520, Tenshii wrote:Independent of an MoI flip or read, what is your read on BTD?
Independently, scumlean.
The reason there is dependence in the picture is the counterwagon nature of his current wagon. If MoI flips scum, which I believe there is a good chance of, BTD scum just doesn't seem viable.
It's all preflip though, which is shitty and unreliable. I'm merely mentioning it for post-flip consideration.
In post 523, Aristophanes wrote:The reason there is dependence in the picture is the counterwagon nature of his current wagon. If MoI flips scum, which I believe there is a good chance of, BTD scum just doesn't seem viable.
I still don't get it. Also if I'm interpreting what I think you're trying to say, does the same logic apply to Grapes?
Indeed, however I already think Grapes is town. via his play. BTD is scum or extremely tunneled town, and the counterwagon (as opposed to the dueling wagon)not MoI. That's the difference.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #542 (isolation #20) » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:21 am
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 534, shannon wrote:PEdit is the wrong thing but you get what I mean: Got half way through this and people have shown up
That would be ninja posts. Because they Ninja'd in before you could post yours
In post 533, shannon wrote:Nope, sorry, don't agree. I think Magna is town and if he flips scum, that won't change my view on BTD. Focus on that second part of your point, the bit I've bolded. Is that not worth a vote on its own?
I already stated that it is. But this wagon timing is creeping me out man!
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #567 (isolation #24) » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:23 am
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 565, BTD6_maker wrote:MoI's last reads certainly must be considered (especially since we know he is Town) but we should not assume he is always right. It is certainly possible that Shannon is scum. However, we know he is guaranteed not to be lying so his reads are slightly more accurate than any of ours on average. Aristo is a weak scumread so for now:
VOTE: Aristophanes
This logic is actually rather fallacious. His reads are now confirmed to be genuine. That doesn't make them any more correct though. Dead town can be just as wrong as living town. I know you somewhat address this, but you still make the claim that his reads have a higher chance of being correct than ours do, which is wrong.
Also, you aren't considering Grapes' reads for some reason, despite him being the NK and confirmed town. Why is that?
In post 519, Aristophanes wrote:[BTD's] iso is about 90% Grapes and Shannon commentary, and an awful lot of his justification is awkward and fake. Like he really has to push to make cases, so he's over thinking them and making them very robotic.
Also, his attempt to derail the MoI wagon is noted. Well, that is, his attempt to discredit Grapes and push that lynch ahead by saying how bad his vote was. This is part of a series of analyses on the MoI votes that started with Grapes and ended with...Grapes.
Everyone on BTD - Please explain why I was so crazy to try to lynch him yesterday, yet here you all are?
I'd also love to see a justification of the cross-voting that's going on, it is anything more than OMGUS?
I made the case yesterday. But I thought for sure MoI was scum and there was no chance the two could be scum together. I had a lot more faith in my MoI read, therefore that was the scumread I pursued. That has turned out to be wrong, which validated my BTD suspicions.
How do you feel about his assertion that I am scum? I feel like his reasoning is weak. Grapes was pretty obviously a VT, based in the way he played the game. I was on his radar so little I don't remember him mentioning a scumread on me. He was a strong townread of mine. If u were scum, that is the kind of player I'd never get rid of!
In fact, with the oddity of the kill (he was a very possible mislynch if left alive today), I would argue we probably have a scumteam of newer players.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #679 (isolation #35) » Fri Oct 21, 2016 2:10 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
Shannon is town. Is this actually in question?
NM is a little hazier, but I don't see a Rach/NM Scumteam as some have proposed, so he gets some points there. I'll have to look back into him tomorrow.
Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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Post #927 (isolation #38) » Fri Nov 04, 2016 5:14 pm
Postby Aristophanes »
In post 926, shannon wrote:PS - Aristo, I doctored you N1 and I doctored BTD N2. Luckily BTD knew what was up with Tenshii (and luckily I got it together D2 and resisted the NM wagon) or it would have been very different for town.
Aw thanks!
This is why I wanted to keep you around. You were reading me exactly as I had hoped the Doc would!
If I'd lived through D2 and not been lynched I think we could have pulled it off! The switch deviated us!