Micro 632 - Mislead [Game Over]

[FakeGod]

PLAYERLIST

1. callforjudgement
   
2. Zyf - DEAD
   
3. podoboq - DEAD
   
4. Lucky2u
   
5. Infinity 324 - DEAD
   
6. Something_Smart
   BBmolla
   
   
7. Edosurist
   The_Jester
   
   
8. algebra - DEAD
   
9. Javajoe24

Spoiler: Setup

Setup

• 2
  Mafia
  Players vs 7
  Town
  Players
  
• You are a group of explorers trying to leave a dangerous maze.
  
• You may lynch as usual, but flips will only occur at the
  beginning
  of each
  Day Phase
  .
  
• There are no night kills.
  
  
  
• Each
  Day Phase
  will present with two paths. During the
  Night Phase
  , each player will PM the mod which path he/she will take.
  
• One path leads to
  death
  . Other will lead to
  safety
  .
  Mafia always knows which path is safe.
  
  
• If any
  Town
  -aligned player walks down
  6 safe paths
  ,
  Town wins
  .
  
• If number of living
  Town
  -aligned players is equal to number of living
  Mafia
  -aligned players,
  Mafia
  wins.
  
  
  
• Each player can use
  Future Sight
  once during the game by declaring so in thread. The mod will immediately notify that player via PM which path is the
  safe
  path.
  
  
  
• Each Day phase will last 8 days.
  
• Each Night will last 2 days or whenever all path choices are submitted.
  
• Mafia will have a PT to talk in.

Spoiler: Role PMs

Town:

Town

Mafia:

Mafia

[FakeGod]

Role PMs are out! Please confirm via PM.

Countdown to game start: (expired on 2016-08-02 20:00:00)

[FakeGod]

Day 1

[The_Jester]

First!

[The_Jester]

VOTE: algebra

I hate Maths

[Infinity 324]

Ok here's what I got.

If there's a player we can bet the game on being town, we have them future sight and follow their lead. Otherwise, we have the 2 towniest players future sight. If they match, we just follow that path. Both those players are most likely town since it's to scum's advantage to lie about which is the right path. If the future sights don't match, you split up. The lying one becomes outed the next day, and you lynch them. (Don't lynch until you have confirmed scum). Also, if someone doesn't go down the path they were assigned, they are confirmed scum.

Don't think these really breaks the game but it gives us a good chance to win.

VOTE: zyf

[The_Jester]

Hmm but we only have 7 of those. Will that be enough?

[The_Jester]

What I mean is, I wouldn't want to end up in a situation where we're all out of FS and it's still a long road ahead.

[algebra]

VOTE: podoboq

[The_Jester]

Dunno if we actually can afford to burn 2 FS a day but I suck at maths and stuff so I'll leave that to smarter people and just sheep the best looking strat.

[Infinity 324]

If we don't use 2 fs per day, we have to either split up every day, or bet the game that someone's town.

[algebra]

i think the best bet for today is 2 fs, i dont think we can be sure of someone's towniness on d1

[Zyf]

Hi guys

I'm going to be on a plane all day just for today sorrryyy

Kthnx

[Zyf]

Ok here's what I got.

If there's a player we can bet the game on being town, we have them future sight and follow their lead. Otherwise, we have the 2 towniest players future sight. If they match, we just follow that path. Both those players are most likely town since it's to scum's advantage to lie about which is the right path. If the future sights don't match, you split up. The lying one becomes outed the next day, and you lynch them. (Don't lynch until you have confirmed scum). Also, if someone doesn't go down the path they were assigned, they are confirmed scum.

Don't think these really breaks the game but it gives us a good chance to win.

VOTE: zyf

Agree with this
I had this plan in mind as well
I'll burn mine if you guys want me to
Also can we please vote nolynch for now

[The_Jester]

I could get behind this.

VOTE: NL

I also volunteer to use FS today.

[callforjudgement]

UNVOTE:

Please, do not vote nor use Future Sight until we've agreed on a plan.

Unvote if you've voted! If scum could quickhammer someone D1, they would most likely win even if doing so exposed the identity of both scum!

This isn't a setup that can be won without a strategy.

Key strategic points which any potential breaking strategy needs to take into account:

• Town cannot win unless a townie survives to D7; lynching all the scum is not a town victory condition.
  As such, lynching players only helps in two ways: preventing scum's numbers equalling town's and winning at 1:1 or 2:2; and (the next day) discovering their alignment for associatives. Meanwhile, it comes with a huge risk: lynching a townie gives you one fewer player who could potentially guess their way through to D7 and help to outnumber scum. In particular,
  there is very little upside to lynching scum, and a huge downside for lynching town
  . Lynching a player who's outright demonstrated that they're scum (e.g. by lying about a Future Sight result) is reasonable. Lynching a player who you merely strongly suspect is scum isn't. All lynches should be based on theory grounds.
  
• Players
  should not be allowed to volunteer to use Future Sight
  . If they do, the scum could coordinate using it as a scumpair.
  
• On the other hand,
  identifying
  certain or likely scum is highly useful. As explained below, we want every player to take the same path on the earlier days, so we have to be pretty certain that that path is correct. The fewer unidentified scum there are, the fewer Future Sight uses you need to be certain a path is safe (if all the scum are identified, you can do it with one; with two scum at large, you need three players to agree to be certain).
  
• There are two basic strategies for surviving the night: using Future Sight, which costs Future Sight uses, and splitting paths, which costs town lives. If you split before the Future Sights are used up, then you're basically just wasting Future Sights if they end up in the group who dies. As such,
  we want to leave everyone (barring confirmed scum) alive as long as possible
  (which will, mathematically, probably be day 4 or 5).
  
• There is no 100% breaking strategy
  , so
  we'll need to scumhunt
  . Scumhunting can be hard if scum don't feel threatened. As such, a strategy should identify the ways in which it can fail, and we should unofficially vote on who should be considered the towniest and scummiest players (so that they can be slotted into places in the strategy that are less and more tolerant of scum, respectively). This should hopefully produce voting patterns more like a normal game, making scumhunting possible. Don't neglect the power of townhunting in a setup like this, either.
  
• Identifying a scum, especially early, is worth several (approximately two) Future Sight uses as it reduces the amount of Future Sight you need to be safe later, and also reduces the number of townies who need to survive once we're flying blind.
  
• When flying blind and sending one group down each path, then the larger group should contain scummier players (although if both scum are alive we want one in each group), but be responsible for choosing which path each player is sent down. This prevents scum who manage to get in a smaller group from intentionally causing the larger group to die, which is often the only way that scum can win this scenario after we're late enough in the game to resort it.
  
• A more specific point about a setup that's quite likely to happen: In a 2:1 endgame D6 with no Future Sight left, the towniest player should take one path, and the two scummiest players the other. This way, town can only lose if the "towniest player" is scum, and even then will only lose 50% of the time.

I'll present my best attempt at a breaking strategy in a bit,

but

I'm not sure whether I should reveal the whole thing immediately, or whether I should reveal it in stages as it becomes relevant. The advantage of a phased reveal is that it may cause scum to misplay due to not knowing what's coming. The disadvantage is that it'd give me an opportunity to potentially intentionally back town into a corner if I were scum; players who are sufficiently versed in theory might well be able to figure out that I was doing that, but admittedly I might well have tried it as scum anyway (it might work better in that case than having a breaking strategy used against me).

[callforjudgement]

Ok here's what I got.

If there's a player we can bet the game on being town, we have them future sight and follow their lead. Otherwise, we have the 2 towniest players future sight. If they match, we just follow that path. Both those players are most likely town since it's to scum's advantage to lie about which is the right path. If the future sights don't match, you split up. The lying one becomes outed the next day, and you lynch them. (Don't lynch until you have confirmed scum). Also, if someone doesn't go down the path they were assigned, they are confirmed scum.

This is mostly correct as far as it goes. However, if you only have the towniest players future sight, scum could easily play scummy intentionally in order to avoid being chosen and then arrange to be the Future Sight users day 4. Really, what we want is for the scummiest players to future sight without ever pairing two scum, but this is a hard thing to arrange.

[callforjudgement]

Also can we please vote nolynch for now

What theory reason do you have for requesting this?

This makes me very suspicious (as opposed to the correct course of

unvoting

for now). If even three townies follow your advice, then scum has a fairly easy win: they could get one scum onto the no-lynch wagon without giving away their identity, and get the other to quickhammer it, leading to a disorganized night in which three or four townies would likely die, and leaving only just enough Future Sight uses to complete the game even if both scum are known (which they wouldn't be).

@Mod: Do scum have daytalk?

@Mod: If both scum are lynched, would that cause town to automatically win, or would a townie still have to take the right path N6?

[FakeGod]

@Mod: Do scum have daytalk?

@Mod: If both scum are lynched, would that cause town to automatically win, or would a townie still have to take the right path N6?

Yes, scum has daytalk.
Townie still has to take the right path n6 to win.

[Infinity 324]

Ok here's what I got.

If there's a player we can bet the game on being town, we have them future sight and follow their lead. Otherwise, we have the 2 towniest players future sight. If they match, we just follow that path. Both those players are most likely town since it's to scum's advantage to lie about which is the right path. If the future sights don't match, you split up. The lying one becomes outed the next day, and you lynch them. (Don't lynch until you have confirmed scum). Also, if someone doesn't go down the path they were assigned, they are confirmed scum.

This is mostly correct as far as it goes. However, if you only have the towniest players future sight, scum could easily play scummy intentionally in order to avoid being chosen and then arrange to be the Future Sight users day 4. Really, what we want is for the scummiest players to future sight without ever pairing two scum, but this is a hard thing to arrange.

I actually think it's best to have the towniest players future sight first anyway, because we want to delay splitting up as long as possible. What you're saying is a problem though.

Also 2:1 endgame is a loss for town because scum can just take the safe path even if they're not assigned to it.

UNVOTE:

[The_Jester]

UNVOTE:

[algebra]

UNVOTE:

[Javajoe24]

Hey guys. This is going to be an interesting game.

[Infinity 324]

Also 2:1 endgame is a loss for town because scum can just take the safe path even if they're not assigned to it.

Actually you were talking about d6, never mind

[The_Jester]

Hey guys. This is going to be an interesting game.

You think?