Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Something_Smart]

Smart - can you link me to a scum game where you survived or remained in the game until near the end?

Here's a good example. I don't have that many recent ones; my scumgame has been terrible lately.

[BlackVoid]

You've been giving Smart quite a bit of leeway for pushing Prohawk but it actually fits better with him knowing too much than by him being 100% right about the scumteam upon replacing in

page nine of day one.

More likely, he put Prohawk down as his secondary scumread because he wanted to distance/bus. If you look at his scumgames, he distances and busses a lot so it explains his interactions with Prohawk pretty well. Here are a few of his most recent games as scum:

Defcon Mafia 4.0 - He got lynched D1 here. One thing you notice by looking over the game is that he's fairly distance and bus-happy.

Spoiler:

re: reads, initial feelings say:
towny:

Cheetory, mastina

,

UT

,

MoI

,

Spiffeh

scummy:

Nukebringer

,

GiF,

Cephrir

conflicting feelings:

RC, LLD, Nahdia

discussion tabled for now-

Reck

In his first reads-list, of his four partners, he put two as town and two as scum with two-thirds of his scumreads being his partners. Later on, he still scumreads one of his partners and votes another partner (UT) several times. One thing that struck me as odd in his initial readslist in the current game is how he had Prohawk as a scumread but Tenshii as a super-strong scumread because I never thought his reasons for scumreading Tenshii made any sense whatsoever. I think he just wanted to push my slot in conjunction with his Prohawk push.

The Walking Dead: Season 1 Finale - This is one of the games I was referring to where he made it to lategame. He's part of a hydra with Creature called "Young and Witless." He was mostly townread all the way to the end but lost because a town player used a one-shot dayvig on him. His first non-RVS vote is a vote for his partner hebichan. His second vote was for a townie. His third vote was for another partner (PeregrineV). After he busses two of his three partners, he mostly pushes mislynches on town to get to late-game. If you look at the VCs of that game, you'll see that he had early positions on both Hebichan's and PeregrineV's wagons although he unvotes the former later on.

New York 194: Guns N' Roses Mafia! - This is the one he linked earlier.

Spoiler:

Ira's and Killthestory's reads are both pretty good. Kuroi's are questionable (as far as I can tell the only time he mentioned me in his catchup was to say that I was towny on page 2, so...).

Town-

DrippingGoofball

,

KickAssAndGiggle

,

Yume, Killthestory, Egg

Null/town-

Performer, Ilikebugs, Slandaar, iraonavp

Null-

KuroiXHF, SnarkySnowman

Null/scum-

Fraggernaut

,

Aristophanes

,

Ozgin

,

GuyFawkes

Scum-

Drixx, Firebringer

From his readslist, he had one of his three partners as town and the other two as null-scum which is where he put Prohawk in the current game. There's a recurring pattern from Smart's scumgames where he consistently likes to distance and bus from his partners and I hope you see how it's way more likely that he's simply bussing as usual by putting Prohawk as his second scumread as opposed to somehow against all odds nailed the scumteam on page nine without even interacting with anyone or questioning people. He was approaching the game from an informed perspective.

Then there's his lampshading of this by saying he suspected Dun because he didn't think he'd be right. But nobody really thinks like that or change their reads because they don't think they could have nailed the scumteam. That's something that can only be seen externally. In fact, most people like being right about their initial readslist and tend to be more attached to them. The motive I gave - that he saw Dun as the safest push - fits a whole lot better for why he showed up and suddenly switched to Dun.

[BlackVoid]

Another thing to consider because this is important: Narrowing my scumpool when I replaced in to Prohawk/Smart/Dun makes sense for me to do as scum. They also make sense as the reads I have as town because my top scumread, Prohawk could only be scum with Smart or Dun from my POV. The fact that I narrowed it down to those three people is null.

On the other hand, Smart's reads don't make sense as

either town or scum

. In 322, despite his scumread on Tenshii weakening, he said he could see Tenshii/Prohawk. In 432 (the post where he votes Prohawk), he claims that he's paranoid that I could be appealing to him to protect my buddy Gamma. Except if he could see me with Gamma and Prohawk, how come he's voting Prohawk as opposed to me? This doesn't make logical sense coming from an uninformed townie. The fact that he voted scum when logic dictated that he should be voting town is what gives away that he knows more and is bussing like he usually does. There's a lot of really vague language there "a townflip would give us a ton of information and a scumflip would almost solve the game." He's hesitating to state the facts outright because (and this is something that scum with a middling amount of experience do) he thinks blatantly tying someone to a scum that he's lynching is going to look bad. In my experience, newbie scum tie their partners to townies. Semi-experienced scum tend to avoid doing this too obviously (see how he worded 468 "I don't really see you or her particularly being ProHawk's partner, but I'm pretty confident that he is scum). But if he can't see a partner to Prohawk, then he

cannot

be confident Prohawk is scum and he should be exploring other options.

I really wanted to bring this up because Smart argued that my POE made sense for scum to do. But it also makes sense for town. His makes sense for neither and is an indication that he's going out of his way to make it look like he's not partnered with Prohawk without realizing that if he truly didn't know Prohawk's alignment, then his stances don't add up.

[BlackVoid]

I'm here if you want to chat but might fall back asleep. Been disappointed in lylo too many times and don't want it happening again. Hopefully you've seen why Smart's play fits as scum and even if he distanced well from Prohawk, he lost motivation to play for most of D3 and was no longer really trying to gamesolve. Don't let the idea of going with Jaack's and Dun's reads lose us the game. They'll appreciate if you come to your own conclusion and get it right. I'm town here and I'm playing out of my mind. I don't know if I can ever bring myself to be so motivated as scum because my primary source of enjoyment from playing mafia is from finding and lynching scum and gamesolving.

[BlackVoid]

In all three town games I've played on this site, the dead people winded up being wrong. In Mini 1843, all the dead people including me called scum-Cloudkicker town and he won the game in lylo because Creature just went with that. In Mini 1838, Dierfire went down calling me scum and the other townie nn30 promised to vote me. He did but luckily the scum hadn't voted yet so he was able to retract his vote. Then in Dragon Age Mafia, Iraonavp went down calling Shadow_Step scum but after I replaced in, I disregarded that and voted correctly. Going with the dead people's latest reads statistically worked out in 0% of the games I've played. You just have to see that literally nothing I've done this game had any scum motivation whatsoever, that Smart's view of the game was informed and he coasted after his bus got him towncred while Dun and I spent a crazy amount of time trying to gamesolve even if we unfortunately ended up being wrong. The amount of info we had was low (AA9 was unreadable) and we both made the wrong call. And of course if anything I did doesn't make sense to you and you want an explanation, I'm happy to walk you through it again.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 4.1

Votecount 4.1

[1] Something_Smart: BlackVoid
[0] Ms Columbo
[1] BlackVoid: Something_Smart

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Ms Columbo

3 players are alive and 2 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-01-22 21:00:00)

[Something_Smart]

I'd like to address 626 in particular, which is essentially a lesson in cherry-picking data.

BV gave evidence from my three large games, of which I have been scum in all three. In each, I powerbussed at least one partner and I distanced more weakly with at least one more.
Therefore, it stands to reason that in a micro, I would also be likely to bus, and therefore I'm scum here because I pushed flipped scum.

Except that BV is using games where I had three or four buddies and trying to support a conclusion about games where I would only have one. Aside from the three BV listed, I have only had one partner in each of my scumgames.

9 or fewer players (2-player team):

Newbie 1663- My first game and first scumgame. I did not bus until I was almost literally forced to, and as soon as my partner was replaced and the pressure dropped on him, I stopped.

Won.

Micro 567: Work Sneak Mafia 2- I townread my partner all game.

Won.

Micro 599: Worst (Role) Idea(s) Mafia- My hydra was lynched day 1, but I never bussed my partner.

Lost.

Micro 632: Mislead- Unusual setup, but I didn't bus. Had my partner around null until he became confirmed scum.

Lost.

10-13 players (2-player team):

Open 624: Fire & Ice- My partner was super awkward, returning after a 5-year hiatus. I bussed him day 2, because I felt he was going down anyway.

Lost.

Mini 1818: Princess Bride Mafia- Had my hydra's partner as null-town until he was killed night 2.

Won.

Open 654: Two Fold Matrix6- Townread my partner for the entirety of my life (I was killed night 1).

Won.

I don't have any scumgames with 3-player teams.

So BV is manipulating data to paint me as bus-happy, in order to explain away the fact that my vote was one of the most important on ProHawk's wagon, and that unlike BV, I wasn't under enough pressure that I needed to prove that I wasn't partnered with ProHawk. (BV, on the other hand, had to dispel the ProHawk/Tenshii suspicion by any means possible.) In fact, I rarely bus my partner when I only have one, and I certainly wouldn't if my partner were as townread as ProHawk was.

[BlackVoid]

Smart's latest post doesn't take away from my point which was that he busses when he thinks he can ride on that towncred. Smart listed out seven games. In two of them (Newbie 1663 and Micro 567), he claimed that he townread his partners. I'll take his word for it. If his partner is townread, then he obviously wouldn't bus. Why would he? If we're going to use his logic, you'd look at my only completed scumgame, see that I hard-townread my partner throughout and conclude that there's no way I'd have bussed Prohawk. But I'm not pretending that's a strong argument.

But look at the other five games he listed. One of them (mislead) barely even classifies as mafia and is heavily dependent on night actions. Look at the ruleset for yourself. Smart passing that game off as relevant is not even being intellectually honest.

Four more of the games (Worst role idea, Fire and Ice, Princess Bride, TwoFold Matrix6) that Smart listed above are multiball so there's no cred from bussing your partners. Why would you bus in multiball rather than hunt for the opposing scum faction? Who's cherry-picking irrelevant data now?

---

I also want to address his "my vote was the most important one on Prohawk's wagon" which is meaningless rhetoric. This guy could give Trump a run for his money. How was his vote more important than mine? My replace in and voting Prohawk changed the flow of the game because my predecessor was townreading Prohawk and Jaack was the only one hard-pushing the Prohawk/Tenshii angle. It doesn't help me as scum to lynch Prohawk at that point and confirm Jaack's suspicions that Prohawk was scum which would lead to me being the natural next suspect. If Prohawk was alive and townread, then I'd be safe because people weren't going into Prohawk-Tenshii if they thought Prohawk was town but lynching him removes all doubt.

Secondly, if you see the votecount in 400, Smart had two votes on him, Prohawk had one, my slot had zero. This was when I replaced in. Smart was the one under pressure, not me. Dun was wavering a bit but didn't remove her vote from him. Gamma had Smart as his strongest scumread. Prohawk was posturing against Smart. If I were partnered with Prohawk, I could have easily planned out a Smart mislynch and get to 5-way lylo with Prohawk as a near-universal townread.

Look at it this way: a Prohawk scumflip would make me look superficially bad but Smart look superficially good. Only he had motivation to bus because the towncred he gets from that bus outweighs his chances of winning without bussing. Because if I pushed Prohawk hard and got him lynched and Smart wasn't on the wagon, how do you think that would look for him? He was forced into bussing as soon as I made my intentions clear. If I were scum on the other hand, my victory path would be significantly different and would rely on taking Prohawk to lylo and clean-sweeping the town with no scum-lynches.

An important thing I learned on my homesite - don't bus unless you can chain at least one or two mislynches to that bus. Smart had clear motive to bus here because he had a lot to gain. The only thing I'd get is to show everyone who townread Prohawk that he was indeed scum and make them start to wonder if Jaack was right.

[BlackVoid]

I mean, the prevailing thought at that time was that there were two people that weren't Smart who could plausibly be linked to Prohawk. So, bussing him and chaining those mislynches after is a pretty straightforward strategy. And if I hadn't been so involved and engaged with the game and fought tooth and nail to the end, Smart would have won by now.

If I drew scum, I'd have tried my best to bring Prohawk to 5-way either by lynching Smart or pushing a lurker lynch on ZZZX or maybe even Gamma.

One thing I completely forgot to mention that I can't believe it escaped my mind: Prohawk fit into more scumteams than I did. So, anyone who scumread me had to lynch Prohawk first (unless they thought I was partnered with Gamma which no on did as far as I remember). So, as long as Prohawk was townread, I was shielded from the lynch. It didn't matter that Dun thought Tenshii was scum. Because she townread Prohawk, she didn't even consider lynching me. Going to lylo with Prohawk would have been immensely helpful for me because he was townread by quite a few people and no one who townread him would vote me. That pretty much guarantees a win. If you seriously think I bussed here, I don't know what to tell you.

[BlackVoid]

Here are Dun's and Gamma's last reads-lists before I replaced in:

I scumread Tenshii but not Prohawk. I can see why the pair makes sense but I also think it's easy to build associations or to be wrong about associations.
Jaack and SSmart both bring points against Tenshii/Gamma and there's no reason not to trust them on that. They can be town and wrong but the fact that they both make points in the same direction leads me to disregard this connection.
I've not reread ZZZX but I scumread him yesterday and Jaack's and SSmart's refusal to consider him raises all kind of flags.
I'm wavering on SSmart. His last post sounded more genuine than the previous one.
I have a huge paranoia attack on Jaack.

From town to scum
Dunhallym
Prohawk
Tenshii
Jaack
ZZZX
Something_Smart

The options would have been endless for a hypothetical me-scum. Lynching Smart would have been one option. ZZZX was another if me and Prohawk voted him. Prohawk had ZZZX as scum anyways so he wouldn't even have needed to make any major stance changes. There was even an outside chance of swinging the lynch to Jaack given Dun and Gamma had reservations about him. Could have killed Gamma if that happened to ensure that Prohawk was the only one I could be partnered with. We could pick kills in a way so that people townreading Prohawk and scumreading each other would be alive and they obviously wouldn't vote me if they townread Prohawk. I'd be shooting myself in the foot by bussing at this point. If you think I bussed, you'd have to believe that I passed up a much easier chance of victory with a plethora of options available to intentionally shoot myself in the foot by flipping someone who could be a partner to me but otherwise townread.

[Something_Smart]

I also want to address his "my vote was the most important one on Prohawk's wagon" which is meaningless rhetoric. This guy could give Trump a run for his money.

So BV is manipulating data to paint me as bus-happy, in order to explain away the fact that my vote was

one of the most important

on ProHawk's wagon

While we're making Trump references, how about the guy who claims things that patently aren't true?

[Ms Columbo]

Letting you know that I'm still here. There is one more thing I want to check and it will have to wait until tomorrow (Tuesday).

[BlackVoid]

Great. What are your thoughts currently at?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I've been refreshing the page for the past ten minutes that it's almost unhealthy so I'm going to stop and just point out: don't vote until you've discussed all of the points brought up and just explain what you are thinking in thread and walk me through your thought process (unless you are voting Smart in which case feel free anytime). I don't want a repeat of what nn30 did in Mini 1838 where he just voted me out of the blue and for a full five minutes, I was under the impression that I just lost the game and I spent most of this lylo too concerned that the same thing might happen again,

[BlackVoid]

Here's the checklist I promised. I'll preface this by saying that people's reads change constantly and optimal town play is not to go with the reads of players who had far less information that you do now. D1 lynches are almost always mislynches for example because the town doesn't have a lot of information. As you gain more information, you can make more accurate choices. I hope you understand that what Jaack and Dun expect of you is to make the right choice, not sheep their reads. With that said, look at the evidence against me vs Smart:

1. I had very little motivation to bus since Prohawk being townread means neither me nor Prohawk get lynched.

At the point I replaced in (page 17), Smart was the one under pressure, not me so the entire narrative he's spinning twists the facts. Neither Gamma nor Dun backed Jaack on his Prohawk push, and ZZZX's reads were an enigma. As long as Prohawk was townread by Dun and Gamma, he wasn't getting lynched, and I wasn't getting lynched as long as people townread Prohawk because he fit into more scumteams and anyone scumreading me had to lynch him first. Smart's case is different because he had two votes on him and I had him in my POE pool and there was the possibility he'd get lynched and Prohawk after him.

2. Smart had motivation to bus because bussing is more likely to win him the game than not bussing.

He bussed right after I made 421 and 431 calling Dun as Prohawk's most likely partner. Jaack was hardcore pushing me as the partner. So, he had two mislynches set which is all he needs to win. I have no motivation to bus because with my partner getting townread, swinging a lynch on someone else is more likely to win me the game than bussing and if you think I'm scum, you also have to think I'm deliberately, purposefully making it so much harder on myself than it has to be. Smart painted it as some desperate move to prove I wasn't scum with Prohawk. But if people weren't buying Prohawk as scum in the first place, why would I even flip him rather than go for a sweep?

3. Smart just doesn't have the same energy/activity that I do to win the game.

You can say that I'd have to push hard as either alignment but what's ideal to do as scum and what I'm capable of doing as scum are two completely different things. Smart is coasting, only popping in from time to time afraid that he'd say something that might give him away. The entirety of D3 while I looked for every indication that Dun might be town, Smart barely did anything and let us push each other while he sat back. It's classic scum.

4. I was a whole lot more pro-active and spontaneous than Smart ever was.

I was posting my thoughts as I read through the game. I said I wanted to lynch Prohawk as early as my second post a few hours upon replacing in. I immediately called Dun scum D3 where Smart waited for everyone to take a stand first. If you're reading both of our posts as townish, know that mine are much, much more difficult to fake. I'd also encourage you to read every single lylo I've been in, scum and town and see the incredible level of difference there.

5. Smart has been known to bus in a fairly high percentage of his scumgames.

It's fairly routine for him. To counter this point, he brought up examples where he townread his partner. That's meaningless because no one busses every single game. My point is more that he

can

bus, not that he never, ever townreads his partners. In fact, more often than not, he busses. He also makes a very arbitrary argument that he wouldn't bus a single partner. In normal circumstances with town power roles, that might be a bad idea but like I pointed out in #1 and #2 above, bussing here gives him a very clear path to victory so it makes perfect sense to bus here. Not bussing at this point would have been disastrous. I'd like you to really think about what other options a scum-Smart had here at the time of my replace in. Then think about whether those options would be more likely to net him a win after I voted Prohawk than the bussing option.

6. Smart's vote on Prohawk betrayed additional information.

Voting Prohawk over me when he was considering a me/Gamma possibility while also thinking that neither of me/Dun make sense as a Prohawk partner. This was a hasty vote and in his haste to beat me to a Prohawk vote to look good, he didn't realize that if he were town with the reads he claimed to have, he would not be so quick to vote Prohawk at this point.

---

So, against all of this, what do we have for me:

1. That Tenshii voted Prohawk early on, engaged him, then reading through Prohawk's emotional, aggressive posts, decided that Prohawk was town after all. This isn't any different from how Tenshii treated Secret Agent Jin (or anyone else really). His style has been to push and prod people, get a read and back off if they came across as town. The main case was made by Jaack but even Jaack recognized that he could be wrong in 483 saying that "The more I thought about it, the more I felt that ProHawk's attitude toward me felt like scum caught for the wrong reasons." Except, he thought it was Dun rather than Smart.

2. That if I were scum and the secondary suspect after Dun, I'd have to do something D3 to make myself look town. To be perfectly frank, if I were scum, I'd have taken that mislynch asap and then argued against Smart. But I don't expect you to believe that because you only have my word for it. It's fine if you don't believe me but that still makes it null as you said yourself. I think the real tell is that combing through the game and faking analysis on every single page is not something I would enjoy doing and I wouldn't waste hours and hours of my free time doing it. Actually analyzing the game as town is a different matter.

If there's literally anything else, you're going to have to bring it up because you said you wanted to vote me at the beginning of the day. I hope you changed your mind and are ready to vote Smart at this point. If not, bring up what other concerns you have.

[Something_Smart]

@Ms Columbo

I just want to apologize for my activity in the past month. It definitely wasn't what it should have been and I wish I could have devoted more time to this game so that we might not be in this position.

That said, if BlackVoid gets the win because his activity was better than mine, I'm going to be pissed. Because he's using a classic scum tactic in LYLO: to throw tons and tons of information at the confirmed town, and basically overwhelm them with argument. When you get down to it, most of his points are either fabricated or seriously exaggerated and supported by a decent amount of misrepresentation. But I'm afraid that you are going to decide in his favor because you think he deserves it more, or because you wouldn't feel bad losing to him after everything he's said.

But he doesn't deserve to win; I deserve to win, because I'm town and have made that as evident as I can in all of my posts thus far. And you deserve to win, because you were on the right track at the beginning of the day.

BlackVoid's checklist is equal parts twisting around the events to make them appear in his favor and ascribing motivation and meaning to things that don't have it. 1 and 2 massively simplify a complex situation into a few factors that happen to, when stated the way he states them, support his argument. 3 and 4 are bullshit, 3 being an appeal to the "deserve to win" trap that I mentioned before and 4 is something almost impossible to measure. 6 is also bullshit, making the assumption that my reads have to all be connected and that just because I used the matrix to support my scumhunting, that I must have every read predicated on the matrix-- when in fact I just found ProHawk's posts scummy.

5 is bad statistics, which I thought I made clear before, but it seems like he's continuing to push it. Data can be interpreted in any number of ways, and BV's selecting the ways that support his conclusion, rather than the ways that make the most sense. It doesn't make sense to analyze larges, and while it's true that I have bussed in games with a 2-man scumteam, it doesn't support the conclusion that I am likely to bus, and certainly not the conclusion that my lynching scum makes me more likely scum. Then he redirects to point 2.

I'm going to be honest: I want this game to be over. But just as badly (if not more), I want to win, so if you're intending to vote me, please tell me why so I can do my best to change your mind.

[BlackVoid]

@Columbo - I know you've been going over the game with a fine-toothed comb and seriously trying to do justice to this game. Smart's implication that you'd be "overwhelmed" with information isn't true. He's almost implying that you'd be unable to parse good information from bad. I think you are perfectly capable of parsing information and taking everything into consideration. In fact, lylo is the time when you need to throw everything out there, be completely 100% transparent and hide nothing which is what I'm doing. Unlike Smart, I don't believe that you are incapable enough of solving the game that everything needs to be dumbed down.

I'm not saying you should vote Smart because I "deserve" the win although I certainly do way more than him. I'm saying that for people like me and Smart who prefer playing as town, activity level can be alignment-indicative. When you enjoy gamesolving and putting together puzzle pieces, it's a lot easier to post a ton but when you draw scum and need to plan out every single thing you say so as to not slip, activity level tends to decrease a lot. Smart has never tried to gamesolve past D2. All he did was let town go after themselves and offer apologies for his low level of content.

I strongly believe that every mafia game is solvable if there's enough information on the table. The more closely you analyze the game, and the deeper you look, the more evident it will be who scum is. I've been encouraging you to read the re-read the game, look at my behavior in lylo as town and scum, see who had the motive to bus. Smart just wants you to end it because he knows the deeper you look into it, the more likely it is that he'll get exposed.

In his last post, you'll notice that he didn't address any of the salient points I made choosing instead to handwave them away by calling them bullshit and trying to sound sincere. He doesn't have an answer. He knows that all the evidence is stacked against him so he throws out vague generalities like "situation is complex." But analyzing that complexity is part of what wins games. Read into it closely and see who would win if they bussed at that point and who would have been shooting themselves in the foot. It's easy to say "I just found Prohawk's posts scummy" to handwave away the fact that Prohawk had only two possible partners and if he didn't think either fit, he wouldn't have been so confident. And if he thought I could be scum with Gamma, he should have been voting me especially given how solidly he was scumreading Tenshii.

The only way we're going to win this game is you explain thoroughly exactly where you are at, what arguments you agree with, what you disagree with and we have a back and forth dialogue. All the evidence points towards Smart and I'll do my best to show you exactly why if you are not yet convinced. But you need to give me the chance to do it. My job as not-confirmed town is to be as transparent as I can. Don't ignore everything that points towards Smart as scum and decide in his favor because "Tenshii backed off of Prohawk." The notion is laughable. I've done everything possible to show that I'm town with actual facts and evidence rather than meaningless rhetoric. Please don't let me down here.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 4.2

Votecount 4.1

[1] Something_Smart: BlackVoid
[0] Ms Columbo
[1] BlackVoid: Something_Smart

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Ms Columbo

3 players are alive and 2 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-01-22 21:00:00)

[BlackVoid]

But he doesn't deserve to win; I deserve to win, because I'm town and have made that as evident as I can in all of my posts thus far. And you deserve to win, because you were on the right track at the beginning of the day.

This by the way is 100% pure emotional manipulation. Funny thing is, I think he believes he played well enough as scum to deserve the win. The part about making it evident he's town is false. It actually applies to me. He's been coasting since the point it seemed like he had two lynches set in stone after Prohawk. You obviously deserve to win but won't win with him because he's scum. The appeal to you being on the right track is hilarious in light of what I mentioned earlier about people being attached to their initial reads and wanting to be right. He's trying to obfuscate the facts and evidence through manipulation.

[BlackVoid]

If you need further proof that Smart has not been spontaneous and only posting the minimum amount necessary, just look at the timing of his posting patterns by ISO'ing him in reverse and seeing the dates that he posted:

Tue Jan 17th (one post)
Sun Jan 15th (he made two posts one of which was fluff)
Fri Jan 13th (one post)
Thu Jan 12th (one post)
Tue Jan 10th (one post)
Sun Jan 8th (one post)

That's it for D4. His posting pattern looks like he's trying to avoid being prodded by posting once every two days. Now look at D3:

Fri Jan 6th (one post)
Wed Jan 4th (one post)
Mon Jan 2nd (one post)
Sat Dec 31st (one substantial post + 1 fluff saying he'll get to it that night)
Thu Dec 29th (one fluff post)
Tue Dec 27th (one post)
Thu Dec 22nd (one post)
Tue Dec 20th (one post)

That's it for D3. In light of that, please see how his "I've done everything to show that I'm town" rings like hollow rhetoric. He's basically telling you what he thinks you want to hear. He never went V/LA which is what someone would do when they are legitimately busy. Instead he constantly posts hollow apologies for why he's unable to contribute.

This is because taking a V/LA when you don't need it is as good as lying to the mod and is highly unethical.

But simply saying he's busy is the sort of vague excuse that scum can use to lurk it out. If he was legit busy, he'd go on V/LA and post when he can. He wouldn't have a posting rate that's deviously designed to avoid prods by posting once roughly every 48 hours. This is so ridiculous I'm kicking myself for not catching it on D3 and lynching Dun instead.

[BlackVoid]

And if he believed any of the nonsense he's spewing about not "overloading you with information," he'd have been transparent about it and just say that he's prod-dodging and waiting for you to make a decision. But he isn't. Because prod-dodging looks bad. He wants to make it seem like he's engaged without actually being engaged. That this extended all the way through D3 is actually an even bigger tell because he just wanted us to lynch Dun quickly and then me without much effort on his part.

[callforjudgement]

Ms Columbo and Something_Smart have been prodded.

[Something_Smart]

But he doesn't deserve to win; I deserve to win, because I'm town and have made that as evident as I can in all of my posts thus far. And you deserve to win, because you were on the right track at the beginning of the day.

This by the way is 100% pure emotional manipulation. Funny thing is, I think he believes he played well enough as scum to deserve the win. The part about making it evident he's town is false. It actually applies to me. He's been coasting since the point it seemed like he had two lynches set in stone after Prohawk. You obviously deserve to win but won't win with him because he's scum. The appeal to you being on the right track is hilarious in light of what I mentioned earlier about people being attached to their initial reads and wanting to be right. He's trying to obfuscate the facts and evidence through manipulation.

It's emotional, yes; that's how I feel about the game. But it's not manipulation, it's just true.

Sun Jan 15th (he made two posts one of which was fluff)

BV claimed I said something that I didn't say. I pointed it out, and now the post in which I did so is labeled "fluff."

He never went V/LA which is what someone would do when they are legitimately busy. Instead he constantly posts hollow apologies for why he's unable to contribute.

This is because taking a V/LA when you don't need it is as good as lying to the mod and is highly unethical.

But simply saying he's busy is the sort of vague excuse that scum can use to lurk it out. If he was legit busy, he'd go on V/LA and post when he can. He wouldn't have a posting rate that's deviously designed to avoid prods by posting once roughly every 48 hours. This is so ridiculous I'm kicking myself for not catching it on D3 and lynching Dun instead.

"Deviously designed to avoid prods." Obviously I'm trying to avoid prods. And in case you didn't notice, my activity has been bad for a month. I can't go V/LA for a month, so cut the crap about me obviously not being legit busy.

And if he believed any of the nonsense he's spewing about not "overloading you with information," he'd have been transparent about it and just say that he's prod-dodging and waiting for you to make a decision. But he isn't. Because prod-dodging looks bad. He wants to make it seem like he's engaged without actually being engaged. That this extended all the way through D3 is actually an even bigger tell because he just wanted us to lynch Dun quickly and then me without much effort on his part.

I don't believe in prod-dodging. You're equating two different things-- providing

any

content at all and providing massive amounts of content. I am giving what I think to be necessary. You are giving what you think to be sufficient to sway Ms Columbo on the basis of quantity rather than quality of points.

Pedit: goddammit cfj

[BlackVoid]

@Columbo - I hope all is well on your end and the Ice Storm subsided. Hopefully, you show up tonight. There are a couple of things I'd like to bring up for you to consider.

I understand why you might be tempted to vote for me. Both Smart and I pushed and voted Prohawk so you know for sure that scum bussed. Jaack and Dun who have been in the game from the start both suspected me more than Smart so you feel that as a more recent replacement, if you are undecided on who to lynch, honoring their last wishes would better reflect the will of the town. There are three major problems with that approach.

The first is that if Jaack was alive right now and been able to read the arguments I posted against Smart, he may well have changed his mind. Instead of sheeping his read, try and see what his read is based on. Basically it comes down to him thinking that Prohawk and Tenshii pushing each other early and then backing off could point towards scumteam interactions and he got it into his head that that was the team. However, if you see Jaack's latest posts, you'll notice that he recognized that Smart's D3 has been "blah" and he was slowly catching on to him. Dun and I went into an unfortunate mutual tunnel but those are the sort of interactions that are often town vs town while scum coasts - which is exactly what happened here. Smart hung back and let me attack Dun and face the full blast of getting tunneled back.

The second issue is that mafia is a game where every player is responsible for making their own decisions. You are the one here in lylo. You are my teammate here and it's you I need to work with in order to secure the win for town. Jaack and Dun never saw the arguments I brought up against Smart. They are no longer in the game. I can't interact with them anymore. They can't judge the content that Smart and I have brought up this game day. You can. They don't need you to sheep the reads they had before the mass of content that's been posted today. They need you to give your very best effort into solving the game.

The third point I want to bring up is that I'm town just like Jaack and Dun. I've been busy but mafia is one of my favorite hobbies and it's hard to not get addicted. I've given this game everything I've got. I've woken up in the middle of the night at odd hours every night for the past week hoping to catch you in real time so we can work together and go over any issues or questions you may have regarding my play. For those three reasons, I don't think it would fair to rule tossups in Smart's favor, and rather than decide to hand him the game because you are on the fence and might as well go with Jaack's and Dun's decision, I hope you give me a fair chance here. I always wind up being the person everyone scumreads close to lylo. The person who got lynched the day before lylo almost always thinks I'm scum. It's almost tiring how wrongly people read me and I'm hoping this time will be different.

[BlackVoid]

But I don't think it's a tossup at all. I've brought up a lot of evidence that highlights Smart's scum motivations and I definitely think I've done my job as the non-confirmed townie to show you that he's way more likely scum than not, the standard of proof you asked for.

Smart is trying to scare you away from analyzing the game deeply by complaining about the quantity of information. I don't expect you to be overwhelmed by a few walls given how thorough you've been this game. What I hope you will do is actually analyze the quality of the content I brought up. Read my checklist really, really closely and talk to me about the points I've made.

The core of the game comes down to this really: you know from your POV that scum bussed. Given the situation at that time, who stood more to gain by bussing than by allying with Prohawk and mislynching townies? Prohawk could only have three possible partners (me, Dun, and Smart). Scum needed two mislynches to win. Dun and I were both linked to Prohawk leaving Smart to bus and take both mislynches to win. The alternative where he doesn't bus means that the mislynches are no longer guaranteed and makes it harder for him to win especially since he himself might have been lynched before Prohawk - something that doesn't apply to me. I'd

never

be lynched before Prohawk the way D2 turned out simply because anyone who scumread me would have to lynch Prohawk first as he fit into more scumteams and since quite a few people townread him, that was unlikely. Me subbing in for Tenshii turned the tables against him a bit and made him a likely lynch. When Tenshii was in the game and townreading Prohawk, Smart never voted him - only distanced. But when

I

replaced in and said I'd lynch Prohawk, Smart immediately puts down a vote.

Then there's the plethora of other stuff like his illogical vote on Prohawk while calling out a me/Gamma scumteam which shows he's going out of his way to look like he's uninformed. There's his voting Prohawk despite saying neither of the two possible partners make sense which shows he knows too much. There's also him having Prohawk as his #2 scumread, the place where scum normally puts their buddies - the place where

he

normally puts his buddies and not voting him until after I replaced in. Contrast that with me replacing in and immediately within a few hours, having Prohawk as my #1 scumread. I simply caught scum. If you look at my ISO, you'll see my posts have not come from the perspective of someone with additional info or from someone who was trying to distance and bus at the opportune time. Then there's his prod-dodging and posting content because he feels like he has to put up the image of doing so just long enough for you to cave in his favor.

I hope you see through all this and see that I'm town and Smart is scum. If you need more time, I'm sure you can ask the mods for an additional 3-4 days on account of the storm. We have less than two days left currently. But I'd much rather you actually take the time rather than be hasty because the game's gone on too long and you just want to end it. Other than that, let me know if there's a time you are free where we talk in real time.