Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Ms Columbo]

Guys, I must again apologize. I didn't intend to drag this out like this. When I have the time, I take way too long reading and analyzing and then run out time. Like right now, I have to get ready for work. My best intentions fall flat.

I have questions for both of you. When I get home this evening, I will post them. I will not vote until you both have a chance to answer. I appreciate the effort both of you have made. I am sorry I could not be more involved this past week.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 4.3

Votecount 4.3

[1] Something_Smart: BlackVoid
[0] Ms Columbo
[1] BlackVoid: Something_Smart

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Ms Columbo

3 players are alive and 2 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-01-22 21:00:00)

[BlackVoid]

Like I said, I don't care about "dragging out." What I care about is making sure you engage with all of the points I brought up before time runs out. It's not that you "ask questions" to both of us, read the answers, then decide to vote. I'd like you to state where you are at arguments-wise, what you agree with, what you don't, etc so I can help you with the decision by walking you through it. I want to see you explain where you intend to vote and why. You are acting like you need to keep it a secret which way you are leaning until you vote. You don't. Every post you make, I'd prefer you say exactly what you are thinking. You are not doing me a favor by trying to rush the decision. I can keep going until you feel very, very confident that you are making the right decision. I've made two lylo calls on this site so far and both times, I only voted until I was absolutely sure that I was right and I was. The one time I voted before I was certain was when I had to choose between Dun and Smart and we know how that turned out.

@Mods

, can we have a 72 hour extension on account for the fact that there was an ice storm in most of the United States over the weekend?

[BlackVoid]

In other words, in your next post, if you could please say, a) which way you intend to vote right now with reasoning why, and b) what time you are available to have a real time discussion, I'd very much appreciate that. Thanks.

[BlackVoid]

And please take every bit of time you need and "drag it out" as long you you think you need until you have confidence that you are picking right. Don't feel like you have to apologize for taking your time and "dragging it out." You don't. Don't give in Smart pressuring you to end this. You have not been here for most of these two weeks so of course you didn't have the time to sort through our alignment. You haven't had a chance to engage us even once in nearly twelve days. It's not your fault there was a storm. So, please take an extension, set down a time and talk to me about where you at and don't give in to his artificial "it's been so long, end it already" bullshit. It would have been a different thing if you were actually here talking to us during this lylo.

The most pathetic thing I've seen happen in lylos are quickvotes. For example in a very recent game I followed:

Spoiler:

I've just been here watching you guys waste your time from bed since I'm already sure of who I'm voting.

VOTE: Formerfish

The above were the only posts that the conftown made in lylo. It was over in eight hours with a very predictable scum win. So, take your time. Run me through what's going on in your mind in-depth. I think I've made as good a case as I possibly can without knowing what's going on in your mind and shown you every single piece of evidence that points towards Smart as scum and me as town. There's a massive mountain of it. All I can do now is wait to see where you are at and address your concerns.

[BlackVoid]

I don't get how you can say you can appreciate "both" of our efforts when Smart's "effort" literally consists of making half-heated responses to my points every two days and handwaving it away as "oh, that's complicated" when there's really clear and convincing evidence. He has

barely

put in any effort into the game since Prohawk got lynched.

[Ms Columbo]

Damn, I'm not sure this game is meant to end. Family emergency, don't know yet if I will need to travel. Will know more in the morning.

[BlackVoid]

I'm sorry to hear that. Hope all is well. No hard feelings if you do wind up needing to replace out. Real life always comes first. But if you can continue, I'd really suggest asking for an extension as we only have a little over a day left, and we never had a chance to interact in this lylo at all, partly due to the storm.

[BlackVoid]

@Smart,

Given it's morning and Columbo hasn't responded, I'm assuming she needed to leave. I've asked in this thread as well as PM'd Creature yesterday for an extension. He saw my message but seems to have ignored both requests even though I think the circumstances warrant the deadline being paused.

Here's the situation as I see it:

1. Columbo will somehow return and continue to play. If she has the time to ask questions and such, that would be helpful but I'm not banking on it.
2. Someone new will replace in and the deadline will be extended. There's a more than a decent chance they vote against you.
3. Deadline expires.

I'm just going to talk to you in an alignment-neutral way because it would be impossible to have a conversation otherwise:

For whichever of us is town, #3 would be a terrible outcome and they wouldn't want to lose that way. For whichever of us is scum, #2 is a pretty bad outcome because more often than not, new replacements come in with fresh perspectives of the game and can undo everything that the scum worked for. In fact, I think it's very likely that a new replacement will vote correctly given only people that like solving games will replace into 3-way and whoever is scum has not had the opportunity to play to them. That just leaves option #1 which I'm not sure we can bank on. Given the game will end before Columbo needs to be prodded in 48 hours and a further 24 hours before the mods look for a replacement, I don't know what's going to happen there. Game ends tomorrow at 4PM PST.

I'm impressed by your D1 and D2 play. We've been around this game day even when Columbo wasn't and have been presenting arguments at least. Winning because of a last minute replacement or expiration of the deadline isn't fulfilling. So here's my proposal, do you want to draw the game? That way we can both say we haven't lost this one after how well we played.

[Something_Smart]

I would be okay with that if the mod allows it, assuming Ms Columbo doesn't return and place a vote before deadline.

[BlackVoid]

So, yes or no? I want this game out of my mind now. If no, then I'm going to bug the listmod to do something about it.

[BlackVoid]

Never mind, misread your post. I PM'd Creature. Going to PM callforjudgement as well asking if they'll allow it.

[BlackVoid]

PM'd CFJ. Basically I don't want Columbo to make a rushed decision tonight. I asked him if we can either draw the game right now, or if he could give us a long extension (maybe five days) and/or a replacement because we lost several days due to the storm and now Columbo's emergency.

[callforjudgement]

I'd say an emergency V/LA near deadline from a confirmed townie who's making the lylo decision is a pretty good reason to suspend the deadline.

The deadline is suspended until Ms Columbo comes back or her prod timer expires. The moderators will decide what to do about the deadline then, based on how things turn out. (And to Ms Columbo: I very much hope everything turns out all right with your family! That's much more important than a Mafia game.)

[Ms Columbo]

I’m back. Friday night I had literally just sat down to post when I got a call from the hospital in my home town. My mom fell and broke her hip. They couldn’t get ahold of my sister, who lives there. I live 7 hours away. My mom has dementia and is not fully cognizant to determine her medical treatment. Long story short, she had surgery late Saturday afternoon. It went well. But there is a lot of concern because the last time she had surgery, the whole ordeal seemed to exacerbate the memory issues. I appreciate the well wishes and thanks for understanding.

This is actually a nice distraction at the moment.

[Ms Columbo]

First some general thoughts:

I am not placing much consideration on past games. First and foremost, I wasn’t there at the time (it makes a difference). And second, I didn’t see any standouts from the ones I examined. ISO's in unfamiliar games omit too much context.

I am also not faulting Smart for his participation on D3. Could he have posted more? Yes. But if I’m town and I believe Dun is the last scum (like all the town in the game did) I don’t see the reason to try to find the scum game in a player I presume to be town (assuming I’ve done due diligence to re-evaluate my position). IMO Smart did that. I’ve played in several games where scum struggled to post and I just don’t see obvious scum in this case. Now having said that, BV’s play D3 felt more town than Smart’s.

I’m also not overly concerned about which of you voted or indicated FOS on PH first. I can see town and scum motivation for both of your votes/FOS (as far as when they occurred). The net result is a wash.

I’ll start new posts of my thoughts/questions for both of you.

[BlackVoid]

@Columbo, glad to hear things went well.

On your most recent post: it's not that Smart "could have posted more," it's that while me and Dun were trying to figure out the game, his lack of posting betrayed that he just wanted it over with. I don't know how many games you've played but it's way more likely for scum to coast along than town.

The situation around Prohawk is also not as simple as which of us voted or indicated a FOS on Prohawk first. I think the point being missed is to look at who had motivation to bus Prohawk at the time and I don't see how you arrived at "the net result is a wash" from the evidence I posted.

[BlackVoid]

If this is what you came up with after two weeks, it's literally just pissing me off. But please continue with the rest of it.

[Ms Columbo]

I made most of these notes offline, I think I managed to link most of them.

@BV

I think you’ve played a hell of a game since you subbed in. If it wasn’t down to you vs another player, I wouldn’t be considering you possible scum. What I don’t know is if this is your honest town game or if I’m being played. Honestly, it does feel like you’re attempting to overwhelm and confuse the situation. I was thinking that before Smart mentioned it. I’ve seen scum do this all too well. Much of your play makes a lot of sense as town and seems genuine, but then there are pings that seem like you are exaggerating/bending/twisting the facts to make your case.

Such as:
Near the start of D3 you said of Tenshii: “he seemed town to me gut-wise, just easygoing and off-the-cuff” and you say something similar later in a more thorough examination of Tenshii’s posts. At that point you ask Smart why he was scum reading Tenshii.

At the start of D4, that read ratchets up: In post #600 you say: "I don't know why he was being scumread but he was super town to me right from the beginning". A couple of posts later you say:
“There is nothing at all scummy about Tenshii's posts.” And in the same post “I was overwhelmingly reading Tenshii as town even before I saw his role PM.”

These latter descriptions are much stronger than your initial assessment. It feels like your trying too hard to make this argument. Town doesn’t need to exaggerate. Multiple players thought Tenshii was scummy at one point or another. Saying “There is nothing at all scummy about Tenshii's posts.” Is a unnecessary (and false) over-exaggeration.

You also over-exaggerating in your assessment on Smart on D4: (emphasis added)
“On his activity level,

everytime he posted

, it seemed like a chore for him which is mostly indicative of him just wanting the day over with so he could get his lynches and win.”


In #604 – you say of Smart: “Yet, he never once calls me scum on D3.”

Did you ever call Smart scum on D3? Both of you at one point or another stated suspicion of the other. But you both seemed to be reading Dun scum and ergo the other town.


#558 – In your analysis of Smart’s vote on PH in post #432 you said “ZZZX also expressed mild suspicion of Prohawk”. Where did ZZZX do that?

This is also leads to an example where it seems like you’re twisting content to fit your argument. Post #639 in regards to your motivation to bus PH you said “Neither Gamma nor Dun backed Jaack on his Prohawk push, and ZZZX's reads were an enigma.”

So Smart might be voting PH because ZZZ (among others) had suspicion on PH but when it comes to yourself, ZZZX’s didn’t have a read on PH??

Or the one that Smart pointed out that you later called his fluff post.

Inconsistencies like these give me pause about you being town.

[Ms Columbo]

@Smart

Why do you think BV voiced FOS on PH and then voted him instead of voting for you or pushing another wagon? Wouldn’t it have been better for scum-BV not to bus his partner?

#439 - I didn’t follow what you said about post #423, regarding where the post came relative to BV’s catch-up. Can you explain that? It may not be relevant at this point, I just didn’t get it.

#500 – In your description of play history, everything you said seems factual. But just looking at your record, it seemed like you down played your ability as scum. You survived to the end in a couple and lasted late game in others (I consider this an indication of ability regardless of the game outcome). This is more an observation than a question. Thoughts?

#606 you re-evaluate BV’s play from a he must-be-scum angle:
“119, which is conspicuous in its being a non-interaction, where ProHawk makes a readlist but doesn't include Tenshii. (He does, incidentally, include my predecessor, placed in a null area where he would certainly know not to place his scumbuddy.”

That post was in regards to Jaack’s plan of lynching one of {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel}. Why would he include Tenshii?

Later in that 606: "181, where Tenshii jumps off ProHawk and onto my slot. No mention of why he doesn't scumread ProHawk as much,

nor why he scumreads ArcAngel more.

"

(Emphasis added) In the next post Tenshii explains his take on ArcAngle

These posts stuck out as being troublesome.

[BlackVoid]

I made most of these notes offline, I think I managed to link most of them.

@BV

I think you’ve played a hell of a game since you subbed in. If it wasn’t down to you vs another player, I wouldn’t be considering you possible scum. What I don’t know is if this is your honest town game or if I’m being played. Honestly, it does feel like you’re attempting to overwhelm and confuse the situation. I was thinking that before Smart mentioned it. I’ve seen scum do this all too well. Much of your play makes a lot of sense as town and seems genuine, but then there are pings that seem like you are exaggerating/bending/twisting the facts to make your case.

You kept saying that you were reading everything so I was under the impression that you actually were. If I had known that you were being overwhelmed or confused, I would have tried to explain things in simpler terms. Part of the reason I had to post so much is because you posted barely anything and I had no idea where you were at with your decision. I did think that you had a good idea what was going on though. It seemed like I was talking to a wall the whole time.

Such as:
Near the start of D3 you said of Tenshii: “he seemed town to me gut-wise, just easygoing and off-the-cuff” and you say something similar later in a more thorough examination of Tenshii’s posts. At that point you ask Smart why he was scum reading Tenshii.

At the start of D4, that read ratchets up: In post #600 you say: "I don't know why he was being scumread but he was super town to me right from the beginning". A couple of posts later you say:
“There is nothing at all scummy about Tenshii's posts.” And in the same post “I was overwhelmingly reading Tenshii as town even before I saw his role PM.”

These latter descriptions are much stronger than your initial assessment. It feels like your trying too hard to make this argument. Town doesn’t need to exaggerate. Multiple players thought Tenshii was scummy at one point or another. Saying “There is nothing at all scummy about Tenshii's posts.” Is a unnecessary (and false) over-exaggeration.

Just because other people found Tenshii scummy doesn't mean there was anything scummy about him. I was always townreading Tenshii. It's possible I had more convinction in my later posts because I re-read his posts to make sure that there wasn't anything that could reasonably be considered scummy. The first time I mentioned Tenshii, I had only read the game once so I must not have come across as so confident.

You also over-exaggerating in your assessment on Smart on D4: (emphasis added)
“On his activity level,

everytime he posted

, it seemed like a chore for him which is mostly indicative of him just wanting the day over with so he could get his lynches and win.”

I'm not? I literally posted a list of all the times Smart posted during D3 and D4. He never once posted when he didn't have to. Almost every single time he posted, he was just about to hit the prod-timer. Can you point out a single time he posted D3 or D4 where he didn't have to and just had something on his mind, or a question, or he wanted to gamesolve? It's always to avoid a prod. Every single time. I think there is about one post where there's a 24 hour gap and one other post about Trump that he posted the same day. So yeah, I don't think it's an exaggeration at all to say that he didn't really

want

to post. Just look at 644.

In #604 – you say of Smart: “Yet, he never once calls me scum on D3.”

Did you ever call Smart scum on D3? Both of you at one point or another stated suspicion of the other. But you both seemed to be reading Dun scum and ergo the other town.

I had to go back and look at the context to see what you were talking about. I think you are misunderstanding my point. It's not about whether I also called him scum. The point is, he said "one of the reasons I think I thought it was Dunhallym was because I didn't think that I'd get both scum immediately upon replacing in." That's a ridiculous reason to suddenly think it was me. If that's what he genuinely was thinking, he'd be exploring the options of both me and Dun. But he didn't. It was mostly just pushing Dun along with everyone else and re-iterating our suspicion of her but in a more under-the-radar way.

As far as what I was doing, I was completely 100% transparent with what I was thinking during all of D3. There were times when I suspected that it was Smart, I've asked him questions and told him to respond to my re-read of the game, and ultimately was swayed by his "reaction test" on Prohawk and early call out of Dun where he pushed her based on how she pushed ssbm_kyouko.

#558 – In your analysis of Smart’s vote on PH in post #432 you said “ZZZX also expressed mild suspicion of Prohawk”. Where did ZZZX do that?

I was referring to post 424. On a re-read, the suspicion was very mild though so I'm not sure this is as strong a point as I originally thought. ZZZX quotes a post from Prohawk and says that he saw scum saying "seems forced" as an argument in nearly every game he played. It certainly seemed to me as if the tide was turning against Prohawk and that if Prohawk was up for lynch, ZZZX might not have put that much effort into stopping it.

This is also leads to an example where it seems like you’re twisting content to fit your argument. Post #639 in regards to your motivation to bus PH you said “Neither Gamma nor Dun backed Jaack on his Prohawk push, and ZZZX's reads were an enigma.”

So

Smart might be voting PH because ZZZ (among others) had suspicion on PH but when it comes to yourself, ZZZX’s didn’t have a read on PH??

To the bolded, that's correct.

424 is the ZZZX post we're referring to.

The posts where I said I wanted to lynch PH were 418 and 421. Before ZZZX's post.

Smart voted PH in 432 which was after.

Or the one that Smart pointed out that you later called his fluff post.

Inconsistencies like these give me pause about you being town.

I called his post "fluff" because there was no game advancing content in his post. He corrected a difference in semantics. I misread his initial post as "my vote was the most important one on Prohawk." He corrected me and pointed out that he said "my vote was one of the most important votes on Prohawk." I don't think he was wrong to correct my mistake, but I do think that when I'm trying to explain to you that he's barely posting every two days, the fact that he corrected my post doesn't really count as an additional game-advancing post and is mostly just filler.

[BlackVoid]

Honestly Columbo, you are focusing on things that aren't indicative of alignment. What you should be looking at is who had motivation to bus Prohawk. From your POV, we both voted scum but one of us bussed.

Is Smart's Prohawk vote a gamewinning move if he bussed when he did?

Is my push on Prohawk a gamewinning move if I was scum?

That's what will tell you the difference in alignment.

[BlackVoid]

I know Smart is scum so I'm going to be way more confident in the push now than I was before. "It seems like you are exagerrating" is a red herring really because both of our motivations right now (as town and scum) is to get the other person lynched. So, that's not going to tell you about what alignment we are. Look at our play when another scum was still in the game. Then compare and contrast our play on D3.

[Ms Columbo]

The situation around Prohawk is also not as simple as which of us voted or indicated a FOS on Prohawk first. I think the point being missed is to look at who had motivation to bus Prohawk at the time and I don't see how you arrived at "the net result is a wash" from the evidence I posted.

I totally agree it's not that simple. You've stated why scum-Smart would jump on the wagon when he did and Smart has done the same. If I knew who was on at what time, that could make a difference, but I don't. If Smart had been watching the game all morning is different than if he just joined the game at the time of his post. If Smart is town, it's not his fault his vote for PH fell 40-50 minutes after your intention to vote PH. His last interaction was 24 hours before that.

From a pure progression on time, Smart voted for PH in his first post after PH voted Jack. If Smart is town, he did the towny thing. If you are town, you did the towny thing by waiting until you were caught up to vote. Figuring out what went on in that vote is key, but the semantics of who staked a claim first doesn't tell me much.

Between your first post and the next one where you first voiced suspicion of PH, there was plenty of time to daychat with a scum buddy. If you are scum, questioning where gamma was before you voted could be seen as waiting to see how the tide would fall. But if you're town, it was a perfectly innocent inquiry.

[BlackVoid]

But do you see that as scum, I would have a much easier chance of winning the game if I supported Prohawk rather than bus him?