Micro 667 - Chosen Mafia (Game Over)

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Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #900  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:35 am

Hi, maybe don't lynch anyone in the next ten minutes.

It looks to me like the Mafia is trying to avoid losing via the chosen mechanic. By increasing the number of lynches they increase the probability we'll eventually hit a chosen.

Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Creature
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Post Post #901  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:36 am

Mafia needs to kill the other Chosen Townie so they can kill me.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #902  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:36 am

umlaut you forgot we can cross off creature for our random lynches
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Creature
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Post Post #903  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:37 am

Note that mafia only needs to lynch one Chosen to not lose by the mechanism.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Creature
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Post Post #904  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:38 am

I think I'll most likely stick with TTTT.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #905  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:38 am

^what creature said

anybody hardpushing any other slot is immediately suspicious
now i know i was hardpushing TTTT earlier but w/e, i know he'll come in and do his best to get a lynch on me so whatever, i don't care because when i'm lynched and flip chosen bam powerlynch TTTT tomorrow and win
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #906  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:41 am

dave hardpushing me was badScum doing his best to get a chosen lynch off before he dies so that his partner can carry etc etc etc
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Ümläüt
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Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #907  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:42 am

VOTE: Tenshii

TTTT's jumping on and off Dave wasn't great, but I'd rather lynch this first. Not too committed though, let's take our time and choose right.

Also remember that as long as we lynch non-chosen we're in good shape.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #908  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:43 am

i'm really quite sure tenshii is town

i'd stay and tell you why but i'm really quite sure i need to sleep
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #909  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:45 am

creature rolling chosen was like
insta-death for scum lmao
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Ümläüt
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Post Post #910  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:47 am

In post 896, Human Sequencer wrote:VOTE: TTTT
literally everybody else is town, i reckon TTTT will come out blazing on me today to secure a chosen mislynch so he can then actually win the game (can't endgame chosen townies)

if you're considering lynching me, i recommend no-lynch instead. it's obvious scum has a tactical reason for not killing anybody (need a chosen lynch) and by voting me you're likely just giving scum exactly what they need

This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now? Because I'm not. Or I wasn't, until I saw this.

And on reflection I'm still not considering it seriously. The way they spearheaded the case on Dave, I really don't think it's likely they're scum. But that post is still weird. Where is this defensiveness coming from, Human?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #911  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:49 am

In post 910, Ümläüt wrote:This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now?

TTTT is!

I just know TTTT is scum and know what he'ss planning to do, so I'm pre-emptively shutting it down.
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Human Sequencer
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Post Post #912  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:51 am

In post 898, Human Sequencer wrote:i also invite everybody to analyze TTTT-dave interactions during day 2
Just sharing: https://youtu.be/8L-8b8WVnL8. Updated semi-regularly.
Interpretation is troublesome, intention is pure.

Creature
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Post Post #913  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:52 am

I actually noticed now why nokill was benefitial to scum.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Creature
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Post Post #914  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:53 am

If scum killed someone, we would be at:
2 chosen townies
1 simple town
1 scum

Aka 50-50 for us. Assuming we treat me as conf!Chosen, that'd be 67-33 for us.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Creature
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Post Post #915  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:53 am

I don't think Tenshii would've noticed that, so he's probtown.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

TTTT
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Post Post #916  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:55 am

In post 901, Creature wrote:Mafia needs to kill the other Chosen Townie so they can kill me.


^this

the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2
not sure why human thinks I'm gunning for them

Ümläüt
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Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #917  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:27 pm

In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut

Explain?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Ümläüt
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Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #918  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:29 pm

I mean, if we believe Creature and Human are chosen, and we're right, then we win just by not lynching them.

I'm more convinced about Creature than Human, to be honest. It seems almost too convenient for the two chosen to be the two people I was already townreading the most when I entered the game.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

TTTT
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Post Post #919  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:36 pm

In post 917, Ümläüt wrote:
In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut

Explain?

Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2

...and Creature would be dead if scum could kill him = confChosen

Ümläüt
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Post Post #920  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:44 pm

Fair enough.

I mean, I'm pretty sure it's not me though.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Creature
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Post Post #921  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:48 pm

Either Tenshii is scum, Human and I aren't both Chosen or scum is hoping in the off-chance we decide to lynch Human.
I might misgender you, if I do, it's probably because your avatar looks girly.

Ümläüt
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Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #922  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:04 pm

If we take Creature as chosen, then with two otherwise random lynches we have a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and a 1/6 chance of hitting both regular townies, so 2/3 chance to win.

@Mod What happens if both factions refuse to kill?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Ümläüt
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Joined: October 26, 2015
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Post Post #923  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:04 pm

Oh wait, it's plurality lynch, never mind.
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

Ümläüt
Mafia Scum
 
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Joined: October 26, 2015
Location: Austin, TX
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Post Post #924  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:05 pm

@Mod What happens if no one votes?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”

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