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Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:35 am
by Ümläüt
Hi, maybe don't lynch anyone in the next ten minutes.
It looks to me like the Mafia is trying to avoid losing via the chosen mechanic. By increasing the number of lynches they increase the probability we'll eventually hit a chosen.
Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:36 am
by Creature
Mafia needs to kill the other Chosen Townie so they can kill me.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:36 am
by Human Sequencer
umlaut you forgot we can cross off creature for our random lynches
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:37 am
by Creature
Note that mafia only needs to lynch one Chosen to not lose by the mechanism.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:38 am
by Creature
I think I'll most likely stick with TTTT.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:38 am
by Human Sequencer
^what creature said
anybody hardpushing any other slot is immediately suspicious
now i know i was hardpushing TTTT earlier but w/e, i know he'll come in and do his best to get a lynch on me so whatever, i don't care because when i'm lynched and flip chosen bam powerlynch TTTT tomorrow and win
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:41 am
by Human Sequencer
dave hardpushing me was badScum doing his best to get a chosen lynch off before he dies so that his partner can carry etc etc etc
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:42 am
by Ümläüt
VOTE: Tenshii
TTTT's jumping on and off Dave wasn't great, but I'd rather lynch this first. Not too committed though, let's take our time and choose right.
Also remember that as long as we lynch non-chosen we're in good shape.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:43 am
by Human Sequencer
i'm really quite sure tenshii is town
i'd stay and tell you why but i'm really quite sure i need to sleep
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:45 am
by Human Sequencer
creature rolling chosen was like
insta-death for scum lmao
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:47 am
by Ümläüt
In post 896, Human Sequencer wrote:VOTE: TTTT
literally everybody else is town, i reckon TTTT will come out blazing on me today to secure a chosen mislynch so he can then actually win the game (can't endgame chosen townies)
if you're considering lynching me, i recommend no-lynch instead. it's obvious scum has a tactical reason for not killing anybody (need a chosen lynch) and by voting me you're likely just giving scum exactly what they need
This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now? Because I'm not. Or I wasn't, until I saw this.
And on reflection I'm still not considering it seriously. The way they spearheaded the case on Dave, I really don't think it's likely they're scum. But that post is still weird. Where is this defensiveness coming from, Human?
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:49 am
by Human Sequencer
In post 910, Ümläüt wrote:
This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now?
TTTT is!
I just know TTTT is scum and know what he'ss planning to do, so I'm pre-emptively shutting it down.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:51 am
by Human Sequencer
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:52 am
by Creature
I actually noticed now why nokill was benefitial to scum.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:53 am
by Creature
If scum killed someone, we would be at:
2 chosen townies
1 simple town
1 scum
Aka 50-50 for us. Assuming we treat me as conf!Chosen, that'd be 67-33 for us.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:53 am
by Creature
I don't think Tenshii would've noticed that, so he's probtown.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:55 am
by TTTT
^this
the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2
not sure why human thinks I'm gunning for them
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:27 am
by Ümläüt
In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Explain?
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:29 am
by Ümläüt
I mean, if we believe Creature and Human are chosen, and we're right, then we win just by not lynching them.
I'm more convinced about Creature than Human, to be honest. It seems almost too convenient for the two chosen to be the two people I was already townreading the most when I entered the game.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:36 am
by TTTT
Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2
...and Creature would be dead if scum could kill him = confChosen
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:44 am
by Ümläüt
Fair enough.
I mean, I'm pretty sure it's not me though.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:48 am
by Creature
Either Tenshii is scum, Human and I aren't both Chosen or scum is hoping in the off-chance we decide to lynch Human.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:04 am
by Ümläüt
If we take Creature as chosen, then with two otherwise random lynches we have a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and a 1/6 chance of hitting both regular townies, so 2/3 chance to win.
@Mod
What happens if both factions refuse to kill?
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:04 am
by Ümläüt
Oh wait, it's plurality lynch, never mind.
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:05 am
by Ümläüt
@Mod
What happens if no one votes?