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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:10 pm
by Creature
I think your slot's town seeing shaddow had a chance to lynch me but didn't.

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:38 pm
by Ümläüt
So, I think we mostly agree our two candidates today are Tenshii and TTTT.

If Tenshii is scum this makes it more likely that TTTT is chosen; the reverse is not true. So this might indicate we should lynch Tenshii first, to minimize the chance of hitting chosen given that one of these two is scum.

Of course, I'm the one saying this, and the same reasoning says that if I'm scum Tenshii is likely to be chosen. So you might not trust that I'm arguing in good faith.

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:22 pm
by Ümläüt
Wait, I guess if one of them is scum it doesn't matter if the other is chosen as long as we lynch them both.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:47 am
by Human Sequencer
i mean this spec is all pretty well and good (actually really helpful and informative) but on the other hand there's no real reason for it when you could just read everybody in the game who isn't TTTT, realize how town they are, and then realize that we still need one more scum

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:27 am
by TTTT
@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?

Umlaut wants me dead
which more and more makes me think I'm chosen

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:29 am
by Human Sequencer
1. yep

2. nah

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:16 pm
by Ümläüt
In post 954, TTTT wrote:@Human
your theory is that in a two-scum game scum!TTTT hard-pushes his partner then jumps off the wagon and hard-defends after it looks like the lynch is inevitable?

This isn't actually what happened though.
  1. You pushed on Dave d1 but not hard. You said you wanted him turbo-lynched but never voted him.
  2. You voted Dave d2 but only after putting Hiraki to L-1 and only after Dave slipped.
  3. You unvoted Dave (without any new information about Dave) when enough time had passed that he was clearly not being speed-lynched.
  4. You continued to say Dave could be scum while not voting him.
  5. It was not at all obvious that the Dave wagon was going through until he self-hammered.

This can easily be explained as scum distancing from his partner, busing when it suddenly seems to become necessary, then backpedaling from the bus when it turns out not to be necessary after all, but continuing to keep his distance.

Alternately, if you're town, you have much less confidence in your reads than you let on. You were suspicious of Dave from the beginning, but overstated your degree of suspicion. When he slipped, you took this as sufficient reason to join his wagon, but then got cold feet. You argued that this was because he was "probably town" but actually you're just afraid of mislynching.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:16 pm
by Ümläüt
@Mod: would you be so kind as to edit that opening list tag to '[list=1]' for me?

Sure.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:16 pm
by Tenshii
Why is Creature obviously Chosen? I don't think nightkill logic applies here because scum probably planned on no killing.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:17 pm
by Tenshii
In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).

How did you get these odds?

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:19 pm
by Creature
What about N1?

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:54 pm
by Tenshii
Oh. True. Kinda. Idk, if you think you're more NK-worthy than Grendel then sure.

VOTE: TTTT

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:07 pm
by Ümläüt
In post 959, Tenshii wrote:
In post 900, Ümläüt wrote:Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).

How did you get these odds?

  • The set of living players is {M(afia), C(hosen)1, C(hosen)2, T(ownie)1, T(ownie)2}
  • Choosing two lynches means choosing a size-two subset thereof.
  • There are 10 size-two subsets: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}, {C1, C2}, {C1, T1}, {C1, T2}, {C2, T1}, {C2, T2}, {T1, T2}
  • 4 of these hit the mafioso: {M, C1}, {M, C2}, {M, T1}, {M, T2}
  • 1 of these hits both non-chosen: {T1, T2}
So 4/10 = 2/5 probability of hitting the mafioso, and 1/10 chance of hitting both non-chosen.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:08 pm
by Ümläüt
Note that the lynch order doesn't actually matter, except insofar as if we were to lynch a chosen today the Mafia might decide to kill after all which if anything would slightly improve our chances (under the assumption that we were choosing randomly).

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:10 pm
by Ümläüt
TTTT is at L-1

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:00 pm
by TTTT
if I flip Chosen you need to lynch in Umlaut-Human tomorrow
if I flip VT then lynch in Umlaut-Tenshii

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:02 pm
by Creature
tbh I think we should go at Umlaut and Tenshii because they're less likely to be Chosen. Though, I kinda wished we could end the game rn.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:05 pm
by TTTT
before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon
this is bad town blinded by an exotic set-up

Pedit: some sense!

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:14 pm
by Ümläüt
In post 967, TTTT wrote:before I'm lynched
plz show how any of my pushes/votes were beneficial towards a scum wincon

This is your slot, not you, but Misa's push on Creature never really made much sense from a town PoV. Creature's reasoning for suspecting Vedith as chosen was fairly transparent and he had explained it by the time Misa voted.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:34 pm
by Tenshii
In post 966, Creature wrote:Though, I kinda wished we could end the game rn.

We could end the game rn.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:46 pm
by Ümläüt
Is anything else going to happen today?

It seems early to end it, but everyone has posted and no one seems to have anything else they want done. Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name starts with T.

I also think I have a townier record than Tenshii, so I'm not worried about a 1v1 there.

Intent: TTTT

By the way, if TTTT should flip regular townie, the mafia can't NK. Can we all agree that in that case we should just skip the night phase?

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:03 pm
by TTTT
yep, I'm chosen
The two most likely scum both want me dead

@Human
Umlaut is prob scum but look at Tenshii, too

See you in the dead thread Creature

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:08 pm
by Creature
Don't lynch yet.

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:41 pm
by Tenshii
In post 970, Ümläüt wrote:Creature and Human are both pretty obvtown so I'm confident that we win by lynching everyone whose name starts ends with T.

FTFY

PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:49 pm
by Tenshii
Fwiw though I think this will flip scum.