Micro 529: Big Brother 3 Mafia - Game Over!

[Soren]

Fine. I don't really see kaboose as scum anymore, I think he might be town who is misguided, even though his earlier theory still doesn't make a grain of sense to me.

I want notmafia and gale nommed for tomorrow. Notmafia's complete lack of any kind of thoughts in this game is so atypical for him-town and I'm not really familiar with his scumgame. I'd expect him, as town, to at least come in to argue with the ones not scumreading gray. He's not always up for talking about things that don't interest him, but he surely tries to evaluate the viewpoints from those that disagree with him in every game I've seen from him.
Gale because he's extremely manipulatory. I see no town motivation behind the pushes that he is making and the dirt he is throwing on me. He does not explain his points, but he tries to get unnecessary information on the table that can do nothing but help scum. I don't see him evaluating the game in any way that makes townish sense to me.

I have at least light townreads on everyone else but zymf. He's basically been extremely unnoticeable to me and shied away from discussion when he was not being considered for nomination after HoH was elected. He popped in again to place a vote.
I might be wrong about him in which case cityelectric will become my third scum. I like his original content but it's quite thin and he hasn't really explained the thought process behind it that I asked for.
I don't think I'm wrong about flubber or soren or even kaboose for that matter.

Looking at the votes, especially those by notmafia and zymf, I just don't think gray is scum, as day 1 bussing in this setup looks ridiculous to me.

I'm not sure if you are just saying this because you want my reads, soren, or if you really want to hammer me. What I think your considerations should boil down to is this:
First and foremost, do you really believe me to be scum more than gray? If so, hammer me right now and let's stop wasting words.
If you don't, please remove gray. I feel that he is toxic to the gamestate and that we can form a strong townbloc and lock this game up.

Tier posted this read list as I said that I was going to lynch him. Right now I don't know what to make of it other than the fact that the two that tier wanted to get nommed, is now nommed.
I'll look at this again tomorrow with fresh eyes.

[Soren]

Gale I have 0 issue with you nomming me today if it's against notmafia

the trifecta of scum...

[Soren]

I hate when I need to make a decision in lylo.

[Firebringer]

I hate when I need to make a decision in lylo.

Let me make it for you, vote Not Mafia.

[Soren]

@Firebringer

, I'm going to vote for gale. And according to you, he's your town read. And given the game state, it means that town will lose. Are you okay with this?

I can't but see that you deliberately ignored this post, fire.

[Gale Wing Srock]

Soren, what you are doing is. You are assuming I am scum, based on your instinct. And then you are looking at posts, to see if you find me scummy.

Instead of doing that, if you look at the posts (without any bias) and understand what they mean. Then you can figure things out.

Tier, being okay for Not_Mafia, me and Kaboose being nominated doesn't prove anything. Either all three of us are town, that Tier thought he could get a lynch on (after fighting to save himself). Or one of them is mafia, or two of them is mafia.

I know that it can only be All town or two town. But you can't deduce anything from that post, I am surprised you found that as a way of deducing scum in LYLO.

It is definitely an attempt in the right direction, but if you leave the bias you have against me on the side and look at the game for what it is. Then you can better deduce the scum.

I agree that it is either one scum or no scum. But you were too early on your nominations. You could have done this during the nomination stage to figure out both the scums and then nominated them.

Its like, you already made up your mind that I am scum. And you were looking for someone to pair me up with.

Anyways, I have no hope that we will win this game now. Since, you don't even know how to scum hunt in LYLO. *sigh*

Town is going to lose this game, due to Flubber and Soren. GG scums!

[Soren]

Zymf what do you think of Gale's 705?

[pablito]

Responsibilities List

• Head of Household
  Soren will only vote to a break the tie in the case of a 1-1 vote upon the completion of all votes.
• Nominees
  Gale Wing Srock and Not_Mafia must continue discussing until all votes have been placed.[/strike]
• The two eligible players (Firebringer and Zymf) must vote to lynch prior to deadline - 2 votes to lynch. Failure to vote prior to deadline will lead to irrevocable consequences for that player. No further rounds will be processed, as it is assumed that a win condition will be met upon completion of this day phase.

Following Deadline: Fifth player to be evicted by Wednesday 4th Nov 2015 at 9:30 am EDT. (expired on 2015-11-04 09:30:00)

Eviction

Vote Count

Gale Wing Srock (1):

Zymf

Not_Mafia (1):

Firebringer

Still to vote: Soren

With 2 voters, it takes 2 eviction votes to lynch. Once a player achieves 2 eviction votes - no unvotes or vote changes will be allowed. All 2 voters must vote before deadline. Upon the 2nd vote being placed, all votes will be locked.

Mod note: Due to special voting rules and restrictions, the game will continue until an

official

vote count demonstrates that a win condition has been fulfilled.

[Zymf]

At this rate I'm going to nominate gray and tier. If anyone disagrees speak now.

Nom me, fine, but with either kaboose, gale or notmafia.

@Zymf

knowing that tier is scum now, what do you make of this post?

I don't really understand why he was so upset about being nominated with Gray in particular. Especially since both Gray and kaboose flipped town. I think he just wanted to act townish, mark you as scum/bad player and perhaps have gale "blend in" with kaboose and notmafia.

Zymf what do you think of Gale's 705?

I'll get to that in a second ^^

[Zymf]

Soren, what you are doing is. You are assuming I am scum, based on your instinct. And then you are looking at posts, to see if you find me scummy.

True. Soren should, objectively speaking, also try and assume that you are town and see whether this fits you better or not. However, you ARE scum, so personally, I don't mind that Soren might only assume that you are scum

Tier, being okay for Not_Mafia, me and Kaboose being nominated doesn't prove anything. Either all three of us are town, that Tier thought he could get a lynch on (after fighting to save himself). Or one of them is mafia, or two of them is mafia.

I think my explanation, that Tier tried to blend you in with other townies, is a better explanation.

The rest of this post was just random blabbering...

[Soren]

More than just random blabbering. It's ATE, trying to make me feel bad so I will not vote him.

[Gale Wing Srock]

*smh*

[Gale Wing Srock]

I am processing all vote penalties prior to any lynches/evictions. This may mean that any remaining players that are required to vote (ie: Soren) may be turned into a neutral survivor tree-stump before a lynch is processed if that player fails to vote. Therefore, whether there are two mafia nominated for lynch, two town nominated for lynch, or one town and one mafia nominated for lynch, there are enough possibilities for either faction to be eligible to win if there is a failure to vote when required.

MOD,
Now that we have all confirmed that Soren cannot be scum. Lets consider if Soren is town and he has nominated two townies and we have a tie, with Soren to vote for one of the nominees. Will the game be called at the time or not? Since, regardless of Soren choosing to vote or not. Town would lose.

[pablito]

Pretty sure game is going to be called once Soren votes or fails to vote at deadline.

If there's a situation where, according to the rules, there is no possible way for a faction to win based on public knowledge of all flips, then yes the game would be called at that moment.

Also, if there's a situation where a neutral-survivor stumping would not change the outcome of the game and it is already clear one faction would win based on public knowledge of the flips, then yes the game could be called at that time.

EDIT: If there's a scenario where there's 5 players (2 maf v. 3 VT) and a town-HoH nominated 2 VT and therefore 2 mafia were the sole voters, the game would be called after both mafia voted (whether 2-0 or 1-1), as there would be no way for mafia to lose at that time.

[Soren]

Gale what do you think of firebringer refusing to explain his town read on you and deliberately ignoring my 695?

[Firebringer]

Are you serious soren?

Honestly. You either know who you are going to vote or you don't.
Stop wasting time.

[Soren]

So you don't care that I'm going to lose the game for us?

[Gale Wing Srock]

Gale what do you think of firebringer refusing to explain his town read on you and deliberately ignoring my 695?

Yeah Firebringer, explain it to him man. If we have any chance at winning then we should try.

Soren, after Pablito's last post. Which combinations of scum team do you think are possible?

[Soren]

Gale what do you think of firebringer refusing to explain his town read on you and deliberately ignoring my 695?

Yeah Firebringer, explain it to him man. If we have any chance at winning then we should try.

Soren, after Pablito's last post. Which combinations of scum team do you think are possible?

You dodged my question by redirecting the burden onto fire. Fire's action is amazingly questionable, but you do not address his questionable actions here. You're not telling me what you think about fire's action. It's almost as if you don't want to give your read on fire here (because you're both scum), so you just redirect it.

Stop trying to make me expend my mental capacity elsewhere, I have a post coming up.

[Not_Mafia]

egdorP

[Soren]

I've been fence sitting for far too long, I'm being extra cautious right now because we are in a lylo situation, I cannot make rash decision, I cannot allow bias to cloud my mind, I cannot allow anything but rational thinking guide me in this path. So it's about time I put my foot down and make a stand about the game state right now because I believe I have solved the game.

To proceed, there is two ways in which I can approach the current stage of the game. List absolutely everything out, every conceivable scenario and outcome, and eliminate which I find to be very unlikely away. I've already wasted too much time and this will take too much time. It involves putting thinking into where I shouldn't be putting it into. There would be far fetched scenarios, and everything is scrutinized to mere conjecture. So I shall go with the second way in which I can proceed the game with. Narrow things down to what I, myself, feel strongly about. Using the most incriminating evidence that I currently hold, and work my way from there. I must begin by working with what is certain. But let me rephrase that, because nothing is 100% certain at this point. I have to work with what I personally find to be the most certain thing at this stage of the game. And what is that? Firebringer's play right now. His play makes him obvious scum to me. He is the biggest scum read that I have right now, it is a firm belief that I hold and I do not see that changing. He is making it blatantly obvious that Gale is his scum buddy. Refusing to explain his town read and also giving no care at all at a lylo situation. But this is such questionable play as scum to me, if he is Gale's buddy why is he not trying to prevent me from hammering Gale? Rather, it seems as though that he does not care that Gale is going to get hammered. This is springing many thoughts into my head.

Allow me to explore this further. Fire and Gale are scum buddies. Fire is town reading his scum buddy and is voting for not_mafia in hopes that town!notmafia will get lynched. I want to lynch Gale because he is not convincing me to not lynch him and I have expressed it many times, but fire does not seem to care that I'm going to lynch his town read in a lylo situation. Fire does not believe that it is his responsibility to defend Gale, despite from his perspective, his is "town" and Gale is also town and that we are in lylo and lynching Gale would spell a loss to town. He is making his odd play so obvious to everyone, so obvious for us to pick at. I cannot see this coming from a town mindset at all. I have four scenarios here, each scenario leading me to assume the next.

1. Fire is town and doesn't care about town losing. This is implausible and I cannot accept this to be the case. Therefore, Fire cannot be town. Under this angle, the following three scenarios presents itself.
   
2. Fire is scum and Zymf is his scum buddy. This explains his quick vote on not mafia, thereby meaning wanting not mafia to by lynched, but at the same time he also doesn't care if Gale gets lynched instead. Fire is already in a comfortable position, and so he just doesn't care what I do, nor does he have any care to put much effort at this stage because he has won as scum and is just waiting for me to make my decision. However, I find this scenario to be implausible, because Zymf would of quickly hammered not_mafia and the firezymf scum team would have made the game winning move. This is not the case, therefore Zymf is not scum with Fire, which means that scum lies within not_mafia and Gale.
   
3. Fire is scum and notmafia is his scum buddy, and he's playing a WIFOM tactic by making it
   seem very obvious
   that Gale is his buddy. He is doing this by bus voting his scum buddy not_mafia (thinking that others will assume that scum wont bus their buddy at this stage of the game), and at the same time town reading Gale but also refusing to defend Gale and explain his town read on Gale. Fire knows that I will lynch Gale, and doesn't care. Why? Because Gale is not his scum buddy but not_mafia is. This is slightly plausible but I do not think that his is the case. Why? Because WIFOM strategy isn't going to work here. He is making it way too obvious that Gale is his scum buddy, refusing to give his read out and refusing to care that I will lynch him, he is making it so obvious that Gale is his buddy that one has to question why he is making Gale to be so obvious scum. And question I should. He makes it so obvious that Gale is scum, that Gale can't actually be scum. And so not_mafia has to be scum. Surely he should have known that making someone to be so obvious scum that I must then assume that it is all an elaborate strategem and so the person he made out to be obvious scum, is not scum. But that's exactly what he wants me to think, and so Gale is scum. And that's why WIFOM is not going to work here, it requires a level of manipulation to pull off successfully, WIFOM engages the enemy in a battle to outwit their enemy but it is an unreliable strategy because it can go either way without any control over which. Fire is not scum buddies with not_mafia and not using WIFOM to make me assume that Gale is obvious scum, but using it for another reason. He already knows that I am deadset on lynching Gale, so why even bother making it so obvious that Gale is scum? This leads me to my next scenario.
   
4. Fire is scum and Gale is his scum buddy. Fire is not scum buddies with not_mafia because he would not bus vote his buddy at this stage of the game, he needs to play it safe. Playing it safe at this stage of the game is to let what will happen, happen. What will happen is me hammering Gale, and so scum!Fire is letting that happen. He doesn't care that Gale is going to get lynched because Fire already knows that I am dead set on lynching Gale, so there's no point in fire trying to defend Gale, because once Gale flips scum, Fire is going to look even worse. Thus, Fire has given up on his scum buddy and hopes to survive and try to win the game through himself as the sole surviving scum.

[Gale Wing Srock]

Rofl you don't know how to solve problems.

First thing in solving problems is assumptions. Your first assumption of "Fire is town and doesn't care about town losing.

This is implausible

and I cannot accept this to be the case. Therefore, Fire cannot be town. Under this angle, the following three scenarios presents itself. "

Is wrong and biased.

Just because you cannot accept this to be the case, it doesn't mean it is not plausible. Let me explain why it is plausible.

People who play many games at a time, don't really want to spend a lot of time in any one particular game, unless it is absolutely required, and unless they think that spending that extra 30 mins or so will actually win them the game.

---

If you tell Firebringer that you will vote as he tells you to, provided he gives you a detailed explanation on both the nominees; and if he trusts you enough, to believe that you will stick to your word. Then he will do it.

Otherwise, instead of wasting his time doing ISOs and looking for why me or Not_Mafia is scummy or not, he would rather prefer to trust his gut reads on the two of us.

---

I know this, because to an extent, I am like that too. And I am aware of quite a few people who are that way.

---

Tbh, I have totally given up on this game after your last post. I believe that you are either inexperienced or do not have enough understanding of the situation to win us the game. So, I would suggest you to either learn about the game via Wiki and do another reread of the game. Or just end the game and learn from you mistakes in the post game.

[Soren]

It looks like we are not progressing, it appears that we each have our set opinion, and nothing are going to sway our opinion. And so we're just waiting for me to make the deciding vote. But that's because gale and fire are scum so of course they won't be changing their opinion and continuously attack me head on.

Gale, it appears as though you don't want to entertain the fact that fire is scum. You didn't want to explain your thoughts on fire and didn't respond to my 718.

The assumption thing, yes I find it to be implausible because fire is my biggest scum read right now and what he's doing certainly does not come from a townie mindset. Implausible means that it does not seem probable to me. You think that it is plausible, and I understand the points that you are making, but when there are two sides to an argument, we choose what we believe to be the case. I guess we're just standing on different sides now.

Now I'm asking myself whether I should counter your points or just leave it at us having a difference in opinion. Your reasons for thinking that it is plausible is not without holes, you're assuming a lot of things, that fire is a specific type of player who would play in a specific way and for whatever reasons you believe that to be the case. Anyways, I don't thinking going down this road will bear much fruit, as we don't appear to be seeing eye to eye with things.

We just have a difference of opinion here, especially, when I am scum reading fire. While you have been indirectly trying to protect Fire, which I assume basing on all your other posts, you're town reading Fire through a process of elimination, or at the very least, he is the least suspicious in your eyes. We have polar opposite in opinions, and I believe that it is because we're not on the same page when it comes to game, because we are of different factions.

Soren's scum team are fire and gale.
Zymf's scum team are fire and gale.
Not_mafia's scum team are fire and gale.
Fire's scum team are Zymf and not mafia.
Gale's scum team are Zymf and Soren.

I have made my final decision, I am going to lynch Gale. I want

not_mafia

and

Zymf

to give me their final opinion, whether they are okay or not okay with my decision before I vote. I'll give them a maximum of

24 hours

from the time of this post, because I don't want to drag the game any further.

After much deliberation, this is my decision, not every decision made is the right one, but this is the one that I feel the most strongest towards, and so it will be the one that I will make. Lylo is a difficult position to be in, and there's always room for improvement in how things are approached and handled. So if I have made the wrong decision and Gale if you are town, and I cost us the game, I am sorry. I am open to criticism of how I played in this game once the game is over so I can learn from my mistakes and improve my play.
If you are scum, well played, because you've been holding a solid front by yourself.

[Not_Mafia]

Obviously the vote is good by me

[Zymf]

@Soren: So you trust me as much as you suspect Fire, right?

What will happen is me hammering Gale, and so scum!Fire is letting that happen. He doesn't care that Gale is going to get lynched because Fire already knows that I am dead set on lynching Gale, so there's no point in fire trying to defend Gale, because once Gale flips scum, Fire is going to look even worse. Thus, Fire has given up on his scum buddy and hopes to survive and try to win the game through himself as the sole surviving scum.[/list]

I agree with everything except this last part. I don't think that Fire has necessarily given up on the game because as you mentioned yourself in scenario #3, he might be scum-buddy with Not_Mafia and is intentionally making you think Gale is his scum-buddy. However, I also think that scenario #4 is much more likely (90%).

Your 2 latest posts are very detailed and a good way to end this game.
Go for it Soren, lynch Gale allready