Green Day - The Barge

[TellTaleHeart]

Welcome to the Barge

[mastin2]

TTH wins the internets.
All of them.

[Ms Marangal]

Ego

[Profgessor Emotion]

An need ego

[A Simple Plan]

How? The Simpsons was my idea.

[mastin2]

Full disclosure in this topic, btw:
A Simple Plan is a neighborizer, obv. This is HIS topic, from his action. We haven't been talking in here, though.
We've been talking in OUR topic, from OUR action, the passive loverize. We had two topics to choose from, both literally identical up to this point. In hindsight, we should've used this one more than that one, but I can still paraphrase the important stuff from the other topic into here.

[mastin2]

In the other topic, ASP said he forgot about our power when he sent in the neighborize. Mara wanted to know his thoughts on the gamestate. ASP townread both us and Refined Mayhem, and further explained how he 'screwed up' by targeting us: his townread on us was stronger and he was busy with class. Mara wanted to know why RM was town; ASP said he agreed with 264 and also liked things like 40, liking the callout of Chaos questioning Zaph, 62-78 for vote reaction test, 170 for calling out Zaph being paranoid about lyrics, and general feeling of being useful to the town.

I answered hydra dissonance since I basically agreed with the read for slightly different but similar enough reasoning. Mara explained that she felt that, contrary to the above, her reading of Refined Mayhem was too many "neutral" posts that didn't help anything. She said they essentially "look good, but don't do anything good".

Then, the next post there is me explaining my math.

The math's really, really simple, and if you're reading this, then you'll either have it with us both dead (in which case, scum killed ASP), or with us both alive. In either case, my reasoning was thus:

We are town.
If we assume that ASP is also town (and given ASP's play combined with him targeting the loverizer with a weak action like a neighborize, I canNOT picture him as being scum), lynching us would've killed two town for the price of one, ideal for scum. It'd put scum in a traditional 3p lylo, but with three voices out of the game and normal kill mechanics having been used, far less informative than the norm.

If we lynched town (we did) and scum killed ASP, well, it'd still be a 3p lylo, but you'd have the information from Kop's lynch and our deaths, not to mention, the fact that scum chose to put themselves at a technical mathematical disadvantage (3p lylo vs 4p mylo), so that's not terrible.
FURTHERMORE, and this is the biggie: if we lynched town (we did) and scum killed US, they auto-lose and town auto-wins, because our passive loverizer ability would loverize them and then they'd die from killing us, leaving only town alive.

If we lynched town (we did) and the scum left us alive, then it'd still effectively be a 3p lylo...except with three extra voices able to hone in on who the scum are. We'd be scumhunting, ASP would be scumhunting, and that'd leave us a 50/50 chance by numbers alone to find the final scum, odds that'd improve given our combined resources. Especially given that we can separate communication: ASP and us can privately communicate if we choose to, and we can communicate with our partner in here if we choose to, and we can communicate to everyone in the game thread if we choose to, allowing for us to more effectively narrow things down.

Of course, if we had lynched scum (I still say we should've lynched ChaosOmega, but I digress), then we'd have won, but lynching the lovers would not be lynching scum.

Given these factors, I said that lynching us would've been sub-optimal, and I maintain that opinion.

ASP didn't quite understand the auto-win, but then figured it out for himself.

I summarized what I said:
Lynch scum, we win.
Don't lynch scum with ASP killed, town has information available, and a 50/50 shot overall.
Don't lynch scum with us killed, we win.
Don't lynch scum and they kill someone else, 4p mylo where two player slots are effectively acting as one, making it essentially a hellish 3p lylo where we have a 50/50 at worst.

Mara posted next, about how ChaosOmega was pissing her off, and how she needed to regain her composure. She mentioned that, yes, she has very damn good reason to be busy, and that should be self-evident, with her being here as often as she can and putting forth as much effort as possible. She had meant that to be in our private hydra talk thanks to its more personal nature, though it worked just as well in there. I offered to hold down the fort.

My next post was me saying that if either of us got to L-1, both Mara and ASP had my permission to out my math if I wasn't online at the time to give it. I let Mara know that whenever possible, I'd need her backing me up. (Mara and I have a bit of a dynamic, where MY job is to do the scumhunting and gamebreaking, and Mara's job is to flesh things out and fill in the gaps, like she did with her case against ChaosOmega.) I told ASP that he needed to be doing the same, fending for us and himself, because he'd seen our math: he knew it was true, he could cross-reference it if he preferred, it was a gamebreaking strategy, that I still maintain that ChaosOmega was trying to fuck over, because he knew it'd fuck him over if left unchecked.

After that, I laid out a proposed mylo plan if we got that far, but this particular plan is something I'm keeping between ASP and us. Lover talk, which should remain in the lover thread, for lover reasons. I wish I could safely share, but if I did, the whole point of the plan would be ruined. Suffice to say, though...if we live to see tomorrow, I have a plan that MAY guarantee an auto-win, albeit at some risk.

Mara said she saw the value in it but wasn't quite sure it'd work as intended, and ASP didn't comment on the matter, but if we survive, I'll bring the subject back up to them first thing tomorrow and see if they're willing to go through with it. You'll instantly know what I'm talking about if/when we choose to enact it.

And that brings us to the night, where ASP asked for recruits.
If he took my advice, then it's Refined Mayhem I'm writing this message for. I laid out each option available:
ChaosOmega has zero risk involved, but also zero reward. It's not like talking to you in here would do any good; anything I have to say to you I'd just say in the game thread. While probably trying to lynch you.
Zaph has some minor risk involved, but not much reward. There'd be some amount of things to talk about, maybe hash out that read you have on us, but I don't see it as being particularly productive.
Refined Mayhem has a fair amount of risk, but a huge reward. They'd add two voices rather than just one. They're the player in this game I have the strongest townread on, especially for their D1 play. (In particular, if memory serves me, they were one of the players who hopped onto Titus in the last minute, a move unlikely to be a bus.) They're the player slot I'd say that is probably the most reasonable of the three. This trifecta of reasons make them an

excellent

recruit.

The only downside? Those exact same reasons are why they make an

excellent

nightkill. All the same, I did recommend trying: if they ended up dead, no harm no foul. We do things the hard way. If they survive: we've got the slot I most trust to make the right call being in the position of being the most informed.

As an added bonus: ChaosOmega said that he'd target one of Refined Mayhem and Zaph. If he claimed it was Zaph he blocked and Refined Mayhem died, to be blunt, I'd just auto-lynch him on the spot, and Zaph probably would, too. So, it's unlikely that ChaosOmega will make that move.

[mastin2]

A basic summary of the above, btw:
If we die, ASP was killed. If ChaosOmega was not lying about his jailkeep power, that means that ASP's recruit should succeed. (I think, anyway?) So, if we die, you should have access to all of this.

I still say that ChaosOmega is the player most likely to be scum. Aside from Mara's case on the matter, there's also my beliefs. I'm a bit busy at the moment, but I'll see if I can summarize my points about him in a bit. It mostly has to do with me not liking anything he's done the whole game, but I express it in a way different than Mara does.

[A Simple Plan]

If we die, I hope this helps for the newly recruited neighbor.

[mastin2]

So basically, my dislike for ChaosOmega started with his very first post: he tried to be all serious in the game during a time where most people (aside from obligatory things that should be instantly claimed) were joking around. Not only was he being serious, but he was also asking why Zaph would claim this fairly anti-town power. Which, well...no duh is something to be claimed? And then, there's the whole selective targeting--what made Zaph's claim of an anti-town power worse than our own claim?
(We're past deadline, so I'm in a bit of a rush to get this in, since literally any minute, TTH could log in and start the day, telling us we're dead. Meaning, I'm posting this piece by piece, rather than all at once.)

[mastin2]

His follow-through also didn't sit well with me, but the next really problematic post was 68. When he went after Kop, it was going after an easy target, which I felt his Zaph vote was also doing: attacking players who are easy to get wagons on, and direct a mislynch onto. Then, there was the absolutely horrible response to post 34: "Null. Except, not actually null". He was trying to have his cake while eating it, dodging the brunt of the responsibility there while still technically responding.

His next part, written to Zaph--the player he

was just voting

mind you--looks like he is addressing someone he knows is town, and is trying to stay off of their bad side.

[mastin2]

The really damning part? RadiantHorsebells switched votes onto Titus in 89. ChaosOmega, in post 91, tried very hard to get the vote

off

of Titus: not only asking why it moved from Kop (who we know is town), but also why not move to On the Prowl (who we also know is town).

[mastin2]

111, backing up Refined Mayhem (which I maintain to be scummy in of itself), goes on to further cast shade on RH for the Titus vote, discrediting someone who was right. We also have this:

RadiantHorsebells [3] - Refined Mayhem, Titus, Zaphkael

ChaosOmega casted shade, while staying off of the wagon. This, in part because of Titus already being on there, and how suspicious hindsight would have it look. I'd like to point out,

Titus [2] - RadiantHorsebells, A Simple Plan

This is pretty compelling evidence ASP is not scum, in case we live. And IS good reason for scum to be pushing RadiantHorsebells, exactly like ChaosOmega was; they wanted a counterwagon to make sure Titus didn't get lynched.

[mastin2]

I'd also like to point out: Titus, not once, mentions ChaosOmega in her iso, as far as I can tell, unless I overlooked something. Not ONCE.

[mastin2]

It looks helpful on the surface, like they're trying to crack the game, but it means jack shit

This is a case of pot calling the kettle black, given his own iso. A lot of his pushes look like they are helpful, but they don't actually accomplish anything pro-town.

[mastin2]

There's also this:

ChaosOmega [1] - Profgessor Emotion
Kop [1] - ChaosOmega
Zaphkael [1] - Titus
Titus [5] - A Simple Plan, Refined Mayhem, Zaphkael, Kop, On the Prowl
A Simple Plan [1] - RadiantHorsebells

Aside from us voting ChaosOmega, and Titus voting Zaph (reason for Zaph to be town, btw), ChaosOmega is literally the only player alive who was not voting Titus.

Sooooooooooooooooooooo...either scum bussed Titus,
Oooooooooooooooooooooooor, scum's just ChaosOmega. Pretty simple.

[mastin2]

Kop [1] - Zaphkael
RadiantHorsebells [2] - Kop, ChaosOmega
ChaosOmega [2] - A Simple Plan, Refined Mayhem

Now at the first available opportunity, we voted ChaosOmega, but guess which one of these wagons went through on D2? It sure wasn't his.

[mastin2]

269 was an absurdly scummy post as well, with the way he pushed RadiantHorsebells.
His meta on Titus is also rats-ass backwards: Titus is the

queen

of not bussing. She's the champion patron saint of not bussing even when by all rights she should. This is self-evident if you've played games with her and seen her scumgame in-depth, as I have.

[mastin2]

RadiantHorsebells [2] - Kop, ChaosOmega
ChaosOmega [2] - A Simple Plan, Profgessor Emotion
Not Voting: RadiantHorsebells, Zaphkael, Refined Mayhem

Like, RadiantHorsebells voted ChaosOmega.

And yet, RadiantHorsebells still got lynched, in spite of ChaosOmega having twice gotten to L-1 and having escaped the noose.

[mastin2]

Then we get to D3. You can see ChaosOmega setting up the endgame agenda even in post 300.

I like Kop and RM for town. After that is eh.
Zaph is hard for me. The role stuff that was beaten to death D1 still doesn't put him in a good light.

Kop, he used his power on in order to appear more town (but I already covered this in-thread), and RM is the townread that he'd bank on in order to win the game. (This, mind you, is another reason why I think RM is a better recruit than Zaph: because if I'm right and ChaosOmega is tailoring to RM, that means he won't nightkill them.)

His read on Zaph is inconsistent with what he said earlier on the subject, because he needs Zaph as a mislynch.

And him leading today with no scumreads reads super opportunistic.

Absolutely hypocritical and backwards, given that ChaosOmega enters the day with

three

scumreads. Three, of six players alive. Half the game. So, absolutely, opportunistic on HIS part.

He laid out reasons for all three to be scum, and also all three to be town, giving himself outs for all of them, but the Zaph read was the worst.

[mastin2]

We lynch the PE/ASP duo and if that doesn't end the game, it straightens out the numbers at lylo to lynch Zaph.

I pointed out both in-thread and in here already why this is massively a scum-oriented mindset, but to reiterate: this is an absolute misrep of the actual situation. I was able to show you the math behind my calculations, and I proved this absolutely backwards: lynching the lovers would have put the town at a severe disadvantage, whereas letting us live allowed for no less than

three

ways to fuck the scum over. He, as scum, absolutely

needed

us to be lynched yesterday, and because he couldn't get it, he's probably going to lose.

This, without going into the shitty accusation against Mara (she had a baby, of COURSE she's going to not be giving this game as much as possible), not to mention, that he's attacking all three of ASP, us, and Zaph in a single post. Again, leaving his options open.

[mastin2]

Yes, that doesn't affect my result. There is a counter to it (since there's a counter to anything) depending on if he's scum with a particular trait/ability.

And here, he tries to lay out a situation where Kop could be scum, too.

Again.

Keeping as many bridges open as possible.

Quite literally, what he was saying there is,
"Profgessor is suspicious. Asp is suspicious. Zaph is suspicious. And despite my result, Kop could also be scum." In short. For someone who lauded Zaph for having no scumreads...he sure seems to have the opposite going on, in that he's putting dirt on

everyone

...
...

Except

the player who has backed him up the entire game, Refined Mayhem, and who he has also been backing up since D1.
He has been pruning, refining, Refined Mayhem, to be his tool come lylo, the key to getting the vote he needs to secure a mislynch. It honestly doesn't matter who he kills or who he blocks as far as he's concerned, so long as he leaves Refined Mayhem alive to vote his opposition.

[mastin2]

I'll claim if RM wants me to.

And this?
More pruning.
More selectively breeding Refined Mayhem to be his puppet.

He's not asking his clear!
He's asking Refined Mayhem.

[mastin2]

I think that's about everything.

Butyeah. Hopefully, at least one person gets this message for lylo.

ChaosOmega is scum; I'd bet the game on it.

[Ms Marangal]

No new neighbor?