Green Day - I Walk This Empty Street...

[TellTaleHeart]

Welcome Profgessor Emotion and A Simple Plan. You two are now lovers and share fates. You may talk in this PT at any time.

[mastin2]

I mean.
Seems kinda a waste to neighborize the self-proclaimed lovers.

[Ms Marangal]

I agree.

What are you thinking?

[Profgessor Emotion]

Oge

[A Simple Plan]

I... Honestly completely forgot. *facepalm*

[Ms Marangal]

Regardless, where are you at? The one game I had with your, you were a lot more active and aggressive and I still want to know the reason behind neighboring us, even if you did forget we are a loverizer

[A Simple Plan]

Right now I've got two decently strong town reads in yall and RM, so I decided choosing one of you would be best. I chose Prof because you all were my strongest, and screwed up in the process.

In terms of activity, I partially blame classes for it. I'm limiting myself to at most two games at a time because I know between all that's going on IRL i wouldn't be able to handle more. And at this point, I haven't seen a whole ton to push on; just liked Titus for scum, gut really (and in a sense, meta, though I hold meta to a whole hill of peas in value) and it just sorta, y'know, happened.

[Ms Marangal]

I'm a new mom, I understand being busy.

Maybe you could explain RM to me because I have him as scum

[A Simple Plan]

Crap, I missed this... I still agree with what I said in 264, but still, there are things that made him come across as town, or at least, protown in behavior. Things like 40, calling out Chaos' questioning of Zaph's claim, 62-78 for the vote reaction test, 170 calling out Zaph for being so paranoid over lyrics- little things that just gave a town vibe. I still believe I may have been too quick to auto-townread them, but they feel at the very least more helpful to town than a lot of players were.

I still think Chaos was the better lynch today, but so be it.

[A Simple Plan]

What makes you think scum?

[mastin2]

Hydra dissonance there, btw.
I would

not

have supported that lynch; I coulda sworn I logged in yesterday and made a post about how he was town, but it must've slipped my mind.

I still think it's ChaosOmega. Especially given how the RadiantHorsebells wagon formed in relationship to it.

[Ms Marangal]

I didn't support that lynch either!

But, youre talking about two different topics

Anyway, putting this here quickly while I try and get some sleep before a feeding.

I feel like to many of RM posts are to neutral. They give good conversation, I give them that but I don't feel like they dont really hae any opinion to anything which makes me feel like they are keeping options open.

I actually wanna go down that lane, but I think its between him and Chaos and chaos is more enticing with that wannabe omguz

[Profgessor Emotion]

So to explain my math:
We're town.
If you're town (and I canNOT see scum being stupid enough to target the loverizer especially given their power which we know what is), then that means lynching us kills two town for the price of one. It gives scum two deaths they need, putting tomorrow in 3p lylo tomorrow, with both you and us out of the picture.

If we lynch town and the scum nightkill one of us, well, the picture's the same going into the 3p lylo tomorrow, but we have the information from today's lynch rather than the far less informative nightkill. Plus, scum doing this are putting themselves at a mathematical disadvantage. So we WANT them to kill us. Not lynch us.

If we lynch town and the scum don't nightkill us, we're two voices with a private topic (effectively masons), allowing us to discuss the 50/50 shot of hitting scum. We want this even more.

If we lynch scum...we win.

So in EVERY scenario, it's better to lynch someone else other than us.

[A Simple Plan]

... Fair enough. But uhh, I'm a bit lost as to what's an auto-town win here?

[A Simple Plan]

Wait, if they target you, duh.

[mastin2]

Yeah, which is why they're more likely to target you, OR, let us both live.
While the chances of an auto-win are low, the odds are VERY MUCH in our favor if we LIVE today.
Lynch scum today, we win.
Don't lynch scum today but they nightkill you, 3p lylo where the town has information from today's mislynch. The surviving town have a 50/50 shot.
Don't lynch scum today but they nightkill us, scum auto-lose.
Don't lynch scum today but they nightkill someone else, we go into 4p mylo, with us, you (who I'm convinced is town), and two others: a literal 50/50 shot, where we can chat privately and discuss and see if we can figure things out.

In other words: town has AT MINIMUM a 50% chance of winning if we live today.

[Ms Marangal]

I think I'm gonna check out for a day to regain my composure. I know Chaos is likely scum, but he is kinda pissing me off right now.

Idk if I'm over reacting or what, but its pretty clear what the "more important stuff is" and I think it's also feel like it's clear that I am making an effort to be here in this game despite being on call to a little person

[Ms Marangal]

.... wrong pt, but I guess that works here just as well

[mastin2]

S'okay, Mara.
I can hold down the fort well enough when need be.

[Profgessor Emotion]

Since I'm not around 24/7: if either of us gets to L-1, you have my permission to out the math I laid out above in order to shut down the moronic mislynch.
Between the three of us, hopefully there aren't any gaps in our schedule where we can be lynched without detailing this stuff.

Butyeah. Mara, I know you're busy, but whenever you can, I could use you backing me up as well, and Asp? You need to be fending for us the whole time you're there, too. You've seen my math, you know what I'm saying is true, you can cross-check my numbers but I really do have that gamebreaking strategy, and ChaosOmega is trying to fuck it up by lynching us, because he KNOWS that if we live, we're going to fuck

him

over.

[Profgessor Emotion]

Also, I have a plan i f we live to mylo which can maybe make it a 2v1 rather than a free-for-all, though it requires both of your consent. It's a bit risky (and by a bit, I mean: quite a lot), but I think it'd be worth it.
Basically, because there's four players alive, I plan to self-vote. I then ask if either of the other players is willing to bet the game on the lovers being scum, for them to vote us.
If we get someone who bites, and the other player doesn't hammer, then the player who doesn't hammer would then be clear.
We could then push for an auto-win: lynch the player who voted us. They should be scum.
But here's the thing.
Let's say the other player who didn't hammer was somehow being cautious scum (but I don't see any reason for this). If they kill us, everyone dies. I'm not sure what TTH's ruling on an "everybody's dead" game would be, but it wouldn't be a mafia win, I'm sure of that.
Let's instead say that, for a moment, one of us is scum.
We know it's not us, and from your perspective, you know it's not you.
But if one of us was scum...then we can't kill the other, because that would cause an instant loss. Again, this forces an AT WORST draw.

So, to sum it up:
If we lynch scum today, we win. This is my plan, obviously, but I'm not a scumhunting goddess, so there's contingency plans in place:
If we don't get lynched today, and the scum kill ASP: well, we die, but the scum just placed themselves in a 3p lylo where the town has the information advantage from today's lynch.
If we don't get lynched today, and the scum kill us: scum get loverized and therefore die, town wins.
If we don't get lynched today, and the scum let us live: we self-vote, and make the dare.

This is the only place where risk is involved.
If town votes us and scum hammer, we lose.
But if scum vote us and town doesn't hammer, we proceed to explain the gambit, and lynch the scum; we win.
If town vote us and scum didn't hammer, we explain the gambit, lynch the town, and if the scum kill ASP we lose, but if the scum kill us then they don't win. (So, some risk, but it's an extension of the above.)
If both of them are town and we're hammered by them...well, that means you're scum and town wins.
If we hammer town, you'd kill the other town...but be left in a scenario where you can't win.

The only drawback to this is if neither player bites, which is of course possible.

[Profgessor Emotion]

Not entirely sure, was never really a fan of such risky gambits, though I do see the value in it.

I feel like, with this gambit, scum wouldn't bite and would wait for town to vote us so that they can hammer and win

[A Simple Plan]

Hmm... I expected Kop was more than likely our one...

Any preferences on who I recruit to the neighborhood tonight?

[mastin2]

It wouldn't be this topic, but the other one (we really shoulda talked in that one, whoops), but I'd go for Refined Mayhem.
There's the risk they die, but if they

don't

die, they'd be the voice best to have.
If you want a target that's got no risk of death, you can instead go for ChaosOmega, but that'd also be the least-valuable voice to have.
A compromise between the two would be Zaph: there's some risk of Zaph dieing, but not as much as Refined Mayhem, yet the topic created would be of very little use: more than ChaosOmega, but far less than Refined Mayhem.

So, overall, your choice, but I'd go for the highest-reward play, even if there's risk involved. (Refined Mayhem.) They add two voices rather than just one, and also are more town overall I'd say,

and also

a little more reasonable as town. All-around, they're just a better choice for a recruit. (It's just that the same things which make them a good recruit, also make them a good kill. )

[Ms Marangal]

Mmm.. chaos is likely scum, so I don't think you should neighborize him. I am for the same death risks as mastin, however I think zaph might be the best choice, closest to turn imo other than you