Micro 629 - The Arena - Mafia PT

[MagnaofIllusion]

Greetings Powerdown -

Here is the non-us playerlist

Dunnstral
karnos
Hopkirk
123456789
Leonshade
Map Wolf
Vedith

I don't have a ton of experience with most of the playes. karnos and I just came off a perfect scum win together and I've fooled 1234 (who is an Ircher alt) pretty handily in two games. So I'd prefer not to have them be our initial choice for Gladiator.

Feel free to share any notes you have or impressions about players as the days go by.

We should also talk about how comfortable you are with being selected as a Day's Gladiator. I don't want to do so with either of us Day 1 but there is definitely a WIFOM element there that I want to exploit.

My only advice to you - don't worry too much about suspicion. Just have fun.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm leaning either MapWolf or Hopkirk for Day 1 Gladiator. Just based on them having no basis for per-concieved notions on me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

We choose MapWolf.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Power you need to get into the thread ASAP. Lurking is not a good idea in this set-up as it will get you chosen quickly.

Don't make an issue of your new status. Several players (Hopkirk being the most noticable) have already looked and will probably keep it in mind.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Power if this is what I can expect you should replace out. This performance is completely unacceptable.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Note to self - if Power's slot ever gets flipped you can use 152 to attack Hopkirk.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm on mobile so no big post right now.

Most people seem to be of the mindset that we are lynching Town either way would be my take.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome Frog. I'm laying down some questions your way so we can have a back and forth that I think will effectively make it less likely we get picked out as partners for lack of interactions.

@Powerdown - get better. Honestly I'm not unhappy you had to disappear as I think a strong replacement was needed to redeem your slot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from 5pm EDT today until Monday morning for usual family weekend duties.

So since I will not be around til deadline I leave the final decision making in your hands Frog. Here are my thoughts on the Town players.

Karnos – I think he’s a prime Gladiator candidate. His “I’m not giving out reads” and “I’d make scum a Gladiator no doubt” stances will make him being Gladiator WIFOM of the highest degree. I also don’t think he can win a 1on1 if he goes against either of us.

Dunn – He’s been on the defensive most of Day 1 so he’s another good choice given he also has the “I would choose myself” WIFOM going on. Not sure who he really suspects given he’s backed off your slot. I think he’s another solid choice.

1234 – Don’t want him in today from a personal standpoint as I think he’d likely choose you and he got Townread enough for Day 1 that might not be wise.

Hopkirk – He’s on the same wavelength as me with karnos and I think Dunn’s attack on your slot before your replace-in makes him a likely safe choice to Gladiate outside ourselves.

Leonshade – Upside is his suspicions at the end of Day line up well with not coming after us. The downside is he generally is Townread.

Vedith – from a standpoint of being a bit of a “shoot from the hip don’t really think it through” standpoint he’s a Wildcard. Having him chosen might mean he comes after you (Dunn was his other read at end of Day). The other side might be him re-evaluating and going somewhere wild else. I’ve expressed a Town read so I probably would be hooked into going for his target if it isn’t me.

That’s it for Town. I’d lean in approximate order

Karnos = Dun > Hopkirk = Vedith > Leon > 1234.

The other option is we nominate one of us. We are likely going to have to do it sooner or later for the WIFOM factor alone. My stances going into Day 2 were Dunn and karnos so I’d really have to in the first 24 hours do some in-thread re-evaluation and I’m not sure I’ll have time due to V/LA so I’d prefer if we go in house this time it not be me from a gameplay standpoint. If you wanted to choose yourself your fixation on 1234 could be a selling point that you were chosen to take him out allowing you to go another direction.

I’ll keep my eye on this thread to see your thoughts and respond up until I go V/LA.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't have any issues with that choice.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Back from V/LA and interested in who karnos chose ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Leonshade. Another town vs town. One I'll probably stay out of.

Good plan. Frankly I don't know what game karnos is playing with his logic.

Actually I'm going to do some buddying to Leonshade in the form of soft defending him. If I ever flip and he's still alive it buys you a probably mislynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I might try to push a no lynch angle though

Please don't. That's so Pro scum that it is basically signing your death warrant late game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lol Vedith just dropped the hammer on karnos.

So we'll need to get a jump on who we want to Gladiate for tomorrow.

I'm leaning Leon for WTF value given his reads on us both are pretty positive.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oops nevermind - miscounted.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think this is the a crux portion of the game here ... I think a successful mislynch tomorrow puts us in a very good position.

My thoughts are as follows - both Gladiators have been lynched. Now might be, as you suggested, a good time to slip us in as a Gladiator. It's risky but might be a good move.

I don't want Dunn as Gladiator. If he's up for vote I want him to be the target.
I don't want Hopkirk in that I think eventually the "he's universally Town-read" might be able to be leveraged against him.
I don't want Vedith chosen as I think the narrative of neither of us or Dunn being chosen works well.

I'm a toss-up on Leon or 1234. I'm afraid Leon getting picked will result in him getting more Townread given the game state. 1234 I think might be perceived as possible Mafia looking to parlay his D1 TvT perception into a mislynch. But I agree I don't have a good feel for his possible target.

I guess it comes down to how comfortable you are being chosen. I'm ok but not thrilled.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Honestly, I'm fine with being chosen as gladiator. Can't guarantee anything, obviously, but I reckon I could have a good go at theorising why I was chosen and justifying my pick. Who would be best for me to go for, Vedith?

Let me look through your ISO real quick.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Having taken a quick spin through your ISO I think 1234 or Vedith are both pretty defensible.

Although changing it up on the basis of WIFOM "Why was I chosen" would probably be defensible also.

I also think your post-count is low enough that people might think scum thought you were mislynchable.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I think you can attack his "karnos is Town" stance as was pretty weak. 301 is an example ... who does Vedith know what karnos believes?

Otherwise I think his stances were more or less all driven by the assumption that Dunn is Mafia. For example his blather about "Dunn is trying to double triple fake me out with his vote" seems pretty over the top and exploitable.

Frankly all I think you would need to do is just post as you have been and let Vedith rage and draw votes.

I would lean to bussing if it looks like Vedith is likely to be lynched but would wait out the opening of the thread until some others had commented.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sure, if you want to do it. I'm OK with chosing one of the Townies if not. Since the pressure will be more on you I'll let you commit to the final decision.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well Good luck Frog! I'll keep my fingers crossed this works out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Since I don't want us to miss out on the choice and have frog be auto killed I'm submitting this proxy nom.

Feel free to change it if you want frog.

Frog Gladiates Vedith

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, now that we know everyone's stances, how do we want to play this?

I'm staging my play towards the long term. Today I think is a forgone conclusion. That means best case we need two more mislynches. I am going to play today to establish that we are not partners and attack Dunn / you. You are generally Townread enough that me laying into you and voting for you might get some raised eyebrows but I think will make the potential endgame if I ever get lynched go in your favor and vise versa.

Well, that was a much less tense day than I was expecting

Yeah Vedith throwing in the towel like that really made this an easier day than expected. I'm not sure why he did but appreciate the fact.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Damn.

Sorry that things shifted so suddenly. I'm hoping Hopkirk still hammers Vedith. I didn't expect that my case on Dunn (which only really implicated you via you have a faulty Townread which we know is false) would sway Leonshade.

[MagnaofIllusion]

465 was a knockout blow BTW. Nice work on that I think.

I'm going to avoid the thread and not respond to you to let your defense sink in.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Night has fallen at a rather convenient time

Actually this is not a great time for me given that Night will end Friday and the selection period will end Saturday so I will be on V/LA when the thread opens and will not have significant time to post until Monday.

Here are the remaining Town players -

Dunn
1234
Hopkirk
Leonshade

We agree that Dunn is a suboptimal selection.

Hopkirk is widely Townread I think so choosing him risks the chance that he will pick one of us and have it a dogfight. So I'd shy away from him.

Leonshade is Town reading me and thought you were more likely than Vedith so Vedith's Town flip probably will not reverse that position. I think he'd probably pick Dunn and I'd like to minimize that chance if possible as he has correctly stated he is that final mislynch.

1234 is probably our best bet. I have no idea what Ircher will do but his absence today probably didn't help him out. I'm sure I could win a 1v1 with him but I'm not sure how you feel about it.

The other option is to put me in and have me select Dunn as the target. I'd really like to save this for the day after if possible.

So let me know what you think about this.

[MagnaofIllusion]

We are in agreement then.

MOD - We choose 1234 as the Gladiator.

[MagnaofIllusion]

123456789 has just requested replacement. His slot is still probably our best bet.

Yeah I'm very unhappy with that given how things developed but not much I can do.

Ircher just a personal note to you -

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well at least it is Accountant replacing in ... no big worries about super-Town arguments and stances coming from him even if he chooses one of us as target.

MOD - for the record we re-choose Accountant for Gladiator.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also -

MOD I'll be V/LA from 5pm EDT today until Monday morning as usual.

Frog - I'll have some time to pop in here and there with quick phone comments worst case if you have anything to discuss.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, I have been chosen

How do we play this? I think you and Leonshade are committed to voting me

Yeah I pretty much have to strong bus. Accountant's posts make so little sense that down the line I think he'll be a nice mislynch. But I can't dally around today after yesterday.

I'm so sad you got chosen.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks Frog.

I hope you working in thread turns things around. I'm not counting on it and will leave you be for awhile but I still hope.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you can still read this Frog I'm sorry to see you have to go and it has been a pleasure working with you!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
Accountant
Leonshade

So here is the remaining Town members. I need to get three of them offed.

Dunn is a slam dunk and is going tomorrow. Accountant well ... I think will self-resolve whenever he (or she, I don't pay attention to those things) get Gladiated next.

That means Leonshade and Hopkirk have to be my final mislynch. Leonshade is probably more mislynchable but paranoi with Hopkirk might win the day.

But I digress ... I'm really only posting this in case Frog can read.

I'm going to Gladiate myself tonight. And select Dunn as I think that is a slam dunk.

Who I select after that is up in the air. Maybe I would go Leonshade first as he is paranoid about me and might bite the WIFOM. My hope is that either way I would choose Accountant whose play makes little sense. I'm sorta banking on Accountant declaring themselves Confirmed Town due to yesterday.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD - I choose myself for Gladiator tonight.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok that went far easier than I could have ever hoped. So that leaves Accountant, Hopkirk and Leonshade.

I've thought it out and want Hopkirk saved for the potential final Gladiate just so he is guaranteed to be in the mix which may or may not work out. I think if we were heads up I could make a case for him as scum who has played a good and kept out of the spotlight.

So I have to flip a coin between Accountant and Leonshade.

Accountant is a wild-card. I have no clue how he thinks what he posts is obv-Town and I have a general disdain for antics. So I think I could probably outduel him if it came to it but who knows which way he would go.

Leon knows to be wary of me and has said so in thread. So there is a chance he could Gladiate me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So I've mulled it over and think not choosing any duplicate Gladiators makes sense as it means that there is no real information that can be drawn about who was chosen and when.

MOD - I choose Leonshade as the Gladiator.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well that went well. The person I most hoped to get picked was picked. Now to decide which way I am going to go today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So today certainly changed up how I took the game to endgame. Pushing Hopkirk ended up being the correct course of action given his meltdown.

In accordance with Set-up Specific Rule 7 I choose to kill Leonshade tonight.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't see any confirmation about the Leon kill but I assume you see it here.

I choose myself as Gladiator

[MagnaofIllusion]

I figured ... its just so lonely in here ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unsurprisingly ...

I choose Hopkirk as my target for the Gladiate

Fingers crossed that Accountant doesn't go rogue.

[MagnaofIllusion]

For the record I don't feel bad at all about Twilight trolling ...



Good game Town. Just not quite good enough.