Mini Normal 1854 Mason PT

[Nachomamma8]

Are we claimed? Anything in particular you think I should know?

[Nachomamma8]

Come vote Fitz with me!

[Nachomamma8]

Are you all caught up? What are your reads?

[Nachomamma8]

And even if you ignore me I'll probably do my best to get my reads in full in this thread before I'm taken out by that dark demon they call Death; my goal is to develop about 5 strong strong townreads overnight that I would be defending like hell and then 2 decent ideas for scum picks.

[Nachomamma8]

But it'd be more fun to do our solving together like good mason buddies would

[Nachomamma8]

I will too!

[Nachomamma8]

Sorry for the delay, but I am here. I'll try to finish catching up the rest of the way right now and then post a consolidated reads list.

[Nachomamma8]

Creeps's 433 is a townread for me; I can completely understand why a new player wouldn't immediately understand that claimed masons = town, and I expect a scumpartner would have explained that to him in scumchat unless scumchat was completely dead (which is possible, but). We can assume scum have daychat since we have daychat. I also think that if Creeps were scum he would back off you more once you claimed masons; scum tend to get shy scumreading someone who is townread by a lot of people but town don't.

Gamma's suggestions to PL creeps in 435 is misguided, but I don't think that it's scummy. I don't often see scum suggesting to policy lynch players for reasons like that, but I think that it should be emphasized that policy lynches are useless in most situations; it's much better that we lynch who we think is scum and end the game before it comes to LyLo than it is to lynch someone because we think they will be a danger to town down the road (it silences strong town voices and means they have less impact on the game overall, sometimes players who seem like liabilities early can clear themselves later, etc).

@Deers's 441: I don't like how Deers says that there isn't a need to reread because of Creeps didn't answer his questions, but I guess I can see the perspective where Deers would be doing something like that if he were town. If I was alive tomorrow, I'd probably question him on it.

I like the conviction behind Creeps's 442 although I suppose that isn't a particularly compelling argument in general.

[Nachomamma8]

Eric's 451 seems town as hell; very rarely do I see scum announcing to the thread that they are lurking so people leave them alone.

This FrankJaeger post is yet another place where he shows he's active enough to avoid prods, but not yet active enough to play the game. I find a huge disparity between his play here and his play in the recently completed game Newbie 1744; I understand that he's a lot busier than he was in that game, but his complete lack of any thoughts or pushes when he does have time seems more intentional and less "I'm just busy!". He is probably my preferred lynch for tomorrow based on that disparity alone.

To Aristophanes's 460:
I agree that his fixation on Deers's meta is not particularly productive; however, the perspective that you seem to be taking here that it is scummy is incorrect. I find the fact that he did that research on his own to be pretty townie, actually, while the actual gain of it for Creeps as town is small, it's something he obviously believes in and I don't think that there's any reason for him to look up who Deers was as scum.

To Hiraki's 464:
To the bet of my understanding, Fitz's attack about "one scum in 4 is useless" was based on Io's opening post; no one went "on and on" about it, so that's a misrep; because the entire point of his argument here was the persistence of the bad argument, it's a bad point. I don't remember where people were criticizing fitz for townreading people who criticized masons but it wasn't the brunt of the case against him. I think that TF's approach here was pretty reasonable.

I don't understand the problems you have with Gamma in this post.

As a whole, though, I really like this post; if Hiraki was scum in this situation and trying to get cred for bussing a partner, it doesn't make sense to discredit the other people on the wagon who are also scumreading fitz; I find the fact that he wanted to go for a policy lynch over an actual scumread to be silly (and would in general like it explained) but at the end of the day the post still reads town.

[Nachomamma8]

This post by Eric is also, strangely enough, a point towards Hiraki being town. If Hiraki was white knighting Eric against everyone that would lynch him, I expect he'd do so in a way where he was likely to gain allies on it; taking out the piece where Eric is lying about being experienced and is stupid would be pretty highly likely to make him townread Hiraki to no end and isn't something that's likely to get him any friends elsewhere.

I think that Fitz's posts towards TwoFace bump TwoFace up to the "locktown" tier; I don't really see the two going at it as persistently as they did when A) the game is inactive as hell, so it wouldn't be particularly difficult for them to strongarm mislynches through together, and B) it's not like any of them was taking any significant heat that wasn't guided by the other.

This attack in Vedith's 497 is pretty terrible, considering the crux of it is "Creeps is using not having an avatar to scum advantage", which is... questionable? Terrifyingly bad?

512 is also misrepping TwoFace's post in a very big way.

Can't emphasize how dumb Gamma's "Creeps is a liability because he distrusts the masons!" point is - we are getting kill long before LyLo regardless of who the scumteam is.

Vedith starts looking a bit better once he starts posting more; nothing in particular that looks awesome, but he looks better. Don't like Deers doing nothing but prodding along the Creeps wagon with the "he still hasn't answered my question!" bit.

[Nachomamma8]

Deers's read on Creeps goes from scumread to policy lynch in 626, which is strange and not very comforting.

Vedith calling out Frank is a good look for him.

[Nachomamma8]

Deers's read on Creeps goes from scumread to policy lynch in 626, which is strange and not very comforting.

Vedith calling out Frank is a good look for him.

[Nachomamma8]

STRONG TOWN (would bet the game that none of these players will flip scum):
Lil Uzi Vert
TwoFace
Joshz
Aristophanes

DECENT TOWN (would be incredibly surprised if any of these players flip scum):
Creeps
Gamma
Mathblade

LEAN TOWN (I think they are town, but am not 100% confident):
Hiraki
---big gap---
Vedith

SCUM (I think these are the remaining scum):
Deers
---big gap---
Frank

[Nachomamma8]

The case on Frank hinges pretty heavily on the wide gulf between his play here and his play in Newbie 1744, where he was town. Now, typically, meta'ing after a single game is foolish and silly, but there's a big enough difference between the two games where it's definitely something I think we should talk about. There's also the matter of Frank's lack of time in this game is probably genuine which eats into the significance of this a bit but even when he's had a bit of time he's reached nothing close to the production he reached in that game and I think it's because he's uncomfortable with playing scum.

As far as body of work goes, Frank seems a hell of a lot more invested in 1744 than he does here, even from the beginning; whereas our Frank focuses on what's anti-town and throws out reads without backing them up at all, 1744 Frank questions early, and when he provides a scumread, provides decent backing to go along with it. Also of note is that during this game Frank goes through a hurricane that takes away computer access and when he comes back he has a catchup that is a great deal less underwhelming than the catchup we got here (compare this and this with the atrociousness that we were subjected to).

Now, as for game related posts...

First of all, he has 30 posts this game. 10 of them are promises of more content. Now, that people don't have time and all, but the fact that dodging posting in the game is a third of his posting is the part where prod dodging veers from annoying into alignment-indicative; compounded with the fact that whenever he does post content it's violently underwhelming, I don't really think there's a chance that he's town here.

Another good chunk of his posts are posts that aren't promises, but posts that aren't alignment-indicative; 58 and 60 are two posts dealing with why he thinks something is anti-town and thus has nothing to do with alignment, 61 is discussing alt identity and thus has nothing to do with alignment, 67 is talking about how discussing TVD's alt-identity is antitown and thus has nothing to do with alignment, 82 and 86 are two Frank posts where he talks about why discussing whether TVD is an alt or not is useless and thus has nothing to do with alignment.

The rest of his posts are half-baked reads; he townreads Hikari because "a couple posts look townish" and spend a large part of his time talking about how he doesn't see how people are scumreading him; this makes the chances of Frank being knowingly aligned with Hikari drop pretty dramatically since I don't think that the entirety of his content would be townreading his scumpartner for absolutely no reason (weak scum generally avoid scumpartners, and if Frank is this bad at faking content, I'd imagine the main read that he'd have would be a truth read as opposed to faking it and it's much easier to townread town than it is to do anything else).

His vote on Creep, however, is the scummiest. The entirety of the case on him presented is "10-15, Creeps looks scummy" to voting him instantly; this looks like scum trying to drive through the mislynch through and through.

If Frank is scum with havingfitz (he very likely is), then Hiraki and Creeps move up to strong town.

[Nachomamma8]

err, Creeps moves up to Strong Town and Hiraki moves up to Decent Town.

[Nachomamma8]

Io/Deer:

I don't really think that Io's opening is alignment-indicative; she made an RVS vote against one of the four people who replaced out and then clarified that it wasn't a serious push either. I mean sure, I guess that she could be scum and backtracking because she got too much heat for the push, but seems unlikely to me.

From a body of work perspective, the main reasons that I suspect Deer are:

1) I think that most of his pushes (primarily on Eric and Creeps) have been remarkably easy pushes to make without any conviction. I think that he was attempting to push through easy mislynches, which is a feeling that is especially compounded if Frank flips scum.

2) I think that the readswitch from scumreading TwoFace and Eric to townreading them within the course of a minute looked remarkably odd; don't think that it was a genuine thought progression.

3) I don't like his interaction with havingfitz. He said that he would "read all his posts within 12 hours to get a read on him" lurked for two days, then added him to the suspect list because TwoFace (the person he was scumreading before) said so. When talking about who he was willing to wagon, the people who he is willing to lynch are Hiraki and Creeps and Fitz but he'd rather lynch Hiraki and Creeps over Fitz; this seems especially odd since his top three suspects (in order) before were 1) Creeps, 2) Gamma, and 3) fitz, so you'd think that even if he was townreading Gamma all of a sudden fitz would still be a stronger read than Hikari.

As far as specific criticisms go...

Deer's original push on Eric was based on a few things - he said that Eric's use of "me and not my team" = "you are scum and want to hop on bandwagons without any reason" - this is a semantic push, and a terrible semantic push at that.

~will resume later, wanted to post now just in case I can't get back to it~

[Nachomamma8]

It might end very soon so I might be able too.

this is veering on the line of what's acceptable and what's not acceptable