Newbie 1756: Spoiler PT

[borkjerfkin]

1. Accountant - Mafia Goon

2. Charloux - Town Doctor

3. Manuel87 - Mafia Roleblocker

4. Morning Tweet - Vanilla Townie

5. MisaTange - Vanilla Townie

6. NorskaBlue - Vanilla Townie

7. thatsit - Vanilla Townie

8. Transcend - Vanilla Townie

9. WeCanSimplyBeOurselves - Town Cop

[borkjerfkin]

cop's soft means that town requires a successful lynch on the roleblocker today to get any use out of the cop if scum is paying any kind of attention

Once doctor claimed, scum knows it's cop/doctor, so they know exactly who cop is now. Any scenario where RB lives allows scum to neutralize both roles. hitting the RB allows one night of follow the cop.

[borkjerfkin]

as expected scum know exactly what they're doing with the PR situation tonight.

bonus points if they managed to swing a lynch on Charloux on D3 since he's not confirmed town till Manuel flips.

[borkjerfkin]

Also I'm calling a Morning Tweet N2 kill now because I have a feeling she's gonna bust the scumteam up if they let her live too long

[borkjerfkin]

Scum is killing wcsbo and blocking char

[borkjerfkin]

You can post sure

[borkjerfkin]

Wcsbo is investigating accountant. He has good instincts (was the first person to treat accountant as anything but hard town) but seems to be prone to reevaluating too quickly to be transparent. Luckily for him he is confirmed town in this setup

[borkjerfkin]

If transcend is lynched today I'm pretty comfortable calling this a scum win.

scum kills Morning Tweet, then throws out the "why isn't Charloux dead" card and the choice on D3 becomes between "was Charloux lying" and "scum designated mislynch thatsit"

[borkjerfkin]

tweet has towned all the towns and has the game by poe

She just needs to get people to listen to her

[borkjerfkin]

with charloux still around i saw a tweet kill happening, but all the replacements are scumreading her for some reason

accountant has done a great job of shooting down any blocs that might form; i think scum will probably just kill the obvtown doc, but they can p much do whatever and be ok

[borkjerfkin]

wasn't manuel who hammered you

[borkjerfkin]

My

every town player ever's problem that I've noticed is that my reads are correct, but I tend to second guess myself

the struggle is real. it's hard to know when to reassess and when to stick to your guns.

[borkjerfkin]

i am kind of a shit scumhunter, so i do what i can as town, and that is usually to fly my town flag high.

I have been mislynched on this site once in 4.5 years, and that was in a game where i was deliberately trying a more opaque playstyle. Sometimes showing town who not to lynch is as good as finding the right people to lynch.

[borkjerfkin]

This does sometimes lead to my scum game being a bit weaker to people who know me

really

well, but never underestimate people's level of uncertainty on you, even when it looks like you're nailed.

[borkjerfkin]

that opening post

might

be a misstep by accountant. it's hard for me to predict because of my inherent confbias, but that looks like a maybe too telegraphed attempt to lynch morning tweet before he actually reads anything and is kind of ignoring the fact that jaereed was town AF yesterday.

I think the only person who is probably gonna speak about about that is Tweet herself, which won't be good enough. We'll see. Giving scum about an 80% chance to win here.

[borkjerfkin]

aha. Loopdan caught it too.

[borkjerfkin]

not sure i'd call it that, but it definitely puts him at risk

[borkjerfkin]

I see LYLOs of (Tweet, Manuel, Norska) and (Tweet, Manuel, Loopdan) to both end in a Mafia win unless resets happen.

[borkjerfkin]

Thats gonna be gg

[borkjerfkin]

if tweet and loop both vote acct, and scum both vote norska, that slot will vote away from itself, lynching scum. We'll see.

[borkjerfkin]

Yeah he is killin it so far

[borkjerfkin]

don't count your chickens just yet

[borkjerfkin]

I see our mod is hanging around. Mild ill feelings from that.

Probably gonna rector later tonight unless accountant or loopdan can make a case for tweet-Manuel tho.

[borkjerfkin]

I'd never even considered that I might behave differently depending on Accountant's alignment here.

If I am giving any info with my very rapid VCs, it's hopefully just "you are close to a lynch"

[borkjerfkin]

I think accountant is playing this pretty well -- paranoid me who doesn't know everyone's alignment could be led to think this is one giant crossbus

Wonder if manuel would kill tweet; I think tweet looks very good from today's progression.

[borkjerfkin]

If accountant votes tweet Loop Dan will literally be confirmed if he picks correctly

[borkjerfkin]

I think whoever wins today probably just wins

[borkjerfkin]

I think accountant is playing this pretty well -- paranoid me who doesn't know everyone's alignment could be led to think this is one giant crossbus

Wonder if manuel would kill tweet; I think tweet looks very good from today's progression.

This situation is no longer in play since I posted it, mhsmith/Accountant team would have swarmed tweet by now after Manuel's vote. Accountant can literally only be scum with manuel or Tweet, so Tweet has to live tonight.

[borkjerfkin]

it'd be really funny if scum won due to NL today

I don't think that'll happen, but it's not a sure thing yet. I assume I'll be asleep when the vote is cast.

[borkjerfkin]

gg