Micro 629 - The Arena - Mafia PT

frog · Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:26 am

You sure? Alright.

I will still stay out of the way of today's lynch though, since that is what I would probably do if two players I read as town ended up as gladiator and target.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #26 (ISO) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:03 am

Lol Vedith just dropped the hammer on karnos.

So we'll need to get a jump on who we want to Gladiate for tomorrow.

I'm leaning Leon for WTF value given his reads on us both are pretty positive.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #27 (ISO) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:38 am

Oops nevermind - miscounted.

frog · Post Post #28 (ISO) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:33 am

It looks like karnos will be lynched anyway

Leon would be a funny pick, the only downside is that keeping Dunnstral alive for longer might be beneficial, and chances are he'd end up targeted and lynched

Frozen Angel · Post Post #29 (ISO) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:28 pm

Just an ego so I don't missanything

frog · Post Post #30 (ISO) » Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:55 pm

I'll be V/LA until Monday, as I said in thread, but I'll be able to get on here to discuss and submit a night action if necessary.

frog · Post Post #31 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:30 am

I'm back from my V/LA.

Night 2, another choice. HopKirk will likely be reassessing his reads after karnos flipped town, and he is still widely perceived to be town, so I wouldn't think he is a good choice. Choosing Dunnstral and Vedith might well end with one gladiating the other, and of the two a Dunnstral flip is preferable as it will call Vedith into question. Not sure who Leonshade and 123456789 would choose, but if either of us get picked I fancy our chances.

Do we want to choose one of us for tomorrow? Both of us have sensible choices for our target but the other, barring some logic about the choice itself, would have to bus them. If you picked Dunnstral I would vote you, and if I picked Vedith I imagine it would be best for you to go for me. This isn't necessarily bad, as should either of us be successful against our target and then later flip, the other should gain towncred.

My preferred choice so far is Leonshade or one of us. What do you think?

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #32 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:11 am

I think this is the a crux portion of the game here ... I think a successful mislynch tomorrow puts us in a very good position.

My thoughts are as follows - both Gladiators have been lynched. Now might be, as you suggested, a good time to slip us in as a Gladiator. It's risky but might be a good move.

I don't want Dunn as Gladiator. If he's up for vote I want him to be the target.
I don't want Hopkirk in that I think eventually the "he's universally Town-read" might be able to be leveraged against him.
I don't want Vedith chosen as I think the narrative of neither of us or Dunn being chosen works well.

I'm a toss-up on Leon or 1234. I'm afraid Leon getting picked will result in him getting more Townread given the game state. 1234 I think might be perceived as possible Mafia looking to parlay his D1 TvT perception into a mislynch. But I agree I don't have a good feel for his possible target.

I guess it comes down to how comfortable you are being chosen. I'm ok but not thrilled.

frog · Post Post #33 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:31 am

You are right that picking Leonshade could well backfire. I am not at all keen on picking 123456789, though.

Honestly, I'm fine with being chosen as gladiator. Can't guarantee anything, obviously, but I reckon I could have a good go at theorising why I was chosen and justifying my pick. Who would be best for me to go for, Vedith?

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #34 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:37 am

In post 33, frog wrote:Honestly, I'm fine with being chosen as gladiator. Can't guarantee anything, obviously, but I reckon I could have a good go at theorising why I was chosen and justifying my pick. Who would be best for me to go for, Vedith?

Let me look through your ISO real quick.

frog · Post Post #35 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:41 am

Sure.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #36 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:44 am

Having taken a quick spin through your ISO I think 1234 or Vedith are both pretty defensible.

Although changing it up on the basis of WIFOM "Why was I chosen" would probably be defensible also.

I also think your post-count is low enough that people might think scum thought you were mislynchable.

frog · Post Post #37 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:56 am

I will be trying that line. I replaced in at the end of Day 1 and wasn't as active as I would have liked to be Day 2.

As for justification... there are the suspicions I have already voiced, and I can have a go at him tunnelling Dunnstral, to the neglect of basically everybody else, as well. Doing a quick ISO there are a few posts of his I could attempt to deconstruct. Anything of his leap out at you?

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #38 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:12 am

I think you can attack his "karnos is Town" stance as was pretty weak. 301 is an example ... who does Vedith know what karnos believes?

Otherwise I think his stances were more or less all driven by the assumption that Dunn is Mafia. For example his blather about "Dunn is trying to double triple fake me out with his vote" seems pretty over the top and exploitable.

Frankly all I think you would need to do is just post as you have been and let Vedith rage and draw votes.

I would lean to bussing if it looks like Vedith is likely to be lynched but would wait out the opening of the thread until some others had commented.

frog · Post Post #39 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:18 am

Thanks for that. So, we're agreed that I will be the gladiator?

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #40 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:50 am

Sure, if you want to do it. I'm OK with chosing one of the Townies if not. Since the pressure will be more on you I'll let you commit to the final decision.

frog · Post Post #41 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:01 am

I reckon it's worth a shot

VOTE: @Frozen Angel: we choose frog

frog · Post Post #42 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:02 am

And now, with more consistent formatting...

@Frozen Angel: we choose frog

Frozen Angel · Post Post #43 (ISO) » Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:07 am

action received

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #44 (ISO) » Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:44 am

Well Good luck Frog! I'll keep my fingers crossed this works out.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #45 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:59 am

Since I don't want us to miss out on the choice and have frog be auto killed I'm submitting this proxy nom.

Feel free to change it if you want frog.

Frog Gladiates Vedith

frog · Post Post #46 (ISO) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:34 am

I submitted it by PM, no worries

frog · Post Post #47 (ISO) » Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:44 pm

So, now that we know everyone's stances, how do we want to play this?

frog · Post Post #48 (ISO) » Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:44 pm

Well, that was a much less tense day than I was expecting

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #49 (ISO) » Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:52 am

In post 47, frog wrote:So, now that we know everyone's stances, how do we want to play this?

I'm staging my play towards the long term. Today I think is a forgone conclusion. That means best case we need two more mislynches. I am going to play today to establish that we are not partners and attack Dunn / you. You are generally Townread enough that me laying into you and voting for you might get some raised eyebrows but I think will make the potential endgame if I ever get lynched go in your favor and vise versa.

In post 48, frog wrote:Well, that was a much less tense day than I was expecting

Yeah Vedith throwing in the towel like that really made this an easier day than expected. I'm not sure why he did but appreciate the fact.