Micro 839: Two-in-One (its over)

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 2.3

C14

Not Voting

(5): Pine, Taly, xyzzy, Persivul, Irrelephant11

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to reach majority.

--

B7 - FINAL

Taly

(4): Elsa Jay, Pine, Irrelephant11, Maki Harukawa

Pine

(1): Taly

Not Voting

(1): Persivul

Deadline in (expired on 2019-01-21 12:20:00)

[xyzzy]

okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth

[xyzzy]

it's possible he really is cop and was hoping to avoid having to claim buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut the possibility that he's scum is way too high for me to not reveal that

[Persivul]

!!!
*inno on Pine!

This seemed obvscum at first glance, but thinking about it:
- scum are more likely to screw up, since they're making up things, as opposed to town who are just relaying info from a PM. But, town are people and make honest mistakes - I've done it.
- But, good scum, having made such a mistake, would probably just leave it alone and forego the correction. Bad scum would panic and make the correction without thinking. Town would make the correction, as they want accurate info out there.
- So, this by itself seems indicative of bad scum or town, BUT...

Lol inb4 scum picks me to cc

This reeks of scum making a gambit and KNOWING that they're going to get CC'd, so proactively casting shade on the eventual CC.

When I'm town and claim, I generally don't expect scum to make a fake CC to set up a 1v1 with me.

If this gets CC'd, Irrel is like 90% scum.

[Persivul]

But I doubt Pine and I will be the only two investigative claims
I dare scum to 1v1 me, last time I was in 5p lylo I had to figure out the 1v1 and was jealous of the townie in the 1v1 the whole tome

Wow, this is like the telltale heart.

[Persivul]

On second thought, Irrelephant is absolutely ballsy enough to pre-emptively claim Cop. We're in 3:2 LYLO, so he has nothing to lose. Balls, there goes that POE.

In your experience, is he ballsy GOOD scum, or ballsy BAD scum?

[Persivul]

okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth

Will wait for Taly to confirm, but I see no scum motivation to fakeclaim in the PT.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean there’s like no chance that we go this whole game day without a scum cc
@Persivul
It’s just mechanically obvious

If Taly has also claimed cop in the scum pt then I bet scum is mafia and not werewolves is all that that means? I think that makes sense.
Regardless xyzzy and Persivul both seem overeager to lynch me here. I guess both can’t be scum at this point though, so my money is that i was right a page or two ago and it’s Persivul/Taly

[Irrelephant11]

Wait - if Taly and Xyzzy rolled doublescum then the pt thing is a lie anyway
Tricky, I was impressed at Taly for the early fake claim

Taly/xyzzy for sure, though yeah I’ll wait for Taly to confirm to make sure it’s not like... Xyzzy/Pine hoping for a quicklynch on the real seer or something

[Irrelephant11]

okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth

When did he say this?

[Persivul]

If Taly has also claimed cop in the scum pt then I bet scum is mafia and not werewolves is all that that means?

There's no C14 scum motivation for Taly to claim C14 cop in the B7 mafia PT. The claim would likely be countered by claim or flip at some point, and unless xyzzy had been killed in both games, they'd expose it. (Exception: if Taly and xyzzy are both scum/scum this analysis doesn't apply, but that's pretty unlikely).

Unfortunately, this logic also applies to your claim. But, other factors are making you much scummier than Taly.

FOS: Irrel

[Irrelephant11]

What are these “other factors?”

[Persivul]

What are these “other factors?”

1. Factors that had me scum reading you D1, although TBH as the day went by that was waning.

2. As noted, the foreshadowing of a CC that you gave today.

3. Taly's play today as scum was completely different from his play yesterday, which makes me wonder if he could have played so well yesterday if he were scum/scum. Seems like he must have had one town game going.

4. A personal tell from experience which I'm holding onto for a calendar day or two.

Before I say much more though I want to do a meta dive on scum games from both of you, particularly checking Pine's claim that a proactive fakeclaim is something you'd do as scum.

[Irrelephant11]

I don’t think I have ever fake claimed

[Elsa Jay]

Well now would be a wonderful time to try it in LyLo and to fuck over town. But hey, I'm not judging much.

Also, anybody here gonna address that Pine claimed Seer but Elephant claimed Cop?

Honestly if I was modding, to differentiate the games more, Id make C14 a game with werewolves and B7 the game with Mafia. So theoretically, Pine seems more likely to be telling the truth.

[xyzzy]

C14 requires that the choice be made randomly. if it was made non-randomly, this game would by definition be not C14.

hey here's an idea for a stupid C14 variant: the two non-town players share an alignment and are treated as a normal unified faction no matter what, but they each roll either werewolf or mafia independently, so you have a 50% chance of a team of one wolf and one goon, a 25% chance of two wolves, and a 25% chance of two goons.

[Elsa Jay]

okay now that that's over Taly claimed C14 cop in our B7 PT so there is 100% scum in {irrelephant, Taly} and I got the vibe from that PT that he was telling the truth

Wait, wait... Wait.

Pine - Seer
Elephant - Cop
Taky - Cop

What the fuck there's 3 claims. Holy fuck scum went all in.

[xyzzy]

oh btw to answer a question someone asked Taly's claim was n0

[Persivul]

Wait, wait... Wait.

Pine - Seer
Elephant - Cop
Taky - Cop

What the fuck there's 3 claims. Holy fuck scum went all in.

No shit, Sherlock. What thread have you been reading?

[Elsa Jay]

I confused Taly and Pine together, bro. Why did you think I did that? I'm basically a spectator at this point.

[Irrelephant11]

Elsa you can still win B7, you should help us figure this out

Also FMPOV assuming Taly doesn’t call xyzzy a liar next time he enters the thread, the scumteam is xyzzy/Taly like 99.8% of the time
I don’t think that claim ever happened

[Persivul]

I confused Taly and Pine together, bro. Why did you think I did that? I'm basically a spectator at this point.

Sorry, I thought you were serious in 18. I'll consider you a spectator rather than an invaluable advisor now. Thanks for the clarification.

[Irrelephant11]

Maki come back and talk sense into Persivul please, because apparently he’s town
He likes to scumread me for things that aren’t scummy for me and you seemed to at least acknowledge that last game day

[Elsa Jay]

Elsa you can still win B7, you should help us figure this out

Umm. Did You not see xyzzy basically confirm what we thought? B7 is already won.

I confused Taly and Pine together, bro. Why did you think I did that? I'm basically a spectator at this point.

Sorry, I thought you were serious in 18. I'll consider you a spectator rather than an invaluable advisor now. Thanks for the clarification.

Hey, I can still advise. I'm just also meaning as well.

[Irrelephant11]

Interesting that (again, assuming Taly stands by what xyzzy said about him claiming cop) xyzzy/Persivul is also a 1v1, and Pine becomes conftown
I wonder if xyzzy cared about who would be in the 1v1s, or if he just thought this would be more believable (than claiming cop himself) because “what are the odds they were both double scum???” (A fallacy, btw - the roles of one game have no bearing on the odds of the roles in the other game)

Taly is almost certainly about to be scumfirmed for me but I can also case the team more later, gotta go for a bit

Pedit: I meant C14
@elsa