Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Chemical Elements]

Confirm Polonium.

確認釙。

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: Nono
VOTE: innocentvillager
VOTE: spicer1209
VOTE: Casey
VOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender

[Chemical Elements]

Don't worry, I can speak English quite well.

別担心，我可以說英語。

[Chemical Elements]

Don't worry, I can speak English quite well.

別担心，我可以說英語。

Is the left character in your avatar "chemical", and the right one "elements"?

No. The whole thing is the character for Polonium, a random element I chose from the periodic table to be my avatar. In Mandarin, chemical elements would be

化學元素

, with

化學

meaning chemistry and

元素

meaning elemental.

[Chemical Elements]

I actually intended to name my account with both the English and Mandarin name, but was told I used forbidden characters in my account name.

[Chemical Elements]

Chemical Elements' Votecount 1.0

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-2)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, hellbooks, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-4)	Isis, innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements
Isis (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Chemical Elements
Lavender (L-5)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Chemical Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
spicer1209 (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Casey (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Hiraki (L-7)	Marksman
Chemical Elements (L-7)	innocentvillager
Hayasaka (L-7)	innocentvillager
ileileile (L-7)	innocentvillager
Not Voting (4)	spicer1209, Casey, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the heat death of the universe.

[Chemical Elements]

Chemical Elements' Votecount 1.1

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-2)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, hellbooks, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-3)	Isis, innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements
Isis (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Chemical Elements
Lavender (L-5)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Chemical Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
spicer1209 (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Casey (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Hiraki (L-7)	Marksman
Chemical Elements (L-7)	innocentvillager
Hayasaka (L-7)	innocentvillager
ileileile (L-7)	innocentvillager
Not Voting (4)	spicer1209, Casey, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the apocalypse.

[Chemical Elements]

Considering that this game can only last for a maximum of fourteen days and is nightless, I suggest we dunk one slot within the next 8 hours.

[Chemical Elements]

Chemical Elements' Votecount 1.2

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-2)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, hellbooks, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-2)	Isis, innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone, Elements
Isis (L-4)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Chemical Elements, Elements
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements
Lavender (L-5)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Chemical Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono
spicer1209 (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Casey (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
Hayasaka (L-6)	innocentvillager, Marksman
Hiraki (L-7)	Marksman
Chemical Elements (L-7)	innocentvillager
ileileile (L-7)	innocentvillager
Not Voting (4)	spicer1209, Casey, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the apocalypse.

[Chemical Elements]

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.

[Chemical Elements]

I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well

It would be

such

a stretch to say that he was voting people for their lack of participation if he's townreading someone for their participation, right?

Hiraki, why are you even answering on WyounsLastClone's behalf?

[Chemical Elements]

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.

It's okay. When you get lost, you can just follow me then. Mindlessly, hopefully.

Fortunately, I currently have a suspect if he flips town.

[Chemical Elements]

I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well

It would be

such

a stretch to say that he was voting people for their lack of participation if he's townreading someone for their participation, right?

Hiraki, why are you even answering on WyounsLastClone's behalf?

Because it's a terrible question. Feel free to tell me what other answer Wey could give here that isn't utter ridiculous. The people haven't posted clearly his 'suspicion' is because they haven't posted. Pressure to post and suspicion due to not posting are the same thing in this scenario, especially with a vote.

You are assuming WyounsLastClone would even give an answer that isn't utterly ridiculous.

Don't you think your efforts would be better suited to saying something rather than playing back-up mod all of the time? I'm not trying to discourage it - just noting that you've now done it 3 times on one page with the mod also providing a vote count above. I also still don't know what

you

think after all of it.

I have an idea on how to figure some things out, but it only works if innocentvillager flips mafia. If he doesn't flip mafia, I am at a loss.

It's okay. When you get lost, you can just follow me then. Mindlessly, hopefully.

Fortunately, I currently have a suspect if he flips town.

But you intend on just playing these weird coy games in the meantime?

Weird coy games?

[Chemical Elements]

Now I am coming around to the conclusion that Marksman and Hiraki have conflicting playstyles and that is what is causing the conflict.

[Chemical Elements]

You are assuming WyounsLastClone would even give an answer that isn't utterly ridiculous.

Even though he already stated that he TR someone else for reasons in the game? Yeah, super big stretch there?

How did you know what type of answer he would have given?

Weird coy games?

That is what I said.

I don't understand.

[Chemical Elements]

How did you know what type of answer he would have given?

Because there literally is no other reason. It is a yes or no question where if you answer "Pineapples" as an answer, it doesn't make any sense. So congrats, if Wey comes in here and decides to tell us that he's voting them because a Pineapple told him, you've proven me wrong. Instead, I'm going to actually read the game where the three haven't posted and realize that he is voting them because they haven't posted and suspicion is a bad word. But

again

that is missing the point that Marksman didn't even think this far and just saw the word "suspicion", latched onto it because there is nothing to be suspicious of, and set-up a "GOTCHA!" based on the fact that this is clearly the situation. But again - I know you think that Wey is going to come in and say Pineapples for some reason still.

However, that isn't the only answer he could have given. He could have came back and said that I found them suspicious because (I actually have thought of something, but I, unlike you, am going to wait if he actually says this).

They're not "suspicious" for not posting. I am voting to pressure them. You telling me you've never voted someone you're null reading or even townreading them to motivate them to post more?

Perfect - there it is. You're now questioning him based on verbiage rather than intent? That is a terrible way of scumhunting, if you are genuine.

For me, being suspicious of someone means you dislike them for specific reasons. Maybe it's because Wey thinks scum are more likely to lurk start of game. Or maybe it was an oversight from scum!Wey and he gave reasoning without thinking about first. I asked him the question to solve him. You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

What ANSWER does he give other than "they didn't post yet"???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

Yes, I helped him cheat on the exam. The question? What is 2 + 2?

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE:

should clarify that i dont think hayasaka is town tho

hellbooks dedicates a full post to discouraging a scum-threatening townblock from developing around hayasaka in a setup where she can't be killed before getting a chance to mention it.
VOTE: Hellbooks
VOTE: Chemical Elements
I agree with Chemical Elements' contributions being specifically not what's needed, and a promise of a postflip theory on villager to be presented postflip is a particularly bad look.

Come to think of it, there isn't much benefit for me to keep the theory to myself, since innocentvillager may very well not actually flip mafia. My theory was that if innocentvillager does flip mafia, elements could potentially be a partner since he didn't place innocentvillager on L-1 but placed nono on L-2 instead.

I agree with Hiraki that 23 and 31 are NAI and I would post them as scum, the good they do is maybe improving how we approach the setup, not revealing my alignment. Early as possible is the best time to make that type of post because it's pretty hard to make posts that reveal your alignment anyway, if you save it for later it's kind of an interruption on solving that matters a lot more.

[Chemical Elements]

@Wey - Why Chemical Elements for proactive town?

Mostly due to the help with vote count, and general participation. I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well, so maybe in my head helped me think of him as town.

THEY DIDN'T POST ANYTHING, WHAT ELSE COULD HE BE SUSPICIOUS OF?

If it still matters, I actually guessed that since WeyounsLastClone said most in that post, he might not be suspicious of those slots in the first place.

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE: Casey
VOTE: ileileile

[Chemical Elements]

visible confusion

Bus who?

Thought it was getting quiet in here, but I guess everyone was sleeping or deep in thought

Maybe I'm a bit rusty in my terminology, but it felt like an easy comment to potentially join some of the L-2/L-3 trains.
Do you think his post was a town-entrance? Or a null-entrance? I would think a town-entrance would add at least an apology, or intent to join the conversation and analysis.

It is now night. I was neither deep in thought nor asleep several hours ago. Instead, nothing substantial has caught my eye and I didn't know what to do with this game for the last few hours other than just checking on it every now and then.

[Chemical Elements]

Why Chim Elom? I like them being active while admitting they have no new thoughts or reads.

@Chelem - What's your mafia experience like?

First time I played mafia was during a school activity. After that, I've been playing online for the past few years, but not consistently. I would play for several months and then not.

[Chemical Elements]

@Almost50: You know you're perfectly welcome to call can call us women. Or ladies. Heck even gals. But do you call your guy friends the males? Sheesh.

Maybe he calls them men or boys. It's not exactly suitable to call female friends the females either.

On another note, I am currently at post 280 save for a few recent posts that I have skimmed.

[Chemical Elements]

It appears some among us do not seem to understand how important it is to dunk someone, anyone as soon as possible. If we dunk someone, we have a chance to win. If we decide not to dunk anyone until our time runs out, we lose.

[Chemical Elements]

I will try to keep my vote-spread limited on the opening 2-3 days. I do not wish to have a double-elimination by chance. I suggest other players consider this too. 3-4 votes are good enough for me personally.

Check out the RULES' spoiler quoted below and have a look at the

Voting:

section item no. 4. According to this ruling by Ruby Red, it is impossible for a double elimination to occur by chance.

Setup

• 4 Mafia Goons
  
  
• 10 Vanilla Townies
  
  
• Nightless.
  
• Each player may vote for as many players as they like (a single vote on each).
  
• Votes are not reset after someone is dunked on.
  
• Deadline for the entire game is 14 days. Town lose if the deadline is reached.
  
  
• Mafia win by achieving parity with the town. Town win when all mafia are dead.

Sample Role PMs

Spoiler:

CROSSFIRE
You are a Vanilla Townie . You win when all mafia are dead. You lose when mafia achieve parity or the deadline is reached. Confirm by posting in the game thread.
The game thread is here.

CROSSFIRE
You are a Mafia Goon . Your partners are TODO, TODO, and TODO . You win when the mafia have achieved parity with the town or the deadline is reached. You lose when all mafia are dead. Confirm by posting in the game thread.
Your private thread is here. || The game thread is here.

Rules

Spoiler:

In general, follow standard rules: avoid toxicity, provable randomness, cryptography, quoting your role PM, and posting after you're dead.

Voting:

1. Votes and unvotes must be in
   bold
   or in VOTE: tags, with vote tags being preferable.
   
2. Votes in spoilers will not be counted.
   
3. Dunks will occur when a majority (>50%) is reached.
   
4. Between the period between a hammer and my posting the flip, discussion may continue but no further votes or unvotes will be counted.
   
5. You may not vote for multiple players using the same vote tags. If you would like to cast multiple votes, you must use multiple vote tags.
   
6. I will treat naked UNVOTE: tags as removing all of your casted votes.
   
7. If you would like to remove your vote from a specific player, please type that player's name specifically (i.e. UNVOTE: ruby red)
   
8. Votes are counted sequentially, both from post to post and within a post.

Activity:

1. Prods occur after 36 hours. After you are prodded, you have 24 hours to post in-thread. If you do not respond within 24 hours, you will be replaced. If I have to prod you 3 or more times, you will be replaced at my own discretion.
   
2. Abuse of prod dodges will result in you being replaced at my own discretion.

[Chemical Elements]

Votecount 1.8

Target	Wagon
spicer1209 (L-2)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman, Casey, hellbooks, Isis
Nono (L-3)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone, Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-3)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono, Hayasaka, Casey
Almost50 (L-3)	innocentvillager, Casey, WeyounsLastClone, Isis, Chemical Elements
innocentvillager (L-4)	Marksman, Lavender, Chemical Elements, Nono
Chemical Elements (L-4)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Hayasaka, Isis
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, Elements, Isis
Isis (L-5)	Marksman, Chemical Elements, Elements
Elements (L-5)	Casey, Hiraki, Marksman
Lavender (L-6)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements
Hiraki (L-6)	Marksman, Casey
Hayasaka (L-6)	innocentvillager, hellbooks
Casey (L-7)	innocentvillager
Marksman (L-7)	Hiraki
Not Voting (3)	spicer1209, Hayasaka, Almost50

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the dead walk the Earth.

Almost50 replaces ileileile.

Quoting this for 2 reasons:

1- Not gonna vote Spicer in case Nono is scum and scum are trying to save their p by driving a wagon on the lurker (although that would be a bad move since votes do not reset).

2- To say WELCOME to my best pal, Almost50. Since I joined MS there has not been a single game where he wasn't in the same game as me. *Nod*

innocentvillager unvotes spicer1209 in post 292. I am currently at post 300 so I don't know if anyone decided to vote spicer1209 in the last 100+ posts. I would rather spend my time elsewhere for now, so I will read the 100+ posts later.

[Chemical Elements]

Also on that vote count: The "trio" of IV/Casey/Isis/CE are on BOTH lurker wagons (calling my slot a lurker before I joined in) which suggests either town with the firm belief scum are lurking, or scum trying to save their pal.

A closer look shows WLC was voting me (but not Spicer) AND voting Nono simultaneously. I guess I was right unvoting there.
Marks is voting Spicer, but not me. He is voting WLC over Nono though. Hmmm...
hellbooks is on Spicer, and ONLY Spicer out od the top 4 wagons. WHY? <<

@hellbooks

In fact, what is the difference between ileile and Spicer, given each has posted only once with no content at all??

Nono is only voting WLC. Is this you ONLY SR still? Who would you suspect if WLC was eliminated and flipped red?

@Nono

Isis is voting both lurkers, but she's also voting 2 of the voters (CE & hb). Also would like a clarification here, please.

@Isis

IV looks like a VI in this VC, voting all top 4 wagons. (!!!)
Casey & CE are voting both lurkers + one of the other 2 top wagons *Casey on WLC & CE on Nono). amd I don't know what to make of this.

My opinion on the matter is that what you observed may be sheer coincidence.

[Chemical Elements]

Currently at post 309. However, got to do other things now.

[Chemical Elements]

Don't worry, I can speak English quite well.

別担心，我可以說英語。

Can you speak Aleut?? If so, consider me asking you -in Aleut- why you picked these specific people to vote at once.

No. I don't speak Aleut, so I will treat it as though you asked me in Mandarin and reply to you in Mandarin and English, so I can be understood. They were all random votes.

我不會說阿留申語。因此，我會假設你用華語問我那個問題并且用華語和英語回答所以其他人可以明白我。那些票都是隨意的。

[Chemical Elements]

@Almost50: You know you're perfectly welcome to call can call us women. Or ladies. Heck even gals. But do you call your guy friends the males? Sheesh.

free town points to casey 4 this

And you're doing it again. Calling something TOTALLY NAI a town move. Maybe I have a clash of playstyle with you too? maybe I landed in the wrong planet altogether? My destination was set to the PLANET OF APES. What planet am I currently on right now?

Also, that was AP talking back there..

Spoiler:

On which planet do you think Stephen Powell is a human and not an ape?

[Chemical Elements]

Wait, humans are apes.

[Chemical Elements]

Check out the RULES' spoiler quoted below and have a look at the Voting: section item no. 4. According to this ruling by Ruby Red, it is impossible for a double elimination to occur by chance.

You misunderstand. Hiraki got me right. It is 8 to dunk now. Once someone has been dunked it becomes 7 to dunk (13 players after one dunk). If someone is sitting @L-1 NOW they will be automatically dunked next because THE VOTES WILL STAY THE SAME. The ONLY way they don't get dunked is if the first person dunked was voting them (That was they still are @L-1 because the dead player's vote had been auto-revoked).

Theoretically, we could put EVERYONE @L-1 NOW, and then we can hammer one person, and we will all fall down like dominoes from then on.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Chemical Elements]

My opinion on the matter is that what you observed may be sheer coincidence.

Which one of my like.. 8 observations are you referring to?

"The "trio" of IV/Casey/Isis/CE are on BOTH lurker wagons (calling my slot a lurker before I joined in) which suggests either town with the firm belief scum are lurking, or scum trying to save their pal."

I was referring to this, but on rereading I have reinterpreted the part of your post where you say "amd I don't know what to make of this." as only referring to the last item and not the first.

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
This vote is to place WeyounsLastClone at L-1 so we can get a flip.
UNVOTE: Lavender
This unvote is so that I am only voting for six players.

[Chemical Elements]

Is anyone going to hammer WeyounsLastClone so we can have a flip, or does anyone have another plan?

[Chemical Elements]

Wait was he really at L-1
No no seemed to want to hammer somebody more than I wanted a bicycle for my 8th christmas

Nono was voting for him, though.

[Chemical Elements]

We could have arranged for him to unvote, have someone else add a vote, then let him revote

we have the technology

It will have to wait. By the way, since accidentally posting on this account in Open 785, I feel extremely anxious not divulging the fact that this account is an alt of Fredrick A Campbell.

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE: Nono
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
UNVOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: Hellbooks

[Chemical Elements]

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

Hiraki may have done that by instinct.

[Chemical Elements]

UNVOTE: Nono
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
UNVOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki

are you really just unvoting everyone on the Wey wagon?

Yes. My hypothesis is that no scum are on the wagon. To test the hypothesis, we could dunk two people that are not on the wagon. If both of them flips town, the hypothesis is wrong. If one of them flip scum, we continue to dunk more people who were off the wagon, I guess. If the two we dunk turn out to be town, I don't know what to do.

[Chemical Elements]

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

I was never defending Wey, I was attacking your line of thinking. I still don't really get the scum case against him but a red flip is a red flip.

Sell me on Spicer.

Weird question.

Hiraki also looks bad for defending Wey earlier, bit I'm hesitant here because it was almost too blatant.

Hiraki may have done that by instinct.

Instinct? You think I play mafia with instinct? Have you seen me post even once in this game?

I also - have to be very honest - that I have just put two and two together that Wey is the same as Clone. There's way too many names for that slot.

I have seen you post several times now. Don't you remember the conversation we had several days ago where you were saying what else could he possibly have meant and I thought that he might have not even suspected those slots given his use of the word many instead of all but didn't say so because I didn't want to give him an answer to Marksman's question?

[Chemical Elements]

OK, let me try this (REMINDER: If you had unvoted me already you can IGNORE this post)

@IV: Why are you still voting me?
@casey: You said you'd unvote when I've "earned it". What would it take for me to earn it?
@Isis: Are you

really

SRing me?
@CE: Now that I know who you are I am also confused by your vote sitting on me.
@Nono: no comment

Was the purpose of my vote clearer when you didn't know who I was?

[Chemical Elements]

No, and that's not my question. Now that I know you know me, so I am asking why -with your knowledge of my play- you find me scummy. When people don't know me they tend to SR me for my posting style anyway, and I've made peace with that fact. It's those who know me whom I find a bit strange to SR me for my posting style.

I don't find you scummy.

[Chemical Elements]

Don't you remember the conversation we had several days ago where you were saying what else could he possibly have meant and I thought that he might have not even suspected those slots given his use of the word many instead of all but didn't say so because I didn't want to give him an answer to Marksman's question?

I am not following this at all. Can you quote please?

How did you know what type of answer he would have given?

Because there literally is no other reason. It is a yes or no question where if you answer "Pineapples" as an answer, it doesn't make any sense. So congrats, if Wey comes in here and decides to tell us that he's voting them because a Pineapple told him, you've proven me wrong. Instead, I'm going to actually read the game where the three haven't posted and realize that he is voting them because they haven't posted and suspicion is a bad word. But

again

that is missing the point that Marksman didn't even think this far and just saw the word "suspicion", latched onto it because there is nothing to be suspicious of, and set-up a "GOTCHA!" based on the fact that this is clearly the situation. But again - I know you think that Wey is going to come in and say Pineapples for some reason still.

However, that isn't the only answer he could have given. He could have came back and said that I found them suspicious because (I actually have thought of something, but I, unlike you, am going to wait if he actually says this).
These are only a few samples from

They're not "suspicious" for not posting. I am voting to pressure them. You telling me you've never voted someone you're null reading or even townreading them to motivate them to post more?

Perfect - there it is. You're now questioning him based on verbiage rather than intent? That is a terrible way of scumhunting, if you are genuine.

For me, being suspicious of someone means you dislike them for specific reasons. Maybe it's because Wey thinks scum are more likely to lurk start of game. Or maybe it was an oversight from scum!Wey and he gave reasoning without thinking about first. I asked him the question to solve him. You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

What ANSWER does he give other than "they didn't post yet"???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

You needleslly stepped in and answered for him. That's scummy.

Yes, I helped him cheat on the exam. The question? What is 2 + 2?

THEY DIDN'T POST ANYTHING, WHAT ELSE COULD HE BE SUSPICIOUS OF?

This is a small sample of the times we spent together a long time ago. By the way, in looking for those posts, the following posts caught my eye.

Wey said he found them suspicious. I'm not saying they're suspicious, I'm voting to pressure them to post. Clear difference.

Mostly due to the help with vote count,

and general participation.

Must take a rocket scientist, I guess.

What? That was his explanation for finding ChemElem town. Nothing to do with the 3 names I voted. Read it again?

For context here is the full post 88 by WeyounsLastClone without any trimming.

@Wey - Why Chemical Elements for proactive town?

Mostly due to the help with vote count, and general participation. I guess post #66 could/should have included reasoning, but it included most names that I found/find suspicious as well, so maybe in my head helped me think of him as town.

Yes. My hypothesis is that no scum are on the wagon. To test the hypothesis, we could dunk two people that are not on the wagon. If both of them flips town, the hypothesis is wrong. If one of them flip scum, we continue to dunk more people who were off the wagon, I guess. If the two we dunk turn out to be town, I don't know what to do.

So you've now left mafia up to a betting game?

Isn't that what this game has always been? You bet that this player is the scum and, if the majority agrees with you, they place their bets there. If they win the bet, they get a slight advantage if they manage to place some more correct bets. If they are wrong, they bet again.

UNVOTE: isis
Why are people voting spicer?
they have one post.

Correct- which is why I asked sell me and got a nice little "why would you ask that lol??"

[Chemical Elements]

Currently at post 459.

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: Hayasaka

[Chemical Elements]

@Almost50: Your votes are on the most sane person here, the ESL guy who I swear I thought you said was town and is NOT in your #328, and your only comment on hellbooks as far as I can tell is that he's mafia if someone else flips mafia.

Your vote on Wey is good at least. One out of four ain't bad.

Now, as this post was made before WeyounsLastClone was dunked, this opens up the possibility that Casey was bussing WeyounsLastClone.
UNVOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: Casey
The rest of the post Casey made is below.

@all - Almost time for the first dunk. Should be innocentvillager for the fake/forced tone.

This is almost a scum claim from my PoV.

As a matter of fact, I am willing to vote marks, Nono, and hellbooks. I also don't mind voting any of the other people I talked about in my 328 post, but I doubt Lav is aligned with either of WLC ot hellbooks (whom I've corrected her name TWICE from "hellbox", so if I ever appear to be calling her that you know it's not intended.)


You know what?

VOTE: Marksman
VOTE: Nono
VOTE: hellbooks
VOTE: WLC (The full version of that name is too annoying to type)

Chemical Elements gets a pass for now (sheeping Elements)

I am also warming up to vote for spicer & Hayasaka (they have yet to post at this point, but I will wait to see when and what they post.

[Chemical Elements]

We will lose the game if we don't dunk all the scum in approximately eight days. Will someone please hammer hellbooks?

[Chemical Elements]

We will lose the game if we don't dunk all the scum in approximately eight days. Will someone please hammer hellbooks?

You mean Elements.

Elements is not at D-1.

[Chemical Elements]

Both. If I did know who scum were I'd vote them and would NOT worry about the chain reaction because we'd be dunking scum back to back. Voting "suspects" though may result in dunking them back to back when they could still be town.

Like, check the votes on me. Not a single one of them calls me scum. Even Casey has admitted she hates me, but I "could" still be scum = she doesn't have confidence in her read, and that's the closest thing to being a SR from all of them. Hiraki & CE have explicitly stated they do NOT SR me. Now imagine if everyone voted people they don't even SR.

If you fail to dunk anyone, you lose the game with 100% certainty.

[Chemical Elements]

VOTE: Nono
VOTE: Chemical

Nono's responses are weird and do not even relate to game. "I saw a hammer and I took it" doesn't answer my question at all.

Chemical for being on all dunks and all leading wagons. Looks more concerned of getting dunks than the precision of said dunks.

In short, bith of then seem to be pushing the game towards a speedy end without giving us the chance to gauge the reaction of someone being put @ D-1 or reevaluating after a flip

The game ends whether or not we dunk anyone. We could decide to not dunk anyone until the game ends and lose. Is that what you are suggesting we do?

[Chemical Elements]

Are you playing dumb? I repeatedly said we bloody dunk then REEVALUATE. We don't just dunk because we need/can. Just because you are relatively safe sitting at the bottom of the VC with least votes doesn't mean you can win this (assuming you're town) because if 2 of the 3 right above you or 3 out the 5 above you are scum they still win when they gain parity. You can still be alive and lose, you know. USE YOUR HEAD. Like, why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us? Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us? What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)? What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?

CAN YOU PLEASE ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS ONE BY ONE?

In my opinion, not being on top of the votecount just means that I am a little more likely to win if my position does not change. I would like to point out that the votecount order is not that static.

Below are some answers to some Questions Almost50 Asked (QAA).

Chemical Element's answers to QAA

"why are you voting me, Lav, Raya and Casey right now? Do you have a case on any of us?"
My case against all that I am voting for except Casey is that none of you voted for WeyounsLastClone. Casey's case is that she mentioned that 1 out of 4 is not bad when referring to your votes, suggesting she might have known WeyounsLastClone was part of the mafia all along.

"Who would you rather dunk between the 4 of us?"
Between the four of you, I would rather dunk all.

"What would a red/green flip from any of these slot tell you about the alignment of the others (others as in the rest of the living players)?"
I believe that all three scum are those that I am voting for and Hiraki, which, until now, I did not notice I am not voting for, so if three of you flip green, I will have to reevaluate my hypothesis.

"What did you learn from the green flips of the last 2 dunks?? How come they didn't change your reads AT ALL (given that you didn't vote anyone new or unvote the people you've been voting forever)?"
I have learned nothing from those two green flips. It has neither disproved nor proved my hypothesis.

VOTE: Hiraki

I'll be having my dinner now, so expect to wait for some time before I reply any of your other posts.

[Chemical Elements]

@IV: I was ALREADY VOTING CE before that. I don't/didn't need a justification. Just look at his answer above. "I would rather dunk all four" coupled with "if 3 of them flip green then I will reconsider". Do you realize that 3 green flips takes us down to a 4-3 situation already? And he learnt nothing from the flips he was on? Why dunk someone you won't even gain any knowledge from their flip?

Because not dunking anyone guarantees a loss.

[Chemical Elements]

After thinking about the information that may be gained from each flip, I think Hiraki would be the optimal dunk as if they flip mafia, I can clear Almost50, allowing us to skip that dunk and go dunking the rest that were off WeyounsLastClone's wagon and Casey. If I am right, we win the game. If I am wrong, we end up in a 2 mafia to 3 town scenario, but I don't think we will get there.

[Chemical Elements]

If I were scum, I probably wouldn't be so supportive of any dunks. It is from this that I conclude that scum is unlikely to have bused WeyounsLastClone and were probably all off the wagon. If the majority decides to dunk me, the plan I laid out would no longer succeed. It is thus, assuming I am getting dunked soon, I give my final advice, which is to prioritise the players who were off the wagon and were, for no good reason, against dunking those who were not on the wagon.

[Chemical Elements]

But in this game if someone is highly voted it's very likely they're going down anyway. So I could easily see scum knowing that and all deciding to bus for town cred

I actually agree with that.

UNVOTE:

Now I am going to continue to read what I missed and see if I spot anything.

[Chemical Elements]

I was responding to Isis' 645 in the first quote. The second was also @Isis but could as well be directed at everyone.

In a Mafia game, you wait to see a flip, analyze and then decide where to vote next. In darts you just shoot and then shoot again hoping you hit the bullseye. The first dart has no bearing on your second, and neither has a bearing on your third shot, and that's what people seem to be doing. (Except for IV, I'd give him that)

Also, hello again; Raya

I'm having my doubts on how much we can analyse based on the flips. Since you came up with the suggestion, do you have any ideas?

[Chemical Elements]

It is ironic you asked that question yet you have no opinion on the last three lynches other than continue your plan.

I'm asking that question because I have no opinion on the last three dunks.

Since my plan was contigent on the idea that the mafia wouldn't support the dunk of their own teammate, now that Raya36 has pointed out that that may not be the case, I don't have a plan.

[Chemical Elements]

...

UNVOTE: Nono
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
UNVOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki

are you really just unvoting everyone on the Wey wagon?

Yes. My hypothesis is that no scum are on the wagon. To test the hypothesis, we could dunk two people that are not on the wagon. If both of them flips town, the hypothesis is wrong. If one of them flip scum, we continue to dunk more people who were off the wagon, I guess. If the two we dunk turn out to be town, I don't know what to do.

Why don't you think scum was on the wagon?

Because I wasn't able to think of a situation in which scum would have placed their vote on a partner in a game like this.

[Chemical Elements]

How come there's been no votecounts from you this game, Fredrick? You're usually so on the ball.

My posting of votecounts was way too extravagant and too time-consuming and had made me myopic when attempting to solve this game. Also, I don't see any use for them.

[Chemical Elements]

Here's a little absurdity. I'm still at post #800.