Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Incognito]

PF: I'll try to do something more elaborate like PBPAs of both you and MafiaSSK/eldarad if I can get my internet access up and running at home just to make it more likely that we close this game out today instead of going any longer. But like Elmo said, this really does feel like a forced town win anyway at this point.

[Elmo]

Hmm. Scot's movement around Erg0 seems different to Tar. Very clearly gunning for Erg0's death. It might be that he's acting more aggressively because there's already one dead scum; there seems a marked change in his stance towards me over night 1. Scot's last comment about me on day 1 is "The elmo wagon is intriguing. I don't really have a solid meta on him, so I don't know what to think of him...I could see him as scum...". His second post day 2 votes Tar and defends me against him. Interestingly, he later says that if Tar's town, then "I would have to take a long look at elmo as well as some other players". That sounds inconsistent to me; if Tar's town, there is no basis to be more suspicious of me, and indeed he defended me against Tar's case two posts before. I think what was happening was that he was simply flipping his real point of view round; that is, Elmo's likely town because of Tar's behaviour towards him. It looks a little like he investigated me or Tar N1; he did seem a little curious about me D1. He also says "If Tar is scum as I think he is, then I would view elmo as protown" which ties nicely to what he would be thinking with a guilty on Tar. It looks more that he got a guilty on Tar N1 to me.

The only time I can remember playing with Glork as town, he insisted that the doc protect the claimed cop instead of trying any WIFOM. Perhaps it's not entirely analogous, but I'd lean away from believing he didn't jailkeep Scot unless someone brought up something specific and convincing. Perhaps if Glork didn't, he got a framed guilty on cow.. I can't see any other possible result fitting his actions. It all seems academic at this point.

N1 - Guilty on Tar (possibly innocent on me?)
N2 - Roleblocked by Glork(?) / Framed Guilty on cow?
N3 - Guilty on Erg0

That's my reading at the moment.

---

As per usual 3-to-a-mini assumption, we're probably got one mafioso left. I can't see framer+GF working as a setup, really. Roleblocker might be possible.. my balance knowledge is a bit shaky, heh. That would double the chance of screwing up the cop as opposed to a goon, though. Is that balanced? I can't think of any other common roles.. the only thing I'd be really worried about is a one-shot extra kill, or something like that. Don't see it as likely, though.

---

Incognito's attack on Glork D1 looks odd, but not contrived; I think regardless of his alignment, he genuinely misinterpreted what Glork said. The manner in which he attacked him seems townish, too; I've rarely seen scum who will freely chose to attack someone experienced when there's no momentum against them. Incognito's Glork vote on D2 could be viewed as trying to fuel a wagon against Glork in a vacuum, but it looks more like he previously had decent reasons to be suspicious of Glork and is just having them confirmed by Tar's claim. He unvotes an hour later, saying "While I'm glad that my P.E. #1 was potentially investigated as guilty, it bothers me that my P.E. #2 happened to be the investiga

tor

" which seems about right, to me. Glork's D1 play was certainly tricky-to-read.. I suppose I'm biased towards him because he spoke up for me. His apology in Glork's direction certainly strikes me as genuine. I don't understand the Tar hammer; that's the only thing that sticks out in my mind as odd, but it's not really enough to be significant. Literally nothing past day 3 strikes me as scummy; if he's mafia, he's real slick.

Eldarad's case on Incognito seems to revolve around him voting off-wagon to avoid heat from my mislynch rather than genuinely suspecting Glork. It's a common enough pattern, but there was enough reason to be suspicious of Glork; Patrick, for example, was giving him heat. You'd have to show that his attack was insincere, and I don't see a basis for that, right now.

Hum, reading though: Incognito, in 734, you said that you'd rather not put Erg0 because "he himself might self-vote to prevent us from gaining any additional information from today". That was the day

after

hammering Tar, where in 597 you said that "It doesn't really matter when the hammer happened; we derived enough information from today to figure things out from here". Can you describe what changed between those two? When do you currently consider it germane to end the day?

It occurred that my reasoning means that my read on Incognito is more important than PF / Eldarad; I'll try and post questions for them tomorrow. I'd like both of them, Eldarad in particular, to comment on Incognito's alignment.

[Incognito]

Hum, reading though: Incognito, in 734, you said that you'd rather not put Erg0 because "he himself might self-vote to prevent us from gaining any additional information from today". That was the day

after

hammering Tar, where in 597 you said that "It doesn't really matter when the hammer happened; we derived enough information from today to figure things out from here". Can you describe what changed between those two? When do you currently consider it germane to end the day?

Sure. On Day 2, everyone's actions and reactions surrounding the Glork/Tar bout had already been measured as best and as genuinely as they could be. For example, judging by Ether's reaction, it seemed like she genuinely believed Tar over Glork at first but then switched over to believing Glork over Tar when she realized how lurky Tarhalindur became. This seemed like a very town reaction to me, and I pretty much had Ether checked off as obvtown from that point on. Another example was Erg0's "epiphany". His epiphany looked more contrived and looked more like a way to ease his way away from Glork and onto Tar to try and appear pro-town when the tide's were shifting, which was part of the reason I questioned him about it. Therefore, he looked more like scum at that point. hasdgfas's actions around the Tar/Glork stuff looked weird to me too, but he turned out to be town. Basically, I felt like any additional reactions after Tar admitted to being scum wouldn't be very alignment-revealing, so I didn't have a problem hammering at that point. Admittedly, I guess another part of it was nerves though: I felt pretty stupid believing the wrong side between Glork and Tar and felt like I had to at least redeem myself by hammering the scum.

On Day 4 there were two separate things going on:

1) After hasdgfas flipped town when it seemed likely that scotmany12 had investigated him during Night 2, I was a bit paranoid that maybe scot wasn't who I thought he was. I hinted at that here when Mizzy questioned me about it:

Cross-posted.

Incog, your post #719 and #722 have some pretty good points against Erg0, which thus far he has failed to defend against effectively, but I don't even see so much as a minor FoS. Why is that?

Consider my vote to be on him already. I didn't want to place an immediate vote on him like I did last time with hasdgfas because I held an assumption about someone in this game that I'm not really sure holds true anymore so I'd rather wait before placing my vote.

I wanted to wait and see what else scotmany12 and Erg0 would have to say to figure out if scot really was to be trusted even though I felt pretty sure that Erg0 was scum.

2) The day was fresh, and we still had plenty of time before deadline. I also wanted to wait to see if any additional information would come out of Erg0's reactions to others, other's reactions to him, and so on.

[Incognito]

Oh and I still won't have any home access 'til next Friday

(stupid ISPs),

but I'll probably be at the library tomorrow to work on those promised PBPAs.

[eldarad]

If we're looking for slips, I think post 27 is something of a slip on Incog's part. Or rather, the explanation of what post 27 meant is perhaps more revealing than Incog intended.
In Post 252 Incog explains that:

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

My hunch is that the explanation is more revealing now than it was at the time. Now that we know Patrick and Ether are town, it changes the character of this post somewhat. I reckon this is Incog-scum using the in-joke to try to signal to Patrick and Ether that "he is a townie too".
It just doesn't wash with me.

The second major part of my suspicion of Incog is indeed his avoidance of the competing wagons. I think what I said in post 723 still holds true

Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" - Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0.

I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.

~~~
Incog, why did you vote so early Today? What was the PF vote intended to achieve?

~~~
PokerFace, I can't answer for MafiaSSK, because I am not him. I think it is unreasonable for you to demand that I tell you what MafiaSSK was thinking at the time.
If someone is lurking

and is then replaced

I don't see how you can point to the lurking and call it a scumtell when the replacement isn't lurking.

Also SSK's playstyle is related to his alignment which in turn is related to yours.

This can't be true. If playstyle was linked to alignment I would be playing exactly the same way as MafiaSSK was playing. In addition, all vanilla townies would play the same way because their role PMs - and therefore their playstyle - would be identical.

He has only used this style in this game and one other he says. And he was scum in the other game. Scum in other game where he used this style gives good chance he is scum trying to use that lurking style to protect himself here. Do the math I can't believe you don't see what I'm getting at there.

OK. SSK was scum in the other game where he used a similar playstyle.
In that other game, he referred to this game as an example of a game where he had used the style before. So, in the other game he was scum and he used this game

as a defence

. Why would he do that if he knew that he would eventually flip as scum? The only reason to reference this game is to demonstrate to the other game's players "look, I play this way as town"

I am also puzzled as to why you think SSK would have two completely distinct playstyles - a "townie" playstyle and a "scum" playstyle. Don't you think that would make him VERY easy to read?

You can't ignore stuff from someone a replacement replaced. Do you expect to get a clean slate Elderad?

I was quite specific. I can't read SSK's mind. So when you ask me "why did SSK do that?" I can't answer any better than you can.

You are not activly pushing incognito's lynch today and you weren't doing it well enough yesterday either. You didn't vote him and I don't believe you successfully made him look like scum to anyone.

I fully intended to vote for Incog Today, and still do so. What is it with you telling me how to use my vote?! When I'm ready I'll vote.

[PokerFace]

If we're looking for slips, I think post 27 is something of a slip on Incog's part. Or rather, the explanation of what post 27 meant is perhaps more revealing than Incog intended.
In Post 252 Incog explains that:

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

My hunch is that the explanation is more revealing now than it was at the time. Now that we know Patrick and Ether are town, it changes the character of this post somewhat. I reckon this is Incog-scum using the in-joke to try to signal to Patrick and Ether that "he is a townie too".
It just doesn't wash with me.

The second major part of my suspicion of Incog is indeed his avoidance of the competing wagons. I think what I said in post 723 still holds true

Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" - Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0.

I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.

Well I can't say I see that as a slip. Looks like they are just joking about the odds. I suppose that could be a way of warming up to Patrick and Ether but not a slip.

_________________

PokerFace, I can't answer for MafiaSSK, because I am not him. I think it is unreasonable for you to demand that I tell you what MafiaSSK was thinking at the time.

PokerFace, whilst I share MafiaSSK's role PM, I am not privy to how his thought process works, nor do I share his playstyle preferences. If you wanted to know why MafiaSSK voted the way he did on Day 1 you should have asked him at the time.
Why wait until now to bring it up? How do you expect me to answer for MafiaSSK in the way you require?

I asked SSK this a bunch of times during days 1 and 2. feel free to look back at my posts and see that I did indeed do that. SSK lurked and never answered. And so if you know him and therefore yourself both to be town, I ask if you can think of any reason "any" townie would ever vote someone they think is town for an entire day. Can you think of any reason?

If you can't answer for him then you can answer from an objective point of view can't you? Can you think of any town reason to vote somebody you think is town? Yes or No? Please quit avoiding that question and answer it. I sure can't think of any answer for that. Only answer I can see is that would be strong distancing for a scum SSK to use.

Also SSK's playstyle is related to his alignment which in turn is related to yours.

This can't be true. If playstyle was linked to alignment I would be playing exactly the same way as MafiaSSK was playing. In addition, all vanilla townies would play the same way because their role PMs - and therefore their playstyle - would be identical.

Playstyle is linked to player and then linked to alignment. That playstyle makes SSK scum. And you replaced SSK. You seem to like to push the banner of "He did it not me. I should get off with a clean slate." If you want I'll see if i can take a look at your own scum playstyle and see if I can bring that up here. And besides, there were times you seemed to lurk off and not respond to some of my posts imediatly, so perhaps in a way you lurked but certainly not as much as SSK did.

He has only used this style in this game and one other he says. And he was scum in the other game. Scum in other game where he used this style gives good chance he is scum trying to use that lurking style to protect himself here. Do the math I can't believe you don't see what I'm getting at there.

OK. SSK was scum in the other game where he used a similar playstyle.
In that other game, he referred to this game as an example of a game where he had used the style before. So, in the other game he was scum and he used this game

as a defence

. Why would he do that if he knew that he would eventually flip as scum? The only reason to reference this game is to demonstrate to the other game's players "look, I play this way as town".

I already gave my opinion to that

I more so thought he was referencing us in an attempt to clear himself via context for the "Akatsuki" game. Our game is ongoing and so no one knows his alignment here except him. Just before Mafiassk left us here the general concensus was that he had a good chance of being town. When looking at an ongoing game where you have not card flipped, all you can get is a general consensus of the views others have of you. So basically you are using the views of others to clear you and since your alignment and the alignments of others viewing you is unknown, it is not evidence that can entirely clear you in any game. In the "Akatsuki" game he mentioned his stategies as working to find scum. But he wasn't really finding scum in our game with the strategy nor was he really using it for that purpose in the "Akatsuki" game. He never deeply went into who he thought was scum. He only briefly said why he thought Glork had a better chance of being scum over Tarhalindur. All his lurking ever did was keep him hidden from criticism until someone pointed it out. If you think my view is incorrect tell me. And now that i think about it, we should probably watch how this topic is discussed since I don't want to see any modkillings involved with the aspect of people talking about ongoing games elsewhere. Modkills is an unsportsman like thing to happen in any game.

_________________

You are not activly pushing incognito's lynch today and you weren't doing it well enough yesterday either. You didn't vote him and I don't believe you successfully made him look like scum to anyone.

I fully intended to vote for Incog Today, and still do so. What is it with you telling me how to use my vote?! When I'm ready I'll vote.

Right deadline is monday night. You are sure taking your time. Nothing much jumps my radar about incognito. I can only think of 2 questions for him.

@Incognito,

How often do you see a framer in a normal game? I seem to remember Adel ranting about its rareness in MD, and yet you said you knew it was here and miller could not be? Also...

Sure. On Day 2, everyone's actions and reactions surrounding the Glork/Tar bout had already been measured as best and as genuinely as they could be. For example, judging by Ether's reaction, it seemed like she genuinely believed Tar over Glork at first but then switched over to believing Glork over Tar when she realized how lurky Tarhalindur became. This seemed like a very town reaction to me, and I pretty much had Ether checked off as obvtown from that point on. Another example was Erg0's "epiphany". His epiphany looked more contrived and looked more like a way to ease his way away from Glork and onto Tar to try and appear pro-town when the tide's were shifting, which was part of the reason I questioned him about it. Therefore, he looked more like scum at that point. hasdgfas's actions around the Tar/Glork stuff looked weird to me too, but he turned out to be town. Basically, I felt like any additional reactions after Tar admitted to being scum wouldn't be very alignment-revealing, so I didn't have a problem hammering at that point.

Admittedly, I guess another part of it was nerves though: I felt pretty stupid believing the wrong side between Glork and Tar and felt like I had to at least redeem myself by hammering the scum.

So right here you say dropping the hammer was in a sence done in order to redeem yourself. Were you trying to make up to Glork the person, for your persistance/mistake or did that part of you want to make things up to everybody? Honestly Admitting something, scum tend to avoid. But why would a townie want to make up for something?

Also Looking over the skill of players here and considering Erg0 would still read as scum should he get investigated, I doubt your assumption he could win as scum all by himself during days 4-6 with or without scot alive. I further doubt it since I know his actions wouldn't have been a bus of his scum buddy (Since I'm not scum).

_________________

But I agree that things really look like a forced town win, though I'd still like to win it today and be alive. After all I won't be able to enjoy the after party too much if I'm dead. I doubt many strippers will be into necrophila (or feeling up my lifeless corpse) no matter how much my will pays them.

Ok yay I took that joke a little too far, but in a way I can still get scum eliminated today. I am surprised no one has picked up on it yet.

I thought about lying about my claim and seeing if you would still want to go through with it Elderad. Seeing whether you would be willing to do things like "hammer me" or sit on the sidelines. Seeing whether you'd follow through or just allow my lynch. At the moment that is still something I'd like know. After all, what have I to gain as scum? Nothing since you'd just lynch me tomorrow and I'd still be a dead loser. If I am to be lynched today I want Elderad to be certain such a thing is the best thing and I'd prefer he was the one to hammer me.

If I am lynched today I would like Elderad to hammer me. I want him to be the last vote on my wagon. You should be able to guess why I'm saying this unless you are really dence. I practically forshadowed it afterall. Did I not word it well enough?

Just because I thought about it doesn't mean I didn't do it. Elmo said balance looked slightly off and he was right in a sence, but not in the correct sence since I townie like me holds the missing card. After all what town role would want to be hammered by scum?

Get the picture yet? Thats why I want elderad to hammer me. I'm a super saint! Well my theme name is

Obnoxious Drunk

. You know, that guy at the bar who always cops a feel from the dancers and picks a fight with another patron every time he is there. That's me. My unruly nature allows me to take another player out of club with me. And the person that comes with me is the hammer dropper. That's why I want elderad to drop the hammer or be the final vote on my wagon, after all only 2 votes would be needed for half majority at deadlines. (I already checked with mod as to whether the govenor or BOUNCER's skills would pardon just me and that the guy that hammered me would still die, but that isn't the case. The pardon would protect us both since the super saint kill wouldn't go off until after I was truly lynched.)

I know lying as town is bad, But unlike all the game ruiners I hunt on night 0 as vig, my lie will not take down some inocent in a phony cop claim, or some other bad gambit like that. I will still be dieing and not wasting the towns time over the next couple of days. The lie was not done with the mal intent to save myself or risk everything on one roll of the dice. I always have a backup plan or an ace even further up my sleeve beyond just this. I had an ace up my sleve in Newbie 520 and in Clerks Mafia. How many times did I reference those games here? Worse comes to worse, I can self hammer/vote and take just myself out so that you guys can decide on things evenly tomorrow. That's my backup plan so that my actions don't further hurt the town. After all, you can use what happened today and the intentions everyone displayed here in these circumstances in order to judge who is scum tomorrow. So even if I die voteing myself, there will still be a tomorrow and the town will not be overly crippled wasting time with some almost game ruining prospect. Whatever you do Mizzy, do

NOT

use your pardon skill on me!

I lie in order to see reactions. Elderad's reaction did not involve puting a case on incognito quickly. He is still taking his time. So he must indeed be scum hoping to get through to tomorrow where he can keep the more openminded of Elmo or Mizzy alive so they'll lynch incognito for them.

I doubt either will listen to him with these indecisive views.

Which makes we wonder about Incog's motivation for that vote.
But yeah. My current plan is lynch Incog Today. If the game doesn't end, then we lynch PokerFace Tomorrow unless some new information comes to light.

Can't see why there would be consideration of elmo or mizzy being scum at all today. Elderad needs to hammer me before the day is out. Worse comes to worse, I can self hammer like mentioned, but regardless I don't really suspect incognito at this moment so Elderad needs to either persuade me and the others to lynch incognito or hammer me. Ether way I too think the Town is wining this game.

[eldarad]

vote Incognito

Well I can't say I see that as a slip. Looks like they are just joking about the odds. I suppose that could be a way of warming up to Patrick and Ether but not a slip.

Why don't you let Incog answer for himself, hmm? It's interesting that you can see the possibility that it is Incog buddying up to two townies though.

If you can't answer for him then you can answer from an objective point of view can't you? Can you think of any town reason to vote somebody you think is town? Yes or No?

What? You want a list of hypothetical reasons? I can do that but it would be completely pointless. For example
1) SSK wasn't paying much attention to this game
2) SSK was seeing if anyone would try to form a wagon on Erg0 since there was already a vote there
3) SSK thought Erg0 was scum but didn't want to say so outright to avoid being NK'ed

But without knowing the *actual* reason, what's the point of this exercise?

Playstyle is linked to player and then linked to alignment.

How is playstyle linked to alignment?

Your opinion that you quoted just then contrasts sharply with your attack on me using that information from the other game. And then, when I use the same information to show how your attack is without merit ("he used this game as a defence") you say how we shouldn't be discussing it at all.
If you think that you shouldn't be using it as part of a case on me. You'll notice that I have not commented on it at all before now.

~~~
I'm not hammering PokerFace Today.

[Incognito]

~At the library, responding to questions~

Incog, why did you vote so early Today? What was the PF vote intended to achieve?

Um, dude. If you look back at the post/quote that I quoted when I placed my vote on PF today, you would know why I voted for PF right off the bat. I didn't think that you/MafiaSSK were scum based on a number of reasons I cited within thread, and I thought that PF was. See below:

QFT. I still don't think eldarad is scum though. His semi-attack on me is a bit strange, but I think it's more misguided than scummy at this point. I don't usually link people together before seeing alignments revealed but since

some

people seem to want to link me all over the place, I'll reveal what I'm thinking: At this point, I think we're dealing with an Erg0/PF scum team mainly due to PF's treatment of Tarhalindur during Day 1, Erg0's extremely late D3 deadline push of a PF-wagon (probable distancing but just late enough to not result in a lynch and not be considered bussing), and PF's general lurkiness. His inability to commit a vote to Glork or Tarhalindur despite mentioning his pro-Glorkscum stance and then eventual switch to a Tarhalindur-scum stance is also pretty telling.

As for what it was meant to achieve: Nothing more than the obvious. With the likelihood of there being only one scum left, I obviously wanted to see PF lynched today since I thought he was scum.

@Incognito,

How often do you see a framer in a normal game? I seem to remember Adel ranting about its rareness in MD, and yet you said you knew it was here and miller could not be?

Actually, on my old website where I played Mafia games, Framers were pretty commonplace. Lol, in fact, I was framed by one once while I was a Stalker (Tracker variant), and I ended up stalking the Framer who was framing me and saw him doing it to me haha.

So right here you say dropping the hammer was in a sence done in order to redeem yourself. Were you trying to make up to Glork the person, for your persistance/mistake or did that part of you want to make things up to everybody? Honestly Admitting something, scum tend to avoid. But why would a townie want to make up for something?

It was more to redeem myself to my own self. I dislike being wrong in general so the fact that I was so off in my stance on Tar/Glork after convincing myself using logic that a Lepton's Gambit simply wouldn't be pulled in this type of game really bothered me.

Get the picture yet? Thats why I want elderad to hammer me. I'm a super saint! Well my theme name is

Obnoxious Drunk

.

I was actually going to question you about what you seemed to be hinting at when I was gonna do my PBPA of you and eldarad today. I figured you might be trying to hint to something when you mentioned that eldarad should hammer and when you questioned Mizzy about her role's details. Did you breadcrumb at this role at some earlier point within the game? If you're really a supersaint and you don't receive the number of votes required for a full majority's lynch today, does the person who placed the last vote on you still die along with you?

The way I see it is if PF is scum fake-claiming SS and eldarad refuses to hammer, then PF might choose to not self-hammer to try and draw a pardon from Mizzy to live another day as she's left wondering whether or not he's telling the truth or if he's lying about his role. And with eldarad insisting that I'm scum, I could see him refusing to hammer which makes this a pretty good scum fake-claim at this point. Bleh. If PF is town and telling the truth, then eldarad has to be scum, and he'll still use his "insistence" that I'm scum as reason to not want to hammer PF. The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

Oooor if we do decide to go through with PF's lynch, PF, will you definitely be around at deadline? If so, then if you're town and eldarad is scum refusing to hammer, then I'd say self-hammering, like you suggested above, would be the way to go since that would at least prevent the last person to vote for you from dying. If you don't self-hammer, then Mizzy should not pardon you, and she should allow your lynch to go through. We just need your confirmation that you'll be around at deadline, or we could probably do this well before deadline if someone else votes for PF right now so that no uncertainty about the plan of action exists.

[eldarad]

The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

I agree with this if people are fairly happy with PokerFace's claim.

From my POV, if PokerFace is town then if I hammer the town loses since we lose 3 townies - 2 from the lynch plus a NK - which leaves 1 scum vs 1 townie at dawn.

My next step - depending on how Elmo and Mizzy reacted - was likely going to be:
"I'm not hammering PokerFace. If you think that makes me scum, lynch me instead"

If we lynch Incog Today and I'm still alive Tomorrow I'll hammer PF. I promise.
If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

[Incognito]

If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

If we agree to this plan of action, and I'm not chosen to be today's lynch, then yeah, I will hammer PF tomorrow if I'm still around.

[eldarad]

In fact, unless Mizzy or Elmo are scum, that guarantees a town win.

1) Lynch me Today, Tomorrow Incog hammers PokerFace;
2) Lynch Incog Today, Tomorrow I hammer PokerFace.

If one of us refuses to hammer PokerFace, just lynch us instead.

If PokerFace is lying scum then we will hammer him Tomorrow and win.
If PokerFace is telling the truth and one of {eldarad, Incog} are scum, then the scum will be killed either by lynching Today or by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow (or, more likely, refusing to hammer the Supersaint - so then everyone votes for the person refusing to hammer)

Have I missed something here?

[Incognito]

I still think you're being thick, eldarad, but meh.

[eldarad]

I still think you're being thick, eldarad, but meh.

Heh. Actually, your reaction to this makes me think that PokerFace is the scum rather than you.
But I don't see the point of taking the chance of hammering PokerFace Today if he's telling the truth.

[Elmo]

Oh, wow. I think that provably breaks it. Working on checking it now.

[Mizzy]

Hmm. I'm not really sure what option I like but I do agree that if we play carefully then we have an automatic town win.

I'm going to wait on Elmo's next post to see how I feel about things since I trust his towniness.

[Elmo]

It are kinda like a finite state machine, if you're curious.

I = INNOCENT
T = TOWNIE
M = MAFIOSO
PokerFace = REAL SUPERSAINT (S) OR FAKE SUPERSAINT (F)

If PokerFace is town, the current state is IISTM.
If PokerFace is scum, the current state is IIFTT.
I've explored the other strategies; I'll just show recommended moves rather than all possible ones. This is pessimistic; it only details the worst possible case. For example, we might hypothetically lynch the vanilla-claiming mafioso today.

[col]PF Town[col]PF Scum0[col]IISTM[col]IIFTT1[col]IISM[col]IIFT2[col]ISM[col]IFT3[col]I[col]IT
0. Initial state.
1. Lynch a vanilla claimer.
2. An innocent is killed.
If PF is town: If the mafioso kills S, they are left with IIM, which is autowin. They must kill I to leave ISM.
If PF is scum: If he kills T, he is left with IIF, which is autowin. He must kill I to leave IFT.
3. Vanilla claimer hammers PokerFace.
If PF is town: The mafioso is force to hammer, and dies, leaving one innocent. If he doesn't hammer, he's lynched, and dies.
If PF is scum: He dies.

I'm pretty sure that's right. I would go for eldarad's option 1. I don't see a potential problem with it, as long as we're all agreed before anything happens, and we're active near deadline. There are other things we could do, but nothing else that guarantees a win. As I understand it: I agree, Incogntio agress, Eldarad agrees, Mizzy is thinking, PokerFace hasn't commented.

It'd be nice for someone to check the above, if they were inclined to.

[PokerFace]

Well I can't say I see that as a slip. Looks like they are just joking about the odds. I suppose that could be a way of warming up to Patrick and Ether but not a slip.

Why don't you let Incog answer for himself, hmm? It's interesting that you can see the possibility that it is Incog buddying up to two townies though.

If you think I'm answering for incognito, I certainly am not. I see no way I'd gain from that. I more so wanted to give my opinion. I suppose incognito should give his now anyway.

If we're looking for slips, I think post 27 is something of a slip on Incog's part. Or rather, the explanation of what post 27 meant is perhaps more revealing than Incog intended.
In Post 252 Incog explains that:

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

My hunch is that the explanation is more revealing now than it was at the time. Now that we know Patrick and Ether are town, it changes the character of this post somewhat. I reckon this is Incog-scum using the in-joke to try to signal to Patrick and Ether that "he is a townie too".
It just doesn't wash with me.

The second major part of my suspicion of Incog is indeed his avoidance of the competing wagons. I think what I said in post 723 still holds true

Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" - Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0.

I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.

_________________

Playstyle is linked to player and then linked to alignment.

How is playstyle linked to alignment?

Your opinion that you quoted just then contrasts sharply with your attack on me using that information from the other game. And then, when I use the same information to show how your attack is without merit ("he used this game as a defence") you say how we shouldn't be discussing it at all.
If you think that you shouldn't be using it as part of a case on me. You'll notice that I have not commented on it at all before now.

~~~
I'm not hammering PokerFace Today.

Well since SSK ain't playing anymore I don't think you'll get modkilled so i guess I should have edited that quote so you could discuss it now.

_________________

Unvote, Vote: PokerFace

Yay the supersaint claim is the real lie. I'm vanilla town and yet town shouldn't lie so feel free to policy lynch me today under suspicion of being scum so that i'm not arround tomorrow. I don't want to be an easy mislynch in lylo so I thought I'd do this in order to get reactions from Elderad and Incognito in order to see who first got to the idea of lynching themself today and lynching anyone that refused to hammer me tomorrow. Scum wouldn't benefit from such a fake claim as this since they would still be around for a lynching tomorrow. Scum would have nothing to gain from these actions and I left that reminder in my lead up confessional hints. Its a pretty funny and yet useful claim when you look at it from my town point of view. i'm actually laughing right now since I have a good sence of humor. Sorry i made you do all that extra work there Elmo. Sorry for waisting your time some. I meant to post this confession earlier but got side tracked. I wonder why noboddy consiered the option of what happens if I get night killed? Elmo and Elderad both over looked that one and I'm not sure why. incog kinda overlooked it too I think, but not as much as the others did. the went much further into the math of the auto win.

I thought about keeping this farce up til Day 6 in hopes I'd get night killed tonight by scarred scum that would be daring to try to get Elmo lynched tomorrow since Mizzy is more obv town by balance matters and the fact there has been a long twighlight at the end of everyday. A Scum govenor would only be able to use their skill once so that long twighlight each day wouldn't be necessary or would at least have a set consistant time length as apposed to a varying time length since it has gone short and long before. I am a gambler tried and true, but not even I will risk a mafioso giving up and choosing to still hammer me anyway tomorrow. To have somebody win like that would be the ultimate dishonor.

I also don't want people to waste the town's time any further on such things today and tomorrow with only so much time left. Wasting time and ruining the game getting myself lynched by a "giving up" scum is too much a dishonor to immagine. I'd have to self vig myself on night 0 to atone for that one. Go ahead and lynch me today. If you guys want you can go ahead and lecture me about lying as town now or after the game. It is bad play that I hoped could bring out the true side of Elderad and Incognito without risking ruinging the game. The reactions they just displayed are confusing to me. They both made the town reaction of lets get one of us lynched today and the other lynched tomorrow. I did not see that coming. that has never happened wehn I ran this gambit before. So not even I am certain whose scum now so before I mess things up worse I definatly need to be lynched outa here. Do

not

pardon me. Elderad and Incognito can start their battle against each other today if they want, but I should still be the lynch today. I apoligize for my actions. I honestly thought I could out scum like this and so I justified them under to intention I would not ruin the game for the town. Since I can not risk the game getting ruined like that by my actions, I bid you adue and hope none of you shun me in the future and choose not to play with me or vig me on night zero. I basically ask for your forgiveness after this is all over.

Why couldn't this town gambit have worked like it did on IRC the last 2 times I tried it? I tried this gambit out twice about year ago on IRC. One time I was night killed and the town went on to win because the scum couldn't make the the other highly townie players look like scum, and the other time the final mafioso gave up openly and self voted himself on that day without the next day or night occuring. I so wish I had gotten lucky again. I guess the third time was the oposite of the charm.

If Elderad is town and Incognito is scum, I want Elderad alive tomorrow so that he can genuinly convince the others to vote Incognito Tomorrow. And if Elderad is Scum then a town Incognito should be able to get Elderad lynched tomorrow. I hanestly can't tell whose reaction is more telling. Incognito thought of the lynch one today idea and yet suggested I still self hammer. Elderad ran with the idea and mapped out how its an auto town win and yet I get the impression he read the riddle in my first warning that this would be the true lie.

I thought about lying about my claim and seeing if you would still want to go through with it Elderad. Seeing whether you would be willing to do things like "hammer me" or sit on the sidelines. Seeing whether you'd follow through or just allow my lynch. At the moment that is still something I'd like know. After all, what have I to gain as scum? Nothing since you'd just lynch me tomorrow and I'd still be a dead loser. If I am to be lynched today I want Elderad to be certain such a thing is the best thing and I'd prefer he was the one to hammer me.

Or perhaps he caught onto the idea of why I didn't want to live to see tomorrow. I implied that idea throughout my last post. Maybe I just want to see that impression so much so that I doubt my own acting skills. Since I feel biased, I honestly think I shouldn't decide. I guess I'll let Elmo or Mizzy be the final judge tomorrow. I think that's best.

The plan did not work in its 3rd try, and I do not have the nerve to risk not getting night killed in forum. I tried both the previous runs of this plan on IRC about a year ago. I was willing to risk going to night and not getting night killed on irc because games aren't documented there. Things are passed by word of mouth there, and thus there is a large level of chaos and low levels of regrets because things can be forgotten and tried again and again with equal amounts of sucess. Because this game is documented on forum I don't think I'll be able to do this again because people will just call my bluff. So A guy adimant about an all game ruiners must die on night 0 playstyle as vig, must self lynch himself here before he risks further damage to the game and his own reputation since his reputation is actually documented in forum.

I insist that I am not a hypocrite. A fake cop claim as town is something I'll never do. If you are going to fake claim as town you must be willing to make yourself the only causality should things go all to hell. My backup plans in Clerks Mafia and Newbie 520 had alot more layway. I didn't lie in 520, I really was Doc so I created and saved a plan that would out the scum later on, since I knew that they knew I was doc and no one else did. That plan would have been awesome but it was never used and necessary, a better plan was found. In Clerks Mafia I lied and said I was a little renowned role called a Security Guard/Camera. I was still able to no lynch and watch the 2 claimed vigs kill each other again should I decide to not decide. Another backup plan there was to lynch myself and get a draw. But a no lynch to tomorrow as the soul surviving townie after the lying SK and Vig cross killed each other, would have worked well. I was gauranteed a win in both those games so the gambits as town were easier while the gambit here was not. The third time truly is unlucky for me.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 907#884907
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 765#936765

Please lynch me now and feel free to lecture me later. Don't pardon me or refuse to lynch me anybody. I kinda need it at this point. later all.

[Mizzy]

Wait, you want to be lynched because of your

reputation

?

[PokerFace]

No I want be lynched out of not wanting to waist your guy's time tomorrow in lylo. I don't want to hurt the town beyond repair and ruin things in a lylo situation. I'd rather things had an equal footing tomorrow.

I can't follow through with the gambit and risk not dying over night because I figure that will hurt my reputation and make me just as bad as the game ruiners I vig on night zero. I admit that this is a game and we should have fun and not worry about crap like reputation and stupid mistakes people have made in the past, but even I can't do that sometimes.

Thought about claiming the supersaint thing at the start of the mass claims but i didn't want to risk another town player really being a super saint. that would have messed up things beyond repair. The super saint role is rare on irc, I've practically never seen that counterclaimed or fake claimed outside of me doing it. Maybe i should have waited for incog to do his PBPA perhaps that would have led to scum getting lynched, but I was worried he wouldn't have the time with the deadline and him moving and all. I suppose I could have said I'd loose the supersaint skill over night and not self vote but there's no way anyone would believe that. Not even I would believe that since this isn't a full on theme game. Or maybe I could have suggested the night kill idea and seen if I could further use that to get scum to nk me foolishly, like how things worked before. This gambit really has versatility and usefullness for the town and does look like a good idea when you think about it. But should give up and still hammer you, or call your bluff, its all over, town looses and i can't risk that happening here. I don't have the arrogance or will to take everything away from you guys like that. you and Elmo were still well intent on lynching me earlier after all so keeping me around to tomorrow would be scum's best idea and then trick someone into hammering me.

I tried my hardest to get Elmo and Mizzy to listen and lynch some boddy else. No matter what I did you guys were still intent on lynching me, so i guess I paniced a little and decided to try one of my old crazy IRC town gambits in order to see if somebody would give up and admit to being scum today like things went before. But things failed to work as plan and so part of me wants to give up now and not risk further damage.

Poker:

I'm kind of neutral on your comments to me from before. I don't agree with your assessment of SSK (I think he was just a stupid player who didn't feel like being helpful...he was replaced and there wasn't heat on him so I tend to think he was just busy and not scum.)

I am near positive that Elmo is town because of how badly people wanted him dead d1. Scum probably saw that as an easy town target and so I thought there would be at least two scum on his wagon even before I knew it was true. It wasn't distancing; people really wanted him dead. I also don't think expected a deadline lynch. I think that scum thought it would be a great way to get a townie dead the easy way without attracting attention...they could have said, "Oh, well, I was planning to remove my pressure vote when Elmo posted more but the deadline killed him."

PF, I <3 you, but I think you're the last scum.

I'm kinda frazzled right now, but I've been procrastinating for too long. I've reread some of the game.. we've got what, five days left? Damn, I'm actually going to have to do stuff now, aren't I

Can I just ask why anyone felt the need to comment on Mizzy's role? I've been sitting on that for a while. Thanks, Mizzy

I still prefer PF. I'm going to do my standard thing of going over the game again before voting, but it's mostly out of habit/discipline at this point. It just looks like a forced win from here unless I'm wrong about Incognito. *shrug*

On IRC things happen so fast and in real time that actual levels of discussion can't be hurt by these actions, but here in forum things can get hurt and i guess i just don't want to rish making things worse. I was going to get lynched by incog, elmo, and mizzy anyway it lookslike so I should have took that like a man not resorted to my gambit, but perhaps you guys can still see some good in it and you'll be willing to forgive me after the game. I have seen some players refuse to play with others over them running gambits/lies as town and I'd hate to not be able to play with any of you guys ever again.

So that's really pretty much it. I failed to convince you guys, paniced and tried to expose things unconventionally, don't have the nerve to take the idea the full length like I did before. If we were on irc I'd take things the full length to see if I could do it again and get the same level of cheers. Oh well. PF hates being vanilla townie. Its boring! So even I find the need to spice things up. Perhaps that part of me wanted to do this too.

[eldarad]

So...PokerFace, assuming we believe everything you've just said: who do you think is the last scum?

unvote

[eldarad]

I think PokerFace is lying scum.
His latest two posts suggest that he claimed Supersaint to save himself. He only unclaimed once I showed how the town were guaranteed to win by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow. He miscalculated slightly in that a townie would refuse to hammer because it could result in an auto-loss, but by waiting a Day we could turn that into a auto-win.

Scum wouldn't benefit from such a fake claim as this since they would still be around for a lynching tomorrow.

True, scum wouldn't benefit once we formed the plan. But initially, it may have seemed a good idea - you gamble being able to lynch me or Incog Tomorrow by saying that we have avoided hammering you.
You obviously thought that you were going to be lynched Today if nothing changed, so you tried to change things.

I wonder why noboddy consiered the option of what happens if I get night killed? Elmo and Elderad both over looked that one and I'm not sure why. incog kinda overlooked it too I think, but not as much as the others did. the went much further into the math of the auto win.

Do you think that Elmo is scum? Do you think that Mizzy is scum?
If not, how does scum NK'ing you Tonight change things?

[PokerFace]

No I don't think Elmo or Mizzy is scum. Said that about 50 times today i think. Mizzy's role doesn't make sence as scum by balance concerns and that would mean she pardoned a town Elmo on day one. I don't Elmo is scum because of Tar and Erg0 voting him with me and Patrick. Not sure why Tar and Erg0 thought to lynch Elmo over Cow. perhaps they want to try to lynch a power role since elmo didn't claim until it was late before deadline. Cow claimed vanilla so I'm betting the two of them wanted to go for more and frame cow next night. Scot investigating Elmo sounds reasonable if you consider his statments I'd look at elmo if Tar was innocent. I doubt both cops would be sane so maybe scot was banking on being insane should Tar turn up sane cop, or something like that. Either way, no I don't think Mizzy or Elmo is scum

Town lynching one of Incognito or Elderad today could have hit scum. And then Scum nking me would make a scum Elderad or a scum Incognito have to undertake the impossible task or trying to get Elmo or Mizzy lynched on Day 6. This gambit really worked well when I ran it on irc a year ago. Like I said before the mafia failed to make one of the obv town look guilty on the final day so the town still won.

In hind sight i think part of me wanted to draw the night kill or get the scum to give up flat out. When you've tried everything you kinda resort to the crazy ideas to try to get a last ditch effort of finding scum before you go. Only in hindsight do I consider a part of me panicing and wanting to save myself, but since my actions were at getting scum to out themselves I don't think that saving myself anymore was at all priority since saving myself would leave me here tomorrow for an easy mislynch. I did crazy antics in Clerks and even in Dynamite Stick Mafia when my life was in danger as town or when it down to the wire and nobody was really discussing anything but me.

@Elderad,

If I had to pick between you and incognito I guess I'd still lean towards you being the scum because of that other stuff I said today and because Incognito's day one play still looks genuine town to me. His hammer on Tar is the only thing that ever bugged me. Hammering Tar for one's self pride is different from hammering for the rest of the town or to suck up to Glork. Do you possibly think the comments I mentioned earlier could have been Incognito buddying up to Patrick and Ether? If you think Incognito is scum then what do you make of his day 1 play where he went for Glork at the end and still felt the need to comment on Cow's nilla claim?

I'd like Elmo and Mizzy to answer this question too so i can get their view point of incognito's day one play.

@Elderad, again

Do you want to comment on Incog's day 2 persistance and push on Glork then hammer of Tar? Also why aren't you voting me right now Elderad if you think I'm scum?

@Incognito,

If you did or even just partially did that PBPA of me and Elderad, I'd like to see it.

Perhaps I should unvote myself and try to figure out which of Elderad and Incognito is scum from here on out. Suicide this early does seem off, i can still help things and always re-vote myself just before deadline so that there isn't a no lynch. No lynch today looks wrong in every way shape and form at this point. And suicide this early looks bad in a town perspective considering some MD threads I have been reading. As long as i'm not arround tomorrow for an easy mislynch. Elderad vs Incognito starting there thing today is still fine by me.

Unvote

[PokerFace]

EBWOP:
I did crazy antics in Clerks when i had trouble picking which one was the SK faking vig and which was the real vig. Even in Dynamite Stick Mafia when my life was in danger meaning me and Elmo both "lit" our selves I thought of a crazy conspiracy theory to justify who i would be blowing up with me. Part of me wanted Elmo to blow someone up instead and maybe part of me wanted to live to endgame or deal the final blow on scum for fame and because a condition of the game required one towni being alive at endgame.

I should report things more factially even though I'm in a rush real life wise right now.

[eldarad]

No I don't think Elmo or Mizzy is scum. Said that about 50 times today i think.

I just wanted to check that you hadn't changed your mind.
So, we're ALL on the same page - there are 2 innocents and 3 non-cleared players, of which 1 is scum.

Town lynching one of Incognito or Elderad today could have hit scum. And then Scum nking me would make a scum Elderad or a scum Incognito have to undertake the impossible task or trying to get Elmo or Mizzy lynched on Day 6.

And you're concerned about this situation arising?! That Incogscum or Eldscum would go into the last Day as the only unconfirmed player and might win?
You're a joke. If you'd tried to tell me that Elmo or Mizzy *might* be scum then at least your logic would be consistent. I'd actually buy the argument that Mizzy and Elmo aren't *cleared* as such.

Do you want to comment on Incog's day 2 persistance and push on Glork then hammer of Tar? Also why aren't you voting me right now Elderad if you think I'm scum?

I was waiting for you to answer the question I asked you, that you answered just now.
And no, I don't feel like answering your questions right now. Die scum.

vote PokerFace

[PokerFace]

Town lynching one of Incognito or Elderad today could have hit scum. And then Scum nking me would make a scum Elderad or a scum Incognito have to undertake the impossible task or trying to get Elmo or Mizzy lynched on Day 6.

And you're concerned about this situation arising?! That Incogscum or Eldscum would go into the last Day as the only unconfirmed player and might win?

No I think you are misreading that. Should the scum give up here. Not NK me and choose to hammer me tomorrow sorrowfully while giving up, they would win. I ain't a super saint so they would win while giving up. I admit I doubt many people would have the resolve to act in such a manner, but I wouldn't put it past some people I've played with. I think Xtoxm would be someone to act like that. i have not played with you guys enough to calculate if any of you guys would do that. Xtoxm kinda gave up in Clerks Mafia and yet followed through.

Its basically a calculation of how far would someone be willing to fight for it. Normally people would indeed fight to the last man and nk me. Scum got no reason to believe town would lie and Gambit so I considered taking things further. Maybe I should have for glory of a successfully claim, but failure by the previous means would be a pretty bad dishonor. Think you could answer my question now? Voting me now looks like you're trying to lynch me quickly in order to avoid the qiuestions and just get to tomorrow. we got til monday so let's try and get something out of me thinks.