Micro 1006 | Hydrogen-9121 | The End

[Vanderscamp]

FIRST

[Vanderscamp]

We should push for elminations today. Not for a NL and also not with the normal random-elmination(RE, as opposed to the former RL) strategy.

The setup is 100% open to scum, who know which PR can can catch them and want town to not use their free moselimination.


We stop at E-1 and before hammering let the person claim
If they are counterclaimed, we hammer on them. The other PR is probably useless to us but still is utilisable as a clear to lead the following day phase. Even if we hammer the real PR, it is as bad regardless.

So, we should talk as much as possible as this is a setup where the PRs only matter day two but where we as a town should put deep pressure on each other and scum from the get-go since we can't protect the investigative PR with a role regardless, so we're they're only useful for finding a scum member and dying the next night phase anyway.

If at E-1 they go un-counterclaimed (unCC'd) we unvote and let them lead the elimination today (again at E-1 we let the person claim).

No matter what, the PR is useless when it comes to finding both Mafia or WW. We should be hunting instantly and sharing thoughts.

Yeah I completely agree with this.
I'm guessing when you say random elimination you're talking about the informal process of hammering people at will?

[Vanderscamp]

If we play passive and scum hits a PR on night phase 1, we are potentially screwed in entirety as the results from the other PR meam absolutely nothing during day 2 regardless (si ce we don't know which type of scum it is)

It wouldn't mean absolutely nothing, if they have a "clear" on someone their chance of being scum gets cut in half.

[Vanderscamp]

I haven't played with anyone here before, should be fun.
Anyone here a total newb? Myself and the other guy are experienced, let me know if you have any questions.
Conversation hasn't really started yet, so it's random vote time. Obviously, the guy above me can't be scum, his avatar is too cute. Perhaps it's a ploy, though...

Who is the other guy?

[Vanderscamp]

lynch

Someone is getting a permaban.
Say your prayers!

Roughly how serious is this?
I'm guessing not very but with a grain of truth that it should be avoided?

[Vanderscamp]

you

The chances are 1/5 if you mean the PR that can catch the type of scum but there's both Cop and Seer regardless if I understand the setup correctly.

So the odds are 40% not 25% but are 20% for the PR that cpuld physically have caught (and we won't know either way if a PR dies Night One unless the other found a guilty or wolf read)

Yep, that's what i meant.

But most effective play for mafia who getting killed then is claim PR which they fear (Mafia claim Cop, Werewolf claim Seer). They dying anyway and have nothing to lose, but can reveal PR. It's still 1vs1 though.

So it's impossible to kill mafia without revealing PR right now, as they WILL fakeclaim, if they are somewhat competent.

Not super helpful for you to have said this

[Vanderscamp]

If Not_Mafia can't control himself and hold back from hammering as town, that is a severe violation. I don't want to be accused of OGI so I won't discuss the implications of that. However, it is 100% anti-town to hammer before the voted has a chance to claim in this setup even if you are one of the two PRs.

Yes. It's anti-town.
No, he still doing that.

We shouldn't cower out of voting just because someone has a meta of hammering as any alignment. It's them who should cower out of doing so.

As long as no one at E-1, we are fine. We can ask claims on E-2 without much danger.


And yes, i am Town.

This is not the solution.
If I get there I will refuse to claim at E-2, I'm not going to be part of an obviously worse strategy just to accommodate for town (not that we even know that that is the case) who are intentionally playing poorly.

[Vanderscamp]

I also townread Enchant not for what they said page 1 (or he, pronoun not revealed so I will stick to they) but because they follow up by consistently explaining that they support the lynch today just that E-2 is preferable to E-1 as we have a player with habit of hammering regardless. This shows me also that the discussion of odds was regarding how i stantly wrong things can go if the E-1 outs as a PR.

I don't think enchant is scummy but I don't think this is a good reason to townread someone.

[Vanderscamp]

lynch

Someone is getting a permaban.
Say your prayers!

Roughly how serious is this?
I'm guessing not very but with a grain of truth that it should be avoided?

It has racistic subtext.
I am crazy enough to take down Batman, but BLM? No - thank you!

Sure, I'm more asking how important it is to avoid using that word, I've used it for a very long time and there's a pretty decent chance I'll accidentally say it.

[Vanderscamp]

If Not_Mafia can't control himself and hold back from hammering as town, that is a severe violation. I don't want to be accused of OGI so I won't discuss the implications of that. However, it is 100% anti-town to hammer before the voted has a chance to claim in this setup even if you are one of the two PRs.

Yes. It's anti-town.
No, he still doing that.

We shouldn't cower out of voting just because someone has a meta of hammering as any alignment. It's them who should cower out of doing so.

As long as no one at E-1, we are fine. We can ask claims on E-2 without much danger.


And yes, i am Town.

This is not the solution.
If I get there I will refuse to claim at E-2, I'm not going to be part of an obviously worse strategy just to accommodate for town (not that we even know that that is the case) who are intentionally playing poorly.

I agree. Letting N_M and/ or me lolhammer is much better strategy.

I think it's a better strategy to punish anyone who plays anti-town, in this way or others, by setting the bar for how towny they need to be to be higher, particularly if someone will do it as both alignments.
If I have a close decision from reads between two people, I'll go for the one who has been more anti-town unless I have meta reasons to think that their anti-town plays are town-indicative for whatever reason.

[Vanderscamp]

As an example of this, since I don't have strong reads, VOTE: Agent of Chaos because they have gone out of their way to not contribute real content.
It's possible this isn't alignment indicative but I definitely haven't read anything they've done as towny.

[Vanderscamp]

This is not the solution.
If I get there I will refuse to claim at E-2, I'm not going to be part of an

obviously worse strategy

just to accommodate for town (not that we even know that that is the case) who are intentionally playing poorly.

Explain why this strategy is worse or you getting my vote for this day.

Because forcing more claims from people is generally not helpful.

If this isn't the case, if more claims are fine or we are at least indifferent to them, then we should (or be at least indifferent to an) all claim today.
But I think that's pretty clearly not true.

Forcing claims at E-2 instead of E-1 forces more people to claim, assuming that we do not eventually put every person who gets to E-2 at E-1.

[Vanderscamp]

It wouldn't mean absolutely nothing, if they have a "clear" on someone their chance of being scum gets cut in half.

That's not really how odds work but I do kind of understand what you mean as it's 1/2 chance the setup is that setup.

Yeah, it's not exactly a half most of the time.

If it's a D1 VT kill without any other claims, and one of the roles dies in the night, a clear from the other role the next day makes chances of the clear being scum 1/3, with the other players being scum 5/9 each. If it was a scum kill D1 with no claims, a clear becomes 1/7 scum vs 2/7 scum for the other players, but most of the time it's not going to be as clear cut.
Even still I think if someone is cleared tomorrow by an investigative role that may or may not be useless, we shouldn't treat it as an actual clear, but I think it should definitely be enough to give them immunity from the kill for that day unless they're acting extraordinarily scummy.

[Vanderscamp]

That's in the case where the other one is dead, although I think it will still likely be true with both alive.

[Vanderscamp]

This is not the solution.
If I get there I will refuse to claim at E-2, I'm not going to be part of an

obviously worse strategy

just to accommodate for town (not that we even know that that is the case) who are intentionally playing poorly.

Explain why this strategy is worse or you getting my vote for this day.

Because forcing more claims from people is generally not helpful.

If this isn't the case, if more claims are fine or we are at least indifferent to them, then we should (or be at least indifferent to an) all claim today.
But I think that's pretty clearly not true.

Forcing claims at E-2 instead of E-1 forces more people to claim, assuming that we do not eventually put every person who gets to E-2 at E-1.

... Oh. That's what you meant.
E-2 doesh't means you should claim immediatly. And it's not like anyone does, even if they are on E-1, otherwise it would be chaotic. There's mostly warning and ask to claim if it needed, and it happens after decision made, so you kinda forced to claim.

Most common practice at end of days is placing someone on E-1 and asking them to claim. Nothing changes if you put people on E-2 and ask to claim... I already told why E-1 is dangerous.


Massclaim doesh't benefit us, less claims is better.

Sure, what I'm saying is that I won't be claiming unless someone gives intent to hammer me.
If I get hammered without warning by some rogue agent the onus is on the rogue agent to justify why we shouldn't kill them for it, not on me (or anyone else) for not wanting to claim unnecessarily early.

[Vanderscamp]

I stand by my primary reason for townreading Enchant, I townread him for consistent contributions that are not just quantitative but qualititative high-scores.

Enchant has helped us even if they are scum, more than almost anyone else except I would say myself.

This is impossible to scumread to be perfectly honest. He hasn't fluff-posted much at all, has continually pressured and questioned. I will not read Enchant as scum unless extreme circumstances change and if I am somehow alive alongside them at a later stage in this game.

I can tunnel a scumread hard and do the same with townreads too and see no issue with it. I hard-townread, whether or not you agree with my reason for doing so.

I don't disagree at all with your reasoning about Enchant for coming to the conclusion that he's pro-town, or even impossible to scum read, I just think it's not hard at all for a helpful scum to post what he's said so far.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't support the bandwagoning of AoC based solely on the trolling, I will only join such a bandwagon if AoC flat-out refuses to change this day's vote dynamic from being AoC vs myself.

AoC would troll as either alignment and has been so active in the thread quanty-wise that I feel it is becoming a townsided thing. Why would fae post again and again and again as scum? AoC would probably back off or ramp up the trolling if scumsided in this scenario.

Do we know that AoC would give this level of contribution as either alignment?...

And it's not just the trolling, I read the comment about you talking about mafia specifically (when you didn't) as weird and forced.
You can keep your read on enchant but I emphatically disagree with thinking AoC is townsided for consistently being here but declining to do anything useful.

[Vanderscamp]

Vanders, you just need to know. If you on E-2 and ASKED to claim, then you probably should claim. Simple because placing you on E-1 would be dangerous.

We not in situation to punish anti-town behavior. As i said, he doing that regardless of alignment, and last thing i want to see is him getting lynched after hammering town and flip town as well and instaloss.

Well. There's possibility he will hammer mafia, but still not worth it.


... Not_Mafia most hot discusion here, and even didn't posted once. Which is hilarous.

If it's obvious not_mafia is happy to kill me and he's not voting me, sure.
If not_mafia randomly hammers me or anyone else for no reason, be very inclined to kill him tomorrow despite what you say about his style.
The response to pro-scum play should not be to accept it and accommodate it.

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Even in the queue thread, AoC was trolling with their first 2 posts on the site, one actually personally trolled myself.

After I in'd, AoC said 'I see I will be in good company' sarcastically or something.

I won't mention more than that, you can see the post history (it was only 2 posts anyway and the other didn't apply to me). This isn't me discussing other games in this thread as it isn't even ongoing and was the queue thread.

AoC is very clearly not concerned whatsoever with how annoyed other users get towards faem.

I accept that last line, so why do you think they would be inclined to troll less as scum?

[Vanderscamp]

Sure, but we're 15 hours into the first day, is it really late enough to notice consistency?

[Vanderscamp]

I strongly opt for lolhammerring.
Claimed cop is twice as likely to be fake than not!

Or claimed seer if it's werewolves.

It's clearly not the case that both of these statements are true given we have a guaranteed cop and a guaranteed seer and only two scum.
One of them can be true if scum are weighted towards a specific claim.

It's definitely not the case that a PR claim is more likely to be fake than real (barring the potentially different odds of running up scum vs PRs)

[Vanderscamp]

Actually you're both definitely wrong, I was thinking you said more likely and not twice as likely.

[Vanderscamp]

A named town in a 7p set is far from useless.

[Vanderscamp]

True. If he makes it to 3v2, we get 5/30 win, not 4/30
If he somehow makes it even to 2v1 we get an astonishing 2/6->3/6.

I can already see my odds rising!

I'm not sure if this is a troll or not

[Vanderscamp]

I think you do not get my point.

FURRIES -> cop ≈ VT
MAFIA -> cop is 66% fake.

FURRIES -> Seer is 66% fake.
MAFIA -> Seer ≈ VT

Since we are auto-TERMINATING Vanilla Townies, we might as well auto-TERMINATE almost Vanilla Townies.

Oh.

In the win percent increase examples you mentioned earlier, you give examples that lead to a 25% and 50% increase in winning chances respectively. I don't think this is nothing.

I don't agree that we should be auto-killing VTs and your conclusion pretty obviously doesn't follow even if we were.
How are we even supposed to know if they are the "almost vanilla townie?"...

[Vanderscamp]

If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.

If this is responding to me, I'm talking about when we see the claim.

[Vanderscamp]

If this is game with dogs, Cop without CC is just confirmed townie. If this game with mafia, Seer without CC is just confirmed Townie.

I agree.
Confirmed Townie, almost useless role.

I have no idea what to say if you genuinely believe that a confirmed town in a game with 5 total town is an almost useless role.

[Vanderscamp]

Well I'm not unvoting, he's also weirdly feigning being brand new by saying it's his first micro game but isn't his first game.

I mean, his join date is like two weeks ago and what he said was that he was noobish and that this is his first micro which is not wrong.

I would still rather vote AOC who has been very active but has contributed nothing but trolls and bad strategy advice.

[Vanderscamp]

Not sure what you're trying to say.

[Vanderscamp]

May by a bluff.
Though, for mafia it would be better to just fake reads!
Not sure about werewolves.

RM, I think Robert is not towny and I wouldn't lose sleep over a flip there, but I think it says a lot that you are ignoring stuff like this from AoC that is, at best, pointless trolling, but your response to a VT claim from Robert is that it is a "clever bluff" and not believable.
I don't think AoC is towny and I really don't understand why you do.

[Vanderscamp]

The one thing I actually like from AoC is asking about whether scum have day chat.
I'd be okay flipping Robert after a VT claim given that but I'm also not interested in doing so before the two other players have said essentially nothing contribute in some way.

[Vanderscamp]

The scum (aka RationalMadman) has taken total control of the narrative in this game. It's easy to go after novice/low-activity players during the day, and night kill the more active townies. The scum isn't going after Not_Mafia because that player won't respond back at all, so there is no reward persecuting them - but they are seemingly worried about Not_Mafia hammering, though.

He posts a lot, some of it is game strategy, calling active players town, and less active players scum - for some reason keeps saying AoC is trolling? Most of his posts are complete garbage filler, but hey. That's how he keeps tight control of the narrative.

VOTE: RationalMadman

Never mind, VOTE: Robert M Hunter
I'm on the bandwagon

[Vanderscamp]

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VOTE: Not_Mafia

Great

[Vanderscamp]

I am very curious why you only mention this read and stuff now. You literally were E-1 and all you said is you're vanilla town, do whatever. You didn't even say I was scum or vote me, you're only doing it right now. If you think as scum I'd oush this hard for you even after you outed, you are wrong but I don't think you're just wrong I think you are scum.

I agree with this, this is why I voted him because it does seem manufactured.
I'm not sure why you unvoted him.

[Vanderscamp]

I think RM's commitment is very towny.

[Vanderscamp]

Attempted to catch up, got halfway through page 2 and got bored

None of Rational Madman’s posts are worth reading, Agent of chaos is scum

This is somehow more disappointing than your promised trolling would have been

[Vanderscamp]

I haven't read any of their posts

Why are you playing this game?

[Vanderscamp]

I think vander is scum in this game potentially (not just potentially but you get the point).

Assuming they/them pronouns here.

Vander seems to be asking questions to players and voting the path of least resistance without having a hard stance of their own from what I see.

There is something off about it because I sense that Vander is capable of a lot more aggression in cross-examining than what's been done so far. On the other hand, Vander is one of the only players actively doing it so I not sure how to justify a vote but I'm outing this vibe/gut read here and now.

I do think they easily are scum WITH Robert. That team isn't unthinkable. Vander could be throwing Robert under the bus here out of self-preservation as they see a bad long-term outcome of teaming with Robert. Actually, Vander could be with anyone at all because of how neutral the core stance is. I ask Vander to make clear the reads they have and reasoning behind each. Nullreads are fine but I'm unclear who Vander townreads, only clear that voting Robert through to elimination is supported.

I use male pronouns.

I think my reads have been extremely clear this game!
I've outlined them all already.

I thought Robert was null leaning scummy until his bigger post where he goes after you, and I think that post was very scummy and probably the scummiest thing anyone has posted this game.

I think you are towny because of how hard you seem to be trying.

I think your town reads on Enchant and AoC are poor, particularly the AoC one.
Despite being consistently present, I think AoC has contributed literally nothing of value the entire game, and the only thing I've liked from that seat was the dumbtell about day chat for scum.
I think it's very easy for scum to post what Enchant has said so far, but given that he's basically the only person other than you or me who is trying to provide actual content he is basically off the table for me until he starts to sound actively scummy.

Everyone else is null.

I don't think it's particularly useful to cross examine or have strong reads this early in the game, unless something is super obvious, because it just leads to tunneling.
For example I think what you did with Robert's initial entrance posts is in general pretty counterproductive (even though I think in this case you are town and were correct with your read) because it makes it much harder to objectively evaluate people. As an example of this, Robert claimed VT and you had this claim as an unbelievable claim and a clever bluff, which are both things that are essentially never true about a VT claim in a situation like this.



I'll accept not being town read by you, or even scum read, that's fine; I think I'm definitely within my scum range this game.
What I won't accept is me being one of the only seats that is trying so far, with one of us posting shit like "I think this makes sense coming from wolves, but not necessarily mafia" or whatever the fuck it was, and you deciding you would rather flip my seat over either AoC or the scummy nulls.

[Vanderscamp]

If you think Robert us town, unvote him btw

No. There's point, where i don't want him alive regardless of alignment.

If he is Town, he probably will become shapegoat, probably will not help later and also never will be nightkilled.
There's still high possibility he is just mafia.

Either way, this is not person, for which i want give future of town.

I do think this is a mildly towny stance, I think scum would be more likely to just call him scum.

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

[Vanderscamp]

Can you explain how you get to the conclusion that if scum!Robert doesn't care, his partner doesn't care either? Who would you consider "doesn't care about this game"?

Until your most recent posts, I considered you and Not_Mafia as extremely high candidates in that spectrum as well as AoC being within it but over time AoC has moved into proactive territory after some contributions following faes unvoting of Robert.

As for the first question, it's very simple, I do not believe that the safer bet/assumption/conclusion to make if Robert is scum, is that his partner is in any shape or form playing well. The kind of partner that would inspire Robert to play how he's playing is one that has somehow tilted Robert into feeling 'screw this game'.

That said, it's a weak conditional read, not a strong one.

A strong conditional read is that if Robert is town, AoC is town for how AoC reacted to Robert claiming vanilla.

Can you talk more why this is the case?
Because I don't understand why it's towny for anyone to have voted Robert up until that point, see a VT claim, and then decide to move elsewhere, particularly if Robert is town.
Why wouldn't scum be incentivized to try to run up other people once they see a VT claim from Robert in the hopes of outing PRs?

[Vanderscamp]

I don't understand what's happening this game if you are town, not_mafia.

You came into this game with energy and a self vote and since your first post your energy has been zero.

Why are you even playing this game if you have no interest in hunting at all?
Why is this not you as scum seeing that your partner Robert is likely going down and losing all motivation?

I think we are in quite a good spot because I am quite confident Robert is mafia and we'll be able to kill him without needing any town to claim.

[Vanderscamp]

Why wouldn't scum be incentivized to try to run up other people once they see a VT claim from Robert in the hopes of outing PRs?

The third question is very pertinent. AoC didn't and hasn't even slightly moved on from unvoting Robert to pushing for another lynch in this day phase. Fae hasn't even threatened it. This is extremely important in understanding what the 'nature of' the unvote was, simply to give Robert breathing room, let the day drag on and let us perhaps get reads on the 2 lurkers.

As scum, AoC would probably (if Robert isn't his partner) sit there giggling and wait for someone to hammer. At the very least, there's no real reason for AoC to suddenly not just unvote but take the game seriously after that point. I read the change in attitude as very towny if Robert is town. If Robert is scum, AoC could have acted in all those ways as the partner.

We might have different opinions on what counts as taking the game seriously, but if this (AOC's next post):

May by a bluff.
Though, for mafia it would be better to just fake reads!
Not sure about werewolves.

was taking the game seriously, then I think that's extremely scummy.

I think the reasoning for AoC to do it if Robert is town is to want to try and get other claims, without feeling the need to actually push on people. If AoC started pushing people and trying to run them up, that would definitely be an increase in seriousness, right? I'm not sure why you think the scum line from AoC in that spot involves an increase in seriousness, but that the increase in seriousness from AoC here is an indication of towniness.

I don't care too much about this though because I'm much more confident on Robert being scum than AoC.

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

I'm not retaliation, I have a job with overtime shifts, I don't have the time and energy to fight off a scum with 98 posts that totally dominates the game and decided to call every word I type scummy, he's been pushing me down from the game's onset and keeps me down by kicking me in the nads at every opportunity. He's not a townie honestly trying to find my alignment, he's known my alignment from the start and he could smell I'm an easy mark.

What I find very suspicious from you is your sudden extreme confidence that he is scum.
Why can't he be town and wrong?

[Vanderscamp]

What I find very suspicious from you is your sudden extreme confidence that he is scum.

Let me ask you, why aren't you suspicious of Madman's "sudden extreme confidence" that I'm scum before I had the chance to say anything?

Because I feel his level of engagement has been very towny.
I don't feel like RM as scum needs to try as hard.
He's come out with several train of thoughts where he posts multiple posts in a row that I think have been towny.

I initially did fight back against his accusation against you because I didn't particularly agree with it.
But his confidence about you seems more natural than vice versa (and less strong at this point)

[Vanderscamp]

His mindset of tunneling me in revenge is not towny but the way he is sticking to it actually is towny.

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

Although I see we're getting a flip

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

I'm not retaliation, I have a job with overtime shifts, I don't have the time and energy to fight off a scum with 98 posts that totally dominates the game and decided to call every word I type scummy, he's been pushing me down from the game's onset and keeps me down by kicking me in the nads at every opportunity. He's not a townie honestly trying to find my alignment, he's known my alignment from the start and he could smell I'm an easy mark.

What I find very suspicious from you is your sudden extreme confidence that he is scum.
Why can't he be town and wrong?

Yeah maybe this is scum too. I don’t like the fact that he is trying to present this as his own thought and not mine

-Xi

I'm pretty sure I scumread his sudden turnaround before you said anything about it, but I completely agree with your reasoning.

[Vanderscamp]

Either way, it should ended some time. I take responsibility.

Just remember, tomorrow is final day. Don't just vote or mafia would perform funnyhammer.

?? How do you know this?

If somehow Robert ends up flipping town this line by Enchant is incredibly scummy. How do you know tomorrow is going to be lylo. If Robert flips scum Enchant honestly could be town for this.

-Xi

I agree that it's less likely enchant is partners with Robert after this.

If Robert flips scum which I pretty strongly believe will happen, I'm pretty happy killing not_mafia and AOC as my two kills

[Vanderscamp]

Sigh

Stop TERMINATING blatant towns.

This is fairly towny assuming scumRobert though

[Vanderscamp]

What I'm seeing is a bunch of people who believe Robert has a high chance of being scum but are voting him anyway.
R_M, Enchant, and Xi.
I think this is pretty towny because I think voters on Robert as scum with him would be more likely to push harder that he is scum, since imo he is pretty obviously very scummy and the reasons to townread him are pretty poor, or, if they are going to defend him, to not vote him.
AoC is calling him obv town after the flip which is a pretty absurd stance as scum partners with him since he is very far from obvious town and he's already dead. Why look even more shit than AoC does already by not having voted him?


Then, we have the guy who has done nothing all game and only pretended to hammer Robert when he already had the votes.

I believe the team is not_mafia and Robert.

[Vanderscamp]

Additionally, in the imo unlikely event that Robert does flip town, I would look pretty hard at AoC.
I think R_M's conditional read there is extremely poor.

I think in the world where Robert is town, AoC is likely scum and pushed on Robert, saw the VT claim, and decided that voting there was no longer worthwhile because they wanted to get other claims. It's not like when scum see a VT claim, especially a VT claim that was not in any way towny, they are super incentivized to stay there and try to end the day with a VT kill and no other claims.
I believe that R_M is looking at AOC's play from the perspective of how he would play scum in that spot and not from a standpoint of what makes sense to do. It's not like AoC was hard pushing kills in the first place, the fact that they did not suddenly pivot to this is not towny.

[Vanderscamp]

What I'm seeing is a bunch of people who believe Robert has a high chance of

being scum

but are voting him anyway.
R_M, Enchant, and Xi.

This could be a severe slip. He meant 'being town' so if Robert is town, Vander's brain may have slipped by meaning 'opposite of what Robert is'.

It is a slip, I did mean "being town," but I have no idea why I would be thinking "opposite of what Robert is" if I am scum who knows Robert is town, and wants to talk about the perspective of Robert being town.

[Vanderscamp]

In fact that could be a slip either way around.

Probably indicative that the slip is not coming from a scum perspective, right?

[Vanderscamp]

You were meaning 'despite thinking this, they did that, so your brain was most likely processing 'despite this' and got confused. It could be an innocent error you made or be a slip, there is no reason for me to not point it out. This day ohase is ending any second and I want as much out there in case I'm nightkilled.

Sure, but I feel like there's no way it can even be scum-indicative.

[Vanderscamp]

If anyone thinks I bussed say it right now. Cop doesn't out btw.

I don't think you bussed.

[Vanderscamp]

I’m cop. I’m not getting into a 1v1 tomorrow.

This is a good claim if you are cop, if there's a cop that's not N_M I will not believe you tomorrow.

[Vanderscamp]

You told me to.
An I though he was putting him on E-2!

When you realised he was E-1, you kept voting him forcing out the claim at which point you instantly unvoted him.

I found his claim towny.

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

It's up to N_M but intent to put AoC at E-1.

I am not super confident on this because I do think it is a pretty weird line to call Robert obviously town when he's just about to flip scum, but I think this is a kill that definitely needs to happen and should happen today instead of tomorrow.

I don't think there's any chance I can choose AoC as the towniest player out of AoC/Xi/Robert, not just from being the only player to not have seriously voted Robert yesterday (I am not counting a vote that immediately disappeared after a not-very-towny VT claim that came directly afterwards as a serious vote), but also from the way they have been playing.

It could be that AoC just has a playing style that happens to really come across as scummy to me, but for pretty much the entire game AoC has felt present but not evaluative (if that's a word)

Like, even today, they are just giving us what feels like empty content. There's no discernible reasoning behind AoC thinking that Robert's claim was towny or that he felt like afk town, they're just saying it.
One of the only things I like is the statement about Xi being scum because of the wagon analysis, which I feel is likely a correct guess if AoC is town, but this is really not enough for me.

I doubt that I will have to convince the village super hard to kill AoC here but this is where I'm at.
If that flip doesn't win the game, I would kill Xi over R_M because I think what a Xi has done is easier to replicate as scum.

[Vanderscamp]

I’m cop. I’m not getting into a 1v1 tomorrow.

This is a good claim if you are cop, if there's a cop that's not N_M I will not believe you tomorrow.

that is gamethrow territory if you genuinely vote him tomorrow if someone CC's him who refused to CC him here, today. Don't even suggest that.

I have zero intention of doing that, my goal with this post is to prevent a situation where the cop is not N_M and doesn't claim today and we do lose tomorrow.

[Vanderscamp]

Oh, I see that it was ambiguous.
I meant: if there is a claim tomorrow I will not believe the new claimant tomorrow.

[Vanderscamp]

Great Grey

Wolf

Sif: +Excellent

Spider hunting skills

. +Very

Eager

. +Is the

goodest boi

. -Sometimes might just play with the Spiders or puts them in his mouth and try to chew them but drop them on the floor by

Spiders must be the equivalent of Seers. I think he literally softed being a werewolf in his second post of the game.

What % chance do you believe that this was the case?

[Vanderscamp]

Great Grey

Wolf

Sif: +Excellent

Spider hunting skills

. +Very

Eager

. +Is the

goodest boi

. -Sometimes might just play with the Spiders or puts them in his mouth and try to chew them but drop them on the floor by

Spiders must be the equivalent of Seers. I think he literally softed being a werewolf in his second post of the game.

What % chance do you believe that this was the case?

Is that some kind of joke?

It was either him as vanilla townie intentionally softing PR to get nightkilled in place of PR or it was exactly what I said as some strange ploy.

I do think as scum it has even more flexibility as it lets him CC PR later on too.

I might be missing some site meta but it feels like a very big stretch to me

[Vanderscamp]

I might be missing some site meta but it feels like a very big stretch to me

Site Meta for a brand new user? I am reading his literal post trying to decipher the intent and meaning. I already realised he wast softing PR on day one and Enchant even voiced it. I kept silent about it because I didn't want to tip the Scumteam.

I don't think there's an obvious connection between spiders and seers.

A huge amount of what AoC posted has been cryptic and non-game related.

[Vanderscamp]

Faes not his* I am sorry I am very new to non-they/them gender-neutral pronouns, I will try my best not to make this error again.

Don't worry, I really don't care which pronoun you give to me. I chose fae because it sounded like it could cause chaos (people mispronouncing me and then correcting themselves).

Surely this is a joke?...

[Vanderscamp]

So... Vander.
You said that if Robert flips town, I am likely to be scum.
How did his flip affect you?

I talked about this already both before and after the reveal, I thought your interactions with Robert make you more likely town.
However, that was before the one player who I thought was a clear candidate to be scum with Robert claimed cop, so while I think it was towny from you, everyone other than you has a real non-WIFOM reason for me to read them as town given scumRobert.

It was also more that I think you have been generally scummy so if Robert was town, you had a high chance of being scum anyway and the interactions fit pretty well.

[Vanderscamp]

To me, the onky scummy thing is Vander isn't voting AoC, I'm beginning to scumread the hesitation and overly talking about the next day like Vander is sure there'll be one. It was a dumbtell for Vander to inoly N_M would be CCd

I fully intend to vote AoC but not before Xi checks in, particularly with an apparent hammering fanatic still in the game.

I'm not sure there will be a next day and I'm not sure what I said to give you the impression I do.
Briefly talking about how I read you vs Xi?


And I don't expect N_M to be CCed, I'm trying to explain the importance of a real cop if it is not N_M claiming now and not tomorrow. Surely you understand that?

[Vanderscamp]

So honestly based on Day 2 my townread on Vander is reducing

I don't feel like there's been anything wrong with my D2, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are just misinterpreting what I've been saying.

[Vanderscamp]

But I pretty strongly disagree that wanting more time to discuss today than what we have right now (particularly before Xi's check in) is wasting time.

[Vanderscamp]

You are absolutely fluffposting and wadting time but you can believe it's not a waste if you wish. AoC will keep posting nonsense.

Nothing I'm saying is fluff, the stuff about seers is very unlikely but not impossible to be relevant.
I'm less eager for AOC's thoughts than Xi's thoughts and I would not end the day without getting them as either alignment.

[Vanderscamp]

Although I would likely care less as scum tbh

[Vanderscamp]

I townread myself (shocking!). I townread you. I townread whoever is the only cop claim.
This leaves Vanderscamp and Xijingping as potential scum!
Vander was active, but wasn't
a) bussing Robert
b) defending Robert && trying to create another wagon

Xijingping wasn't active, so he couldn't try to derail Robert. When he came back, Robert's TERMINATION was almost decided!

When you say I wasn't bussing Robert, what do you mean?

[Vanderscamp]

Yeah, I'm with you.
Not too much else to say other than AoC clearly being a mandatory kill here

[Vanderscamp]

Missed the last many posts, was responding to r_m's posts after me

[Vanderscamp]

I also completely believe R_M is town

I fully believe what he is saying about what he would do re: robert

[Vanderscamp]

Done

VOTE: Agent of Chaos

[Vanderscamp]

Eliminating AoC --> Vanderscamp wins, I'm pretty sure

I'm guessing this was the reason for that kill?

VOTE: Xi

[Vanderscamp]

I guess I'll talk about the Robert kill, specifically the interactions Xi and I had around it, since I think that is probably going to be the most helpful in terms of solving the game.


Towards the start of the thread, r_m pushes pretty hard on Robert.
I generally don't think the case against r_m is particularly good so I'm more interested in flipping AoC who was being aggressively useless.

AoC puts Robert at E-1, Robert claims VT, AoC instantly unvotes.

I make this post and a couple others which was generally my stance.

May by a bluff.
Though, for mafia it would be better to just fake reads!
Not sure about werewolves.

RM, I think Robert is not towny and I wouldn't lose sleep over a flip there, but I think it says a lot that you are ignoring stuff like this from AoC that is, at best, pointless trolling, but your response to a VT claim from Robert is that it is a "clever bluff" and not believable.
I don't think AoC is towny and I really don't understand why you do.

Xi is almost completely absent.

[Vanderscamp]

Robert makes this post and I instantly vote him.

The scum (aka RationalMadman) has taken total control of the narrative in this game. It's easy to go after novice/low-activity players during the day, and night kill the more active townies. The scum isn't going after Not_Mafia because that player won't respond back at all, so there is no reward persecuting them - but they are seemingly worried about Not_Mafia hammering, though.

He posts a lot, some of it is game strategy, calling active players town, and less active players scum - for some reason keeps saying AoC is trolling? Most of his posts are complete garbage filler, but hey. That's how he keeps tight control of the narrative.

VOTE: RationalMadman

Never mind, VOTE: Robert M Hunter
I'm on the bandwagon

[Vanderscamp]

I am very curious why you only mention this read and stuff now. You literally were E-1 and all you said is you're vanilla town, do whatever. You didn't even say I was scum or vote me, you're only doing it right now. If you think as scum I'd oush this hard for you even after you outed, you are wrong but I don't think you're just wrong I think you are scum.

I agree with this, this is why I voted him because it does seem manufactured.
I'm not sure why you unvoted him.

I say this about Robert, questioning R_M's unvote of him.

[Vanderscamp]

Here's what Xi has to say (in reverse order, sorry)

RM, why do you keep talking about Robert's flip as if it's for sure going to happen, call Vander scum, and not have a vote down?

-Xi

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

Can you explain how you get to the conclusion that if scum!Robert doesn't care, his partner doesn't care either? Who would you consider "doesn't care about this game"?

-Xi

Okay I can read a 5 post ISO at least.

Robert, the problem I have with you is that your self-proclaimed noobishness starkly contrasts with your sudden jarring confidence on RM being scum. Can you explain why you're so confident in this read? It looks like a blanket narrative accusation from you without much substance.

-Xi

Funnily enough R_M gives an accurate assessment on who Robert is partnered with and Xi discredits it.

[Vanderscamp]

I think vander is scum in this game potentially (not just potentially but you get the point).

Assuming they/them pronouns here.

Vander seems to be asking questions to players and voting the path of least resistance without having a hard stance of their own from what I see.

There is something off about it because I sense that Vander is capable of a lot more aggression in cross-examining than what's been done so far. On the other hand, Vander is one of the only players actively doing it so I not sure how to justify a vote but I'm outing this vibe/gut read here and now.

I do think they easily are scum WITH Robert. That team isn't unthinkable. Vander could be throwing Robert under the bus here out of self-preservation as they see a bad long-term outcome of teaming with Robert. Actually, Vander could be with anyone at all because of how neutral the core stance is. I ask Vander to make clear the reads they have and reasoning behind each. Nullreads are fine but I'm unclear who Vander townreads, only clear that voting Robert through to elimination is supported.

I use male pronouns.

I think my reads have been extremely clear this game!
I've outlined them all already.

I thought Robert was null leaning scummy until his bigger post where he goes after you, and I think that post was very scummy and probably the scummiest thing anyone has posted this game.

I think you are towny because of how hard you seem to be trying.

I think your town reads on Enchant and AoC are poor, particularly the AoC one.
Despite being consistently present, I think AoC has contributed literally nothing of value the entire game, and the only thing I've liked from that seat was the dumbtell about day chat for scum.
I think it's very easy for scum to post what Enchant has said so far, but given that he's basically the only person other than you or me who is trying to provide actual content he is basically off the table for me until he starts to sound actively scummy.

Everyone else is null.

I don't think it's particularly useful to cross examine or have strong reads this early in the game, unless something is super obvious, because it just leads to tunneling.
For example I think what you did with Robert's initial entrance posts is in general pretty counterproductive (even though I think in this case you are town and were correct with your read) because it makes it much harder to objectively evaluate people. As an example of this, Robert claimed VT and you had this claim as an unbelievable claim and a clever bluff, which are both things that are essentially never true about a VT claim in a situation like this.



I'll accept not being town read by you, or even scum read, that's fine; I think I'm definitely within my scum range this game.
What I won't accept is me being one of the only seats that is trying so far, with one of us posting shit like "I think this makes sense coming from wolves, but not necessarily mafia" or whatever the fuck it was, and you deciding you would rather flip my seat over either AoC or the scummy nulls.

I have this to say about the game in general, I call Robert's post I voted him for the scummiest thing anyone has said all game.

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

Ignore the first quote, it was a misquote.
I push harder and harder against Robert

[Vanderscamp]

I don't understand what's happening this game if you are town, not_mafia.

You came into this game with energy and a self vote and since your first post your energy has been zero.

Why are you even playing this game if you have no interest in hunting at all?
Why is this not you as scum seeing that your partner Robert is likely going down and losing all motivation?

I think we are in quite a good spot because I am quite confident Robert is mafia and we'll be able to kill him without needing any town to claim.

More

[Vanderscamp]

Why wouldn't scum be incentivized to try to run up other people once they see a VT claim from Robert in the hopes of outing PRs?

The third question is very pertinent. AoC didn't and hasn't even slightly moved on from unvoting Robert to pushing for another lynch in this day phase. Fae hasn't even threatened it. This is extremely important in understanding what the 'nature of' the unvote was, simply to give Robert breathing room, let the day drag on and let us perhaps get reads on the 2 lurkers.

As scum, AoC would probably (if Robert isn't his partner) sit there giggling and wait for someone to hammer. At the very least, there's no real reason for AoC to suddenly not just unvote but take the game seriously after that point. I read the change in attitude as very towny if Robert is town. If Robert is scum, AoC could have acted in all those ways as the partner.

We might have different opinions on what counts as taking the game seriously, but if this (AOC's next post):

May by a bluff.
Though, for mafia it would be better to just fake reads!
Not sure about werewolves.

was taking the game seriously, then I think that's extremely scummy.

I think the reasoning for AoC to do it if Robert is town is to want to try and get other claims, without feeling the need to actually push on people. If AoC started pushing people and trying to run them up, that would definitely be an increase in seriousness, right? I'm not sure why you think the scum line from AoC in that spot involves an increase in seriousness, but that the increase in seriousness from AoC here is an indication of towniness.

I don't care too much about this though because I'm much more confident on Robert being scum than AoC.

I'm saying I'm much more confident on Robert being scum than AoC now.
If I'm scum here I'm pretty much completely removing my ability to not vote anyone outside of Robert.

[Vanderscamp]

*to vote

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

I'm not retaliation, I have a job with overtime shifts, I don't have the time and energy to fight off a scum with 98 posts that totally dominates the game and decided to call every word I type scummy, he's been pushing me down from the game's onset and keeps me down by kicking me in the nads at every opportunity. He's not a townie honestly trying to find my alignment, he's known my alignment from the start and he could smell I'm an easy mark.

What I find very suspicious from you is your sudden extreme confidence that he is scum.
Why can't he be town and wrong?

More

[Vanderscamp]

Official Vote Count

Robert M Hunter

(2): Enchant, Vanderscamp

RationalMadman

(1): Robert M Hunter

Not_Mafia

(1): Not_Mafia

Not Voting

(3): Agent of Chaos, xijinping, RationalMadman

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to throw someone into a pit.

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-04-29 22:06:00)

And btw, this was the tally for a fairly long time at this point.

Robert was on two votes, including mine.
I don't think Robert was clearly going to flip even at this stage without me continually saying that I wanted to vote exclusively Robert with no other claims.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Robert M Hunter

Okay, like the lack of re-evaluation is exactly the kind of naked aggression I would expect from scum here. It’s probably just a low effort AtE and it’s weird how you’re doing all these twists and turns to suddenly defend him for no good reason

-Xi

Xi finally comes in with a vote on Robert shortly after this

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

This is extremely scummy imo

I very much do not believe this is genuine from Robert, I think he is just retaliating.

I'm not retaliation, I have a job with overtime shifts, I don't have the time and energy to fight off a scum with 98 posts that totally dominates the game and decided to call every word I type scummy, he's been pushing me down from the game's onset and keeps me down by kicking me in the nads at every opportunity. He's not a townie honestly trying to find my alignment, he's known my alignment from the start and he could smell I'm an easy mark.

What I find very suspicious from you is your sudden extreme confidence that he is scum.
Why can't he be town and wrong?

Yeah maybe this is scum too. I don’t like the fact that he is trying to present this as his own thought and not mine

-Xi

Xi trying to pretend that I have been sheeping his reads about Robert.

Everything I've posted has been the correct order (apart from Xi's three consecutive posts)

[Vanderscamp]

Why not? I say hammer away

-Xi

Like if he is town he’s just going to keep doing this, what’s the point

-Xi

Xi says more against Robert.

[Vanderscamp]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

Can you explain how you get to the conclusion that if scum!Robert doesn't care, his partner doesn't care either? Who would you consider "doesn't care about this game"?

-Xi

He's scum... it's all BS.

What is this response even.

-Xi

... Or Robert is town. Which i find sadly likely

Where do you stand on Robert now? Do you agree with my points against him?

-Xi

[Vanderscamp]

im so far behind LOL. honestly dont have a strong read on rationalmadman or robert, feel like i have played enough before to see a bunch of people who just give up the moment they see they are bad and people who are just proactive throughout the whole game but just turns out to be a very well balanced player. it also seems like N_M is just the biggest troll in this game or something, I also find that since we probably should vote someout today, N_M might not be a bad choice as in the worst case that NM claim PR then we dont lynch or if NM just dont say anything anyways NM just not oging to contribute much

Uh oh

[Vanderscamp]

And then Robert gets hammered.

[Vanderscamp]

It's possible you are just going to assume that everything I am saying about the kill is wifom, so feel free to ignore it, but there is a literally 0% chance that I decline to kill the confirmed town over the unconfirmed town in a situation where the confirmed town scumreads me more than the unconfirmed town.
I've played between 500-600 games of mafia online and I have literally never in my life done this.

I think it is a stupid kill from Xi as well, but in his shoes it at least makes a modicum of sense because there is a clear reason why he might want to do it which makes more sense than me relying on the "why would I do this" argument of a kill that, in my experience, is pretty useless because people tend to rely on their own personal reads much more than the NK wifom.

[Vanderscamp]

Regarding the Robert kill, neither of us were pushing on him before his VT claim.

Very shortly after Robert claims VT, I start blasting him, calling him the most suspicious person in the thread, and making it very clear that I only wanted to vote Robert that day (even over AoC, who up until that point I had been pushing pretty hard on)


There are basically two useful strategies when it comes to a mafia who is getting a lot of pressure.
Either the mafia decides to sac themselves to out the relevant PR, or the mafia claims VT and it essentially becomes the number one goal of the mafia team to NOT have that person just immediately die.
R_M explained why pretty well here:

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer.

Elaborate?

Only someone who genuinely believed that claiming Vanilla was a great bluff which would get the bandwagon away from Robert would recommend doing this. Vander is very experienced, he'd almost 100% recommend Robert to CC Seer because what you (AoC) don't understand and I now understand you weren't pretending to not understand earlier, is that if Scum doesn't CC Seer, Town is likely to still eliminate the Vanilla claim that they already did scumread anyway, in order to protect PR-outing risk.

Furthermore, what you

definitely don't gras

is that the strategy of Mafia, more so than Town, in a setup like this, needs to be defensive and built around worst-case scenarios. Town had 9/25 shot at pure physical autowin on Day 2 (3/5 chance Vanilla dies at night multiplied by 3/5 chance that Seer investigated non-Cop living Vanilla or the last Werewolf) which would instead be 0/25 had Robert CC'd Seer.

Furthermore, that 9/25 is not the full probability of how bad the situation was for Scum. If on Day 2, the 11/25 happens, the Scum is still severely screwed because there's almost definitely one Townie (in this case myself) that is too blatantly Town to lose to scum in the 2-way let alone 3-way which we would typically have here. Unfortunately the scenario that absolutely guaranteed Werewolf evened-game probability to win happened; the Seer died (there is one other way this works out for scum, if Cop died and the Seer investigated the Cop, that helps Scum practically just as much since Seer will have to out this day phase or risk being successfully CC'd by WW on Day Phase 3 regardless.

Do I think Vander would encourage Robert to land Vander into 9/25 probability autoloss on DP2 if Robert gets eliminated vs 0/25 chance if Robert claims Seer? No. Do I think you would? Yes. Do I think the Hydra would? No.

Do I think that Robert, on his own, took the initative to do that without consulting his partner? Possibly, which is the only thing I hesitate(d) about scumreading you based on after Robert's flip. However, everything Vander and the Hydra did towards the end of the DP1 implied they would love to get rid of Robert rather than risk anyone else outing, you implied the opposite.

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Looks like bussing to me.

Not the kind of bussing where you create a crowd to TERMINATE your partner, but where you join an already created crowd which is likely going to TERMIANTE your partner anyways.

See my answer to above.

As soon as Robert claimed VT and the pressure started dying down on him, I commit very heavily to the idea of flipping Robert.
Both Xi and I are casting suspicion on other people (unfortunately incorrectly in my case) but I, unlike Xi, at no point even entertain the idea of not flipping Robert.

We both started pushing to kill Robert after his VT claim but I don't think it's even remotely close which of us was more instrumental to killing Robert.
R_M deserves the initial credit but before Xi casts a vote on Robert, you have all of the posts I quoted where I talk about Robert being suspicious.

There is a very big difference between my hypothetical decision to start hard bussing Robert at that stage of the game in a situation where momentum really was dying down on Robert and there was a seemingly real chance he would survive, and Xi's decision to do it when there is one additional town (me) who was pushing on him as hard as I was.
I believe it's much more clear that Robert was going down after I started pushing on him than before since essentially the only difference between Xi's and my scum perspectives is the amount I started pushing on him.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll take questions, n_m.

Please actually think about this and read through, if not the thread, at least the posts I have quoted which give an accurate timeline of when Xi and I both started actually pushing on Robert.

Xi puts some very benign "pressure" on Robert in the form of saying he has a problem with him, and I say repeatedly that Robert is my top kill.
At the end of the day when Robert is much more clearly dead, Xi starts to go harder.

[Vanderscamp]

You might be wondering, of my many games I've played, what my meta is of bussing or defending partners.

And this is not wifom, this is a fact, that over my large number of games (mostly on another site), I have a reputation of being extremely NON-bussy, bussing much less than other players.

If you don't want to take my word for it, I will send you many many links of people posting things that will confirm this.


I do bus occasionally, I actually bussed a couple of partners in a recent game, but when I do this I do it because I think the cred is worth it.

In this game, the cred is very clearly obviously not worth it because no matter how good I end up looking, there is an extremely high chance of just being in a mathematical loss.
Scum got lucky and achieved the best possible position they could have this game by killing the cop, pretty much any other scenario (even if enchant had been seer) involves scum having to lynch R_M (someone who I have been consistently hard townreading btw)
And I think it's pretty clear that this is not the kind of situation I would want to deviate from my meta to hard bus Robert for that outcome.

[Vanderscamp]

Urgh why

Yeah that's a good question

[Vanderscamp]

We win, WP

GG

[Vanderscamp]

I get the paranoia but I feel my phrasing was pretty clear haha

Town wins assuming Xi is not cop and a lunatic

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Seer I mean

[Vanderscamp]

Yeah actually I was going to ask the other two about that if you had died

When I first saw the AoC outing stuff after the hammer I did think he was scum but I was fully expecting AoC to lie like that as town there

[Vanderscamp]

I'd have probably mishammered here bad I been left alive.

Why?

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I've never actually seen scum make a wifom kill where they leave the person suspecting them alive, it's one of those things that always has to be considered and looks good on paper, but in practice it almost never happens, 99% of the time if you're a townie alive in 3p, it's because you're wrong. Occam's razor and all that.

I agree, I've seen it many times in reverse and never that way.
And it usually works too because people are inclined to treat it as wifom because most people don't reevaluate well.

[Vanderscamp]

For what it's worth, I think Enchant attempted to inentionally cheat.

When he said AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

I interpreted it as him revealing a read on the only player starting with A and told Sirius that I had such an interpretation. (He said 'DOGS' after and had noted intention to investigate AgentofChaos).

That said, I genuinely would have reached every conclusion made regardless but I would like Enchant reprimanded, I know exactly what he tried to do there and I understood it.

Fwiw I think this kind of stuff is a good example of why when you're dead, it's best to not make any posts at all, no matter how benign

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I'd have probably mishammered here bad I been left alive.

Why?

Day 1 left it pretty even but your Day 2 was far lazier and almost like you knew it was going to be a misfire on AoC the way you were acting.

That's weird because I definitely did think it was AoC, most of the time I do more to prepare for the next day (if there is one) than what I did this game, I think the only thing I even said that might have given you the impression I thought there would be a next day was briefly talking about suspecting Xi over you.
I also think there's no reason to not be "lazy" when there is a kill that, even if wrong, absolutely needs to happen at some point in the game and preferably that day.

But I would like to think you would have reevaluated when I pointed out how much less Xi did than me to get Robert killed.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm not sure what you think the middle ground to that is, between trying too hard to evaluate Xi vs Robert, and not trying hard enough and seem lazy.
Because it's clear that none of us needed to work hard to convince each other of the AoC kill.