Micro 1038: Brass and Shrapnel - Game Over

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Bam bam

BAM!

Dayvig:

CheekyTeeky

And that's how it's done, baby!

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I had a lot of time off so I went through quite a few scenarios following a massclaim. An assumption is made that all Town tells the truth.

• If you make a matrix with all possible setup specs on one axis and all possible scum claims on the other axis, you get 72 scenarios. Not all scenarios are equally likely (duh).
• However, you can only get 25 unique sets of logical claims. If we went down a massclaim path, these would require further analysis to design an optimal decision strategy.
• 20 of the 25 sets (80%) give us immediate information that make traditional scumhunting easier.
• In a
  perfect
  town world where scum must claim first AND claim suboptimally, town's average winrate is AT LEAST 93.5% based on pure mechanical play. Note that whether scum has Doc or RB does not matter here.
• I have only tested 24 scenarios (33% of all scenarios), but so far I have found 8 guaranteed wins (33% of tested scenarios). In the worst case of these scenarios (the last one I tested), town wins only 48.8% of the time (based on mechanics alone).

I stopped testing to get some feedback whether I should keep going with this or not. There are chances for guaranteed wins, but there are also chances for poor winrate. Of course, this only assumes purely mechanical play. If I finished testing all possible scenarios, a more robust analysis of overall winrate can be done. But I don't want to do all that work if A) people figure the odds are already great and we should massclaim now, or B) the chance of bad odds is already terrible and it would never be worth the risk.

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Shameless prodge. I will read with a fresh mind tomorrow.

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An assumption is made that all Town tells the truth.

(and I dunno where and how much psychology features in your maths but there are certainly possible motivations for town to lie here)

I would like you to give me some examples where town could be motivated to lie. I understand that gambits exist, but I would like you to walk me thru a hypothetical where it could be beneficial. And I also understand that by posting an example, scum will be aware of it. But in a game with potential town-lies, that's an added layer of WIFOM so I don't see the harm in sharing.

---

Just to be clear @LGW, the following

So to be clear, my

"slip"

weighs more than Owen's "tonally scummy" question, correct?

refers to the post below?

I don't necessarily think mass claim is a great idea (appreciate the work, zef). We should just play the game out.

And yes, it says there could be a

maf rolecop

too, but I don't know the utility of one so why worry about it?

I'm trying to understand the rationale for faking a "slip" where you don't know the setup.

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VOTE: Imaginality

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Whoever said they feel like they can't interact meaningfully with the game. I agree with them.

I was hoping for more interaction on my strategy post. Not gonna lie, I was kinda excited for people to say "go for it." But I guess that shows I'm a bad player since it was universally agreed to be bad.

I'm having a hard time gleaning reads from this game. I don't understand the LGW thing at all. And I voted Imaginality to stir something up, but nothing really changed. So I just feel like a spectator this game.

I will say that I have a town-lean read on Flea. Being the first to come out with a snap post of hot takes seems townish to me. Even though I have no idea if I agree with their assessment or not.

I hate Onion's shtick and if I were really out of ideas at the end of the day I would lim there just to not have to deal with a self-imposed restriction.

I like Pav's activity, it feels pretty genuine so slight town-read for that. But everyone seems to respect them for being a good player so I am wary of my own surface-level read.

If someone wants to make a succinct case and ask me direct questions I'm willing to engage but I feel trapped on the periphery right now.

/pity party over.

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Whoever said they feel like they can't interact meaningfully with the game. I agree with them.

I was hoping for more interaction on my strategy post. Not gonna lie, I was kinda excited for people to say "go for it." But I guess that shows I'm a bad player since it was universally agreed to be bad.

I'm having a hard time gleaning reads from this game. I don't understand the LGW thing at all. And I voted Imaginality to stir something up, but nothing really changed. So I just feel like a spectator this game.

I will say that I have a town-lean read on Flea. Being the first to come out with a snap post of hot takes seems townish to me. Even though I have no idea if I agree with their assessment or not.

I hate Onion's shtick and if I were really out of ideas at the end of the day I would lim there just to not have to deal with a self-imposed restriction.

I like Pav's activity, it feels pretty genuine so slight town-read for that. But everyone seems to respect them for being a good player so I am wary of my own surface-level read.

If someone wants to make a succinct case and ask me direct questions I'm willing to engage but I feel trapped on the periphery right now.

/pity party over.

Was your strat post universally agreed to be bad? I don't think it was, I think it just focuses on maths too much in a game that is not really about math. (Incidentally I don't love focus on mech talk either.) But since you seem to be trying to engage, what's up with the imaginality vote? Was it just to spark something or do you actually find them scummy?

Do you think policy-limming onion is something we should consider today?

Imaginality's contributions seemed easy to make as scum, IDK.

Policy limming someone is better than nothing. Especially since forcing a claim would give me a LOT of information to resolve in the "scenario matrix" I set up. If scum don't claim optimally or claim something impossible (which is hard to know, but not impossible), the game could easily move from "totally unknown" to "totally solved."

So I think limming the dead-est weight is not a bad option.

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Does it really need to be said that vigs SHOULD NOT attempt to shoot except in a shoot-or-lose scenario? (Which is never the case after D1)

Of course, I expect that people didn't join to play this game optimally, but rather have a bloodbath in the streets. Which is fine, but the corollary from "

Thou shall not shoot

" is "

Thou shall not hypo-shoot

"

Cheeky just softed SS (which actually doesn't matter until we collectively decide on a final elim) BUT there is barely any fundamental difference between {elim on Imaginality with Cheeky hammer} and {elim on Cheeky with Imaginality hammer} UNLESS Cheeky is gambiting OR we run out of time and someone else is forced to hammer to ensure an elim today.

Eden, LGW, The Onion need to weigh in FAST and say who is scummier, Imaginality or Cheeky so we can get the show on the road.

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I'm gonna re-read the whole game since it's not long, and we can definitely use the Day for discussion, but everybody should know

We are VOTE: No Lynch today.

It's 4v2 which is MYLO.

Scum have to avoid hitting a bomb to progress the game. Vigs should all NK, obviously.

If scum NK, then we continue NL and Town wins by deadlock.

If scum miss a bomb then we're in LYLO, which is the only other eventuality besides an instant Town loss.

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A bomb already died. I'd rather die on my own sword than leave the game up to chance and deadlock.
VOTE: zefiend

A deadlock is a town win. If mafia never kill, then "all threats to the town" have been eliminated.

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I'm gonna re-read the whole game since it's not long, and we can definitely use the Day for discussion, but everybody should know

We are VOTE: No Lynch today.

It's 4v2 which is MYLO.

Scum have to avoid hitting a bomb to progress the game. Vigs should all NK, obviously.

If scum NK, then we continue NL and Town wins by deadlock.

If scum miss a bomb then we're in LYLO, which is the only other eventuality besides an instant Town loss.

This post is all over the place.

1 - you seem to assume we have more bombs, but we may not have any more bombs
2 - scum NK, assuming no bomb shot, puts us in elo yes but
2.1 - you want vigs to fire, the possible outcomes of which you don't discuss. They could hit scum (good!) Or they could hit town (bad!) Or they could hit a bomb (super bad!)

No Lim is on the table in 4v2, yes, but it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion.

(Also, dude, the L-word is not the preferred nomenclature anymore. Lim or elimination, please.)

Ok forgive me, I haven't played on this site in like 3 or 4 years.

In my post "NK" = No-Kill. Perhaps this is why Cheeky is confused and voting me, thinking I just want to leave the entire game up to shooting each other at night. Not the case.

I already stated in an earlier post that Vigs should not ever shoot except in a shoot or lose situation, so with some digging you could infer that telling Vigs to "NK" meant No-Kill, not "night-kill." I understand NK can mean "night-kill" when talking about scum.

Anyway, besides all that, yes -- No Lim is optimal. It is not a foregone conclusion, but only in exceptional cases where a mass claim happens and the game can be solved, or something similarly dramatic.

Mechanically, No Lim is the best action here and I would rather "die on my own sword" than play counter-productively.

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NK generally stands for night kill. No-kill, being rarer, needs to be spelled out.

But that reveals another weirdity in your analysis if no-kill is what you meant.

Why would scum not kill? As we discussed d1, they can (and probably did) doc whoever took the night kill to nullify the risk of hitting a bomb. We should assume they will continue to do this. There are only rare situations where not killing is a smart play for scum and I am not sure it could ever be the case in this setup.

Meanwhile your shift from "not knowing how to engage with this game" yesterday to trying to drive the proceedings today is ... just weird

Scum aren't guaranteed to have Doc, they could have RB.

Consider the following scenario (which is impossible in this game now, but for theory's sake):

Day 1 a Vig is limmed; Night 2, two Vigs are shot. 4 Bombs survive. Day 2 is MELO. Town can NL forever. If scum don't have Doc, they have mechanistically lost but don't know it yet. So they no-kill forever.

I don't know the current scenario in the game right now EXCEPT for the fact that it's MELO, so unless the state of information changes, NL is optimal play.

YesterDay was stale and had no direction, today is pretty straightforward what we have to do, which makes engaging easier for me. If I get flamed/dodged for playing this way in a ""fun"" setup, so be it.

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Screw it I'll just stop talking for a while.

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I will reread tomorrow, I'm short of time right now.

SOMEONE please tell me what "LHF" means, I'm out of the loop on site lingo.

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Damn. I suck with hammers. I am town though, so not as YOLO as you thought.

Can y'all claim? I'm a Vig who shot Onion N1 and nobody N2, so either I'm blank or Onion got saved.

I haven't properly scumhunted this game once but I'll give it a go later tonight (hopefully Onion's posted by then)

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Wait why would I shoot you over LGW?

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Umm why are neither of y'all claiming? Like am I crazy or is the fact I tried to shoot Onion N1 not even a little bit relevant? I don't see how claiming hurts and I want to have all the info I can.

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Onion can you claim dammit?

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Prodging bc I have a busy weekend and there's no rush til I get some more info.

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Zzz

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Meh.

Cheeky not claiming is sus, maybe they're an SS who wants to be cheeky "heh" with their ultimatum if I hammer them. But if they were really SS we could just force T3 to hammer them.

On the other hand, I shot onion from my gut read and they haven't tickled my town bone either.

I'll just put us out of the misery of a B&S game with very little brass or shrapnel.

VOTE: T3