Open 846: Murmurings in the Fortress (Game over!)

[imaginality]

I kinda think if Buldge is scum he may realize the setup can’t be broken. And the more we talk setup versus groupings the more advantageous it is for scum?

The only way we don’t have a d2 (which is good) is if there are 6 scum and all the town collaborate on one pillar making a swap impossible. Otherwise due to pigeonhole we likely have a day two and can analyze from the swaps.

So this d1 kinda feels like a big RVS to me.

I agree the chances of their being six scum and us managing to get three town in the same location is pretty low. To me that makes it better to rush the location assignment today so scum can't influence selection too much (compared to getting into the same location as a towny they've buddied).

This ship has sailed but I was going to suggest we agreed to go to locations in alphabetical name order, but not actually vote ourselves into them for a few days. Because I'd be keen to see how people interacted knowing who they will be with D2 (barring swaps). It could also limit scum's options for who they swap. (I know that analysing the swap will be quite wifomy but eh, I like trying to unravel that stuff).

So even though the location assignment hasn't been random, we still have the same effect that people are still somewhat aware now of who they'll be with D2. So I think there's value in letting D1 play out longer.

[imaginality]

i think this setup is broken, can't we just wait for everyone to post and then count how many of them are scum? 1 by my count so far

can you go into the scum pt and tell me how many friends do you have there?

do we know if theres daytalk???

This post is pretty bad.

[imaginality]

Hearth: 3 (MathBlade, DkKoba, imaginality)

let's go imagi

send Koba/Mathblade to kingdom come

do it big

We've got like 9 days, chill madi.

That also goes for Koba too.

I'm mostly around for the next six hours or so.

This whole Pooky going hard on Koba thing makes me want to see Pooky flip before I have to lock in a vote for Hearth so I know whether Pooky's town or scum.

On the one hand, scum!Pooky doesn't gain much from making me misvote Conspiracy as it just gains 1 point for scum, whereas persuading a townie to misvote No Conspiracy gains 3 points. So I'd feel warier of someone trying to convince me (or someone else) about No Conspiracy.

Then again, if it turns out Atrium is pure and Bunker is too, all scum!Pooky can do regarding those other ocations is try to convince people to misvote Conspiracy.

I currently have a gut feel for all three locations, gonna reread in a bit to see if my future self agrees.

[imaginality]

Oh yep I got Atrium and Hearth mixed up there.

[imaginality]

A correct conspiracy vote from either hearth or Atrium leaves bunker in a winning state

Not if you're scum.

[imaginality]

For me, Meg's posts at post 100 and post 176, combined with the Pooky stuff, seem to me to fit with a possible scumteam of {The Bulge,Meg} in Bunker, {Pooky, Fat Labrador/Enchant (gut says FL but I don't have a strong read either way on either yet)} at Keep, and no conspiracy at Hearth (because of Pooky and Meg both pushing the Conspiracy angle and trying to flip Hearth before they flip themselves).

For me, the main point against this solve is that swapping Pooky out of Bunker was a decision that arguably would make whoever's town in Bunker more suspicious of a conspiracy since that's what Pooky said.
But there's plenty of wifom around all that.

If I'm wrong with the above solve then I'd go with Pooky's theory of Conspiracy Bunker and pure Atrium. Though Pooky's wrong about the probability stuff: Hearth could equally be either Conspiracy or not. I'd probably say more likely not because of Meg pushing it as Conspiracy. Plus I know FMPOV there's only one possible Conspiracy in Hearth.

On either of the above solves, I see Bunker as Conspiracy. I think Meg's early vote is a scum tactic rather than genuine town confidence. Aimed at getting whoever is town in Bunker to vote No Conspiracy.

[imaginality]

im shocked mathblade has decided to townread his buddy koba

absolutely shocking

I'm leaning town on Koba too, Math and I can't both be buddied with him...

I'm interested to hear what Datisi thinks of Hearth as he's my pick for town from Bunker. Similarly Enchant.

If it was simply that Pooky pushing Hearth as Conspiracy I'd see that either way as he could be hoping people don't listen to him after he flips scum (if he does). But the early push from him to get us to speedvote felt genuine. Meg's too. I feel like underlying that push their plan was if one of us votes early (either way) and then when Hearth doesn't flip (in this no-Conspiracy scenario it wouldn't), they could get the others suspecting the first voter is lying scum, so get at least two votes for Conspiracy.

[imaginality]

@Datisi do you still see Hearth as Conspiracy? If so is that still based on Koba witholding reads earlier? If not, what's prompted your change of view?

[imaginality]

I'm leaning town on Koba too, Math and I can't both be buddied with them...

EBWOP, sorry Koba

[imaginality]

I'm interested that The Bulge acquiesced when Datisi asked what the point was of The Bulge giving reasons why Datisi is scum.

The Bulge's other posts come across as smart so I was expecting The Bulge to give the reason that came to mind for me, that it helps persuade other town players to be suspicious of Datisi's reads etc.

Instead The Bulge just said oh yeah there was no benefit to others from making that post. Which seems like scum not thinking with a towny hat on.

[imaginality]

I don't think DkKoba would step back there in 329 as scum. And their desire to keep posting post flip sounds genuine. I'm going to vote No Conspiracy. If I'm wrong then I'm likely wrong about Pooky and Meg too so the flip will help the other locations.

[imaginality]

Sorry, townmates.
Well done, scum.
Thanks for modding, mod.