Open 846: Murmurings in the Fortress (Game over!)

[MathBlade]

Clearly the trolling is present.

VOTE: implosion

Come join us. Be one of us.

[MathBlade]

Not sure how that would work exactly, but if this setup can be broken let’s do it?

The setup says there could 0 mafia so not sure where you’re getting that count?

Are you looking at an outdated setup maybe?

[MathBlade]

I want bulge to explain why he went into bunker with datisi

scum of a feather flock together!?!?

Well I am more curious how Bulge thinks the setup can be broken.

Running calculations on my end it seems like we have to have a D2 no matter what so it’s more about creating good sorts.

[MathBlade]

I kinda think if Buldge is scum he may realize the setup can’t be broken. And the more we talk setup versus groupings the more advantageous it is for scum?

The only way we don’t have a d2 (which is good) is if there are 6 scum and all the town collaborate on one pillar making a swap impossible. Otherwise due to pigeonhole we likely have a day two and can analyze from the swaps.

So this d1 kinda feels like a big RVS to me.

[MathBlade]

Heck I only care for doing the math probability.

It’s a fun math problem. I needed a fun game after (redacted shit I don’t wanna talk about).

[MathBlade]

So I am gonna be kinda shitposty which is shitposty for me.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Hearth

Give me a nice warm hearth for Numbers.

[MathBlade]

not much, A full area forming already is .... something.
VOTE: Atrium
Looking at this atm

What are you looking at? Why did you decide an empty room?

[MathBlade]

It gives me the most insight to my neighbors because they have to choose me rather than the other way around

Damn now I wish I wish in a hood with you Sads.

[MathBlade]

I can't believe Koba hasn't posted 25 times by now

maybe they rolled scum and are hiding from me in absolute fear

I am sick and i was napping all day >.>

I hope you’re feeling better.

[MathBlade]

Then vote Atrium and conspiracy? Or join me (if you’re town) so there’s a no conspiracy hood?

I think we learn a lot from who scum switch i think

[MathBlade]

labrador scum

Says the one who doesn’t appreciate the musical stylings of George Michael

Don’t worry I am a okay with my quiet hearthy fire.

I will just spread out with all my math and probabilities.

I am not sad or anything

*sniffles*

[MathBlade]

Then vote Atrium and conspiracy? Or join me (if you’re town) so there’s a no conspiracy hood?

I think we learn a lot from who scum switch i think

i'm reading this in like a challenge-issuing tone almost. sort of a soft defense of labrador, like "oh yea labrador is scum eh? then do something about it"

am i off track about the tone here or what?

On and off

It’s more with all the jokiness reads are harder.

If Pooky is convinced Dat+you are scum
And Koba is convinced Lab is scum then Koba can just vote Atrium and they can see how swaps happen.

More a daring Koba to sort them.

[MathBlade]

Gonna be AFK a lot tomorrow because work.
Will

shit post

make decent posts if I can.

[MathBlade]

PookyTheMagicalBear

and

MegAzumarill

have swapped locations!

Location Status

Hearth: 3 (MathBlade, DkKoba, imaginality)
Bunker: 3 (Datisi, The Bulge, MegAzumarill)
Atrium: 3 (PookyTheMagicalBear, Fat Labrador, Enchant)

It is now Day Two. Deadline is in 10 days at midnight PST on March 16, in (expired on 2022-03-16 04:00:00).

As a reminder:

I will ignore any declarations made in-thread on day two. To submit a guess, you must PM me.

Pooky said bunker was a conspiracy. Then Pooky was swapped with Meg.
So then if Pooky was town and right Bunker would still be a conspiracy because it would still have at least 2 scum regardless of Meg’s alignment
If Pooky is town and wrong then Meg’s alignment matters.

If Pooky was scum though and Meg was town then bunker would have to not be a conspiracy unless all of Datisi bunker and Pooky were scum.

If Pooky and Meg are both town then each of their respective places stay the same
Same with both scum.

Gonna try some math later on this but that’s the possibilities for the swap

[MathBlade]

Nowhere writed that.

Oooh that’s towny af. Someone doing actual effort.

[MathBlade]

Is this a general player assumption or an enchant specific assumption?

Enchant specific.
Everyone seems to be trolling at start and that struck me as genuine thought.

I think Bulge + Meg is scum in that first hood.
I think scum thought Pooky would vote conspiracy and they only had one scum in there due to Pooky’s quickhammer so they had to get a scum in there to meet the 0/2 rule but then would lose instantly due to conspiracy vote so swapped out Pooky to have a chance.
I think if scum swapped out the scum that would be worse as then Pooky would reconsider reads.

[MathBlade]

Pooky v Meg
TvT and original hood not conspiracy => Why would Pooky ever be swapped that’s free scum points?
TvS => Makes for two scum in Pooky original hood and unless three scum in Meg’s no conspiracy in prior
SvT => Makes for no conspiracy unless Datisi + Bulge both scum
SvS => Round and round she goes nothing changed

Pedit: No you don’t. The game had a reputation of being lazy and you weren’t. So more likely town

[MathBlade]

Little reminder, it's possibility we have no scum at all.

But it's loooooooooooooooooooooow (25%).

12.5%

Ugh...

0/2/4/6

4 options.
25%.
No?

The rules say flip three coins
0 scum requires 3 heads on 3 coins. Odds of that are 1/2*1/2*1/2 * 100% = 12.5%

[MathBlade]

Little reminder, it's possibility we have no scum at all.

But it's loooooooooooooooooooooow (25%).

12.5%

Ugh...

0/2/4/6

4 options.
25%.
No?

The rules say flip three coins
0 scum requires 3 tails on 3 coins. Odds of that are 1/2*1/2*1/2 * 100% = 12.5%

Ebwop

I can type words lmao

[MathBlade]

mafia is not math, stop it

What are you talking about? This entire setup is math. It’s why I joined it. I wanted the math

[MathBlade]

want to hear what other people think of datisi and their arguement atm

It’s kinda whole heartedly tied in with the you and Pooky slot.

Put yourself in my prior post with whatever you alignment is and you have your answer.

If you assume you town then Pooky is more likely scum. Otherwise why does that swap happen? This makes Datisi bulge scum scum.

If we assume you scum then Pooky town makes the most sense because Pooky was gonna vote conspiracy get him out then have a conspiracy?

Like you v Pooky really reads TvS

[MathBlade]

Or SvT I hate my phone

[MathBlade]

Care to elaborate? Confused why the hell you’re shading me red there Meg.

[MathBlade]

That being said i will withhold reading you on purpose now.

scum

gut tells me it's w math rather than imaginality but who knows, really

Your gut needs checking. It’s broken.

[MathBlade]

Your logic is poor and appears posed to make bunker look like a conspiracy, which I don't think is the case due to Datisis's play

What about it is poor?
Seems right to me.

I went through every possibility of you and Pooky that exists. What do you disagree with?

[MathBlade]

Well I'm either way off base and will get scum influence out or I'm correct and we go from there but....

No conspiracy

I ask what about it is poor so I can figure out reads.
Rather than answer Meg goes into “Well I guess I gotta”

I think I found the scum in Pooky and Meg.

[MathBlade]

Your logic is poor and appears posed to make bunker look like a conspiracy, which I don't think is the case due to Datisis's play

What about it is poor?
Seems right to me.

I went through every possibility of you and Pooky that exists. What do you disagree with?

You referenced back to your old post which was basically nothing (there's either a conspiracy or not, who knew) except you removed the possibility of the group being T/T/T

No I didn’t.
I explicitly asked why scum make that swap as it’s free scum points if they don’t as Pooky votes conspiracy.

You can die
Whatever Meg is in is a conspiracy

[MathBlade]

You need to PM this, not write publically.

I have but still announcing because it means others should wait until it resolves for more info.



If I am in a conspiracy I remove 2 scum voices and a wrong one so I'm fine with that

Lol this is Meg fleeing the game because she’s busted

[MathBlade]

I gotta go now but will check in later but Meg is like obvScum like lmao

[MathBlade]

math just solve within your own area please

How the hell am I supposed to do that with a lurker gone? I really have to go and will check this later

[MathBlade]

if datisi is town then bunker is triple town

so why would scum swap me out of bunker when its triple town and im pounding the table on nuking bunker?

Agreed.

This is the dilemma I am in.

Tonality is saying one thing

But strategy another

Sorry I have had RL come up

Will do something more content y later.

[MathBlade]

is the fact that the game is dead a sign that there's a lot of conspiracy going on? :thonk:

I haven’t submitted anything yet because RL sucks. So I am taking things slow. Will look later tonight but no reason to rush things.

[MathBlade]

Sorry I have been off the walls trying to prep for age increment day and overtime coming up which is going to be ridiculous.

[MathBlade]

Hearth: 3 (MathBlade, DkKoba (Conspiracy), imaginality)
Bunker: 3 (Datisi, The Bulge, MegAzumarill (No Conspiracy))
Atrium: 3 (PookyTheMagicalBear, Fat Labrador, Enchant)


So, because DkKuba yoloed it becomes a bit harder.

I think i need to make decision about Atrium and others need to wait before yoloing. If Atrium ends up resolved right and we get 3 points, but not win instantly, then we know someone from DkKuba/Meg fucked up or scum. DkKuba could fuck up as both alignments, Meg only could fuck up as scum.


So now. Choice. Love choices, especially when it's not me doing them.
Duuuuuh.

Pooky sell me on Koba scum.

Not seeing it.

[MathBlade]

oh rofl its in 1 week

i sleep


mathblade and imaginality talk moar

I am kinda thinking maybe hood is all town.

[MathBlade]

I have submitted No conspiracy. I pretty much have imaginality as lock town and don’t see that changing. The rest to me is fluff.

[MathBlade]

mb if I'm right and you're wrong, then me submitting conspiracy puts the scores level which will mean that bunker is gonna decide the game, are you still sure on datisi scum?

These are words in sentences.

I have no idea what scores level means.

I think all I can do is focus on my own group.

I think that is pure and have submitted such.

[MathBlade]

imaginality sounds like scum cuz they r stiff as a board

koba is barely sorting so scum

mathblade has a hard volume tell hes barely posting and seems to not care

honestly all three of you look sxummy as fk to me

Lol that is not a tell.

My volume is down overall because of (thing I won’t say involving Condos) and this is Conspiracy not mafia.

[MathBlade]

Can we have anyone who has received acknowledgement if their pick say so in bold so we have clear claims because I don't follow atm.
For example:

I submitted town and was acknowledged

I submitted no conspiracy and acknowledged

[MathBlade]

I think that mainly I became apathetic due to reasons and I am glad I could still scum okay but yeah my wim wasn’t where I wanted

Good work to Pooky for calling me out

[MathBlade]

Koba Enchant and Fat Lab carried

Gg all

[MathBlade]

Issa *spooky voice* myyyyyysssssteeeeerrrrryyyyyyyy

One that should never be solved unless ….

(Joke incoming)

I know! You’re an alt of puppy lab!