Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[fireisredsir]

Ari also allowed fire to lead d3, which isn’t really something you expect scum to do.

tbf she would specifically expect me to expect her not to do that as scum and that would be a reason why she might. i think if she was scum she knew bell was going down that day and didn't mind sheeping on a test that was already lost. so i don't think it's clearing in this case

but again, if she had that mindset, then why even pick furtive over someone else?

[fireisredsir]

yea like if she's sacrificing bell i think she just puts him up against me or you or GL who isn't going to get eliminated and is kinda leading things

but RR/roden team might not have picked up on how unlikely it was for bell to win that test

[fireisredsir]

yea in general i agree. ari has talked in the past about how as scum she mostly just wants to yeet townies and doesn't care much about how she looks doing it. it's possible she'd go out of her way to break that preconception, but i think it's a p big leap to see her as scum here anyway

[fireisredsir]

it would make me feel better if you reread :>

i feel reasonably confident but i don't want to miss anything

[fireisredsir]

i will also reread to see how rat played d2 until now just to make sure i feel good about that fitting, since tbh i was mostly binning them as scum and didn't look that closely

[fireisredsir]

i don't feel any need to rush until we're at a consensus, so im not gonna vote until everyone is ready, but im in the same place p much

gonna reread from d2 now tho, ive mostly focused on d1

[fireisredsir]

ok yea on d2 im remembering how much i disliked the way rat was using a preflip on vulture and hiding behind loki to shift their read over towards voting dann

it also came at a time when there were higher numbers leaning kuti, including bell and roden. ari did end up going for dann as well, but it came a lot later, she didn't really do much to influence in the early stages of d2

[fireisredsir]

i think Bell/Dann are S/S and this game is basically over

I agree zomg, with RR/Vivax for the third.

RadicalRat? How so?

Feels like they're deliberately positioning themselves to align with certain players rather than natural thought process and see if people agree.

this is exactly what RR was doing and may be why furtive got put up against bell

[fireisredsir]

ok furtive was actually on the right track d2, with a bell/RR solve in 1207 and looking for the third, and mentioning roden as a possibility in the next post. he just was wrong on dann

so while at least GL and I had a pretty similar solve, we were less vocal about it at the time, so it makes a lot of sense that scum would feel threatened by furtive there

i don't think ari would feel threatened by him at all, and there were plenty of others to kill who were suspicious of roden

i still think GL is the better kill since he at least implied the correct solve as well in 1216, but idk. maybe they also thought that furtive at least had a chance of losing the test, and that made it worth it

[fireisredsir]

im also not really sure if scum ari floats the idea of sheeping me on kuti and then turns around and keeps pushing hard for dann

but it is true that her big posts on why we should vote dann and why kuti was town came right as it felt like i was starting to get through to GL, and the loki switches back to kuti, and suddenly kuti might be the lim

so it is exactly perfect timing for scum to come in big and take control of the thread to drag things back towards dann. so that is still concerning for me, but it's not enough

[fireisredsir]

reading d3 with all of us assuming scum roden im really not sure how we all just managed to talk ourselves out of it d4 lol

[fireisredsir]

ari played d4 very well if she's scum

[fireisredsir]

eh ok im not as confident as id like to be, but im pretty sure it's just RR

it just looks to me like RR spent all of the testing phase trying their best to buddy loki. i don't get much feeling of behind the scenes solving from them

ok GL your turn

[fireisredsir]

i think it had a lot more to do with greeting, but unimportant right now

[fireisredsir]

agreed in general on ari. even the reasons i have to doubt are less strong for me than the reasons i could also apply to GL if that was the choice we were making, and now GL is confirmed town. so they're not points that do enough for me to change my mind

i just like considering all possibilities

[fireisredsir]

Anyway shouldn‘t I possibly expect you both to be the same person? You refrain from voting together
So it‘s GL who needs convincing here

Btw, absolutely incredible what you can pull off, the problem is that you got a bunch of doppelgangers lol
I don‘t think I have free will in this matter

i don't think i have the energy to be both loki and myself. that would be a lot

[fireisredsir]

and the thing with Ari is their early game is just so accurate, all suspicion on scum, no real misfires of note or significance

if she's town it's an absolutely impeccable D1 from her, alllmost unbelievably so. if it were a lesser player I'd say informed, but, on the other hand there were a lot of scum being pretty scummy D1

i think it's not at all unbelievable, she only made 2 real pushes and in a game with 5 scum i think 2/2 accuracy is very possible. she's also just good at finding scum d1

i mean im town and starting from around page 10, i went roden -> kitty -> vivax -> kuti -> kitty -> kuti -> bell -> kitty

i had wrong pushes on vivax and greeting, but by eod i had them as town and my poe of 7 had all 5 scum. and im not trying to brag (ok i am a little bit lol), i wasn't alone in that, dann had similar accuracy, you did, a lot of town did. i think this was just kind of a game where most of town correctly poe'd out the scum on d1

and i think that scum ari, if she had seen that was happening, would be a lot more hesitant to bus and commit to having to rely on getting 2 of kuti, roden, and bell out the door while also escaping at the end herself. that just seems like a nearly impossible task from the position that scum was in d1. i think that's why scum was desperate to save kitty, they went all in and piled 4 on the vivax wagon bc they were already in such a bad spot, they might as well gamble it all

bussing kitty that hard really only makes sense if scum feels like they can get a comfortable amount of cred out of it so that they can escape. i don't think scum ari would be comfortable with the chances of scum winning entering d2. and if she needs 2 of kuti/bell/roden to escape, why not pull one more of them with her onto kitty? kuti and roden voted vivax long after ari had started the kitty push and was demanding kitty votes in thread

[fireisredsir]

that's also part of why i got worried about vulture in the previous test. bc a world with a team of kitty/bell/kuti/vulture + [GL, Ari] was actually scarily believable, way more than if it was roden. in that world, hard bus kitty, assume bell is gonna die, and spend most of your energy fighting to get kuti out. then you can put vulture up against roden or RR and probably win

but if roden is actually the scum there then that idea kinds falls apart and the consensus scumreads are just too accurate for it to be worth bussing

[fireisredsir]

yeh I agree with you fire, not sure if you got to the rest of my posts yet or not haha

I'm ready to vote Rat and end it but just wanted to see if anyone had any other last thoughts on what I said

yea ik im more just thinking out loud atp, and trying to cover all bases of possible paranoia

im ready as well

[fireisredsir]

wew wp ari

[fireisredsir]

def agree that the biggest point of failure felt like where we went wrong on vulture. i think we were just a little too comfortable

it was a fun setup, prob some of the most stressful/suspenseful times waiting for a flip to come through that ive experienced. every decision had a lot of weight to it bc every time you have a guaranteed chance of voting out scum. and so if you're wrong it just hurts that much more

idk how it is on balance, i think d1 went generally pretty badly for scum even with ari basically clearing herself off it, and scum were consensus poe'd out, we just didn't stick to that well enough. so it kinda feels like if scum had a better d1 then they would just sweep this? but idk, if we were a town that was better at sticking to our guns then we would have swept, so. maybe that means it is balanced lol

[fireisredsir]

also i apologize fire i was convinced you were scum for so long

lmao, im excited to read the dt

[fireisredsir]

i think the game would have looked a lot different if there was 1 extra scum voice and 1 less town voice in every day phase, id be interested to see how a game would play out with a town death d1

with no bussing, every single town would have to vote correctly to win, every time. 6v4, 5v3, 4v2, 3v1, and 2v0. and they have to do it 3 times. ofc there would be some bussing, but also town is unlikely to all be correct

[fireisredsir]

very glad to see there was oreo discourse in the dead thread, everyone ignored me here :<

dann had the right gut instinct on it though that is 100% a post i make as scum

[fireisredsir]

<3 ari

you were nuts, i didn't go into it at the time but the d4 was so good. idk if it was planned to bait RR into turning on you awkwardly or if that just worked out conveniently but that removed one of the biggest barriers for you which was why would anyone pick town you for a test

v impressed with the crazy plays you and the team pulled off, i did for a while think that if anyone was the scum mastermind behind it all it would be you, but in the end it was too wild for me to believe

[fireisredsir]

still wild to me that kuti and roden both voted vivax

that was the point that sold me

just seems crazy to rely on being able to win that roden test, but hey, i guess it worked